CO2 Controls Earth’s Temperature

Atmospheric CO2  acts as Earth’s thermostat: Study

A new modeling study shows that the planet’s temperature is controlled by the atmospheric CO2, NASA says.

Various atmospheric components differ in their contributions to the greenhouse effect, some through feedbacks and some through forcings. Without carbon dioxide and other non-condensing greenhouse gases, water vapor and clouds would be unable to provide the feedback mechanisms that amplify the greenhouse effect. Source: NASA GISS

Water vapor and clouds are the major contributors to Earth’s greenhouse effect, but a new atmosphere-ocean climate modeling study shows that the planet’s temperature ultimately depends on the atmospheric level of carbon dioxide.

The study, conducted by Andrew Lacis and colleagues at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York, examined the nature of Earth’s greenhouse effect and clarified the role that greenhouse gases and clouds play in absorbing outgoing infrared radiation. Notably, the team identified non-condensing greenhouse gases — such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, and chlorofluorocarbons — as providing the core support for the terrestrial greenhouse effect.

Without non-condensing greenhouse gases, water vapor and clouds would be unable to provide the feedback mechanisms that amplify the greenhouse effect. The study’s results will be published Friday, Oct. 15 in Science.

A companion study led by GISS co-author Gavin Schmidt that has been accepted for publication in the Journal of Geophysical Research shows that carbon dioxide accounts for about 20 percent of the greenhouse effect, water vapor and clouds together account for 75 percent, and minor gases and aerosols make up the remaining five percent. However, it is the 25 percent non-condensing greenhouse gas component, which includes carbon dioxide, that is the key factor in sustaining Earth’s greenhouse effect. By this accounting, carbon dioxide is responsible for 80 percent of the radiative forcing that sustains the Earth’s greenhouse effect.

The climate forcing experiment described in Science was simple in design and concept — all of the non-condensing greenhouse gases and aerosols were zeroed out, and the global climate model was run forward in time to see what would happen to the greenhouse effect. Without the sustaining support by the non-condensing greenhouse gases, Earth’s greenhouse effect collapsed as water vapor quickly precipitated from the atmosphere, plunging the model Earth into an icebound state — a clear demonstration that water vapor, although contributing 50 percent of the total greenhouse warming, acts as a feedback process, and as such, cannot by itself uphold the Earth’s greenhouse effect.

“Our climate modeling simulation should be viewed as an experiment in atmospheric physics, illustrating a cause and effect problem which allowed us to gain a better understanding of the working mechanics of Earth’s greenhouse effect, and enabled us to demonstrate the direct relationship that exists between rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and rising global temperature,” Lacis said.

The study ties in to the geologic record in which carbon dioxide levels have oscillated between approximately 180 parts per million during ice ages, and about 280 parts per million during warmer interglacial periods. To provide perspective to the nearly 1 C (1.8 F) increase in global temperature over the past century, it is estimated that the global mean temperature difference between the extremes of the ice age and interglacial periods is only about 5 C (9 F).

“When carbon dioxide increases, more water vapor returns to the atmosphere. This is what helped to melt the glaciers that once covered New York City,” said co-author David Rind, of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. “Today we are in uncharted territory as carbon dioxide approaches 390 parts per million in what has been referred to as the ‘superinterglacial.'”

“The bottom line is that atmospheric carbon dioxide acts as a thermostat in regulating the temperature of Earth,” Lacis said. “The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has fully documented the fact that industrial activity is responsible for the rapidly increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. It is not surprising then that global warming can be linked directly to the observed increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide and to human industrial activity in general.”

More Reading

• GISS Science Brief: The Thermostat that Controls Earth’s Temperature
• GISS Science Brief: Taking the Measure of the Greenhouse Effect
• Water Vapor Confirmed as Major Player in Climate Change

by Kathryn Hansen, NASA’s Earth Science News

Related Links:

• FEWW CO2e Links

On the Lookout for Atmospheric Blocking

Climate Info Public release  by University of Missouri-Columbia

Warmer planet temperatures could cause longer-lasting weather patterns

MU researchers are studying whether high levels of carbon dioxide and higher global temperatures could lead to more frequent atmospheric blocking

Whether it’s never-ending heat waves or winter storms, atmospheric blocking can have a significant impact on local agriculture, business and the environment. Although these stagnant weather patterns are often difficult to predict, University of Missouri researchers are now studying whether increasing planet temperatures and carbon dioxide levels could lead to atmospheric blocking and when this blocking might occur, leading to more accurate forecasts.

Tony Lupo, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Missouri, is studying atmospheric blocking and how this weather pattern could be increasing due to global warming.

“In this research, we’re trying to see if increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the resulting atmospheric warming will affect the onset and duration of future blocking events,” said Tony Lupo, professor and chair of the atmospheric science department at the MU College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources. “We’re hoping that the research will add cues that could help fellow forecasters better predict blocking and warn people in cases of long-lasting, severe weather.”

Atmospheric blocking occurs between 20-40 times each year and usually lasts between 8-11 days, Lupo said. Although they are one of the rarest weather events, blocking can trigger dangerous conditions, such as a 2003 European heat wave that caused 40,000 deaths. Blocking usually results when a powerful, high-pressure area gets stuck in one place and, because they cover a large area, fronts behind them are blocked. Lupo believes that heat sources, such as radiation, condensation, and surface heating and cooling, have a significant role in a blocking’s onset and duration. Therefore, planetary warming could increase the frequency and impact of atmospheric blocking.

“It is anticipated that in a warmer world, blocking events will be more numerous, weaker and longer-lived,” Lupo said. “This could result in an environment with more storms. We also anticipate the variability of weather patterns will change dramatically over some parts of the world, such as North America, Europe and Asia, but not in others.”

Lupo, in collaboration with Russian researchers from the Russian Academy of Sciences, will simulate atmospheric blocking using computer models that mirror known blocking events, then introduce differing carbon dioxide environments into the models to study how the dynamics of blocking events are changed by increased atmospheric temperatures. The project is funded by the US Civilian Research and Development Foundation – one of only 16 grants awarded by the group this year. He is partnering with Russian meteorologists whose research is being supported by the Russian Federation for Basic Research.

Lupo’s research has been published in several journals, including the Journal of Climate and Climate Dynamics. He anticipates that final results of the current study will be available in 2011.

Contact: Christian Basi
BasiC@missouri.edu
University of Missouri-Columbia

Related Links:

• Climate Locked into ‘Unending’ El Niño?
• UK Flooding
• Speaking of El Niño, OLR Anomalies in Australia

Ten Climate Change Lies, Myths and Misconceptions

Climate Change Lie #10

Climategate: Courtesy of rent-a-scientist crowd at UK’s East Anglia University (UEA) who dabble on both sides of the fence

The new, fool the uninformed public disinformation go along the following lines:

What Climate Change? Warm weather anywhere? Ice melting? Drought and Deluge? When was the last time there was even heavy rain other than the Monsoon in India? El Niño was a once in a lifetime affair that occurred in the last century!

David Holland, an electrical engineer [graduated when the mains still carried DC current] saying that it was “like David versus Goliath” as he took on the rest of the British scientific community:

“These guys called climate scientists have not done any more physics or chemistry than I did. A lifetime in engineering gives you a very good antenna. It also cures people of any self belief they cannot be wrong. You clear up a lot of messes during a lifetime in engineering. I could be wrong on global warming – I know that – but the guys on the other side don’t believe they can ever be wrong.”

David Holland, the Lech Walesa of climate change denialland, is seeking prosecutions against some of Britain’s “most eminent academics” for allegedly holding back information in breach of disclosure laws. Photo: DAVID ROSE. Source: The Daily Telegraph, UK. Image may be subject to copyright.

He’s right about one thing: Don’t buy a second-hand car from the British climatologist, economist, Cambridge physicists, Oxford wranglers, UEA hagglers…

Some of our UK-based colleagues had previously expressed their distrust of

• British “climatologists” (starting with Lord Stern)
• The University of East Anglia boffins, especially their climatologists and modelers
• Some of the senior staff at Hadley Climate Research Unit

Sure enough in the time old James Bond tradition, a spy who came in from the cold, a true professional who was not commercially motivated:

• Guessed that leading British scientists at the University of East Anglia were manipulating climate change data. [Who told him the boffins were on to something?]
• Managed to hack the email accounts of two dozen scientists (hacker had nothing to do with the Virgin empire) at UEA. [Who told him how to break into the  UEA computer.]
• Found incriminating evidence that Climate Change was a great hoax. [Who told him where to find exactly what he was looking for on the computer?]
• Located a Russian server [somehow that was meant to lend more street cred] to host the stolen emails [And NO! Neither the British mega-business, nor the British govt agents played any part in that.]

Singlehandedly, the Lech Walesa—he was an electrical engineer, too—of climate change denialland, shot a big hole through the climate change theory, mortally wounding the discredited myth [sic.] As a UK blogger proudly put it:

Climategate: the final nail in the coffin of ‘Anthropogenic Global Warming!’

Conclusion: Climate Change Lie #10 is all about doing business as usual.

As Warren Buffett, the Sausage from Omaha, put it:

“If the world were falling apart I’d still invest in companies.”

Related Links:

• Decadal Temp Avg Up by 74 pct on 1990s
• El Niño
• Drought and Deluge
• Famine in China, India If Himalayan Melt Continues
• Drought and Deluge: Major Mechanisms Of Collapse
• British Scientists Are Politicians First
• What Florida Might Look Like in 2014

British Scientists Are Politicians First

Thought For the Day:

The Main Stream British Scientists Are Brainwashed by Big Brother!

The prospects of prestigious, lucrative government positions with four-letter titles after their names would often persuade them to swear the earth was flat.

Related Links:

• Head of British climate institute, Phil Jones, steps down over hacked global warming e-mail flap

• These con artists are expressing surprise at the extent of the Antarctica and Greenland coastal ice thinning to get more cash and condoms.

Arctic Warmest in 2000 Years

You Like it Hot ?

“Recent Warming Reverses Long-Term Arctic Cooling”

New research shows that the Arctic reversed a long-term cooling trend and began warming rapidly in recent decades. The blue line shows estimates of Arctic temperatures over the last 2,000 years, based on proxy records from lake sediments, ice cores and tree rings. The green line shows the long-term cooling trend. The red line shows the recent warming based on actual observations. A 2000-year transient climate simulation with NCAR’s Community Climate System Model shows the same overall temperature decrease as does the proxy temperature reconstruction, which gives scientists confidence that their estimates are accurate. (Courtesy Science, modified by UCAR.) Caption UCAR.

Human activity forced the 1990s Arctic temperatures to warmest level of any decade in at least 2,000 years, a new research finds. “The study, which incorporates geologic records and computer simulations, provides new evidence that the Arctic would be cooling if not for greenhouse gas emissions that are overpowering natural climate patterns.” Researches led by Northern Arizona University and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

The scientists reconstructed summer temperatures across the Arctic over the last 2,000 years by decade, extending a view of climate far beyond the 400 years of Arctic-wide records previously available at that level of detail. They found that thousands of years of gradual Arctic cooling, related to natural changes in Earth’s orbit, would continue today if not for emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.

“This result is particularly important because the Arctic, perhaps more than any other region on Earth, is facing dramatic impacts from climate change,” says NCAR scientist David Schneider, one of the co-authors. “This study provides us with a long-term record that reveals how greenhouse gases from human activities are overwhelming the Arctic’s natural climate system.”

Darrell Kaufman of Northern Arizona University, the lead author and head of the synthesis project, says the results indicate that recent warming is more anomalous than previously documented.

“Scientists have known for a while that the current period of warming was preceded by a long-term cooling trend,” says Kaufman. “But our reconstruction quantifies the cooling with greater certainty than before.”

How Greenhouse gases overtook  a natural cycle

The new study is the first to quantify a pervasive cooling across the Arctic on a decade-by-decade basis that is related to an approximately 21,000-year cyclical wobble in Earth’s tilt relative to the Sun. Over the last 7,000 years, the timing of Earth’s closest pass by the Sun has shifted from September to January. This has gradually reduced the intensity of sunlight reaching the Arctic in summertime, when Earth is farther from the Sun.

Researchers discovered that  summer temperatures in the Arctic cooled at an average rate of about 0.2 degrees Celsius (0 .36 degrees Fahrenheit) per thousand years because of the reduced energy from the Sun. “The temperatures eventually bottomed out during the “Little Ice Age,” a period of widespread cooling that lasted roughly from the 16th to the mid-19th centuries.”

Even though the orbital cycle that produced the cooling continued, it was overwhelmed in the 20th century by human-induced warming. The result was summer temperatures in the Arctic by the year 2000 that were about 1.4 degrees C (2.5 degrees F) higher than would have been expected from the continued cyclical cooling alone.

“If it hadn’t been for the increase in human-produced greenhouse gases, summer temperatures in the Arctic should have cooled gradually over the last century,” says Bette Otto-Bliesner, an NCAR scientist who participated in the study.

Natural archives of Arctic climate

Researches reconstructed Arctic temperatures over the last 2,000 years using three types of natural evidence. Each of the three “field-based data” was indicative of the response, which ” different component of the Arctic’s climate system to changes in temperature.”

These data included temperature reconstructions published by the study team earlier this year. The reconstructions were based on evidence provided by sediments from Arctic lakes, which yielded two kinds of clues: changes in the abundance of silica remnants left behind by algae, which reflect the length of the growing season, and the thickness of annually deposited sediment layers, which increases during warmer summers as deposits from glacial meltwater increase.

Research also incorporated readings from previously published studies including glacial ice and tree rings that had been calibrated against the temperature records.

The scientists compared the temperatures inferred from the field-based data with simulations run with the Community Climate System Model, a computer model of global climate based at NCAR. The model’s estimate of the reduction of seasonal sunlight in the Arctic and the resulting cooling was consistent with the analysis of the lake sediments and other natural archives. These results give scientists more confidence in computer projections of future Arctic temperatures.

“This study provides a clear example of how increased greenhouse gases are now changing our climate, ending at least 2,000 years of Arctic cooling,” says NCAR scientist Caspar Ammann, a co-author.

The new study follows previous work showing that temperatures over the last century warmed almost three times faster in the Arctic than elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere. This phenomenon, called Arctic amplification, occurs as highly reflective Arctic ice and snow melt away, allowing dark land and exposed ocean to absorb more sunlight.

“Because we know that the processes responsible for past Arctic amplification are still operating, we can anticipate that it will continue into the next century,” says Gifford Miller of the University of Colorado at Boulder, a member of the study team. “Consequently, Arctic warming will continue to exceed temperature increases in the rest of the Northern Hemisphere, resulting in accelerated loss of land ice and an increased rate of sea level rise, with global consequences.”

The Study will be published in the September 4 edition of Science

Related Links:

• Canceling Your Life Insurance Policy with Nature
• Another Ocean Record Broken
• Alaska: One Fire Away From Exporting Charcoal
• US glaciers shrinking dramatically
• Alaska on Fire

• Arctic Tundra 4ºC Hotter Since 1970
• US Gov Releases Intelligence Images of Arctic Ice
• Arctic sea ice has thinned dramatically
• Strong Quake Strikes Baffin Bay
• The Deadly Dozen, the Dirty Dozen, the Dozen Dozen

• Who is afraid of melting ice sheets?
• Eco-Terrorists on Thin Ice
• Emerging Patterns of Vanishing Ice Shelves
• Global warming worse than predicted: Surprised?
• Climate Change Finals – CO2: 392 Human Chances: 0

• Warmer temperatures destroy forests faster
• Earth’s Climate: A Solar Powered System
• Ice Melt in Alaska, Antarctica, Greenland Accelerating
• Guess what, the Arctic temps are 5 ºC warmer!
• Arctic Sea Ice: Likely Record-Low Volume

• Environmental issues, Big Oil, politics, CORRUPTION, Sarah Palin, even the moose, beluga whale and polar bear …

• Carbon Footprint of Your Dollar
• World Problems: The Root Cause Matrix
• First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities

Alaska: One Fire Away From Exporting Charcoal

Images of Day:

Forest Fires Burn Massive Scars on Alaska’s Face

Background: Alaska on Fire AND First the Beetles Attacked!

Human activity is ultimately responsible for the intensity and frequency of most present-day forest fires like Alaska’s; to call them ‘wildfires,’ therefore, is disingenuous and unintelligent.

Burn Scars Near Confluence of Yukon and Tanana Rivers, Alaska
infrared-enhanced (visible, shortwave-IR, and near-IR)                           [acquired August 9, 2009]

natural-color                                                                                           [acquired August 9, 2009]

Cool, wet weather over the second weekend of August moderated fire activity in interior Alaska. When the skies cleared on August 9, 2009, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured these images. Fires that had been churning out thick clouds of smoke the previous week were quiet; according to the daily situation report from the Alaska Interagency Coordination Center on August 11, 2009, however, the fires were still smoldering.

The top image is an infrared-enhanced view of the area at the confluence of the Tanana River with the Yukon, west of Fairbanks, made from a combination of visible, shortwave-infrared, and near-infrared light. Vegetation is bright green, water is dark blue (nearly black in marsh pools), and burned areas are brick red. The largest fire in the state, the Railbelt Complex, is partially hidden by clouds at image right. The lower image shows a natural-color (photo-like) view of the area. The muddy waters of the two rivers are light brown, and different kinds of vegetation, including spruce forests and muskeg, appear in shades of green. The burned areas are dark brown. NASA image courtesy the MODIS Rapid Response Team. Caption by Rebecca Lindsey.

Fires in Interior Alaska [acquired August 3, 2009]

Red flag warnings, cautioning residents that weather conditions were dangerously favorable for the rapid growth of wildfires, were in place for much of eastern Alaska on August 3, 2009, when the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this image. Places where the sensor detected actively burning fires are marked with red dots. Hundreds of thousands of acres were burning at the time of this image. The largest fire, the Railbelt Complex, had grown to more than 481,000 acres as of August 4, and the southern perimeter of the fire was active along a 12-mile front, according to the morning situation report from the Alaska Interagency Coordination Center.

The large image provided above is at MODIS’ maximum spatial resolution (level of detail). Twice-daily images of interior Alaska are available from the MODIS Rapid Response Team in additional resolutions and formats, including a false-color version that highlights the location of burn scars and georeferenced images that can be used in Google Earth.  NASA images courtesy the MODIS Rapid Response Team. All captions by Rebecca Lindsey.

Related Links:

• Alaska on Fire
• First the Beetles Attacked!

• Warmer temperatures destroy forests faster

• 3 million acres of spruce killed in Alaska in 15 years
• British Columbia Forests Plagued by Beetle
• Drunken Forest

• California ‘Mojavefied’ by 2011?

• Ice Melt in Alaska, Antarctica, Greenland Accelerating
• Canada’s Ice Shelves Lose Quarter of their Cover
• Arctic ice cover second-lowest on record

• Arctic Tundra 4ºC Hotter Since 1970
• US Impacts of Global Climate Change
• Earth’s scars of human destruction visible: astronaut

• Index of Human Impact on Nature (HIoN) March 2008
• Marsification of Earth
• Earth’s Collapsing Life Support Systems

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Nuking Earth for Lifestyle
• Giga Trends
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• 286W

• The Root Cause Matrix
• The Economy
• Collapsing Ecosystems

• Index page for Alaska: Environmental issues, Big Oil, politics, CORRUPTION, Sarah Palin, even the moose, beluga whale and polar bear …

Alp-sized mountain range encased in Antarctic ice

A Mountain Range Like the Alps Under the East Antarctic Ice Sheet

A view of the remaining part of the Larsen B ice shelf that extends into the northwest part of the Weddell Sea is seen in this handout photo taken on March 4, 2008. Image: Pedro Skvarca/IAA-DNA/Handout via REUTERS/

Radar and gravity sensors have revealed  details of Gamburtsev subglacial mountains, which was originally detected by Russian scientists 50 years ago at the heart of the East Antarctic ice sheet, Reuters reported.

Image Credit: Zina Deretsky / NSF

“The surprising thing was that not only is this mountain range the size of the Alps, but it looks quite similar to the (European) Alps, with high peaks and valleys,” said Fausto Ferraccioli, a geophysicist at the British Antarctic Survey.

Related Links:

• NSF Press Release: U.S.-led, International Research Team Confirms Alps-like Mountain Range Exists under East Antarctic Ice Sheet
• Antarctica’s Gamburtsev Province Project (AGAP)
• An animation showing how the Gamburtsevs may have caused the ice sheet to grow

Hundreds of millions worldwide face disaster

We import food from New Zealand because there’s no tax on aviation fuel, even though it makes no sense from a planetary standpoint. —Physicist James E. Hansen

“Time is running out to prevent catastrophic consequences from global warming, a leading climate scientist warned a packed audience Thursday at Stanford University.”

Physicist James E. Hansen said hundreds of millions of people will run out of fresh water sources and hundreds of millions of others will be forced to flee their homes by rising sea levels if greenhouse gas emissions stay the same.

[Note: It’s hoped that James Hansen would mention the rapid loss of topsoil in his future lectures.]

“To preserve creation, the planet on which civilization developed, we must draw down carbon dioxide to less than 350 parts per million,” Hansen  said. Read more

[Note: Moderators believe ‘safe’ emission levels are about 260-270 ppm.]

Related Links:

• Is 350 ppm Safe? Hell, NO!
• 350 or 450ppm? Neither, Actually!
• Stern Report: “a great toxic dump of doublespeak in truly Orwellian fashion”

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities

4.5 times more NF3 in atmosphere than thought

Scripps News Release
Scripps Institution of Oceanography

Potent Greenhouse Gas More Prevalent in Atmosphere than Previously Thought

NF3, a greenhouse gas used in manufacture of computer displays, flat panel televisions, microcircuits, solar panels is 17,000 times more powerful at warming the atmosphere than carbon dioxide

Scripps Institution of Oceanography/UC San Diego

Nitrogen trifluoride (NF3), a powerful greenhouse gas, is about 4.5 times more prevalent in the atmosphere than previously thought, say researchers at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego.

[A 3-d Space-filling model of nitrogen trifluoride. ]

Nitrogen trifluoride (NF3), a potent greenhouse gas used in the plasma etching of silicon wafers, has a global warming potential (GWP) 17,000 times greater than CO2 over a 100 year period, and with an estimated atmospheric lifetime of about 750 years.

Atmospheric measurements of nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) were made using new analytical techniques by a team at Scripps shows that the amount of the gas in the atmosphere in 2008 was about 5,400 metric tons, 4.5 times higher than previously thought,  and was increasing at about 11 percent per year.

Geochemistry professor Ray Weiss who lead the research team said: “Accurately measuring small amounts of NF3 in air has proven to be a very difficult experimental problem, and we are very pleased to have succeeded in this effort.”

The research will be published in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) on October 31.

Previously, emissions of NF3 were considered too low to be a significant contributor to global warming and were therefore omitted from the Kyoto Protocol, the agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions signed by 182 countries in 1997.

Environmental Impact of NF3 Gas at Current levels

• NF3 is about 17,000 times more effective a global warming agent than an equivalent mass of CO2.
• Persists five times longer in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide.
• [Fortunately] Contributes only about 0.04 percent [at its current application levels] to the overall global warming caused by the anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions.

Nitrogen trifluoride has been the industries’ preferred alternative to perfluorocarbons, also potent greenhouse gases, as it was thought industrial applications broke down about 98 percent of the NF3 and only about 2 percent of the gas escaped into the atmosphere.  (Source)

Related Links:

• A forecast of the most used “scientific” phrase in 2009 : “We were completely surprised!”

The Largest Antarctic Ozone Hole

Antarctic Ozone Hole Reaches Record High!

September 12, 2008

The area covered by the Antarctic Ozone Hole grew to 27 million km² on September 12, 2008

A Deserving Dedication

The Moderators would like to dedicate this year’s Antarctic ozone hole to the outgoing [hopefully] US president [sic] Mr GW Bush. Furthermore we invite all parties concerned to consider renaming the Antarctic Ozone Hole after GW Bush for his contribution to the worsening state of the world. During his 8-year occupation of White House, Mr Bush caused more damage to the world (environment, climate, humanity, security … ) than anyone else before him.

[It’s hoped that NASA employees responsible for Ozone Hole Watch retain the integrity of all data, and blow the whistle if they find any anomaly in the data sets, this year.]

Images of the Day: Ike has left!

Almost Nothing Left!

A home is left standing among debris from Hurricane Ike September 14, 2008 in Gilchrist, Texas. Floodwaters from Hurricane Ike are reportedly as high as eight feet in some areas causing widespread damage across the coast of Texas. (Photo credit: Smiley N. Pool/AFP/Getty Images). Image may be subject to copyright.

A Private Island in Texas!

Ike leaves devastation in its wake: A house near Winnie, Texas, is cut off by flooding caused by Hurricane Ike. September 14, 2008  (Smiley N. Pool/AFP/Getty Images). Image may be subject to copyright.

End of The Road!

Floodwaters from Hurricane Ike surround houses near Winnie, Texas. September 14, 2008  (Smiley N. Pool/AFP/Getty Images). Image may be subject to copyright.

The Day the Dead ‘Rose’ from their Graves!

Floodwaters brought by Hurricane Ike cover a cemetery in Orange, Texas. September 14, 2008. (Smiley N. Pool/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images). Image may be subject to copyright.

Does your mother shoot moose, too?

Image and title suggested by a reader:

Mother? Moose Murderer and Maverick!

[Just before this woman shot me, I was alive and well, looking forward to running around with my kids all day.] A video tribute to Sarah Palin at the Republican convention was titled “Mother, Moose Hunter, Maverick”. Image may be subject to copyright.

Why do you kill other animals?

Related Links:

• It’s All About Big Oil, Stupid!

• Look me straight in the eye & tell me you can’t …
• Arctic ice cover second-lowest on record
• The real games are in Alaska
• 3 million acres of spruce killed in Alaska in 15 years

• Death by Lethal Pollution
• Bering Sea Drilling Revisited!
• Arctic Marine Mammals on Thin Ice
• Our Oceans Are Dying

• Palin’s Polar Pests Love Their Cubs, Too!
• Mother? Moose Murderer and Maverick!

Hurricane Ike: Who Rubbed the Oil Lamp? [Update 9/12]

Ike has a 78 percent chance of strengthening to a major hurricane before landfall with sustained winds of at least 178km/hr (111mph). ~ FEWW Forecast.

Ike the angry genie is out of the oil lamp!

Targeting Texas for landfall, perhaps Ike  won’t grant too many wishes now without the Monkey’s Paw!

Ike is a very large tropical cyclone. Its hurricane force winds extend outward about 200 km from the center and tropical storm force winds extend about 450 km, covering an area of about 640,000 sq km.

Ike’s latest satellite images show a giant clump of white clouds, together with its outer bands, covering most of the 1.6 million sq km area of Gulf of Mexico basin.

Hurricane Ike regional imagery, 2008.09.12 at 08:45UTC. Centerpoint Latitude: 26:54:30N Longitude: 91:31:08W.

Data Elements: Hurricane Ike is located southeast of Galveston, Texas. This system is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 MPH. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 MPH. Hurricane Ike is a large and powerful storm, quite capable of strengthening before landfall early Saturday.
Observation Device: GOES-12 4 km infrared imagery.
Visualization Date: September 12, 2008 07:37:00 (Credit: NOAA/NESDIS/EVP)

GOES Floater (Updated Image) – Unenhanced – IR CH4 – Date and Time: As indicated on the updated image. Credit NOAA/NHC

Note: As of September 12 – 13:45UTC Image Update, Ike appears to have redeveloped the hurricane eye.

Ike is expected to strengthen to a major hurricane before landfall with sustained wind speeds of at least 178 km/hr, and in all probability the forecast would prove accurate.

However, if Ike fails to strengthen before landfall, it can still cause substantial damage by dumping large amounts of rain, flooding low-lying coastal areas, blowing down trees and road signs, destroying roof structures, doors, windows, curtain walls and mobile homes.

Ike Begins Battering Gulf Coast. A monstrously large, extremely dangerous Hurricane Ike is already affecting the Gulf Coast. NASA’s Aqua spacecraft took this infrared image early Sept. 12. (Sept. 12). Credit: NASA/JPL

A wave breaks over a street sign as Hurricane Ike approaches Galveston, Texas September 12, 2008. REUTERS/Jessica Rinaldi. Image may be subject to copyright.

The storm surge of the nameless hurricane reduced much of Galveston to rubble – and left thousands dead. (AP photo)- Source

100 mph plus winds expected along the upper-Texas coast by midnight, weather should deteriorate earlier (NOAA)

• Source: NHC
• Forecaster: Avila
• Date and Time: Sept 12, 2008 at 15:00UTC

• Hurricane Watch Area: from Morgan City Louisiana to Baffin Bay, Texas.  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast in the warning area later Friday.

• Tropical Storm Warning Area: From south of Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield Texas.  A tropical storm warning is also in effect from east of Morgan City to the Mississippi-Alabama border, including the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.

• Current Location: The center of hurricane Ike was located near latitude 27.2 north, longitude 92.6 west or about 480 km east of Corpus Christi, Texas and about 320 km southeast of Galveston Texas.

• Category and Wind Speed: Maximum sustained winds remain near 165 km/hr with higher gusts.  Ike is a Category 2A hurricane on the FEWW Hurricane Scale (cat 2 on Saffir-Simpson scale), but could reach the coast as a Category Three, major hurricane.  Stronger winds especially in gusts are likely on high rise buildings.

• Direction: Ike is moving toward the west-northwest near 19 km/hr. A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, with a turn toward the north expected on Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of Ike will be very near the upper Texas coast by late Friday or early Saturday. However, because Ike is a very large tropical cyclone, weather will begin to deteriorate along the coastline soon.

• Extent: Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 195 km from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 445 km.
• Estimated minimum central pressure: 954 mb (28.17 inches).

• Storm surge flooding: Coastal storm surge flooding of up to 6 meters (20 feet) with a few spots to about 8 meters (25 feet) above normal tide along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected near and to the east of where the center of Ike makes landfall. The surge extends a greater than usual distance from the center due to the large size of the cyclone. Water levels have already risen by more than 1.5 meter (5 feet) along much of the northwestern gulf coast.

• Rainfall: Ike is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 12 to 25 cm (5 to 10 inches) over eastern Texas and extreme southwestern Louisiana, with isolated amounts of 38 cm (15 inches) possible.

• Isolated tornadoes: Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of southern Louisiana and extreme southern Mississippi.  Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight over portions of southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas.

Six Costliest US Atlantic Hurricanes to Date

Ike Update 9/12: Who Rubbed the Oil Lamp?

21th Century’s Costliest U-S Atlantic Hurricanes to Date:

Note: Hurricane Gustav not included due to cost uncertainty.

(Source: NHC, Wikipedia and others)

See below also for image comparison

Hurricane Ike (2008)

Hurricane Ike regional imagery, 2008.09.11 at 2015Z. Centerpoint Latitude: 23:01:14N Longitude: 88:50:54W.Data Elements: Hurricane Ike is a large and powerful storm, quite capable of strengthening before landfall early Saturday.

Observation Device: GOES-12 1 km visible imagery.
Visualization Date: September 11, 2008 16:50:17
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Hurricane Gustav (2008)

Hurricane Gustav regional imagery, 2008.09.01 at 1515Z. Centerpoint Latitude: 29:21:10N Longitude: 90:59:20W.

Data Elements: Hurricane Gustav has made landfall in Louisiana, just west of New Orleans.
Observation Device: GOES-12 1 km visible imagery
Visualization Date: September 1, 2008 11:56:23

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Hurricane Wilma (2005)

Hurricane Wilma regional imagery, 2005.10.24 at 1815Z. Centerpoint Latitude: 32:54:16N Longitude: 81:06:18W.

Data Elements: See this higher resolution image showing the storm and the intense baroclinic trough over the eastern U.S. that Wilma will interact with in the next few days.
Observation Device: GOES-12 1 km visible imagery.
Visualization Date: October 24, 2005 15:02:23

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Hurricane Rita (2005)

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Hurricane Rita regional imagery, 2005.09.23 at 2115Z. Centerpoint Latitude: 30:12:30N Longitude: 91:51:33W.

Data Elements: See this higher resolution image.
Observation Device: GOES-12 1 km visible imagery.
Visualization Date: September 23, 2005 18:03:03

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Hurricane Ivan (2005)

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Hurricane Ivan regional imagery, 2004.09.15 at 1515Z. Centerpoint Latitude: 27:52:28N Longitude: 87:44:48W.

Observation Device: GOES-12 1 km visible imagery.
Visualization Date: September 15, 2004 11:29:01
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Hurricane Katrina (2005)

.Hurricane Katrina regional imagery, 2005.08.28 at 2115Z. Centerpoint Latitude: 26:52:21N Longitude: 89:05:18W.

Data Elements: A high resolution print image can be found here.
Observation Device: GOES-12 1 km visible imagery.
Visualization Date: August 29, 2008 10:13:07
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Hurricane Charley (2004)

Hurricane Charley regional imagery, 2004.08.13 at 2015Z. Centerpoint Latitude: 26:38:37N Longitude: 82:44:24W.

Data Elements: Charley’s present movement is north, 5 degrees at 17 knots.
Observation Device: GOES-12 1 km visible imagery.
Visualization Date: August 13, 2004 15:58:14
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Hurricane Frances

Hurricane Frances regional imagery, 2004.09.05 at 1615Z. Centerpoint Latitude: 27:55:21N Longitude: 81:06:28W.

Data Elements: Maximum sustained winds are near 90 MPH, with higher wind gusts.
Observation Device: GOES-12 1 km visible imagery.
Visualization Date: September 5, 2004 11:52:18
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Hurricane Andrew (1992)

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Hurricane Andrew was the second most powerful, and the last of three Category 5 hurricanes that made U.S. landfall during the 20th century, after the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 and Hurricane Camille in 1969. Andrew caused 65 deaths. (Cost: $38bn – adjusted 2007 dollars).

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All Images Credit: NOAA/NESDIS/EVP

Unfit for human consumption

Is the EPA selling you anything unfit for human consumption?

EPA and the Dumping of Sewage Sludge on US Farmland

Consumer groups are pressing Congress to regulate against the practice of dumping of toxic sewage sludge on our farmland. “Farmers, scientists and victims of sludge poisoning will go before the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee on Thursday to investigate the Environmental Protections Agency’s role in the sludge dumped on farms and other lands.” (Source)

“We have enough problems with toxic food as it is without having our food grown in toxic soil and derived from animals who have been sickened, often almost to death, because of these toxins,” said Andrew Kimbrell, the executive director of the Center for Food Safety.

What is so toxic about the sewage sludge?

A lot of toxins are found in sewage sludge including:

• E. coli
• Prions (the ones that cause mad cow disease)
• Highly toxic carcinogens used in flame retardants

Are there any victims?

Yes many! Sludge poisoning has caused serious illness, even death. Victims have reported headaches, fainting spells and nose bleeds. “Contact with sewage sludge can also cause asthma, respiratory problems and tumors. There have been several instances of death linked to exposure to the sludge.”

“It’s a very pernicious cycle here of taking the poisons out of the water but putting it back into our land, and therefore back into our food and water supply,” Kimbrell said. Dumping sludge on farmland is practiced widely because it is legal under EPA rules. About 3 million tons of sewage sludge is dumped on US farmlands each year, some 50 percent of the total production.

What About the EPA?

Citing “insufficient scientific evidence to any harmful effects” EPA nixed a petition in 1983 filed by 73 food and consumer groups asking for a moratorium on sludge dumping until the health, food and environmental impacts of the practice could be assessed.

What about the Department of Agriculture, Aren’t they also responsible?

Yes, they are. Andy McElmurray whose farm was contaminated from sewage sludge successfully sued the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The court ruled that the EPA’s “purposely manipulated data to squash scientific dissent,” and therefore their data was unreliable.

“Bad science and bad policy has to stop, and I think Congress has had it,” Kimbrell said. “There’s a mood for change now, and here’s where we can begin to see real change.”

Let’s hope Kimbrell would not be disappointed!

Hurricane Ike Update 9/10

Ike Update 9/12: Who Rubbed the Oil Lamp?

Ike Loves Open Waters!

Ike has strengthened to a Category 2A on FEWW Hurricane Scale, and is expected to become a major hurricane (category 3A or above with winds of at least 178km/hr) before making landfall in the northern Gulf of Mexico (Southern Texas).

FEWW Comment: Ike left behind up to 200 people dead in Haiti and Cuba (the death toll could still rise) as it churned through the Caribbeans and is now bringing much wind and rain to the US.

Having previously strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane, Ike struck eastern Cuba as a category 3 hurricane, and there’s a significant probability that it might strengthen again to a category 3 hurricane, possibly stronger, as it moves over the warm waters of Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Ike has shown a remarkable ability to self organize since almost immediately after birth. The hurricane previously strengthened steadily, but rapidly, as it moved west on the open waters of the Atlantic ocean. Ike loves open waters and with its nascent ability to strengthen rapidly he could prove to be the strongest and most dangerous hurricane of the season to date; however, it’s still too early to forecast with high certainty the hurricane’s wind forces at landfall.

Ike on his way out of Cuba. GOES East Unenhanced Image Frozen for the purpose of comparison. Date and Time: Sept 11, 2008 at 00:15UTC – Credit: NOAA/NHC/NWS

GOES East Floater (Updated Image) Unenhanced – IR CH 4 – Date and Time: Updated  (see foot of image). Credit: NOAA/NHC/NWS

IKE CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF

• Source: NHC
• Forecaster: Knabb/Berg
• Date and Time: Sept 10, 2008 at 00:00UTC

• Hurricane Watch Area: From Cameron westward to port Mansfield, Texas.  Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Friday.

• Tropical Storm Warning Area: From the mouth of the Mississippi River westward to east of Cameron Louisiana.  AND from west of Key West to the Dry Tortugas.

• Location: At 00:00UTC the center of hurricane Ike was located near latitude 24.7 north, longitude 86.3 west or about 1,125 km east of Brownsville Texas and about 555 km south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
  

• Category and Wind Speed: At 160 km/hr, with higher
  Gusts, Ike is a Category 2A hurricane on the FEWW Hurricane Scale.  Ike is expected to become a major hurricane by Thursday.
• Direction: Ike is moving toward the northwest near 13 km/hr.  A turn back toward the west-northwestward is expected tonight or early on Thursday and a general west-northwestward motion over the central and western Gulf of Mexico is expected on Thursday and Friday.
• Breadth: Ike is a large tropical cyclone.  Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 185 km from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 335 km. 
  
• Estimated minimum central pressure: 947 mb (27.96 inches).

• Storm surge flooding: Coastal storm surge flooding along the coasts of Cuba and in the Florida Keys should continue to subside tonight.  coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels, along with large and dangerous waves, can be expected within the tropical storm warning area.  Above normal tides of 2 to 4 feet are expected elsewhere along much of the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so, but will be increasing along the western gulf coast as Ike approaches.

• Rainfall: Ike is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 15 to 30 centimeters (cm) over western Cuba, with isolated maximum amounts of up to
  50cm possible.  These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over mountainous terrain.  Rainfall amounts of 2 to 5cm are possible over extreme southern Louisiana and over the extreme northern Yucatan Peninsula.

Ike’s Forecast Path

Latest NCEP/Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) Forecast Positions. Credit: CIMSS – Space Science and Engineering Center – University of Wisconsin- Madison

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone

Credit: NOAA/NHC/NWS

Critically Endangered Species: Arctic Sea Ice

Hell Hath No Fury Like Oceans Warming!

Record Arctic ice loss in August

Previously you read on this blog that the Arctic ice cover was the second-lowest on record. The National Snow and Ice Data Center has since reported that the rate of ice loss through the month of August set a new record, reinforcing conclusions that the Arctic sea ice cover is in a long-term state of decline. With more than a week left to the end of the melt season, the Arctic shrink could still hit a new record annual low in September.

See below for the stats:

• Arctic sea ice extent on September 3, 2008 was 4.85 million square kilometers.
• Extent decline since the beginning of August was 2.47 million square kilometers.
• Extent is now within 370,000 square kilometers of 2007 value on the same date (about 2.08 million square kilometers below the 1979 to 2000 average).
• The average daily ice loss rate for August 2008 was 78,000 square kilometers per day (the fastest rate of daily ice loss ever recorded for a month of August).
• The average daily ice loss rate for August 2007 was 63,000 square kilometers per day.
• The average daily ice loss rate for the month of August was 51,000 square kilometers per day.

It takes very little additional energy to melt what remains of a very thinned sea ice cover!

Monthly August ice extent for 1979 to 2008 shows 2008 as the second-lowest August on record. —Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center  – High-resolution image

The graph above shows daily sea ice extent.The solid light blue line indicates 2008; the dashed green line shows extent for 2007; the gray line indicates average extent from 1979 to 2000. Sea Ice Index data. —Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center – High-resolution image

Sea surface temperature anomalies for August 2008, expressed with respect to 1982 to 2006 mean, correspond closely with ice retreat. Blue line indicates ice edge; warm colors indicate positive sea surface temperature anomalies. —Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center courtesy Mike Steele and Wendy Ermold: Polar Science Center/Applied Physics Laboratory/University of Washington.

High-resolution image

Related Links:

• Arctic ice cover second-lowest on record
• Frequently Asked Questions

A Haiku for Earth

Haiku submitted by a reader:

Behold the shrinking ice
Vanish from Earth
Broiling by lifestyle.

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Related Links:

• Threatened Species: Arctic Sea Ice
• Arctic ice cover second-lowest on record

Hurricane Ike Update 9/9

Ike Update 9/12: Who Rubbed the Oil Lamp?

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/10

• Ike’s Photos and Videos

2009: A New Climate

What if each time a storm struck your area it turned out to be a major hurricane?

Based on MSRB/CASF dynamic energy models and FEWW climate model there’s a high probability that:

1. The duration of Atlantic Hurricane season may be longer in 2009. It could start earlier than June 1, and end later than November 30. The FEWW model forecasts an 11-18 day increase in the season.

2. The storms could get stronger throughout the season. Our model indicates average increases in the maximum wind speeds of tropical storms as follows

• Category 5 hurricanes [Saffir-Simpson scale] : 16 to 19 percent increase
• Category 4 hurricanes : 14 to 17 percent
• Category 3 hurricanes : 8 to 11 percent
• Category 2 hurricanes : 4 to 6 percent
• Category 1 hurricanes : 2 to 4 percent

Now, back to Ike

Latest Headlines:

• More than 1 million are evacuated but there are four deaths as 20 inches of rain and 100-mph winds pound Cuba. Reports mount of earlier deaths and destruction in Haiti. Texas could be next. (LA Times)

• Oil and natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico remained at a trickle on Tuesday as Hurricane Ike moved toward the region, triggering the second storm-related wave of offshore platform evacuations and production shutdowns in less than two weeks. (Reuters).

• Some two million Cubans had been driven from their homes by the storm’s winds topping 130 km/h (80 mph) more than 24 hours after it first made landfall on Sunday. (AFP)

• Ike earlier caused 66 deaths in Haiti and reportedly damaged 80% of the homes in the Turks and Caicos Islands. (BBC)

Latest NCEP/Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) Forecast Positions. Credit: CIMSS – Space Science and Engineering Center – University of Wisconsin- Madison:

CENTER OF IKE APPROACHING WESTERN CUBA

• Source: NHC
• Forecaster: Franklin
• Date and Time: Sept 9, 2008 at 12:00UTC

• Location: At 12:00UTC the center of hurricane Ike was located near latitude 22.4 north, longitude 82.4 west, or about 65 Km south of Havana, Cuba.
  

• Category and Wind Speed: At 130 km/hr, Ike is a Category one hurricane  on FEWW Hurricane Scale.  Some strengthening may occur this morning before Ike moves over Western Cuba.  Additional strengthening is forecast to occur once Ike reaches the Gulf of Mexico.
• Direction: Ike is moving toward the west-northwest at 20 km/hr and  is expected to continue in that direction in the next 48 hrs.  The center of Ike should reach the south coast of western Cuba in the next few hours, and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico by this evening.
• Breadth: Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 355 km from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 km. 
  
• Estimated minimum central pressure: 965mb (28.50 inches).

• Storm surge flooding: Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels, along with large and dangerous battering waves, can be expected in areas of onshore winds east of Ike along the southern coast of  Cuba.
• Storm surge flooding of up to 90cm, along with Large and dangerous waves, are possible in the Florida Keys.
• Large swells generated by Ike will continue to affect portions of the southeast United States coast during the next couple of days. These waves could generate dangerous and life-threatening rip
  currents.

• Rainfall: Ike is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 25cm over Cuba, with isolated maximum amounts of up to 50cm possible. These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flash
  floods and mud slides over mountainous terrain. Rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10cm are possible over the Cayman Islands. Rainfall accumulations of 2.5 to 8cm are possible over the Florida Keys.
• Isolated tornadoes and waterspouts are possible over the Florida Keys and extreme south Florida today.

Hurericane Ike: Latest Photos and Videos

Ike Update 9/12: Who Rubbed the Oil Lamp?

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/10

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/9

Hurricane Ike Video and Photo Links [See following pages]

View of the sky over Havana’ s harbor on the impending arrival of Hurricane Ike, September 7, 2008. Adalberto Roque. Image may be subject to copyright.

Image Galleries:

• Gallery No 1
• Gallery No 2
• Gallery No 3
• Gallery No 4
• Gallery No 5
• Gallery No 6

Videos are embedded on the below linked pages:

• Ike weakens to Category 1 hurricane over Cuba
• Storm Ike’s uncertain course hampers U.S. plans
• Hurricane Ike pummels Cuba, aims for Gulf Coast

• Deadly hurricane heads for Havana

• Four dead as hurricane hits Cuba
• BBC Weather tracks Hurricane Ike
• ‘Hundreds’ killed by Haiti storm
• Hurricane Ike devastates Caribbean

Thought for the Day: The LHC and Earth

Big Bang, Indeed! [Putting the Cart before …]

The good news: “We” are about to find some answers to how the universe was born [or so we hope!]

The Bad News: We have no idea how to stop killing the earth!

See: Astronomical Cost of LHC Reminds You of ISS

Related Links:

• Frustrated NASA chief vents about agency’s fate
• Shoot Down the ISS

• God Particle
• 286W

Hurricane Ike Update 9/7

Ike Update 9/12: Who Rubbed the Oil Lamp?

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/10

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/9

• Latest Photos and Videos

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/8

Ike: A Deadly Hurricane by any Other Name

2008 Year of the Rain, too?

GOES – Floater Image – UneEnhanced Infrared CH4 – Date and time:  Updated on Image – Credit NOAA/NESDIS/SSD

FEWW Comment:  Ike has re-restrengthened to a  Category 4A on the FEWW Hurricane Scale (Cat. 4 on Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale)  with extremely dangerous wind speeds of about 215km/hr. It’s outer bands have enveloped the Dominican Republic and the northeastern peripheries of Haiti, moving slowly to cover north [and rest] of the island, where 500 people have already died and up to a million others displaced from previous storms. More rain, flooding, deaths and devastation are to be expected.

Subject to current weather condition and sea temperatures in the Caribbeans and on its forecast path, hurricane Ike may strengthen to a Category 5 hurricane as it approaches/makes landfall in Cuba, striking ferociously at the heart of the tropical island, which is already reeling from the shock of the previous three storms (Fay, Gustav and Hannah) in as many weeks. It’s hoped that the resilient Cuban people would literally “weather the storm.”

Storm Centered Infrared Image. Click here for  JAVA Movie (color enhancement). credit CIMSS – Space Science and Engineering Center – University of Wisconsin- Madison

GOES – Tropical Floater Imagery – Infrared CH 4 – Date and time:  Updated on Image – Credit NOAA/NESDIS/SSD

GOES EAST – North Atlantic Imagery – JSL2 enhancement – Date and time:  Updated on Image – Credit NOAA/NESDIS/SSD

Eye of Extremely Dangerous Hurricane Ike Passing Over the Turks Islands

• Source: NHC
• Forecaster: Avila
• Date and Time:Sept 7, 2008 at 03:00UTC
• Category and Wind Speed: About 215 km/hr with higher gusts.  Ike is an extremely dangerous category four Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale [Cat 4A on FEWW Hurricane Scale]. Some strengthening is
  Possible before Ike moves over eastern Cuba.
• Location: The large eye of hurricane Ike was located near latitude 21.2 north, longitude 70.9 west, very close to the Turks and Caicos Islands.
• Direction: Ike is moving toward the west-southwest near 24 km/hr and this motion is expected to continue Sunday with a gradual turn to the west late Sunday. On this track, the core of the hurricane Will begin to affect the southeastern Bahamas early Sunday.  Ike should then move near the central Bahamas and the northern coast of eastern Cuba Sunday night/early Monday.
• Breadth: Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 75 km from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 220 km.
  
• Estimated minimum central pressure: 947mb (27.96 inches).

• Storm surge flooding: 13 to 18 feet above normal tide levels and large and dangerous battering waves can be expected in the warning areas.
• Large swells generated by Ike will affect portions of the southeast United States coast during the next 48 hrs.  These waves could generate dangerous and life-threatening rip currents.

• Rainfall: About 10 to 20 cm (4 to 8 inches) with isolated maximum amounts of 30 cm (12 inches) are expected over the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas. Hispaniola and eastern Cuba could see 15 to 30 cm (6 to 12 inches) of rain with isolated maximum amounts of up to 50cm (20 inches) possible.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over mountainous terrain.

These graphics show probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 34 kt…39 mph (tropical storm force). These wind speed probability graphics are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. Each graphic provides cumulative probabilities that wind speeds of at least 39 mph will occur during cumulative time periods at each specific point on the map. The cumulative periods begin at the start of the forecast period and extend through the entire 5-day forecast period at cumulative 12-hour intervals (i.e., 0-12 h, 0-24 h, 0-36 h, … , 0-120 h). An individual graphic is produced for each cumulative interval, and the capability to zoom and animate through the periods is provided. To assess the overall risk of experiencing winds of at least 39 mph at any location, the 120-h graphics are recommended. NOAA/NHC/NWS

Related “Year of the Expected Unknowns” Links:

• This’s Got to Be the Year of Radioactive, Chemical and Oil Spills, Too!
• Will 2008 be year of the tornadoes, too?
• California Fires: Not Hard to Understand!

• 2008: Year of the Expected Unknowns!
• First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities

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Hurricane Ike, TS Hannah, TS Josephine – Update 9-5

Ike Update 9/12: Who Rubbed the Oil Lamp?

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/10

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/9

• Photos and Videos

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/8

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/7

Tropical Storm Hannah

FEWW Comment: Big Hannah’s torrential rains have already submerged parts of Haiti in more than  two meters of floodwater, leaving about 140 people dead. A nightmare scenario in the US Atlantic coast could unfold, if Hannah were to move in slow motion over the U.S. east coast, as already predicted by NHC, without necessarily making landfall, repeating a similar performance to her Haiti debut.

Updated Tropical Atlantic Imagery – Aviation color enhancement – GOES East – Date and time as shown on image. Credit NOAA/SSD/NESDIS

TS Hannah: Coastal Watches/Warnings and 3-Day Track Forecast Cone

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time. NOAA/NHC

TS Hannah

• Source: NHC
• Forecaster: Rhome
• Date and Time: Sept 5, 2008 / 06:00UTC
• Location: The center of tropical storm Hanna was located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 77.2 West or about 90 km north of Great Abaco Island and about 790 km south of Wilmington, North Carolina.
• Direction: Hanna is moving toward the northwest. NHC expects a gradual turn to the north with an increase in forward speed later today. The center of Hanna will be near the southeast coast of the United States later Today. However, rains and winds associated with Hanna will reach the coast well in advance of the center.
• Speed: About 30 km/hr.
• Wind Speed: About 105 km/hr with higher gusts. It is still possible for Hanna to become a hurricane.
• Breadth: Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 510 km (v. large) mainly to the north and east of the center.
• Estimated minimum central pressure: 984mb (29.05 inches).
• Additional Information: Hanna could produce rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches over the Northern Bahamas and the eastern portions of south and north Carolina, with maximum isolated amounts of 5 inches possible.  Rainfall totals of up to 3 inches are possible from the Georgia coast southward to the central Florida coast. Very heavy rainfall amounts are likely to spread rapidly northward into the mid Atlantic states and New England from Friday night into Saturday and may result in flooding.

Hurricane Ike

Hurricane Ike: Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone

NOAA/NHC

FEWW Comment: Ike, having strengthened to a very dangerous Category 4B on the FEWW Hurricane Scale just over 24 hours ago, is now slightly downgraded to a category 4A hurricane churning in a westerly direction. If Ike remains on its 5-day NHC-predicted path, and maintains its current strength as a major hurricane (Category 3A or above,) it would sweep over the northern edge of Haiti and the Island of Cuba causing additional destruction on a grand scale, compounding the misery caused by TS Fay, Hurricane Gustav and Hurricane Hannah during the last 19 days.

• Source: NHC
• Forecaster: Brown
• Date and Time: Sept 5, 2008 at  03:00UTC
• Category and Wind Speed: About 215 km/hr, with higher gusts. Ike is an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale [Category 4A on FEWW Hurricane Scale.] Some weakening is forecast during the next 24 to 48 hours.
• Location: The center of hurricane Ike was located near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 59.5 West or about 760 km north-northeast of the Leeward Islands and about 1,215 km east-northeast of Grand Turk island.
• Direction: Ike is moving in a westerly direction. A turn toward the west-southwest is expected on Friday, and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday.  On this track the hurricane will continue to move over the open waters of the west-central Atlantic during the next 48 hours.
• Speed: About 22 km/hr.
• Breadth: Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 55 km from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 km.
• Estimated minimum central pressure: 945mb (27.91 inches).

TS Josephine

Coming soon …

Hungry Haitian Flood Victims Stranded on Rooftops

“There is no food, no water, no clothes … I want to know what I’m supposed to do … we haven’t found anything to eat in two, three days. Nothing at all.” Pastor Arnaud Dumas

TS Hannah the third tropical storm to strike Haiti in three weeks has left the northern Haitian city of Gonaives submerged in two meters of water. According to AP’s latest report there are 137 confirmed deaths in Haiti.

Hurricane Hanna is seen southeast of Nassau. The system was drifting toward the west near 3 km/hr with maximum sustained winds of about 130km/hr. Dated 2008.09.02 at 08:45UTC – Credit NOAA/NESDIS/EVP

Haitian President Rene Preval declared the situation in his impoverished Caribbean nation a “catastrophe.”

Thousands of people including patients in a flooded hospital have moved to upper floor rooms, balconies and roofs, waiting for the floodwater to recede.

“There are a lot of people who have been on top of the roofs of their homes over 24 hours now … They have no water, no food and we can’t even help them.” The interior minister, Paul Antoine Bien-Aime, told Reuters news.

An aerial view of floods caused by Tropical Storm Hanna is seen in Gonaives September 3, 2008. REUTERS/Marco Dormino/Minustah/Handout

In Cuba more than 500 schools and 100,000 homes were affected. “There are severe damages to the electrical system. It’s practically on the floor,” said the vice- president, Carlos Lage. “In terms of buildings and homes, roofs are generally gone. The island is exposed to the sky.” Thousands of tons of tobacco leaves, coffee, grapefruit and other produce have been destroyed.

A Bolivian peacekeeper, left, stands on an area flooded by heavy rains from Tropical Storm Hanna next to residents in Savan Desole, Haiti, Wednesday, Sept. 3, 2008. The storm has spawned flooding in Haiti that left 10 people dead in Gonaives, along Haiti’s western coast, according to the country’s civil protection department.(AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos). Image may be subject to copyright.

Fidel Castro, Cuba’s ex-president likened the destruction to the nuclear attack on Hiroshima. “The photos and videos transmitted on national television reminded me of the desolation I saw when I visited Hiroshima.”

Hurricane Ike in a satellite image taken September 4, 2008. Hurricane Ike strengthened rapidly into an fiercely dangerous Category 4 hurricane in the open Atlantic on Wednesday.   REUTERS/NOAA/Handout

Meanwhile, hurricane Ike, a very dangerous category 4B hurricane with sustained winds of about 230 km/hr is revving up about 1,000 km northeast of Haiti. Ike is expected to turn west in the next 24 hours.

Related Links:

• Remember this Image!

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Ike Becomes the Third Major Hurricane in 2008

Ike Update 9/12: Who Rubbed the Oil Lamp?

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/10

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/9

• Photos and Videos

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/8

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/7

With sustained winds of 185 km/hr Ike strengthens to a Category 3A Hurricane

GOES Floater – Tropical Imagery – Water Vapor Image – Date and Time: Updated. Credit NOAA/SSD

FEWW Comment: Hurricane Ike has shown a remarkable ability to self organize since almost immediately after birth. Ike has been strengthening steadily, but rapidly. There are no obvious reasons yet why Ike might change its nascent characteristics. While there’s still a long way to go to forecast the possible impact of Ike on any specific land areas, Ike could prove to be the strongest and most dangerous hurricane of the season yet.

Hurricane Ike’s Latest Update

Source: NHC
Forecaster: Brown/Blake
Date: Sep 4, 2008
Time: 00:01UTC
Location: The eye of hurricane Ike was located near latitude 21.7 north, longitude 53.2 west or about 1,035 km east-northeast of the Leeward Islands.
Direction: Ike is moving toward the west-northwest . This general motion is expected to continue tonight and early Thursday. By Thursday night early Friday a turn to the west is expected taking Ike over the open waters of the west-central Atlantic during the next 48 hours. It is too early to determine what if any land areas might eventually be affected by Ike.
Speed: About 30 km/hr (unchanged from previous report).
Wind Speed: Maximum sustained winds are about 185 km/hr with higher gusts.  Ike is a dangerous category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, or a category 3A on the FEWW hurricane scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 48 hours.
Breadth: Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 55 km from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure: 960mb (28.35 inches)

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone [NHC/NWS/NOAA]

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time.