Collapse Headlines – 15 July 2010

Indian Ocean sea level rise threatens millions in coastal areas

Millions are at risk along low-lying coastlines in Bangladesh, Indonesia and Sri Lanka as sea levels continue rising unevenly in the Indian Ocean: Study

Original Caption:  The Indian Ocean/West Pacific Warm Pool extends almost half way around the globe, stretching along the equator south of India, through the waters off Sumatra, Java, Borneo, and New Guinea, and into the central Pacific Ocean. The waters of the Warm Pool are warmer than any other open ocean on Earth. Because these waters are hot enough to drive heat and moisture high into the atmosphere, the warm pool has a large effect on the climate of surrounding lands. In fact, the slow fluctuations of size and intensity of the warm pool may be linked with the intensity of El Niño.

UCAR Caption: A new study in Nature Geoscience finds that Indian Ocean sea levels are rising unevenly and threatening residents in some densely populated coastal areas, particularly those along the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea, Sri Lanka, Sumatra, and Java. This image shows the key player in the process, the Indo-Pacific warm pool, in bright orange. This enormous, bathtub-shaped area spans a region of the tropical oceans from the east coast of Africa to the International Date Line in the Pacific. The warm pool has heated by about 1 degree Fahrenheit, or 0.5 degrees Celsius, in the past 50 years, primarily because of human-generated emissions of greenhouses gases. (Image source:  NASA Earth Observatory.)

“Our new results show that human-caused atmosphericoceanic circulation changes over the Indian Ocean, which have not been studied previously, contribute to the regional variability of sea-level change,” say the researchers.

“Sea level rise is particularly high along the coastlines of the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea, Sri Lanka, Sumatra, and Java, the authors found. The rise—which may aggravate monsoon flooding in Bangladesh and India—could have future impacts on both regional and global climate.”

“The key player in the process is the Indo-Pacific warm pool, an enormous, bathtub-shaped area spanning a region of the tropical oceans from the east coast of Africa to the International Date Line in the Pacific. The warm pool has heated by about 1 degree Fahrenheit, or 0.5 degrees Celsius, in the past 50 years, primarily because of human-generated emissions of greenhouses gases.”

“Our results from this study imply that if future anthropogenic warming effects in the Indo-Pacific warm pool dominate natural variability, mid-ocean islands such as the Mascarenhas Archipelago, coasts of Indonesia, Sumatra, and the north Indian Ocean may experience significantly more sea level rise than the global average,” says the lead author.

World’s mangroves retreating at alarming rate: study

The world’s mangroves are being destroyed about 4 times faster than other forests, a new study reports.

“The ‘World Mangrove Atlas’ report noted that mangrove forests provide huge economic services, acting as nurseries for sea fish, storing carbon and providing robust defenses against floods and cyclones at a time of rising sea levels.” A report said.

A bird is seen in a swamp at Hithadoo at Addu Atoll December 9, 2009.  Credit: Reuters/Reinhard Krause. Image may be subject to copyright.

“The greatest drivers for mangrove forest loss are direct conversion to aquaculture, agriculture and urban land uses. Coastal zones are often densely populated and pressure for land intense. Where mangroves remain, they have often been degraded through overharvesting,” the study says.

Pollution Speeds Up Snow Melt in Europe, Asia

Springtime warming and snow melt are  occurring at a faster rate in Eurasia than in North America since 1980, a report said.

“Climate scientist Mark Flanner, an assistant professor at the University of Michigan and a recent Advanced Study Program graduate at the National Science Foundation’s National Center for Atmospheric Research, led a study that investigated these changes, ultimately finding that warming rates and snow cover decline in Eurasia may be twice what they are in North America.”

Related Links:

• Indian Ocean sea level rise threatens coastal areas
• Bay of Bengal Island Disappears
• Collapse Diary

Cyclone 24S Strengthens, Renamed Sean

Cyclone 24S powers up, renamed Tropical Storm Sean

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), instrument that flies aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite from April 22 at 17:29 UTC (1:29 p.m. EDT) showed some strong, high, cold thunderstorms around Sean’s center.

Infrared imagery is false-colored and higher cloud tops of stronger storms are depicted in purple. Sean showed a circular area of high, strong thunderstorms around his center of circulation. Those highest thunderstorms are as cold as or colder than 220 Kelvin or minus 63 degrees Fahrenheit (F).

On Friday, April 23 at 1500 UTC (11 a.m. EDT) Tropical Storm Sean had maximum sustained winds near 45 knots (52 mph). It was about 475 nautical miles north of Learmonth, Australia, near 14.4 South and 113.3 East. It was moving southeast at 4 knots (5 mph).

Animated infrared satellite imagery shows convective banding (that is, rapidly rising air that condenses and form thunderstorms) keeps wrapping into the low-level center of the storm, from both the south and east of the center. Forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center note that conditions are still good for further intensification over the next 12-24 hours, but then Sean will encounter vertical wind shear and begin weakening over the weekend.

Sean is a sea storm, and will not affect any land areas over the weekend. Image and Text: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

Related Links:

• Satellite Imagery
• NASA Storms

–

Serial No 1,617. Starting April 2010, each entry on this blog has a unique serial number. If any of the numbers are missing, it may mean that the corresponding entry has been blocked by Google/the authorities in your country. Please drop us a line if you detect any anomaly/missing number(s).

Disaster Update March 13

Cyclone Hubert: 14 dead, 500 homes destroyed, 32,000 affected, thousands homeless

The seemingly innocuous tropical cyclone drenched Madagascar’s eastern coastline killing 14 people, destroying 500 homes and leaving 32,000 people affected, the government said on Friday.

The National Office for Risk and Catastrophe Management (BNGRC) said Hubert had also flooded thousands of other properties.

Hubert’s visible image captured by NASA’s AIRS instrument as the storm was making a landfall, showing half of the storm is over land, and half is still over the Southern Indian Ocean on March 11, 2010. Source: NASA/JPL

Home to more than 5 percent of the world’s animal and plant species, Madagascar is the world’s fourth largest island. Madagascar is rich in oil, uranium, nickel and cobalt deposits. The country has a population of 21 million with a per capita GDP of $486 ($1.28 dollars per day). About 80 percent of the population live on less than a dollar per day.

The island is located in the southwestern Indian Ocean on a cyclone path and experiences storm landfalls almost every year.

Chile Quake Aftershocks

Rancagua, Chile. Two powerful aftershocks measuring 7.2M and 7.3M struck central Chile causing significant damage in the city of Rancagua according to various reports. As of posting there were no report of fatalities, however there were reports of extensive damage to roads throughout the region where the shocks occurred.

The aftershocks prompted the closure of several ports.

“All packinghouses stopped working yesterday as employees returned home. Also, because of the tsunami alert, ports were closed for around 24 hours.” Juan Pablo Vicuna, president of Santiago-based Dole Chile S.A. reportedly told the media on March 12.

“The originally expected shipments for this week [week of March 8] will be down around 45%,” Vicuna said.

“The Port of Valparaiso, through which most Chilean fruit exports pass, reopened March 12 and was running at about 60% capacity,” an industry spokesperson said, according to a report.

There were several reports of extensive road damage, power outages and employee fears reducing capacity at several other ports by 40 to 60 percent.

Related Links:

• Tropical Cyclone 18S Approaches Madagascar
• Chile Struck by 7.3 and 7.2M Aftershocks
• Chile Earthquake Links Page

Cyclone GELANE UPDATE 2 (Feb 19)

TC GELANE Strengthens to a Category 3A Hurricane on FEWW New Hurricane Scale

With sustained winds of about 190 km/hr (gusts of up to 235 km/hr), Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) is now a Category 3A Hurricane on  FEWW New Hurricane Scale. Fire-Earth believes the cyclone would reach Category 4A strength, possibly stronger, as forecast yesterday.

The system is expected to continue intensifying during the next 36 hours. The coral reef island of Rodrigues should expect heavy rain as the cyclone moves closer.

Cyclone GELANE. Water Vapor satellite images. Source: UW-CIMSS.  Click images to enlarge.

Tropical Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) Details

• Date/Time: 19 February 2010 –  01:00 UTC
• Position:  Near 16.3ºS, 62.5ºE
• Sustained Movement: 180  degrees
  
• Forward speed:  9 km/hr ( 5 kt)
• The system has been tracking  SOUTH over the past 6 hours.
  

Current Wind Distribution:

• Maximum Sustained winds:  190km/hr (102 kt)
• Maximum Gusts:  ~ 235 km/hr (~ 125kt)
• GELANE is currently a Cat. 3A Hurricane on FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Wave Height and Location:

• Maximum significant wave height: ~ 9m (27 ft)
  
• Location: TC GELANE was located about ~ 885 km (~ 475 NM) NE of Réunion island.
  
• Sources: CIMSS, JTWC and Others

See also: UW- CIMSS Cyclone Portal

|
GELANE through the eye of TRMM. Credit: NASA/SSAI

Related Links:

• Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) UPDATE 1 (Feb 18)
• Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S)
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Tropical Cyclone EDZANI Strengthens

TC EDZANI (07S) UPDATE

Tropical cyclone EDZANI  intensifies

• Time/Date: 7 January 2010 – 00:01UTC
• Position: 13.8ºS, 80.3ºE
• Sustained Movement: 245 degrees
• Forward speed: 19km/hr (10 kt)

Current wind distribution:

• Maximum Sustained winds: 75 km/hr (40 kt)
• Maximum Gusts: 95 km/hr (~ 50 kt)
• Source: JTWC and Others

Observation:

• Tropical Cyclone EDZANI (TC 07S) is currently located about 1,200 km (650 nm) ESE of Diego Garcia, tracking west-southwestward at 19 km/hr (10 knots).

• “Animated multispectral imagery and an SSMIS microwave image [taken on 06 Jan at 11:37UTC show] improved convective consolidation and an increasingly symmetric low level circulation center (LLCC).” JTWC reported.

Infrared METEOSAT-5 Indian Ocean. Credit: CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Group

• Click HERE for JAVA Animation

Related Links:

• Tropical Cyclone Seven Forms
• El Niño
• Satellite Imagery

El Niño Update [28 Oct 2009]

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  26  October 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

• Niño 4   ~  1.4ºC
• Niño 3.4  ~  1.1ºC
• Niño 3 ~ 0.8ºC
• Niño 1+2 ~ 0.1ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 140°W and in small areas in the eastern Pacific.

Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks

• During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central Pacific Ocean.

• During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased over the central Pacific.

Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days

• Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia, Malaysia, and Australia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were located across the Philippines, Papua New Guinea, and in the western tropical Pacific Ocean.
• Low-level (850-hPa) equatorial winds were near-average over the central and eastern Pacific. Westerly anomalies were observed in the western Pacific.
• Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific.

Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

• Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

• The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to greater than +2.0°C), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during during November-December-January 2009-10. Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 15 Oct 2009).

SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 18 October 2009
The CFS ensemble mean predicts El Niño will last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Summary

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.

Related Links:

• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams
• El Niño Forecasts

El Niño Updates:

• El Niño [Main Page and Archive]

El Niño Update [13 Oct 2009]

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 13 October 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

• Niño 4   ~ 1.0ºC
• Niño 3.4  ~ 0.7ºC
• Niño 3 ~ 0.7ºC
• Niño 1+2 ~ (-0.7)ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
WeeksDuring the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least1.0°C above average across parts of the central and eastern Pacific.

Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
During the last four weeks, SST anomalies remained positive across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, except in the far eastern Pacific, which have become negative. •During the last month, equatorial SST anomalies decreased over much of the eastern Pacific and increased over the central Pacific.

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
During mid August through September, an anomalous trough was prevalent in the North Pacific Ocean/Gulf of Alaska. During September, an anomalous ridge was present downstream, focused over Canada and the northern United States. The pattern also featured a weak trough over the central U.S., which contributed to below-average temperatures in the region, while the northern U.S. and Canada remained warmer-than-average. Recently, an anomalous ridge has dominated the Gulf of Alaska, and a downstream trough has led tobelow-average temperatures across much of the western and northern U.S.

Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5ºC to +2.0ºC), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10.

Summary

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.

Related Links:

• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams
• El Niño Forecasts

El Niño Updates:

• El Niño [Main Page and Archive]

El Niño Update [28 Sept 2009]

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 28 Sept 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

• Niño 4   ~ 0.8ºC
• Niño 3.4  ~ 0.8ºC
• Niño 3 ~ 0.7ºC
• Niño 1+2 ~ -0.1ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) –  Recent Evolution

Highlights

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least1.0°C above average across much of the central and eastern Pacific.

Global SST Departures  (ºC)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes.

Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks

• During the last four weeks, SST anomalies remained positive across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• During the last month, there was little change in the equatorial SST anomalies.

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (ºC) in the Equatorial Pacific

• In the first half of September 2009, temperature anomalies increased in the eastern Pacific due to the downwelling phase of a Kelvin wave.
• The most recent period shows a continuation of positive anomalies across the equatorial Pacific, with the largest values between 50-150m depth.

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
During late July through September, an anomalous trough was prevalent in the central North Pacific Ocean. During September, an anomalous ridge was present downstream, focused over Canada and the northern United States. The pattern also featured a trough over the southern U.S., which contributed to cooling in the region, while the northern U.S. and Canada remained warmer-than-average.

Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

• Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
• The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to +2.0°C), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10.

Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 14 Sept 2009).

ONI Evolution
The most recent ONI value (June –August 2009) is +0.7oC.

Summary:

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.

Related Links:

• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams
• El Niño Forecasts

El Niño Updates:

• El Niño [Main Page]

• El Niño Update [21 Sept 2009]

• El Niño Update [14 Sept 2009]
• El Niño Update [8 Sept 2009]
• El Niño Update [31 Aug 2009]
• El Niño Update [17 Aug 2009]
• El Niño Update – 10 August 2009
• El Niño Update – 3 August 2009
• El Niño Update – 27 July 2009

• El Niño Update – 20 July 2009
• El Niño Update # 1
• El Niño conditions is in progress —NOAA
• El Niño event almost certain: BOM
• El Niño could develop June – August 2009
• World Now
• 2009 Hurricane Season

El Niño Update [21 Sept 2009]

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 21 Sept 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

• Niño 4   ~ 0.8ºC
• Niño 3.4  ~ 0.9ºC
• Niño 3 ~ 0.8ºC
• Niño 1+2 ~ 0.3ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) –  Recent Evolution

Highlights

During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least1.0°C above average across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

Global SST Departures  (ºC)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes.

Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks
During the last four weeks, SST anomalies have remained positive across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. •During the last month, the change in equatorial SST anomalies was slightly positive in the east-central Pacific.

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
During late July through mid-September, an anomalous trough was prevalent in the central North Pacific Ocean. Downstream over the United States, the anomalous height pattern generally featured a trough over the eastern United States with ridging prevalent over the western U.S. This anomalous pattern led to below-average temperatures over the central and eastern U.S. and to above-average temperatures over portions of the western U.S.

ONI Evolution
The most recent ONI value (June –August 2009) is +0.7oC.

Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

• Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
• The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to +2.0°C), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10.

Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 14 Sept 2009).

SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 20 September 2009
The CFS ensemble mean predicts El Niño will last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Summary

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5ºC above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.

Related Links:

• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams
• El Niño Forecasts

El Niño Updates:

• El Niño [Main Page]

• El Niño Update [14 Sept 2009]
• El Niño Update [8 Sept 2009]
• El Niño Update [31 Aug 2009]
• El Niño Update [17 Aug 2009]
• El Niño Update – 10 August 2009
• El Niño Update – 3 August 2009
• El Niño Update – 27 July 2009

• El Niño Update – 20 July 2009
• El Niño Update # 1
• El Niño conditions is in progress —NOAA
• El Niño event almost certain: BOM
• El Niño could develop June – August 2009
• World Now
• 2009 Hurricane Season

Climate Prediction, El Niño weekly report, Global SST anomalies, Oceanic Kelvin waves, equatorial Pacific Ocean. 

El Niño Update [8 Sept 2009]

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 8 Sept 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

• Niño 4   ~ 0.8ºC
• Niño 3.4  ~ 0.9ºC
• Niño 3 ~ 1.0ºC
• Niño 1+2 ~ 0.7ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) –  Recent Evolution

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks

During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 0.5°C above-average across the Pacific Ocean and at least 1.0°C above average near the Date Line and in the eastern Pacific.

Global SST Departures (°C)

During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes.

ONI (°C): Evolution since 1950

The most recent ONI value (June – August 2009) is +0.7°C.

Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.

Summary

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5 above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

For additional information see following links.

Relate Links:

• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams
• El Niño Forecasts

El Niño Updates

• El Niño Update [31 Aug 2009]
• El Niño Update [17 Aug 2009]
• El Niño Update – 10 August 2009
• El Niño Update – 3 August 2009
• El Niño Update – 27 July 2009

• El Niño Update – 20 July 2009
• El Niño Update # 1
• El Niño conditions is in progress —NOAA
• El Niño event almost certain: BOM
• El Niño could develop June – August 2009
• World Now
• 2009 Hurricane Season

ENSO, wind anomaly El Niño, Indian Ocean, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, Positive SST

El Niño Update [24 Aug 2009]

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 24 August 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

• Niño 4   ~ 0.8ºC
• Niño 3.4  ~ 0.7ºC
• Niño 3 ~ 0.9ºC
• Niño 1+2 ~ 0.8ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) –  Recent Evolution

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks:
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 0.5°C above-average across the Pacific Ocean and at least 1.0°C above average near the Date Line and in the eastern Pacific.

Global SST Departures
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes.

Weekly SST Departures for the Last Four Weeks

• During the last four weeks, SST anomalies have been positive across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• During the last month, there has been little change in SST anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures in the Equatorial Pacific

• During late-June through mid-August 2009, positive sub-surface temperature anomalies weakened in the eastern half of the Pacific Ocean.
• The most recent period shows positive anomalies across the equatorial Pacific, with the largest anomalies near 125m depth in the west-central Pacific.

Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

• Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
• The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to +2.0°C), but a majority of the models indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10.

Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 18 Aug 2009).

Summary:

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5 above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Current observations and dynamical model forecasts indicate ElNiño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

See  El Niño Home Page for previous entries and related links.

Related Links:

• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams
• El Niño Forecasts

El Niño Updates

• El Niño Update [17 Aug 2009]

• El Niño Update – 10 August 2009
• El Niño Update – 3 August 2009
• El Niño Update – 27 July 2009
• El Niño Update – 20 July 2009
• El Niño Update # 1
• El Niño conditions is in progress —NOAA
• El Niño event almost certain: BOM
• El Niño could develop June – August 2009
• World Now
• 2009 Hurricane Season

El Niño Update – 3 August 2009

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 3 August 2009

Summary

• El Niño conditions are present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

• Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5 above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

• Current observations and dynamical model forecasts indicate ElNiño conditions will continue to intensify and are expected to last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Tropical Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and Wind Anomalies – Last 30 Days

(Top) Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia and northern Australia, while negative anomalies (enhanced convection, blue shading) in the western and central Pacific from Papua New Guinea to 160°W.

(Middle) Low-level (850-hPa) equatorial winds were near-average over the eastern equatorial Pacific. Westerly anomalies were observed in the far western Pacific.

(Above) Upper-level (200-hPa) wind anomalies remained near-average across much of the Pacific, except for westerly wind anomalies in the eastern Pacific.
Images and caption: NOAA/ NCEP.

Related Links:

• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams
• El Niño Forecasts

• El Niño Update – 27 July 2009

• El Niño Update – 20 July 2009
• El Niño Update # 1
• El Niño conditions is in progress —NOAA
• El Niño event almost certain: BOM
• El Niño could develop June – August 2009
• World Now

• El Niño [Main Page]

El Niño Update – 27 July 2009

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 27 July 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

• Niño 4   ~ 0.6ºC
• Niño 3.4  ~ 0.9ºC
• Niño 3 ~ 1.0ºC
• Niño 1+2 ~ 0.6ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) –  Recent Evolution

Summary

• El Niño conditions are present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

• Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5 above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

• Current observations and dynamical model forecasts indicate ElNiño conditions will continue to intensify and are expected to last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific

During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least +0.5°C above-average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean and at least +1.0°C above average in the east-central and eastern Pacific. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Global SST Departures

During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content Anomalies

The upper ocean heat content was below-average across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean between mid-August 2008 and March 2009, with a minimum reached in late December 2008. The heat content anomalies have remained positive since April 2009. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]  Full Report

Related Links:

• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams
• El Niño Forecasts

• El Niño Update – 20 July 2009
• El Niño Update # 1
• El Niño conditions is in progress —NOAA
• El Niño event almost certain: BOM
• El Niño could develop June – August 2009
• World Now

• El Niño [Main Page]

Notes:
1. NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña

• El Niño:characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5°C.
• La Niña:characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5°C.
• By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode,these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.
• CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 SST departures meet or exceed +/-0.5°C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.

2. Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)

• The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO.
• Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of improved homogeneous historical SST analysis (Extended Reconstructed SST –ERSST.v3b). The SST reconstruction methodology is described in Smith et al., 2008, J. Climate, vol. 21, 2283-2296.)
• Used to place current events into a historical perspective.
• NOAA’s operational definitions of El Niño and La Niña are keyed to the ONI index.

3. The most recent ONI value (April –June 2009) is +0.2oºC.

El Niño Conditions Set in Across Pacific Ocean [From NASA’s Earth Observatory]

El Niño conditions are evident in this sea surface temperature anomaly image based on data from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) on NASA’s Aqua satellite on July 26. The current data are compared to 12-year average temperatures (1985-1997) measured by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers that have flown on several NOAA missions.

Cream-colored places represent near normal temperatures; red is warmer than normal temps; while, blue shows cooler than normal areas. The dark red area on the eastern Pacific off the coast of Peru and Ecuador (north of Peru) indicates much warmer than average temps. Across the Pacific, ocean temperatures around Indonesia were slightly cooler (light blue) than usual.

Earth’s largest ocean, the Pacific is the single biggest influence on the average temperature, rainfall, and vegetation conditions in the tropics. The Pacific’s primary climate pattern, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO),  includes an ocean component (the El Niño/La Niña pattern) and an atmospheric component, the Southern Oscillation.

Every 3-8 years, the prevailing easterly winds over the eastern equatorial Pacific weaken or reverse, surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific climb, and rainfall declines over most tropical land areas. In 1997-98, an El Niño event contributed to devastating fires in Indonesia’s tropical forests, releasing large amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, which completely destroyed the Mentawai coral reefs west of Sumatra.

El Niño ocean conditions does not guarantee full ENSO event. So far the atmospheric component of the pattern, the Southern Oscillation, isn’t fully cooperating. As of July 26, the trade winds in the western Pacific (near Indonesia) had shifted direction and were blowing weakly toward the east (see NOAA wind anomaly graphic), but across the central and eastern Pacific, easterly trade winds were still of average or slightly above-average strength. For an ENSO event to fully develop, the easterly trades will have to weaken across a much wider area of the Pacific than now.

NASA image by Jesse Allen, using AMSR-E data processed and provided by Chelle Gentemann and Frank Wentz, Remote Sensing Systems. Caption by Rebecca Lindsey.  [Edited by FEWW.]

Cyclones Eric and Fanele Hit Madagascar

Cyclones Eric and Fanele

Earth Observatory: Image acquired January 19, 2008

Cyclone Fanele

Earth Observatory: Image acquired January 19, 2008

Madagascar was struck by by two tropical cyclones,  Eric and Fanele, this week. Cyclone Eric struck  the northeast coast on January 19, killing at least one person and leaving about a thousand others homeless. Cyclone Fanele made landfall on the southwest coast two days later with winds of of up to 210 kilometers per hour and torrential rains. More from Earth Observatory …