Strong Quake Strikes KEPULAUAN OBI, INDONESIA

Magnitude 6.4 Earthquake Strikes KEPULAUAN OBI, INDONESIA

Strong earthquake measuring 6.4Mw Struck about 205 north of Ambon, Moluccas, Indonesia, just south of the equator.

The earthquake was centered at 128.22°E, 1.85°S  and occurred at a depth of about 41km on Saturday, April 24, 2010 at 07:41:02 UTC.

NO tsunami warning/advisory was issued, and as of posting there was no report of damage or casualties.

Indonesian islands sit atop numerous fault line, which make the region one of the most seismically active areas on the planet. See below for a list of the quake in the region.

GFZ Potsdam – Earthquake Bulletin

• Region: Halmahera, Indonesia
• Time: 2010-04-24 07:41:03.2 UTC
• Magnitude: 6.1 [ Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climate and Geophysics Agency, BMG, recorded the quake as a 6.4Mw]
• Epicenter: 128.22°E 1.85°S
• Depth: 41 km
• Status: manually revised

© Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum – GFZ

Approximate Distances [USGS/EHP]:

• 205 km (125 miles) N of Ambon, Moluccas, Indonesia
• 305 km (190 miles) SSE of Ternate, Moluccas, Indonesia
• 1215 km (750 miles) NNW of DARWIN, Northern Territory, Australia
• 2415 km (1500 miles) E of JAKARTA, Java, Indonesia

Historic Information

• Learning from Earthquakes: Indonesia

Institutions

• Badan Meteorologi dan Geofisika – BMG
• ASEAN Earthquake Information Center
• Volcanological Survey of Indonesia

Maps

• Politcal Map of Indonesia
• Seismic Hazard Map
• Earthquake Density Map
• Seismicity Map of Indonesia

Notable Earthquakes

• Historic Earthquakes in Indonesia

Recent Earthquakes

• Last Earthquake in Indonesia [from the NEIC Earthquake Bulletin]
• BMG Recent Earthquakes

Tectonic Information

• Seismotectonics of the Indonesian Region
• Tectonics of Indonesia
• Geology of Indonesia
• Krakatau Volcano

Related Links:

• Magnitude 4.0 quake hits Utah near gas fields
• FEWW Volcano Links
• Volcanoes
• FEWW Earthquake Links

–

Serial No 1,619. Starting April 2010, each entry on this blog has a unique serial number. If any of the numbers are missing, it may mean that the corresponding entry has been blocked by Google/the authorities in your country. Please drop us a line if you detect any anomaly/missing number(s).

Powerful Earthquake Strikes N. Sumatra, Indonesia

Serial No  1,542. If any posts are blocked in your country, please drop us a line.

Powerful earthquake measuring up to 7.9Mw strikes northern Sumatra, Indonesia

The quake struck at a depth of about 46km (28.6 miles) on April 06, 2010 at 22:15:02UTC about 205 km (125 miles) WNW of Sibolga, Sumatra, Indonesia. The epicenter was located at 2.236°N, 97.046°E.

The quake struck about 160km southeast of the magnitude 9.1 quake which triggered the destructive Boxing Day tsunami in 2004.

The epicenter was also about 34km NNW of the a magnitude 8.6 shock which occurred on March 28, 2005.

A magnitude 7.6 quake in West Sumatra in September 2009 killed 1,000 people, official records showed.

Tsunami Evaluation

The following bulletin was issued by the PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS a short time ago:

SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY HAVE BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. FOR THOSE AREAS – WHEN DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS.  AS LOCAL CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION
MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

NO TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS FOR OTHER COASTAL AREAS IN THE INDIAN OCEAN ALTHOUGH SOME OTHER AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE SMALL SEA LEVEL CHANGES AND STRONG OR UNUSUAL COASTAL CURRENTS.

ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AT FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

LOCATION         FORECAST POINT     COORDINATES     ARRIVAL TIME
———————————————————————————————————
INDONESIA        SIMEULUE 2.5N  96.0E            22:46UTC 06 APR
+++++++++++BELAWAN 3.8N  98.8E            02:33UTC 07 APR

ADDITIONAL BULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI  WARNING CENTER FOR THIS EVENT AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FOR THIS EVENT. IN THE CASE OF CONFLICTING INFORMATION…THE MORE CONSERVATIVE  INFORMATION SHOULD BE USED FOR SAFETY.

There was no report of damage or casualties, as of posting.  However, a major power blackout on Simeulue Island, west of Aceh province, Indonesia, has been reported.

Updates will posted in the comments section of this post.

Earthquake Details:

• Magnitude [USGS Estimate] 7.8
• Date-Time:
  • Tuesday, April 06, 2010 at 22:15:02 UTC
  • Wednesday, April 07, 2010 at 05:15:02 AM at epicenter
• Location: 2.236°N, 97.046°E
• Depth: 46 km (28.6 miles)
• Region: NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
• Distances:
  • 205 km (125 miles) WNW of Sibolga, Sumatra, Indonesia
  • 230 km (145 miles) SW of Medan, Sumatra, Indonesia
  • 525 km (325 miles) W of KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia
  • 1425 km (880 miles) NW of JAKARTA, Java, Indonesia
• Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 7.4 km (4.6 miles); depth +/- 11.6 km (7.2 miles)
• Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
• Event ID: us2010utc5

Seismotectonics of the Indonesian Region

The Indonesian region is one of the most seismically active zones of the earth; at the same time it has a leading position from the point of view of active and potentially active volcanoes. It is a typical island-arc structure with its characteristic physiographic features, such as a deep oceanic trench, a geanticline belt, a volcanic inner arc and a marginal basin.

In most subduction zones, motion of the subducted plate is nearly perpendicular to the trench axis. In some cases, for example Sumatra, where the motion is oblique to the axis, a strike-slip fault zone is seen, and is lying parallel to the volcanic chain.

In the subduction zone southwest of Sumatra, the Sunda trench axis strikes approximately N 37°W. The Indian Ocean crust is moving in an azimuth of approximately N 23°E relative to Southeast Asia, giving an angle of obliquity of 60°. Eastern Indonesia, forming the southeastern extremity of the Southeast Asian lithospheric plate, crushed between the northward-moving Indo-Australian and the westward-moving Pacific plates, is certainly the most complex active tectonic zone on earth. The rate of subduction is some centimeters per year; for example, it is 6.0 cm per year in the West Java Trench at 0°S 97°E (azimuth 23°); 4.9 cm per year in the East Java Trench at 12°S 120°E (azimuth 19°); and 10.7 cm per year in New Guinea at 3°S 142°E (azimuth 75°).

Frequent volcanic eruptions and frequent earthquake shocks testify to the active tectonic processes which are currently in progress in response to the continued movement of these major plates. The distribution of small ocean basins, continental fragments, remnants of ancient magmatic arcs and numerous subduction complexes which make up the Indonesian region indicate that the past history of the region was equally tectonically active.

Abridged from Southeast Asia Association of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering, Series on Seismology, Volume V – Indonesia, June 1985. (Source: USGS/EHP)

Maps

• Politcal Map of Indonesia
• Seismic Hazard Map
• Earthquake Density Map
• Seismicity Map of Indonesia

• Geography of Indonesia

Related Links:

• Strong Quake Strikes Andaman Islands
  
• Magnitude 7.0ML Quake Strikes Obira Indonesia
• Large Quake Could Strike Near Padang, Sumatra
• Powerful quake shakes Sumbawa, Indonesia
• Powerful Earthquake Strikes Banda Sea

• Strong Quake Strikes Sunda Strait, Indonesia
• Recent Earthquakes ≥ 6.0 Mw
• Earth undergoing significant geophysical disturbances
• Earthquakes: Human Enhanced Disasters – UPDATE 3 Oct 2009

• FEWW Earthquake Links
• Volcanoes
• FEWW Volcano Links

Historic Earthquakes in Indonesia

• 1917 01 20 – Bali, Indonesia Fatalities 1,500
• 1938 02 01 – Banda Sea, Indonesia – M 8.5
• 1965 01 24 – Sanana, Indonesia (Ceram Sea) – M 7.6 Fatalities 71
• 1976 06 25 – Papua, Indonesia – M 7.1 Fatalities 5,000
• 1992 12 12 – Flores Region, Indonesia – M 7.8 Fatalities 2,500
• 2000 06 04 – Southern Sumatera, Indonesia – M 7.9 Fatalities 103
• 2002 10 10 – Irian Jaya, Indonesia – M 7.6 Fatalities 8
• 2002 11 02 – Northern Sumatera, Indonesia – M 7.4 Fatalities 3
• 2003 05 26 – Halmahera, Indonesia – M 7.0 Fatalities 1
• 2004 01 28 – Seram, Indonesia – M 6.7
• 2004 02 05 – Irian Jaya, Indonesia – M 7.0 Fatalities 37
• 2004 02 07 – Irian Jaya, Indonesia – M 7.3
• 2004 07 25 – Southern Sumatra, Indonesia – M 7.3
• 2004 11 11 – Kepulauan Alor, Indonesia – M 7.5 Fatalities 34
• 2004 11 26 – Papua, Indonesia – M 7.1 Fatalities 32
• 2004 12 26 – Sumatra-Andaman Islands – M 9.1 Fatalities 227,898
• 2005 01 01 – Off the West Coast of Northern Sumatra – M 6.7
• 2005 02 19 – Sulawesi, Indonesia – M 6.5
• 2005 02 26 – Simeulue, Indonesia – M 6.8
• 2005 03 02 – Banda Sea – M 7.1
• 2005 03 28 – Northern Sumatra, Indonesia – M 8.6 Fatalities 1,313
• 2005 04 10 – Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia – M 6.7
• 2005 05 14 – Nias Region, Indonesia – M 6.7
• 2005 05 19 – Nias Region, Indonesia – M 6.9
• 2005 07 05 – Nias Region, Indonesia – M 6.7
• 2005 11 19 – Simeulue, Indonesia – M 6.5
• 2006 01 27 – Banda Sea – M 7.6
• 2006 03 14 – Seram, Indonesia – M 6.7 Fatalities 4
• 2006 05 16 – Nias Region, Indonesia – M 6.8
• 2006 05 26 – Java, Indonesia – M 6.3 Fatalities 5,749
• 2006 07 17 – South of Java, Indonesia – M 7.7 Fatalities 730
• 2007 01 21 – Molucca Sea – M 7.5 Fatalities 4
• 2007 03 06 – Southern Sumatra, Indonesia – M 6.4 Fatalities 67
• 2007 07 26 – Molucca Sea – M 6.9
• 2007 08 08 – Java, Indonesia – M 7.5
• 2007 09 12 – Southern Sumatra, Indonesia – M 8.5 Fatalities 25
• 2007 09 12 – Kepulauan Mentawai region, Indonesia – M 7.9
• 2007 09 20 – Southern Sumatra, Indonesia – M 6.7
• 2007 10 24 – Southern Sumatra, Indonesia – M 6.8
• 2007 11 25 – Sumbawa Region, Indonesia – M 6.5 Fatalities 3
• 2008 02 20 – Simeulue, Indonesia – M 7.4 Fatalities 3
• 2008 02 25 – Kepulauan Mentawai region, Indonesia – M 7.2
• 2008 11 16 – Minahasa, Sulawesi, Indonesia – M 7.4 Fatalities 6
• 2009 01 03 – Near the North Coast of Papua, Indonesia – M 7.7 Fatalities 5
• 2009 01 03 – Near the North Coast of Papua, Indonesia – M 7.4
• 2009 02 11 – Kepulauan Talaud, Indonesia – M 7.2
• 2009 08 16 – Kepulauan Mentawai region, Indonesia – M 6.7
• 2009 08 28 – Banda Sea – M 6.9
• 2009 09 02 – Java, Indonesia – M 7.0 Fatalities 81
• 2009 09 30 – Southern Sumatra, Indonesia – M 7.5 Fatalities 1,117
• 2009 10 01 – Southern Sumatra, Indonesia – M 6.6
• 2009 10 24 – Banda Sea – M 6.9
• 2009 11 08 – Sumbawa region, Indonesia – M 6.6 Fatalities 2

Death Toll Rises in Indonesia Landslide

15 Bodies recovered, up to 70 others believed buried, hundreds displaced

Tropical monsoon rains triggered a massive mudslide on a steep slope of a tea plantation in West Java’s Bandung district on Tuesday morning, burying about 50 houses.

According to the latest reports, the mudslide in Ciwidey area, about 150 km (90 miles) southeast of the Indonesian capital, Jakarta, has also buried a small tea factory, a health center and a mosque, leaving as many as 800 workers displaced.

“Two excavators arrived last night but the digging has mostly been done with hoes,” the National Disaster Mitigation Agency spokesperson said.

Fire-Earth believe that a combination of deforestation, seismic activity and tropical monsoon rains is expected to cause more landslide throughout Indonesia.

The landslide left a trail of raw earth on this steep slope above houses and tea plantation buildings in West Java’s Bandung district. (AFP Photo/Pikiran Rakyat). Image may be subject to copyright. See Fire-Earth Fair Use Notice.

Partial map of Indonesia with Bandung near the center.

Political Map of Indonesia (US Govt). Click image to enlarge.

Related News Links:

• Indonesian Landslide Death Toll, Number Of Missing Rise
• Hundreds of Bandung Plantation Workers Displaced by Disaster

Related Fire-Earth Links:

• West Java landslide buries village, 5 killed, 72 missing

West Java landslide buries village, 5 killed, 72 missing

Massive landslide in West Java, Indonesia, buries village leaving 5 dead and 72 missing

At least five people were killed and 72 others were reported missing following a massive landslide which  buried Ciwidey village in a tea growing area near Bandung, south of Indonesia’s capital, Jakarta, officials were reported as saying.

Flooding in Bandung, West Java, on Sunday.  Photo Credit: Antara

Partial map of Indonesia with Bandung near the center.

Political Map of Indonesia (US Govt). Click image to enlarge.

The landslide buried tea plantation workers’ housing area (barracks), leaving about 500 people homeless earlier this morning.

“It had been raining very heavily since yesterday [Monday] and that probably caused the landslide,” Disaster Management Agency spokesman told the AFP news agency.

“We believe the landslide area could be the size of two football fields. The tea-processing plant and 50 houses were also buried.”

Bandung district has experienced the worst flooding in 8 years, with more than 10,000 houses inundated,  state-run Antara news agency said, AFP reported.

Flooding in Bandung and Jakarta have forced thousands of people out of their homes over the past 10 days.

“The daily activities for Dayeuhkolot residents have been halted because of the floods, reaching heights of between 30 cm and 200 cm in the village.” Antara reported.

A combination of deforestation, seismic activity and tropical monsoon rains is expected to cause more landslide in Indonesia.

Related Links:

• Drought and Deluge: Two Major Mechanisms of Collapse
• Floods Kill 32 on Portuguese Island of Madeira

• Italian Town Buried by Mud Avalanche
• Landslides
• 2010: Year One of Human-Enhanced Disasters
• Extreme Rain Events, Floods, Mudslides 2010
• 2010: The Year of Disasters
• Earthquake, Heavy Rain, Mudslides Strike Peru
• Image of the Day: Landslide in Honduras

Australia Oil Well on Fire

UPDATE: Australia Blazing Oil Rig May Collapse

Australia West Atlas oil well catches fire

ON FIRE: West Atlas drilling rig and the Montara wellhead platform

The oil well which has caused a massive spill in the Timor Sea, off the north west coast of Australia, caught fire on Sunday

PTTEP Australasia, a Thai-based energy  company which operates the well, said the fire broke out as it made another attempt to plug the underwater leak.

After a 10-week leak, West atlas drilling rig and the Montara wellhead platform caught fire on Sunday. Photo AFP via BBC. Image may be subject to copyright.

“Fire broke out on the West Atlas drilling rig and the Montara wellhead platform after the West Triton successfully intercepted the leaking well this morning,” Ferguson said.

“Well kill operations were under way at the time, but have now been suspended. Non-essential personnel are being evacuated from the West Triton.

“Current operations are focused on reducing the intensity of the fire.”

The rig’s Thai-based operator, PTTEP Australasia, said specialists had finally succeeded in the first stage  of plugging the well at 9:30 am (0130 GMT) after weeks of failed attempts.

“They had not actually stopped or killed the leak… and then unfortunately the fire broke out,” AFP reported a company spokeswoman as saying.

For more than 10 weeks the leak has been spewing  oil and gas at at least 400 barrels a day.

Jose Martins, a director at PTTEP Australasia said the only way to extinguish the fire was to plug the leak.

When oil, gas and condensate began seeping into the Timor Sea PTTEP estimated it would take 50 days to plug the well in an area described by Tourism Australia as “one of the world’s last true wilderness areas.” Three previous attempts by PTTEP Australasia to plug the leak, 2.5km below the sea bed, by pumping it full of heavy mud, have failed. Photograph: Debra Glasgow/WWF. Caption: Guardian UK. More Photos…

“The measures which we have been able to take so far can only mitigate the fire. They will not stop the fire.”The best way to stop the fire is to complete the well-kill and stop the flow of gas and oil at the surface from the H-1 well, cutting off the fuel source for the fire.”

Australian Resources Minister Martin Ferguson said in a statement that some of the world’s leading experts were working to fix the leaking well and respond to this latest problem.

Mr Ferguson said the National Offshore Petroleum Safety Authority had been called out to help fight the fire and that Geoscience Australia and the Australian Maritime Safety Authority were on standby.

However Greg Hunt,  an opposition spokesman, has accused Environment Minister Peter Garrett of doing nothing to stop the oil leak.

“Ten weeks of complacency, 10 weeks of drift, 10 weeks of inaction from Mr Garrett,” he said.”In the absence of action… the prime minister must step in and convene a national environmental emergency task force within the next 24 hours.”

“The government remains deeply concerned about this incident,” Ferguson said.

“From day one our top priorities have been the safety of people and the protection of the environment. Stopping the flow of oil and gas safely and as soon as possible remains our prime objective.”

The Australian government on Saturday released a report saying birds and marine species were at risk from the oil spill, but it said the full impact could not be immediately determined. Reuters reported.

“This spill has been a disaster from the outset,” Australian Greens Senator Rachel Siewert said on Sunday.

“Coupled with the environmental impacts of the oil entering the ocean, the potentially hazardous effects of the dispersants being used and the threat to fisheries both here and in Indonesia, now we have a fire on our hands.”

PTTEP plans to produce about 35,000 barrels of oil per day from the Montara field, which should boost its 2009 petroleum sales to 240,000 bpd.

PTTEP operates more than 40 oil and gas projects in 14 countries throughout  the Middle East, Africa and Asia, with Montara as its main exploration and production business, said Reuters.

PTTEP are just as guilty as BP [America.] The difference is that the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA), the main federal agency charged with the enforcement of safety and health legislation, do their jobs, whereas Aussie authorities sit on their thumbs.

When the US govt takes BP to the cleaners, shouldn’t Australia show some grit, too?

Related News Links:

• The oil spill in Timor Sea grows daily
• Timor Sea oil spill costs $5.3m – so far
• First attempt to plug oil leak fails
• Second attempt to plug oil leak fails

• Expedition observes hundreds of marine creatures in oil slick
  http://wwf.org.au/news/expedition-observes-hundreds-of-marine-creatures-in-oil-slick/

• Australian oil spill ‘contaminating one of world’s richest marine wildernesses’
  http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/oct/23/australia-oil-spill?commentpage=1

Related Links:

• Australian ecological disaster

• Timor Sea Oil Slick: Growing Australian Disaster
• Major Ecological Disaster Underway in Timor Sea
• Australian Oil Disaster May Get a Lot Worse

• Australia Fails to Plug Oil Leak in Timor Sea
• How Much Oil Pollution Is Too Much?
• FEWW Earthquake Forecast: Timor Sea

Recent Oil Spills:

• Gulf of Mexico receives its regular ration of oil spill
• Oil Spills, Earthquakes and Faults

• Magnitude 6.8 EQ Strikes BANDA SEA
• Deadly Earthquake Strikes Java, Indonesia
• Exxon Pays Peanuts to the Monkeys

• 4m liters of crude spill into French nature reserve
• Old MacDonald Had a Fleet
• Shell Leaks in Shabby Style!
• Exxon Mobile Court Orders Only Fraction of Damages
• Another Day, Another Oil Spill in Alaska

• Chevron should pay $27 billion in compensation
• US Govt Sues BP America
• Australia hit by another man-made disaster
• Large spill at Canada’s oil sands terminal

El Niño Update [20 Oct 2009]

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  19  October 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

• Niño 4   ~ 1.2ºC
• Niño 3.4  ~ 0.9ºC
• Niño 3 ~ 0.7ºC
• Niño 1+2 ~ 0.0ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 140°W and in small areas in the eastern Pacific.

Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
for the Last Four Weeks•During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central Pacific Ocean.•During the last month, equatorial SST anomalies decreased over parts of the eastern Pacific and increased over the central Pacific.

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
During mid August through September, an anomalous trough was prevalent in the North Pacific Ocean/Gulf of Alaska. During September, an anomalous ridge was present downstream, focused over Canada and the northern United States. The pattern also featured a weak trough over the central U.S., which contributed to below-average temperatures in the region, while the northern U.S. and Canada remained warmer-than-average. Recently, an anomalous ridge has developed in the Gulf of Alaska with a downstream trough contributing to below-average temperatures across much of the U.S. and Canada.

Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

• Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

• The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to greater than +2.0°C), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10. Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 15 Oct 2009).

SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 18 October 2009
The CFS ensemble mean predicts El Niño will last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Summary

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.

Related Links:

• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams
• El Niño Forecasts

El Niño Updates:

• El Niño [Main Page and Archive]

Weekly VolcanoWatch [11 June 2009]

Volcanic Activity Report:  3 June – 9 June 2009

Source: Global Volcanism program (GVP) – SI/USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report

New activity/unrest:

• Galeras, Colombia
• Karangetang [Api Siau], Siau I [Indonesia]
• Sangeang Api, Lesser Sunda Islands (Indonesia)
• Slamet, Central Java (Indonesia)

FEWW Volcanic Activity Forecast:

[Continued from 4 June 2009 bulletin]

FEWW Moderators forecast  new volcanic activity/ unrest at 50 or more volcanoes throughout the rest of 2009.

List of the volcanoes to watch this year [and in 2010] includes:

Barcena (0.8), Socorro (0.8), Curacoa (0.99), Atitlán (0.65), Vesuvius (>0.6), Bazman (0.6), Mount Shasta (>0.5), Kaba (>0.5), Bandai (>0.5), Eastern Gemini Seamount or Mathew Island volcano (0.65), Fonualei (0.65), Mount Rainier (>0.5), Jan Mayen (>0.6), Thule (0.4), Sibayak (>0.5), Volcán Guallatiri (0.65), Taveuni (>0.4),  two or more volcanoes on the island of Hokkaido (0.65), E-san (0.7), Oshima-Oshima (0.7), Komaga-take (0.65)… Protector Shoal (0.75), Thule Islands (0.7), Tina Kula (0.8)

Figure in the brackets indicate probability of activity/unrest.

For other forecasts see also:

• Sumatra’s Mt Kerinci Erupts
• Hunga Ha’apai Volcano Update

• Weekly Volcano Watch: 19 March 2009
• 60 pct Chance Redoubt May Erupt
• Tonga’s Metis Shoal may be erupting

• Earthquake Cluster Zone Closing in on New Zealand
• Magnitude 7 Earthquake Hits Kermadec Islands
• Mt Ruapehu Eruption Alert

• No Doubt about Redoubt Volcano!
• Tonga’s Metis Shoal may be erupting
• Alaska’s Redoubt May Be About to Erupt
• Chaitén: Volcano with a Mission?

Ongoing Activity:

• Batu Tara, Komba Island (Indonesia)
• Chaitén, Southern Chile
• Dukono, Halmahera  (North Maluku province of Indonesia)
• Fuego, Guatemala
• Karymsky, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia)
• Kelut, Eastern Java (Indonesia)
• Kilauea, Hawaii (USA)
• Llaima, Central Chile
• Manam, Northeast of New Guinea (SW Pacific)
• Pacaya, Guatemala
• Popocatépetl, México
• Rabaul, New Britain
• Redoubt, Southwestern Alaska
• Sakura-jima, Kyushu
• Santa María, Guatemala
• Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia)
• Tungurahua, Ecuador
• Ubinas, Perú

Latest U.S. Volcano Alerts and Updates  – Local time: June 10, 2009 22:05 AKDT (June 11, 2009 0605 UTC)

• Redoubt Activity – Color Code ORANGE : Alert Level WATCH

• Kilauea Activity  –  Color Code ORANGE : Alert Level WATCH

• Mauna Loa Activity – Color Code YELLOW : Alert Level ADVISORY

Redoubt Volcano Latest Observations

2009-06-10 19:34:49 – The 2009 eruption of Redoubt continues. The seismic activity at Redoubt remains low, but above background levels.  The webcam images from DFR and the Hut show a clear view of the dome and associated steaming.  AVO continues to monitor Redoubt’s activity 24/7. (Source: AVO)

Related Links:

• U.S. Volcano Status Map
• Elevated Activity Page
• U.S. Volcano Webcams

• Volcanoes [FEWW Links]
• Earthquakes

Sumatra’s Mt Kerinci Erupts

Sumatra’s Mt Kerinci volcano erupts at least 3 times

Mount Kerinci, the highest mountain in Sumatra, is undergoing a period of unrest, punctuated by at least three explosive eruption, spewing smoke and ash into the air.

The local volcano observation monitor also reported  repeated tremors at the base of the volcano.

Two explosive eruptions were reported Sunday and Monday, spewing smoke and ash to a height of about 400m with ash covering the tea plantations on the mountain slope and posing a threat to the populated areas below.

Another, less powerful, explosion reportedly occurred earlier today.

The head of Mount Kerinci Observation Post was reported as saying that Kerinci volcano has been showing signs of unrest in the past week.

“We have warned local people to remain cautious. We told them it’s better to wear mask when going outdoor,” he said.

One of the most active volcanoes  in Indonesia, the 3,800-meter high Mt. Kerinci, a stratovolcano,  sits on the border of Jambi and West Sumatra .

Related Links:

• Sumatran volcano shows intensified volcanic activity
  http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2009/04/21/sumatran-volcano-shows-intensified-volcanic-activity.html

Kerinci

Country: Indonesia
Region: Sumatra
Volcano Type: Stratovolcano
Last Known Eruption: 2008
Summit Elevation: 3,800m  (12,467 feet)
Latitude: 1.697°S    (1°41’50″S)
Longitude: 101.264°E  (101°15’52″E)

Mount Kerinci, Sumatra, Indonesia. Photo: Tom Casadevall/USGS (1987).

The unvegetated summit of 3800-m-high Gunung Kerinci in central Sumatra, Indonesia’s highest volcano, is seen from Pengamatan on its southern flank. Kerinci is one of the most active volcanoes in Sumatra and has been the source of numerous moderate explosive eruptions since its first recorded eruption in 1838. The massive 13 x 25 km wide volcano towers 2400-3300 m above surrounding plains and is elongated in a N-S direction. Photo by Umar Rosadi, 2005 (Centre of Volcanology & Geological Hazard Mitigation, Volcanological Survey of Indonesia). Caption: GVP

FEWW Volcanic Forecast:

1. The Loyalty – New Hebrides  Arc Collision. Intense volcanic activity should be expected throughout 2009 and beyond along the New Hebrides arc, the Vanatu region (also to the north to include Solomon Island and Santa Cruz Island), possibly continued along the New Hebrides Trench (to include Matthew and Hunter Island). Volcanoes that are located in the above-described area include:

• Savo (Solomon Island)
• Tinakula (Santa Cruz Island – SW Pacific)
• Suretamatai
• Motlav
• Gaua
• Mere Lava
• Aoba
• Ambrym
• Lopevi
• Kuwae
• North Vate
• Traitor’s Head
• Yasur
• Eastern Gemini Seamount
• Matthew Island
• Hunter Island

2. Pacific Plate subduction beneath the Okhotsk Plate. Subduction of the Pacific Plate beneath the Okhotsk Plate continues to create Intense volcanism. Starting 2009, however, a much greaterthan the average number of volcanoes located on the Kuril Islands island arc, Kamchatka volcanic arc and Japan trench to the south may erupt with renewed intensity.

Related Link and FEWW previous forecasts:

• Weekly Volcano Watch: 16 April 2009
• Weekly Volcano Watch: 2 April 2009

Indonesian Dam Burst Killing Dozens of People

Indonesian Dam Burst floods hundreds of homes, with 150 people killed or missing

A “horrifying” tsunami-like wave of water about 4m (13ft) high submerged hundreds of homes, with an estimated 150 people killed or missing in the suburb of Cirendeu in the Tangerang district near Jakarta, capital of Indonesia.

“This disaster happened so suddenly,” Danang Susanto, an official with the health ministry’s crisis centre, told AFP. “Because people were sleeping they couldn’t get away.”

It’s believed the death toll would rise because  many houses remained submerged; about 100 people are reportedly missing.

“The dam burst happened at 2:00am (1900 UTC, March 26, 2009) but before that there was heavy rain and wind, many trees were uprooted,” he added.

“Many people are still trapped and the rescue is ongoing. We’ve sent out 10 rubber boats to evacuate the victims.”

The 10-meter-high dam, built on the Pesanggrahan river, held about 2 million cubic meter of water and was more than 100 years old,  according to a city official.

A dam burst its banks near Jakarta, sending tsunami-like waves of muddy water crashing into a suburb of the Indonesian capital. Image AFP. Image may be subject to copyright.

Rescuers carry a flood victims on the outskirts of Jakarta where a dam burst killing up to 150 people and flooding hundreds of houses. REUTERS/Dadang Tri. Image may be subject to copyright.

Crowded suburb of Jakarta reduced to a pile of ruble and buried in mud. Up to a 150 people  are feared dead. Image AFP. Image may be subject to copyright.

A dam burst on the outskirts of Jakarta, with up to 150 people killed or missing. Image AFP. Image may be subject to copyright.

Images of the Day: Despair in Palopo, Sulawesi island

A Shrinking World!

A woman cries as she flees from her damaged house in Palopo November 5, 2008. Nearly one thousand families have been affected by floods following heavy rains in Indonesia’s Sulawesi island, an official said on Wednesday, with several casualties and damage to homes.  REUTERS/Yusuf Ahmad. Image may be subject to copyright.