Japan Earthquake Forecast

Japan Region Earthquakes: Currently Valid Forecasts by FIRE-EARTH

• TOKYO AREA QUAKE WARNING Posted by feww on March 16, 2011

• Global Tectonics Alert – April 9: JPTRMT1

A Note to Seismologists at Tokyo University and Tohoku University, Japan

FIRE-EARTH MODERATORS STRONGLY URGE YOU TO PRODUCE  ORIGINAL RESEARCH AND REFRAIN FROM PIGGYBACK RIDING ON OUR FORECASTS.

ONCE AGAIN, YOU HAVE MADE US EXTREMELY RELUCTANT TO POST ANY FUTURE EARTHQUAKE FORECAST.

Staff at Research Center for Prediction of Earthquakes & Volcanic Eruptions, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University are strongly advised to focus on probability of the next major earthquake in China.

Related Links:

• Tectonics Update – January 28: Large Quake Measuring about 8.3Mw Could Strike Near Iwaki, Japan: FIRE-EARTH – [Suspended]
• Earthquake Forecast: Tokyo, Japan Posted by feww on May 18, 2009
• Tectonics Update – March 10
• Fukushima at increased earthquake risk [European Geosciences Union]
• Big Tokyo Quake Forecast by 2016  [Researchers at Tokyo University’s Earthquake Research Institute]

FIRE-EARTH Forecast

Large Earthquake Could Strike Tokyo Area

Megaqauke measuring up to 9.2Mw could strike Tokyo / Chiba Area:  FIRE-EARTH Forecast [Posted by feww on March 16, 2011]

Details of Earthquake Forecast:

• Magnitude: 8.8Mw [Uncertainty= ±0.4Mw]
• Location: 50 – 150km radius of Tokyo Bay Area
• Depth: 24km [Uncertainty= N/A]
• Occurrence Time:
  • Between now and November 2011 [Probability = 0.70]
  • Between December 2011 and October 2012 [Probability = 0.64]
  • Between November 2012  and December 2016 [Probability = 0.78]

• Notes:
  • This forecast may be affected by SEISMIC CHAIN REACTIONS IN JAPAN REGION
  • For background, see summary of FIRE-EARTH Forecasts: Japan Earthquakes Posted on March 13, 2011
  • NEXT MAJOR TECTONICS EVENT COULD OCCUR IN THE U.S.
  • NEW FORECAST: As Many as 4 Large Earthquakes Could  Strike Japan Region by 2015
  • Waves of Intense Seismic Activity Could Strike Eastern Honshu, Japan
  • Fire-Earth Quake Forecast: Japan Earthquakes
  • Fire Earth Model shows that Japan region could be struck by up to 4 additional strong to large earthquakes possibly this year/early next year, one of which could be a catastrophic event.
  • FIRE-EARTH forecasts intense seismic activity in Japan Region during the 2011 – 2015 period.

Tokyo University Seismologists

70% chance of big Tokyo earthquake ‘within 4 yrs’

The Yomiuri Shimbun —  There is a 70 percent probability the Tokyo metropolitan area will be hit directly by a strong earthquake of magnitude-7 level within four years, according to data compiled by a University of Tokyo research team.

The preliminary calculations conducted by a team from the university’s Earthquake Research Institute were based on intensified seismic activity in the area after the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11.

The findings are more dire than a similar estimate by the central government’s Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, which states there is a 70 percent chance a quake of the same scale will hit the southern Kanto region, including the metropolitan area, within 30 years.

The central government’s Central Disaster Management Council assumes 18 different hypocenters of magnitude-7 level earthquakes, such as in southern Ibaraki Prefecture and the Tachikawa fault zone.

If a magnitude-7.3 earthquake occurs directly under northern Tokyo Bay, as many as 11,000 people are expected to die and about 850,000 buildings to be rendered totally unusable or destroyed by fire.

According to the Meteorological Agency’s observations, after the March 11 disaster, earthquakes of magnitude 3 to 6 occurred an average of 1.48 times a day in the metropolitan area through December. This was about five times the pre-disaster average.

Prof. Naoshi Hirata of the university’s research institute and others based their calculations on the rule of thumb that the frequency of earthquakes is inversely proportional to their strength. For every increase in magnitude of one, the frequency of their occurrence falls by 90 percent.

The metropolitan area was hit by the magnitude-8 level Great Kanto Earthquake in 1923. Five weaker but still serious earthquakes of magnitude-7 level also hit an area extending from southern Ibaraki Prefecture to the Uraga Channel over a period of about 120 years.

The government’s earthquake headquarters obtained its quake estimate data based on the intervals of these quakes in the past. The data did not incorporate the increased seismic activity after the March 11 disaster.

Experts believe seismic activity in the metropolitan area has been intensified by changes in the movements of the Earth’s crust since March 11.

“Intensified seismic activity will continue from several to 10 more years,” Hirata said. “It’s highly probable a strong quake with a magnitude of about 7 will occur during that time.  (Jan. 24, 2012)

Significant Quake Rattles Tokyo Area

Magnitude 5.5 Quake in Ibaraki Pref Rattles a Vast Area

The 5.5Mw quake, epicentered at 36.3N, 140.1E, struck about 59 km NNE of Tokyo at a depth of 60 km at 21:01 JST (UTC + 9 hrs) on 15 July 15, 2011, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) said.

There was NO tsunami associated with this quake.

Distances [USGS]

• 47 km (29 miles) WSW (239°) from Mito, Honshu, Japan
• 59 km (37 miles) NNE (25°) from TOKYO, Japan
• 91 km (56 miles) ESE (108°) from Maebashi, Honshu, Japan

Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS-EHP

Japan Earthquake Forecasts

• Japan Mega Quake Warning Posted  on July 10, 2011

• TOKYO AREA QUAKE WARNING Posted on March 16, 2011
• FIRE-EARTH Forecasts: Japan Earthquakes Posted on March 13, 2011
• MEGA QUAKE STRIKES NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU
• Tectonics Update – March 10
• Strong Earthquake Strikes East of Honshu, Japan Posted on June 13, 2010
• M6.5 Strikes East Coast of Honshu, Japan Posted on July 5, 2010
• Honshu Earthquake Warning Posted  on November 10, 2010

Related Links

• Magnitude 7.1 Quake Strikes Off Sanriku, Japan
• Japan Earthquakes, Disasters: Recent History and FIRE-EARTH Forecasts

• FEWW Volcano Links
• Volcanoes
• FEWW Earthquake Links

Japan Triple Disasters – Update 19 April

Great East Japan Earthquake: 92 percent of the March 11 victims died of drowning

Japan authorities have revealed that 92 percent of the victims of Great East Japan Earthquake, whose bodies have so far been recovered, died of drowning as a result of the deadly tsunami that was spawned by the Mega Quake in the Tohoku region on March 11.

Human Cost of Japan’s March 11 Disasters

• Death toll: About 14,000
• No. of Missing: Just over 14,000
• Main Cause of Death:  About 92% of the victims died of drowning in the tsunami
• Age Distribution: About two-thirds of the victims were aged 65 or older
• Source: NHK

Other Stats:

• No. of Homeless: At least 155,000 [Many others who have moved in with their relatives are NOT included in the govt stats.]
• Others Missing: In addition to the 14,030 people who are officially missing, an unknown number of others who lived in remote, inaccessible  areas may also have perished, but no records were available as of posting.

Fukushima Nuclear Disaster

Technicians at Fukushima NPP have begun removing highly radioactive water  from basement of Reactor 2 .

Authorities say a total of 70,000 tons of radioactive water is accumulated in the plant’s reactor and turbine buildings, and surrounding trenches.

Remote-controlled robots sent into reactor buildings 1, 2 and 3 on Sunday and Monday showed  radiation levels inside two of the units (1 and 3) were too high for humans.

A remote-controlled robot dubbed “Packbot,” capable of manoeuvring through buildings, taking photos, and measuring radiation levels, is photographed by another Packbot in the stricken Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant No.1 reactor building in Fukushima, N. Japan on April 18, 2011. Photo released by Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TEPCO) on April 19, 2011. TEPCO handout photo via Reuters.

Other News

“It was clear even before this disaster and the need to secure funds for reconstruction that to ensure a sustainable fiscal situation, some sort of reform of spending and revenues was necessary,” said Internal Affairs Minister Yoshiro Katayama. “The debate over the fiscal situation is not something that began with this disaster,” he told reporters.

• Sales tax May rise to pay for post-quake rebuild

A Japanese restaurant in Auckland, New Zealand has attached bells to its charity donation buckets after a thief stole cash intended for Japan’s earthquake and tsunami victims, a report said. “At least seven donation buckets in Japanese businesses around Auckland have been filched recently.”

Related Links

• Japan Earthquakes, Disasters: Recent History and FIRE-EARTH Forecasts

Japan nuclear disaster to last nine more months

NEW LEAKS MAY BE RAISING RADIATION in SEA

Nuclear disaster at Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant may continue for another nine months: TEPCO

Tokyo Electric Power Company, the operator of Japan’s stricken nuclear power plant Fukushima Dai-ichi says it planned to reduce radiation leaks in 3 months and to cool the reactors within another six months, NHK reported. 

“This is the biggest crisis since the founding of our company,” TEPCO Chairman Tsunehisa Katsumata said at a a news conference.

“Getting the nuclear plant under control, and the financial problems associated with that.” He added

“How we can overcome these problems is a difficult matter.”

The conference was broadcast by NHK amid reports that radiation levels in the seawater near Reactor 2 had risen to 6,500 times the legal limit on Friday, about 6 times higher than Thursday’s reading. TEPCO fears that the rise may be due to new leaks.

On April 12, Japanese authorities raised the measure of severity of the Fukushima NPP disaster to the maximum level of 7 on INES. (See below for details.)

The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES)

The INES, a logarithmic scale, which was introduced in 1990 by the IAEA to enable prompt communication, classifies the intensity of nuclear incidents as follows:

7 – Major Accident [Chernobyl disaster, criticality accident, April 1986]

6 – Serious Accident [e.g., Kyshtym incident, Mayak, former Soviet Union, steam explosion released up to 80 tons of highly radioactive material into the atmosphere, September 1957. ]

5 – Accident With Wider Consequences [e.g., Three Mile Island accident  Pen State, U.S., partial meltdown release radioactive gases  into the environment, March 1979.]

4 – Accident With Local Consequences [e.g., Sellafield, UK, at least 5 incidents reported between 1955 to 1979]

3 – Serious Incident [e.g., Vandellos NPP, Spain, fire destroyed control systems; the reactor was shut down, July1989]

2 – Incident [e.g., Forsmark NPP, Sweden, a backup generator failed, July 2006]

1 – Anomaly [e.g., TNPC, France, 1,600 gallons of water containing 75 kilograms (170 lb) of uranium leaked into the environment,  July 2008]

0 – Deviation (No Safety Significance) [e.g., Atucha, Argentina – Reactor shutdown caused by tritium increase in reactor encasement, December 2006.]

Probability of a Nuclear Disaster by Country

THIS SECTION HAS BEEN REVISED AND POSTED AT

Probability of a Nuclear Disaster – by Country

on April 18, 2011

Notes:

1. The list represents a snapshot of events at the time of calculating the probabilities. Any forecast posted  here is subject to numerous variable factors.
2. Figures in the bracket represent the probability of an incident occurring out of 1,000; the forecast duration is valid for the next 50  months.
3. Probability includes a significant worsening of Fukushima nuclear disaster, and future quakes forecast for Japan.
4. A nuclear incident is defined as a level 5 (Accident With Wider Consequences), or worse, on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES). See below.
5. Safety issues considered in compiling these lists include the age, number of units and capacity of nuclear reactors in each country/state, previous incidents, probability of damage from human-enhanced natural disasters, e.g., earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic activity, hurricanes, tornadoes, storms, wildfires, flooding… ]
6. The  Blog’s knowledge concerning the extent to which the factors described in (3) might worsen during the forecast period greatly influences the forecast.

Japan’s Triple Disaster: Human Cost

• Official Death Toll: ~ 14,000
• Missing:  ~ 14,000
• Homeless: At least 155,000
• Others: In addition to the above, an unknown number of people in remote areas may have perished, but no records are available as of posting.

Related Links

• Global Tectonics Alert – April 9
• Japan Earthquakes, Disasters: Recent History and FIRE-EARTH Forecasts

Fukushima Nuclear Plant Rattled by M6.3 Quake

JAPAN MUST DECOMMISSION ALL NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS NOW !

WARNING: JPTRMT1

Another Strong Shock Rattles Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant

The latest shock measuring 6.3Mw struck about 53km SW of the crippled Fukushima NPP, and 29km west of Iwaki city at a depth of 10km.

EQ details release by JMA

Occurred at (JST)	Latitude (degree)	Longitude (degree)	Depth	Magnitude	Region Name
14:07 JST 12 Apr 2011	37.0N	140.7E	10 km	6.3	Fukushima-ken Hamadori

Distances (USGS)

• 29 km (18 miles) W (280°) from Iwaki, Honshu, Japan
• 70 km (43 miles) S (172°) from Fukushima, Honshu, Japan
• 83 km (52 miles) N (6°) from Mito, Honshu
• 177 km (110 miles) NNE (25°) from TOKYO

Earthquake Location Map: JMA

Earthquake Location Map: USGS

Note: JPTRMT1 is an acronym for Japan Trench Megathrust Earthquake No.1

Japan Nuclear Disaster Update

Japanese authorities have finally raised the measure of severity of the Fukushima NPP disaster to the maximum level of 7 on INES, officials said in an NHK telecast.

Japanese government’s Nuclear Safety Commission had earlier revealed that the amount of radioactive iodine 131 released from Fukushima NPP had reached 10,000 terabecquerels per hour, for several hours at one stage, a level that prompted classification of the breach as a Major Accident [level 7 on INES, e.g, Chernobyl disaster, criticality accident, April 1986, see below,] Kyodo news reported.

The radiation level has subsequently fallen  to about one terabecquerel per hour, a report said.

“We have upgraded the severity level to seven as the impact of radiation leaks has been widespread from the air, vegetables, tap water and the ocean,” said a spokesman for Japan’s Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA).

Radiation leaks from the stricken nuclear plant have not stopped completely and could exceed the  Chernobyl release 25 years ago, an TEPCO official said, NHK reported.

Japan’s Triple Disaster: Human Cost

• Official Death Toll: 13,133
• Missing:  14,345
• Homeless: At least 155,000
• Others: In addition to the above, an unknown number of people in remote areas may have perished, but no records are available as of posting.

The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES)

The INES, a logarithmic scale, which was introduced in 1990 by the IAEA to enable prompt communication, classifies the intensity of nuclear incidents as follows:

7 – Major Accident [Chernobyl disaster, criticality accident, April 1986]

6 – Serious Accident [e.g., Kyshtym incident, Mayak, former Soviet Union, steam explosion released up to 80 tons of highly radioactive material into the atmosphere, September 1957. ]

5 – Accident With Wider Consequences [e.g., Three Mile Island accident  Pen State, U.S., partial meltdown release radioactive gases  into the environment, March 1979.]

4 – Accident With Local Consequences [e.g., Sellafield, UK, at least 5 incidents reported between 1955 to 1979]

3 – Serious Incident [e.g., Vandellos NPP, Spain, fire destroyed control systems; the reactor was shut down, July1989]

2 – Incident [e.g., Forsmark NPP, Sweden, a backup generator failed, July 2006]

1 – Anomaly [e.g., TNPC, France, 1,600 gallons of water containing 75 kilograms (170 lb) of uranium leaked into the environment,  July 2008]

0 – Deviation (No Safety Significance) [e.g., Atucha, Argentina – Reactor shutdown caused by tritium increase in reactor encasement, December 2006.]

Probability of a Nuclear Disaster by Country

The following probability figures are calculated by FIRE-EARTH on April 8, 2011

THIS SECTION HAS BEEN REVISED AND POSTED AT

Probability of a Nuclear Disaster – by Country

on April 18, 2011

Notes:

1. The list represents a snapshot of events at the time of calculating the probabilities. Any forecast posted  here is subject to numerous variable factors.
2. Figures in the bracket represent the probability of an incident occurring out of 1,000; the forecast duration is valid for the next 50  months.
3. Probability includes a significant worsening of Fukushima nuclear disaster, and future quakes forecast for Japan.
4. A nuclear incident is defined as a level 5 (Accident With Wider Consequences), or worse, on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES). See below.
5. Safety issues considered in compiling these lists include the age, number of units and capacity of nuclear reactors in each country/state, previous incidents, probability of damage from human-enhanced natural disasters, e.g., earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic activity, hurricanes, tornadoes, storms, wildfires, flooding… ]
6. The  Blog’s knowledge concerning the extent to which the factors described in (3) might worsen during the forecast period greatly influences the forecast.

Related Links

• M6.3 Quake Strikes 77km ESE Tokyo
• M7.1 Quake Strikes Eastern Honshu, Japan Posted on April 11, 2011
• Global Tectonics Alert – April 9
• Japan Earthquakes, Disasters: Recent History and FIRE-EARTH Forecasts

M6.3 Quake Strikes 77km ESE Tokyo

YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED: JPTRMT1

JAPAN MUST DECOMMISSION ALL NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS NOW !

Strong Earthquake Strikes Near the East Coast of Honshu, Japan

The 6.3Mw quake,which occurred at 08:08 JST (Monday, April 11, 2011 at 23:08 UTC), was epicentered at 35.4ºN, 141.0ºE and struck at a depth of about 30km, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) said.

The quake reportedly swayed buildings in Tokyo and shut down runways at Narita international airport.

Yesterday’s 7.1Mw quake killed at least 1 person and knock out power to about a quarter of a million households, Japanese authorities reported earlier.

Earthquake Location Map

Note: JPTRMT1 is an acronym for Japan Trench Megathrust Earthquake No.1

Japan Nuclear Disaster

Meanwhile, Tokyo Electric power Company (TEPCO) announced that its technicians  were fighting a fire near Reactor 4 at the stricken Fukushima NPP earlier today, amid reports that the country was raising its nuclear disaster alert to the maximum level.

Japanese government’s Nuclear Safety Commission has now revealed that the amount of radioactive iodine 131 released from Fukushima NPP had reached 10,000 terabecquerels per hour, for several hours at one stage, a level that classifies the breach as a Major Accident [level 7 on INES, e.g, Chernobyl disaster, criticality accident, April 1986, see below,] Kyodo news reported.

Iodine 131 is believed to have caused the high incidence of thyroid cancer among children living near the Chernobyl plant when the 1986 nuclear disaster occurred.

Reactor 3 at TEPCO’s crippled Fukushima Daiichi NPP is seen in this frame grab  from a video clip  by an unmanned helicopter on April 10, 2011. Image by TEPCO/Handout/ via Reuters

Japan’s Triple Disaster: Human Cost

• Official Death Toll: 13,127
• Missing:  14,348
• Homeless: At least 155,000
• Others: In addition to the above, an unknown number of people in remote areas may have perished, but no records are available as of posting.

The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES)

The INES, a logarithmic scale, which was introduced in 1990 by the IAEA to enable prompt communication, classifies the intensity of nuclear incidents as follows:

7 – Major Accident [Chernobyl disaster, criticality accident, April 1986]

6 – Serious Accident [e.g., Kyshtym incident, Mayak, former Soviet Union, steam explosion released up to 80 tons of highly radioactive material into the atmosphere, September 1957. ]

5 – Accident With Wider Consequences [e.g., Three Mile Island accident  Pen State, U.S., partial meltdown release radioactive gases  into the environment, March 1979.]

4 – Accident With Local Consequences [e.g., Sellafield, UK, at least 5 incidents reported between 1955 to 1979]

3 – Serious Incident [e.g., Vandellos NPP, Spain, fire destroyed control systems; the reactor was shut down, July1989]

2 – Incident [e.g., Forsmark NPP, Sweden, a backup generator failed, July 2006]

1 – Anomaly [e.g., TNPC, France, 1,600 gallons of water containing 75 kilograms (170 lb) of uranium leaked into the environment,  July 2008]

0 – Deviation (No Safety Significance) [e.g., Atucha, Argentina – Reactor shutdown caused by tritium increase in reactor encasement, December 2006.]

Probability of a Nuclear Disaster by Country

The following probability figures are calculated by FIRE-EARTH

THIS SECTION HAS BEEN REVISED AND POSTED AT

Probability of a Nuclear Disaster – by Country

on April 18, 2011

Notes:

1. The list represents a snapshot of events at the time of calculating the probabilities. Any forecast posted  here is subject to numerous variable factors.
2. Figures in the bracket represent the probability of an incident occurring out of 1,000; the forecast duration is valid for the next 50  months.
3. Probability includes a significant worsening of Fukushima nuclear disaster, and future quakes forecast for Japan.
4. A nuclear incident is defined as a level 5 (Accident With Wider Consequences), or worse, on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES). See below.
5. Safety issues considered in compiling these lists include the age, number of units and capacity of nuclear reactors in each country/state, previous incidents, probability of damage from human-enhanced natural disasters, e.g., earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic activity, hurricanes, tornadoes, storms, wildfires, flooding… ]
6. The  Blog’s knowledge concerning the extent to which the factors described in (3) might worsen during the forecast period greatly influences the forecast.

Will the Scope of Fukushima Nuclear Disaster Widen?

Posted on April 6, 2011 UPDATED at 13:00UTC

Based on the information available, FIRE-EARTH believes there’s a strong probability that the extent of Fukushima nuclear disaster could widen to directly impact large population centers in Japan up to a 250 – 300km radius of the plant, which includes Tokyo Metropolitan Area.

The reactor vessel or sections of its attachments in one or more of the severely damaged reactors at the plant could explode releasing humongous amounts of radiation into the environment [Probability ≥66% as of posting,] dwarfing the Chernobyl disaster by a massive factor.

What is a lethal dose of radiation from a single Exposure?

Studies of the 1945 atomic bombing at Hiroshima and Nagasaki show that 100 percent of victims whose bodies were exposed to 600,000 millirems (6,000 mSv) died from radiation. About 50 percent of victims who received  450,000 millirems (4,500 mSv) of radiation also died.

(Note: Rem is a unit of ionizing radiation equal to the amount that produces the same damage to humans as one roentgen of high-voltage x-rays.  Source: MIT)

1 rem = 10 mSv  (1 Sv = 100 rem)

Background Radiation in millirems per year (mrem/yr)

• Average background radiation (US):  300
• Higher altitudes (e.g, Denver): 400

“Safe Levels” of Radiation (U.S.)

Limits above natural background radiation levels (average 300 millirems per year) and medical radiation:

• Occupation Limit: Maximum of 5,000  (the limit for a worker using radiation)
• Average Natural Background: 300

[Note: Lifetime cumulative exposure should be limited to a person’s age multiplied by 1,000 millirems, e.g., a 70-year-old person, 70,000 millirems.]

Adults

• Max single dose for an adult: 3,000
• Annual total dose: 5,000

Under 18

• Max single dose for a person aged under 18 years: 300 millirems (whole body equivalent)
• Annual total exposure: 500

Fetal Exposure

• Maximum limit for fetal exposure during gestation period:  50 millirems per month above background levels

Medical

• Single Chest X-ray (the whole body equivalent): 2 millirem

Air Travel

• Coast-to-coast US round trip flight: 12 millirems

*Note:  Radiation dose of about 2,000 millisieverts (200,000 millirems) cause serious illness.

Half-life of some radioactive elements

[NOTE: Half-life is the time taken for a radioactive substance to decay by half.]

• Cesium-134 ~ 2  years
• Cesium-137 ~ 30 years
• Iodine-131 ~ 8 days
• Plutonium-239 ~ 24,200 years

• Ruthenium-103 ~ 39 days [Ruthenium is a fission product of uranium-235.]
• Ruthenium-106 ~ 374 days
• Strontium-90 ~ 28.85 years  [Strontium-90 is a product of nuclear fission and is found in large amounts in spent nuclear fuel and in radioactive waste from nuclear reactors.]

• Uranium-234 ~  246,000 years
• Uranium-235 ~ 703.8  million years
• Uranium-238  ~ 4.468 billion years

Related Links

• M7.1 Quake Strikes Eastern Honshu, Japan Posted on April 11, 2011
• Global Tectonics Alert – April 9
• Japan Earthquakes, Disasters: Recent History and FIRE-EARTH Forecasts

M7.1 Quake Strikes Eastern Honshu, Japan

YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED: JPTRMT1

Powerful Quake Strikes Eastern Honshu on One-Month Anniversary of  Great East Japan Earthquake

JAPAN MUST DECOMMISSION ITS NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS NOW !

The quake measuring 7.1Mw struck at a depth of 10km about 160 km NNE of Tokyo, and 37km W of Iwaki city in Fukushima prefecture.

The powerful quake shook buildings in Tokyo and a large area of eastern Honshu, Japan’s main island.

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) reported the earthquake details as follows:

Occurred at (JST)	Latitude (degree)	Longitude (degree)	Depth	Magnitude	Region Name
17:16 JST 11 Apr 2011	36.9N	140.7E	10 km	7.1	Fukushima-ken Hamadori

Significant Aftershocks

As of 12:00UTC

Source: JMA

Earthquake Location Maps

Fukushima Nuclear Disaster

The powerful quake, which was followed by a tsunami warning, forced technicians to flee the stricken Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP. The latest shock struck amid reports that Japanese authorities were considering to extend the evacuation zone around NPP because of “prolonged exposure to radiation” in several areas.

The villages and towns outside the 20 km evacuation zone that have accumulated radiation will be evacuated, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano Edano said at a daily news conference.

The decision to enlarge the evacuation zone around the Fukushima plant is “based on data analysis of accumulated radiation exposure information,” he said.

“These new evacuation plans are meant to ensure safety against risks of living there for half a year or one year,” he said, adding that there was no need for immediate evacuations.

Japan’s Triple Disaster: Human Cost

• Official Death Toll: 13,127
• Missing:  14,348
• Homeless: At least 155,000
• Others: In addition to the above, an unknown number of people in remote areas may have perished, but no records are available as of posting.

Related Links

• Global Tectonics Alert – April 9
• Japan Earthquakes, Disasters: Recent History and FIRE-EARTH Forecasts

Global Tectonics Alert – April 9

JPTRMT1

This is an amendment to an earlier release dated April 8, 2011

Japan Earthquake Forecast

FIRE-EARTH estimates that about 80 exajoules (EJ) of tectonic stress energy could be accumulated in Japan Region between now and early 2016.

Most of the energy is forecast to be released as large earthquakes including a massive shock, a Megathrust earthquake, the largest on record, measuring 10.0+Mw releasing about 64EJ of energy.

[NOTE: The 1960 Valdivia earthquake (The Great Chilean Earthquake) is the largest ever earthquake recorded measuring 9.5Mw. The quake struck on May 22, 1960 at 38.29ºS, 73.0ºW. Seismic moment release: ~ 11.3 EJ]

Japan Trench Mega Thrust Earthquake No. 1 (JPTRMT1)  could break up the Honshu island into some half dozen fragments and scores of smaller splinters. [An impression depicting the new geography of the islands may be posted later.]

The Megashock could trigger a colossal tsunami completely submerging coastal areas around the Pacific Ocean, and traveling many miles inland.

JPTRMT1 could trigger multiple volcanic eruptions throughout Japan Region and rest of the western half of the PRF, as far away as in Alaska, the Philippines, Indonesia, PNG, Fiji, Tonga, New Zealand and rest of the South Pacific region. [Groups J, H, K and L on the map below.

The 10.0+Mw Megashock, its massive aftershocks, the spawned mountainous tsunamis and the multiple volcanic eruptions would cause  death and destruction on unprecedented scales throughout the Pacific Rim countries and beyond.

The impact of the volcanic eruptions would affect the entire world, resulting in severe climatic episodes, major losses of crops, famine and exacerbate mass dieoffs, which may have already started as a result of drought and deluge and other collapse mechanisms.

Map of Volcanoes. Background Map: University of Michigan. Designed and enhanced by Fire Earth Blog. Click image to enlarge.

Forecast Details

• Name Assigned by FIRE-EARTH: Japan Trench Mega Thrust Earthquake No. 1 (JPTRMT1)
• Location: Near the East Coast of Honshu, Japan
• Depth: ~ 26km
• Magnitude: 10.0+Mw
• Energy released: ~ 64EJ
• Largest Aftershocks:  ~ 9.0 Mw
• JPTRMT1 and its Massive aftershocks would trigger dozens of colossal super tsunamis.
• The unprecedented super seismic episode could trigger between 40 and 80 volcanoes to erupt simultaneously, shortly after the mainshock strikes.
• Millions of people could perish within the first few hours, and hundreds of millions more left without clean water, food, or shelter, as a result of the events.

Alaska Update [15:00UTC]

FIRE-EARTH Model shows continued buildup of tectonic stress energy near the coast of Alaska.

See: Alaska Earthquake Forecast: Update 3

Last updated: 11:24 UTC April 19, 2010

Global Disasters

• 2011 Much More Disastrous
• 2010 Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar

Related Links:

• Global Tectonics Alert

• Probability of a nuclear disaster striking near you
• M7.4 Quake Strikes Near E Coast of Honshu
• Japan Earthquakes, Disasters: Recent History and FIRE-EARTH Forecasts

Global Tectonics Alert

Japan Earthquake Forecasts

THIS SECTION WAS REVISED ON APRIL 9

SEE: JPTRMT1

The earthquakes could potentially rip through one or more of Japan’s nuclear power plants creating  a radioactive hell.

Japan MUST ACT NOW to prevent further RADIOACTIVE NIGHTMARES by decommissioning all of its nuclear reactors at war speed.

Previously …

March 16, 2011

Global Disaster Forecast – 16 Mar 2011

TOKYO AREA QUAKE WARNING
Large Earthquake Could Strike Tokyo Area – Megaqauke measuring up to 9.2Mw could strike Tokyo / Chiba Area:  FIRE-EARTH Forecast

March 13, 2011

FIRE-EARTH Forecasts: Japan Earthquakes
Japan Earthquakes: A Summary of Forecasts by FIRE-EARTH Blog

• NEW FORECAST: As Many as 4 Large Earthquakes Could  Strike Japan Region by 2015

Global Disasters

• 2011 Much More Disastrous
• 2010 Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar

Related Links:

• Probability of a nuclear disaster striking near you
• M7.4 Quake Strikes Near E Coast of Honshu
• Japan Earthquakes, Disasters: Recent History and FIRE-EARTH Forecasts

M7.4 Quake Strikes Near E Coast of Honshu

Mega Quake May Follow

Powerful 7.4Mw Strikes  66 km East of Sendai, Honshu

JMA has issued a tsunami warning, but it isn’t for a major tsunami

Earthquake Details (issued by Japan Meteorological Agency)

Issued at 23:36 JST 07 Apr 2011

Occurred at (JST)	Latitude (degree)	Longitude (degree)	Depth	Magnitude	Region Name
23:32 JST 07 Apr 2011	38.2N	142.0E	40 km	7.4	Miyagi-ken Oki

Tsunami Information NUMBER 2
(High Tide Time and Estimated Tsunami Arrival Time at each place)

Issued at 23:35 JST 07 Apr 2011

High Tide Time and Esti

mated Tsunami Arrival Time at each place
Exercise extreme caution if a tsunami arrives at high tide, as this boosts the height of waves.

Tsunami Forecast Region/ Tsunami Observation Site	High Tide Time	Estimated Tsunami Arrival Time
<Tsunami Warning (Tsunami)>
MIYAGI PREF.		(*1)
Ishinomaki-shi Ayukawa	05:08 JST 08 Apr	23:40 JST 07 Apr
Sendai-ko	05:13 JST 08 Apr	00:10 JST 08 Apr
<Tsunami Advisory>
PACIFIC COAST OF AOMORI PREF.		00:20 JST 08 Apr
Hachinohe	04:52 JST 08 Apr	00:40 JST 08 Apr
Mutsu-shi Sekinehama	04:50 JST 08 Apr	00:50 JST 08 Apr
Mutsuogawara-ko	04:50 JST 08 Apr	00:30 JST 08 Apr
IWATE PREF.		(*1)
Miyako	04:54 JST 08 Apr	00:00 JST 08 Apr
Ofunato	05:01 JST 08 Apr	23:50 JST 07 Apr
Kamaishi	05:03 JST 08 Apr	00:00 JST 08 Apr
Kuji-ko	04:54 JST 08 Apr	00:20 JST 08 Apr
FUKUSHIMA PREF.		23:50 JST 07 Apr
Iwaki-shi Onahama	05:28 JST 08 Apr	00:20 JST 08 Apr
Soma	05:19 JST 08 Apr	00:20 JST 08 Apr
IBARAKI PREF.		00:20 JST 08 Apr
Oarai	05:25 JST 08 Apr	00:30 JST 08 Apr
Kamisu-shi Kashima-ko	05:35 JST 08 Apr	00:30 JST 08 Apr

*1 mark: Arrival of tsunami inferred.

Tsunami Warnings and/or Advisories are in currently effect for the following coastal regions of Japan:
Tsunami Warning (Tsunami)
MIYAGI PREF.
<Tsunami Advisory>
PACIFIC COAST OF AOMORI PREF.
IWATE PREF.
FUKUSHIMA PREF.
IBARAKI PREF.
Although there may be slight sea-level changes in coastal regions other than the above, no tsunami damage is expected in those coastal regions.

Earthquake Information
Occurred at	23:32 JST 07 Apr 2011
Region name	MIYAGI-KEN OKI
Latitude	38.2N
Longitude	142.0E
Depth	about 40 km
Magnitude	7.4

Related Links

• Japan Earthquakes, Disasters: Recent History and FIRE-EARTH Forecasts
• FEWW Volcano Links
• Volcanoes
• FEWW Earthquake Links

Links to Forecasts

March 16, 2011

Global Disaster Forecast – 16 Mar 2011

TOKYO AREA QUAKE WARNING
Large Earthquake Could Strike Tokyo Area – Megaqauke measuring up to 9.2Mw could strike Tokyo / Chiba Area:  FIRE-EARTH Forecast

March 13, 2011

FIRE-EARTH Forecasts: Japan Earthquakes
Japan Earthquakes: A Summary of Forecasts by FIRE-EARTH Blog

• NEW FORECAST: As Many as 4 Large Earthquakes Could  Strike Japan Region by 2015
• 2011 Much More Disastrous
• 2010 Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar

Fukushima Nuclear Disaster Update – March 30

Radiation Rises in Seawater near Fukushima NPP

Radioactive iodine was detected at 3,355 times the legal limit in seawater some 330 meters south of Japan doomed Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, said Japan’s nuclear safety agency.

Iodine 131 is believed to have caused the high incidence of thyroid cancer among children living near the Chernobyl plant when the 1986 nuclear disaster occurred.

Highly radioactive water has inundated at least 3 reactor buildings and is also  found elsewhere at the stricken nuclear plant.

Half-life of some radioactive elements

[NOTE: Half-life is the time taken for a radioactive substance to decay by half.]

• Cesium-134 ~ 2  years
• Cesium-137 ~ 30 years
• Iodine-131 ~ 8 days
• Plutonium-239 ~ 24,200 years

• Ruthenium-103 ~ 39 days [Ruthenium is a fission product of uranium-235.]
• Ruthenium-106 ~ 374 days
• Strontium-90 ~ 28.85 years  [Strontium-90 is a product of nuclear fission and is found in large amounts in spent nuclear fuel and in radioactive waste from nuclear reactors.]

• Uranium-234 ~  246,000 years
• Uranium-235 ~ 703.8  million years
• Uranium-238  ~ 4.468 billion years

Source: Various

TEPCO UPDATE

The most ridiculous news out of Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO): Chairman Tsunehisa Katsumata has told reporters that he thinks Fukushima Reactors 1 to 4 MAY HAVE TO BE SHUT DOWN PERMANENTLY!

[REALLY?]

Also, is he implying that Reactor 5 and 6, or any part of the Fukushima Dai-ichi for that matter, are still safe?

Death Toll

The number of people dead or missing from the megaquake and tsunami on March 11 stands at about 28,000 people.

Aftershock

Meanwhile another strong aftershock measuring 6.0Mw struck off the east coast of Honshu about 246 km (152 miles) ENE of Tokyo, USGS/EHP reported.

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) had not reported this quake, as of posting.

Related Links

• M6.4 Shock Strikes Off Fukushima Coast
• TOKYO AREA QUAKE WARNING
  Large Earthquake Could Strike Tokyo Area – Megaqauke measuring up to 9.2Mw could strike Tokyo / Chiba Area:  FIRE-EARTH Forecast

• FIRE-EARTH Forecasts: Japan Earthquakes
  As Many as 4 Large Earthquakes [Megaquakes measuring ≥8.0] Could  Strike Japan Region by 2015

• M6.5 Aftershock Strikes Offshore Miyagi
• Significant Seismicity in Tohoku Region, Japan
• Japan Earthquakes: FIRE-EARTH Forecasts and Recent History

Significant Seismicity in Tohoku Region, Japan

3 Strong ‘Aftershocks’ Strike Tohoku Region Japan

The events, as reported by USGS, measured 6.6, 6.4 and 6.6Mw and struck within a 2.5 hour period.

The latest events could be foreshocks to yet another Megaquake in the region,  FIRE-EARTH believes.

List of today’s significant earthquakes, as of posting. Source: USGS

Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS. Map enhanced by FIRE-EARTH.

Japan Meteorological Agency has recorded the events as 6.3, 6.3 and 6.2Mw shocks and has not issued any tsunami advisories, as of posting.

Related Links

• Japan Earthquakes: FIRE-EARTH Forecasts and Recent History

Japan Tsunami Floods Kitakami – Satellite Images

Deadly Tsunami Spawned by Japan Megaquake Floods Kitakami River Basin

Click image to enlarge. Download larger image (3 MB, JPEG) —  acquired March 14, 201

Click image to enlarge. Download larger image (4 MB, JPEG) acquired January 16, 2011

The magnitude 9.0 megaquake that struck northeastern Honshu, Japan on March 11, 2011, spawned a deadly tsunami which inundated vast coastal areas along the eastern seaboard of the country’s main island. Top image shows flooded croplands and settlements along the Kitakami River, which was taken by ASTER on NASA’s Terra satellite on March 14, 2011. The bottom image posted for comparison was taken two months earlier. Source: NASA-EO.

Megaquake and Tsunami, Nuclear Power Plant Crisis  -UPDATE (17 March 2011, at 05:00 UTC)

The confirmed death toll from Friday’s 9.0Mw megaquake and  tsunami has climbed to 5,178, police said. At least 8,606 people are still missing.

The US state department has advised the US citizens living within 80km of Fukushima Daiichi NPP to leave the area. Japanese government’s exclusion zone is 20km, with a 20-30km caution zone.

Intelligent People and Nuclear Power Plants

The governor of Fukushima prefecture, where the doomed  nuclear plant is located, has complained that the NPP evacuees lack basic necessities, including sufficient hot food, warm clothes  and water, reports say.

As of Sunday March 13, about 230,000 people had been evacuated from the vicinity of the badly damaged nuclear plants, according to a government report.

More Serious Than Reported

TheUS Nuclear Regulatory Commission chairman, Greg Jaczko, has told a congressional energy and commerce subcommittee hearing in Washington that problems with attempts to cool the troubled reactors are more serious than reported.

“We believe that around the reactor site there are high levels of radiation.”

“[It’s] very difficult for emergency workers to get near the reactors. The doses they could experience would potentially be lethal doses in a very short period of time” he told the US lawmakers.

Three Mile Island

Meanwhile, the US Energy Secretary said the situation seemed to be more serious than the 1979 partial meltdown of the Three Mile Island NNP in Pennsylvania.

According to nuke scientists in France, the Three Mile Island partial meltdown was a 5 on a scale of 1 to 7, with the Chernobyl core meltdown scoring 7, and the Fukushima NPP crisis so far rating 6 in severity.

Related Links:

• Japan Earthquakes: FIRE-EARTH Forecasts and Recent History

TOKYO AREA QUAKE WARNING

Large Earthquake Could Strike Tokyo Area

Megaqauke measuring up to 9.2Mw could strike Tokyo / Chiba Area:  FIRE-EARTH Forecast

Details of Earthquake Forecast:

• Magnitude: 8.8Mw [Uncertainty= ±0.4Mw]
• Location: 50 – 150km radius of Tokyo Bay Area
• Depth: 24km [Uncertainty= N/A]
• Occurrence Time:
  • Between now and November 2011 [Probability = 0.70]
  • Between December 2011 and October 2012 [Probability = 0.64]
  • Between November 2012  and December 2016 [Probability = 0.78]

• Notes:
  • This forecast may be affected by SEISMIC CHAIN REACTIONS IN JAPAN REGION
  • For background, see summary of FIRE-EARTH Forecasts: Japan Earthquakes Posted on March 13, 2011
  • NEXT MAJOR TECTONICS EVENT COULD OCCUR IN THE U.S.
  • NEW FORECAST: As Many as 4 Large Earthquakes Could  Strike Japan Region by 2015
  • Waves of Intense Seismic Activity Could Strike Eastern Honshu, Japan
  • Fire-Earth Quake Forecast: Japan Earthquakes
  • Fire Earth Model shows that Japan region could be struck by up to 4 additional strong to large earthquakes possibly this year/early next year, one of which could be a catastrophic event.
  • FIRE-EARTH forecasts intense seismic activity in Japan Region during the 2011 – 2015 period.

Related Links

• US Volcanoes: Blasts from the Past?
• FEWW Volcano Links
• Volcanoes
• FEWW Earthquake Links

• 2010 Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar

FIRE-EARTH Forecasts: Japan Earthquakes

Japan Earthquakes: A Summary of Forecasts by FIRE-EARTH Blog

A number of colleagues and some of our readers have asked for a summary of the earthquake forecasts for Japan that were made by this blog.

1. On May 18, 2009 FIRE-EARTH said:

Earthquake Forecast: Tokyo, Japan

A powerful earthquake could strike near south coast of Honshu in late June – September 2009

FEWW Forecast: A magnitude 7.8+ quake could strike the Tokyo Bay area in the next 30-90 days.

Details of Forecast

Magnitude: 7.8 or larger
Estimated Date:  June 14, 2009 [Uncertainty T+ 60 days]
Epicenter: 35.56°N,  139.98ºE
Location: Tokyo Bay, Tokyo, Japan
Depth: 8km [Uncertainty: +/- 2.4km]
Distances:

• 8 km south of Tokyo Disneyland
• 12 km SE of Imperial Palace
• 14 km WSW of Chiba City
• 19 km NE of Yokohama

Horizontal Uncertainty: +/- 3.8 km
Probability of Occurrence: 0.8

2. Between 9 – 12  August 2009, within the 60-day uncertainty time period stated in the forecast, 3 strong to powerful shocks struck Japan Region redistributing the earthquake stress energy and affecting the FIRE-EARTH Tokyo EQ Forecast:

3rd Powerful Quake in 3 Days Strikes Japan Region

1. A powerful earthquake measuring 7.1Mw struck about 165km W of Hachijo-jima, Izu Islands, Japan, at a depth of 303.1km at on August 9, 2009 at 10:55:56 UTC. [EQ No 1 on the location map below.]

2. A strong earthquake measuring 6.4 occurred about 30km SSW of Shizuoka, Japan, at a depth of 30km at 20:07:07 UTC on Monday, August 10, 2009. [No 2 on the location map below.]

3. A 3rd earthquake [this report] measuring 6.7 occurred about 60km ESE of Hachijo-jima, Izu Islands, Japan region at a depth of 51 km at 22:48:51 UTC on August 12, 2009. [No 3 on the location map below.]

Location map of the three significant earthquakes that struck Japan between 9 and 12 August 2009. Original Map: USGS

3.  On August 17, 2009 after a 4th strong quake had struck Japan Region, having analyzed the new data, FIRE-EARTH forecast that as many as 10 additional magnitude 6+ quakes could yet strike the region [before a catastrophic event occurs.]

4th Powerful Quake Strikes Japan Region

Posted by feww on August 17, 2009

Magnitude 6.8 Quake Strikes Ryukyu Islands, Japan

FEWW Moderators had predicted more powerful earthquakes in the region last week, and now believe as many as 10 additional magnitude 6+ quakes could yet strike the region in coming weeks

Volcanic Activity Forecast

FEWW Moderators also believe there is a strong probability (0.8+) that the submarine Unnamed Volcano located East of Taiwan at 24.00N, 121.83E could erupt in 2009. [See previous comment.]

4. See  below for a list of the shocks forecasted.

• 5th Strong Quake Strikes Japan Region
• 6th Strong Quake Strikes Near Ryukyu Isles, Japan

• Seventh Powerful Quake Hits Japan Region Posted by feww on October 30, 2009

• 8th Strong Quake Strikes Ryukyu Islands, Japan
• The 9th Powerful Quake Strikes Japan Region

• Global Earthquakes Tempi Rising Posted by feww on July 20, 2010
• Strong Earthquake Strikes East of Honshu, Japan Posted by feww on June 13, 2010
• FEWW Earthquake WARNING: JAPAN Region Posted by feww on September 4, 2009
• Powerful 6.9Mw Quake Strikes Bonin Islands, Japan Posted by feww on November 30, 2010

• M 7.4 Quake Strikes Japan Region Posted by feww on December 21, 2010
• Japan 7.2 Quake Strikes Off the Coast of Honshu Posted on 9 March 2011

5. List of the Latest Forecasts

• In Tectonics Update – March 10 FIRE-EARTH warned:

JAPAN’s Sendai Quake Aftershocks

At least 25 aftershocks have been reported by Japan’s Meteorological Agency (JMA) since yesterday’s powerful 7.2Mw quake which struck off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture, about 168km east of the city of Sendai.

Two of the largest shocks measured M6.1 and 6.8, striking Sanriku Oki region at 03:45 JST [03:51 JST 10 Mar 2011] and 06:24 JST  [06:29 JST 10 Mar 2011] respectively.

FIRE-EARTH forecasts intense seismic activity in Japan Region during the 2011 – 2015 period.

Further deatails would be released on the need-to-know basis, partly to prevent Internet prophets from cashing in on FIRE-EARTH forecasts.

• In M 7.4 Quake Strikes Japan Region Posted by feww on December 21, 2010

FEWW Forecast

More powerful earthquakes, some related to this event, could strike Japan Region, much closer to the coastal areas.

On June 13, 2010, FIRE-EARTH forecast

Fire Earth Model shows that Japan region could be struck by up to 4 additional strong to large earthquakes possibly this year/early next year, one of which could be a catastrophic event.

• In M6.5 Strikes East Coast of Honshu, Japan Posted by feww on July 5, 2010 FEWW said:

Fire-Earth Quake Forecast: Japan Earthquakes

Japan region could be struck by up to 3 additional strong to large earthquakes by end 2010/early 2011, one of which could be a catastrophic event.

• In Honshu Earthquake Warning Posted by feww on November 10, 2010

Waves of Intense Seismic Activity Could Strike Eastern Honshu, Japan

The earthquakes could affect a wide region within 100 to 150 km radius of Tokyo Bay area.

• See also: Earthquake Forecast 2009

• In Tectonics Update – March 10 Posted by feww on March 10, 2011

FIRE-EARTH forecasts intense seismic activity in Japan Region during the 2011 – 2015 period.

Further deatails would be released on the need-to-know basis, partly to prevent Internet prophets from cashing in on FIRE-EARTH forecasts.

6. NEW FORECAST: As Many as 4 Large Earthquakes Could  Strike Japan Region by 2015

• In MEGA QUAKE STRIKES NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU Posted by feww on March 11, 2011

This quake may be a foreshock, with a larger event yet to follow: FIRE-EARTH

7. In 2011 Much More Disastrous

Posted by feww on September 13, 2010, FEWW warned:

2011 SIX TIMES MORE DISASTROUS THAN 2010

Global Disasters in 2011 Could Impact 1/3 to 1/2 of the Human Population

The impact of anthropogenic and human-enhanced natural disasters on the population will be 600 percent more severe in 2011 compared with 2010: Fire-Earth Forecast

Earth is critically wounded and diseased as a result of human assault and battery.

Humans’ first wave of serious [near-fatal] assault on the planet began in the early 1980s and has since heightened in severity.

Our feverish planet‘s fight against the pathogens is entering a critical phase. The earth’s defense mechanism is employing geophysical  phenomenon, as a result of which the impact of natural disasters on human population is intensifying.

In 2007 EDRO models showed that the intensity of disasters caused as a result of the planet’s self-healing process would lead to the first wave of collapse of the population centers, globally by about 2012.

It has!

The collapse has already started and would ultimately lead to the extinction [possibly the near-extinction] of human race.

For the EDRO forecast to be true, the final years leading to the start of collapse, namely 2010, 2011 and 2012, must necessarily be progressively more disastrous.

Based on its models, Fire-Earth Moderators forecast in late December 2009 that 2010 would prove to be the most disastrous year on record. And with more than 100 days left to the end of this year, the forecast has already proven to be true and accurate.

What about 2011?

Fire-Earth models show that the impact of anthropogenic and human-enhanced natural disasters would be about 600 percent more severe in 2011 compared with this year.

Based on our findings, we estimate that between one-third and one-half of the world population could be affected in some way by various disasters that are forecast to occur in 2011.

Related Links

• 2010 Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar

JAPAN MEGA QUAKE UPDATE 3 – March 12

First Wave of Collapsing Cities Intensifying

New Earthquake West of Honshu Unleashes Avalanches, Destroys Large Sections of Nagano Railway

The quake measuring up to 6.6Mw struck about 45km NNE of Nagano, the capital city of Nagano Prefecture, west coast of Honshu.

The quake struck at a depth of about 10km Friday, March 11, 2011 at 18:59 UTC (3:59am local time), triggering large landslides and avalanches in the snow-topped mountainous area, and destroying roads and railway sections.

EQ Location Map. Source: USGS. Map enhanced by FIRE-EARTH

Sendai Mega Quake – Update March 12

NEW Major Tsunamis Warnings

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has issued a new round of Tsunami Warnings for Japan Region, including Major Tsunamis Warnings for at least 18 prefectures (states) on the eastern coast of Hokkaido island, NE, E and southeastern coast of Honshu island.

Meanwhile, as the extent of damage becomes clear, witnesses speak of “colossal damage” from the Mega Quake and its associated Tsunami, with entire towns “washed away” along the eastern coast of Honshu.

FIRE-EARTH has estimated that the cost of damage could reach a trillion dollars.

Radiation Leak at Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant

Radiation Leak Confirmed at Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Reactor No. 1, Following Sendai Mega Quake

Nuclear reactor No. 1

Japanese authorities have confirmed radiation leak at Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Reactor No. 1, and have evacuated people living with a 10-km radius of the reactor.

Nuclear reactor No. 2

They now fear radiation leak at the Plant’s Reactor No. 2, and have evacuated people living within a 3-km radius  of that reactor. They have also put on evacuation notice everyone living within a 10-km radius of the reactor

Death Toll from Sendai Mega Quake and the Tsunami

Confirmed death toll stands at 242 victims, with more than a 1,000 people reported as missing, as of 02:00UTC Saturday, March 12, 2011.

Earthquake FIRES

• There are at least 50 large to major fires still burning, as of posting.
• The 3 fires at Cosmo Oil Refinery in Ichihara City, Chiba prefecture (near Tokyo) were burning out of control, as of latest reports.
• The Kawasaki Steel Plant in Soga city (also in Chiba Pref) has reportedly “exploded.”

Aftershocks

At least 130 significant aftershocks (≥5.0Mw) have struck near March 11 Sendai Mega Quake, with the   latest measuring 6.8Mw timed at 01:47:16 UTC Saturday, March 12, 2011.

EQ Location Map of the latest significant aftershock measuring 6.8Mw. Source: USGS

Largest 5 Earthquakes Since 1900

The Sendai Mega Quake was the 5th largest earthquake to occur globally since 1900. The following image and list show the location, magnitude and other details of the shocks.

Click image to enlarge. Source: USGS/EHP

	Location	Date UTC	Magnitude	Lat.	Long.	Reference
1.	Chile	1960 05 22	9.5	-38.29	-73.05	Kanamori, 1977
2.	Prince William Sound, Alaska	1964 03 28	9.2	61.02	-147.65	Kanamori, 1977
3.	Off the West Coast of Northern Sumatra	2004 12 26	9.1	3.30	95.78	Park et al., 2005
4.	Kamchatka	1952 11 04	9.0	52.76	160.06	Kanamori, 1977
5.	Offshore East Coast of Honshu, Japan	2011 03 11	8.9	38.32°N	-142.37°E	FIRE-EARTH

A list of the 15 largest earthquakes since 1900 is available at USGS site.

Map of Sendai Mega Quake

A map of the location of the Sendai March 11 Mega Quake, including foreshocks (dotted lines) and aftershocks (solid lines) incorporating elevation data from NASA’s Shuttle Radar Topography Mission and ocean bathymetry data from the BODC. Source NASA-EO. Click image to enlarge. Download larger image (398 KB, JPEG).  Acquired March 11, 2011.

Related Links:

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• 2011 – 2012: A Time for Mega Disasters
• 2010: Year One of Human-Enhanced Disasters

NEW TSUNAMI WARNINGS FOR JAPAN – March 12

Second Round of Tsunami Warnings Issued by Japan Meteorological Agency

Japan Meteorological Agency has issued a new round of Tsunami Warnings for Japan Region at 03:20 JST, Saturday March 12, 2011. A Major Tsunami Warning covers the entire eastern seaboards of Honshu and Hokkaido islands.

See below for tsunami map and list of the prefectures under TSUNAMI WARNING.

Source: JMA

Tsunami Warning/AdvisoryIssued at 03:20 JST 12 Mar 2011

Tsunami Attention has been issued for:

• KAGA AREA, ISHIKAWA PREF.
• FUKUI PREF.
• JAPAN SEA COAST OF KINKI/SHIKOKU

Tsunami Advisory

*KAGA AREA, ISHIKAWA PREF.
*FUKUI PREF.
*KYOTO PREF.
*NORTHERN PART OF HYOGO PREF.
*TOTTORI PREF.
*SHIMANE PREF.,EXCEPT OKI ISLANDS
*OKI ISLANDS
*JAPAN SEA COAST OF YAMAGUCHI PREF.

At the following coasts (* marks) tsunamis are expected to arrive right away.
KAGA AREA, ISHIKAWA PREF.
FUKUI PREF.
KYOTO PREF.
NORTHERN PART OF HYOGO PREF.
TOTTORI PREF.
SHIMANE PREF.,EXCEPT OKI ISLANDS
OKI ISLANDS
JAPAN SEA COAST OF YAMAGUCHI PREF.

—Tsunami forecast now in effect—

Major Tsunami

• IWATE PREF.
• MIYAGI PREF.
• FUKUSHIMA PREF.
• CENTRAL PART OF PACIFIC COAST OF HOKKAIDO
• PACIFIC COAST OF AOMORI PREF.
• IBARAKI PREF.
• KUJUKURI AND SOTOBO AREA, CHIBA PREF.
• IZU ISLANDS
• EASTERN PART OF PACIFIC COAST OF HOKKAIDO
• WESTERN PART OF PACIFIC COAST OF HOKKAIDO
• JAPAN SEA COAST OF AOMORI PREF.
• UCHIBO AREA, CHIBA PREF.
• OGASAWARA ISLANDS
• SAGAMI BAY AND MIURA PENINSULA
• SHIZUOKA PREF.
• WAKAYAMA PREF.
• TOKUSHIMA PREF.
• KOCHI PREF.

Tsunami

• PACIFIC COAST OF AICHI PREF.
• SOUTHERN PART OF MIE PREF.
• MIYAZAKI PREF.
• TANEGASHIMA AND YAKUSHIMA AREA
• AMAMI ISLANDS AND TOKARA ISLANDS
• SOUTHERN PART OF JAPAN SEA COAST OF HOKKAIDO
• MUTSU BAY
• TOKYO BAY
• ISE BAY AND MIKAWA BAY
• SOUTHERN PART OF AWAJI ISLAND
• BUNGO STRAIT COAST OF EHIME PREF.
• SETONAIKAI COAST OF OITA PREF.
• BUNGO STRAIT COAST OF OITA PREF.
• EASTERN PART OF KAGOSHIMA PREF.
• WESTERN PART OF KAGOSHIMA PREF.
• OKINAWA ISLANDS
• DAITOJIMA AREA
• MIYAKOJIMA AND YAEYAMA AREA
• ARIAKE SEA AND YATSUSHIRO SEA
• WESTERN PART OF NAGASAKI PREF.
• AMAKUSA NADA COAST OF KUMAMOTO PREF.

Tsunami Advisory

• OKHOTSK SEA COAST OF HOKKAIDO
• OSAKA PREF.
• SETONAIKAI COAST OF HYOGO PREF.
• OKAYAMA PREF.
• KAGAWA PREF.
• SETONAIKAI COAST OF EHIME PREF.
• AKITA PREF.
• YAMAGATA PREF.
• NIIGATA PREF.,EXCEPT SADOGASHIMA ISLAND
• SADOGASHIMA ISLAND
• TOYAMA PREF.
• NOTO AREA, ISHIKAWA PREF.
• HIROSHIMA PREF.
• SETONAIKAI COAST OF YAMAGUCHI PREF.
• SETONAIKAI COAST OF FUKUOKA PREF.
• NORTHERN PART OF JAPAN SEA COAST OF HOKKAIDO
• JAPAN SEA COAST OF FUKUOKA PREF.
• NORTHERN PART OF SAGA PREF.
• IKI ISLAND AND TSUSHIMA ISLANDS
• KAGA AREA, ISHIKAWA PREF.
• FUKUI PREF.
• KYOTO PREF.
• NORTHERN PART OF HYOGO PREF.
• TOTTORI PREF.
• SHIMANE PREF.,EXCEPT OKI ISLANDS
• OKI ISLANDS
• JAPAN SEA COAST OF YAMAGUCHI PREF.

Maximum Tsunami Observation Map, March 11

Source: JMA

Related Links:

• Radiation Leak at Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant
• Threat of Nuclear Leak at Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant

• JAPAN MEGA QUAKE UPDATE #2
• JAPAN M8.9 MEGA QUAKE UPDATE
• MEGA QUAKE STRIKES NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU

• Tectonics Update – March 10
• Japan 7.2 Quake Strikes Off the Coast of Honshu
• Honshu Earthquake Warning

MEGA QUAKE STRIKES NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU

M8.9 QUAKE STRIKES OFFSHORE JAPAN

BASED ON THE EARTHQUAKE REPORTS, A DESTRUCTIVE TSUNAMI SHOULD BE EXPECTED

This quake may be a foreshock, with a larger event yet to follow: FIRE-EARTH

LATEST REPORT FROM EMSC

Click image to enlarge.

GFZ Potsdam – Earthquake Bulletin
Region: Near East Coast of Honshu, Japan
Time: 2011-03-11 05:46:22.5 UTC
Magnitude: 8.5
Epicenter: 142.49°E 38.32°N
Depth: 5 km
Status: C – confirmed

The Japan Meteorological Agency’s website is currently down and the blog was unable to get a confirmation.

USGS has apparently recorded the event as a magnitude 8.8Mw with a 7.9Mw aftershock.

JMA has just issued the following report:

Earthquake Information (Information about Seismic Intensity at each site)

Issued at 14:53 JST 11 Mar 2011

Occurred at (JST)	Latitude (degree)	Longitude (degree)	Depth	Magnitude	Region Name
14:46 JST 11 Mar 2011	38.0N	142.9E	10km	7.9	Sanriku Oki

Earthquake location map. Epicenter is marked by a red cross. Bubbles indicate severity of the tremor as felt by local monitoring stations throughout Japan. Source: JMA.

TSUNAMI WARNINGS

EIGHT of Japan’s Prefectures are currently under a MAJOR Tsunami/Tsunami warning:

JMA has issued the following:

Tsunami Warning/Advisory

Issued at 14:49 JST 11 Mar 2011

Major Tsunami and Tsunami have been issued.
PACIFIC COAST OF TOHOKU
CENTRAL PART OF PACIFIC COAST OF HOKKAIDO
IBARAKI PREF.
KUJUKURI AND SOTOBO AREA, CHIBA PREF.
IZU ISLANDS
Evacuate from the seashore immediately to the safe places near the above coasts.
Tsunami attentions are in effect at some of the other coasts now.

Tsunami Warning
<Major Tsunami>
*IWATE PREF.
MIYAGI PREF.
FUKUSHIMA PREF.
<Tsunami>
CENTRAL PART OF PACIFIC COAST OF HOKKAIDO
PACIFIC COAST OF AOMORI PREF.
IBARAKI PREF.
KUJUKURI AND SOTOBO AREA, CHIBA PREF.
IZU ISLANDS
Evacuate from the seashore immediately to the safe places near the above coasts.

Tsunami Advisory

EASTERN PART OF PACIFIC COAST OF HOKKAIDO
WESTERN PART OF PACIFIC COAST OF HOKKAIDO
JAPAN SEA COAST OF AOMORI PREF.
UCHIBO AREA, CHIBA PREF.
OGASAWARA ISLANDS
SAGAMI BAY AND MIURA PENINSULA
SHIZUOKA PREF.
PACIFIC COAST OF AICHI PREF.
SOUTHERN PART OF MIE PREF.
WAKAYAMA PREF.
TOKUSHIMA PREF.
KOCHI PREF.
MIYAZAKI PREF.
TANEGASHIMA AND YAKUSHIMA AREA
AMAMI ISLANDS AND TOKARA ISLANDS

At the following coasts (* marks) tsunamis are expected to arrive right away.
IWATE PREF

For more information go to:

• Tsunami Information (High Tide Time and Estimated Tsunami Arrival)

Related Links:

• Tectonics Update – March 10
• Japan 7.2 Quake Strikes Off the Coast of Honshu
• Honshu Earthquake Warning

Tectonics Update – March 10

Kilauea Volcanic Activity

Current Volcano Alert Level: WATCH
Previous Volcano Alert Level: WARNING
Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE

Lava fountains from the northeastern vent of the Kamoamoa eruption. Pu`u `Ō `ō cone is seen in the background. Credit: HVO. Click image to enlarge.

Issued: March 9, 2011, 03:45UTC
Source: Hawaiian Volcano Observatory
Notice Number: 2011/H3

• Eruption on Kīlauea volcano: East rift zone [end of the 2.3 km Kamoamoa fissure located between Pu’u ‘Ō’ō and Nāpau Crater.”Lava erupted from the western end of the fissure, which is near the eastern rim of Nāpau Crater, has formed a channelized ‘a’ā flow that extends 2.9 km (1.8 mi) to the southwest. The lava flow ranges from 80 to 290 m (260 to 950 ft) wide, but the active channel within the flow is only about 20 m (65 ft) wide.”

• Lava spatter As high as 50 m
• SO2 emission rate down to 4,400 tpd
• Deflation slowing at both the summit and east rift zone.

A view of Halema`uma`u vent using thermal imaging. “The lava level dropped considerably over the past several days, retreating to a narrow opening deep within the vent cavity.” Source: HVO.  Click images to enlarge.

Extent of the Kamoamoa Fissure eruption, beginning March 5, 2011. The line of fissures extends 2.3 km, between Nāpau Crater and Pu`u `Ō `ō. The peach colored flow shown on the map is from the 1997 Nāpau Crater eruption. Source: HVO.

Related Links:

• Kilauea SO2 emissions tops 10,000 tpd
• https://feww.wordpress.com/2011/03/08/kilauea-so2-emissions-tops-10000-tpd/#comment-12536
• Heightened Activity at Kilauea Volcano

JAPAN’s Sendai Quake Aftershocks

At least 25 aftershocks have been reported by Japan’s Meteorological Agency (JMA) since yesterday’s powerful 7.2Mw quake which struck off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture, about 168km east of the city of Sendai.

Two of the largest shocks measured M6.1 and 6.8, striking Sanriku Oki region at 03:45 JST [03:51 JST 10 Mar 2011] and 06:24 JST  [06:29 JST 10 Mar 2011] respectively.

FIRE-EARTH forecasts intense seismic activity in Japan Region during the 2011 – 2015 period.

Further deatails would be released on the need-to-know basis, partly to prevent Internet prophets from cashing in on FIRE-EARTH forecasts.

Sendai 7.2 earthquake. List of aftershocks. Source: JMA. Click image to enlarge.

Related Links:

• Japan 7.2 Quake Strikes Off the Coast of Honshu

Recent Significant Earthquakes

PNG

• Magnitude 6.5 – NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA –
  • Wednesday, March 09, 2011 at 21:24:51 UTC
  • Depth: 29km
  • Location:  6.022°S, 149.659°E

CHINA

• Magnitude 5.4 – MYANMAR-CHINA BORDER REGION
  • The quake was a magnitude 5.8 shock striking Yingjiang County in southwest China’s Yunnan Province, Xinhua said.
  • At  least 24 people were killed and more than 250 others injured as a result.
  • The shock also destroyed about 1,000 buildings.

New Zealand

• Magnitude 4.5 aftershock strikes 10 km east of Christchurch at a depth of 10km.
• Magnitude 4.0 aftershock strikes about 5km from Lyttelton at a depth of 10km.

Related Links:

• Earthquakes
• New Zealand Earthquake Warnings – 7 March 2011

M 7.4 Quake Strikes Japan Region

Powerful Quake Strikes Japan’s Bonin Islands

Earthquake Location Map. Cross shows epicenter of the 7.4Mw quake, while the colored bubbles indicate the seismic intensity at various monitoring centers in Japan. Source: Japan’s Meteorological Agency (JMA). Image may be subject to copyright.

Tsunami Warning/Advisory

The 7.4Mw quake struck at a depth of 10km and created a tsunami which reached a height of about  3m (10 feet) in at least a dozen locations around Japan’s coastal areas

JMA said on its Website:

Tsunami Observations
As of 05:40 JST (UTC+ 9 hours)
At some parts of the coasts, tsunamis may be higher than those observed at the observation sites.
The tsunamis can become higher from now on.

However, JMA later downgraded the warning to a tsunami advisory for the area.

Tsunami Map for the 7.4Mw Bonin Islands Earthquake. Source: Japan’s Meteorological Agency (JMA). Image may be subject to copyright. The tsunami reached a height of about 3m in at least 12 locations around Japan’s coastal areas.

Earthquake Details [JMA]

• Magnitude: 7.4Mw [Reported as 7.5Mw by GFZ Potsdam – Earthquake Bulletin]
• Date- Time 02:20 JST on 22 Dec 2010 a
• Location: 27.5N 143.4E  Depth: 10km
• Region: Chichijima Kinkai  [Bonin Islands, Japan Region]

• Distances [USGS]
  • 150 km (95 miles) E of Chichi-shima, Bonin Islands, Japan
  • 335 km (210 miles) NE of Iwo Jima, Volcano Islands, Japan
  • 1050 km (650 miles) SSE of TOKYO, Japan

Aftershocks

About 3 dozen strong aftershocks were reported, as of posting, the most significant of which measured 5.0Mw. Many more aftershocks may follow in the coming days and weeks.

FEWW Forecast

More powerful earthquakes, some related to this event, could strike Japan Region, much closer to the coastal areas.

On June 13, 2010, FIRE-EARTH forecast

Fire Earth Model shows that Japan region could be struck by up to 4 additional strong to large earthquakes possibly this year/early next year, one of which could be a catastrophic event.

Japan Earthquake Forecasts (FEWW)

• Honshu Earthquake Warning
• Earthquake Forecast: Tokyo, Japan
• Earthquake Forecast 2009

Related Links:

• Powerful 6.9Mw Quake Strikes Bonin Islands, Japan
• M6.5 Strikes East Coast of Honshu, Japan
• Strong Earthquake Strikes East of Honshu, Japan
• Submarine Volcano Erupts Near Japan

• Global Earthquakes Tempi Rising
• 3 Waves of Significant Quakes Strike Our Planet
• Global Earthquakes
• Japan Earthquakes
• Arabia Shakes

• FEWW Volcano Links
• Volcanoes
• FEWW Earthquake Links

Powerful 6.9Mw Quake Strikes Bonin Islands, Japan

Magnitude 6.9 Earthquake Strikes Bonin Islands, Rattling Japan’s Entire Eastern Seaboard

The quake struck at a depth of about 480km, too deep to cause a tsunami.

Earthquake Location Map. Cross shows epicenter of the 6.9Mw quake, while the colored bubbles indicate  the intensity at various monitoring centers in Japan. Source: Japan’s Meteorological Agency (JMA). Image may be subject to copyright.

Quake Details (JMA)

• Time Occurred:  12:25 (JST) 30 Nov 2010
• Epicenter: 28.4N, 139.7E
• Dept: 480km
• Magnitude: 6.9 Mw
• Region Name:  Ogasawara-shoto Seiho-oki (Bonin Islands), Japan Region

Distances (USGS)

• 335 km (210 miles) WNW of Chichi-shima, Bonin Islands, Japan
• 455 km (285 miles) NNW of Iwo Jima, Volcano Islands, Japan
• 525 km (325 miles) S of Hachijo-jima, Izu Islands, Japan
• 810 km (500 miles) S of TOKYO, Japan

Japan Earthquake Forecasts (FEWW)

• Honshu Earthquake Warning
• Fire-Earth Quake Forecast: Japan Earthquakes
• Earthquake Forecast: Tokyo, Japan
• Earthquake Forecast 2009

Related Links:

• M6.5 Strikes East Coast of Honshu, Japan
• Strong Earthquake Strikes East of Honshu, Japan
• FEWW Volcano Links
• Volcanoes
• FEWW Earthquake Links

earthquake forecast, Honshu Earthquake Warning, Tokyo Bay earthquake, Tokyo Earthquake Forecast

Honshu Earthquake Warning

Waves of Intense Seismic Activity Could Strike Eastern Honshu, Japan

The earthquakes could affect a wide region within 100 to 150 km radius of Tokyo Bay area.

Related Links:

• M6.5 Strikes East Coast of Honshu, Japan
• Fire-Earth Quake Forecast: Japan Earthquakes

• Earthquake Forecast: Tokyo, Japan
• Earthquake Forecast 2009

• Strong Earthquake Strikes East of Honshu, Japan
• FEWW Volcano Links
• Volcanoes
• FEWW Earthquake Links

M6.5 Strikes East Coast of Honshu, Japan

Strong Earthquake Measuring 6.5Mw Strikes Near East Coast of Honshu, Japan

The quake epicenter was located near 39.6N,142.7E about 120 km (75 miles) east of Morioka, Honshu, Japan.

Tsunami Status:

Japan Meteorological Agency said ther was no danger of a destructive tsunami.

Quake Damage:

The tremor was felt as far away as in Tokyo, some 510km from the epicenter. There was no report of damage or injuries, as of posting.

Quake Details according to GFZ Potsdam – Earthquake Bulletin

• Region: Near East Coast of Honshu, Japan
• Time: 2010-07-04 21:55:53.5 UTC
• Magnitude: 6.5Mw
• Epicenter: 142.54°E 39.66°N
• Depth: 37 km

Quake Details according to Japan Meteorological Agency

• Occurred at: 06:56 JST (Sunday, July 04, 2010 at 21:56 UTC)
• Location: 39.6N, 142.7E
• Depth: 30km
• Magnitude:  6.3Mw
• Region Name:  Iwate-ken Oki

Quake Details according to USGS/EHP

• Magnitude:  6.4
• Date-Time:  Sunday, July 04, 2010 at 21:55:51 UTC
• Location: 39.705°N, 142.523°E
• Depth: 23.7 km (14.7 miles)
• Region: NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
• Distances
  • 120 km (75 miles) E of Morioka, Honshu, Japan
  • 125 km (80 miles) SE of Hachinohe, Honshu, Japan
  • 195 km (120 miles) SE of Aomori, Honshu, Japan
  • 510 km (315 miles) NNE of TOKYO, Japan
• Location Uncertainty:  horizontal +/- 14.7 km (9.1 miles); depth +/- 6.8 km (4.2 miles)
• Event ID us2010yhbp

Fire-Earth Quake Forecast: Global Earthquakes

The Blog Moderators expect more earthquakes, and related disasters, in the 2nd half of 2010 than occurred in the 1st half of this year.

Fire-Earth Quake Forecast: Japan Earthquakes

Japan region could be struck by up to 3 additional strong to large earthquakes by end 2010/early 2011, one of which could be a catastrophic event.

Related Links:

• Strong Earthquake Strikes Oaxaca, Mexico
• Strong Earthquake Strikes East of Honshu, Japan
• FEWW Volcano Links
• Volcanoes
• FEWW Earthquake Links