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Archive for the ‘Japan Quake Forecast’ Category

Japan Quake: Strong Shock Rattles Next Target Area

Posted by feww on April 22, 2011

M6.2 Quake Strikes 16 km East of Chiba

Strong Quakes Rattles Large Areas East of Tokyo, Japan

The strong quake, epicentered  at 140.39°E,  35.53°N struck at a depth of 28km at 13:37:02 UTC on April 21, GFZ Potsdam reported.

The quake was followed by a number of aftershocks, the largest of which measured 5.6Mw.

FIRE-EARTH forecast: The mean distance of epicenters for significant shocks striking near Boso Triple Junction (Sagami Trough), on the east coast of Honshu, are moving closer to Tokyo area, making Chiba City a highly probable target for a large quake (Magnitude > 8.4Mw).


NGDC/NOAA map of Japan Trench, with the broader location of Boso Triple Junction marked. Map enhanced by FIRE-EARTH.

SEE ALSO: JPTRMT1

Earthquake Map

Quake Details

Region: Near East Coast of Honshu, Japan
Magnitude: 6.2Mw
Time:     2011-04-21 13:37:01.9 UTC
Epicenter:     140.39°E, 35.53°N
Depth:     28 km
Source: GFZ Potsdam – Earthquake Bulletin

Japan Meteorological Agency reported the quake as a 6.0Mw, while USGS recorded a 6.1Mw shock. NO tsunami warning/advisory was issued.

Distances [USGS]

  • 64 km (39 miles) E of TOKYO, Japan
  • 76 km (47 miles) ENE of Yokohama, Honshu, Japan
  • 82 km (50 miles) S of Mito, Honshu, Japan
  • 115 km (71 miles) SSE of Utsunomiya, Honshu, Japan

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TOKYO AREA QUAKE WARNING

Posted by feww on March 16, 2011

Large Earthquake Could Strike Tokyo Area

Megaqauke measuring up to 9.2Mw could strike Tokyo / Chiba Area:  FIRE-EARTH Forecast

Details of Earthquake Forecast:

  • Magnitude: 8.8Mw [Uncertainty= ±0.4Mw]
  • Location: 50 – 150km radius of Tokyo Bay Area
  • Depth: 24km [Uncertainty= N/A]
  • Occurrence Time:
    • Between now and November 2011 [Probability = 0.70]
    • Between December 2011 and October 2012 [Probability = 0.64]
    • Between November 2012  and December 2016 [Probability = 0.78]

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Posted in Earthquakes, Earthquakes 2010, Japan earthquake forecast, Japan Earthquakes 2011, Japan Quake Forecast | Tagged: , | 4 Comments »

FIRE-EARTH Forecasts: Japan Earthquakes

Posted by feww on March 13, 2011

Japan Earthquakes: A Summary of Forecasts by FIRE-EARTH Blog

A number of colleagues and some of our readers have asked for a summary of the earthquake forecasts for Japan that were made by this blog.

1. On May 18, 2009 FIRE-EARTH said:

Earthquake Forecast: Tokyo, Japan

A powerful earthquake could strike near south coast of Honshu in late June – September 2009

FEWW Forecast: A magnitude 7.8+ quake could strike the Tokyo Bay area in the next 30-90 days.

Details of Forecast

Magnitude: 7.8 or larger
Estimated Date:  June 14, 2009 [Uncertainty T+ 60 days]
Epicenter: 35.56°N,  139.98ºE
Location: Tokyo Bay, Tokyo, Japan
Depth: 8km [Uncertainty: +/- 2.4km]
Distances:

  • 8 km south of Tokyo Disneyland
  • 12 km SE of Imperial Palace
  • 14 km WSW of Chiba City
  • 19 km NE of Yokohama

Horizontal Uncertainty: +/- 3.8 km
Probability of Occurrence: 0.8

2. Between 9 – 12  August 2009, within the 60-day uncertainty time period stated in the forecast, 3 strong to powerful shocks struck Japan Region redistributing the earthquake stress energy and affecting the FIRE-EARTH Tokyo EQ Forecast:

3rd Powerful Quake in 3 Days Strikes Japan Region

1. A powerful earthquake measuring 7.1Mw struck about 165km W of Hachijo-jima, Izu Islands, Japan, at a depth of 303.1km at on August 9, 2009 at 10:55:56 UTC. [EQ No 1 on the location map below.]

2. A strong earthquake measuring 6.4 occurred about 30km SSW of Shizuoka, Japan, at a depth of 30km at 20:07:07 UTC on Monday, August 10, 2009. [No 2 on the location map below.]

3. A 3rd earthquake [this report] measuring 6.7 occurred about 60km ESE of Hachijo-jima, Izu Islands, Japan region at a depth of 51 km at 22:48:51 UTC on August 12, 2009. [No 3 on the location map below.]

Location map japan quakes
Location map of the three significant earthquakes that struck Japan between 9 and 12 August 2009. Original Map: USGS

3.  On August 17, 2009 after a 4th strong quake had struck Japan Region, having analyzed the new data, FIRE-EARTH forecast that as many as 10 additional magnitude 6+ quakes could yet strike the region [before a catastrophic event occurs.]

4th Powerful Quake Strikes Japan Region

Posted by feww on August 17, 2009

Magnitude 6.8 Quake Strikes Ryukyu Islands, Japan

FEWW Moderators had predicted more powerful earthquakes in the region last week, and now believe as many as 10 additional magnitude 6+ quakes could yet strike the region in coming weeks

Volcanic Activity Forecast

FEWW Moderators also believe there is a strong probability (0.8+) that the submarine Unnamed Volcano located East of Taiwan at 24.00N, 121.83E could erupt in 2009. [See previous comment.]

4. See  below for a list of the shocks forecasted.

5. List of the Latest Forecasts

JAPAN’s Sendai Quake Aftershocks

At least 25 aftershocks have been reported by Japan’s Meteorological Agency (JMA) since yesterday’s powerful 7.2Mw quake which struck off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture, about 168km east of the city of Sendai.

Two of the largest shocks measured M6.1 and 6.8, striking Sanriku Oki region at 03:45 JST [03:51 JST 10 Mar 2011] and 06:24 JST  [06:29 JST 10 Mar 2011] respectively.

FIRE-EARTH forecasts intense seismic activity in Japan Region during the 2011 – 2015 period.

Further deatails would be released on the need-to-know basis, partly to prevent Internet prophets from cashing in on FIRE-EARTH forecasts.

FEWW Forecast

More powerful earthquakes, some related to this event, could strike Japan Region, much closer to the coastal areas.

On June 13, 2010, FIRE-EARTH forecast

Fire Earth Model shows that Japan region could be struck by up to 4 additional strong to large earthquakes possibly this year/early next year, one of which could be a catastrophic event.

Fire-Earth Quake Forecast: Japan Earthquakes

Japan region could be struck by up to 3 additional strong to large earthquakes by end 2010/early 2011, one of which could be a catastrophic event.

Waves of Intense Seismic Activity Could Strike Eastern Honshu, Japan

The earthquakes could affect a wide region within 100 to 150 km radius of Tokyo Bay area.

FIRE-EARTH forecasts intense seismic activity in Japan Region during the 2011 – 2015 period.

Further deatails would be released on the need-to-know basis, partly to prevent Internet prophets from cashing in on FIRE-EARTH forecasts.

6. NEW FORECAST: As Many as 4 Large Earthquakes Could  Strike Japan Region by 2015

This quake may be a foreshock, with a larger event yet to follow: FIRE-EARTH

7. In 2011 Much More Disastrous

Posted by feww on September 13, 2010, FEWW warned:

2011 SIX TIMES MORE DISASTROUS THAN 2010

Global Disasters in 2011 Could Impact 1/3 to 1/2 of the Human Population

The impact of anthropogenic and human-enhanced natural disasters on the population will be 600 percent more severe in 2011 compared with 2010: Fire-Earth Forecast

Earth is critically wounded and diseased as a result of human assault and battery.

Humans’ first wave of serious [near-fatal] assault on the planet began in the early 1980s and has since heightened in severity.

Our feverish planet‘s fight against the pathogens is entering a critical phase. The earth’s defense mechanism is employing geophysical  phenomenon, as a result of which the impact of natural disasters on human population is intensifying.

In 2007 EDRO models showed that the intensity of disasters caused as a result of the planet’s self-healing process would lead to the first wave of collapse of the population centers, globally by about 2012.

It has!

The collapse has already started and would ultimately lead to the extinction [possibly the near-extinction] of human race.

For the EDRO forecast to be true, the final years leading to the start of collapse, namely 2010, 2011 and 2012, must necessarily be progressively more disastrous.

Based on its models, Fire-Earth Moderators forecast in late December 2009 that 2010 would prove to be the most disastrous year on record. And with more than 100 days left to the end of this year, the forecast has already proven to be true and accurate.

What about 2011?

Fire-Earth models show that the impact of anthropogenic and human-enhanced natural disasters would be about 600 percent more severe in 2011 compared with this year.

Based on our findings, we estimate that between one-third and one-half of the world population could be affected in some way by various disasters that are forecast to occur in 2011.

Related Links

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The 9th Powerful Quake Strikes Japan Region

Posted by feww on February 27, 2010

The 9th powerful Earthquake (of a possible series of 14) Measuring 6.9 Mw Strikes Ryukyu Isles, Japan

A powerful earthquake measuring 6.9 Mw struck near Naha, Okinawa, Japan at a depth of 10km on February 26, 2010 at 20:31UTC. The mainshock was followed by a magnitude 5.1 aftershock which occurred on February 27, 2010 at 00:49 UTC, USGS reported.

Background:

Referring to an earlier forecast, FEWW Moderators believe an additional series of 5 or so quakes measuring ≥ 6.0 Mw could strike Japan region in the coming weeks.

10-degree Map Centered at 25°N,130°E


Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Map enhanced by FEWW.


Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP.


Political Map of Japan.

Earthquake Information Issued by JMA at 05:31 JST 27 Feb 2010

Occurred at (JST)

Latitude

Longitude

Depth

Mag.

Region Name

5:31 JST 27 Feb 2010

26.3ºN

128.2ºE

10km

6.9Mw

Okinawa-honto Kinkai

Approximate Distances (USGS):

  • 80 km (50 miles) ESE of Naha, Okinawa, Japan
  • 455 km (285 miles) ENE of Ishigaki-jima, Ryukyu Islands, Japan
  • 665 km (415 miles) SSW of Kagoshima, Kyushu, Japan
  • 1530 km (950 miles) SW of TOKYO, Japan

Tsunami Details

At 05:33 JST 27 Feb 2010   JMA Issued a Tsunami Warning for

  • OKINAWA ISLANDS

Residents were advised to:  “Evacuate from the seashore immediately to the safe places near the above coasts.”

A Tsunami Advisory was issued  for

  • AMAMI ISLANDS AND TOKARA ISLANDS
  • DAITOJIMA AREA
  • MIYAKOJIMA AND YAEYAMA AREA

At 07:01 JST 27 Feb 2010 JMA canceled all tsunami warnings and advisories: “No tsunami damage at the above coasts though there may be slight sea level changes from now on.”

JMA Tsunami code:
Tsunami Warning: “Tsunami height is expected to be up to 2 meters, keep watch on tsunamis.”
Tsunami Advisory: “Tsunami height is expected to be about 0.5 meters, pay attention to tsunamis.”

Fire-Earth anticipates intense (above average) seismic activity and volcanic unrest/activity in the Japan Region throughout 2010 and beyond.

Related Links:

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8th Strong Quake Strikes Ryukyu Islands, Japan

Posted by feww on February 7, 2010

Eighth Strong Earthquake Measuring 6.6Mw Strikes Japan Region

Background:

Referring to an earlier forecast, FEWW Moderators believe an additional series of 5 – 6 quakes measuring ≥ 6.0 Mw could strike Japan region in the coming weeks.

FEWW Moderators had previously anticipated more powerful earthquakes in the region, including as many as 10 additional magnitude 6+ quakes to strike the region in the coming weeks.

Earthquake Information Issued by JMA at 15:15 JST 07 Feb 2010

Occurred at (JST)

Latitude

Longitude

Depth

Mag.

Region Name

15:10 JST 07 Feb 2010

23.4ºN

124.0ºE

10km

6.6Mw

Ishigakijima Kinkai

Approximate distances (USGS)

  • 115 km (70 miles) SSW of Ishigaki-jima, Ryukyu Islands, Japan
  • 225 km (140 miles) ESE of Hua-lien, Taiwan
  • 225 km (140 miles) ESE of Su-ao, Taiwan
  • 2055 km (1280 miles) SW of TOKYO, Japan

Note: USGS/EHP has again downgraded the quake by 0.2 order of magnitude to 6.4Mw

Tsunami Forecast/Watch

JMA Issued a Tsunami Forecast at 15:13 JST 07 Feb 2010 for MIYAKOJIMA and YAEYAMA areas saying that tsunami height was expected to be about 0.5 meters.
However, the tsunami watch was later canceled. JMA said: “No tsunami damage at some of the other coasts though there may be slight sea level changes.:

Fire-Earth anticipates intense seismic activity and volcanic unrest/activity in the Japan Region throughout 2010 and beyond.

10-degree Map Centered at 25°N,125°E


Earthquake Location Map.
Source: USGS/EHP. Map enhanced by FEWW.


Political Map of Japan.

Related Links:

Posted in Japan quake, Japan Quake Forecast, Japan region quake, seismic event report, volcanism | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »