Japan Earthquakes: A Summary of Forecasts by FIRE-EARTH Blog
A number of colleagues and some of our readers have asked for a summary of the earthquake forecasts for Japan that were made by this blog.
1. On May 18, 2009 FIRE-EARTH said:
Earthquake Forecast: Tokyo, Japan
A powerful earthquake could strike near south coast of Honshu in late June – September 2009
FEWW Forecast: A magnitude 7.8+ quake could strike the Tokyo Bay area in the next 30-90 days.
Details of Forecast
Magnitude: 7.8 or larger
Estimated Date: June 14, 2009 [Uncertainty T+ 60 days]
Epicenter: 35.56°N, 139.98ºE
Location: Tokyo Bay, Tokyo, Japan
Depth: 8km [Uncertainty: +/- 2.4km]
Distances:
- 8 km south of Tokyo Disneyland
- 12 km SE of Imperial Palace
- 14 km WSW of Chiba City
- 19 km NE of Yokohama
Horizontal Uncertainty: +/- 3.8 km
Probability of Occurrence: 0.8
2. Between 9 – 12 August 2009, within the 60-day uncertainty time period stated in the forecast, 3 strong to powerful shocks struck Japan Region redistributing the earthquake stress energy and affecting the FIRE-EARTH Tokyo EQ Forecast:
3rd Powerful Quake in 3 Days Strikes Japan Region
1. A powerful earthquake measuring 7.1Mw struck about 165km W of Hachijo-jima, Izu Islands, Japan, at a depth of 303.1km at on August 9, 2009 at 10:55:56 UTC. [EQ No 1 on the location map below.]
2. A strong earthquake measuring 6.4 occurred about 30km SSW of Shizuoka, Japan, at a depth of 30km at 20:07:07 UTC on Monday, August 10, 2009. [No 2 on the location map below.]
3. A 3rd earthquake [this report] measuring 6.7 occurred about 60km ESE of Hachijo-jima, Izu Islands, Japan region at a depth of 51 km at 22:48:51 UTC on August 12, 2009. [No 3 on the location map below.]
Location map of the three significant earthquakes that struck Japan between 9 and 12 August 2009. Original Map: USGS
3. On August 17, 2009 after a 4th strong quake had struck Japan Region, having analyzed the new data, FIRE-EARTH forecast that as many as 10 additional magnitude 6+ quakes could yet strike the region [before a catastrophic event occurs.]
4th Powerful Quake Strikes Japan Region
Posted by feww on August 17, 2009
Magnitude 6.8 Quake Strikes Ryukyu Islands, Japan
FEWW Moderators had predicted more powerful earthquakes in the region last week, and now believe as many as 10 additional magnitude 6+ quakes could yet strike the region in coming weeks
Volcanic Activity Forecast
FEWW Moderators also believe there is a strong probability (0.8+) that the submarine Unnamed Volcano located East of Taiwan at 24.00N, 121.83E could erupt in 2009. [See previous comment.]
4. See below for a list of the shocks forecasted.
- Seventh Powerful Quake Hits Japan Region Posted by feww on October 30, 2009
- Global Earthquakes Tempi Rising Posted by feww on July 20, 2010
- Strong Earthquake Strikes East of Honshu, Japan Posted by feww on June 13, 2010
- FEWW Earthquake WARNING: JAPAN Region Posted by feww on September 4, 2009
- Powerful 6.9Mw Quake Strikes Bonin Islands, Japan Posted by feww on November 30, 2010
- M 7.4 Quake Strikes Japan Region Posted by feww on December 21, 2010
- Japan 7.2 Quake Strikes Off the Coast of Honshu Posted on 9 March 2011
5. List of the Latest Forecasts
- In Tectonics Update – March 10 FIRE-EARTH warned:
JAPAN’s Sendai Quake Aftershocks
At least 25 aftershocks have been reported by Japan’s Meteorological Agency (JMA) since yesterday’s powerful 7.2Mw quake which struck off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture, about 168km east of the city of Sendai.
Two of the largest shocks measured M6.1 and 6.8, striking Sanriku Oki region at 03:45 JST [03:51 JST 10 Mar 2011] and 06:24 JST [06:29 JST 10 Mar 2011] respectively.
FIRE-EARTH forecasts intense seismic activity in Japan Region during the 2011 – 2015 period.
Further deatails would be released on the need-to-know basis, partly to prevent Internet prophets from cashing in on FIRE-EARTH forecasts.
- In M 7.4 Quake Strikes Japan Region Posted by feww on December 21, 2010
FEWW Forecast
More powerful earthquakes, some related to this event, could strike Japan Region, much closer to the coastal areas.
On June 13, 2010, FIRE-EARTH forecast
Fire Earth Model shows that Japan region could be struck by up to 4 additional strong to large earthquakes possibly this year/early next year, one of which could be a catastrophic event.
- In M6.5 Strikes East Coast of Honshu, Japan Posted by feww on July 5, 2010 FEWW said:
Fire-Earth Quake Forecast: Japan Earthquakes
Japan region could be struck by up to 3 additional strong to large earthquakes by end 2010/early 2011, one of which could be a catastrophic event.
- In Honshu Earthquake Warning Posted by feww on November 10, 2010
Waves of Intense Seismic Activity Could Strike Eastern Honshu, Japan
The earthquakes could affect a wide region within 100 to 150 km radius of Tokyo Bay area.
- See also: Earthquake Forecast 2009
- In Tectonics Update – March 10 Posted by feww on March 10, 2011
FIRE-EARTH forecasts intense seismic activity in Japan Region during the 2011 – 2015 period.
Further deatails would be released on the need-to-know basis, partly to prevent Internet prophets from cashing in on FIRE-EARTH forecasts.
6. NEW FORECAST: As Many as 4 Large Earthquakes Could Strike Japan Region by 2015
- In MEGA QUAKE STRIKES NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU Posted by feww on March 11, 2011
This quake may be a foreshock, with a larger event yet to follow: FIRE-EARTH
7. In 2011 Much More Disastrous
Posted by feww on September 13, 2010, FEWW warned:
2011 SIX TIMES MORE DISASTROUS THAN 2010
Global Disasters in 2011 Could Impact 1/3 to 1/2 of the Human Population
The impact of anthropogenic and human-enhanced natural disasters on the population will be 600 percent more severe in 2011 compared with 2010: Fire-Earth Forecast
Earth is critically wounded and diseased as a result of human assault and battery.
Humans’ first wave of serious [near-fatal] assault on the planet began in the early 1980s and has since heightened in severity.
Our feverish planet‘s fight against the pathogens is entering a critical phase. The earth’s defense mechanism is employing geophysical phenomenon, as a result of which the impact of natural disasters on human population is intensifying.
In 2007 EDRO models showed that the intensity of disasters caused as a result of the planet’s self-healing process would lead to the first wave of collapse of the population centers, globally by about 2012.
It has!
The collapse has already started and would ultimately lead to the extinction [possibly the near-extinction] of human race.
For the EDRO forecast to be true, the final years leading to the start of collapse, namely 2010, 2011 and 2012, must necessarily be progressively more disastrous.
Based on its models, Fire-Earth Moderators forecast in late December 2009 that 2010 would prove to be the most disastrous year on record. And with more than 100 days left to the end of this year, the forecast has already proven to be true and accurate.
What about 2011?
Fire-Earth models show that the impact of anthropogenic and human-enhanced natural disasters would be about 600 percent more severe in 2011 compared with this year.
Based on our findings, we estimate that between one-third and one-half of the world population could be affected in some way by various disasters that are forecast to occur in 2011.
Fire Earth 