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CONSON Leaves 72 dead with at least 95 others missing in the Philippines and Vietnam
Typhoon CONSON (Basyang) claimed 68 lives in the Philippines with another 84 people reported missing. Up to 30,000 homes were reportedly destroyed or damaged.
At least 2 people were also killed in China, and 2 in Vietnam with 11 others reported as missing.
“Conson slammed into the country on Tuesday, directly hitting the capital Manila as it cut westward into the South China Sea with a ferocity that caught weather forecasters by surprise.” AFP reported.
Bystanders look at the body of a dead fisherman in Mariveles, Bataan. Credit: AFP. Image may be subject to copyright.
Typhoon CONSON lost most of it ferocity, slamming into northern Vietnam as a tropical storm late Saturday, having pummeled the Philippines and the Chinese island of Hainan earlier in the week. Thousands of people were evacuated from their homes in the north of Vietnam.
CONSON is downgraded to a tropical depression, but should continue to dump more rain in the mountainous areas in the north of Vietnam causing flash floods and landslides for another 48 to 72 hours.
Weather models provide useful information, but they can’t project the larger picture
Storms and other natural phenomena serve to rejuvenate and ensure streams of life flow unimpeded. If you find their impact devastating, it’s because you are looking at the wrong roadmap.
Super Typhoon Lupit. Date/Time as inset. Click on image to animate.
MTSAT IR Image. Updated at 30 mins intervals. Click image to enlarge.
Summary of Lupit Latest Data (October 19 at (03:00 UTC)
Intensity: Super Typhoon (Very Strong)
Center position: 18.7° N, E 133.8°E
Direction and speed: N (340 degrees) at 9km/h (5kt)
Central pressure: 930hPa
Maximum sustained winds: 250 km/h, or70m/s (135kt)
Max. wind gusts: 307km/h (165kt)
Area of 50kt or greater winds: 200km wide (110NM)
Area of 30kt or greater winds: 440km wide (240NM)
Source(s): JMA; JTWC
Significant wave height: 11 m (32 feet)
Super Typhoon LUPIT (22W) is currently located about 1455 km (785 nm) ENE of Manila, Philippines, having moved north-northwestward at a forward speed of about 9 km/h (05 knots) during the previous six hours. LUPIT is turning back towards the west because a mid-latitude trough has left the region and the subtropical ridge is beginning to build in. LUPIT may be unable to retain super typhoon intensity and could slightly weaken before moving closer to northern Luzon, JTWC reported.
LUPIT 3-day projected track. Image: JMA. Image may be subject to copyright. Click image to enlarge!
Super Typhoon LUPIT Projected Track. Solid centers represent wind forces stronger than 117km/h. Source: JTWC. Click image to enlarge!
Would Lupit avoid Luzon, or will it be the storm that drove the island closer to edge of collapse?
Just weeks after storm Ketsana left its deadly legacy, and days after Typhoon Parma worsened the misery, storm Lupit, forecast to be a typhoon, is racing west towards the islands of Luzon and Taiwan.
At 21:00UTC on October 15, tropical storm LUPIT (22w) was located near 12.8N, 137.9E or about 315 km north of Yap moving west along the southern periphery of the Subtropical Ridge (STR) at about 33km/h.
Storm Lupit races west. MTSAT – Visible Image – Still Frame. Click image to enhance and update.
LUPITis expected to intensify steadily as it continues through the Philippine Sea because the environment is forecast to remain favorable, “characterized by minimal vertical wind shear, good radial outflow and high ocean heat content,” JTWC reported.
It is forecast to move West Northwest at reduced speeds of about 26 kph. Intertropical Convergence Zone (itcz) will affect Southern Luzon and Visayas, PAGASA reported.
Lupit expected to generate maximum significant wave height of 5 meters.
How much would storm Lupit affect Luzon, Philippines? MTSAT – IR CH1 – Still Frame. Click image to enhance and update.
FEWW Forecast: Moderators believe if Cyclone LUPIT were to merge with [feed on] the “storm placenta” to its south (encircled on the image), it could probably
1. Reorganize, strengthening into a super typhoon.
2. Alter its projected course, moving toward a westerly direction and targeting southern Luzon.
Image of the Day:
‘Pepeng’ [Parma] may have gone; Floods, risk of landslides remain strong
More than a week after Parma first hit N Luzon, the roads in central Dagupan city, northern Philippines remain flooded.
Residents wade through a flooded road brought on rains by typhoon Parma in central Dagupan city in northern Philippines October 10, 2009. REUTERS/Erik de Castro. Image may be subject to copyright.
“The most important thing is to open roads so we can send relief goods because we cannot hope to find alternate routes,” said Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro .
“As of now, food and relief materials can only be delivered by helicopters because it will take 2-5 days to clear up roads and bridges washed out by floods and landslides,” said Lieutenant-Colonel Ernesto Torres, of the national disaster agency.
About 500,000 tons of ready to harvest rice and other crops have been destroyed by the two storms, Ketsana and Parma, the equivalent of about 7 percent of 2009 fourth quarter forecast harvest of 6.5 million tons, said Jesus Emmanuel Paras, Agriculture undersecretary.
Various sources have estimated the cost of damage to crops and infrastructure at up to $500million.
On Thursday, October 1, 2009 at about 08:00 UTC, Parma became a super typhoon. It’s expected to gain more strength before landfall.
Will it or won’t it?
It’s academic whether Parma will directly strike Manila. More rain for a city already buried in chest-high floodwater is just as deadly.
Could Manila Collapse?
Could Manila collapse as a result of devastation caused by the combined impact of the storms Ketsana, Parma (and Melor, next week), as well as possible earthquakes triggered by landslides and massive mud avalanches, AND a highly probable catastrophic eruption of TAAL VOLCANO?
One way to find out is to wait and see! Another, is to stay tuned to FEWW forecasts and comments posted on this blog.
Super Typhoon Parma (see inset for date and time) – MTSAT/NPMOC/JTWC – Click on image to enlarge and view latest update.
Typhoon Parma – October 1, 2009
As the death toll from Tropical Storm Ketsana continued to climb, residents of the Philippines braced for Typhoon Parma, which continued its westward path across the Pacific Ocean on October 1, 2009. The same day, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this true-color image. Coastlines of the Philippines appear in black, and storm clouds hide the satellite’s view of most of the land areas. Clouds actually fill most of this image, with the eye of the storm appearing in the right half of the picture and long arms extending westward over land. NASA image by Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team, Goddard Space Flight Center. [Original caption edited by FEWW]
Typhoon Parma – September 30, 2009
Tropical Storm [Now Super Typhoon] Parma headed westward over the Pacific Ocean, en route to the northern Philippines on September 30, 2009. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this true-color image the same day. NASA image created by Jesse Allen, using data provided courtesy of the MODIS Rapid Response team. Caption by Michon Scott. [Edited by FEWW]
Latest Details (as of posting)
Position: near 12.7N 129.1 E.
Location: Approximately 520 NM East-Southeast of Manila, Philippines AST-
Moving WNW at a forward speed of about 16 knots
Intensity: Super Typhoon; expected to further intensify before landfall probably on NE coast of Luzon
Super typhoon Parma is already affecting the country
A Main Street in suburban Cainta, east of Manila, flooded chest-deep. Sunday, September 27, 2009. Mike Alquinto / AP Photo. Image may be subject to copyright.
What will the people do?
Forced evacuations in northern provinces may occur, ahead of the Parma’s landfall.
Parma would bring more torrential rains causing a second wave of chaos across Manila and nearby provinces by impeding what little relief efforts some 2.5 million people are receiving after their lives were turned upside-down by TS Katsana.
More people are bound to perish from the impact of Parma.
So far 277 people have been confirmed killed in the wake of Ketsana, with 42 still missing. The numbers would rise further.
Up to 700,000 people who lost their homes to landslides and mud avalanches in Manila and nearby provinces are currently staying in makeshift evacuation centers. The psychological and physical impacts of living in cramped condition for prolonged periods of time would be devastating, especially among children.
Satellite animation of Typhoons Parma and Melor in the Pacific Ocean
Fire Earth 
