Posted by feww on October 19, 2009
Listening to the Planet’s Pulse
Weather models provide useful information, but they can’t project the larger picture
Storms and other natural phenomena serve to rejuvenate and ensure streams of life flow unimpeded. If you find their impact devastating, it’s because you are looking at the wrong roadmap.
Super Typhoon Lupit. Date/Time as inset. Click on image to animate.
MTSAT IR Image. Updated at 30 mins intervals. Click image to enlarge.
Background and More images:
Summary of Lupit Latest Data (October 19 at (03:00 UTC)
- Intensity: Super Typhoon (Very Strong)
- Center position: 18.7° N, E 133.8°E
- Direction and speed: N (340 degrees) at 9km/h (5kt)
- Central pressure: 930hPa
- Maximum sustained winds: 250 km/h, or70m/s (135kt)
- Max. wind gusts: 307km/h (165kt)
- Area of 50kt or greater winds: 200km wide (110NM)
- Area of 30kt or greater winds: 440km wide (240NM)
- Source(s): JMA; JTWC
- Significant wave height: 11 m (32 feet)
Super Typhoon LUPIT (22W) is currently located about 1455 km (785 nm) ENE of Manila, Philippines, having moved north-northwestward at a forward speed of about 9 km/h (05 knots) during the previous six hours. LUPIT is turning back towards the west because a mid-latitude trough has left the region and the subtropical ridge is beginning to build in. LUPIT may be unable to retain super typhoon intensity and could slightly weaken before moving closer to northern Luzon, JTWC reported.
LUPIT 3-day projected track. Image: JMA. Image may be subject to copyright. Click image to enlarge!
Super Typhoon LUPIT Projected Track. Solid centers represent wind forces stronger than 117km/h. Source: JTWC. Click image to enlarge!
Satellite Loops/Animation/Images
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Posted in Dagupan city, deluge in Dagupan, Ketsana, landslides, Luzon, luzon flooding, luzon landslides, Malnutrition, Manila Collapsing, Pepeng, Philippines, philippines floods, Philippines rain, probability of Manila collapsing, Typhoon Melor, Typhoon Parma, Typhoons, Visayas | Tagged: ecological collapse, Intertropical Convergence Zone, Lupit, LUPIT Forecast, LUPIT projected path, LUPIT Projected track, Philippine Sea, Philippines, RAMIL, sociological collapse, storm 22w, storm Ketsana, storm Lupit, storm RAMIL, Subtropical Ridge, Super Typhoon Lupit, super typhoon ramil, TS Lupit, ts lupit forecast track, Typhoon Lupit, Typhoon Parma, typhoon ramil | 1 Comment »
Posted by feww on October 16, 2009
FEWW Forecast appears at bottom of page!
LUPIT Races West Toward Philippines and Taiwan
Would Lupit avoid Luzon, or will it be the storm that drove the island closer to edge of collapse?
Just weeks after storm Ketsana left its deadly legacy, and days after Typhoon Parma worsened the misery, storm Lupit, forecast to be a typhoon, is racing west towards the islands of Luzon and Taiwan.
At 21:00UTC on October 15, tropical storm LUPIT (22w) was located near 12.8N, 137.9E or about 315 km north of Yap moving west along the southern periphery of the Subtropical Ridge (STR) at about 33km/h.
Storm Lupit races west. MTSAT – Visible Image – Still Frame. Click image to enhance and update.
LUPITis expected to intensify steadily as it continues through the Philippine Sea because the environment is forecast to remain favorable, “characterized by minimal vertical wind shear, good radial outflow and high ocean heat content,” JTWC reported.
It is forecast to move West Northwest at reduced speeds of about 26 kph. Intertropical Convergence Zone (itcz) will affect Southern Luzon and Visayas, PAGASA reported.
Lupit expected to generate maximum significant wave height of 5 meters.
How much would storm Lupit affect Luzon, Philippines? MTSAT – IR CH1 – Still Frame. Click image to enhance and update.
Cyclone LUPIT Projected track. Solid centers represent wind forces stronger than 117km/h. Source: JTWC.
FEWW Forecast: Moderators believe if Cyclone LUPIT were to merge with [feed on] the “storm placenta” to its south (encircled on the image), it could probably
1. Reorganize, strengthening into a super typhoon.
2. Alter its projected course, moving toward a westerly direction and targeting southern Luzon.
Satellite Loops/Animation
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Posted in Dagupan city, deluge in Dagupan, Ketsana, landslides, Luzon, luzon flooding, luzon landslides, Malnutrition, Manila Collapsing, Pepeng, Philippines, philippines floods, Philippines rain, probability of Manila collapsing, sanitation, Typhoon Melor, Typhoon Parma, Typhoons, Visayas | Tagged: Cyclone Lupit, Cyclone LUPIT Projected track, ecological collapse, Intertropical Convergence Zone, LUPIT Forecast, LUPIT projected path, Philippine Sea, Philippines, sociological collapse, storm 22w, storm Ketsana, storm Lupit, Storm Placenta, Subtropical Ridge, TS Lupit, ts lupit forecast track, Typhoon Parma | 2 Comments »
Posted by feww on October 11, 2009
Image of the Day:
‘Pepeng’ [Parma] may have gone; Floods, risk of landslides remain strong
More than a week after Parma first hit N Luzon, the roads in central Dagupan city, northern Philippines remain flooded.
Residents wade through a flooded road brought on rains by typhoon Parma in central Dagupan city in northern Philippines October 10, 2009. REUTERS/Erik de Castro. Image may be subject to copyright.
“The most important thing is to open roads so we can send relief goods because we cannot hope to find alternate routes,” said Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro .
“As of now, food and relief materials can only be delivered by helicopters because it will take 2-5 days to clear up roads and bridges washed out by floods and landslides,” said Lieutenant-Colonel Ernesto Torres, of the national disaster agency.
About 500,000 tons of ready to harvest rice and other crops have been destroyed by the two storms, Ketsana and Parma, the equivalent of about 7 percent of 2009 fourth quarter forecast harvest of 6.5 million tons, said Jesus Emmanuel Paras, Agriculture undersecretary.
Various sources have estimated the cost of damage to crops and infrastructure at up to $500million.
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Posted in Dagupan city, hantavirus, hepatitis, Ketsana, Luzon, luzon flooding, luzon landslides, Malnutrition, Manila Collapsing, Melor, Parma, Philippines, philippines floods, Philippines rain, probability of Manila collapsing, sanitation, Typhoon Melor, Typhoon Parma, Typhoons | Tagged: Dagupan city, deluge in Dagupan, landslides, luzon flooding, Pepeng, Philippines landslides, Typhoon Parma | Leave a Comment »
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