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Archive for the ‘Luzon’ Category

MEGI Regaining Strength, Headed Toward China

Posted by feww on October 19, 2010

Typhoon MEGI Regaining Strength on the Way to China

MEGI killed at least a dozen people in the Philippines; it has now cleared Luzon, and is expected to strike China’s southern Guangdong province, possibly as a cat 4 to 5 hurricane in the next 72 hours.


Typhoon MEGI Regaining Strength in South China Sea. IR Satellite Image (NHC Enhancement). Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.

The super typhoon cut a swathe of destruction through northern Luzon, the main island of the Philippines, destroying tens of thousands of homes, uprooting trees, cutting power and communication lines and affecting at least  a million people in five of the country’s northern provinces and the resort city Baguio.

The typhoon also caused extensive flooding and triggererd landslides throughout the region.

About 80 percent of homes “in rice-producing Ilagan and Tumauini towns were destroyed or damaged,” a report said.

“We’ll try to reach coastal towns facing the Pacific, because there were reports 90 percent of the houses there were wiped out,” a senior official told reporters.


Typhoon MEGI Forecast paths. Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.

As of posting Vietnam and Thailand’s northeast have seen extensive flooding, leaving thousands of people homeless with four reported deaths so far, reports say.

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Posted in Cagayan, Ilagan, Isabela province, Luzon, Tumauini, typhoon | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Super Typhoon LUPIT: The Sauntering Storm

Posted by feww on October 19, 2009

Listening to the Planet’s Pulse

Weather models provide useful information, but they can’t project the larger picture

Storms and other natural phenomena serve to rejuvenate and ensure streams of life flow unimpeded. If you find their impact devastating, it’s because you are looking at the wrong roadmap.

Super Typhoon Lupit
Super Typhoon Lupit. Date/Time as inset. Click on image to animate.


MTSAT IR Image. Updated at 30 mins intervals. Click image to enlarge.

Background and More images:

Summary of Lupit Latest Data  (October 19 at (03:00 UTC)

  • Intensity: Super Typhoon (Very Strong)
  • Center position:  18.7° N, E 133.8°E
  • Direction and speed: N (340 degrees) at 9km/h (5kt)
  • Central pressure: 930hPa
  • Maximum sustained winds:  250 km/h, or70m/s (135kt)
  • Max. wind gusts:  307km/h (165kt)
  • Area of 50kt or greater winds:   200km wide (110NM)
  • Area of 30kt or greater winds:   440km wide (240NM)
  • Source(s): JMA; JTWC
  • Significant wave height: 11 m (32 feet)

Super Typhoon LUPIT (22W) is currently located about 1455 km (785 nm) ENE of Manila, Philippines, having moved north-northwestward at a forward speed of about 9 km/h (05 knots) during the previous six hours. LUPIT is turning back towards the west because a mid-latitude trough has left the region and the subtropical ridge is beginning to build in. LUPIT may be unable to retain super typhoon intensity and could slightly weaken before moving closer to  northern Luzon, JTWC reported.

lupit - jma oct 19 - 0000utc
LUPIT 3-day projected track. Image: JMA. Image may be subject to copyright. Click image to enlarge!

wp22 - JTWC
Super Typhoon LUPIT Projected Track
. Solid centers represent wind forces stronger than 117km/h. Source: JTWC.
Click image to enlarge!

Satellite Loops/Animation/Images

Other Satellite Images:

Related Links:

Posted in Dagupan city, deluge in Dagupan, Ketsana, landslides, Luzon, luzon flooding, luzon landslides, Malnutrition, Manila Collapsing, Pepeng, Philippines, philippines floods, Philippines rain, probability of Manila collapsing, Typhoon Melor, Typhoon Parma, Typhoons, Visayas | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

LUPIT: The Mercy Storm?

Posted by feww on October 16, 2009

FEWW Forecast appears at bottom of page!

LUPIT Races West Toward Philippines and Taiwan

Would Lupit avoid Luzon, or will it be the storm that drove the island closer to edge of collapse?

Just weeks after storm Ketsana left its deadly legacy, and days after Typhoon Parma worsened the misery, storm Lupit, forecast to be a typhoon, is racing west towards the islands of Luzon and Taiwan.

At 21:00UTC on October 15, tropical storm  LUPIT (22w)  was located  near 12.8N, 137.9E or about 315 km north of Yap moving west along the southern periphery of the Subtropical Ridge (STR) at about 33km/h.

ts lupit -
Storm Lupit races west. MTSAT – Visible Image – Still Frame. Click image to enhance and update.

LUPITis expected to intensify steadily as it continues through the Philippine Sea because the environment is forecast to remain favorable, “characterized by minimal vertical wind shear, good radial outflow and high ocean heat content,” JTWC reported.

It is forecast to move West Northwest at reduced speeds of about 26 kph. Intertropical Convergence Zone (itcz) will affect Southern Luzon and Visayas, PAGASA reported.

Lupit expected to generate maximum significant wave height of 5 meters.

LUPIT Pagasa
How much would storm Lupit affect Luzon, Philippines? MTSAT – IR CH1 – Still Frame. Click image to enhance and update.

LUPIT forecast cyclone position
Cyclone LUPIT Projected track. Solid centers represent wind forces stronger than 117km/h. Source: JTWC.

lupit analysis

FEWW Forecast: Moderators believe if Cyclone LUPIT were to merge with [feed on] the “storm placenta” to its south (encircled on the image), it could probably

1. Reorganize, strengthening  into a super typhoon.
2. Alter its projected course, moving toward a westerly direction and targeting southern Luzon.

Satellite Loops/Animation

Other Satellite Images:


Related Links:

Posted in Dagupan city, deluge in Dagupan, Ketsana, landslides, Luzon, luzon flooding, luzon landslides, Malnutrition, Manila Collapsing, Pepeng, Philippines, philippines floods, Philippines rain, probability of Manila collapsing, sanitation, Typhoon Melor, Typhoon Parma, Typhoons, Visayas | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Philippines Still Flooded

Posted by feww on October 11, 2009

Image of the Day:
‘Pepeng’ [Parma] may have gone;
Floods, risk of landslides remain strong

More than a week after Parma first hit N Luzon, the roads  in central Dagupan city, northern Philippines remain flooded.


Residents wade through a flooded road brought on rains by typhoon Parma in central Dagupan city in northern Philippines October 10, 2009. REUTERS/Erik de Castro. Image may be subject to copyright.

“The most important thing is to open roads so we can send relief goods because we cannot hope to find alternate routes,” said Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro .

“As of now, food and relief materials can only be delivered by helicopters because it will take 2-5 days to clear up roads and bridges washed out by floods and landslides,” said Lieutenant-Colonel Ernesto Torres, of the national disaster agency.

About 500,000 tons of ready to harvest rice and other crops have been destroyed by the two storms, Ketsana and Parma, the equivalent of about 7 percent of 2009 fourth quarter forecast harvest of 6.5 million tons, said Jesus Emmanuel Paras, Agriculture undersecretary.

Various sources have estimated the cost of damage to crops and infrastructure at up to $500million.

Related Links:

Posted in Dagupan city, hantavirus, hepatitis, Ketsana, Luzon, luzon flooding, luzon landslides, Malnutrition, Manila Collapsing, Melor, Parma, Philippines, philippines floods, Philippines rain, probability of Manila collapsing, sanitation, Typhoon Melor, Typhoon Parma, Typhoons | Tagged: , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Philippines Terminally Impacted?

Posted by feww on October 10, 2009

Our thanks to EDRO Moderators for their input and direction

Ketsana, Parma and Melor: Harbingers of Bad Times Ahead?

Did the Three Storms Spell the Beginning of the End for the Philippines as We Know it?

On September 26, 2009 FEWW called the floods caused by storm Ketsana Philippines Worst Floods in Living Memory. Soon the fool extent of the human-enhanced disaster unfolded, as Tropical Storm Ketsana poured more than a month’s worth of rain on Manila in just a few hours.

About 300 people were killed in the Philippines worst floods in living memory caused by tropical storm Ketsana on September 26, which swamped about half a million homes in the Manila and nearby regions. By mid day September 27, about 80 to 90 percent of the Philippines capital was still submerged under water.


Commuters wade through waist-deep floodwaters following heavy rains brought about by tropical storm Ketsana (locally known as Ondoy) Saturday Sept. 26, 2009 in Manila, Philippines. At least five people have been killed after nearly a month’s worth of rain fell in just six hours Saturday, triggering the worst flooding in the Philippine capital in 42 years, stranding thousands on rooftops in the city and elsewhere as Tropical Storm Ketsana slammed ashore. (AP Photo/Bullit Marquez). Image may be subject to copyright.

FEWW Moderators expected Typhoon Parma to expand the destruction, and for the first time mentioned the probability of Manila collapsing.

Finally Parma Arrived!

Parma came, but for fleeting moments it looked like it could spare the Philippines main Island of Luzon. FEWW Moderators weren’t deceived, however. Driven by a more powerful storm, Typhoon Melor, which pinwheeled the by now weaker storm, ensuring that it would stay over northern Luzon for the next few days, Parma caused another round of deluge in Northern Luzon.

Could Manila Collapse?

On October 1, 2009, as Parma became a “super Typhoon, the moderators proposed:

Could Manila collapse as a result of devastation caused by the combined impact of the storms Ketsana, Parma (and  Melor, next week), as well as possible earthquakes triggered by landslides and massive mud avalanches, AND a highly probable catastrophic eruption of TAAL VOLCANO?

And suggested:

One way to find out is to wait and see! Another, is to stay tuned to FEWW forecasts and comments posted on this blog.

By Saturday October 10, 2009 at least 265 people were confirmed dead as landslides and flooding caused by Parma in the previous two days, the officials said.

Toll from heavy rain in Philippines rose further as more bodies were recovered -afp
A total of 265 people were confirmed dead in landslides and flooding caused by Parma in the past two days. Photo: AFP. Image may be subject to copyright.

This death toll from the deadly storms now stands at 611 with dozens more reported missing. Two weeks after Ketsana struck, up to 350,000 people are still packed into temporary evacuation centers. More than 3 million people have been affected.

But the Philippines worst nightmare hasn’t even started.

The specter of infectious disease outbreaks looms over the Philippines. Up to 3 million people in the country are immediately threatened by the very high risk of outbreaks of water-, sanitation-, and hygiene-related disease as well as foodborne epidemics including cholera, hepatitis A and E, typhoid fever, and shigellosis (caused by Shigella dysenteriae type 1 (Sd1), according to health officials.

The factors that are increasing health risks include:

  • Malnutrition
    • compromises natural immunity,
    • leads to more frequent occurrences of infections
    • Infections become more severe and prolonged
    • communicable diseases become more difficult to diagnose and treat
    • pose significant threat to public health
    • infants and children are particularly at risk
  • Disruption in power and fuel supplies with immediate impact on
    • drinking water
    • sanitation
    • personal hygiene
    • food production hygiene, refrigeration  and cooking facilities
  • Displaced population and overcrowding
    • overcrowding in temporary relief centers would heighten the risk of acquiring
      • acute respiratory infections (ARI)
      • measles
      • meningitis.

By end of November/early December 2009, additional exposure to disease-carrying vectors such as mosquitoes could increase the risk of

  • dengue
  • malaria

As well as rarer diseases such as

  • chikungunya
  • hantavirus
  • Japanese encephalitis

Disruption of Critical Services caused by flooding would prevent access to

  • health and social and security
  • medical, obstetric and surgical emergencies

Rainfall from Typhoon Parma

TYPH parma_trm_2009282
Typhoon Parma spent nearly a week pouring heavy rain on the northern half of the Philippine island of Luzon. This image shows both the storm’s track and the rainfall that accumulated between October 2 and October 8, 2009. The rainfall data are from the Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis, which includes rainfall observations from many satellites that are calibrated to match more detailed rainfall observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. The satellites recorded more than 700 millimeters (28 inches) of rain in places, shown in dark blue.

The heaviest rain fell on the mountain range that runs north to south along the length of the island, the Cordillera Central. Damages came from landslides on the slopes of the mountains and from floods caused by water flowing out of the mountains west to the South China Sea. The largest area of heavy rain sits over the Lingayen Gulf, the “u”-shaped body of water on the western shore of Luzon near the bottom of the image. One province in this region, Pangasinan, was between 60 and 80 percent flooded. The highest death toll came from another province, Benguet, a little north and east of Lingayen Gulf, where landslides impacted several villages.

The storm came ashore from the east and crossed the northern tip of the island on October 3, 2009. Under the influence of nearby Typhoon Melor, Parma stalled offshore, unleashing yet more rain on Luzon while spinning in place on October 4-5. Finally, the storm reversed direction and moved back across the Philippines toward Typhoon Melor on October 7. By October 8, Melor’s influence on Parma weakened, and Parma moved west again to make its third trip across Luzon Island. Many of the areas of heavy rain coincide with areas that likely saw Parma’s most intense inner bands more than once throughout the course of the week.

NASA Earth Observatory image by Jesse Allen, using near-real-time data provided courtesy of TRMM Science Data and Information System at Goddard Space Flight Center. Caption by Holli Riebeek. [Edited by FEWW]

Related Links:

Posted in Chikungunya, Displaced population, hantavirus, hepatitis, Japanese encephalitis, Ketsana, Luzon, Malnutrition, Manila Collapsing, Melor, Parma, Philippines, probability of Manila collapsing, sanitation, the Beginning of the End cholera, Typhoon Melor, Typhoon Parma, Typhoons | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Philippines Extreme Rain from TS Ketsana

Posted by feww on September 29, 2009

TRMM  Image: Heavy Rains in Philippines

philippines_trm_2009270
Tropical Storm Ketsana dropped a month’s worth of rain on the Philippine capital of Manila in just a few hours on September 26, 2009. Streets resembled rivers, covered by water that was chest high and still rising. Soon, death tolls climbed from dozens to over 200, with more casualties expected and search and rescue efforts continued. More than 330,000 were believed to be affected. The flooding was the worst in living memory, prompting the officials to declare a “state of calamity” in Manila and 25 provinces affected by the storm.

The estimates, acquired by multiple satellites, are calibrated with rainfall measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite in the Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis. The highest rainfall amounts—more than 600 millimeters (23.6 inches)—appear in blue. The lightest amounts appear in pale green. Gray shading indicates island topography of the Philippines.
NASA image by Jesse Allen, using near-real-time data provided courtesy of TRMM Science Data and Information System at Goddard Space Flight Center. Caption by Michon Scott. [Edited by FEWW]

Related Links:

Posted in Climate Change, climate triggered earthquakes, deluge in Philippines, Earthquakes, energy dinosaurs, Luzon, manila flood, philippines disaster areas, philippines flood, Rizal province, State of Calamity, TS Ondoy, World CO2 Emissions | Tagged: , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Philippines Worst Ever Flood Casualties Climb a Notch

Posted by feww on September 27, 2009

100 Dead, Many Missing after Typhoon Ketsana

Philippines govt has appealed for international aid as 250,000 people are forced to abandon their homes


“We’re appealing for more donations of food, water and warm clothes,” the country’s Defense Secretary said.

The death toll from Typhoon Ketsana [aka TS Ondoy] has risen to about 100 with scores more reported missing.

flood Manila AFP
Pedestrians cling to a rope as they cross a heavily flooded street in Manila, Phillipines. Picture: AFP/GETTY. Image may be subject to copyright.

Although the storm is now clearing up,  some reports estimate that up to 90% of the capital, Manila, is still submerged under water.

Many people are stuck either on their roofs or in the top floor of their homes, a report said, while the entire city is without clean water and electricity, and road have turned into deep rivers submerging cars even buses.

Typhoon Ketsana, which struck the Philippines main island of Luzon with winds of more than 100 kph on Saturday, is now heading toward the South China Sea.

Related Links:

Photos/ videos:

Posted in global deluge, Ketsana, Luzon, manila flood, State of Calamity, TS Ketsana, TS Ondoy, typhoon Ondoy | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Floods and Mudslides

Posted by feww on May 9, 2009

More drought and deluge, more flooding and landslide, just about everywhere!

This season, the extreme weather and rain events may be worse than the previous season, and the worsening pattern is expected to continue.

Brazil

Brazil flood
People travel by boat in a flooded street in Trizidela do Vale, state of Maranhao, Brazil, Saturday, May 9, 2009. The flooding in northern Brazil is the worst in 20 years, and experts have warned river levels including the Amazon could hit records not seen since 1953 by June. (AP Photo/Andre Penner). Image may be subject to copyright.

Residents walk on a street which was flooded by the Poti river in Teresina in the northeastern Brazilian state of Piaui May 8, 2009. According to Brazilian Civil Defense, floods and mudslides from months of heavy rains in northern Brazil have driven more than 214,000 from their homes and killed at least 38 people. REUTERS/Paulo Whitaker (BRAZIL ENVIRONMENT DISASTER). Image may be subject to copyright.


An aerial view of streets flooded by Tocantins river in Maraba, north of Brazil May 6, 2009. REUTERS/Paulo Whitaker (BRAZIL ENVIRONMENT DISASTER)
. Image may be subject to copyright.

Flooding in the southern part of Brazil in November and December 2008 killed about 130 people and left another 40 missing.

Philippines

The Philippines rice production could suffer by as much as 10 percent this season.

chan holm -reuters TV
Extensive flooding caused by Chan Holm. Image from Reuters Video. Image may be subject to copyright.

Typhoon Chan-Holm, the fifth to hit the Philippines this year, battered the northern Philippines tearing roofs off houses, destroying roads, bridges, and other infrastructure, and felled power lines in several provinces on the main island, Luzon. Heavy rains triggered extensive mudslides killing at least 15 people, officials said on Friday.

“Forecast second quarter national rice production was cut by more than 1 percent after Typhoon Kujira hit the central Philippines last weekend, killing 27 people.” Reuters reported.

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Posted in Luzon, Maraba, rice production forecast, Typhoon Chan-Holm, Typhoon Kujira | Tagged: , , , , | 1 Comment »

Week 35 Volcano Watch

Posted by feww on September 6, 2008

27 August-2 September 2008

New Activity/Unrest:


Deposits from the pyroclastic flow on 25 August 2008. Inset shows image from thermal camera. Source: Montserrat Volcano Observatory’s photostream. Image may be subject to copyright.

Ongoing Activity:

See the GVP Home Page for news of the latest significant activity.

The Weekly Volcanic Activity Report is a cooperative project between the Smithsonian’s Global Volcanism Program and the US Geological Survey’s Volcano Hazards Program.

Posted in chile, colombia, environment, food, Fox Islands, health, Llaima, Luzon, Nevado del Huila, Okmok, Taal | Tagged: , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »