Mayon Alert Raised to Level 4

Mayon Major Eruption Expected Within Days

Fire Earth Forecast: 76% chance Mayon explodes before 2010

State volcanologist in the Philippines raised the Mayon Volcano (13.2576 N, 123.6856 E) alert status  to level on Sunday at 14:30 local time, which means they expect a major eruption within days.

PHIVOLCS reported Sunday that the advancing lava flow had traveled about 4.5 kilometers from the crater along Bonga-Buyuan Gully. Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) emission had increased from 2,034 MT per day (t/d) to 7,024 t/d.

Their seismic network had recorded a total of two hundred twenty two (222) volcanic quakes and tremors in the previous 24 hours, they said.

According to other reports rumbling sounds were heard in Santa Misericordia village near Santo Domingo town, about 8.5 km to the east of Mt Mayon.

Related Links to Mayon Posts and Updates:

• 76% chance Mayon explodes before 2010

• Volcano UPDATE: Mt Mayon Could Explode
• Mayon Lava in Interesting Times!
• Mayon Volcano Oozes Lava
• Strong Earthquake Strikes Mindanao, Philippines
• VolcanoWatch Weekly [11 Nov 2009]
• Latest From TAAL and other Philippines Volcanoes
• Mount Mayon neighbors on evacuation alert
• Mayon Volcano Ejects Ash

76% chance Mayon explodes before 2010

MAYON MAY EXPLODE BY YEAREND: FEWW

More than 250 tremors recorded at Mt Mayon, a sign that the volcano may be about to explode.

About 4 dozen minor explosions have occurred at the volcano, accompanied by off-white columns of smoke, gasses and ash that were ejected to a height of about 1,000 meters  above the summit,  according to the Phivolcs’ latest bulletin.

Below are some of the highlights of latest reports on Mayon:

• Mayon’s activity has intensified since Friday.

• Emissions of sulfur dioxide have exceeded 2,000 tons per day.

• The lava flow has reached about 4 km from the summit crater along the Bonga Gully, generating secondary pyroclastic flows.

• As the buildup of new lava on the cone continues to increase, the additional weight would cause the edifice to collapse, while the buildup of pressure inside the volcano would most probably result in a major  explosion.

• Based on the the available evidence, Fire Earth Moderators believe there’s a 76 percent  chance  that Mt Mayon could explode before the year’s end.

• If the volcano explodes, more lava would flow out of the crater.

• Phivolcs officials are contemplating on raising the alert level at Mayon Volcano to  Level 4, which would indicate “hazardous volcanic eruption” is imminent.

• Albay Public Safety and Emergency Management officials said more than 40,000 people or about 8,500 families from 30 villages had already been evacuated to 24 temporary shelters by noon Saturday.

The regional govt in Albay may evacuate an additional 70,000 villagers, in case heavy rains in the area threaten a repeat  2006 nightmare  in which more than 1,000 perished after typhoon Durian triggered mudslides of volcanic ash on November 30, which buried  several villages near the foot of the mountain.

Many of the villagers who have been evacuated reportedly sneak back into their villages to look after their animals and ready-to-harvest seasonal crops.

Related Links and Previous UPDATES:

• Volcano UPDATE: Mt Mayon Could Explode
• Mayon Lava in Interesting Times!
• Mayon Volcano Oozes Lava
• Strong Earthquake Strikes Mindanao, Philippines
• VolcanoWatch Weekly [11 Nov 2009]
• Latest From TAAL and other Philippines Volcanoes
• Mount Mayon neighbors on evacuation alert
• Mayon Volcano Ejects Ash

Volcano UPDATE: Mt Mayon Could Explode

Mayon: What might happen next

After an explosive eruption, the “perfect cone” could disappear partially or altogether

A major hazardous eruption could lead to large explosions destroying Mt Mayon. The erupting volcano could empty its magma chamber causing the much-admired “perfect cone” edifice to collapse into its depleted reservoir, and forming a caldera.

BEFORE: Mayon volcano,  located in a coconut-growing region of the central Philippines, is famed for its near-perfect cone shape. Mt Mayon. Credit: Lozaphilippines. Image may be subject to copyright.

AFTER: If Mt Mayon edifice collapses into the magma chamber, the after image may look like the above. [The snow cover is less likely right now.] Photo shows Aniakchak Caldera in the Aleutian Range, Alaska. This 10 km diameter caldera formed about 3,450 years ago. Many smaller cinder cones have formed within the caldera. Credit: USGS

Mayon UPDATE:

As Mayon Volcano continued to eject 500-m plumes of ash into air, spewing lava down its slopes for a third day, and burning rocks, mud and everything else in its path, PHIVOLCS vulcanologists said they expected a major explosive eruption soon.

Up to 50,000 people have been or are about to be evacuated from Mayon’s danger zones and neighboring areas, Philippines Defense Secretary said in a news conference.

Many villagers are reluctant to live because its seasonal harvest time for their crops. They are staying put despite th eregional government threat of martial law.

PHIVOLCS, whose computer network is off the internet when there’s a crisis, as is the case right now,  was reported ass saying it had recorded at least five minor explosions at the volcano on Wednesday, and 80 “high frequency quakes” in the last 24 hours.

For previous updates see:

• Mayon Lava in Interesting Times!
• Mayon Volcano Oozes Lava
• Strong Earthquake Strikes Mindanao, Philippines
• VolcanoWatch Weekly [11 Nov 2009]
• Latest From TAAL and other Philippines Volcanoes
• Mount Mayon neighbors on evacuation alert
• Mayon Volcano Ejects Ash

Related Links:

• FEWW Volcano Links
• Volcanoes
• FEWW Earthquake Links