JPTRMT1
This is an amendment to an earlier release dated April 8, 2011
Japan Earthquake Forecast
FIRE-EARTH estimates that about 80 exajoules (EJ) of tectonic stress energy could be accumulated in Japan Region between now and early 2016.
Most of the energy is forecast to be released as large earthquakes including a massive shock, a Megathrust earthquake, the largest on record, measuring 10.0+Mw releasing about 64EJ of energy.
[NOTE: The 1960 Valdivia earthquake (The Great Chilean Earthquake) is the largest ever earthquake recorded measuring 9.5Mw. The quake struck on May 22, 1960 at 38.29ºS, 73.0ºW. Seismic moment release: ~ 11.3 EJ]
Japan Trench Mega Thrust Earthquake No. 1 (JPTRMT1) could break up the Honshu island into some half dozen fragments and scores of smaller splinters. [An impression depicting the new geography of the islands may be posted later.]
The Megashock could trigger a colossal tsunami completely submerging coastal areas around the Pacific Ocean, and traveling many miles inland.
JPTRMT1 could trigger multiple volcanic eruptions throughout Japan Region and rest of the western half of the PRF, as far away as in Alaska, the Philippines, Indonesia, PNG, Fiji, Tonga, New Zealand and rest of the South Pacific region. [Groups J, H, K and L on the map below.
The 10.0+Mw Megashock, its massive aftershocks, the spawned mountainous tsunamis and the multiple volcanic eruptions would cause death and destruction on unprecedented scales throughout the Pacific Rim countries and beyond.
The impact of the volcanic eruptions would affect the entire world, resulting in severe climatic episodes, major losses of crops, famine and exacerbate mass dieoffs, which may have already started as a result of drought and deluge and other collapse mechanisms.
Map of Volcanoes. Background Map: University of Michigan. Designed and enhanced by Fire Earth Blog. Click image to enlarge.
Forecast Details
- Name Assigned by FIRE-EARTH: Japan Trench Mega Thrust Earthquake No. 1 (JPTRMT1)
- Location: Near the East Coast of Honshu, Japan
- Depth: ~ 26km
- Magnitude: 10.0+Mw
- Energy released: ~ 64EJ
- Largest Aftershocks: ~ 9.0 Mw
- JPTRMT1 and its Massive aftershocks would trigger dozens of colossal super tsunamis.
- The unprecedented super seismic episode could trigger between 40 and 80 volcanoes to erupt simultaneously, shortly after the mainshock strikes.
- Millions of people could perish within the first few hours, and hundreds of millions more left without clean water, food, or shelter, as a result of the events.
Alaska Update [15:00UTC]
FIRE-EARTH Model shows continued buildup of tectonic stress energy near the coast of Alaska.
See: Alaska Earthquake Forecast: Update 3
Last updated: 11:24 UTC April 19, 2010
Global Disasters
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