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Archive for the ‘Papua New Guinea’ Category

El Niño Update [20 Oct 2009]

Posted by feww on October 22, 2009

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  19  October 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

  • Niño 4   ~ 1.2ºC
  • Niño 3.4  ~ 0.9ºC
  • Niño 3 ~ 0.7ºC
  • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.0ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 140°W and in small areas in the eastern Pacific.

Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
for the Last Four Weeks•During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central Pacific Ocean.•During the last month, equatorial SST anomalies decreased over parts of the eastern Pacific and increased over the central Pacific.

trop OLr and wind anom -sml

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
During mid August through September, an anomalous trough was prevalent in the North Pacific Ocean/Gulf of Alaska. During September, an anomalous ridge was present downstream, focused over Canada and the northern United States. The pattern also featured a weak trough over the central U.S., which contributed to below-average temperatures in the region, while the northern U.S. and Canada remained warmer-than-average. Recently, an anomalous ridge has developed in the Gulf of Alaska with a downstream trough contributing to below-average temperatures across much of the U.S. and Canada.

Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

  • Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
  • The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to greater than +2.0°C), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10. Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 15 Oct 2009).

SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 18 October 2009
The CFS ensemble mean predicts El Niño will last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.


  • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
  • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.

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El Niño Updates:

Posted in australia, Climate Prediction, El Niño weekly report, equatorial Pacific Ocean, Global SST anomalies, Indonesia, Malaysia, Oceanic Kelvin waves, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, western tropical pacific ocean | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

VolcanoWatch Weekly [25 June 2009]

Posted by feww on June 25, 2009

Volcanic Activity Report:  17 June – 23 June 2009

Source: Global Volcanism program (GVP) – SI/USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report

New activity/unrest:


The eruption from Sarychev Peak that began on 11 June continued through the 19th. Another explosive eruption on 15 June was followed by a plume that extended 360 km NW. Ash clouds from earlier explosions reached 13.7 km (45,000 feet) altitude. Ash emissions continued during 17-18 June.

During 21 June ash plumes from Rinjani rose to an altitude of 3 km (10,000 ft) and drifted 55 km N. (Source: GVP)

Volcano of the Week: Rabaul Caldera

Rabaul caldera, named after the town of Rabaul (town is built inside the caldera), is a large volcano in East New Britain, Papua New Guinea. Its Tavurvur  and Vulcan cones erupted in 1994, devastating Rabaul and killing about a dozen people. It’s 1937 eruption killed more than 500 people.

Country: Papua New Guinea
Geographical region: New Britain
Volcano Type: Pyroclastic shield
Last Known Eruption: 2009 (continuing)
Summit Elevation: 688 m  (2,257 feet)
Latitude: 4.271°S  (4°16’15″S)
Longitude: 152.203°E  (152°12’10″E)
Source: Global Volcanism Program (GVP)

Tavurvur volcano – part of Rabaul Caldera –– Papua New Guinea. Image Credit and Licensing details.

Rabaul Volcano on the northeastern end of New Britain captured by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite on April 3, 2009 releasing plumes of volcanic ash and steam. NASA image courtesy MODIS Rapid (!) Response Team, Goddard Space Flight Center.

The low-lying Rabaul caldera on the tip of the Gazelle Peninsula at the NE end of New Britain forms a broad sheltered harbor utilized by what was the island’s largest city prior to a major eruption in 1994. The outer flanks of the 688-m-high asymmetrical pyroclastic shield volcano are formed by thick pyroclastic-flow deposits. The 8 x 14 km caldera is widely breached on the east, where its floor is flooded by Blanche Bay and was formed about 1400 years ago. An earlier caldera-forming eruption about 7100 years ago is now considered to have originated from Tavui caldera, offshore to the north. Three small stratovolcanoes lie outside the northern and NE caldera rims of Rabaul. Post-caldera eruptions built basaltic-to-dacitic pyroclastic cones on the caldera floor near the NE and western caldera walls. Several of these, including Vulcan cone, which was formed during a large eruption in 1878, have produced major explosive activity during historical time. A powerful explosive eruption in 1994 occurred simultaneously from Vulcan and Tavurvur volcanoes and forced the temporary abandonment of Rabaul city. Photo by Wally Johnson, 1969 (Australia Bureau of Mineral Resources). Caption: GVP).

FEWW expects ongoing activity, punctuated by explosive eruptions by the volcano, for the rest of 2009 and possibly most of 2010.

Ongoing Activity:

Latest U.S. Volcano Alerts and Updates for Wednesday, Jun 24, 2009 at 18:14:32 PDT

  • Redoubt Activity – Color Code ORANGE : Alert Level WATCH

  • Kilauea Activity  –  Color Code ORANGE : Alert Level WATCH

  • Veniaminof Activity – Color Code GREEN : Alert Level NORMAL

  • Mauna Loa Activity – Color Code YELLOW : Alert Level ADVISORY

Redoubt Volcano Latest Observations: Local time: June 24, 2009 1705 AKDT (June 25, 2009 0105 UTC)
The eruption of Redoubt continues. Seismic activity remains low but above background levels.

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Posted in Papua New Guinea, Tavurvur, volcanism, volcanoes, Vulcan | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »