Tropical Storm ‘Bebeng’ Targets Philippines

Heavy Rains, Floodings and Mudslides Expected as TS Three (‘Bebeng’) Targets Luzon and Visayas in the Philippines 

2011/2012 Could Prove the Worst Year Ever for the Philippines: FIRE-EARTH 

Based on FIRE-EARTH models, the Moderators believe extreme weather and tectonics events in  the 2011-2012 period could cause large scale devastation in the Philippines islands.

Tropical Cyclone 3 has become become considerably more organized since 3 hours earlier (below image).

Click images to enlarge. Vis/IR satellite image. Source: CIMSS

Latest Details at 10:00 am local time (Source: Dost Pagasa)
Position: 12.7°N, 126.4°E
Location:  180 km East Catarman, Northern Samar
Maximum wind speeds: 55 km/h near the center
Movement: Tracking NW at 13 km/h

Global Disasters

• 2011 Much More Disastrous
• 2010 Disasters [Includes Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• 2011 Disaster Calendar

Updated at 06:03UTC on May 7, 2011

M5.9 Quake Strikes Northern Luzon, Philippines

Earthquake measuring 5.9Mw strikes northern Luzon 425 km north of Manila

The quake was centered near 18.454°N, 120.856°E and occurred on Monday, March 22, 2010 at 19:58:14 UTC , and a depth of 30km.

NO tsunami warning was issued and as of posting there were no reports of casualties or damage.

The epicenter was located about 130km north of the dacitic Ambalatungan Group of volcanoes and 130km west (282 degrees) of  the historic Cagua volcano.

Earthquake Location Map. © Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum – GFZ

Summary of Earthquake Details (USGS)

• Magnitude: 5.9
• Date-Time:
  • Monday, March 22, 2010 at 19:58:14 UTC
  • Tuesday, March 23, 2010 at 03:58:14 AM at epicenter
• Location: 18.454°N, 120.856°E
• Depth: 42.6 km (26.5 miles)
• Region: NORTHERN LUZON, PHILIPPINES
• Distances
  • 35 km (25 miles) NE of Laoag, Luzon, Philippines
  • 185 km (115 miles) NW of Ilagan, Luzon, Philippines
  • 425 km (265 miles) N of MANILA, Philippines
  • 735 km (460 miles) S of T’AI-PEI, Taiwan
• Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 7.2 km (4.5 miles); depth +/- 9.6 km (6.0 miles)
• USGS: NEIC (WDCS-D)
• Event ID: us2010udbw

The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology estimated the magnitude at 5.7Mw.

Recent Earthquakes

USGS Last Earthquake in the Philippines
PHIVOLC’s Latest Earthquake Information

Tectonic Information

• Tectonics and Volcanoes of the Philippines

Related Links:

• Strong Earthquake Strikes Mindanao, Philippines
• Latest From TAAL and other Philippines Volcanoes
• Philippines Taal Volcano Could Erupt Anytime!

• Major Earthquakes Increase 47 % in 3 Decades

• Volcanoes
• FEWW Volcano Links
• Earthquakes [Main Index page]

Mirinae: Philippines Phlooded

Tropical Storm MIRINAE – UPDATE 02 November 2009 at 15:UTC

On 02 November 2009 at 15:00 UTC Tropical Storm MIRINAE was located near 12.5N, 108.0E, or approximately 290 km northeast of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. The strom has been tracking westward (260 degrees) at a forward speed of about 22km/h during the past six hours, having made landfall shortly after 06:00 UTC. “The Low level circulation center (LLCC) is expected to dissolve over land within the next 12 hours. Remnant vorticity may track towards the Gulf of Thailand,” JTWC said, but the LLCC is not expected to redevelop.

• Maximum Sustained Winds:  85 km/h
  
• Maximum Wind Gusts:  102 km/h

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Image of the Day:

Philippines After Mirinae

Philippines Govt sent naval boats to Santa Cruz where roads were heavily flooded. Even after the floodwater receded after rain had eased, it was still reported as “chest-high” in some areas. Photo: AP. Image may be subject to copyright.

Initial Impact of Mirinae on the Philippines

• Mirinae was the fourth storm in a month to pummel the Philippines.

• It made landfall on the eastern coastal province of Quezon, buffeting the area with winds of 150 km/h and gusts of up to 190 km/h.

• The typhoon struck Quezon about 24:00 UTC, Friday, moving west, south of Manila as it weakened overland into a tropical storm Saturday afternoon, and headed in the direction of Vietnam.

• Heavy rain and strong winds caused more damage to the already storm stricken areas in the region.

• Typhoon Mirinae took a similar path to storm Ketsana, whose heavy rains inundated Manila in September causing the worst floods in living memory.

• The worst storm-related floods in living memory have left hundreds dead , with up to a quarter of a million homeless.

• Up to 20 people have been killed or were reported as missing, including 7 confirmed  deaths, as of posting. A man was drowned and his small baby washed away in Pililla township in Rizal province, east of Manila, as they tried to cross an overflowing creek, reports said.

• Six more people were killed in Laguna province, south of the capital, and up to a dozen people are reported missing.

• In the town of Santa Cruz the roads were flooded, residents waded through a chest high mix of muddy floodwater and sewage after Mirinae dumped heavy rains in the area. govt sent in naval boats to help with rescue operation.

• “The waters were really high. It was like a flashflood. It was waist deep in our area but in other areas it went as high as the rooftops,” a local official was quoted as saying.

• Up to 120,000 people were evacuated in areas south of Manila. Residents in other areas were told to prepare essential supplies for 3 days, and stay put.

• Some 180 flights were canceled, dozens of ferries grounded, many schools closed.

• Areas south of the capital were worst hit by heavy rain and strong winds, which caused significant damage.

Philippines  Cyclones Since August 2009

• 30 Oct: Typhoon Mirinae Struck Quezon, leaving up to 20 dead or missing.
• 3 Oct: Typhoon Parma’s triggered floods and landslides killing more than 200.
• 26 Sept: Tropical Storm Ketsana dumped more water on Manila and neighboring provinces than ever recorded, killing up to 400, and leaving a quarter of a million people homeless.
• 7 Aug: Typhoon Morakot swept northern Luzon, killing more than 10 people.

Related Links:

• TS MIRINAE – UPDATE 31 October 2009
• MIRINAE: Another Cyclone Heading Philippines Way
• Typhoon MIRINAE “In-Touch” with LUPIT

Typhoon MIRINAE “In-Touch” with LUPIT

Typhoon MIRINAE – Update on 31 Oct 2009 – Time: 03:00UTC

TS MIRINAE – UPDATE 31 October 2009

Typhoon MIRINAE – Update on 30 Oct 2009 – Time: 15:00UTC

• Position: 14.5N 122.7E
• Location: 240 km (130 nm) east of Manila, Philippines
• Maximum  Sustained Winds: 158 km/h (85 kt)
• Maximum Wind Gusts : 195 km/h (105 kt)
• Movement and speed: Tracking  west-southwest [255º] at 24 km/h (13 kt) – has slowed down
  
• Maximum Significant Wave Height: 9 m (27 feet)

Mirinae has slightly weakened, but still maintains a robust radial outflow. It’s expected to make landfall in Quezon province by 18:00UTC, and reemerge in the South China Sea, further weakened, about11 hours after landfall.

Mirinae [Santi] Track by the Philippines DOST PAGASA. Click image to enlarge and update.

Typhoon Mirinae [SANTI] MTSAT IR1. Still Image. Click image to enlarge and update.

Areas Under Highest Storm Warning Signal

Signal No.3  (100-185 kph winds)

• Quezon
• Polillo island
• Bulacan
• Bataan
• Rizal
• Cavite
• Laguna
• Batangas
• Oriental Mindoro
• Lubang Island
• Marinduque
• Camarines Norte
• Camarines Sur
• Catanduanes
• Metro Manila

Signal No. 2  (60-100 kph winds)

• Aurora
• Quirino
• Nueva Ecija
• Tarlac
• Pampanga
• Zambales
• Occidental Mindoro
• Albay
• Burias Island

Typhoon MIRINAE – Update on 30 Oct 2009 – Time: 03:00UTC

MIRINAE – MTSAT IR Still Image. Click Image to Enlarge and Update !

The Eye of the typhoon should make land fall on Luzon at or about 18:00 UTC today [Oct 30, 2009]

• Position: 15.0N 125.2E
• Location: 510 km (275 nm) east of Manila, Philippines
• Maximum  Sustained Winds: 167 km/h (90 kt)
• Maximum Wind Gusts : 204 km/h (110 kt)
• Movement and speed: Tracking west at 31 km/h (17 kt) – fast moving
  
• Maximum Significant Wave Height: 10 m (30 feet)

• Wind Flux: 8.1000E+02
• Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 5.7550E+04
• Power Dissipation Index: 4.2202E+06

Typhoon MIRINAE 5-Day Projected Track. Source: JTWC.  Click image to enlarge.

Typhoon MIRINAE 3-Day Projected Track. Source: JMA. Image may be subject to copyright. Click image to enlarge.

Typhoon MIRINAE [Typhoon SANTI in the Philippines] track by Dost PAGASA, Philippines. Click image to enlarge.

Click image to animate.

Animation: Best Track

• MPEG-2 (0.63 MB)
• WMV (0.66 MB)

Satellite Imagery (Constant Illumination)

• MPEG-1 (0.84 MB)
• MPEG-2 (2.25 MB)
• WMV (1.96 MB)

More links are posted throughout this page.

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Typhoon MIRINAE – Update 29 Oct 2009

MIRINAE  “fine-tuned” by LUPIT

Typhoon Mirinae  in “direct contact” with the remnants of LUPIT

Background: MIRINAE: Another Cyclone Heading Philippines Way

Typhoon MIRINAE Status UPDATE
On 29 October 14:45 UTC Typhoon Mirinae  was located at near 15.6N,  128.7E, approximately 890 km (480 nm) east of Manila, Philippines, tracking westward at a forward speed of about 22 km/h (12 knots).  It’s maximum significant wave height was estimated at 11 meter (33 feet).

• Maximum  Sustained Winds: 167 km/h (90 knots)
• Maximum Wind Gusts :   204 km/h (110 knots)

Typhoon MIRINAE Status
On 29 October 03:45 UTC Typhoon Mirinae  was located at 15.8N, 131.4E, about 1200km (650nm) east of Manila, Philippines, tracking westward at a forward speed of 27 km/h (15knots). It’s maximum significant wave height was estimated at 10 meter (30 feet).

Typhoon Mirinae – MTSAT IR – Still Image recorded on October 29, 2009 at 00:30 UTC. Note the poleward arm linked to the remnants of LUPIT circling to the east of Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia. Click image to enlarge and update. Source: Digital Typhoon.

The poleward arm of Typhoon MIRINAE stretches out like an umbilical cord to meet the remnants of LUPIT circling to the east of Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia. It seems like the task LUPIT failed to perform is now passed on to MIRINAE. Will she succeed wreaking more havoc on the fatally injured  Manila, Luzon and the Philippines? Will she be the “mercy” typhoon?

Click image to animate.

Basic Information

DOB:   2009-10-27 06:00:00 UTC
AGE:   45 hours / 1.55  days
Minimum Pressure:   955 hPa
Maximum Wind Speed:  150 km/h ( 80 knots)
Maximum Wind Gusts: 215km/h (115 knots)
Max Radius of Storm Wind:  260 km /140 nm [highly symmetrical]
Diameter of Storm Wind:  260 km /140 (nm)
Radius of Gale Wind:  410 km / 220 (nm)
Diameter of Gale Wind:  670 km /360 (nm)
Distance traveled:  1,355 km
Average Speed: 30.1 km/h / 783  km/day
Range of Movement: Latitude 1.4, Longitude 12.3
Wind Flux: 5.1000E+02
Accumulated Cyclone Energy:  3.5050E+04
Power Dissipation Index:  2.5328E+06
Typhoon Name:  Mirinae means “Milky way” in South Korean

Source: Digital Typhoon / edited by FEWW

TY MIRINAE 5-day track forecast. Source: JTWC

Best Track:

• MPEG-2 (0.14 MB)
• WMV (0.18 MB)

Satellite Imagery – animated(Constant Illumination)

• MPEG-1 (0.60 MB)
• MPEG-2 (1.58 MB)
• WMV (1.37 MB)

Satellite Imagery- animated  (Sun Illumination)

• MPEG-1 (0.35 MB)
• MPEG-2 (0.98 MB)
• WMV (0.84 MB)

Previous entries:

• MIRINAE: Another Cyclone Heading Philippines Way

Source Page: FEWW Satellite Imagery

MTSAT/ NOAA

• Tropical West Pacific – Water Vapor
• Tropical West Pacific – Visible
• Tropical West Pacific – Infrared
• Tropical West Pacific – Enhanced IR

• West Pacific/South China Sea – Water Vapor
• West Pacific/South China Sea – Visible
• West Pacific/South China Sea – Infrared
• West Pacific/South China Sea-  Enhanced IR

Loops/Animations (MTSAT/NOAA/SSD)

• West Pacific – Infrared
• West Pacific – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)
• West Pacific – Water Vapor
• West Pacific – Visible
• West Pacific – Visible (Colorized)
• West Pacific/South China Sea – Infrared
• West Pacific/South China Sea – Enhanced IR
• West Pacific/South China Sea – Water Vapor
• Tropical West Pacific – Infrared
• Tropical West Pacific – Enhanced IR
• Tropical West Pacific – Water Vapor
• Tropical West Pacific – Visible

• West Central Pacific – Water Vapor
• West Central Pacific – Visible
• West Central Pacific – Visible (Colorized)
• West Central Pacific – Infrared
• West Central Pacific IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

Related Links:

• Manila Flooding Could Trigger Quakes

• Philippines: Worst Floods in Living Memory
• Philippines Worst Ever Flood Casualties Climb a Notch
• How Much Can a Single Natural Event Affect You?
• Floods leave 2.5% of Colombia’s population homeless
• Earth’s Human Induced Antiphase Nears Completion
  

• Remember this Image!

• Carbon Footprint of Your Dollar
• World Problems: The Root Cause Matrix
• First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Giga Trends
• World CO2 Emissions

• Wall Street Cognitive Dissonance
• Failing Ecosystems
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs

Previous Storms:

• Photo of LUPIT Near Northern Luzon

• UPDATE: Typhoon LUPIT Arrives
• Typhoon LUPIT: Cruel, Harsh, or Wicked?
• Super Typhoon LUPIT: The Sauntering Storm
• Typhoon LUPIT Update – 17 Oct 2009
• LUPIT: The Mercy Storm?

• Parma Hampers Recovery Efforts in Vietnam
• Philippines Still Flooded
• Philippines Terminally Impacted?

• Images of the Day: Super Typhoon Melor
• Could Typhoon Melor Drag Parma Back to Philippines?
• When Will Global Food Shortages Begin Biting

• “Twin-engine” hurricanes, “Supercharged” Typhoons
• Super Typhoon Parma May Churn Manila to Vanila
• Philippines Extreme Rain from TS Ketsana

• Manila Flooding Could Trigger Quakes
• Philippines: Worst Floods in Living Memory
• Philippines Worst Ever Flood Casualties Climb a Notch

• Earth undergoing significant geophysical disturbances
• Typhoon Melor Leaves a Trail of Destruction in Japan
• Typhoon Melor Arriving in Japan, Leaving Lasting Impression

El Niño Update [20 Oct 2009]

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  19  October 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

• Niño 4   ~ 1.2ºC
• Niño 3.4  ~ 0.9ºC
• Niño 3 ~ 0.7ºC
• Niño 1+2 ~ 0.0ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 140°W and in small areas in the eastern Pacific.

Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
for the Last Four Weeks•During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central Pacific Ocean.•During the last month, equatorial SST anomalies decreased over parts of the eastern Pacific and increased over the central Pacific.

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
During mid August through September, an anomalous trough was prevalent in the North Pacific Ocean/Gulf of Alaska. During September, an anomalous ridge was present downstream, focused over Canada and the northern United States. The pattern also featured a weak trough over the central U.S., which contributed to below-average temperatures in the region, while the northern U.S. and Canada remained warmer-than-average. Recently, an anomalous ridge has developed in the Gulf of Alaska with a downstream trough contributing to below-average temperatures across much of the U.S. and Canada.

Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

• Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

• The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to greater than +2.0°C), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10. Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 15 Oct 2009).

SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 18 October 2009
The CFS ensemble mean predicts El Niño will last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Summary

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.

Related Links:

• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams
• El Niño Forecasts

El Niño Updates:

• El Niño [Main Page and Archive]

Typhoon LUPIT: Cruel, Harsh, or Wicked?

Typhoon LUPIT – 21 Oct 2009

• How long will LUPIT loiter around Luzon

• How much more rain will it dump?

• Will LUPIT move away and come back, AGAIN!
  

At 00:00 UTC – Oct 21, 2009
Max Winds:   160km/h (85 knots)  Category: 2
Max Gusts:  195 km/h (105knots)
Coordinates: 20.5ºN 128.9ºE
Movement past six hours: 280 degrees at 15 km/h (08 kts)
Location: About 925 km (500 kts) NE of Manila Philippines

Summary of Storm Activity

Lupit is tracking westward steered by a subtropical ridge extension to the north. Deep convection has become more organized near the storm center over the past six hours, JTWC reported.

Typhoon LUPIT – MTSAT Still image.

LUPIT Track by UniSys Weather.  Click image to enlarge and update.

History Color Code – The chart color codes intensity (category based on Saffir-Simpson scale)

NOTE: Pressures are in millibars and winds are in knots where one knot is equal to 1.15 mph. Source: UniSys Weather

LUPIT 5-day track. Source JTWC. Click image to enlarge.

Typhoon LUPIT – 20 Oct 2009

Typhoon LUPIT (22W): JTWC/SATOP multispectral satellite image. October 20, 2009 at 05:00 UTC. Click image to enlarge.

Typhoon LUPIT – 20 October 2009, at 09:00UTC

Position: 20.4ºN, 129.3ºE
Location: Approximately 1,110 km (600 NM) northeast of Manila, Philippines.
Movement:  WNW at about 15km/h (8 knots)
Center: LUPIT’s Eye has once again become visible
System Characteristics: LUPIT has good radial out flow
Maximum significant wave height:  ~ 11 meters (34 feet)
Max sustained winds: 175km/h (95 knots)
Max gusts: 215 km/h (115 knots)

Super Typhoon Lupit. Date/Time as inset. Click on image to animate.

MTSAT IR Image. Updated at 30 mins intervals. Click image to enlarge.

Background and More images:

• Typhoon LUPIT: Cruel, Harsh, or Wicked?
• Typhoon LUPIT Update – 17 Oct 2009
• LUPIT: The Mercy Storm?

LUPIT 3-day projected track. Image: JMA. Image may be subject to copyright. Click image to enlarge!

• LUPIT 3-day projected track.

Satellite Loops/Animation/Images

• Tropical West Pacific – Infrared
• Tropical West Pacific – Enhanced IR
• Tropical West Pacific – Water Vapor
• Tropical West Pacific – Visible

• Northwest Pacific – Water Vapor
• Northwest Pacific – Visible
• Northwest Pacific – Visible (Colorized)
• Northwest Pacific – Infrared
• Northwest Pacific – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

• West Pacific – Water Vapor
• West Pacific – Visible
• West Pacific – Visible (Colorized)
• West Pacific – Infrared
• West Pacific – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

Other Satellite Images:

• FEWW Satellite Imagery

Related Links:

• Super Typhoon LUPIT: The Sauntering Storm
• Typhoon LUPIT Update – 17 Oct 2009
• LUPIT: The Mercy Storm?

• Parma Hampers Recovery Efforts in Vietnam
• Philippines Still Flooded
• Philippines Terminally Impacted?

• Images of the Day: Super Typhoon Melor
• Could Typhoon Melor Drag Parma Back to Philippines?
• When Will Global Food Shortages Begin Biting

• “Twin-engine” hurricanes, “Supercharged” Typhoons
• Super Typhoon Parma May Churn Manila to Vanila
• Philippines Extreme Rain from TS Ketsana

• Manila Flooding Could Trigger Quakes
• Philippines: Worst Floods in Living Memory
• Philippines Worst Ever Flood Casualties Climb a Notch

• Earth undergoing significant geophysical disturbances
• Typhoon Melor Leaves a Trail of Destruction in Japan
• Typhoon Melor Arriving in Japan, Leaving Lasting Impression

Super Typhoon LUPIT: The Sauntering Storm

Listening to the Planet’s Pulse

Weather models provide useful information, but they can’t project the larger picture

Storms and other natural phenomena serve to rejuvenate and ensure streams of life flow unimpeded. If you find their impact devastating, it’s because you are looking at the wrong roadmap.

Super Typhoon Lupit. Date/Time as inset. Click on image to animate.

MTSAT IR Image. Updated at 30 mins intervals. Click image to enlarge.

Background and More images:

• Typhoon LUPIT Update – 17 Oct 2009
• LUPIT: The Mercy Storm?

Summary of Lupit Latest Data  (October 19 at (03:00 UTC)

• Intensity: Super Typhoon (Very Strong)
• Center position:  18.7° N, E 133.8°E
• Direction and speed: N (340 degrees) at 9km/h (5kt)
• Central pressure: 930hPa
• Maximum sustained winds:  250 km/h, or70m/s (135kt)
• Max. wind gusts:  307km/h (165kt)
• Area of 50kt or greater winds:   200km wide (110NM)
• Area of 30kt or greater winds:   440km wide (240NM)
• Source(s): JMA; JTWC
• Significant wave height: 11 m (32 feet)

Super Typhoon LUPIT (22W) is currently located about 1455 km (785 nm) ENE of Manila, Philippines, having moved north-northwestward at a forward speed of about 9 km/h (05 knots) during the previous six hours. LUPIT is turning back towards the west because a mid-latitude trough has left the region and the subtropical ridge is beginning to build in. LUPIT may be unable to retain super typhoon intensity and could slightly weaken before moving closer to  northern Luzon, JTWC reported.

LUPIT 3-day projected track. Image: JMA. Image may be subject to copyright. Click image to enlarge!

Super Typhoon LUPIT Projected Track. Solid centers represent wind forces stronger than 117km/h. Source: JTWC. Click image to enlarge!

Satellite Loops/Animation/Images

• Tropical West Pacific – Infrared
• Tropical West Pacific – Enhanced IR
• Tropical West Pacific – Water Vapor
• Tropical West Pacific – Visible

• Northwest Pacific – Water Vapor
• Northwest Pacific – Visible
• Northwest Pacific – Visible (Colorized)
• Northwest Pacific – Infrared
• Northwest Pacific – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

• West Pacific – Water Vapor
• West Pacific – Visible
• West Pacific – Visible (Colorized)
• West Pacific – Infrared
• West Pacific – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

Other Satellite Images:

• FEWW Satellite Imagery

Related Links:

• Typhoon LUPIT Update – 17 Oct 2009
• LUPIT: The Mercy Storm?

Typhoon LUPIT Update – 17 Oct 2009

LUPIT has intensified to typhoon strength moving toward central and northern Luzon, Philippines

Previous Entry:

• LUPIT: The Mercy Storm?

Typhoon Data Summary

At 2:00 AM local time, Saturday October 17, typhoon LUPIT [locally known as “RAMIL”] was located about 850 km east of VIRAC, CATANDUANES (14.6°N; 133.2°E) with maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h and gusts of up to 150 km/h moving WNW at about 20/km/h, Philippines PAGASA reported.

FEWW Forecast:

Moderators believe LUPIT has the potential of becoming the most destructive typhoon yet to strike Philippines in 2009.

FEWW Previous Forecast

• LUPIT: The Mercy Storm?

MTSAT IR Image. Updated at 30 mins intervals. Click image to enlarge.

Satellite Loops/Animation/Images

• Tropical West Pacific – Infrared
• Tropical West Pacific – Enhanced IR
• Tropical West Pacific – Water Vapor
• Tropical West Pacific – Visible

• Northwest Pacific – Water Vapor
• Northwest Pacific – Visible
• Northwest Pacific – Visible (Colorized)
• Northwest Pacific – Infrared
• Northwest Pacific – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

• West Pacific – Water Vapor
• West Pacific – Visible
• West Pacific – Visible (Colorized)
• West Pacific – Infrared
• West Pacific – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

Other Satellite Images:

• FEWW Satellite Imagery

MTSAT – RGB Still Image. Time/Date as inset. Click image to  enlarge and update.

MTSAT – AVN Enhancement – Still Image. Time/Date as inset. Click image to  enlarge and update.

Cyclone LUPIT Projected track. Solid centers represent wind forces stronger than 117km/h. Source: JTWC.

Related Links:

• LUPIT: The Mercy Storm?

• Parma Hampers Recovery Efforts in Vietnam
• Philippines Still Flooded
• Philippines Terminally Impacted?

• Images of the Day: Super Typhoon Melor
• Could Typhoon Melor Drag Parma Back to Philippines?
• When Will Global Food Shortages Begin Biting

• “Twin-engine” hurricanes, “Supercharged” Typhoons
• Super Typhoon Parma May Churn Manila to Vanila
• Philippines Extreme Rain from TS Ketsana

• Manila Flooding Could Trigger Quakes
• Philippines: Worst Floods in Living Memory
• Philippines Worst Ever Flood Casualties Climb a Notch

• Earth undergoing significant geophysical disturbances
• Typhoon Melor Leaves a Trail of Destruction in Japan
• Typhoon Melor Arriving in Japan, Leaving Lasting Impression

LUPIT: The Mercy Storm?

FEWW Forecast appears at bottom of page!

LUPIT Races West Toward Philippines and Taiwan

Would Lupit avoid Luzon, or will it be the storm that drove the island closer to edge of collapse?

Just weeks after storm Ketsana left its deadly legacy, and days after Typhoon Parma worsened the misery, storm Lupit, forecast to be a typhoon, is racing west towards the islands of Luzon and Taiwan.

At 21:00UTC on October 15, tropical storm  LUPIT (22w)  was located  near 12.8N, 137.9E or about 315 km north of Yap moving west along the southern periphery of the Subtropical Ridge (STR) at about 33km/h.

Storm Lupit races west. MTSAT – Visible Image – Still Frame. Click image to enhance and update.

LUPITis expected to intensify steadily as it continues through the Philippine Sea because the environment is forecast to remain favorable, “characterized by minimal vertical wind shear, good radial outflow and high ocean heat content,” JTWC reported.

It is forecast to move West Northwest at reduced speeds of about 26 kph. Intertropical Convergence Zone (itcz) will affect Southern Luzon and Visayas, PAGASA reported.

Lupit expected to generate maximum significant wave height of 5 meters.

How much would storm Lupit affect Luzon, Philippines? MTSAT – IR CH1 – Still Frame. Click image to enhance and update.

Cyclone LUPIT Projected track. Solid centers represent wind forces stronger than 117km/h. Source: JTWC.

FEWW Forecast: Moderators believe if Cyclone LUPIT were to merge with [feed on] the “storm placenta” to its south (encircled on the image), it could probably

1. Reorganize, strengthening  into a super typhoon.
2. Alter its projected course, moving toward a westerly direction and targeting southern Luzon.

Satellite Loops/Animation

• Tropical West Pacific – Infrared
• Tropical West Pacific – Enhanced IR
• Tropical West Pacific – Water Vapor
• Tropical West Pacific – Visible

• Northwest Pacific – Water Vapor
• Northwest Pacific – Visible
• Northwest Pacific – Visible (Colorized)
• Northwest Pacific – Infrared
• Northwest Pacific – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

• West Pacific – Water Vapor
• West Pacific – Visible
• West Pacific – Visible (Colorized)
• West Pacific – Infrared
• West Pacific – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

Other Satellite Images:

• FEWW Satellite Imagery

Related Links:

• Parma Hampers Recovery Efforts in Vietnam
• Philippines Still Flooded
• Philippines Terminally Impacted?

• Images of the Day: Super Typhoon Melor
• Could Typhoon Melor Drag Parma Back to Philippines?
• When Will Global Food Shortages Begin Biting

• “Twin-engine” hurricanes, “Supercharged” Typhoons
• Super Typhoon Parma May Churn Manila to Vanila
• Philippines Extreme Rain from TS Ketsana

• Manila Flooding Could Trigger Quakes
• Philippines: Worst Floods in Living Memory
• Philippines Worst Ever Flood Casualties Climb a Notch

• Earth undergoing significant geophysical disturbances
• Typhoon Melor Leaves a Trail of Destruction in Japan
• Typhoon Melor Arriving in Japan, Leaving Lasting Impression

Philippines Still Flooded

Image of the Day:
‘Pepeng’ [Parma] may have gone; Floods, risk of landslides remain strong

More than a week after Parma first hit N Luzon, the roads  in central Dagupan city, northern Philippines remain flooded.

Residents wade through a flooded road brought on rains by typhoon Parma in central Dagupan city in northern Philippines October 10, 2009. REUTERS/Erik de Castro. Image may be subject to copyright.

“The most important thing is to open roads so we can send relief goods because we cannot hope to find alternate routes,” said Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro .

“As of now, food and relief materials can only be delivered by helicopters because it will take 2-5 days to clear up roads and bridges washed out by floods and landslides,” said Lieutenant-Colonel Ernesto Torres, of the national disaster agency.

About 500,000 tons of ready to harvest rice and other crops have been destroyed by the two storms, Ketsana and Parma, the equivalent of about 7 percent of 2009 fourth quarter forecast harvest of 6.5 million tons, said Jesus Emmanuel Paras, Agriculture undersecretary.

Various sources have estimated the cost of damage to crops and infrastructure at up to $500million.

Related Links:

• Philippines Terminally Impacted?

• Images of the Day: Super Typhoon Melor
• Could Typhoon Melor Drag Parma Back to Philippines?
• When Will Global Food Shortages Begin Biting

• “Twin-engine” hurricanes, “Supercharged” Typhoons
• Super Typhoon Parma May Churn Manila to Vanila
• Philippines Extreme Rain from TS Ketsana

• Manila Flooding Could Trigger Quakes
• Philippines: Worst Floods in Living Memory
• Philippines Worst Ever Flood Casualties Climb a Notch

• Earth undergoing significant geophysical disturbances
• Typhoon Melor Leaves a Trail of Destruction in Japan
• Typhoon Melor Arriving in Japan, Leaving Lasting Impression

Philippines Terminally Impacted?

Our thanks to EDRO Moderators for their input and direction

Ketsana, Parma and Melor: Harbingers of Bad Times Ahead?

Did the Three Storms Spell the Beginning of the End for the Philippines as We Know it?

On September 26, 2009 FEWW called the floods caused by storm Ketsana Philippines Worst Floods in Living Memory. Soon the fool extent of the human-enhanced disaster unfolded, as Tropical Storm Ketsana poured more than a month’s worth of rain on Manila in just a few hours.

About 300 people were killed in the Philippines worst floods in living memory caused by tropical storm Ketsana on September 26, which swamped about half a million homes in the Manila and nearby regions. By mid day September 27, about 80 to 90 percent of the Philippines capital was still submerged under water.

Commuters wade through waist-deep floodwaters following heavy rains brought about by tropical storm Ketsana (locally known as Ondoy) Saturday Sept. 26, 2009 in Manila, Philippines. At least five people have been killed after nearly a month’s worth of rain fell in just six hours Saturday, triggering the worst flooding in the Philippine capital in 42 years, stranding thousands on rooftops in the city and elsewhere as Tropical Storm Ketsana slammed ashore. (AP Photo/Bullit Marquez). Image may be subject to copyright.

FEWW Moderators expected Typhoon Parma to expand the destruction, and for the first time mentioned the probability of Manila collapsing.

Finally Parma Arrived!

Parma came, but for fleeting moments it looked like it could spare the Philippines main Island of Luzon. FEWW Moderators weren’t deceived, however. Driven by a more powerful storm, Typhoon Melor, which pinwheeled the by now weaker storm, ensuring that it would stay over northern Luzon for the next few days, Parma caused another round of deluge in Northern Luzon.

Could Manila Collapse?

On October 1, 2009, as Parma became a “super Typhoon, the moderators proposed:

Could Manila collapse as a result of devastation caused by the combined impact of the storms Ketsana, Parma (and  Melor, next week), as well as possible earthquakes triggered by landslides and massive mud avalanches, AND a highly probable catastrophic eruption of TAAL VOLCANO?

And suggested:

One way to find out is to wait and see! Another, is to stay tuned to FEWW forecasts and comments posted on this blog.

By Saturday October 10, 2009 at least 265 people were confirmed dead as landslides and flooding caused by Parma in the previous two days, the officials said.

A total of 265 people were confirmed dead in landslides and flooding caused by Parma in the past two days. Photo: AFP. Image may be subject to copyright.

This death toll from the deadly storms now stands at 611 with dozens more reported missing. Two weeks after Ketsana struck, up to 350,000 people are still packed into temporary evacuation centers. More than 3 million people have been affected.

But the Philippines worst nightmare hasn’t even started.

The specter of infectious disease outbreaks looms over the Philippines. Up to 3 million people in the country are immediately threatened by the very high risk of outbreaks of water-, sanitation-, and hygiene-related disease as well as foodborne epidemics including cholera, hepatitis A and E, typhoid fever, and shigellosis (caused by Shigella dysenteriae type 1 (Sd1), according to health officials.

The factors that are increasing health risks include:

• Malnutrition
  • compromises natural immunity,
  • leads to more frequent occurrences of infections
  • Infections become more severe and prolonged
  • communicable diseases become more difficult to diagnose and treat
  • pose significant threat to public health
  • infants and children are particularly at risk

• Disruption in power and fuel supplies with immediate impact on
  • drinking water
  • sanitation
  • personal hygiene
  • food production hygiene, refrigeration  and cooking facilities
• Displaced population and overcrowding
  • overcrowding in temporary relief centers would heighten the risk of acquiring
    • acute respiratory infections (ARI)
    • measles
    • meningitis.

By end of November/early December 2009, additional exposure to disease-carrying vectors such as mosquitoes could increase the risk of

• dengue
  
• malaria

As well as rarer diseases such as

• chikungunya
• hantavirus
• Japanese encephalitis

Disruption of Critical Services caused by flooding would prevent access to

• health and social and security
• medical, obstetric and surgical emergencies

Rainfall from Typhoon Parma

Typhoon Parma spent nearly a week pouring heavy rain on the northern half of the Philippine island of Luzon. This image shows both the storm’s track and the rainfall that accumulated between October 2 and October 8, 2009. The rainfall data are from the Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis, which includes rainfall observations from many satellites that are calibrated to match more detailed rainfall observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. The satellites recorded more than 700 millimeters (28 inches) of rain in places, shown in dark blue.

The heaviest rain fell on the mountain range that runs north to south along the length of the island, the Cordillera Central. Damages came from landslides on the slopes of the mountains and from floods caused by water flowing out of the mountains west to the South China Sea. The largest area of heavy rain sits over the Lingayen Gulf, the “u”-shaped body of water on the western shore of Luzon near the bottom of the image. One province in this region, Pangasinan, was between 60 and 80 percent flooded. The highest death toll came from another province, Benguet, a little north and east of Lingayen Gulf, where landslides impacted several villages.

The storm came ashore from the east and crossed the northern tip of the island on October 3, 2009. Under the influence of nearby Typhoon Melor, Parma stalled offshore, unleashing yet more rain on Luzon while spinning in place on October 4-5. Finally, the storm reversed direction and moved back across the Philippines toward Typhoon Melor on October 7. By October 8, Melor’s influence on Parma weakened, and Parma moved west again to make its third trip across Luzon Island. Many of the areas of heavy rain coincide with areas that likely saw Parma’s most intense inner bands more than once throughout the course of the week.

NASA Earth Observatory image by Jesse Allen, using near-real-time data provided courtesy of TRMM Science Data and Information System at Goddard Space Flight Center. Caption by Holli Riebeek. [Edited by FEWW]

Related Links:

• Images of the Day: Super Typhoon Melor
• Could Typhoon Melor Drag Parma Back to Philippines?
• When Will Global Food Shortages Begin Biting

• “Twin-engine” hurricanes, “Supercharged” Typhoons
• Super Typhoon Parma May Churn Manila to Vanila
• Philippines Extreme Rain from TS Ketsana

• Manila Flooding Could Trigger Quakes
• Philippines: Worst Floods in Living Memory
• Philippines Worst Ever Flood Casualties Climb a Notch

• Earth undergoing significant geophysical disturbances
• Typhoon Melor Leaves a Trail of Destruction in Japan
• Typhoon Melor Arriving in Japan, Leaving Lasting Impression

Super Typhoon Parma May Churn Manila to Vanila

Images of the Day: The Front One is Super Typhoon Parma

Philippines President has declared a nationwide “state of calamity” and ordered mass evacuations of six provinces in northern Luzon, where typhoon Parma is forecast to make a landfall  early afternoon  Saturday.

‘Typhoon Parma is forecast to strike the Philippines as a super typhoon at about 12:00 GMT on 3 October. Data supplied by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 17.2 N, 123.2 E. Parma is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 268 km/h (166 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.’ Reuters said.

About 300 people were killed in the Philippines worst floods in living memory caused by tropical storm Ketsana on September 26, which swamped about half a million homes in the Manila and nearby regions. Typhoon Parma is expected to expand the destruction.

MTSAT  Visible  Satellite Image of soon to be Super Typhoon Parma followed by Typhoon Melor – still image dated and timed at October 1, 2009 at 05:30UTC – Click on image to  enlarge the hourly updated image. Image: NOAA

MTSAT  Rainbow Enhancement Satellite Image of soon to be Super Typhoon Parma followed by Typhoon Melor – still image dated and timed at October 1, 2009 at 05:30UTC – Click on image to  enlarge the hourly updated image. Image: NOAA

72-hour Forecast Track  – Source: JMA. Image may be subject to copyright. Click on Image to update.

No. of typhoons in 2009 (so far) =  18
Annual Average (1951 – 2008)  = 19.1

Will Manila Collapse?

The probability of Manila collapsing will be discussed in the future posts.
Keyword: “Manila Collapsing.”

See comments section for updates.

Related Links:

• Philippines Extreme Rain from TS Ketsana
• Manila Flooding Could Trigger Quakes
• Philippines Worst Ever Flood Casualties Climb a Notch
• Philippines: Worst Floods in Living Memory

May 2009 Mudslides

Mudslides: Deadly Natural Hazards Enhanced by Human Activity

Large scale mudslides caused by heavy rainfalls yesterday damaged at least 200 homes in three villages in  Khatlon’s Khuroson district in southwester Tajikistan.

The authorities have been unable to assess the extent of damage caused by the disaster as most parts of  the villages are buried in the mud avalanche.

Mudslides hit three villages in Khuroson. Photo: Asia-Plus. Image may be subject to copyright.

“District hospital # 2 located in the settlement of Uyali was seriously damaged by the powerful mudslide and it currently does not work. All patients from this hospital have been evacuated to Qurghon Teppa and the central district hospital in the administrative center of Khuroson. A temporary camp for the mudslide-affected people has been set up.” Asia Plus reported.

“The source noted that mudslides had hit a number of other districts in Khatlon as well. Thus, seven residential buildings were damaged in the village of Pakhtakor in the Jilikul district; four of them were destroyed completely. Mudslides also demolished 50 hectares of cotton fields in the Panj district, damaged the section of the road Qurghon Teppa-Panj near the village of Somoni and partially damaged eight residential buildings in the Qumsangir district.”

A mountainous country in Central Asia, Tajikistan is landlocked by Kyrgyzstan to the north, Afghanistan to the south, People’s Republic of China to the east and Uzbekistan to the west.

This was the second large-scale mudslide to strike the area in less than three weeks.

Pitkin County, Colorado
On Monday mudslide toppled trees, rupturing an oil tank and causing oil spills at Buttermilk Ski Area in Pitkin County, in the US state of Colorado.

The slide was 60-feet wide by 100-feet long. No one was inside the shop and no one was injured as the mud came down over a two-hour period this afternoon, said Aspen Skiing Co. spokesman Jeff Hanle.

South Africa: Winter Rains a Mudslide Threat Following Fire

“The authorities are watching the denuded slopes of Table Mountain and Devil’s Peak carefully for any signs of a mudslide like those that damaged homes in the Clifton and Vredehoek areas in the 1990s, following devastating mountain fires.

“In March a fire raged across the slopes of Table Mountain and Devil’s Peak, consuming large tracts of veld and leaving the mountain devoid of soil-holding vegetation.

“Now the bare mountain poses another threat as winter sets in. There is a possibility that heavy rains could cause slides of debris, rocks and branches which could destroy roads and property from the Rhodes Memorial to parts of the CBD.” More …

Related News Links:

• The death toll from floods and mudslides triggered by a typhoon in the northern Philippines has more than doubled to 36, with 12 people still missing
• Four People Killed in Peru Mudslide
• Doctors needed for Panabaj

• A mudslide killed a woman and her daughter when it crushed their house in the Colombian city of Armenia
• PURDY CUT OFF ROAD CLOSED DUE TO MUDSLIDE
• Rain Causes Mudslides, Basement Flooding In Corbin, Kentucky

• Mayor Of Corbin [Eastern Kentucky] Declares State Of Emergency
• Road Closed by Mudslide in Rockbridge Co., VA
• Cotswold Geotech facing manslaughter charges over mudslide death of Alex Wright

Related FEWW Link:

• Landslides, Floods, Extreme Rain Events