Earthquake Forecast 2009

Earthquake Forecast 2009 – country in focus: Japan

2009 Earthquake Forecast by FEWW / CASF – Release Date: December 18, 2008. [All data are subject to updates and changes.]

Historic Japan earthquakes: 2008 [as of  December 18, 2008]

See Also:

• Magnitude MW 5.7 Quake Hits Southern Alaska [Anchorage Quake Forecast]
  
• 2009 US Quake Forecast
• Earthquakes [Links Page]

[Earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater or ones that caused fatalities, injuries or substantial damage. Source: Data Compiled by Pamela J. Benfield and NEIC Operations Staff.]

• 2008 09 11 – Hokkaido, Japan region – M 6.8
  
• 2008 07 23 – Eastern Honshu, Japan – M 6.8 Fatalities 1
• 2008 07 19 – Off the East Coast of Honshu, Japan – M 7.0

• 2008 07 05 – Sea of Okhotsk – M 7.7
• 2008 06 13 – Eastern Honshu, Japan – M 6.9 Fatalities 13
• 2008 05 07 – Near the East Coast of Honshu, Japan – M 6.8

Historic japan earthquake: 2007

• 2007 07 16 – Sea of Japan – M 6.8
• 2007 07 16 – Near the west coast of Honshu, Japan – M 6.6 Fatalities 9
• 2007 03 25 – Near the West Coast of Honshu,Japan – M 6.7 Fatalities 1

Earthquake Density Map of Japan [USGS]

Seismicity Map

Credit: USGS

Seismic Hazard Map of Japan

Credit: USGS

Notable Earthquakes in Japan [USGS]

• 1891 10 27 – Mino-Owari, Japan – M 8.0 Fatalities 7,273
• 1896 06 15 – Sanriku, Japan – M 8.5 Fatalities 27,000
• 1923 09 01 – Kanto (Kwanto), Japan – M 7.9 Fatalities 143,000
• 1927 03 07 – Tango, Japan – M 7.6 Fatalities 3,020
• 1933 03 02 – Sanriku, Japan – M 8.4 Fatalities 2,990
• 1943 09 10 – Tottori, Japan – M 7.4 Fatalities 1,190
• 1944 12 07 – Tonankai, Japan – M 8.1 Fatalities 998
• 1945 01 12 – Mikawa, Japan – M 7.1 Fatalities 1,961
• 1946 12 20 – Nankaido, Japan – M 8.1 Fatalities 1,330
• 1948 06 28 – Fukui, Japan – M 7.3 Fatalities 3,769
• 1964 06 16 – Niigata, Japan – M 7.5 Fatalities 26
• 1995 01 16 – Kobe, Japan – M 6.9 Fatalities 5,502
• 2000 10 06 – Western Honshu, Japan – M 6.7
• 2003 05 26 – Near the East Coast of Honshu, Japan – M 7.0
• 2003 09 25 – Hokkaido, Japan Region – M 8.3
• 2003 10 08 – Hokkaido, Japan Region – M 6.7
• 2003 10 31 – Off the East Coast of Honshu, Japan – M 7.0
• 2004 05 29 – Off the East Coast of Honshu, Japan – M 6.5
• 2004 09 05 – Near the South Coast of Western Honshu, Japan – M 7.2
• 2004 09 05 – Near the South Coast of Honshu, Japan – M 7.4
• 2004 09 06 – Near the South Coast of Honshu, Japan – M 6.6
• 2004 10 23 – Near the West Coast of Honshu, Japan – M 6.6 Fatalities 40
• 2004 11 28 – Hokkaido, Japan Region – M 7.0
• 2004 12 06 – Hokkaido, Japan Region – M 6.8
• 2005 03 20 – Kyushu, Japan – M 6.6 Fatalities 1
• 2005 07 23 – Near the South Coast of Honshu, Japan – M 5.9
• 2005 08 16 – Near the East Coast of Honshu, Japan – M 7.2
• 2005 10 19 – Near the East Coast of Honshu, Japan – M 6.3
• 2005 11 14 – Off the East Coast of Honshu, Japan – M 7.0
• 2005 12 02 – Near the East Coast of Honshu, Japan – M 6.5
• 2006 06 11 – Kyushu, Japan – M 6.3
• 2007 03 25 – Near the West Coast of Honshu,Japan – M 6.7 Fatalities 1
• 2007 07 16 – Near the west coast of Honshu, Japan – M 6.6 Fatalities 9
• 2008 05 07 – Near the East Coast of Honshu, Japan – M 6.8
• 2008 06 13 – Eastern Honshu, Japan – M 6.9 Fatalities 13
• 2008 07 23 – Eastern Honshu, Japan – M 6.8 Fatalities 1
• 2008 09 11 – Hokkaido, Japan region – M 6.8

Source: USGS

Source: USGS

Related Links:

• Magnitude MW 5.7 Quake Hits Southern Alaska
• 2009 US Quake Forecast
• Earthquakes [Links Page]

Magnitude 6.2 Quake Hits Honshu, Japan

UPDATE: The Honshu quake detailed below has been downgraded to a 5.7Mw by USGS.

A Large Mag 6.2 Earthquake Hits Near the East Coast of Honshu, Japan

The following details were provided by USGS Earthquake Hazards Program:

Magnitude: Mw 6.2 [Later downgraded to Mw 5.7]

Date-Time:

• Wednesday, December 03, 2008 at 23:16:58 UTC
• Thursday, December 04, 2008 at 08:16:58 AM at epicenter

Location: 38.566°N, 142.762°E
Depth: 35 km (21.7 miles) set by location program
Region: Near the East Coast of Honshu, Japan

Distances:

• 170 km (105 miles) ENE of Sendai, Honshu, Japan
• 190 km (120 miles) SE of Morioka, Honshu, Japan
• 220 km (140 miles) ENE of Fukushima, Honshu, Japan
• 420 km (260 miles) NE of TOKYO, Japan

[Mainshock was followed by a strong aftershock measuring Mw5.2 located at 38.555°N, 142.840°E, Thursday, December 04, 2008 at 12:10:54 PM time at epicenter.]

Source: USGS

No immediate reports of tsunami, damage or injuries as yet.

Map of MMI contours plotted over population per ˜1 square km (see gray scale bar on top of map). The regions of integer MMI values are separated by the thick contour lines and labeled with Roman numerals. The total population exposure to a given MMI value is obtained by summing the population between the thick contour lines. This total is shown in population exposure table. Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are a mix of vulnerable and earthquake resistant construction. A magnitude 6.6 earthquake 378 km Northeast of this one struck Niigata, Japan on October 23, 2004 (UTC), with estimated population exposures of 481,000 at intensity IX or greater and 386,000 at intensity VIII, resulting in an estimated 67 fatalities. Recent earthquakes in this area have caused, landslides and fires that may have contributed to losses. USGS

Map of japan. USGS

Earthquake Location: USGS

Japan sits atop the Eurasian, Pacific, Philippine and North American tectonic plates whose movements cause numerous earthquakes. The country experiences about 20 percent of the world’s major earthquakes of magnitude 6 or greater.

Did you know?

With an estimated total death toll of 88,072 [as of yesterday, Dec 3, 2008,] this year has seen the second worst number of human casualties caused by earthquakes since 1980. The largest earthquake/ tsunami related casualties for the 29-year period occurred in 2004 with an estimated total of 228,802 deaths.  [The stats are based on USGS data.] 

Related Links:

• Magnitude 6.8 Quake Hits Japan [ July 24, 2008]
  
• Powerful Offshore Quake Strikes Japan’s Eastern Coast [July 19, 2008 quake]
• Powerful Earthquake Strikes Honshu, Japan [June 14, 2008]