Latest Update: Gustav Now a Category Four Hurricane, as Forecast
Aug 29 – 03:00 UTC: TS Gustav Latest Update
Aug 27 Update: Hurricane Gustav to Feed on Warm Waters
Hurricane Gustav VII [the seventh storm of the Atlantic hurricane season] is Heading Toward Haiti
With powerful winds of 140 km/h (85mph), Gustav is churning through Caribbeans heading toward south-west Haiti, likely to wreak havoc and cause much devastation in the region.
Hurricane Gustav is seen in this satellite image dated August 26, 2008. REUTERS/NOAA/Handout
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone – NOAA/NWS
This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time. NOAA-NWS
These graphics show probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 64 kt…74 mph (hurricane force). These wind speed probability graphics are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. Each graphic provides cumulative probabilities that wind speeds of at least 74 mph will occur during cumulative time periods at each specific point on the map. The cumulative periods begin at the start of the forecast period and extend through the entire 5-day forecast period at cumulative 12-hour intervals (i.e., 0-12 h, 0-24 h, 0-36 h, … , 0-120 h). An individual graphic is produced for each cumulative interval, and the capability to zoom and animate through the periods is provided. To assess the overall risk of experiencing winds of at least 74 mph at any location, the 120-h graphics are recommended. NOAA-NWS
Gustav Could Become a Cat. Two Hurricane Before Landfall in Haiti
Gustav became stronger as it neared the south coast of Haiti, NHC reported. Here’re the highlights of NHC Hurricane Advisory:
- A hurricane warning remains in effect from Barahona in the Dominican Republic westward to Le Mole St Nicholas Haiti.
- A hurricane watch is also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Las Tunas, Granma, Holguin, Santiago de Cuba and Guantanamo. A hurricane watch is also in effect for Jamaica.
- At 8:00 am EDT the center of hurricane Gustav was located near latitude 17.5 north, longitude 72.0 west or about 125 km south-southeast of Port Au Prince Haiti and about 425 km southeast of Guantanamo Cuba.
- Gustav continues moving toward the northwest at 15 km/hr today with a turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed forecast on Wednesday. On this track this hurricane should move over Southwestern Haiti later today and near or just south of Eastern Cuba on Wednesday.
- Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 Km/hr with higher gusts. Gustav is a category one hurricane on The Saffir-Simpson scale. The hurricane could become a category Two hurricane before landfall in Haiti later today.
- Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 km from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 110 km.
- The latest minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).
Hurricane Gustav – GOES Infrared AVN Color Floater Imagery – 30 minute updates
Rainfall accumulations of 4 to 7 inches over southern Hispaniola and Jamaica with isolated maximum amounts of up to 15 inches are possible. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. — Forecaster Brown/Pasch
“Oil prices in Asia rose Tuesday on concerns Hurricane Gustav may disrupt oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico.” AP reported.
“It’s hard to predict where Gustav will strike,” an analyst in Singapore reported. “But the market is reacting to it and edging up some.”
“Light, sweet crude for October delivery was up 58 cents at $115.69 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore. The contract rose 52 cents overnight to settle at $115.11 a barrel.”
On its forecast track and anticipated strength, Gustav could cause significant disruptions to offshore oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico.
REM: You read it hear first! ;)