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Archive for the ‘Rick 5-Day Track Forecast Cone’ Category

Rick Strengthens to a Major Hurricane

Posted by feww on October 17, 2009

For UPDATES see links in comments section

Rick Strengthened to an Extremely Dangerous Category 4 Hurricane

At 10:15 UTC the center of hurricane Rick was near latitude 14.0°N, longitude 102.3°W,  or about

  • 40 km southwest of Acapulco, Mexico
  • 595 km south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico

rb-l  - Hurricane Rick
Rick is Now a Cat 4A Hurricane on FEWW New Hurricane Scale ( Cat. four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale). GOES Satellite Image. Rainbow Enhancement – Still Frame. Date and time as inset. Click image to enlarge and update.

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone

Coastal Watches- Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone
Rick’s 5-day Track Forecast. Click Image to enlarge and update.

Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities – 120 Hours
Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities - 120 Hours
Hurricane Rick Wind Speed Probabilities – 120 Hours

Direction and Speed

  • Rick is moving in a west-northwesterly direction at 19 km/hr
  • Expected to stay on its forecast track for the next 48 hours
  • Will remain off-shore, moving parallel to the southern coast of Mexico

Wind Speed

  • Maximum sustained winds: 215

Category

Rick is now an extremely dangerous category 4A on FEWW New Hurricane Scale ( Cat. four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

Further Strengthening Forecast:

  • Rick will Most probably strengthen to a category five hurricane in the next 12 – 36 hours.

Wind Forces and Pressure

  • Hurricane force winds: Extend 55 km
  • Tropical storm force winds: Extend 165 km from the center
  • Minimum central pressure: 71.09mm Hg (948 mb).

Rain Potential

  • Rick’s outer rainbands will continue to affect the Southern coast of Mexico, NHC said.

FEWW Comment:

Rick enlarged image
Hurricane Rick looks organized, symmetrical and extremely dangerous. Warm coastal waters off the Mexican coast will most likely help Rick to become a Category 5 hurricane. Rick could devastate Baja and coastal areas of western Mexico.

As Typhoon LUPIT (currently located near Philippines) and Hurricane Rick grow stronger,  the question on many people’s mind must now be whether the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season will end with  a whimper, or the “mother of all hurricanes” could still form there …

Other Satellite Images

GOES Satellite: East Pacific Hurricane Rick(EP20)

Additional Images:

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