California Earthquake Forecast – Update 4

Google Inc. Continues to Filter, Block and Bury Information Posted on Fire Earth and Affiliated Blogs

Additionally, since at least the beginning of March 2010, nearly every entry posted on Fire-Earth, which show up in Google searches, point to Ning Network, diluting Fire Earth traffic by at least 50 percent.

See evidence :

• HP Director, Google Continue To Steal Internet Traffic

• Google Sends Search Traffic to 3rd Party

To prevent Google and rest of the Internet Mafia from making financial gains by acting on the information provided, which they filter and conceal from the public, the Fire-Earth science advisory team have advised blog Moderators that as of today they have suspended all research into California’s seismic activity until further notice.

The  Fire-Earth science advisory team hereby advise their family members, friends, colleagues and all of the good people of California to relocate out of the state.

Related Links:

• California Earthquake Forecast – Update 3 [September 24, 2009]
  
• California Earthquake Forecast – Update 2 [August 11, 2009 ]
• California Earthquake Forecast 2009 – UPDATE [August 4, 2009]
• California Earthquake Forecast 2009 [March 24, 2009]

Serial No  1,565. Starting April 2010, each entry on this blog has a unique serial number. If any of the numbers are missing, it may mean that the corresponding entry has been blocked by the authorities/Google in your country. Please drop us a line if you detect any anomaly/missing number(s).

California Earthquake Forecast – Update 3

For background and latest update see:

• California Earthquake Forecast – Update 2 [August 11, 2009 ]
• California Earthquake Forecast 2009 – UPDATE [August 4, 2009]
• California Earthquake Forecast 2009 [March 24, 2009]

• California Earthquake Forecast – Update 4  [April 12, 2010]

Up to three earthquakes measuring magnitude 6.2 or greater could strike Western US in 2009

California Earthquake Forecast: UPDATE #3

Magnitude 7.6  to  7.9 earthquake could strike the SF Bay Area, northern California in 2009

FEWW Moderators Forecast a magnitude 7.6 to 7.9  earthquake and two possible aftershocks measuring about 5.5 Mw (subject to the magnitude of the mainshock) for the San Francisco Bay Area, northern California in 2009.

Details of EQ Forecast

• Magnitude: 7.6 to 7.9 Mw

• Provisional date:  September 28, 2009
• Date uncertainty: ~ 90 Days
• Epicenter: 37° 52′ 20″N, 122° 15′ 10″W
• Depth: 9.0 km
• Depth uncertainty: ±2.8 km
• Location: ~2.88 km (1.79miles ) east of Berkeley Fire Departments: Fire Prevention & Disaster Preparedness (CA 94702).
• Location uncertainty:
  • Up to 5 km to the west of Hayward Fault
  • Up to 14 km NNW within a 5-km corridor along the Hayward Fault
  • Up to 22 km SSE within a 5-km corridor along the Hayward Fault

• Probability of of occurrence 0.8 [77%]

Map of N California Fault Lines. Source: USGS

Satellite map of forecast epicenter. Source: Google Maps [See terms of use for copyright information.]

FEWW Bay Area Earthquake Forecast Uncertainty Zone. Source: Google Earth [See terms of use for copyright information.]

Note: This forecast does NOT preclude the possibility of other seismic events in the area at any time.

Related Links:

• FEWW Earthquake Links
• California Earthquake Forecast – Update 2 [August 11, 2009 ]
• California Earthquake Forecast 2009 – UPDATE [August 4, 2009]
• California Earthquake Forecast 2009 [March 24, 2009]

Deadly Earthquake Strikes Java, Indonesia

Powerful earthquake measuring at least 7.3 Mw strikes off the coast of Java, Indonesia.

FEWW ‘EarthModel’ estimated the magnitude as 7.6 Mw, while the quake was recorded by the European-Mediterranean Seismological Center as a magnitude 7.3Mw (±0.4 )

More than 20 people have been killed according to the initial reports, with  hundreds of structures destroyed or damaged in the city of Tasikmalaya and town of Sukabumi west of Java. Thousands of people have been evacuated, taking refuge in open areas, including the grounds of a military base.

Dozens more people were injured, including up to 50 people in Jakarta, about 190km from the epicenter, officials said.

Magnitude 7.6Mw destroyed or damaged many buildings in the city of Tasikmalaya west of the island of Java. Photo: AFP. Image may be subject to copyright.

The quake struck offshore, with the epicenter about 115km west-southwest of Tasikmalaya city (190 km SSE of the Capital Jakarta), at a depth of about 60 km.

The mainshock was followed by at least 4 aftershocks, with 2 of the shocks measuring 5.6 and  5.2. Local tsunami warnings automatically issued after the quake have now been withdrawn. Local seismologists reported small  sea levels rises near the west coast of Java.

Summary of Earthquake details as reported by
European-Mediterranean Seismological Center

Magnitude:  7.3 Mw (±0.4 )
Region:  JAVA, INDONESIA

Date and time: 2009-09-02 at 07:55:03.8 UTC
Location: 7.84 S ; 107.35 E
Depth: 70 km
Distances:

• 91 km S Banjaran (pop 164,952 ; local time 14:55 2009-09-02)
• 72 km S Banjar (pop 37,263 ; local time 14:55 2009-09-02

Automatic GEOFON Global Seismic Monitor

© Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum – GFZ

GFZ Potsdam – Earthquake Bulletin

• Region: Java, Indonesia
• Time: 2009-09-02 07:55:02.7 UTC
• Magnitude: 7.4
• Epicenter: 107.34°E 8.00°S
• Depth: 62 km
• Status: manually revised

USGS/EHP
In line with their current practice of downsizing nearly all their EQ reports in 2009, USGS Earthquake Hazard Program downgraded the quake to a magnitude 7.0 Mw.

FEWW Earthquake Forecast For Java/Bali Region:

• Region: Java/Bali, Indonesia
• Date of Occurrence: September to Late December 2009
• Magnitude: 8.4+
• Epicenter: 10°40’31.43″S 114°55’33.81″E
• Depth: 40 km

Related Links:

• Magnitude 6.8 EQ Strikes BANDA SEA
• Earthquake Forecast: Timor Sea
• Australian Oil Disaster May Get a Lot Worse
• FEWW Earthquake Links

Earthquake Forecast: Timor Sea

A Magnitude 7.4 Earthquake Could Strike Timor Sea Region

FEWW Moderators believe that a powerful 7.4 Mw earthquake followed by a large cluster of aftreshocks may strike Timor Sea Region anytime.

Map of the FEWW quake forecast in Timor Sea. Original map: Google Earth. Image may be subject to copyright.

Details of FEWW Earthquake Forecast

• Magnitude: 7.4 or greater
• Estimated Date:  November 30, 2009 [Uncertainty:  T±90 days]
• Epicenter: 11°34’23.78″S,  124°45’28.10″E
• Location: Timor Sea
• Depth: 27km [Uncertainty: +/- 6.8km]
• Distances:
  • 109 km NW of Challis Oil Field (See Australian Oil Disaster May Get a Lot Worse)

• • 160km South of the southern coast of West Timor, province of East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia.
  • 190 km ENE of Ashmore Island [Ashmore and Cartier Islands]
  • 203 km NW Kupang, West Timor
  • 281 km NNW of Troughton Island, North Kimberly Coast, NW Australia
  • 666 km WNW of Darwin Australia

• Horizontal Uncertainty: radius of about 60 km from the forecast epicenter

• Probability of Occurrence: 0.7 (72%)

Note: This forecast does NOT preclude the possibility of other seismic events in the area at any time.

Related Links:

• Australian Oil Disaster May Get a Lot Worse
• FEWW Earthquake Links

California Earthquake Forecast 2009 – UPDATE

For initial forecast see:

California Earthquake Forecast 2009

Based on the recent seismic activity in the Gulf of California, FEWW Moderators revise their forecast for California earthquakes in 2009 as follows:

(i) A magnitude 7.4 earthquake and two strong aftershocks (5.5+ Mw) could strike California in 2009 with a probability of 0.9 (88%).

(ii) The estimated date of occurrence:  September 28, 2009

(iii) The occurrence date uncertainty: ~ +90 days from the forecast date

(iv) The epicenter is located in a built-up area. [Further information may be released later.]

(v) In addition to the above event, two other powerful earthquakes could strike the western United States in 2009.  (Probability of occurrence for a  single event is 77% and for the two events, 64%).

Related Links:

• California Earthquake Forecast 2009
• Earthquakes

The Ghost of L’Aquila Quake

Satellite image of Earth movement during Italy quake

An Envisat Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) interferogram interpretation by Italy’s Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). The large green square represents the Mw 6.3 main shock, the smaller green squares represent the Mw > 5 aftershocks and the black triangles represent GPS stations used for SAR validation. The yellow line east of L’Aquila shows the location of a ~4 km–long alignment of co-seismic surface breaks observed in the field by INGV researchers. This alignment corresponds to a northwest – southeast strip where the spatial fringe rate seems to exceed the limit for interferometric correlation. This may indicate that the fault dislocation reached, or was very close to, the surface along this line. The observed pattern of ground displacement is in very good agreement with the earthquake source mechanism (the ‘beach ball’), confirming that the earthquake source is a normal fault striking 144 degrees (clockwise from north), and dipping to the southwest.

The technique is a sophisticated version of  ‘spot the difference’. InSAR involves combining two or more radar images of the same ground location in such a way that very precise measurements – down to a scale of a few millimeters – can be made of any ground motion taking place between image acquisitions.

Each rainbow band represents about 28 millimeters of ground movements. Credits: INGV. Caption: ESA.