‘Weather Bomb’ Hits UK

DISASTERS CAUSED OR ENHANCED BY CLIMATE CHANGE
EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
.

Explosive Cyclogenesis Brings Massive Lightning Storm to NW Britain

Thousands are without electricity, train and ferries have been cancelled, as a weather bomb, bringing a massive lightning storm and “exceptionally high” waves, hit northwestern UK.

The UK Met Office had earlier warned that western and northern Scotland and the far north of Northern Ireland could experience “dangerous conditions” on Wednesday due to a rapidly-developing Atlantic storm known as an Explosive Cyclogenesis, with wind gusts of up to 130 km/h.

Explosive Cyclogenesis is a rapidly deepening extratropical cyclonic low-pressure area. It occurs when the central pressure of a depression at 60˚ latitude drops by 24 millibars (hPa) or more in 24 hours.

A second storm front is forecast to move  across the U.K. on Thursday, said the Met Office.

Amber & Yellow warnings of severe weather have been issued by the UK Met Office

Regions affected by Amber warning:
Highlands & Eilean Siar, Northern Ireland, Orkney & Shetland, Strathclyde

Regions affected by Yellow warnings:
Central, Tayside & Fife, East Midlands, East of England, Grampian, Highlands & Eilean Siar, London & South East England, North East England, North West England, Northern Ireland, Orkney & Shetland, SW Scotland, Lothian Borders, South West England, Strathclyde, Wales, West Midlands, Yorkshire & Humber

Satellite animation showing developing area of low pressure

Lightning over 24 hours from 09:30 GMT on Tuesday, with darker colors indicating more recent strikes. Issued by UK Met Office/ via BBC.

‘Planetary Genesis’ Captured by ALMA

Images of the  Day:

‘Planet formation’ captured in ALMA image

HL Tauri (HL Tau), the infant star at the center, is about a million years old, and is 450 light years (140 pc) from Earth in the constellation Taurus.

The sun-like star is surrounded by vast rings of dust and gas, which will form planets, asteroids and comets, and is trailed by the Herbig-Haro object HH 151.

A new image from ALMA, the Atacama Large Millimeter/ submillimeter Array, located in northern Chile’s Atacama desert, is said to reveal for the first time ever extraordinarily fine details  in the planet-forming disc around a young star, said researchers at ALMA Observatory.

ALMA’s antennas are spaced up to 15 kilometers apart to provide new high-resolution capabilities, said to be a major leap in the understanding of how protoplanetary discs develop and how planets form.

Top: This is the sharpest image ever taken by ALMA — sharper than is routinely achieved in visible light with the Hubble Space Telescope. It shows the protoplanetary disc surrounding the young star HL Tauri. These new ALMA observations reveal substructures within the disc that have never been seen before and even show the possible positions of planets forming in the dark patches within the system. Credit: ALMA (ESO/NAOJ/NRAO) | Download.  Middle: This is a composite image of the young star HL Tauri and its surroundings using data from ALMA (enlarged in box at upper right) and the Hubble Space Telescope (rest of the picture). This is the first ALMA image where the image sharpness exceeds that normally attained with Hubble. Credit: ALMA (ESO/NAOJ/NRAO)/ESA | Download. Bottom: This image compares the size of the Solar System with HL Tauri and its surrounding protoplanetary disc. Although the star is much smaller than the Sun, the disc around HL Tauri stretches out to almost three times as far from the star as Neptune is from the Sun. Credit: ALMA (ESO/NAOJ/NRAO) | Download

“These features are almost certainly the result of young planet-like bodies that are being formed in the disc. This is surprising since such young stars are not expected to have large planetary bodies capable of producing the structures we see in this image,” said Stuartt Corder, ALMA Deputy Director.

“When we first saw this image we were astounded at the spectacular level of detail. HL Tauri is no more than a million years old, yet already its disc appears to be full of forming planets. This one image alone will revolutionize theories of planet formation,” explained Catherine Vlahakis, ALMA Deputy Program Scientist and Lead Program Scientist for the ALMA Long Baseline Campaign. [Source and credit: ALMA (ESO/NAOJ/NRAO)]

More information posted HERE.

The lamb born with two heads dies

U2 [aka, Lambie, Two Face,] the New Zealand lamb born with two faces, has died of a brain bleed after 41 days in Southland, NZ.

Photo shows Two Face shortly after birth.  Image: Supplied by owner/ Via nzherald

Related Links

• Hermaphrodite Lamb Born With Seven Legs Posted on September 25, 2007

June 27th Flow Could Reach Ocean by May 2015

VOLCANIC HAZARDS
KILAUEA JUNE 27TH LAVA FLOW
STATE OF EMERGENCY PROCLAMATION
MASS EVACUATIONS
LOSS OF HABITAT
CROP DESTRUCTION
SCENARIOS 989, 900, 797, 787, 707, 444, 402, 070, 047, 017, 07, 02
.

Kilauea’s lava flow continues to cross Pāhoa Village

FIRE-EARTH estimates the June 27th flow could reach the ocean, currently about 10km away, by May 2015. Temperature of the lava exceeds 850°C along the leading edge of the most rapidly advancing part of the flow.

HVO Daily Update:  October 29, 2014 @09:12 AM HST (Wednesday, October 29, 2014 @ 19:12 UTC)

KILAUEA VOLCANO (VNUM #332010)
Coordinates: 19°25’16” N 155°17’13” W (19.421111N, 155.286944W)
Summit Elevation: 4091 ft (1,247 m)
Current Volcano Alert Level: WARNING
Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE

Activity Summary: Kīlauea continues to erupt at its summit and within its East Rift Zone, and gas emissions remained elevated. Currently, the June 27th flow is advancing northeast through a residential area between Apaʻa St/Cemetery Rd and Pāhoa Village Road. During the past 24 hours, the leading edge of the most rapidly advancing part of the flow advanced at an average rate of roughly 10 m/hr (~11 yd/hr); between 2am and 630 am this morning, the rate of advance slowed to roughly 5 m/hr (~5.5 yd/hr). At 7AM, the flow front was about 240 m (~260 yd) straight-line distance from Pāhoa Village Road. Source: HVO

Currently, the flow continues to advance at a rate of 5 m/hr (~5.5 yd/hr), said HVO.

• GPS receivers in the summit area have recorded slight contraction across the caldera since early July. The most recent sulfur-dioxide emission rate measurements for the summit were 2,700–3,600 tonnes/day (see caveat here) for the week ending October 21, 2014.
• The ambient SO2 concentrations near the vent vary greatly, but are persistently higher than 10 ppm and frequently exceed 50 ppm (upper limit of detector) during moderate trade winds.
• The gas plume typically includes a small amount of ash-sized tephra (mostly fresh spatter bits and Pele’s hair from the circulating lava lake). The heaviest pieces are deposited onto nearby surfaces while the finer bits can be carried several kilometers before dropping out of the plume.

A view of the flow over Cemetery Rd./Apaʻa St. The transfer station is at the top of the image. Source: HVO

The June 27th flow remains active, and is slowly approaching Pāhoa Village Road. This photo was taken just before 10 am, and shows the flow front moving through private property towards a low point on the road. At 11:30 am today, the flow front was 215 m (235 yards) from Pāhoa Village Road. Source: HVO

This photo looks downslope from Cemetery Road, and shows the pasture and cemetery that the flow front advanced through several days ago. Much of the cemetery has been covered by lava, but a kipuka has left a portion of the cemetery uncovered for now. Source: HVO

Related Links

• Lava Enters Two Residences in Pāhoa October 29, 2014
• Kilauea Lava Flow Could Affect Thousands on Hawaiʻi Island  September 5, 2014
• Lava Flow from Kilauea Advancing AGAIN on Big Island Communities October 7, 2014
• Kīlauea Lava Flow Consuming Everything Along Its Paths October 27, 2014
• Lava Flow Nearing Residences in Pāhoa, Hawaii October 28, 2014

Lava Enters Two Residences in Pāhoa

VOLCANIC HAZARDS
KILAUEA JUNE 27TH LAVA FLOW
STATE OF EMERGENCY PROCLAMATION
MASS EVACUATIONS
LOSS OF HABITAT
CROP DESTRUCTION
SCENARIOS 989, 900, 797, 787, 707, 444, 402, 070, 047, 017, 07, 02
.

Kīlauea June 27th flow enters Pāhoa, Hawaii

Lava is crossing Pāhoa Village, Hawaii at a rate of about 15 m/hr (16yd/hr), according to observers from Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).

Tuesday, October 28, 2014 5:57 PM HST (Wednesday, October 29, 2014 03:57 UTC)

Kīlauea Volcano Activity Summary: Kīlauea continued to erupt at its summit and within the East Rift Zone, and gas emissions remained elevated. The advance rate of the narrow leading edge has been variable over the past day, and as high as 16 meters (17 yards) per hour. The flow width was less than about 50 meters (55 yards) at the leading edge and as wide as 150 meters (165 yards) immediately upslope as breakouts have occurred along margins of the flow. Portions of the flow continued to inflate by as much as 2 meters as new fresh new lava was delivered to the advancing flow front.

As of 5:30 PM, the flow was 310 meters (340 yards) in a straight line distance from Pāhoa Village Road and about 900 meters (985 yards) in a straight-line distance from Highway 130.

The lava lobe upslope of Apa`a Street advanced about 30 meters (82 yards) since yesterday. [Source: HVO]

June 27th Lava Flow Observations:

Top: The most rapidly advancing lobe of the flow entered the first occupied residential property at about 2 am HST Tuesday morning, and is continuing to advance northeast towards Pāhoa Village Road, currently at a rate of 15 m/hr (16 yd/hr). HVO expects the flow to cross Pahoa Village Road between Apaʻa St and Post Office Road. Bottom: Note the inflated flow behind the fence, which is chest-high. (Source: HVO)

The June 27th lava flow burns vegetation as it approaches a property boundary above Pāhoa early on the morning of Tuesday, October 28, 2014. (Source: HVO)

Related Links

• Kilauea Lava Flow Could Affect Thousands on Hawaiʻi Island  September 5, 2014
• Lava Flow from Kilauea Advancing AGAIN on Big Island Communities October 7, 2014
• Kīlauea Lava Flow Consuming Everything Along Its Paths October 27, 2014
• Lava Flow Nearing Residences in Pāhoa, Hawaii October 28, 2014
  

Lava Flow from Kilauea Advancing AGAIN on Big Island Communities

VOLCANIC HAZARDS
KILAUEA JUNE 27TH LAVA FLOW
STATE OF EMERGENCY PROCLAMATION
MASS EVACUATIONS
LOSS OF HABITAT
CROP DESTRUCTION
SCENARIOS 989, 900, 797, 787, 707, 444, 070, 047, 017, 07, 02
.

Kilauea Lava Flow:  June 27th lava flow continues to advance NE at 120 m/day

The lava flow out of the continuously erupting Kilauea Volcano is slowly advancing downslope toward the town of Pāhoa (population: ~1,000) on the Big Island.

About 4,500 people could be affected by the lava flow in the coming days.

Tuesday Oct0ber 7, 2014 (UTC). Civil Defense Message: “This morning’s assessment shows that the flow front continues to be active and has advanced approximately 150 yards since yesterday.  The narrow flow front is moving along the tree line and the burning activity is producing a significant amount of smoke.  There is no brush fire threat at this time and the burning is limited to the edges of the flow only.  Due to a light southwest wind this morning the vog and smoke conditions were moderate to heavy across lower Puna to Hilo.”

[Note: Vog, a type of air pollution, is formed when sulfur dioxide and other gases and particles emitted by an erupting volcano react with oxygen and air moisture in the sunlight.]

Flow front continues advancing northeast, triggers brush fire. The June 27th lava flow remains active, and the flow front continues to advance towards the northeast along the forest boundary. Today, the flow front consisted of a narrow lobe moving through thick forest. The flow front was 1.7 km (1.1 miles) upslope of Apaʻa St., and 2.7 km (1.7 miles) from Pāhoa Village Road. The lava flow also triggered a brush fire that was active north of the flow front Monday afternoon local time [HAST= UTC -10 hrs.]

Kilauea Status Reports

Issued: Monday, October 6, 2014, 6:42 PM HST (Tuesday, 2014/10/07/04:42UTC)
Source: Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO)
Notice Number: 2014/H13
Location: N 19 deg 25 min, W 155 deg 17 min
Elevation: 4091 ft (1,247 m)
Area: HI Hawaii and Pacific Ocean
Current Volcano Alert Level: WARNING
Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE

Volcanic Activity Summary: The June 27th flow remains active, with a narrow flow about 115 m (230 ft) wide moving downslope about 120 m/day (390 ft/day) since October 3.

At the average rate of advancement of 120 m/day, the lava could reach Apa`a St. in about 16 days. The advance rate of the June 27th flow has varied significantly during the past month, meaning this projection is subject to change. HVO’s next overflight is scheduled for Wednesday, October 8.

Recent Observations by HVO: The lava flow has continued to advance northeast since October 3 at about 120 m/day (390 ft/day). The leading edge is now about 1.7 km (1.1 mi) straight-line distance from Apa`a St.

Hazard Analysis by HVO: The lava flow from the Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō vent is active, and lava is being supplied to the flow front, which is slowly advancing downslope toward Pāhoa town, which is located  in the Puna District of the County of Hawai`i.

Puʻu ʻŌʻō Observations: There was little net change in ground tilt at Pu’u O’o over the past day. Glow was visible overnight above several outgassing openings in the crater floor. The most recent sulfur-dioxide emission-rate measurement for the East Rift Zone was 550 tonnes per day (from all sources) on September 25, 2014. Seismic tremor is low and constant.

Summit Observations: Deflationary tilt at Kīlauea’s summit continues this morning along with a decrease in the lava lake level at the summit vent. There was no major change in seismicity on Kilauea over the past day; seismic tremor at the summit remained low and varied with changes in spattering on the surface of the lava lake. GPS receivers spanning the summit caldera recorded about 5 cm (2 in) of extension between early May and early July. Since then, little significant extension or contraction has occurred. During the week ending on September 30, 2014, the elevated summit sulfur-dioxide emission rate was measured at 3,600–5,200 tonnes/day (see caveat below), and a small amount of particulate material was carried aloft by the plume.

Remarks [Source: HVO] : The Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō vent in the East Rift Zone of Kīlauea Volcano began erupting on January 3, 1983, and has continued erupting for more than 31 years, with the majority of lava flows advancing to the south. Over the past two years, lava flows have issued from the vent toward the northeast. The June 27th flow is the most recent of these flows and the first to threaten a residential area since 2010-2011. On June 27, 2014, new vents opened on the northeast flank of the Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō cone and fed a narrow lava flow to the east-northeast. On August 18, the flow entered a ground crack, traveled underground for several days, then resurfaced to form a small lava pad. This sequence was repeated three more times over the following days with lava entering and filling other cracks before reappearing at the surface, in two of the cases farther downslope. Lava emerged from the last crack on September 6, forming a surface flow that initially moved to the north, then to the northeast, at a rate of 400 m/day (1,300 ft/day). The flow slowed thereafter and, between September 12 and 19, the rate of advancement varied, averaging 225 m/day (740 ft/day). The flow front stalled by September 22, but new breakouts behind the flow front began to push forward, overtaking the stalled front on September 29 and advancing 120 m/day (390 ft) between October 3 and 6. [Source: HVO]

 Related Links

• Kilauea Lava Flow Could Affect Thousands on Hawaiʻi Island  September 5, 2014

RAMMASUN Targets Philippines Ground Zero

EXTREME WEATHER & CLIMATIC EVENTS
EXTREME RAIN EVENTS
MAJOR STORM
CATEGORY 3 TYPHOON
SCENARIOS  088, 070, 066, 033, 023
.

Typhoon RAMMASUN forces mass evacuations along Philippines eastern coastal areas

RAMMASUN making first landfall with sustained winds of about 200 km/h and max wind gust of up to 235km/h.

At 10:00UTC the powerful typhoon was positioned near 13.2N 124.0E, located about 420km ESE of Manila, tracking WNW at about 15 km/h, and generating maximum significant wave height of about 15 m, according to FIRE-EARTH Models.

RAMMASUN is expected to make a direct hit on the capital Manila, according to several models. It is forecast to dump up to 320mm of rain on parts of the country at rates of about 25 mm per hour.

It is the strongest storm to slam into the country since super typhoon HAIYAN, which obliterated  just about everything along its path, killing thousands of people and leaving millions more homeless when it crossed the central Philippines in November 2013.

Typhoon RAMMASUN. IR-WV Diff. Satellite Image.  Timed at 08:32UTC. Source: CIMSS

“Extreme” and “Unusual” Geothermal Activity in YNP

SEISMIC HAZARD
HEIGHTENED GLOBAL SEISMICITY
INTENSE GEOTHERMAL ACTIVITY
SCENARIOS 989, 08, 07
.

Extreme Heat Melts Road at YNP

Intense geothermal activity at Yellowstone National Park (YNP) has created hotspots with extreme heat melting roads.

Firehole Lake Drive, which stretches for more than 3 miles between the Old Faithful geyser and Madison Junction, is closed because melting asphalt has turned it into a “soupy mess,” said a YNP spokesman, describing the melting of pavement as both “extreme” and “unusual.”

YNP, home to the Yellowstone Caldera, world’s largest “supervolcano,” covers about 2,220,000 acres with more than 10,000 thermal features and 300 geysers.

YNP officials have been forced to close Firehole Lake Drive as well as access to several geysers and thermal features in the park after extreme heat melted asphalt, turning it into a “soupy mess.” The hotspot reportedly extends  beyond the pavement, with parts of the ground saturated with boiling water. (Image credit: Yellowstone National Park).

Related Links

• Heightened Seismicity Continues Across the U.S. July 8, 2014
• Earthquakes Strike California, New York, Oklahoma… July 6, 2014
• 95 Percent of All Earthquakes Strike U.S. July 2, 2014
• 90 Percent of All Quakes Strike U.S. June 30, 2014
• U.S. West Shaking Like Jelly  June 30, 2014

 

 

NEOGURI Becomes Super Typhoon

EXTREME WEATHER & CLIMATIC EVENTS
SUPER TYPHOON
MASS EVACUATIONS
SCENARIOS 444, 111, 070, 033
.

Super Typhoon NEOGURI racing toward Okinawa with winds of 260 km/h

NEOGURI (TY 08W) has intensified to Super Typhoon force with sustained winds of about 260 km/h and maximum gusts of over 315 km/h. The giant storm was located about 500km S of Naha, the capital city of Okinawa Prefecture, Japan, racing NW at about 30 kph, and generating maximum significant wave height of about 20m at 14:00UTC, July 7, 2014, according to FIRE-EARTH Models.

• Max Sustained Winds: 260 km/h
• Gusts: 315 km/h

NEOGURI is forecast to further intensify packing sustained winds in excess of 290 km/h and maximum gusts of at least 340 km/h as it approaches Okinawa.

Super Typhoon NEOGURI. IR MTSAT-2 satellite image at 12:00UTC, July 7, 2014. Source: Digital Typhoon

Super Typhoon NEOGURI (“The Roadrunner Typhoon.”) VIS-SWIR Satellite Image at 11:32UTC, July 7,2014. Source: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC

Related Links

• Massive Typhoon Targets Japan July 6, 2014

 

Massive Typhoon Targets Japan

EXTREME WEATHER & CLIMATIC EVENTS
INTENSIFYING MAJOR TYPHOON
MASS EVACUATIONS
SCENARIOS 444, 111, 070, 033
.

Typhoon NEOGURI Racing Toward Okinawa

Typhoon NEOGURI (08W) was located about 970km SSE of Naha, the capital city of Okinawa Prefecture, Japan, tracking WNW at about 30 kph, and generating maximum significant wave height of about 15m at 05:00UTC, July 6, 2014, according to FIRE-EARTH Models.

• Max Sustained Winds: 235 km/h
• Gusts: 280 km/h

NEOGURI is forecast to become a super typhoon before reaching Okinawa.

Major Typhoon NEOGURI. IR-WV Diff Satellite Image at 13:32UTC, July 6,2014. Source: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC

Major Typhoon NEOGURI (and its “ghosts”). IR MTSAT-2 satellite image at 06:00UTC. Source: Digital Typhoon

Deadly Storms Attack U.S. Heartland

EXTREME WEATHER & CLIMATIC EVENTS
EXTREME RAIN EVENTS
DEADLY STORMS
SEVERE FLOODING
SCENARIOS 900, 444, 111, 066, 023
.

Tornadoes, high winds, hail and heavy rain batter Midwest

Illinois and battered by fierce storms, as heavy rains caused severe flooding and fires caused by lightning cut power to hundreds of thousands of people and forced hundreds of flight cancellations.

Iowa was hit by 90 mph (145 kph) winds and 4 inch (10 cm) hail, which caused significant damage to vehicles and buildings.  At least one person was killed when a building collapsed in heavy winds, according to local reports.

Tornado outbreaks caused damage in northern Missouri, Nebraska and Iowa, according to SPC.

In Cedar Rapids, Iowa’s second largest city, rescue teams recovered the body of a 17-year-old student who was swept into a storm drain, after torrential rains triggered flooding.

Severe flooding currently occurring in multiple areas along the Missouri and Mississippi rivers.

Whooping Cough Epidemic Declared in California

EMERGING & RE-EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES
SCENARIO 011
HIGHLY CONTAGIOUS RESPIRATORY DISEASES
PERTUSSIS [WHOOPING COUGH]
STATEWIDE EPIDEMIC DECLARED
.

3,458 reported cases, two infant deaths, prompt authorities to declare statewide Pertussis Epidemic in Calif.

The Golden State has reported 3,458 cases of the disease including two infant deaths, so far this year.  The figure is reportedly on track to reach or surpass the 9,163 cases reported in 2010—the last epidemic year.

California health authorities have declared a pertussis epidemic after a 20-folds increase in the number of infections was reported over that last two weeks. Statewide cases soared from about 90 per month to more than 800 since June 1, a two-week period.

Meantime, director of the California Department of Public Health has urged “all pregnant women to get vaccinated.” He has also urged “parents to vaccinate infants as soon as possible.”

Infants aged 12 months or younger face the greatest risk of illness or death from pertussis infection, said CDC.

What’s Pertussis (Whooping Cough) – sourced from CDC

Pertussis, also known as whooping cough, is a highly contagious respiratory disease caused by the bacterium Bordetella pertussis.

These bacteria attach to the cilia (tiny, hair-like extensions) that line part of the upper respiratory system. The bacteria release toxins, which damage the cilia and cause inflammation (swelling).

Pertussis is known for uncontrollable, violent coughing which often makes it hard to breathe. After fits of many coughs, someone with pertussis often needs to take deep breathes which result in a “whooping” sound.

A female infant diagnosed as pertussis. Pertussis is a highly communicable, vaccine-preventable disease due to Bordetella pertussis, a gram-negative coccobacillus, lasting for many weeks and typically afflicts children with severe coughing, whooping, and posttussive vomiting.

Transmission [sourced from CDC]

Pertussis is a highly contagious disease found in humans and is spread from person to person by coughing or sneezing while in close contact with others. Many infants who get pertussis are infected by older siblings, parents or caregivers who might not even know they are carrying the bacteria. Symptoms of pertussis usually develop within 7–10 days after being exposed, but sometimes not for as long as 6 weeks.

While pertussis vaccines are the most effective tool available to prevent this disease, no vaccine is 100% effective. If pertussis is circulating in the community, there is a chance that a fully vaccinated person, of any age, can catch this very contagious disease. For those vaccinated, the infection is usually less severe.

Related Links

• Washington State Declares Pertussis Outbreak an ‘Epidemic’ May 22, 2012
• State of Emergency Declared in Minnesota June 21, 2012
• Whooping Cough: Calif Epidemic Claims 10th Life October 23, 2010

Strong Quake Strikes near Ninetyeast Ridge

SEISMIC HAZARD
HEIGHTENED GLOBAL SEISMICITY
SCENARIOS 08, 07
.

M6.4 Event Occurs SW of Sumatra

Centered at 10.056°S, 91.056°E, the event 0curred at a depth depth of 7.1km (4.4mi), prompting Australian authorities to to issue a tsunami warning for Cocos Island, which has since been canceled.

EQ Details

Magnitude: 6.4Mw

Event Time: 2014-06-14 11:11:00UTC

Location: 10.056°S 91.056°E depth=7.1km (4.4mi)
Nearby Cities:

• 671km (417mi) WNW of West Island, Cocos Islands
• 1418km (881mi) WSW of Bengkulu, Indonesia
• 1439km (894mi) SW of Padang, Indonesia
• 1442km (896mi) SW of Sungaipenuh, Indonesia

TSUNAMI SOURCE AND OBSERVATIONS [.bom.gov.au]
An undersea earthquake of magnitude 6.6 occurred at 9:11 PM EST on Saturday 14
June 2014 [2014-06-14 11:11:00UTC] near (?)  SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN (latitude 10.12S, longitude 90.91E) posing a
tsunami threat to Australia.

EQ Location Map

Source: USGS/EHP

---

IMPORTANT NOTICE: FIRE-EARTH EQ Forecast

The next detailed FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecast will be released together with Bulletin NO. 107  on Monday June 16, 2014.

---

 

 

Significant Quake Strikes NE of Los Angeles Area

SEISMIC HAZARD
HEIGHTENED GLOBAL SEISMICITY
SCENARIOS 08, 07
.

M3.5 earthquake strikes the foot of Ralston Peak, California

Centered at 34.308°N, 117.499°W the quake occurred at a depth of about 11.5km (7.2mi), according to USGS/EHP.

EQ Details

Magnitude: 3.5Mw
Event Time: 2014-06-13 13:35:20 UTC
Location: 34.308°N 117.499°W depth=11.5km (7.2mi)
Nearby Cities:

• 13km (8mi) SW of Oak Hills, California
• 14km (9mi) SSE of Phelan, California
• 20km (12mi) WNW of Crestline, California
• 22km (14mi) SW of Hesperia, California

EQ Location Map

Ralston Peak Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP

FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecasts for California

FIRE-EARTH Science Team has suspended its research on California seismicity, Japan ditto.

Related Links

• Shallow Quake Rattles Los Angeles Area June 2, 2014
• Earthquake Strikes Heart of Los Angeles May 8, 2014
• M4.1 Quake Strike Near Los Angeles March 30, 2014
• M5.1 Quake Strike Near Los Angeles March 29, 2014
• M4.4 Quake Strikes Near Beverly Hills, California March 18, 2014
• M6.9 Quake Strikes West of Eureka, California March 10, 2014

 

Homs After

What Does Collapse Look Like?

Homs city, Syria, after the cessation of fighting between terrorists and government forces May 10, 2014. Photo credit: REUTERS/Ghassan Najjar

Related Links

• 9.3 Million Syrians Displaced March 15, 2014
• Syria Terror: Children “Targeted by Snipers” November 24, 2013
• Polio Outbreak in Syria Risks Spreading October 29, 2013

Emergency Conflagration Act Invoked in Oregon amid Wildfires

EXTREME CLIMATE HAZARDS
DROUGHT
WILDFIRE
MASS EVACUATIONS
SCENARIO 101
.

Gov. Kitzhaber Invokes Emergency Conflagration Act in Response to Wildfires in Central Oregon

Governor Kitzhaber has invoked the Emergency Conflagration Act in response to wildfires burning near Bend in Deschutes County.

Kitzhaber said that a threat to life, safety, and property exists due to the wildfires and that the threat exceeds the fire-fighting capabilities of local fire-fighting personnel and equipment.

He ordered the Oregon State Police and the Oregon State Fire Marshal to mobilize fire resources statewide and coordinate with Fire Defense Chiefs.

“With the fires so close to Bend and the city’s water supply, the State Fire Marshal and the Department of Forestry are working cooperatively with the U.S. Forest Service and the local community to minimize threats to people and property,” said Kitzhaber.

This emergency is declared only for the Two Bulls Wildfire in Deschutes County. Originally two separate fires, Two Bulls Wildfire is being managed as one incident. The fires have consumed about 7,000 acres.

Oregon Department of Forestry Wildfire Blog

Dry weather conditions will continue to keep temperatures in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s and relative humidity dipping below 20%. The main concern for today will be hold the lines on the southern portion of the fire and out of the City of Bend’s watershed, as winds are forecasted to get gusty from the northwest at 10-18 mph in the afternoon as a weak upper level disturbance moves over the area.
• 6,800 acres consisting of heavy brush and timber
• 250 homes threatened with 50 remaining under Level III Evacuation
• No structures lost or damaged
• No injuries
• Cause under investigation
• 5% containment
• 11 helicopters, 46 engines, 11 dozers, and 708 personnel assigned to the fire

Alaska Keeps on Shaking!

SEISMIC HAZARD
HEIGHTENED GLOBAL SEISMICITY
SCENARIOS 08, 07
.

Shaking Alaska: Hundreds of quakes small, medium and ‘large’…

It looks like Alaska suffering from brittle bone disease, or you have blurred vision!

Some 32.3 percent of all earthquakes worldwide that have occurred in the past 7 days struck in or near Alaska. Well, that’s one way of looking at it!

EQ Location Map

7 Days, All Magnitudes Worldwide: 1694 earthquakes. Updated: 2014-06-09 15:31:00UTC.  547 earthquakes in map area. Source: USGS/EHP

1 Day All Magnitudes Worldwide: 153 earthquakes. Updated: 2014-06-09 15:50:03 UTC. 135 earthquakes in map area!

 Related Links

• Alaska Rattled by Earthquake Cluster June 8, 2014

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IMPORTANT NOTICE: FIRE-EARTH EQ Forecast

The next detailed FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecast will be released together with Bulletin NO. 105  on June 10, 2014.

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Massive Explosions Destroy Power Station, Refineries, Oil Tanker

4 Massive Explosions in 10 Days Destroy 2 Refineries, a Power Station, an oil Tanker

Fire crews extinguished a major fire after an explosion ripped through a refinery owned by Sinopec Yangzi Petrochemical Co. in Nanjing, capital of east China’s Jiangsu Province, June 9, 2014.

“Crude oil tanks near the sulfur recovery facility at the refinery exploded Monday noon, and three of eight oil tanks at the site were on fire after the explosion toppled them down. It was not immediately known whether the blast and fire have caused casualties.” (Xinhua/Wang Wei)

Deadly blast destroys “Europe’s worst polluter”

A massive blast at a coal-fired power station outside Kosovo’s capital Pristina has left at least three people dead, and 14 others injured, officials say.

The explosion occurred on Friday at the Kosovo A plant , the country’s second largest, and was felt in the capital Pristina about 10km away.

Kosovo A and B power plants produce more than 90% of the country’s electricity.

The aging Kosovo A plant, the country’s second largest with the capacity of 450 MW, is cited as the worst single-point source of pollution in Europe. The plant was scheduled to be closed by 2017.

The 40-year-old Kosovo A power plant, said to be Europe’s worst polluter, sustained major damage and was shut down after a hydrogen tank exploded on Friday, June 6, 2014. Image credit: AP.

Massive explosion, fire at Shell plant in the Netherlands

A massive explosion at a Shell production plant in Moerdijk, Netherlands, occurred on June 3, 2014.

People living as far as 10 miles away from the plant reported several  enormously loud explosions, which shook the ground like  earthquakes, followed by a major fire.

The explosion and subsequent fire occurred in a reactor of the MSPO-2 installation, which produces styrene monomer and propylene oxide, disabled the unit, said Shell Nederland Chemie BV.

Explosion paralyzes Shell’s Netherlands Moerdijk plant. Image Credit: IlseAngel via Internet.

Japanese oil tanker explodes, sinks off SW Japan coast

A 998-ton Japanese oil tanker, Shoko Maru,  exploded off the coast of Hyogo prefecture, about 450km west of Tokyo, on May 29, 2014.

The vessel slowly listed and sank within hours, said the local coastguard.

Four crew severely burned and the tanker’s captain was reported missing.

Japanese oil tanker, Shoko Maru, is sinking off the SW coast of Japan after a large explosion and subsequent fire sent towering columns of of poisonous smoke into the air. Photo credit: Reuters

 Related Links

• If Anything Can Explode, Leak, Contaminate… January 12, 2014
• Officials ‘Baffled’ by LNG Explosion in Washington April 6, 2014

Apocalyptic Clouds Over Beijing Prompt Rainstorm Warning

EXTREME WEATHER & CLIMATIC EVENTS
EXTREME RAIN EVENTS
SEVERE FLOODING
MEGA DISASTERS
MASS DISPLACEMENTS
SCENARIOS  444, 070, 023
.

Beijing issues rainstorm warning

Dark clouds shroud buildings in Shijingshan District of Beijing on Friday, June 6, 2014. Local meteorological agency issued a rainstorm warning in the morning. (Xinhua/Li Xin). More images…

Rainstorms Ravage South China

Meantime, rainstorms continued to ravage southwest China, prompting authorities to issue a warning for Chongqing Municipality, reported Xinhua.

“At least nine people had died as of 8 a.m. Friday after downpours swept Chongqing since Saturday, the local bureau of civil affairs said in a statement.”

Extreme Rain Events have affected about one million people, leaving 124,500 homeless.

“The rainstorms, which have caused the collapse of 7,300 houses and damaged 27,400 hectares of crops, have led to direct economic losses of 500 million yuan (80 million U.S. dollars),” said the report.

Earlier today …

MASS EVACUATIONS FORCED BY MEGA FLOODING IN SOUTH CHINA

The latest round of Extreme Rain Events have triggered major flooding across south China affecting about 2 million people, and leaving at least two dozen dead in Guizhou and Sichuan provinces as well as Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region.

In Guizhou Province alone, flooding has severely affected more than 1.2 million people in 44 counties forcing mass evacuation of at least 88,000 people. At least 18,000 homes were damaged or destroyed, said the Guizhou Civil Affairs Department, reported Xinhua.

Power, water and communications lines were cut off across most of Guizhou Province, said reports.

Earlier this week …

• Extreme Rain Events, Flooding Devastate SW China  June 3, 2014

Other Related Links

• Deadly Floods Affect 6 Million People in China May 27, 2014
• China Battered by Extreme Rain Events, Deadly Floods, Landslides  May 24, 2014

EMR Kill Dozens, Displace Tens of Thousands in Sri Lanka

EXTREME WEATHER & CLIMATIC EVENTS
EXTREME MONSOON RAINS
MASS DISPLACEMENT
SCENARIOS  070, 023
.

Extreme Monsoon Rains (EMR), Severe Flooding Devastate Large Swathes of Sri Lanka

Flooding and landslides have left dozens of people dead and tens of thousands of others displaced in western and central parts of Sri Lanka.

Severe flash flooding and mudslides triggered by unusually intense monsoon rains have toppled buildings and washed away bridges and destroyed much of the public infrastructure, forcing hundreds of school closures throughout the country, reports said.

The government has deployed both the navy and air force to help with rescue operations in the affected areas, said reports

Sri Lankan men stand on debris of damaged houses in Mathugama, on the outskirts of Colombo, Sri Lanka, Tuesday, June 3, 2014. Many people have died in Sri Lanka from two days of floods and mudslides triggered by unusually heavy monsoon rains, officials said Tuesday. (AP Photo/Eranga Jayawardena)

Alaska Flights Grounded amid Continued Activity at Pavlof

VOLCANIC HAZARD
SCENARIO 07
.

Regional Airline Cancels Alaska Flights

Plumes of smoke, steam and ash from Pavlof continue to reach heights  of about 7,500m (24,000 feet),  according to Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO).

Meantime, PenAir, a regional airline, canceled flights from Anchorage to  Cold Bay and Dutch Harbor on the Aleutian Islands on Wednesday.

Pavlof eruption with lava fountaining, early June 3, 2014, as viewed from Cold Bay. Photo credit: AVO/ Robert Stacy.

So far, no ash has reached any of local communities, according to AVO.

LAST ACTIVITY REPORT: ALASKA VOLCANO OBSERVATORY

Thursday, June 5, 2014 5:16 AM AKDT (Thursday, June 5, 2014 13:16 UTC)
UPDATED by FIRE-EARTH at 13:35UTC

PAVLOF VOLCANO (VNUM #312030)
55°25’2″ N 161°53’37” W, Summit Elevation 8261 ft (2518 m)
Current Volcano Alert Level: WATCH
Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE

Two strong explosions were recorded in seismic data early this morning (10:05 and 10:45 UTC; 02:05 and 02:45 AKDT) at Pavlof. Lightning was detected by the WWLLN system but there is no indication of higher altitude ash in satellite data. Meteorological cloud tops are up to 29,000 ft. ASL and winds are to the west-southwest.

Wednesday, June 4, 2014 12:14 PM AKDT (Wednesday, June 4, 2014 20:14 UTC)

The eruption of Pavlof Volcano continues. Seismicity remains stable and unchanged in the past 24 hours. Persistent elevated surface temperatures were observed in satellite images. FAA web camera views yesterday afternoon showed a towering steam plume above the vent and lower-level ash from pyroclastic flow activity on the north flank. Wind direction has shifted in the past 24 hours to a more westerly direction and recent satellite views show a plume rich in SO2 gas, steam, and minor ash extending variably between 30 and 100 km downwind and passing over Cold Bay. There have been no reports of ash fall in Cold Bay or any other community. Incandescence from lava fountaining was visible in early morning web camera images, however low-level weather clouds obscure more recent views.

Alerts at Other Alaska Volcanoes

• Shishaldin: Color Code: ORANGE/ Alert Level WATCH
• Cleveland: Color Code YELLOW / Alert Level ADVISORY
• Veniaminof: Color Code YELLOW / Alert Level ADVISORY

Index map showing location of Pavlof volcano and other Alaska Peninsula volcanoes.  Credit: Janet Schaefer/AVO

Related Links

• Eruption of Pavlof Continues June 4, 2014
• Pavlof Eruption Intensifies June 26, 2013
• Second Alaska Volcano Erupts Posted on May 16, 2013
• Volcanoes in a Dozen Global Regions Erupting  May 19, 2013

Eruption of Pavlof Continues

VOLCANIC HAZARD
SCENARIO 07
.

Pavlof Eruption Ongoing, Conditions Could Worsen Rapidly: AVO

Intense activity at Pavlov Volcano prompted the authorities to issue a red alert on Monday, the first in five years. The alert level has since been changed to “ORANGE.”

Plume of smoke and ash reached as high as 7,500 meters on Tuesday; however, seismic activity has decreased over the past 12 hours to much lower levels than that of Monday, Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) reported.

“Recent satellite data and web camera views of the eruption plume indicate that there are now two distinct parts of the plume. The part of the plume that reaches high above the volcano appears to be mainly steam and gas with minor ash present, extending south of the volcano. Additionally, pyroclastic flow activity on the north flank is producing diffuse ash emissions that result in areas of hazy air, with variable concentrations of ash below 10,000 ft.”

Ongoing pyroclastic and lahar activity have created hazardous conditions on the north flank and north side drainages heading on the volcano, said AVO, adding that large, more ash-rich plumes could develop with little or no warning.

Lava fountaining from the summit vent on Pavlof. View is from the southwest. Ash and steam clouds rise up to about 20,000 ft. ASL. Date: June 2, 2014 11:36 AM. Photo credit: AVO/ R. Kremer

Volcano: Pavlof (VNUM #312030)

Current Volcano Alert Level: WATCH
Previous Volcano Alert Level: WARNING

Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE
Previous Aviation Color Code: RED

Issued: Tuesday, June 3, 2014, 5:54 PM AKDT (20140604/01:54UTC)
Source: Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO)
Notice Number: 2014/A8
Location: N 55 deg 25 min, W 161 deg 53 min
Elevation: 8261 ft (2,518 m)
Area: Alaska Peninsula, Alaska

Alerts at Other Alaska Volcanoes

• Shishaldin: Color Code: ORANGE/ Alert Level WATCH
• Cleveland: Color Code YELLOW / Alert Level ADVISORY
• Veniaminof: Color Code YELLOW / Alert Level ADVISORY

Index map showing location of Pavlof volcano and other Alaska Peninsula volcanoes.  Credit: Janet Schaefer/AVO

Location of Cleveland volcano and other Aleutian volcanoes with respect to nearby cities and towns.  Credit: Janet Schaefer/AVO

Related Links

• Pavlof Eruption Intensifies June 26, 2013
• Second Alaska Volcano Erupts Posted on May 16, 2013
• Volcanoes in a Dozen Global Regions Erupting  May 19, 2013

Killer Sandstorm Engulfs Iran’s Capital

EXTREME WEATHER & CLIMATIC EVENTS
MAJOR SANDSTORM
SCENARIO 067
.

Mega Sandstorm Whipped by Hurricane-force Winds Kills 6, Injures 30 in Tehran

At least 6 people were killed and more than 30 others injured after a freak sandstorm, whipped by winds of about 110 km/h, engulfed large parts of the Iranian capital.

Three of the victims died as the uprooted tree fell on them and another person fell down from a rooftop, AP reported an official as saying.

At least 6 people were killed and more than 30 others injured after a major sandstorm engulfed the Iranian capital, Tehran.  Photo dated Monday, June 2, 2014. (Photo credit: Xinhua/Hemmat Khahi). More photos…

The freak storm knocked down trees and cut power and phone lines, plunging the capital into darkness during the afternoon rush hour.

Temperatures plunged from 33°C to 18°C, said the state media.

 

Significant Quakes Rattle California

SEISMIC HAZARD
HEIGHTENED GLOBAL SEISMICITY
SCENARIO 08
.

 Earthquakes Strike California, Montana

 At least 6 earthquakes have struck California region between 23:54:19 UTC on June 2 and 13:51:55 UTC on June 3, 2014.

• M2.6, 51km NE of Kernville, California 2014-06-03 13:51:55 UTC at a depth of 0.1 km
• M3.8, 1km NE of San Simeon, California 2014-06-03 08:53:43 UTC at a depth of 4.9 km
• M3.7, 12km NE of San Simeon, California 2014-06-03 08:53:30 UTC at a depth of 6.8 km
• M2.5, 15km ESE of Ridgemark, California 2014-06-03 06:53:01 UTC at a depth of 8.4 km
• M2.7, 2km N of Ashland, California 2014-06-03 06:05:28 UTC at a depth of 5.3 km
• M4.1, 28km SSW of Ferndale, California 2014-06-02 23:54:19 UTC at a depth of 18.4 km

[Details and map sourced from USGS/EHP ]

Related Links

• Shallow Quake Rattles Los Angeles Area June 2, 2014

FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecasts for California

Due to the reasons explained previously on this blog, FIRE-EARTH Science Team has suspended its research on California seismicity, Japan ditto.

Californians Lose Collective Life Insurance Policy

EXTREME WEATHER & CLIMATIC EVENTS
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
ZERO SNOWPACK
CRITICALLY LOW GROUNDWATER LEVELS
WATER FAMINE
MAJOR CROP DISASTERS
DESTRUCTIVE WILDFIRES
SCENARIOS 03, 04, 101
MULTIPLE STATES OF EMERGENCY
.

Golden State Loses Snowpack

California has lost all of its snow cover, as of June 3, 2014. Snowpack provides about a third of the water used by California’s cities and farms.

Source: Department of Water resources/ California Data Exchange Center

Impact of Drought on Calif Agriculture

California’s drought could cost farmers at least $2billion this year, forcing them to leave fallow more than a million acres of land.

Tens of thousands of full time and seasonal jobs could be lost as a result of the drought, now in its third year, described by officials as catastrophic.

 Crop Disasters in Calif

All of the 58 counties in the country’s most populous and 3rd largest state have now been declared crop disaster areas at least once this year.

Last Month …

Vital groundwater provides up to 60% of California’s water supply during droughts

California groundwater resources are at historically low levels, and recent groundwater levels are more than 100 feet below previous historic lows in some parts of the state, according to a recent report released by the California Department of Water Resources.

About 30 million Californians, over three quarters of the state’s population, receives at least part of their drinking water from groundwater, said California Water Foundation.

Groundwater is the only supply available for some regions during drought, and it’s critical to the state’s agricultural economy.

Drought causes water famine leading to crop disasters. It degrades water quality, and leads to surface and groundwater level declines, land subsidence, soil erosion, intense wildfires, humongous dust storms, and spread of disease.

Related Links

• Southern Sierra Loses Snow Cover May 27, 2014
• California’s Snow Story: Going, Going … May 21, 2014
• Calif SWEQ Drops to 0.6 Inch on May 20, 2014
• California Running Out of Snow May 17, 2014
• Severe – Exceptional Drought Plagues 100% of California May 16, 2014
• California Groundwater Levels 100 Feet Below Previous Historic Lows May 7, 2014

Two More Significant Quakes Strike Near OK City

SEISMIC HAZARD
HEIGHTENED GLOBAL SEISMICITY
SCENARIO 08
.

Earthquakes Continue to Rattle Oklahomans

At least 11 quakes measuring magnitude 2.5 or greater have struck Oklahoma since May 27, 2014.  See below for a list of the reported quakes.

Oklahoma Earthquakes, 7 Days, Magnitude 2.5 or greater. Source: USGS/EHP

12 earthquakes in map area

M3.7 2km E of Choctaw, Oklahoma 2014-06-01 19:54:18 UTC at a depth of 10.3 km
M2.7 2km E of Choctaw, Oklahoma 2014-06-01 15:17:02 UTC at a depth of 6.4 km
M3.0 7km SSW of Boley, Oklahoma 2014-06-01 05:50:09 UTC at a depth of 5.0 km
M2.7 9km NNW of Caldwell, Kansas 2014-06-01 00:38:37 UTC at a depth of 6.2 km
M2.8 16km WSW of Pawnee, Oklahoma 2014-05-31 15:45:46 UTC at a depth of 5.0 km
M3.9 2km ESE of Choctaw, Oklahoma 2014-05-31 10:18:06 UTC at a depth of 5.0 km
M3.2 9km NNW of Enid, Oklahoma 2014-05-30 22:44:56 UTC at a depth of 2.3 km
M2.8 8km NNW of Caldwell, Kansas 2014-05-30 22:00:49 UTC at a depth of 3.6 km
M3.5 6km NW of Helena, Oklahoma 2014-05-30 21:42:02 UTC at a depth of 3.7 km
M3.3 3km WSW of Medford, Oklahoma 2014-05-30 14:32:16 UTC at a depth of 2.4 km
M2.8 6km NNE of Medford, Oklahoma 2014-05-27 17:56:32 UTC at a depth of 1.3 km
M2.7 16km W of Stillwater, Oklahoma 2014-05-27 02:49:32 UTC at a depth of 6.5 km

[NOTE: Some of the recent earthquakes that have occurred in Oklahoma may have been downgraded/ omitted. Editor]

Related Links

• Significant Quakes Strike Alaska, Hawaii, Oklahoma May 10, 2014
• Another Swarm of Earthquakes Strikes Oklahoma May 9, 2014
• More Quakes Rattle Oklahomans April 21, 2014
• M4.0 Strikes near Perry, Oklahoma April 20, 2014