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Archive for the ‘tokyo earthquake forecast’ Category

Japan Earthquake Forecast

Posted by feww on February 14, 2012

Japan Region Earthquakes: Currently Valid Forecasts by FIRE-EARTH

A Note to Seismologists at Tokyo University and Tohoku University, Japan



Staff at Research Center for Prediction of Earthquakes & Volcanic Eruptions, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University are strongly advised to focus on probability of the next major earthquake in China.

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Large Earthquake Could Strike Tokyo Area

Megaqauke measuring up to 9.2Mw could strike Tokyo / Chiba Area:  FIRE-EARTH Forecast [Posted by feww on March 16, 2011]

Details of Earthquake Forecast:

  • Magnitude: 8.8Mw [Uncertainty= ±0.4Mw]
  • Location: 50 – 150km radius of Tokyo Bay Area
  • Depth: 24km [Uncertainty= N/A]
  • Occurrence Time:
    • Between now and November 2011 [Probability = 0.70]
    • Between December 2011 and October 2012 [Probability = 0.64]
    • Between November 2012  and December 2016 [Probability = 0.78]

Tokyo University Seismologists

70% chance of big Tokyo earthquake ‘within 4 yrs’

The Yomiuri Shimbun —  There is a 70 percent probability the Tokyo metropolitan area will be hit directly by a strong earthquake of magnitude-7 level within four years, according to data compiled by a University of Tokyo research team.

The preliminary calculations conducted by a team from the university’s Earthquake Research Institute were based on intensified seismic activity in the area after the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11.

The findings are more dire than a similar estimate by the central government’s Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, which states there is a 70 percent chance a quake of the same scale will hit the southern Kanto region, including the metropolitan area, within 30 years.

The central government’s Central Disaster Management Council assumes 18 different hypocenters of magnitude-7 level earthquakes, such as in southern Ibaraki Prefecture and the Tachikawa fault zone.

If a magnitude-7.3 earthquake occurs directly under northern Tokyo Bay, as many as 11,000 people are expected to die and about 850,000 buildings to be rendered totally unusable or destroyed by fire.

According to the Meteorological Agency’s observations, after the March 11 disaster, earthquakes of magnitude 3 to 6 occurred an average of 1.48 times a day in the metropolitan area through December. This was about five times the pre-disaster average.

Prof. Naoshi Hirata of the university’s research institute and others based their calculations on the rule of thumb that the frequency of earthquakes is inversely proportional to their strength. For every increase in magnitude of one, the frequency of their occurrence falls by 90 percent.

The metropolitan area was hit by the magnitude-8 level Great Kanto Earthquake in 1923. Five weaker but still serious earthquakes of magnitude-7 level also hit an area extending from southern Ibaraki Prefecture to the Uraga Channel over a period of about 120 years.

The government’s earthquake headquarters obtained its quake estimate data based on the intervals of these quakes in the past. The data did not incorporate the increased seismic activity after the March 11 disaster.

Experts believe seismic activity in the metropolitan area has been intensified by changes in the movements of the Earth’s crust since March 11.

“Intensified seismic activity will continue from several to 10 more years,” Hirata said. “It’s highly probable a strong quake with a magnitude of about 7 will occur during that time.  (Jan. 24, 2012)

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M6.4 Shock Strikes Off Fukushima Coast

Posted by feww on March 29, 2011

Megaquakes could split Honshu island

Strong shock strikes about 126 km  ENE from Iwaki, Japan

FIRE-EARTH believes the recent strong shocks may be foreshocks to one or more “Earth Shattering” Megaquakes striking the region. Up to 4 Megaquakes [M ≥8.0] Could Strike Japan Region by 2015. The earthquakes could potentially split Honshu island.

See earlier earthquake forecasts posted at Japan Earthquakes: FIRE-EARTH Forecasts and Recent History.

The following quake details has just been released by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

Earthquake Information (Information on seismic intensity at each site)
Issued at 19:59 JST 29 Mar 2011

Magnitude: 6.4
Depth:  very shallow
Location: 37.4ºN 142.4ºE
Occurred at 19:54 JST 29 Mar 2011
Region Name:   Fukushima-ken Oki (Offshore Fukushima Prefecture, Honshu, Japan)

Distances (USGS)

  • 126 km (78 miles) ENE (72°) from Iwaki, Honshu, Japan
  • 152 km (94 miles) SE (127°) from Sendai, Honshu, Japan
  • 161 km (100 miles) ESE (102°) from Fukushima, Honshu, Japan
  • 296 km (184 miles) NE (48°) from TOKYO, Japan

Earthquake Location Map

10-degree Map Centered at 35°N,140°E

Source: USGS

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Posted in japan earthquake map, Japan Earthquakes 2011, tohoku earthquake, Tohoku earthquake map, tokyo earthquake, tokyo earthquake forecast | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »

Strong Quake Strikes Near Shizuoka, Japan

Posted by feww on August 11, 2009

Magnitude 6.4 Quake strikes Near Shizuoka, the South Coast of Honshu, Japan

A strong earthquake measuring 6.4Mw occurred about 30km SSW of Shizuoka, Japan, USGS reported, striking at a depth of 30km at 20:07:07 UTC on Monday.

The mainshock was followed by a cluster of a dozen aftershocks, the largest of which has measured about 3.9 so far.

Japan’s broadcaster, NHK, reported that the quake had rattled buildings in Tokyo, and that bullet train services had been halted pending track inspection.

10-degree Map Centered at 35°N,140°E

us2009kdb4 shizuoka
Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS

Earthquake Details

  • Magnitude: 6.4
  • Date-Time:
    • Monday, August 10, 2009 at 20:07:07 UTC
    • Tuesday, August 11, 2009 at 05:07:07 AM at epicenter
  • Location: 34.727°N, 138.278°E
  • Depth: 26.8 km (16.7 miles)
  • Distances
    • 30 km (20 miles) SSW of Shizuoka, Honshu, Japan
    • 55 km (35 miles) E of Hamamatsu, Honshu, Japan
    • 110 km (70 miles) SSW of Kofu, Honshu, Japan
    • 170 km (105 miles) SW of TOKYO, Japan
  • Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 9.7 km (6.0 miles); depth +/- 3.6 km (2.2 miles)
  • Parameters: NST= 74, Nph= 75, Dmin=708 km, Rmss=1.24 sec, Gp= 50°,  M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=6
  • Source:  USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
  • Event: ID us2009kdb4

Japan Meteorological Agency seismic intensity scale

20090811050941353-110507 jma  seismic intensity
The map shows the regions where the maximum observed Seismic Intensity was 3 or greater [see date and time.]
JMA Seismic Intensity scale is divided into 10 categories: Scales  0 to 4, 5 lower, 5 upper, 6 lower, 6 upper and 7. For an explanation of the intensity see: Japan Meteorological Agency seismic intensity scale. Image Copyright Japan Meteorological Agency.

Tsunami Advisory

Japan’s Meteorological agency, which registered the quake as 6.6, issued an initial tsunami advisory based on its observation at on august 111, 2009 at 07:13 local time, and reported up to 60cm waves at Yaizu. The initial tsunami advisory was  canceled soon after. No tsunami damage was reported.

Initial Tsunami Observation

04_11_00_20090811062229 jma 1
Copyright Japan Meteorological Agency

Maximum Tsunami Observation –
Tsunami Information NUMBER 6

Issued at 06:22 JST 11 Aug 2009

04_11_00_20090811062229 JMA
Copyright Japan Meteorological Agency

A Seismically Intense Day or So!

In a 35-hr period between August 9,  2009,  at 10:55:56  and August 10,  at 20:07:08  5 strong to powerful earthquake struck the Pacific Ring of Fire and Andaman Islands.

Items listed are in order of  L to R:)   Magnitude, Date, Time, Latitude (degrees), Longitude (degrees), Depth, Locatoion

  • 7.1   2009/08/09   10:55:56    33.144   138.040   303.1     IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
  • 6.6   2009/08/10   04:06:32    -11.596   166.093   42.8      SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
  • 5.7   2009/08/10   17:46:28    -3.127     143.179    35.0      NEAR NORTH COAST OF NEW GUINEA, P.N.G.
  • 7.6   2009/08/10   19:55:39    14.013    92.923       33.1      ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
  • 6.4   2009/08/10   20:07:08   34.727   138.278    26.8       NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

usgs-wall st map
Source: USGS/WSJ on line. The map doesn’t include the Mag 7.1 Izu Isles quake

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Posted in Japan Tsunami Information, seismic event report, Seismic Hazard, tokyo earthquake forecast, Tsunami Observation | Tagged: , , , , | 4 Comments »