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Archive for the ‘tokyo earthquake’ Category

Japan Earthquake Forecast

Posted by feww on February 14, 2012

Japan Region Earthquakes: Currently Valid Forecasts by FIRE-EARTH

A Note to Seismologists at Tokyo University and Tohoku University, Japan



Staff at Research Center for Prediction of Earthquakes & Volcanic Eruptions, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University are strongly advised to focus on probability of the next major earthquake in China.

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Large Earthquake Could Strike Tokyo Area

Megaqauke measuring up to 9.2Mw could strike Tokyo / Chiba Area:  FIRE-EARTH Forecast [Posted by feww on March 16, 2011]

Details of Earthquake Forecast:

  • Magnitude: 8.8Mw [Uncertainty= ±0.4Mw]
  • Location: 50 – 150km radius of Tokyo Bay Area
  • Depth: 24km [Uncertainty= N/A]
  • Occurrence Time:
    • Between now and November 2011 [Probability = 0.70]
    • Between December 2011 and October 2012 [Probability = 0.64]
    • Between November 2012  and December 2016 [Probability = 0.78]

Tokyo University Seismologists

70% chance of big Tokyo earthquake ‘within 4 yrs’

The Yomiuri Shimbun —  There is a 70 percent probability the Tokyo metropolitan area will be hit directly by a strong earthquake of magnitude-7 level within four years, according to data compiled by a University of Tokyo research team.

The preliminary calculations conducted by a team from the university’s Earthquake Research Institute were based on intensified seismic activity in the area after the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11.

The findings are more dire than a similar estimate by the central government’s Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, which states there is a 70 percent chance a quake of the same scale will hit the southern Kanto region, including the metropolitan area, within 30 years.

The central government’s Central Disaster Management Council assumes 18 different hypocenters of magnitude-7 level earthquakes, such as in southern Ibaraki Prefecture and the Tachikawa fault zone.

If a magnitude-7.3 earthquake occurs directly under northern Tokyo Bay, as many as 11,000 people are expected to die and about 850,000 buildings to be rendered totally unusable or destroyed by fire.

According to the Meteorological Agency’s observations, after the March 11 disaster, earthquakes of magnitude 3 to 6 occurred an average of 1.48 times a day in the metropolitan area through December. This was about five times the pre-disaster average.

Prof. Naoshi Hirata of the university’s research institute and others based their calculations on the rule of thumb that the frequency of earthquakes is inversely proportional to their strength. For every increase in magnitude of one, the frequency of their occurrence falls by 90 percent.

The metropolitan area was hit by the magnitude-8 level Great Kanto Earthquake in 1923. Five weaker but still serious earthquakes of magnitude-7 level also hit an area extending from southern Ibaraki Prefecture to the Uraga Channel over a period of about 120 years.

The government’s earthquake headquarters obtained its quake estimate data based on the intervals of these quakes in the past. The data did not incorporate the increased seismic activity after the March 11 disaster.

Experts believe seismic activity in the metropolitan area has been intensified by changes in the movements of the Earth’s crust since March 11.

“Intensified seismic activity will continue from several to 10 more years,” Hirata said. “It’s highly probable a strong quake with a magnitude of about 7 will occur during that time.  (Jan. 24, 2012)

Posted in Japan earthquake forecast, tokyo earthquake, tokyo earthquake forecast | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

M6.4 Shock Strikes Off Fukushima Coast

Posted by feww on March 29, 2011

Megaquakes could split Honshu island

Strong shock strikes about 126 km  ENE from Iwaki, Japan

FIRE-EARTH believes the recent strong shocks may be foreshocks to one or more “Earth Shattering” Megaquakes striking the region. Up to 4 Megaquakes [M ≥8.0] Could Strike Japan Region by 2015. The earthquakes could potentially split Honshu island.

See earlier earthquake forecasts posted at Japan Earthquakes: FIRE-EARTH Forecasts and Recent History.

The following quake details has just been released by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

Earthquake Information (Information on seismic intensity at each site)
Issued at 19:59 JST 29 Mar 2011

Magnitude: 6.4
Depth:  very shallow
Location: 37.4ºN 142.4ºE
Occurred at 19:54 JST 29 Mar 2011
Region Name:   Fukushima-ken Oki (Offshore Fukushima Prefecture, Honshu, Japan)

Distances (USGS)

  • 126 km (78 miles) ENE (72°) from Iwaki, Honshu, Japan
  • 152 km (94 miles) SE (127°) from Sendai, Honshu, Japan
  • 161 km (100 miles) ESE (102°) from Fukushima, Honshu, Japan
  • 296 km (184 miles) NE (48°) from TOKYO, Japan

Earthquake Location Map

10-degree Map Centered at 35°N,140°E

Source: USGS

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Posted in japan earthquake map, Japan Earthquakes 2011, tohoku earthquake, Tohoku earthquake map, tokyo earthquake, tokyo earthquake forecast | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »

Large Swarm of Quakes Strike Near Honshu, Japan

Posted by feww on December 17, 2009

Earthquake Measuring M5.3 Strikes Eastern Honshu, Japan

The earthquake was preceded by a large swarm of smaller quakes which began striking SSW of Tokyo, near the south coast of Honshu, early Thursday Japan time.

JMA has recorded about 5 dozen quakes measuring 2.0 to 5.3 Mw in the Izu-Hanto region. It appears that submarine volcanic eruptions may be occurring.

The northern Izu Island arc is a tectonically active region, where several destructive interplate [and intraplate] earthquakes, severe earthquake swarms and volcanic eruptions have previously occurred.

Details of the Latest Quake

10-degree Map Centered at 35°N,140°E

Earthquake Location Map. E
arthquake location marked in blue also show the area where the swarm is striking. Source of the original map: USGS/EHP. Enhancement: FEWW.

  • Magnitude: 5.3
  • Date-Time:  Thursday, December 17, 2009 at 20:41:27 UTC  [Friday, December 18, 2009 at 05:41:27 AM at epicenter]
  • Location: 36.392°N, 139.487°E
  • Depth: 63 km (39.1 miles)
  • Distances:
    • 40 km (25 miles) E of Maebashi, Honshu, Japan
    • 85 km (50 miles) NNW of TOKYO, Japan
    • 90 km (55 miles) W of Mito, Honshu, Japan
    • 115 km (70 miles) NE of Kofu, Honshu, Japan
  • Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 5.3 km (3.3 miles); depth +/- 5.8 km (3.6 miles)
  • Parameters NST=159, Nph=159, Dmin=365.5 km, Rmss=0.73 sec, Gp= 97°, M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=7
  • Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
  • Event ID: us2009qhbf

Earthquake Location Maps. Seismicity since December 17, 2009. Source: JMA. Images may be subject to copyright.

FEWW Comment: Regarding the FEWW Forecast of seismicity in Tokyo Bay Area, on November 20, 2009 Fire Earth said: “A tremendous amount of stress energy is unaccounted for in the area near the forecast epicenter.”

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Posted in destructive interplate earthquakes, earthquake, northern Izu Island arc, quake swarm, tokyo earthquake | Tagged: , , , , | 1 Comment »

FEWW Earthquake WARNING: JAPAN Region

Posted by feww on September 4, 2009

FEWW Earthquake Warning:

Large Earthquake Forecast in Japan Region

A large earthquake east of Honshu, Japan Region,  may be imminent (in the next few hours).

10-degree Map Centered at 35°N,140°E

latest quakes in Japan 04-09-09 -- 02-30-29 UTC
Location Map of latest earthquakes in Japan. Source: USGS

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Posted in earthquake warning Honshu, large earthquakes, Tokyo Bay earthquake, tokyo earthquake | Tagged: , , , | 3 Comments »