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The Storm has dumped as much as 800mm of rain in parts of northwestern Philippines, causing widespread flooding, triggering landslides, killing at least a dozen people, and forcing about 110,000 people to flee their homes.
Tropical Storm AERE – IR Satellite Image (8km Res). Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.
Current Details (FIRE-EARTH estimates)
Position: 18.5°N, 122.2°E
Maximum sustained winds : 80 kp/h
Maximum wind gusts: 90 kp/h
Movement: North at 15 kp/h
The storm is expected to reach to about 170km west of Naha, Okinawa in the next 70 hours.
Cyclone BINGIZA captured by AIRS on AQUA Satellite
Cyclone Bingiza. An infrared satellite image of Cyclone Bingiza dated Feb. 14 at 10:23 UTC (5:23 a.m. EST) shows the storm covering northern Madagascar. ” Although the storm is still at hurricane strength, no eye is visible in this infrared image. Strongest thunderstorms and coldest (-63F/-52C), highest cloud tops appear in purple. Bingiza is moving west and entering the Mozambique Channel.” Source: NASA/JPL
Full extent of the damage caused by Cyclone BINGIZA is not yet known.
“‘We expect this to be a Type 2 emergency, with over 100,000 people affected by wind damage and/or flooding, and over 30,000 severely affected,’ CARE International, an NGO focusing on poverty eradication, said in an emergency alert.” Said a report.
Cyclone BINGIZA Strengthens to a Cat 3A Storm with Sustained Winds of About 190km/hr
Cyclone BINGIZA – IR Satellite image (NHC Enhancement). Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.
At 09:00UTC Tropical Cyclone BINGIZA (TC13S) was located about 700km ENE of ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. The cyclone is moving westward at an average speed of about 10km/hr.
TC BINGIZA – IR Satellite image. Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.
At 09:00UTC on February 12, TROPICAL CYCLONE BINGIZA (TC 13S) was located approx 815km (Position near 15.7ºS 53.6ºE) ENE of Antananarivo, Madagascar moving slowly southward in a weak steering environment, JTWC said.
BINGIZA is forecast to strengthen to a category 1 storm with sustained winds of near 150km/hr before making landfall.
Massive Cyclone YASI Could Strike Queensland With 200+ km/hr Winds
Tropical Cyclone YASI was located about 2,000km east of Cairns, Australia at 11:00UTC on January 31, 2011. The cyclone was tracking west at speeds of about 30km/hr.
Details of Cyclone YASI (TC11P) at 11:00UTC on January 31, 2011
Location: 2,000km east of Cairns, Australia
Position: 14.0S 161.0E
Max Sustained Winds: 150km/hr
Wind Gusts: 200km/hr
Source: FIRE-EARTH estimates (based on data provided by JTWC and others)
If the ‘Devil’ were a cyclone, it would probably look like YASI
Tropical Cyclone YASI – IR Satellite image. Source: MTSAT-2 via Digital Typhoon. Remnants of ex-cyclone Anthony are seen moving across Queensland. Click images to enlarge.
“The operators of Brisbane’s Wivenhoe Dam could be risking more flooding because of their refusal to immediately release unneeded water from the dam, according to engineers and hydrologists.” Said a report.
Virgin Islands, El Salvador, Dominican Republic Hit by Tropical Wave
A tropical wave moving across the Caribbean has caused extensive flooding in Virgin Islands, El Salvador and Dominican Republic.
In the Dominican Republic, where there was at least one storm-related death, the authorities were forced to evacuate at least 3,000 people, local reports say.
The so called ”Tropical Disturbance 10,’ which is currently located between Jamaica and the tip of Honduras, and is moving westward at about 20km/hr (13 mph), has been producing strong showers with thunderstorms, and choppy sea condition with waves of up to 2.5m (7 feet).
There is a high probability (60%) this system could become a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, NWS said.
GOES EAST – IR Satellite Image (AVNCOLOR Enhancement). Click image to update.
Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Atlantic and East Pacific Oceans
Large, Well Organized, Low Pressure System 975 Miles WSW of Cape Verde Islands Moving NW at 15 MPH
A large, well-organized, low pressure system located about 1,000 miles WSW of the Cape Verde islands is moving northwestward at up to 15 MPH, NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center said.
Updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant. Click image to enlarge and update.
The system could become a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours, with a probability of 60 percent, the center added.
The system “is producing widespread cloudiness along with some showers and thunderstorms.”
Satellite images show a second system tailing the first.
Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Atlantic and East Pacific Oceans
Indian Authorities Evacuate up to 50,000 as TC Laila makes landfall
Up to 50,000 people have been evacuated from the coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh as Cyclone Laila approaches southern India.
“Already the Andhra Pradesh coast is being battered by high tides and fierce winds. Even though the windfall is expected only in the evening, the waves and the winds have already caused extensive damage in coastal districts, where trees have been uprooted, cars smashed and roads damaged. Communication and power supplies have also been disrupted and air and train services have come to a halt,” a government official said.
At least 13 people have already been killed in the past 36 hours as a result of torrential rains, according to various News Bulletins.
Tropical Cyclone Laila. Source of image: CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Group. Click image to enlarge.
TC Laila has maxi,u, sustained winds of about 92.5km/hr with gusts of up to 120km/hr as of 12:00UTC, 20 May 2010, according to JTWC, CIMSS and other sources.
So far the most damaging aspect of TC Laila has been its accompanying torrential rains that have pounded the state Tamil Nadu.
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Serial No 1,746. Starting April 2010, each entry on this blog has a unique serial number. If any of the numbers are missing, it may mean that the corresponding entry has been blocked by Google/the authorities in your country. Please drop us a line if you detect any anomaly/missing number(s).
Cyclone 24S powers up, renamed Tropical Storm Sean
The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), instrument that flies aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite from April 22 at 17:29 UTC (1:29 p.m. EDT) showed some strong, high, cold thunderstorms around Sean’s center.
Infrared imagery is false-colored and higher cloud tops of stronger storms are depicted in purple. Sean showed a circular area of high, strong thunderstorms around his center of circulation. Those highest thunderstorms are as cold as or colder than 220 Kelvin or minus 63 degrees Fahrenheit (F).
On Friday, April 23 at 1500 UTC (11 a.m. EDT) Tropical Storm Sean had maximum sustained winds near 45 knots (52 mph). It was about 475 nautical miles north of Learmonth, Australia, near 14.4 South and 113.3 East. It was moving southeast at 4 knots (5 mph).
Animated infrared satellite imagery shows convective banding (that is, rapidly rising air that condenses and form thunderstorms) keeps wrapping into the low-level center of the storm, from both the south and east of the center. Forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center note that conditions are still good for further intensification over the next 12-24 hours, but then Sean will encounter vertical wind shear and begin weakening over the weekend.
Serial No 1,617. Starting April 2010, each entry on this blog has a unique serial number. If any of the numbers are missing, it may mean that the corresponding entry has been blocked by Google/the authorities in your country. Please drop us a line if you detect any anomaly/missing number(s).
Cyclone ULUI has slowed down some, but still moving above 20ºS as previously forecast
TC ULUI – Latest Satellite image, as of posting Cyclone ULUI – 4 km Visible/IR Image. Source CIMSS.Click Images to enlarge.
Wind Shear. Source CIMSS.Click Images to enlarge.
Cyclone ULUI (TC 20P) Details on March 19 at 06:00UTC
Position: 17.6S 157.1E
Max Sustained Winds: 120 km/hr (~ 65 kt)
Wind Gusts: 150 km/hr (~ 80 kt)
Movement: SW (225 degrees)
Forward Speed: ~ 12 km/hr ( 6 kt)
Location: About 920 km NE of Rockhampton; 1,090 east of Townsville, Australia; 1,200 E of Cairns
Maximum significant wave height: 8m (24 feet)
Sources: JTWC, CIMSS and others.
Cyclone ULUI – 1km Visible Image with Dynamical Models Superimposed. Source CIMSS.Click Images to enlarge.
According to the UKM Dynamical Model (see green line in the above image), the cyclone should have disappeared 3 days ago, strike QLD in a straight line two days ago, then completely dissipate by yesterday; however, the satellite images disagree with the model.
Cyclone ULUI: Projected Track. Source: JTWC. According to this forecast TC ULUI would have to accelerate to speeds of about 22 km/h. Click image to enlarge.
For additional images click on the following links:
Having spent 36 hours in a ‘quasistationery state,’ ULUI is finally moving
If you have been monitoring satellite images of cyclone ULUI, you would have probably noticed it wasn’t moving much despite various data indicating an average speed of about 8.8km/hr.
ULUI is now moving at an average speed of about 9 km/hr (5 kt) SSW at sustained wind speeds of about 190 km/hr with gusts of up to 240 km/hr (but weakening).
ULUI is about 1,250 kms ENE of Cairns, Australia, and is expected to come ashore in about three and a half days and dissipate over eastern Australia within two days thereafter.
The flowing image is a visible/infrared satellite image with all sorts of wacky dynamic model forecasts superimposed.
Cyclone ULUI – Visible/IR Image with Dynamic Model Forecasts Superimposed.Source CIMSS.Click Images to enlarge.
Tropical Cyclone ULUI – Visible image – MTSAT 1R – Dated March 18, 2010 at 00:00UTC. Source: Digital Typhoon. Click image to enlarge.
For additional images click on the following links:
ULUI Has Refueled, Revving Up Toward Queensland, Australia
Super Cyclone ULUI is moving toward the coat of Queensland, eastern Australia, with maximum sustained winds of more than 250 km/hr (~ 135 kt) and wind gusts of up to 325 km/hr.
Depending on how far south of the coast it lands, the cyclone could strike Queensland as a Category 1 to 3A hurricane on FEWW New Hurricane Scale.
Visible/IR images of Super Cyclone ULUI (TC 20P) on its way to the coast of QLD, Australia. (Top to bottom: 8km, 4km and 2km resolution). Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.
Wind Shear. Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.
Model Forecast Tracks. Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.
TOMAS a Cat 3B hurricane, still intensifying; ULUI weakened to a Cat 3C
In the last 24 hours, Cyclone TOMAS has grown into a Cat 3B Hurricane force on the FEWW New Hurricane Scale and is still intensifying. ULUI has weakened from a super cyclone force to a Cat 3C hurricane in the same period.
A very low probability of increased interaction exists between the two systems. If the odds were to improve, whereby pinwheeling occurred between the two cyclones, TOMAS could change track, moving westward, then wobbling close to, around, or over the Fiji islands for a much longer period than anticipated.
Cyclone TOMAS. Latest GOES Image as of posting. (GOES Sat. NOAA). Click image to enlarge.
(L to R) Cyclones ULUI and TOMAS. MTSAT Colorized IR Image (NOAA). Click image to enlarge.
Tropical Cyclone Tomas (TC 19P) – Summary of Details on March 15 at 00:01UTC
Position: 15.6S 179.4W
Max Sustained Winds : ~ 195km/hr (105 kts)
Wind Gusts: ~ 240km/hr ( 130 kts)
Movement: Southwestward
Forward Speed: 5km/hr (~ 03 kts)
Location: 500km (270 NM) NORTHEAST of NADI, FIJI
Comment: TOMAS is a Category 3B hurricane on the FEWW New Hurricane Scale. The cyclone has good radial outflow and is experiencing low vertical wind shear. It is expected to continue intensifying over the next 36 – 48 hours until it experiences lower ocean heat content and higher vertical wind shear.
Maximum significant wave height: 9m (27 feet)
Sources: JTWC, Digital Typhoon, CIMSS and others.
Comment: TOMAS is expected to transition to an extratropical system in 96 to 120 hours.
Super Cyclone ULUI a Cat 5 Storm; Tomas, at Cat 1 force, Intensifying
With Cyclone Tomas (TC 19P) still 620km away, Fijians on Vanua Levu island probably know by now what to expect because of strong winds and heavy rains that are already arriving , leaving a foretaste of what is about to come their way.
Tropical Cyclone Tomas (TC 19P) – Summary of Details on March 14 at 00:01UTC
Position: 13.3S 179.5W
Max Sustained Winds : ~ 145km/hr (78 kts)
Wind Gusts: ~ 175km/hr ( 94 kts)
Movement: Southwestward
Forward Speed: 10km/hr (~ 06 kts)
Location: 620km (335 NM) NORTHEAST of NADI, FIJI
Comment: Tomas is at a Category 1 strength on the FEWW New Hurricane Scale and is expected to continue intensifying over the next 48 to 72 hours until ocean heat content decreases and vertical wind shear increases.
Sources: JTWC, Digital Typhoon, CIMSS and others.
Roll down for images.
Super Cyclone ULUI, Cat 5 Hurricane Strength, Flexing Muscles on Open Water
If the super cyclone continues on its actual path (NOT forecast path), it could destroy most structures on the Island of Rennell, aka Mungava (Pop 3,000).
Super Cyclone ULUI (TC 20P) Details on March 14 at 00:01UTC
Position: 12.7S 161.6E
Max Sustained Winds: 260 km/hr (~ 140 kts)
Wind Gusts: 325km/hr (~ 175 kts)
Movement: Northwest
Forward Speed: ~13 km/hr ( 7 kts)
Location: About 425km (230 NM) WNW of Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu
Sources: JTWC, Digital Typhoon and others.
Super Cyclone ULUI. IR/WV Difference. Source: CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.
What if in your life time climate change spawned ‘never-ending’ cyclones … storms that waxed and waned as they crisscrossed the planet, but never dissipated … cyclones that spawned other cyclones on the warm ocean waters, each time they passed near the point of their inception, a place near you …
It’s not theoretically inconceivable … you may yet drive the planet to the edge …
Where is Tomas Holidaying?
On its projected path, Tomas could cause unimaginable damage to the Main Fiji Islands. IF the cyclone were to dump its full load of precipitation on Fiji, it would submerge the two main isles under 6 feet of water.
(L to R) TC ULUI (TC 20P) and TC TOMAS (TC 19P). Source: MTSAT Easter Sector (NOAA). Click Images to enlarge.
Cyclone TOMAS Current Projected Path Takes it Right through Fiji Islands. Source: JTWC
AIRS image on March 11 at 20:10 UTC (3:10 p.m. ET) showed a developing storm with a large cluster of high, cold (purple), strong thunderstorms around Tomas’ center. Source: NASA/JPL
Tropical Cyclone Tomas (TC 19P) – Summary of Details on March 13 at 00:01UTC
Position: 11.7S 178.1W
Max Sustained Winds: ~ 120km/hr (65 kts)
Wind Gusts: ~ 150km/hr ( 80 kts)
Movement: 230 degrees
Forward Speed: ~ 10km/hr (06 kts)
Location: 890km (440 NM) NORTHEAST of NADI, FIJI
Comment: High ocean heat content and strong outflow will help Tomas to intensify steadily. Tomas could reach Category 4A, possibly as high as Cat 4c, strength on the FEWW New Hurricane Scale.
Tomas has “tightly-wrapped convective banding around a well-defined low-level circulation center. Upper level analysis indicates TC 19P is just to the south of an anticyclone that is enhancing excellent equatorward outflow,” JTWC said.
Sources: JTWC, Digital Typhoon, CIMSS and others.
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Cyclone ULUI: The Loitering Devil on the Deep Blue Sea
TC ULUI. Source MTSAT (NOAA). Click Images to enlarge.
Location: About 195km (105 NM) WNW of Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu
Sources: JTWC, Digital Typhoon and others.
Infrared Image of Ului’s Cold T-storms
An AIRS image on March 12 at 9:17 a.m. ET showed a well-developed storm with a large cluster of high, cold (purple), strong thunderstorms around the center of Tropical Storm Ului. Source: NASA
“90Q: A curious short-lived ‘tropical’ cyclone in the southern Atlantic”
System 90Q, a low pressure system was located near 29.8ºS and 48.2ºW, about 290 km (180 miles) east of Puerto Alegre, off the coast of Brazil, on Wednesday, March 10 at 14:00 UTC, reportedly with maximum sustained winds about 63km/h (39 mph, or 35 knots), about a click weaker than an official tropical storm), NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center reported, acknowledging that south Atlantic waters are typically too cool to spawn tropical cyclones.
GOES-12 captured a visible image of System 90Q at 14:45 UTC on March 11, which appears “as a small circular area of clouds off the Brazilian coast.” GFS said.
The GOES-12 satellite captured this visible image of System 90Q at 14:45 UTC (9:45 a.m. ET) on March 10, 2010. 90Q is the small circular area of clouds (lower left center). Credit: NASA GOES Project
It becomes curiouser if you examine the SST anomalies in the area where “90Q” was allegedly formed.
Weekly SST Departures for the Last Four Weeks Click image to enlarge.
With sustained winds of about 170 km/hr, Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) is now a Category 2B Hurricane on FEWW New Hurricane Scale. Fire-Earth forecasts the cyclone to reach Category 4A strength, possibly stronger, within the next 36 hours.
Cyclone GELANE. IR satellite images (NHC Enhancement). 4km resolution. Source: UW-CIMSS. Click images to enlarge.
Tropical Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) Details
Date/Time: 18 February 2010 – 00:01 UTC
Position: Near 14.3ºS, 61.6ºE
Sustained Movement: 150 degrees
Forward speed: 11 km/hr ( 6 kt)
The Cyclone has been tracking SOUTH-SOUTHWEST over the past 6 hours.
Cyclone RENE continues to intensify, seemingly intent on wreaking havoc in the S Pacific island groups
In fact, based on the available information, there’s little to prevent the cyclone [turning around] tracking west, and targeting Samoa Islands, despite the forecast paths.
Tropical Cyclone RENE (TC 15P) – Water Vapor Satellite Image. Source: UW-CIMSS. Click Image to enlarge.
Tropical Cyclone RENE (TC 15P) Details
Date/Time: 12 February 2010 – 01:30 UTC
Position: Near 13.0ºS, 166.0ºW
Sustained Movement: 215 degrees
Forward speed: 9 km/hr (~ 5 kt)
Tropical Cyclone RENE has been tracking SOUTH over the past 6 hours.
Current Wind Distribution:
Maximum Sustained winds: ~ 110km (~ 60 kt)
Maximum Gusts: ~ 140 km/hr (~ 75 kt)
Wave Height and Location:
Maximum significant wave height: ~ 6m (18 ft)
Location: TC RENE was located about 500 km (~ 270 NM) ENE of Pago-Pago
Rene could intensify to a Cat 2B Hurricane [probability of 65 percent] possibly a Cat 3A Hurricane [probability of 45 percent] within the next 72 hours, depending on its forward motion speed.
Sources: CIMSS, JTWC and Others
South Pacific and North America are two places to avoid right now!
OLI struck French Polynesia a few hours ago. On the main island of Tahiti, hundreds of people abandoned their homes to escape the full wrath of the strengthening cyclone. Roads harbors and airports were closed throughout the popular holiday island resorts, according to various reports.
Hurricane OLI Details
Time/Date: 5 February 2010 – 00:01 UTC
Position: Near 20.4ºS, 151.4ºW
Sustained Movement: 155 degrees
Forward speed: 22 km/hr (~ 12 kt)
Tropical Cyclone OLI has been tracking South-Southeast over the past 6 hours.
Current Wind Distribution:
Maximum Sustained winds: 227 Km (122.4 kt)
Maximum Gusts: ~ 280km/hr (~ 150 kt)
Wave Height and Location:
Maximum significant wave height: 8.5 m (26 ft)
Location: OLI was located about about 350 km (~ 190 NM) SW of Tahiti
Sources: CIMSS and Others
Cat 4B Hurricane OLI – Visible IR image. Date as inset. Source: UW-CIMSS. Click image to enter CIMSS Tropical Cyclone portal.
Tropical Cyclone Magda made landfall at 01:35UTC on January 22 in northern West Australia. Image captured by MODIS on NASA’s Terra satellite. Magda was expected to dissipate quickly over land this weekend. Credit NASA.
Meanwhile, Tropical Cyclone OLGA, forecast to be near 16.1S 147.6E, moving at 24 km/h (13 knots), 270 degrees, continued to strengthen gradually.
Max sustained winds forecast at 12:00UTC
on 23 January: 93 km/h
The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), instrument that flies aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite from April 22 at 17:29 UTC (1:29 p.m. EDT) showed some strong, high, cold thunderstorms around Sean’s center.
