SONGDA Sweeps Along Japan’s Southern Coast

Tropical Storm SONGDA carries strong winds and massive precipitation to Japan’s southern coast

The storm has dumped heavy rain on western, southern and central Japan. Heavy rain is also expected in the ‘Tohoku Triple Disaster Area.’

Weather authorities have issued multiple warnings for strong winds, heavy precipitation,  flooding, landslides and high waves.

TS SONGDA IR Satellite Image (NHC enhancement) with projected path overlay. See inset for date/time/details. Source: CIMSS. Click images to enlarge.

TS SONGDA Analysis [Issued by JMA at 05:40 UTC, 29 May 2011]

Position:  32.6°N, 133.9°E
Direction and forward speed: NE 65km/h(35kt)
Central pressure: 980hPa
Maximum wind speed: 102km/hr (55kt)
Maximum wind gust: 148km/hr (80kt)
Average rainfall along storm track: 25mm/hr [FIRE-EARTH estimate based on JAM data]

TS SONGDA Projected Path. Source and copyright: JMA

TS SONGDA satellite image overlay at 05:00UTC on May 29, 2011. Source: Digital Typhoon.

Related Links

• Typhoon SONGDA Targets Ryukyu Islands, Okinawa
• Super Typhoon SONGDA Saunters NW
• Super Typhoon SONGDA
• Satellite Imagery
• 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season: AAA
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Loops/Animations (MTSAT/NOAA/SSD)

• Northwest Pacific – Water Vapor
• Northwest Pacific – Visible
• Northwest Pacific – Visible (Colorized)
• Northwest Pacific – Infrared
• Northwest Pacific IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

Digital Typhoon Animations

• Last 24 Hours : MPEG / WMV
• Last 120 Hours : MPEG / WMV
• Last 240 Hours : MPEG / WMV

THE STORM QUATRO

4 More Storms Including 2 Hurricanes Deliver Huge Amounts of Precipitation Globally

(L to R) TS KARL, Hurricanes IGOR and Julia, TS FANAPI. Image Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.

SSMI/AMSRE-derived Total Precipitable Water – Global

Timed at: Thu, 16 Sep 2010 12:15:30 UTC. Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.

Animated Version of the above image:

Source:CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.

Related Links:

• IGOR POWERS ON OVER ATLANTIC
• IGOR and JULIA: A Double Act in Atlantic
• IGOR TURNS DEADLY OVER ATLANTIC
• Storm Extravaganza
• The Storm Trio

Satellite Imagery (GOES 12 Floater/NOAA/SSD)

• Central Atlantic – Infrared
• Central Atlantic – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)
• Central Atlantic – Water Vapor
• Central Atlantic – Visible
• Central Atlantic – Visible (Colorized)

Loops/ Satellite Animations

• Tropical Atlantic – Visible Loop
• Central Atlantic – Visible Loop

Additional Satellite Images:

• Atlantic and Caribbean Tropical Satellite Imagery
• Satellite Imagery (FEWW Index Page)

DIANMU Strikes Korea

TS DIANMU Strikes Southern Coast of Korean Peninsula

TS DIANMU– Visible  Satellite Image (1km Res). Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.

Dianmu winds topped speeds of 100 km/hr (gusts of 130 km/hr) before slamming into Korean Peninsula. The above natural-color image was captured by  MODIS on NASA’s Terra satellite on August 10. Source: NASA E/O. Click image to enlarge. Download large image (5 MB, JPEG)

TS CHANTHU Rapidly Organizing, Targeting S. China

CHANTHU Could Strike Zhanjiang, S. China as a Cat 3B Hurricane

CHANTHU Summary at 8:00UTC – July 21, 2010 [Estimated by Fire-Earth]

• Location: Near 19N, 113E
• Max Sustained Winds: 115 km/hr
• Wind Gusts: 140 km/hr
• Movement: West (275 degrees) at 12 km/hr
• Position: 450km SSW of Hong Kong
• Max Wave Heights: 6.5m (20 feet)
• Source: JTWC and others

TS  CHANTHU – IR/Visible Satellite Image. Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.

TS  CHANTHU – Projected Path on IR/WV Diff image. Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.

Related Links:

• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Tropical Storm Alex Forms Near BELIZE

TS ALEX the First Named Storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season 2010 Nears the Coast of Belize

Northern Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula experiencing heavy rainfall.

Alex – Visible/Infrared satellite image – Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge

Alex poses a potential threat to the Gulf of Mexico cleanup operation, though the risk is seen as minimal at this stage.

GOES East Hurricane Sector Infrared Image. Click image to update.

U.S. Coast Guard Admiral Thad (FAT) Allen was quoted as saying BP may be forced to suspend oil containment operations, “if a storm with gale-force winds were expected within five days at the leak site.” Reuters reported.

“We understand it’s moving westerly at this time and does not threaten the site,” said Allen, adding however, “we all know that the weather is unpredictable.”

Shell Oil Co has announced that it would also evacuate 300 non-essential employees from its Gulf of Mexico offshore operations as a precaution, the report said.

ALEX Projected Path: Various Dynamical Models Forecasts.  Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge

Meanwhile, the state of Louisiana filed a motion with the U.S. Appeals Court for the Fifth Circuit on Saturday opposing the DOI’s request to stay a ruling from the federal judge who overturned a six-month ban on new deepwater drilling in the Gulf, Reuters reported.

TS ALEX: Summary of Details  at 00:01 UTC, Sunday 27 June 2010

• LOCATION: 17.4N 88.1W
• Distances
  • About 25km (15 miles)  SE of Belize City
  • About 125km  (75miles) south of Chetumal, Mexico
• Max. Sustained Winds 100km/hr (65 MPH)
• Currently Moving W (280 degrees) at 19km/hr (12 MPH)
• Min Central Pressure 996 MB (29.41 inches)

Satellite Imagery:

Satellite Imagery (GOES 12 Floater/NOAA/SSD)

• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Water Vapor
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Visible
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Infrared

• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Infrared
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Water Vapor
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Visible
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Visible (Colorized)
• Gulf of Mexico – Infrared
• Gulf of Mexico – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)
• Gulf of Mexico – Water Vapor
• Gulf of Mexico – Visible
• Gulf of Mexico – Visible (Colorized)

Loops/ Satellite Animations (GOES 12; NOAA/SSD)

• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Water Vapor
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Visible
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Infrared

Related Links:

• Gulf of Mexico Oil Disaster: Headline News
• Tropical Depression One: Forecast
• Tropical Depression One: Forecast
• Tropical Wave Continues to Wreak Havoc Across Caribbean

Cyclone 24S Strengthens, Renamed Sean

Cyclone 24S powers up, renamed Tropical Storm Sean

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), instrument that flies aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite from April 22 at 17:29 UTC (1:29 p.m. EDT) showed some strong, high, cold thunderstorms around Sean’s center.

Infrared imagery is false-colored and higher cloud tops of stronger storms are depicted in purple. Sean showed a circular area of high, strong thunderstorms around his center of circulation. Those highest thunderstorms are as cold as or colder than 220 Kelvin or minus 63 degrees Fahrenheit (F).

On Friday, April 23 at 1500 UTC (11 a.m. EDT) Tropical Storm Sean had maximum sustained winds near 45 knots (52 mph). It was about 475 nautical miles north of Learmonth, Australia, near 14.4 South and 113.3 East. It was moving southeast at 4 knots (5 mph).

Animated infrared satellite imagery shows convective banding (that is, rapidly rising air that condenses and form thunderstorms) keeps wrapping into the low-level center of the storm, from both the south and east of the center. Forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center note that conditions are still good for further intensification over the next 12-24 hours, but then Sean will encounter vertical wind shear and begin weakening over the weekend.

Sean is a sea storm, and will not affect any land areas over the weekend. Image and Text: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

Related Links:

• Satellite Imagery
• NASA Storms

–

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Major Hurricanes in 2010: Twice the Cent Avg

Serial No  1,550. Starting April 2010, each entry on this blog has a serial number. If any of the numbers are missing, it may mean that the corresponding entry has been blocked by the authorities/Google in your country. Please drop us a line if you detect any anomaly/missing number(s).

Twice More Major Hurricanes in 2010 Than the Century Average : Forecasters

As the Colorado State University hurricane forecasting team predicts an above-average hurricane season for 2010, NOAA NWS fails to adopt a user-friendly hurricane scale.

Hurricane Ike bears down onto the upper Texas coastline with category 2 wind speed of 177 km/hr (110 mph), September, 2008. Thanks to the inadequacies of Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, many could have attested to being hit by a category 3 storm. Image Source: NOAA

ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY FOR 2010

The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will see above-average activity with increased chances of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall,  the Colorado State University hurricane forecasting team have predicted.

“We have increased our seasonal forecast from the mid-point of our initial early December prediction due to a combination of anomalous warming of Atlantic tropical sea surface temperatures and a more confident view that the current El Niño will weaken.” They said.

They forecast 15 named storms, including 8 hurricanes, 4 of them major, with a 69 percent probability [long-term average probability is 52 percent] at least one major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season which officially begins on June 1 and lasts for 6 months.

Major hurricanes are those classified as Category 3a or above on the FEWW New Hurricane Scale with sustained winds of at least 178 km per hour (111 mph).

Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Forecast For 2010. Source: Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University (By Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray)

Probabilities for a minimum of one major hurricane making landfall on the following coastal areas:

• Entire U.S. coastline – 69% (average for last century:  52%)
• U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida – 45% (average for last century: 31%)
• Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville – 44% (average for last century: 30%)

Probabilities for a minimum of one major hurricane tracking into Caribbeans (10-20°N, 60-88°W)

• 58% (average for last century: 42%)

The forecasters estimate:

• 8 hurricanes (average: 5.9),
• 15 named storms (average: 9.6)
• 75 named storm days (average: 49.1)
• 35 hurricane days (average: 24.5)
• 4  major (Category 3,4 or 5) hurricanes (average: 2.3)
• 10 major hurricane days (average: 5.0).
• The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 130 percent of the long-period average.
• Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2010 is expected to be  about 160 percent of the long-term average.

Related Links:

• FEWW FORECAST: 2009 Likely Wettest Year on Record

Tropical Cyclone 18S Approaches Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Hubert (18 S) Sauntering Toward  Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Hubert  (TC 18S). Visible/ IR Satellite Image. Source: UW-CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.

Infrared image from NASA’s Atmospheric Infrared Sounder, AIRS instrument on NASA’s Aqua satellite shows the high cold clouds (blue), which are starting to band, or wrap around the cyclone’s center of circulation. (March 8 at 10:23UTC). Credit: NASA JPL

Summary of Details

• Current Position: 20.3S 50.1E
• Location: 340 km (~ 185 NM) ESE of Antananarivo, Madagascar
• Movement: 270 degrees
• Forward Speed: ~ 4 km/hr (2 kts)
• Max Sustained Wind Speed: ~ 75 km/hr
• Wind Gusts:  ~90 km/hr

Reunion Satellite  Image by Meteo France

Other Images:

• IR Animation (GIF)
• Satellite Image Animation

Related Links:

• El Niño Update [8 March 2010]
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Fewest named hurricanes since 1997

El Niño helped ensure fewest named storms and hurricanes in 13 years

The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season officially ended on November 30 with Nine named storms,  three hurricanes including 2 major hurricanes at Category 3 strength or higher.

2009 Atlantic Storm Tracks – Preliminary. Credit: NOAA

On average, the Atlantic hurricane season clocks up 11 named storms and 6 hurricanes including 2 major hurricanes, NOAA said

“The reduced activity was expected and reflects the development of El Niño during the summer,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. “El Niño produced strong wind shear across the Caribbean Sea and western tropical Atlantic, which resulted in fewer and shorter-lived storms compared to some recent very active seasons.”

Although Claudette and Ida, struck the U.S. mainland with tropical storm force winds,  no hurricanes hit the U.S. in 2009, the first time in three years. Only 38 hurricane hunter aircraft reconnaissance missions were flown  over the Atlantic Basin this year compared to 169 in 2008, signifying a less active season, NOAA said.

“El Niño is expected to reach peak strength this winter, and will likely continue into the spring. It is far too early to say whether El Niño will be present next summer,” added Bell.

Related Links:

• El Niño
• Hurricanes 2009
• CSU Lowers Hurricane Forecast
• FEWW FORECAST: 2009 Likely Wettest Year on Record
• 2009 Hurricane Season: Storms in Teacup, or Nasty Surprises?
• Vanishing Fred & Atlantic Hurricane Season 2009

Super Typhoon NIDA UPDATE

NIDA Weaker, Slower,  But Still a Super Typhoon

• Date and Time: Nov 26, 2009 at 21:00UTC
• Position:  Near16.6ºN 139.2ºE
• Location: About 945 km SSW of Iwo-To Island, Japan
• Movement:   NNW (325 Degrees)
• Forward Speed : 11 km/h (6 knots) – very slow
• Maximum Sustained Winds: 250 km/h  [Category 5 on FEWW and Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale]
• Maximum  Wind Gusts: 310 km/h  (165knots)
• Maximum Significant Wave Height: ≥ 13 m (43 feet)
• Formation: The 37-km eye is filling, structure becoming more asymmetrical, and elongated.  Strong radial outflow.
• Surprises: Possible

Animation of latest 168 hours : MPEG / WMV

Near real time full disk satellite image. Right Click Image, then select “View Image” to enlarge.

For more images and satellite links click link below:

Super Typhoon NIDA Boomerangs Away From Philippines

See Also:

• FEWW Satellite Imagery Index

Could Ida Become a Hurricane?

Ida, Now a Tropical Depression, Could Become a Tropical Storm Soon.

But will it strengthen further to a hurricane-force storm as it enters the warmer waters in the Gulf of Mexico?

FEWW Moderators believe, as of posting, that Ida has a more than 1 in 4 chance  [P≥0.25] of redeveloping into a hurricane-force storm after entering the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Depression IDA

GOES Sat Image- Still frame. Click image to enlarge and update.

10:00 PM EST Fri Nov 6 [03:00 UTC Sat Nov 7, 2009]
Location: 16.2°N 84.0°W
Max sustained:  56 km/h (35 mph)
Moving: N (360 degrees) at 11 km/h (7 mph)
Min pressure: 1006 mb

IDA is expected to reach the Yucatan Channel late Sunday EST.

POES Composite – Daily Sea Surface Temps.

Click image to enlarge and update.

Cumulative Wind History

Click image to enlarge and update.

This graphic shows how the size of the storm has changed, and the areas potentially affected so far by sustained winds of tropical storm force (in orange) and hurricane force (in red). The display is based on the wind radii contained in the set of Forecast/Advisories indicated at the top of the figure. Users are reminded that the Forecast/Advisory wind radii represent the maximum possible extent of a given wind speed within particular quadrants around the tropical cyclone. As a result, not all locations falling within the orange or red swaths will have experienced sustained tropical storm or hurricane force winds, respectively. Source: NHC/NOAA

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

Click image to enlarge and update.

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time. Source: NHC/NOAA

Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities – 120 Hours

Click image to enlarge and update.

These graphics show probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 34 kt…39 mph (tropical storm force). These wind speed probability graphics are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. Each graphic provides cumulative probabilities that wind speeds of at least 39 mph will occur during cumulative time periods at each specific point on the map. Source: NHC/NOAA

More Images from GOES Floater Imagery
IDA (AL11)

• Visible  Image – Java – Flash
• IR AVN  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Shortwave  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Dvorak*  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Unenhanced  Image – Java – Flash
• IR JSL  Image – Java – Flash
• IR RGB  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Funktop  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Rainbow  Image – Java – Flash
• Water Vapor  Image – Java – Flash

Other Images

• FEWW Satellite Imagery Index

Recommended Satellite Imagery (GOES 12 Floater/NOAA/SSD)

• Storm-Centered – Water Vapor
• Storm-Centered – Visible
• Storm-Centered – Water Visible (Colorized)
• Storm-Centered – Infrared
• Storm-Centered – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Water Vapor
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Visible
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Infrared

• West Atlantic – Water Vapor
• West Atlantic – Visible
• West Atlantic – Visible (Colorized)
• West Atlantic – Infrared
• West Atlantic – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

• Northwest Atlantic – Water Vaopr
• Northwest Atlantic – Visible
• Northwest Atlantic – Visible (Colorized)

• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Infrared
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Water Vapor
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Visible
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Visible (Colorized)
• Gulf of Mexico – Infrared
• Gulf of Mexico – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)
• Gulf of Mexico – Water Vapor
• Gulf of Mexico – Visible
• Gulf of Mexico – Visible (Colorized)

Loops/ Satellite Animations (GOES 12; NOAA/SSD)

• Storm-Centered – Water Vapor
• Storm-Centered – Visible
• Storm-Centered – Visible (Colorized)
• Storm-Centered – Infrared
• Storm-Centered – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement) – JXTpSCT

• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Water Vapor
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Visible
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Infrared

• West Atlantic – Water Vapor
• West Atlantic – Visible
• West Atlantic – Visible (Colorized)
• West Atlantic – Infrared
• West Atlantic – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

• Northwest Atlantic – Water Vapor
• Northwest Atlantic – Visible
• Northwest Atlantic – Visible (Colorized)
• Northwest Atlantic – Infrared
• Northwest Atlantic – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement) – NCrASAT

Mirinae: Philippines Phlooded

Tropical Storm MIRINAE – UPDATE 02 November 2009 at 15:UTC

On 02 November 2009 at 15:00 UTC Tropical Storm MIRINAE was located near 12.5N, 108.0E, or approximately 290 km northeast of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. The strom has been tracking westward (260 degrees) at a forward speed of about 22km/h during the past six hours, having made landfall shortly after 06:00 UTC. “The Low level circulation center (LLCC) is expected to dissolve over land within the next 12 hours. Remnant vorticity may track towards the Gulf of Thailand,” JTWC said, but the LLCC is not expected to redevelop.

• Maximum Sustained Winds:  85 km/h
  
• Maximum Wind Gusts:  102 km/h

.

Image of the Day:

Philippines After Mirinae

Philippines Govt sent naval boats to Santa Cruz where roads were heavily flooded. Even after the floodwater receded after rain had eased, it was still reported as “chest-high” in some areas. Photo: AP. Image may be subject to copyright.

Initial Impact of Mirinae on the Philippines

• Mirinae was the fourth storm in a month to pummel the Philippines.

• It made landfall on the eastern coastal province of Quezon, buffeting the area with winds of 150 km/h and gusts of up to 190 km/h.

• The typhoon struck Quezon about 24:00 UTC, Friday, moving west, south of Manila as it weakened overland into a tropical storm Saturday afternoon, and headed in the direction of Vietnam.

• Heavy rain and strong winds caused more damage to the already storm stricken areas in the region.

• Typhoon Mirinae took a similar path to storm Ketsana, whose heavy rains inundated Manila in September causing the worst floods in living memory.

• The worst storm-related floods in living memory have left hundreds dead , with up to a quarter of a million homeless.

• Up to 20 people have been killed or were reported as missing, including 7 confirmed  deaths, as of posting. A man was drowned and his small baby washed away in Pililla township in Rizal province, east of Manila, as they tried to cross an overflowing creek, reports said.

• Six more people were killed in Laguna province, south of the capital, and up to a dozen people are reported missing.

• In the town of Santa Cruz the roads were flooded, residents waded through a chest high mix of muddy floodwater and sewage after Mirinae dumped heavy rains in the area. govt sent in naval boats to help with rescue operation.

• “The waters were really high. It was like a flashflood. It was waist deep in our area but in other areas it went as high as the rooftops,” a local official was quoted as saying.

• Up to 120,000 people were evacuated in areas south of Manila. Residents in other areas were told to prepare essential supplies for 3 days, and stay put.

• Some 180 flights were canceled, dozens of ferries grounded, many schools closed.

• Areas south of the capital were worst hit by heavy rain and strong winds, which caused significant damage.

Philippines  Cyclones Since August 2009

• 30 Oct: Typhoon Mirinae Struck Quezon, leaving up to 20 dead or missing.
• 3 Oct: Typhoon Parma’s triggered floods and landslides killing more than 200.
• 26 Sept: Tropical Storm Ketsana dumped more water on Manila and neighboring provinces than ever recorded, killing up to 400, and leaving a quarter of a million people homeless.
• 7 Aug: Typhoon Morakot swept northern Luzon, killing more than 10 people.

Related Links:

• TS MIRINAE – UPDATE 31 October 2009
• MIRINAE: Another Cyclone Heading Philippines Way
• Typhoon MIRINAE “In-Touch” with LUPIT

TS MIRINAE – UPDATE 31 October 2009

Typhoon Mirinae, the fourth in a month to strike the Philippines, pummels the island of Luzon

Typhoon MIRINAE – Update on 31 Oct 2009 – Time: 03:00UTC

• Position: 14.0N 119.5E
• Location: 105 km (55 nm) southwest of Manila, Philippines
• Maximum  Sustained Winds: 95 km/h (50 kt)
• Maximum Wind Gusts : 120 km/h (65 kt)
• Movement and speed: Tracking  westward [255º] at 28 km/h (15 kt) – gaining speed
  
• Maximum Significant Wave Height: 4 m (13 feet)

FEWW Comment: Mirinae could strengthen into a typhoon [Probability = 0.35] again, before making its next landfall in Vietnam

Tropical Cyclone Mirinae [SANTI] MTSAT IR1. Still Image. Click image to enlarge and update.

Typhoon Mirinae, now weakened to a tropical storm force, struck the main island of Luzon, Philippines early Saturday morning (17:00 UTC Friday), making landfall in the eastern Quezon province, he Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA )reported.

The powerful typhoon “crashed into the Philippine capital Saturday with pounding rain and strong winds, causing a massive power outage, downing trees and bringing fresh floods to areas still partially submerged from a recent deadly storm,” AP reported. 

Residents living in Manila Bay look out from their house that was damaged by Typhoon Mirinae in Bacoor town, south of Manila, October 31, 2009. REUTERS/Erik de Castro. Image may be subject to copyright.

“The Philippine network said knee-deep floodwaters were reported in the village of Salapan and brownouts were reported in parts of Luzon, including metro Manila. Power was out in Quezon province, where the typhoon made landfall, as well as parts of Bicol, Pasig City and Rizal province,” UPI reported.

Up to 150,000 residents in low-lying areas were  evacuated to shelters before the typhoon arrived, the National Disasters Coordinating Council reported. Some 180 flights from Manila were canceled and many ferries were grounded, with more than 10,000 passengers stranded.

Rains caused by Mirinae have worsened the flood-stricken parts of the capital, Manila and surrounding regions caused by earlier storms, which left nearly 1,000 people dead. Up to a quarter of million people remain homeless, including more than 100,000 crammed into temporary  shelters run by the disasters relief agency.

“The government disasters relief agency reported that at least 15 villages and districts in Metro Manila are submerged — some in waist-deep floodwaters,” Xinhua reported.

This natural-color image of the storm was captured by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite at 1:00 p.m. local time October 30 (05:00UTC). The eye of the storm was a large mass of roiling clouds located less than a hundred kilometers northeast of Cataduanes Island in the Philippines. NASA image by Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team. Caption by Rebecca Lindsey, NASA Earth Observatory. Edited by FEWW.

Typhoon MIRINAE – Update on 31 Oct 2009 – Time: 03:00UTC

• Position: 14.0N 119.5E
• Location: 105 km (55 nm) southwest of Manila, Philippines
• Maximum  Sustained Winds: 95 km/h (50 kt)
• Maximum Wind Gusts : 120 km/h (65 kt)
• Movement and speed: Tracking  westward [255º] at 28 km/h (15 kt) – gaining speed
  
• Maximum Significant Wave Height: 4 m (13 feet)

TC MIRINAE 5-day track forecast. Source: JTWC. 

Best Track:

• MPEG-2 (0.14 MB)
• WMV (0.18 MB)

Satellite Imagery – animated(Constant Illumination)

• MPEG-1 (0.60 MB)
• MPEG-2 (1.58 MB)
• WMV (1.37 MB)

Satellite Imagery- animated  (Sun Illumination)

• MPEG-1 (0.35 MB)
• MPEG-2 (0.98 MB)
• WMV (0.84 MB)

Previous entries:

• MIRINAE: Another Cyclone Heading Philippines Way

• Typhoon MIRINAE “In-Touch” with LUPIT

Source Page: FEWW Satellite Imagery

MTSAT/ NOAA

• Tropical West Pacific – Water Vapor
• Tropical West Pacific – Visible
• Tropical West Pacific – Infrared
• Tropical West Pacific – Enhanced IR

• West Pacific/South China Sea – Water Vapor
• West Pacific/South China Sea – Visible
• West Pacific/South China Sea – Infrared
• West Pacific/South China Sea-  Enhanced IR

Loops/Animations (MTSAT/NOAA/SSD)

• West Pacific – Infrared
• West Pacific – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)
• West Pacific – Water Vapor
• West Pacific – Visible
• West Pacific – Visible (Colorized)
• West Pacific/South China Sea – Infrared
• West Pacific/South China Sea – Enhanced IR
• West Pacific/South China Sea – Water Vapor
• Tropical West Pacific – Infrared
• Tropical West Pacific – Enhanced IR
• Tropical West Pacific – Water Vapor
• Tropical West Pacific – Visible

• West Central Pacific – Water Vapor
• West Central Pacific – Visible
• West Central Pacific – Visible (Colorized)
• West Central Pacific – Infrared
• West Central Pacific IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

Related Links:

• Manila Flooding Could Trigger Quakes

• Philippines: Worst Floods in Living Memory
• Philippines Worst Ever Flood Casualties Climb a Notch
• How Much Can a Single Natural Event Affect You?
• Floods leave 2.5% of Colombia’s population homeless
• Earth’s Human Induced Antiphase Nears Completion
  

• Remember this Image!

• Carbon Footprint of Your Dollar
• World Problems: The Root Cause Matrix
• First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Giga Trends
• World CO2 Emissions

• Wall Street Cognitive Dissonance
• Failing Ecosystems
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs

Previous Storms:

• Photo of LUPIT Near Northern Luzon

• UPDATE: Typhoon LUPIT Arrives
• Typhoon LUPIT: Cruel, Harsh, or Wicked?
• Super Typhoon LUPIT: The Sauntering Storm
• Typhoon LUPIT Update – 17 Oct 2009
• LUPIT: The Mercy Storm?

• Parma Hampers Recovery Efforts in Vietnam
• Philippines Still Flooded
• Philippines Terminally Impacted?

• Images of the Day: Super Typhoon Melor
• Could Typhoon Melor Drag Parma Back to Philippines?
• When Will Global Food Shortages Begin Biting

• “Twin-engine” hurricanes, “Supercharged” Typhoons
• Super Typhoon Parma May Churn Manila to Vanila
• Philippines Extreme Rain from TS Ketsana

• Manila Flooding Could Trigger Quakes
• Philippines: Worst Floods in Living Memory
• Philippines Worst Ever Flood Casualties Climb a Notch

• Earth undergoing significant geophysical disturbances
• Typhoon Melor Leaves a Trail of Destruction in Japan
• Typhoon Melor Arriving in Japan, Leaving Lasting Impression

Related Links:

• Typhoon MIRINAE “In-Touch” with LUPIT
• MIRINAE: Another Cyclone Heading Philippines Way

Tropical Cyclone Bijli

TC Bijli dumped as much as 50 mm of rain per hour in parts of Bangladesh, India and Myanmar

Tropical Cyclone Bijli came ashore over eastern Bangladesh on April 17, 2009. The storm caused little damage, according to news reports, but did dump as much as 50 millimeters of rain per hour in the regions where rainfall was heaviest, shown in red, on Bangladesh and neighboring Myanmar. This image, made with data captured by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite on April 17, shows the rainfall associated with the storm. Image produced by Hal Pierce (SSAI/NASA GSFC). Caption by Holli Riebeek [Edited for brevity by Moderator.]

Tropical Storm Bijli draped the east coast of India in this image from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite on April 16, 2009. Bijli became a tropical storm in the northwest Bay of Bengal on April 15.  NASA image created by Jesse Allen, using data provided courtesy of the MODIS Rapid [sic] Response team. Caption by Rebecca Lindsey. [Edited for brevity by Moderator.]

Hurricane Paloma strengthens near Grand Cayman

Update: NOV 10, 2008 at 23:54 UTC

The remnant of Paloma which was earlier reduced to a tropical depression is now located between the north coast of Cuba and Andros Island.  Re-development of this system is not expected due to strong upper-level winds, NHC reported.

Update: NOV 09, 2008 at 06:00UTC

Paloma weakens as it moves slowly across east-central Cuba. At 06:00UTC the center of hurricane Paloma was near latitude 21.1 north, longitude 77.6 west or about 45 km southeast of Camaguey, Cuba.

Paloma is moving in northeasterly direction at about 7 km/hr. On the forecast track the center of Paloma will be near the Atlantic coast of east-central Cuba Sunday noon and be nearing the central
Bahamas by late Sunday/early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to about 155 Km/hr. Paloma is expected to weaken further during the next 48 hrs., even after it has cleared the coast of Cuba, NHC said.

Update: NOV 08, 2008 at 23:20UTC

At about 23:20 UTC hurricane Paloma likely made landfall near Santa Cruz Del Sur Cuba with maximum sustained winds of about 200 km/hr.

Update: NOV 08, 2008 at 12:00UTC

Maximum sustained winds have increased to about 225 Km/hr with higher gusts. Paloma is an extremely dangerous category Four A hurricane on FEWW Hurricane Scale [category four on the saffir-simpson scale.] NHC expects additional strengthening Saturday, followed by weakening later today through Sunday.

Dangerous Hurricane Paloma Threatens Grand Cayman, Cuba

Summary:

• Paloma is a compact but very dangerous hurricane, currently a category Three A on FEWW Hurricane Scale [category three on the saffir-simpson scale] with sustained winds of about 185 km/hr. 
• Paloma strengthens as it approaches the Cayman Islands on its way to storm-battered Cuba.
• Schools, businesses and government offices have closed down in the Cayman Islands.
• The national weather service in Cayman Islands forecast coastal waves rising to about 9 meters, causing dangerous storm surges in the coastal areas.
• Paloma drenched Honduras with heavy rains on Thursday, compounding the impoverished country’s misery where recent storms have made as many as 100,000 people homeless.
• The hurricane is expected to weaken as it reaches Cuba late Saturday, where two previous hurricanes, Gustav and Ike, caused about $5 billion in damages earlier this year.
• Cuban officials began a major evacuation in the flood-prone areas on Friday moving at least 100,000 people to safe shelters.

Dangerous Hurricane Paloma – Aviation color enhancement satellite image – Still frame – Nov 8, 2008 at 01:15UTC – Image: NOAA/NESDIS

Major hurricane Paloma strengthens on the way to Grand Cayman

• Source: NHC
• Forecaster: Stewart
• Date and Time: Nov 8, 2008 at 00:00 UTC
• Location: At 00:00 UTC the center of hurricane Paloma was located near latitude 18.9 north, longitude 81.1 west or about 50 km south of the eastern end of Grand Cayman and about 440 km southwest of Camaguey, Cuba.

• Category and Wind Speed: Maximum sustained winds have increased to near about 185 km/hr with higher gusts. Paloma is now a category Three A on FEWW Hurricane Scale [category three on the saffir-simpson scale.] Additional strengthening is possible through Saturday morning.  Afterward gradual weakening is expected to begin by late Saturday.

Hurricane PALOMA: Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities – 120 Hours

Image: NOAA

• Direction: Paloma is moving toward the north-northeast at 9 km/hr. A gradual turn toward the northeast is forecast to occur overnight, and that general motion is expected for the next 48 hrs. On the forecast track, the center of Paloma will pass near Grand Cayman tonight, reaching near Cayman Brac Saturday morning, approaching the coast of central Cuba late Saturday.

• Breadth: Paloma is a compact hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward about 35 km from the center, with tropical storm force winds extending outward to about 195 km.

• Estimated minimum central pressure: 962mb (28.41 inches).

• Storm surge flooding: 1.5 to 2.5 meters above normal tide levels accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves is expected near the center of paloma in the cayman islands.

• Storm surge flooding of Storm surge flooding of 2.5 to 4 meters is expected near and to the east of where the center of Paloma makes landfall along the south coast of Cuba.
• Rainfall: Paloma is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 25 cm (5 to 10 inches) over the Cayman Islands and central and eastern Cuba with isolated maximum totals of up to 40cm possible. Flash flood and mudslides are also possible, especially in higher terrain, which may be life-threatening over mountainous terrain.

Norbert Strengthens to a Cat 4 Hurricane

UPDATE: October 12, 2008 – 06:00UTC  >> Norbert Makes Landfall in Mainland Mexico

UPDATE: October 10, 2008 – 03:00UTC – Norbert weakens to a category 1 hurricane.

Norbert has strengthened to a category 4A hurricane on the FEWW Hurricane Scale (Cat four on the Saffir-Simpson scale), additional strengthening possible.

Hurricane NORBERT – October 8, 2008 – 22:00UTC

Infrared Satellite image frozen. Source: NOAA.

RGB Satellite image frozen. Source: NOAA.

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone

Image: NWS/NOAA

Hurricane Details:

Norbert becomes an extremely dangerous category four hurricane

• Source: NHC
• Forecaster: Brown
• Date and Time: October 8, 2008 at 21:00UTC
• Current Location: The center of hurricane Norbert was located near latitude 16.6 north, longitude 111.2 west or about 715 km south of the southern tip of Baja California.
• Category and Wind Speed: Maximum sustained winds have increased to 215 km/hr with higher gusts.  Norbert is a Category 4A on FEWW Hurricane Scale (cat. four on the Saffir-Simpson scale). Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 24 hours, followed by gradual weakening on Friday.
• Direction: Norbert is moving toward the west-northwest at 15 km/hr. A northwestward motion is expected to begin later today or tonight, followed by a turn toward the north on Thursday night or Friday.
• Wind Force Extent: Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 55 km from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230 km.
• Estimated minimum central pressure: 948 mb (27.99 inches).
• Additional Notes: The wind radii have increased.

Image Source: NASA/NOAA

Related Links and Forecast Trajectory:

• Hurricane Norbert Now a Cat 2 off Pacific Mexico