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Archive for the ‘TS Ketsana’ Category

Typhoon MIRINAE “In-Touch” with LUPIT

Posted by feww on October 29, 2009

Typhoon MIRINAE – Update on 31 Oct 2009 – Time: 03:00UTC

TS MIRINAE – UPDATE 31 October 2009

Typhoon MIRINAE – Update on 30 Oct 2009 – Time: 15:00UTC

  • Position: 14.5N 122.7E
  • Location: 240 km (130 nm) east of Manila, Philippines
  • Maximum  Sustained Winds: 158 km/h (85 kt)
  • Maximum Wind Gusts : 195 km/h (105 kt)
  • Movement and speed: Tracking  west-southwest [255º] at 24 km/h (13 kt) – has slowed down
  • Maximum Significant Wave Height: 9 m (27 feet)

Mirinae has slightly weakened, but still maintains a robust radial outflow. It’s expected to make landfall in Quezon province by 18:00UTC, and reemerge in the South China Sea, further weakened, about11 hours after landfall.

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Mirinae [Santi] Track by the Philippines DOST PAGASA. Click image to enlarge and update.

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Typhoon Mirinae [SANTI] MTSAT IR1. Still Image. Click image to enlarge and update.

Areas Under Highest Storm Warning Signal

Signal No.3  (100-185 kph winds)

  • Quezon
  • Polillo island
  • Bulacan
  • Bataan
  • Rizal
  • Cavite
  • Laguna
  • Batangas
  • Oriental Mindoro
  • Lubang Island
  • Marinduque
  • Camarines Norte
  • Camarines Sur
  • Catanduanes
  • Metro Manila

Signal No. 2  (60-100 kph winds)

  • Aurora
  • Quirino
  • Nueva Ecija
  • Tarlac
  • Pampanga
  • Zambales
  • Occidental Mindoro
  • Albay
  • Burias Island

Typhoon MIRINAE – Update on 30 Oct 2009 – Time: 03:00UTC

mirinae 30-10-09
MIRINAE – MTSAT IR Still Image. Click Image to Enlarge and Update !

The Eye of the typhoon should make land fall on Luzon at or about 18:00 UTC today [Oct 30, 2009]

  • Position: 15.0N 125.2E
  • Location: 510 km (275 nm) east of Manila, Philippines
  • Maximum  Sustained Winds: 167 km/h (90 kt)
  • Maximum Wind Gusts : 204 km/h (110 kt)
  • Movement and speed: Tracking west at 31 km/h (17 kt) – fast moving
  • Maximum Significant Wave Height: 10 m (30 feet)
  • Wind Flux: 8.1000E+02
  • Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 5.7550E+04
  • Power Dissipation Index: 4.2202E+06

5-day track 30-10-09
Typhoon MIRINAE 5-Day Projected Track. Source: JTWC.  Click image to enlarge.

0921-00
Typhoon MIRINAE 3-Day Projected Track. Source: JMA. Image may be subject to copyright.
Click image to enlarge.

PAGASA track

Typhoon MIRINAE [Typhoon SANTI in the Philippines] track by Dost PAGASA, Philippines. Click image to enlarge.

23w sat
Click image to animate.

Animation: Best Track

Satellite Imagery (Constant Illumination)

More links are posted throughout this page.

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Typhoon MIRINAE – Update 29 Oct 2009

MIRINAE  “fine-tuned” by LUPIT

Typhoon Mirinae  in “direct contact” with the remnants of LUPIT

Background: MIRINAE: Another Cyclone Heading Philippines Way

Typhoon MIRINAE Status UPDATE
On 29 October 14:45 UTC Typhoon Mirinae  was located at near 15.6N,  128.7E, approximately 890 km (480 nm) east of Manila, Philippines, tracking westward at a forward speed of about 22 km/h (12 knots).  It’s maximum significant wave height was estimated at 11 meter (33 feet).

  • Maximum  Sustained Winds: 167 km/h (90 knots)
  • Maximum Wind Gusts :   204 km/h (110 knots)

Typhoon MIRINAE Status
On 29 October 03:45 UTC Typhoon Mirinae  was located at 15.8N, 131.4E, about 1200km (650nm) east of Manila, Philippines, tracking westward at a forward speed of 27 km/h (15knots). It’s maximum significant wave height was estimated at 10 meter (30 feet).

20-10-09
Typhoon Mirinae – MTSAT IR – Still Image recorded on October 29, 2009 at 00:30 UTC. Note the poleward arm linked to the remnants of LUPIT circling to the east of Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia. Click image to enlarge and update. Source: Digital Typhoon.

The poleward arm of Typhoon MIRINAE stretches out like an umbilical cord to meet the remnants of LUPIT circling to the east of Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia. It seems like the task LUPIT failed to perform is now passed on to MIRINAE. Will she succeed wreaking more havoc on the fatally injured  Manila, Luzon and the Philippines? Will she be the “mercy” typhoon?

23w sat
Click image to animate.

Basic Information

DOB:   2009-10-27 06:00:00 UTC
AGE:   45 hours / 1.55  days
Minimum Pressure:   955 hPa
Maximum Wind Speed:  150 km/h ( 80 knots)
Maximum Wind Gusts: 215km/h (115 knots)
Max Radius of Storm Wind:  260 km /140 nm [highly symmetrical]
Diameter of Storm Wind:  260 km /140 (nm)
Radius of Gale Wind:  410 km / 220 (nm)
Diameter of Gale Wind:  670 km /360 (nm)
Distance traveled:  1,355 km
Average Speed: 30.1 km/h / 783  km/day
Range of Movement: Latitude 1.4, Longitude 12.3
Wind Flux: 5.1000E+02
Accumulated Cyclone Energy:  3.5050E+04
Power Dissipation Index:  2.5328E+06
Typhoon Name:  Mirinae means “Milky way” in South Korean

Source: Digital Typhoon / edited by FEWW

track forecast
TY MIRINAE 5-day track forecast. Source: JTWC

Best Track:

Satellite Imagery – animated(Constant Illumination)
Satellite Imagery- animated  (Sun Illumination)

Previous entries:

Source Page: FEWW Satellite Imagery

MTSAT/ NOAA

Loops/Animations (MTSAT/NOAA/SSD)

Related Links:

Previous Storms:

Posted in Climate Change, dividends of climate change, flooding in manila, Philippines, tropical storms, TS Ketsana, Typhoon Parma | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

MIRINAE: Another Cyclone Heading Philippines Way

Posted by feww on October 27, 2009

Typhoon MIRINAE – Update on 31 Oct 2009 – Time: 03:00UTC

TS MIRINAE – UPDATE 31 October 2009

October 29, 2009

Typhoon MIRINAE “In-Touch” with LUPIT

October 28, 2009

UPDATE: Giant Typhoon MIRINAE (23W)

MIRINAE Strengthens to a typhoon force, could develop to a SUPER TYPHOON [P ≥ 65%]

  • Mirinae has significantly increased in organization and intesity over the past 12 hours.

  • Typhoon Location as of 00:00 UTC 28-10-2009:   16.2N,  138.5E

TY 23W
Giant Typhoon MIRINAE (23W) could further strengthen to a Super Typhoon (probability of 65%). MTSAT IR Still Image at 00:00UTC on October 28, 2009. Click image to enlarge and update.

animation
(MTSAT/NOAA/SSD) Guam IR Color Loop. Click image to enlarge and animate.

Basic Information

DOB:   2009-10-27 06:00:00 UTC
AGE:   18 (hours) / 0.75 (days)
Minimum Pressure:   965 (hPa)
Maximum Wind Speed:  130 km/h / 70 (knots)
Max Radius of Storm Wind:  110 (km) /60 (nm)
Diameter of Storm Wind:  220 (km) /120 (nm)
Radius of Gale Wind:  330 (km) / 180 (nm)
Diameter of Gale Wind:  670 (km) /360 (nm)
Distance traveled:  587 (km)
Average Speed: 32.7 (km/h) / 783 (km/d)
Range of Movement: Latitude 1.3, Longitude 5.2
Wind Flux: 1.9500E+02
Accumulated Cyclone Energy:  1.0225E+04
Power Dissipation Index:  5.7488E+05

Source: Digital Typhoon / edited by FEWW

Best Track:

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October 27, 2009

Tropical Cyclone MIRINAE (23W)

At 03:00 UTC 27 October 2009, Tropical Storm Mirinae (23W ) was located near 14.3ºN,  144.6ºE, or approximately 75km (40 nm) northeast of Guam, moving West-northwestward (290 degrees) at about 28km (15kt) with max significant wave heights of about 4m (12 feet), JTWC reported.

Max sustained winds: 65 km/h (35 kt)
Maximum wind gusts:  85 km/h (45 kt)

All available models currently forecast 23W to make landfall on the east coast of Luzon near 15.3ºN  moving over south central Luzon.

23W
Tropical Storm 23W – MTSAT IR Still Image timed at 01:30UTC, on Oct 27, 2009. Click image to enlarge and update.

frTrack2
Storm Twentythree Forecast Track and Wind Distribution Graphic Issued Tue Oct 27 13:28 ChST. NWS/ Tiyan Guam.

twentythree
Storm Twentythree. Another twin-engined super typhoon in the making? Click image to enlarge and update.

wp2309
Tropical Storm 23W (Twentythree)  5-day projected path. Source: JTWC

MTSAT IR  full disk
MTSAT IR Image. Updated at 30 mins intervals. Click image to enlarge.

FEWW Forecast: Cyclone Mirinae could develop into an intense typhoon rapidly.

Additional Satellite Images:

Source Page: FEWW Satellite Imagery

MTSAT/ NOAA

Loops/Animations (MTSAT/NOAA/SSD)

Related Links:

Previous Storms:

Posted in manila flood, Storm Twentythree, TS Ketsana, Typhoon Lupit, Typhoon Melor, Typhoon Parma | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

“Twin-engine” hurricanes, “Supercharged” Typhoons

Posted by feww on October 1, 2009

Super Typhoon Parma May Churn Manila to Vanila : Update #1

On Thursday, October 1, 2009 at about 08:00 UTC, Parma became a  super typhoon. It’s expected to gain more strength before landfall.

Will it or won’t it?

It’s academic whether Parma will directly strike Manila. More rain for a city already buried in chest-high floodwater is just as deadly.

Could Manila Collapse?

Could Manila collapse as a result of devastation caused by the combined impact of the storms Ketsana, Parma (and  Melor, next week), as well as possible earthquakes triggered by landslides and massive mud avalanches, AND a highly probable catastrophic eruption of TAAL VOLCANO?

One way to find out is to wait and see! Another, is to stay tuned to FEWW forecasts and comments posted on this blog.

See also: The First Wave of Collapsing Cities

MTSAT-NPMOC-JTWC- Typhoon Parma
Super Typhoon Parma (see inset for date and time) – MTSAT/NPMOC/JTWC – Click on image to enlarge and view latest update.

Typhoon Parma – October 1, 2009

parma_tmo_2009274
As the death toll from Tropical Storm Ketsana continued to climb, residents of the Philippines braced for Typhoon Parma, which continued its westward path across the Pacific Ocean on October 1, 2009. The same day, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this true-color image. Coastlines of the Philippines appear in black, and storm clouds hide the satellite’s view of most of the land areas. Clouds actually fill most of this image, with the eye of the storm appearing in the right half of the picture and long arms extending westward over land.  NASA image by Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team, Goddard Space Flight Center. [Original caption edited by FEWW]

Typhoon Parma – September 30, 2009

parma_tmo_2009273
Tropical Storm [Now Super Typhoon] Parma headed westward over the Pacific Ocean, en route to the northern Philippines on September 30, 2009. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this true-color image the same day. NASA image created by Jesse Allen, using data provided courtesy of the MODIS Rapid Response team. Caption by Michon Scott. [Edited by FEWW]

Latest Details (as of posting)

  • Position:  near 12.7N 129.1 E.
  • Location: Approximately 520 NM East-Southeast of Manila, Philippines  AST-
  • Moving WNW at a forward speed of about 16 knots
  • Intensity: Super Typhoon; expected to further intensify before landfall probably on NE coast of Luzon

Super typhoon Parma is already affecting the country

flooding in suburban Cainta east of Manila -AP
A Main Street in suburban Cainta, east of Manila, flooded chest-deep.  Sunday, September 27, 2009.  Mike Alquinto / AP Photo. Image may be subject to copyright.

What will the people do?

  • Forced evacuations in northern provinces may occur, ahead of the Parma’s landfall.
  • Parma would bring more torrential rains causing a second wave of chaos  across  Manila and nearby provinces by impeding what little relief efforts some 2.5 million people are receiving after their lives were turned upside-down by TS Katsana.
  • More people are bound to perish from the impact of Parma.
  • So far 277 people have been confirmed killed in the wake of Ketsana, with 42 still missing. The numbers would rise further.
  • Up to 700,000 people who lost their homes to landslides and mud avalanches in Manila and nearby provinces are currently staying in makeshift evacuation centers. The psychological and physical impacts of living in cramped condition for prolonged periods of time would be devastating, especially among children.

Satellite animation of Typhoons Parma and Melor in the Pacific Ocean

Related Links:

Posted in luzon flooding, Satellite Image of typhoon parma, Super Typhoon Parma, TS Ketsana, Typhoon Melor, Typhoon Parma | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments »

Philippines Worst Ever Flood Casualties Climb a Notch

Posted by feww on September 27, 2009

100 Dead, Many Missing after Typhoon Ketsana

Philippines govt has appealed for international aid as 250,000 people are forced to abandon their homes


“We’re appealing for more donations of food, water and warm clothes,” the country’s Defense Secretary said.

The death toll from Typhoon Ketsana [aka TS Ondoy] has risen to about 100 with scores more reported missing.

flood Manila AFP
Pedestrians cling to a rope as they cross a heavily flooded street in Manila, Phillipines. Picture: AFP/GETTY. Image may be subject to copyright.

Although the storm is now clearing up,  some reports estimate that up to 90% of the capital, Manila, is still submerged under water.

Many people are stuck either on their roofs or in the top floor of their homes, a report said, while the entire city is without clean water and electricity, and road have turned into deep rivers submerging cars even buses.

Typhoon Ketsana, which struck the Philippines main island of Luzon with winds of more than 100 kph on Saturday, is now heading toward the South China Sea.

Related Links:

Photos/ videos:

Posted in global deluge, Ketsana, Luzon, manila flood, State of Calamity, TS Ketsana, TS Ondoy, typhoon Ondoy | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »