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Archive for the ‘Typhoon Parma’ Category

Typhoon MIRINAE “In-Touch” with LUPIT

Posted by feww on October 29, 2009

Typhoon MIRINAE – Update on 31 Oct 2009 – Time: 03:00UTC

TS MIRINAE – UPDATE 31 October 2009

Typhoon MIRINAE – Update on 30 Oct 2009 – Time: 15:00UTC

  • Position: 14.5N 122.7E
  • Location: 240 km (130 nm) east of Manila, Philippines
  • Maximum  Sustained Winds: 158 km/h (85 kt)
  • Maximum Wind Gusts : 195 km/h (105 kt)
  • Movement and speed: Tracking  west-southwest [255º] at 24 km/h (13 kt) – has slowed down
  • Maximum Significant Wave Height: 9 m (27 feet)

Mirinae has slightly weakened, but still maintains a robust radial outflow. It’s expected to make landfall in Quezon province by 18:00UTC, and reemerge in the South China Sea, further weakened, about11 hours after landfall.

track pagasa 2
Mirinae [Santi] Track by the Philippines DOST PAGASA. Click image to enlarge and update.

DP 2
Typhoon Mirinae [SANTI] MTSAT IR1. Still Image. Click image to enlarge and update.

Areas Under Highest Storm Warning Signal

Signal No.3  (100-185 kph winds)

  • Quezon
  • Polillo island
  • Bulacan
  • Bataan
  • Rizal
  • Cavite
  • Laguna
  • Batangas
  • Oriental Mindoro
  • Lubang Island
  • Marinduque
  • Camarines Norte
  • Camarines Sur
  • Catanduanes
  • Metro Manila

Signal No. 2  (60-100 kph winds)

  • Aurora
  • Quirino
  • Nueva Ecija
  • Tarlac
  • Pampanga
  • Zambales
  • Occidental Mindoro
  • Albay
  • Burias Island

Typhoon MIRINAE – Update on 30 Oct 2009 – Time: 03:00UTC

mirinae 30-10-09
MIRINAE – MTSAT IR Still Image. Click Image to Enlarge and Update !

The Eye of the typhoon should make land fall on Luzon at or about 18:00 UTC today [Oct 30, 2009]

  • Position: 15.0N 125.2E
  • Location: 510 km (275 nm) east of Manila, Philippines
  • Maximum  Sustained Winds: 167 km/h (90 kt)
  • Maximum Wind Gusts : 204 km/h (110 kt)
  • Movement and speed: Tracking west at 31 km/h (17 kt) – fast moving
  • Maximum Significant Wave Height: 10 m (30 feet)
  • Wind Flux: 8.1000E+02
  • Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 5.7550E+04
  • Power Dissipation Index: 4.2202E+06

5-day track 30-10-09
Typhoon MIRINAE 5-Day Projected Track. Source: JTWC.  Click image to enlarge.

0921-00
Typhoon MIRINAE 3-Day Projected Track. Source: JMA. Image may be subject to copyright. Click image to enlarge.

PAGASA track

Typhoon MIRINAE [Typhoon SANTI in the Philippines] track by Dost PAGASA, Philippines. Click image to enlarge.

23w sat
Click image to animate.

Animation: Best Track

Satellite Imagery (Constant Illumination)

More links are posted throughout this page.

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Typhoon MIRINAE – Update 29 Oct 2009

MIRINAE  “fine-tuned” by LUPIT

Typhoon Mirinae  in “direct contact” with the remnants of LUPIT

Background: MIRINAE: Another Cyclone Heading Philippines Way

Typhoon MIRINAE Status UPDATE
On 29 October 14:45 UTC Typhoon Mirinae  was located at near 15.6N,  128.7E, approximately 890 km (480 nm) east of Manila, Philippines, tracking westward at a forward speed of about 22 km/h (12 knots).  It’s maximum significant wave height was estimated at 11 meter (33 feet).

  • Maximum  Sustained Winds: 167 km/h (90 knots)
  • Maximum Wind Gusts :   204 km/h (110 knots)

Typhoon MIRINAE Status
On 29 October 03:45 UTC Typhoon Mirinae  was located at 15.8N, 131.4E, about 1200km (650nm) east of Manila, Philippines, tracking westward at a forward speed of 27 km/h (15knots). It’s maximum significant wave height was estimated at 10 meter (30 feet).

20-10-09
Typhoon Mirinae – MTSAT IR – Still Image recorded on October 29, 2009 at 00:30 UTC. Note the poleward arm linked to the remnants of LUPIT circling to the east of Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia. Click image to enlarge and update. Source: Digital Typhoon.

The poleward arm of Typhoon MIRINAE stretches out like an umbilical cord to meet the remnants of LUPIT circling to the east of Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia. It seems like the task LUPIT failed to perform is now passed on to MIRINAE. Will she succeed wreaking more havoc on the fatally injured  Manila, Luzon and the Philippines? Will she be the “mercy” typhoon?

23w sat
Click image to animate.

Basic Information

DOB:   2009-10-27 06:00:00 UTC
AGE:   45 hours / 1.55  days
Minimum Pressure:   955 hPa
Maximum Wind Speed:  150 km/h ( 80 knots)
Maximum Wind Gusts: 215km/h (115 knots)
Max Radius of Storm Wind:  260 km /140 nm [highly symmetrical]
Diameter of Storm Wind:  260 km /140 (nm)
Radius of Gale Wind:  410 km / 220 (nm)
Diameter of Gale Wind:  670 km /360 (nm)
Distance traveled:  1,355 km
Average Speed: 30.1 km/h / 783  km/day
Range of Movement: Latitude 1.4, Longitude 12.3
Wind Flux: 5.1000E+02
Accumulated Cyclone Energy:  3.5050E+04
Power Dissipation Index:  2.5328E+06
Typhoon Name:  Mirinae means “Milky way” in South Korean

Source: Digital Typhoon / edited by FEWW

track forecast
TY MIRINAE 5-day track forecast. Source: JTWC

Best Track:

Satellite Imagery – animated(Constant Illumination)
Satellite Imagery- animated  (Sun Illumination)

Previous entries:

Source Page: FEWW Satellite Imagery

MTSAT/ NOAA

Loops/Animations (MTSAT/NOAA/SSD)

Related Links:

Previous Storms:

Posted in Climate Change, dividends of climate change, flooding in manila, Philippines, tropical storms, TS Ketsana, Typhoon Parma | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

MIRINAE: Another Cyclone Heading Philippines Way

Posted by feww on October 27, 2009

Typhoon MIRINAE – Update on 31 Oct 2009 – Time: 03:00UTC

TS MIRINAE – UPDATE 31 October 2009

October 29, 2009

Typhoon MIRINAE “In-Touch” with LUPIT

October 28, 2009

UPDATE: Giant Typhoon MIRINAE (23W)

MIRINAE Strengthens to a typhoon force, could develop to a SUPER TYPHOON [P ≥ 65%]

  • Mirinae has significantly increased in organization and intesity over the past 12 hours.

  • Typhoon Location as of 00:00 UTC 28-10-2009:   16.2N,  138.5E

TY 23W
Giant Typhoon MIRINAE (23W) could further strengthen to a Super Typhoon (probability of 65%). MTSAT IR Still Image at 00:00UTC on October 28, 2009. Click image to enlarge and update.

animation
(MTSAT/NOAA/SSD) Guam IR Color Loop. Click image to enlarge and animate.

Basic Information

DOB:   2009-10-27 06:00:00 UTC
AGE:   18 (hours) / 0.75 (days)
Minimum Pressure:   965 (hPa)
Maximum Wind Speed:  130 km/h / 70 (knots)
Max Radius of Storm Wind:  110 (km) /60 (nm)
Diameter of Storm Wind:  220 (km) /120 (nm)
Radius of Gale Wind:  330 (km) / 180 (nm)
Diameter of Gale Wind:  670 (km) /360 (nm)
Distance traveled:  587 (km)
Average Speed: 32.7 (km/h) / 783 (km/d)
Range of Movement: Latitude 1.3, Longitude 5.2
Wind Flux: 1.9500E+02
Accumulated Cyclone Energy:  1.0225E+04
Power Dissipation Index:  5.7488E+05

Source: Digital Typhoon / edited by FEWW

Best Track:

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October 27, 2009

Tropical Cyclone MIRINAE (23W)

At 03:00 UTC 27 October 2009, Tropical Storm Mirinae (23W ) was located near 14.3ºN,  144.6ºE, or approximately 75km (40 nm) northeast of Guam, moving West-northwestward (290 degrees) at about 28km (15kt) with max significant wave heights of about 4m (12 feet), JTWC reported.

Max sustained winds: 65 km/h (35 kt)
Maximum wind gusts:  85 km/h (45 kt)

All available models currently forecast 23W to make landfall on the east coast of Luzon near 15.3ºN  moving over south central Luzon.

23W
Tropical Storm 23W – MTSAT IR Still Image timed at 01:30UTC, on Oct 27, 2009. Click image to enlarge and update.

frTrack2
Storm Twentythree Forecast Track and Wind Distribution Graphic Issued Tue Oct 27 13:28 ChST. NWS/ Tiyan Guam.

twentythree
Storm Twentythree. Another twin-engined super typhoon in the making? Click image to enlarge and update.

wp2309
Tropical Storm 23W (Twentythree)  5-day projected path. Source: JTWC

MTSAT IR full disk
MTSAT IR Image. Updated at 30 mins intervals. Click image to enlarge.

FEWW Forecast: Cyclone Mirinae could develop into an intense typhoon rapidly.

Additional Satellite Images:

Source Page: FEWW Satellite Imagery

MTSAT/ NOAA

Loops/Animations (MTSAT/NOAA/SSD)

Related Links:

Previous Storms:

Posted in manila flood, Storm Twentythree, TS Ketsana, Typhoon Lupit, Typhoon Melor, Typhoon Parma | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Typhoon LUPIT: Cruel, Harsh, or Wicked?

Posted by feww on October 21, 2009

Typhoon LUPIT – 21 Oct 2009

  • How long will LUPIT loiter around Luzon

  • How much more rain will it dump?

  • Will LUPIT move away and come back, AGAIN!

At 00:00 UTC – Oct 21, 2009
Max Winds:   160km/h (85 knots)  Category: 2
Max Gusts:  195 km/h (105knots)
Coordinates: 20.5ºN 128.9ºE
Movement past six hours: 280 degrees at 15 km/h (08 kts)
Location: About 925 km (500 kts) NE of Manila Philippines

Summary of Storm Activity

Lupit is tracking westward steered by a subtropical ridge extension to the north. Deep convection has become more organized near the storm center over the past six hours, JTWC reported.

LUPIT - 21 -10 - 09
Typhoon LUPIT – MTSAT Still image.

track - unisys
LUPIT Track by UniSys Weather.  Click image to enlarge and update.

History Color Code – The chart color codes intensity (category based on Saffir-Simpson scale)
wind force table - SSS
NOTE: Pressures are in millibars and winds are in knots where one knot is equal to 1.15 mph. Source: UniSys Weather

LUPIT - JTWC 5-day track
LUPIT 5-day track. Source JTWC. Click image to enlarge.

Typhoon LUPIT – 20 Oct 2009

22W_200530sams Large
Typhoon LUPIT (22W): JTWC/SATOP multispectral satellite image. October 20, 2009 at 05:00 UTC. Click image to enlarge.

Typhoon LUPIT – 20 October 2009, at 09:00UTC

Position: 20.4ºN, 129.3ºE
Location: Approximately 1,110 km (600 NM) northeast of Manila, Philippines.
Movement:  WNW at about 15km/h (8 knots)
Center: LUPIT’s Eye has once again become visible
System Characteristics: LUPIT has good radial out flow
Maximum significant wave height:  ~ 11 meters (34 feet)
Max sustained winds: 175km/h (95 knots)
Max gusts: 215 km/h (115 knots)

Super Typhoon Lupit
Super Typhoon Lupit. Date/Time as inset. Click on image to animate.


MTSAT IR Image. Updated at 30 mins intervals. Click image to enlarge.

Background and More images:


LUPIT 3-day projected track. Image: JMA. Image may be subject to copyright. Click image to enlarge!

Satellite Loops/Animation/Images

Other Satellite Images:

Related Links:

Posted in ecological collapse, Intertropical Convergence Zone, Lupit, LUPIT Forecast, LUPIT projected path, LUPIT Projected track, Philippine Sea, Philippines, RAMIL, sociological collapse, storm 22w, storm Ketsana, storm Lupit, storm RAMIL, Subtropical Ridge, Super Typhoon Lupit, super typhoon ramil, TS Lupit, ts lupit forecast track, Typhoon Lupit, Typhoon Parma, typhoon ramil | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Super Typhoon LUPIT: The Sauntering Storm

Posted by feww on October 19, 2009

Listening to the Planet’s Pulse

Weather models provide useful information, but they can’t project the larger picture

Storms and other natural phenomena serve to rejuvenate and ensure streams of life flow unimpeded. If you find their impact devastating, it’s because you are looking at the wrong roadmap.

Super Typhoon Lupit
Super Typhoon Lupit. Date/Time as inset. Click on image to animate.


MTSAT IR Image. Updated at 30 mins intervals. Click image to enlarge.

Background and More images:

Summary of Lupit Latest Data  (October 19 at (03:00 UTC)

  • Intensity: Super Typhoon (Very Strong)
  • Center position:  18.7° N, E 133.8°E
  • Direction and speed: N (340 degrees) at 9km/h (5kt)
  • Central pressure: 930hPa
  • Maximum sustained winds:  250 km/h, or70m/s (135kt)
  • Max. wind gusts:  307km/h (165kt)
  • Area of 50kt or greater winds:   200km wide (110NM)
  • Area of 30kt or greater winds:   440km wide (240NM)
  • Source(s): JMA; JTWC
  • Significant wave height: 11 m (32 feet)

Super Typhoon LUPIT (22W) is currently located about 1455 km (785 nm) ENE of Manila, Philippines, having moved north-northwestward at a forward speed of about 9 km/h (05 knots) during the previous six hours. LUPIT is turning back towards the west because a mid-latitude trough has left the region and the subtropical ridge is beginning to build in. LUPIT may be unable to retain super typhoon intensity and could slightly weaken before moving closer to  northern Luzon, JTWC reported.

lupit - jma oct 19 - 0000utc
LUPIT 3-day projected track. Image: JMA. Image may be subject to copyright. Click image to enlarge!

wp22 - JTWC
Super Typhoon LUPIT Projected Track. Solid centers represent wind forces stronger than 117km/h. Source: JTWC. Click image to enlarge!

Satellite Loops/Animation/Images

Other Satellite Images:

Related Links:

Posted in Dagupan city, deluge in Dagupan, Ketsana, landslides, Luzon, luzon flooding, luzon landslides, Malnutrition, Manila Collapsing, Pepeng, Philippines, philippines floods, Philippines rain, probability of Manila collapsing, Typhoon Melor, Typhoon Parma, Typhoons, Visayas | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Typhoon LUPIT Update – 17 Oct 2009

Posted by feww on October 17, 2009

LUPIT has intensified to typhoon strength moving toward central and northern Luzon, Philippines

Previous Entry:

Typhoon Data Summary

At 2:00 AM local time, Saturday October 17, typhoon LUPIT [locally known as “RAMIL”] was located about 850 km east of VIRAC, CATANDUANES (14.6°N; 133.2°E) with maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h and gusts of up to 150 km/h moving WNW at about 20/km/h, Philippines PAGASA reported.

FEWW Forecast:

Moderators believe LUPIT has the potential of becoming the most destructive typhoon yet to strike Philippines in 2009.

FEWW Previous Forecast


MTSAT IR Image. Updated at 30 mins intervals. Click image to enlarge.

Satellite Loops/Animation/Images

Other Satellite Images:

rgb lupit 17 10 09
MTSAT – RGB Still Image. Time/Date as inset. Click image to  enlarge and update.

avn - typh LUPIT 17-10-2009-
MTSAT – AVN Enhancement – Still Image. Time/Date as inset. Click image to  enlarge and update.

LUPIT Projected path JTWC
Cyclone LUPIT Projected track. Solid centers represent wind forces stronger than 117km/h. Source: JTWC.

Related Links:

Posted in Cyclone Lupit, Cyclone LUPIT Projected track, ecological collapse, Intertropical Convergence Zone, LUPIT Forecast, LUPIT projected path, Philippine Sea, Philippines, RAMIL, sociological collapse, storm 22w, storm Ketsana, storm Lupit, Storm Placenta, storm RAMIL, Subtropical Ridge, TS Lupit, ts lupit forecast track, Typhoon Parma, typhoon ramil | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

LUPIT: The Mercy Storm?

Posted by feww on October 16, 2009

FEWW Forecast appears at bottom of page!

LUPIT Races West Toward Philippines and Taiwan

Would Lupit avoid Luzon, or will it be the storm that drove the island closer to edge of collapse?

Just weeks after storm Ketsana left its deadly legacy, and days after Typhoon Parma worsened the misery, storm Lupit, forecast to be a typhoon, is racing west towards the islands of Luzon and Taiwan.

At 21:00UTC on October 15, tropical storm  LUPIT (22w)  was located  near 12.8N, 137.9E or about 315 km north of Yap moving west along the southern periphery of the Subtropical Ridge (STR) at about 33km/h.

ts lupit -
Storm Lupit races west. MTSAT – Visible Image – Still Frame. Click image to enhance and update.

LUPITis expected to intensify steadily as it continues through the Philippine Sea because the environment is forecast to remain favorable, “characterized by minimal vertical wind shear, good radial outflow and high ocean heat content,” JTWC reported.

It is forecast to move West Northwest at reduced speeds of about 26 kph. Intertropical Convergence Zone (itcz) will affect Southern Luzon and Visayas, PAGASA reported.

Lupit expected to generate maximum significant wave height of 5 meters.

LUPIT Pagasa
How much would storm Lupit affect Luzon, Philippines? MTSAT – IR CH1 – Still Frame. Click image to enhance and update.

LUPIT forecast cyclone position
Cyclone LUPIT Projected track. Solid centers represent wind forces stronger than 117km/h. Source: JTWC.

lupit analysis

FEWW Forecast: Moderators believe if Cyclone LUPIT were to merge with [feed on] the “storm placenta” to its south (encircled on the image), it could probably

1. Reorganize, strengthening  into a super typhoon.
2. Alter its projected course, moving toward a westerly direction and targeting southern Luzon.

Satellite Loops/Animation

Other Satellite Images:


Related Links:

Posted in Dagupan city, deluge in Dagupan, Ketsana, landslides, Luzon, luzon flooding, luzon landslides, Malnutrition, Manila Collapsing, Pepeng, Philippines, philippines floods, Philippines rain, probability of Manila collapsing, sanitation, Typhoon Melor, Typhoon Parma, Typhoons, Visayas | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Parma Hampers Recovery Efforts in Vietnam

Posted by feww on October 14, 2009

Parma: The Storm that Never Left

For two weeks Parma has behaved as if programmed to cause maximum rainfall in specific regions

And all other weather systems and atmospheric phenomena have worked to ensure Parma carries out its ‘intended tasks!’

As a new tropical depression the Philippines shrouds southern portion of Luzon and central islands of the Philippines,  TS Parma drifts slowly towards  the Vietnamese coast at a forward speed of about 6 km/h towards  expecting to make landfall  1at about 6:00UTC/GMT today (October 15,  2009), near coastal line provinces from Quang Ninh to Ha Tinh.

After leaving Hainan Island, Parma redeveloped quite rapidly regaining intensity, and featuring a new eye with deep convection.

vis
Northwest Pacific – Visible Image. (MTSAT/NOAA/SSD) – Still frame – Click image to  update and enlarge.


Best Track Map. Source: ‘Digital Typhoon’

  • Heavy rainfall is expected in Cao Bang, Thanh Hoa and Lang Son from about 01:00UTC, October 15, 2009.
  • Tidal waves of up to 5 meters at coastal provinces from Quang Ninh to Nghe An should be expected.
  • The provinces from Thanh Hoa to Quang Binh should anticipate heavy rainfall.
  • Flash floods and landslides in the mountainous areas, and intense flooding in lower lands present real life threats to humans and animals.

The latest stats issued at 01:05 UTC, 14 October 2009 (JMA/JTC) are as follows:

  • Center position: N20°20′(20.3°), E107°20′(107.3°)
  • Direction and speed of movement: STR [Low- to mid-level Subtropical Ridge (STR) is located to the north of Parma. FEWW]
  • Central pressure:  748.87 mm Hg  (996hPa) – [Standard pressure is 761.84 mm Hg. FEWW]
  • Maximum wind speed near the center: 65km/h [18m/s, 35kt]
  • Maximum wind gust speed: 90km/h [25m/s, 50kt] – [reaching as high as 117km/h before landfall. FEWW]
  • Area of 30kt winds or more: Wide 190km (100NM)

Parma is expected to pass directly over Hanoi at about 00:30UTC on October 15, 2009, dissipating as a significant tropical cyclone shortly thereafter.

Parma may still have a few surprises tucked deep inside its gusty ‘algorithm!’

pi_ir
The Philippines Islands shrouded again. MTSAT Still frame. Click image to enlarge and update.

Animation

Satellite Imagery (Constant Illumination)
Satellite Imagery (Sun Illumination)

Related Links:

Posted in Ha Tinh, Nghe An, parma forecast path, parma forecast track, Quang Ninh, Thanh Hoa, tropical cyclone Parma, TROPICAL STORM 19W, Typhoon Parma | Tagged: , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Philippines Still Flooded

Posted by feww on October 11, 2009

Image of the Day:
‘Pepeng’ [Parma] may have gone; Floods, risk of landslides remain strong

More than a week after Parma first hit N Luzon, the roads  in central Dagupan city, northern Philippines remain flooded.


Residents wade through a flooded road brought on rains by typhoon Parma in central Dagupan city in northern Philippines October 10, 2009. REUTERS/Erik de Castro. Image may be subject to copyright.

“The most important thing is to open roads so we can send relief goods because we cannot hope to find alternate routes,” said Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro .

“As of now, food and relief materials can only be delivered by helicopters because it will take 2-5 days to clear up roads and bridges washed out by floods and landslides,” said Lieutenant-Colonel Ernesto Torres, of the national disaster agency.

About 500,000 tons of ready to harvest rice and other crops have been destroyed by the two storms, Ketsana and Parma, the equivalent of about 7 percent of 2009 fourth quarter forecast harvest of 6.5 million tons, said Jesus Emmanuel Paras, Agriculture undersecretary.

Various sources have estimated the cost of damage to crops and infrastructure at up to $500million.

Related Links:

Posted in Dagupan city, hantavirus, hepatitis, Ketsana, Luzon, luzon flooding, luzon landslides, Malnutrition, Manila Collapsing, Melor, Parma, Philippines, philippines floods, Philippines rain, probability of Manila collapsing, sanitation, Typhoon Melor, Typhoon Parma, Typhoons | Tagged: , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Philippines Terminally Impacted?

Posted by feww on October 10, 2009

Our thanks to EDRO Moderators for their input and direction

Ketsana, Parma and Melor: Harbingers of Bad Times Ahead?

Did the Three Storms Spell the Beginning of the End for the Philippines as We Know it?

On September 26, 2009 FEWW called the floods caused by storm Ketsana Philippines Worst Floods in Living Memory. Soon the fool extent of the human-enhanced disaster unfolded, as Tropical Storm Ketsana poured more than a month’s worth of rain on Manila in just a few hours.

About 300 people were killed in the Philippines worst floods in living memory caused by tropical storm Ketsana on September 26, which swamped about half a million homes in the Manila and nearby regions. By mid day September 27, about 80 to 90 percent of the Philippines capital was still submerged under water.


Commuters wade through waist-deep floodwaters following heavy rains brought about by tropical storm Ketsana (locally known as Ondoy) Saturday Sept. 26, 2009 in Manila, Philippines. At least five people have been killed after nearly a month’s worth of rain fell in just six hours Saturday, triggering the worst flooding in the Philippine capital in 42 years, stranding thousands on rooftops in the city and elsewhere as Tropical Storm Ketsana slammed ashore. (AP Photo/Bullit Marquez). Image may be subject to copyright.

FEWW Moderators expected Typhoon Parma to expand the destruction, and for the first time mentioned the probability of Manila collapsing.

Finally Parma Arrived!

Parma came, but for fleeting moments it looked like it could spare the Philippines main Island of Luzon. FEWW Moderators weren’t deceived, however. Driven by a more powerful storm, Typhoon Melor, which pinwheeled the by now weaker storm, ensuring that it would stay over northern Luzon for the next few days, Parma caused another round of deluge in Northern Luzon.

Could Manila Collapse?

On October 1, 2009, as Parma became a “super Typhoon, the moderators proposed:

Could Manila collapse as a result of devastation caused by the combined impact of the storms Ketsana, Parma (and  Melor, next week), as well as possible earthquakes triggered by landslides and massive mud avalanches, AND a highly probable catastrophic eruption of TAAL VOLCANO?

And suggested:

One way to find out is to wait and see! Another, is to stay tuned to FEWW forecasts and comments posted on this blog.

By Saturday October 10, 2009 at least 265 people were confirmed dead as landslides and flooding caused by Parma in the previous two days, the officials said.

Toll from heavy rain in Philippines rose further as more bodies were recovered -afp
A total of 265 people were confirmed dead in landslides and flooding caused by Parma in the past two days. Photo: AFP. Image may be subject to copyright.

This death toll from the deadly storms now stands at 611 with dozens more reported missing. Two weeks after Ketsana struck, up to 350,000 people are still packed into temporary evacuation centers. More than 3 million people have been affected.

But the Philippines worst nightmare hasn’t even started.

The specter of infectious disease outbreaks looms over the Philippines. Up to 3 million people in the country are immediately threatened by the very high risk of outbreaks of water-, sanitation-, and hygiene-related disease as well as foodborne epidemics including cholera, hepatitis A and E, typhoid fever, and shigellosis (caused by Shigella dysenteriae type 1 (Sd1), according to health officials.

The factors that are increasing health risks include:

  • Malnutrition
    • compromises natural immunity,
    • leads to more frequent occurrences of infections
    • Infections become more severe and prolonged
    • communicable diseases become more difficult to diagnose and treat
    • pose significant threat to public health
    • infants and children are particularly at risk
  • Disruption in power and fuel supplies with immediate impact on
    • drinking water
    • sanitation
    • personal hygiene
    • food production hygiene, refrigeration  and cooking facilities
  • Displaced population and overcrowding
    • overcrowding in temporary relief centers would heighten the risk of acquiring
      • acute respiratory infections (ARI)
      • measles
      • meningitis.

By end of November/early December 2009, additional exposure to disease-carrying vectors such as mosquitoes could increase the risk of

  • dengue
  • malaria

As well as rarer diseases such as

  • chikungunya
  • hantavirus
  • Japanese encephalitis

Disruption of Critical Services caused by flooding would prevent access to

  • health and social and security
  • medical, obstetric and surgical emergencies

Rainfall from Typhoon Parma

TYPH parma_trm_2009282
Typhoon Parma spent nearly a week pouring heavy rain on the northern half of the Philippine island of Luzon. This image shows both the storm’s track and the rainfall that accumulated between October 2 and October 8, 2009. The rainfall data are from the Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis, which includes rainfall observations from many satellites that are calibrated to match more detailed rainfall observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. The satellites recorded more than 700 millimeters (28 inches) of rain in places, shown in dark blue.

The heaviest rain fell on the mountain range that runs north to south along the length of the island, the Cordillera Central. Damages came from landslides on the slopes of the mountains and from floods caused by water flowing out of the mountains west to the South China Sea. The largest area of heavy rain sits over the Lingayen Gulf, the “u”-shaped body of water on the western shore of Luzon near the bottom of the image. One province in this region, Pangasinan, was between 60 and 80 percent flooded. The highest death toll came from another province, Benguet, a little north and east of Lingayen Gulf, where landslides impacted several villages.

The storm came ashore from the east and crossed the northern tip of the island on October 3, 2009. Under the influence of nearby Typhoon Melor, Parma stalled offshore, unleashing yet more rain on Luzon while spinning in place on October 4-5. Finally, the storm reversed direction and moved back across the Philippines toward Typhoon Melor on October 7. By October 8, Melor’s influence on Parma weakened, and Parma moved west again to make its third trip across Luzon Island. Many of the areas of heavy rain coincide with areas that likely saw Parma’s most intense inner bands more than once throughout the course of the week.

NASA Earth Observatory image by Jesse Allen, using near-real-time data provided courtesy of TRMM Science Data and Information System at Goddard Space Flight Center. Caption by Holli Riebeek. [Edited by FEWW]

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Posted in Chikungunya, Displaced population, hantavirus, hepatitis, Japanese encephalitis, Ketsana, Luzon, Malnutrition, Manila Collapsing, Melor, Parma, Philippines, probability of Manila collapsing, sanitation, the Beginning of the End cholera, Typhoon Melor, Typhoon Parma, Typhoons | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Typhoon Melor Leaves a Trail of Destruction in Japan

Posted by feww on October 8, 2009

Typhoon Melor Causes Widespread Destruction and Disruptions in Japan

Melor was the first typhoon in two years to make landfall in Japan, striking in Aichi prefecture,  southwest of Tokyo, on the main island of Honshu, killing 2 people and injuring more than 30.

melor in Japan reuters
A man points to a wall torn down by high winds from the third floor of a house in Tsuchiura City, Ibaraki Prefecture north of Tokyo October 8, 2009. Typhoon Melor barrelled into Japan’s main island on Thursday, disrupting flights and trains, closing some factories and tearing roofs off houses, but damage was much less than had been feared. REUTERS/Kyodo. Image may be subject to copyright.

It caused widespread damage through strong winds, with gusts of up to 200km/h, and heavy rain including flooding roads, cutting off power and phone lines, destroying traffic signals, uprooting trees, and tearing roofs from building  and knocking over trucks on the flooded roads.

Numerous Flight bullet train and commuter train services were canceled, stranding tens of thousands of commuters in the morning rush hours.

Melor forced the world’s largest car-maker, Toyota, to shut its factories in central Honshu as a precautionary measure.

At least 100,000 homes were left without electricity in Gifu, Mie Kanagawa prefectures, and parts of  Tokyo Metropolitan.

The authorities issued various warnings against mudslides and risk of landslides throughout Honshu.

Recent Typhoon Damage in SE ASIA

  • Typhoon Tokage pummeled Western Japan in October 2004, killing up to 100 people.
  • Typhoon Etau, avoiding a direct hit in Japan, caused  flash floods and large landslides that killed up to 30 people in August, 2009.
  • Typhoon Morakot struck Taiwan also in August, causing extensive landslides that swept entire villages, killing as many as 1,000 people.
  • Tropical Cyclone Ketsana left a trail of devastation across Southeast Asia, killing hundreds of people, mostly in the Philippines, Vietnam and Cambodia.
  • Typhoon Parma left a swath of destruction in its wake killing at least 16 people in the northern Philippines  and flooding dozens of villages.

BREAKING NEWS: Two new weather systems are racing west across the Pacific ocean heading towards the Philippines.

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Posted in New Typhoons, Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ketsana, Typhoon Etau, Typhoon Morakot, Typhoon Parma, Typhoon Tokage | Tagged: , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

“Twin-engine” hurricanes, “Supercharged” Typhoons

Posted by feww on October 1, 2009

Super Typhoon Parma May Churn Manila to Vanila : Update #1

On Thursday, October 1, 2009 at about 08:00 UTC, Parma became a  super typhoon. It’s expected to gain more strength before landfall.

Will it or won’t it?

It’s academic whether Parma will directly strike Manila. More rain for a city already buried in chest-high floodwater is just as deadly.

Could Manila Collapse?

Could Manila collapse as a result of devastation caused by the combined impact of the storms Ketsana, Parma (and  Melor, next week), as well as possible earthquakes triggered by landslides and massive mud avalanches, AND a highly probable catastrophic eruption of TAAL VOLCANO?

One way to find out is to wait and see! Another, is to stay tuned to FEWW forecasts and comments posted on this blog.

See also: The First Wave of Collapsing Cities

MTSAT-NPMOC-JTWC- Typhoon Parma
Super Typhoon Parma (see inset for date and time) – MTSAT/NPMOC/JTWC – Click on image to enlarge and view latest update.

Typhoon Parma – October 1, 2009

parma_tmo_2009274
As the death toll from Tropical Storm Ketsana continued to climb, residents of the Philippines braced for Typhoon Parma, which continued its westward path across the Pacific Ocean on October 1, 2009. The same day, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this true-color image. Coastlines of the Philippines appear in black, and storm clouds hide the satellite’s view of most of the land areas. Clouds actually fill most of this image, with the eye of the storm appearing in the right half of the picture and long arms extending westward over land.  NASA image by Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team, Goddard Space Flight Center. [Original caption edited by FEWW]

Typhoon Parma – September 30, 2009

parma_tmo_2009273
Tropical Storm [Now Super Typhoon] Parma headed westward over the Pacific Ocean, en route to the northern Philippines on September 30, 2009. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this true-color image the same day. NASA image created by Jesse Allen, using data provided courtesy of the MODIS Rapid Response team. Caption by Michon Scott. [Edited by FEWW]

Latest Details (as of posting)

  • Position:  near 12.7N 129.1 E.
  • Location: Approximately 520 NM East-Southeast of Manila, Philippines  AST-
  • Moving WNW at a forward speed of about 16 knots
  • Intensity: Super Typhoon; expected to further intensify before landfall probably on NE coast of Luzon

Super typhoon Parma is already affecting the country

flooding in suburban Cainta east of Manila -AP
A Main Street in suburban Cainta, east of Manila, flooded chest-deep.  Sunday, September 27, 2009.  Mike Alquinto / AP Photo. Image may be subject to copyright.

What will the people do?

  • Forced evacuations in northern provinces may occur, ahead of the Parma’s landfall.
  • Parma would bring more torrential rains causing a second wave of chaos  across  Manila and nearby provinces by impeding what little relief efforts some 2.5 million people are receiving after their lives were turned upside-down by TS Katsana.
  • More people are bound to perish from the impact of Parma.
  • So far 277 people have been confirmed killed in the wake of Ketsana, with 42 still missing. The numbers would rise further.
  • Up to 700,000 people who lost their homes to landslides and mud avalanches in Manila and nearby provinces are currently staying in makeshift evacuation centers. The psychological and physical impacts of living in cramped condition for prolonged periods of time would be devastating, especially among children.

Satellite animation of Typhoons Parma and Melor in the Pacific Ocean

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Posted in luzon flooding, Satellite Image of typhoon parma, Super Typhoon Parma, TS Ketsana, Typhoon Melor, Typhoon Parma | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments »