ULUI – UPDATE – MAR 21

Cyclone ULUI brought heavy rainfall, flooding to areas between Bowen and St Lawrence, Australia.

ULUI is losing intensity rapidly and is now at tropical storm strength, with winds of about 63 km/hr (34 kt) Australia’s BOM reported.

Tropical Cyclone ULUI – Visible [postcard]  image – MTSAT 1R – Dated March 21, 2010 at 00:00UTC.   Source: Digital Typhoon.  Click image to enlarge.

“At 8:00 am EST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ului, was estimated to be overland 120 kilometres west southwest of Bowen and 60 kilometres west of Collinsville and moving west southwest at 26 kilometres per hour.” BOM reported.

Readers who have had training as government employees and are familiar with bureaucratic cross-referencing may be able to extract more information from Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology website; however, they appear to have issued their last warning concerning ULUI.

Unless ULUI re-intensifies, this entry would be Fire-Earth’s final update on ULUI.

Related Links:

For additional images click on the following links:

• Visible
• Visible Loop
• IR
• IR Loop
• Colorized IR
• Colorized IR loop.
• Water Vapor
• Water vapor loop

How ULUI was born:

• Last 24 Hours : MPEG / WMV
• Last 120 Hours : MPEG / WMV
• Last 240 Hours : MPEG / WMV

ULUI History and Related Links:

• TC ULUI – 2nd UPDATE – MAR 20
• Tropical Cyclone ULUI – UPDATE Mar 20

• TC ULUI: Mid-air refueling
• Cyclone ULUI – UPDATE Mar 18
• TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 17

• Cyclone ULUI: Enough Fuel to Land in Australia
• Cyclones TOMAS and ULUI – UPDATE Mar 16
• Tropical Cyclone TOMAS
• Tropical Cyclone ULUI

• Cyclones TOMAS and ULUI – UPDATE Mar 15
• Cyclones ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 14
• TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 13
• Tropical Cyclones Now Come in Pairs
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

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TC ULUI – 2nd UPDATE – MAR 20

Was it Something We Said?

ULUI Intensifies to a Category 1 Hurricane on FEWW New Hurricane Scale,and Intensifying

UPDATE on March 20 at 06:30UTC

• Position: 19.7S, 151.7E
• Max Sustained Winds: 152 km/hr (~ 82 kt)
• Wind Gusts: 200 km/hr (~ 107 kt)
• Movement: WSW (240 degrees)
• Forward Speed: ~ 24 km/hr (13 kt)
• Location: About 515 km EAST (98.5degrees) of Townsville, Australia
• Maximum significant wave height: 9m (27 feet)
• Sources: JTWC, CIMSS and others.
• Comments: The cyclone’s deep convection has developed much further. Satellite images indicate that ULUI could develop an eye before it strikes the Australian coast.  Warm coastal waters are feeding ULUI and there’s little vertical wind shear to oppose the cyclone from further strengthening. ULUI could potentially intensify into a category 2A [90 percent probability],  a Cat 2B [64 percent probability] or even a Cat 3A [~ 50 percent probability] Hurrine force on FEWW New Hurricane Scale before making a landfall.

• Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has warned that up to 30cm of rain could fall in areas under the projected path of TC ULUI.

Cyclone ULUI IR Satellite image with GFS and CMC forecast tracks superimposed. The track marked in yellow is Fire-Earth Forecast. Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.

Tropical Cyclone ULUI – Visible [postcard]  image – MTSAT 1R – Dated March 20, 2010 at 05:00UTC.   Source: Digital Typhoon.  Click image to enlarge.

On the Ground …

Meanwhile, Australia’s Queensland prime minister (they have one for each state), Anna Bligh, has declared a disaster zone across the state’s central and northern coast a day ahead of cyclone ULUI arrival.

Bligh declared the Townsville, Burdekin, Whitsunday, Charters Towers, Mackay, Isaac, Rockhampton and Central Highlands as disaster areas, local reports said.

“This declaration is in anticipation that some properties may need to be evacuated in the coming hours as Tropical Cyclone Ului approaches and then crosses the North Queensland coast,” she said.

“The declaration gives Emergency Services agencies the power of mandatory evacuations if required.”

For additional images click on the following links:

• Visible
• Visible Loop
• IR
• IR Loop
• Colorized IR
• Colorized IR loop.
• Water Vapor
• Water vapor loop

How ULUI was born:

• Last 24 Hours : MPEG / WMV
• Last 120 Hours : MPEG / WMV
• Last 240 Hours : MPEG / WMV

ULUI History and Related Links:

• Tropical Cyclone ULUI – UPDATE Mar 20

• TC ULUI: Mid-air refueling
• Cyclone ULUI – UPDATE Mar 18
• TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 17

• Cyclone ULUI: Enough Fuel to Land in Australia
• Cyclones TOMAS and ULUI – UPDATE Mar 16
• Tropical Cyclone TOMAS
• Tropical Cyclone ULUI

• Cyclones TOMAS and ULUI – UPDATE Mar 15
• Cyclones ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 14
• TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 13
• Tropical Cyclones Now Come in Pairs
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Cyclone ULUI – UPDATE Mar 19

TC ULUI Still Moving Toward QLD

Cyclone ULUI has slowed down some, but still moving above 20ºS as previously forecast

TC ULUI – Latest Satellite image, as of posting

Cyclone ULUI – 4 km Visible/IR Image. Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.

Wind Shear.  Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.

Cyclone ULUI  (TC 20P) Details on March 19 at 06:00UTC

• Position: 17.6S 157.1E
• Max Sustained Winds:  120 km/hr (~ 65 kt)
• Wind Gusts: 150 km/hr (~ 80 kt)
• Movement:  SW (225 degrees)
• Forward Speed:  ~ 12 km/hr ( 6 kt)
• Location: About 920 km NE of Rockhampton;  1,090 east of Townsville, Australia; 1,200 E of Cairns
• Maximum significant wave height: 8m (24 feet)
• Sources: JTWC, CIMSS and others.

Cyclone ULUI – 1km Visible Image with Dynamical Models Superimposed. Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.

According to the UKM Dynamical Model (see green line in the above image), the cyclone should have disappeared 3 days ago, strike QLD in a straight line two days ago, then completely dissipate by yesterday; however, the satellite images disagree with the model.

Cyclone ULUI: Projected Track.  Source: JTWC. According to this forecast TC ULUI would have to accelerate to speeds of about 22 km/h. Click image to enlarge.

For additional images click on the following links:

• Visible
• Visible Loop
• IR
• IR Loop
• Colorized IR
• Colorized IR loop.
• Water Vapor
• Water vapor loop

ULUI History and Related Links:

• TC ULUI: Mid-air refueling
• Cyclone ULUI – UPDATE Mar 18
• TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 17

• Cyclone ULUI: Enough Fuel to Land in Australia
• Cyclones TOMAS and ULUI – UPDATE Mar 16
• Tropical Cyclone TOMAS
• Tropical Cyclone ULUI

• Cyclones TOMAS and ULUI – UPDATE Mar 15
• Cyclones ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 14
• TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 13
• Tropical Cyclones Now Come in Pairs
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 17

ULUI Goes to Australia

Two for the price of one cyclone!

See also:

Cyclone ULUI: Enough Fuel to Land in Australia

TC ULUI is moving slowly (6 km/hr) toward the east coast of Australia (Queensland).

Two of the available models (NGP and CMC) suggest ULUI could make landfall close to 20ºS  latitude which could mean it will strike the Australian coast as a cat 3A or 2B hurricane on the FEWW New Hurricane Scale with sustained winds of up to 180 km/hr (gusts of up to 230 km/hr).

A third model (GFS) predicts landfall south of the 20ºS latitude, which might suggest a Category 1 hurricane force, or weaker, with sustained winds of up to 150km/hr (wind gusts of about 180 km/hr).

JTWC suggest land fall south of 21.5ºS latitude with sustained winds of up to 120 km/hr (wind gusts of about 155 km/hr).

ULUI is currently located about 1,320km NORTHEAST of Townsville, and 1,300km NNE of Rockhampton, QLD, Australia.

Moderators’ forecast concurs closer with the CMC model, for now.

Dynamic Model Forecasts. Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.

Tropical Cyclone ULUI showing near-perfect longitudinal symmetry – Visible image – MTSAT 1R – Dated March 17, 2010 at 00:00UTC.   Source: Digital Typhoon.  Click image to enlarge.

Two for the price of one cyclone!

Cyclone TOMAS is still going strong with sustained winds  of about 220 km/hr and gusts of up to 260 km/hr. Its currently located near 26.3S, 176.5W.

TCs ULUI and TOMAS – Visible image – MTSAT EAST (NOAA)

Other Images and Animations

• Visible
• Visible Loop
• IR
• IR Loop
• Colorized IR
• Colorized IR loop.
• Water Vapor
• Water vapor loop

Related Links:

• Cyclone ULUI: Enough Fuel to Land in Australia
• Cyclones TOMAS and ULUI – UPDATE Mar 16
• Tropical Cyclone TOMAS
• Tropical Cyclone ULUI

• Cyclones TOMAS and ULUI – UPDATE Mar 15
• Cyclones ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 14
• TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 13
• Tropical Cyclones Now Come in Pairs
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale