ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 8 Sept 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 0.8ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 0.9ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 1.0ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.7ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) – Recent Evolution
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 0.5°C above-average across the Pacific Ocean and at least 1.0°C above average near the Date Line and in the eastern Pacific.
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes.
ONI (°C): Evolution since 1950
The most recent ONI value (June – August 2009) is +0.7°C.
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5 above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
For additional information see following links.
Relate Links:
- Recognizing El Niño
- El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
- TAO Diagrams
- El Niño Forecasts
El Niño Updates
- El Niño Update [31 Aug 2009]
- El Niño Update [17 Aug 2009]
- El Niño Update – 10 August 2009
- El Niño Update – 3 August 2009
- El Niño Update – 27 July 2009
- El Niño Update – 20 July 2009
- El Niño Update # 1
- El Niño conditions is in progress —NOAA
- El Niño event almost certain: BOM
- El Niño could develop June – August 2009
- World Now
- 2009 Hurricane Season
ENSO, wind anomaly El Niño, Indian Ocean, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, Positive SST
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