Hurricanes 2009

Ida, Now a Tropical Depression, Could Become a Tropical Storm Soon.

But will it strengthen further to a hurricane-force storm as it enters the warmer waters in the Gulf of Mexico?

FEWW Moderators believe, as of posting, that Ida has a more than 1 in 4 chance  [P≥0.25] of redeveloping into a hurricane-force storm after entering the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Depression IDA

GOES Sat Image- Still frame. Click image to enlarge and update.

10:00 PM EST Fri Nov 6 [03:00 UTC Sat Nov 7, 2009]
Location: 16.2°N 84.0°W
Max sustained:  56 km/h (35 mph)
Moving: N (360 degrees) at 11 km/h (7 mph)
Min pressure: 1006 mb

IDA is expected to reach the Yucatan Channel late Sunday EST.

POES Composite – Daily Sea Surface Temps.

Click image to enlarge and update.

Cumulative Wind History

Click image to enlarge and update.

This graphic shows how the size of the storm has changed, and the areas potentially affected so far by sustained winds of tropical storm force (in orange) and hurricane force (in red). The display is based on the wind radii contained in the set of Forecast/Advisories indicated at the top of the figure. Users are reminded that the Forecast/Advisory wind radii represent the maximum possible extent of a given wind speed within particular quadrants around the tropical cyclone. As a result, not all locations falling within the orange or red swaths will have experienced sustained tropical storm or hurricane force winds, respectively. Source: NHC/NOAA

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

Click image to enlarge and update.

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time. Source: NHC/NOAA

Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities – 120 Hours

Click image to enlarge and update.

These graphics show probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 34 kt…39 mph (tropical storm force). These wind speed probability graphics are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. Each graphic provides cumulative probabilities that wind speeds of at least 39 mph will occur during cumulative time periods at each specific point on the map. Source: NHC/NOAA

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Vanishing Fred & Atlantic Hurricane Season 2009

Wondering what happened to the Atlantic Hurricane Season?

As [tiny] Fred begins to fizzles out of its hurricane status in the Atlantic ocean about 1,190 km (740 miles) west of Cape Verde Islands, mot everyone must be thinking whatever happened to the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season.

Hurricane Fred. GOES Floater Imagery – Still Image – See inset for date and time.

Summary of Hurricane Fred Status: Fred is weakening further as it slows down more.
AT 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 10, Fred was located at 17.4°N 35.1°W, at max sustained wind speeds of about  140 km/h (85 mph) moving north at a forward speed of 5 km/h
(3 mph) with a min pressure of 735.1 mmHg (80 mb), NHC/NOAA said, expecting it to downgrade to a tropical storm within the next 24 hrs.

For one thing, it’s not over yet, at least not until the “fat lady” strikes. The peak months are August to October.

For another, the strengthening El Niño episode seems to be disrupting storm formation in the Main Hurricane Development Region, the Atlantic basin, AND forcing the storms away from land.

In fact, NOAA’s updated 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook predicts a 90% chance of a near-normal or below normal hurricane season.

NOAA recounts two competing climate factors.

1. The persisting “multi-decadal signal” that has been “associated with elevated levels of Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995, along with warmer than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea.”

2. The El Niño episode, which is  “producing increased wind shear in the Main Hurricane Development Region.”

Based on these mix of climatic factors, NOAA updated prediction for the 2009 hurricane season is

• 50% chance of a near-normal season
• 40% chance of a below normal season
• Only an unlikely 10% chance of an above-normal season

The outlook indicates a 70% probability for each of the following seasonal ranges: 7-11 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, 1-2 major hurricanes, and an ACE range of 60%-110% of the median. Most of this activity is expected during the upcoming peak months (August-October) of the hurricane season.

For an in-depth analysis by NOAA see: 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Update

Jimena Continues to Weaken

 

“Hurricane Jimena plowed over Baja California on Wednesday (PDT), tearing off roofs, knocking down power poles and bringing welcome rainfall to a drought-stricken state. ” AP reported.

Posted by feww on September 3, 2009

Summary of Hurricane Jimena Current Status

5:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 2 (Thurs Sep 3 at 00:00 UTC)
Location: 26.7°N 112.2°W
Max sustained: 130 km/h (80 mph)
Moving: N (360 degrees) at 19 km/h (12 mph)
Min pressure:  735.8 mmHg (981 mb)

NHC Advisory said:

• Jimena is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 12 to 25 cm ( 5 to 10) inches over the southern half of the Baja Peninsula and portions of western Mexico during the next couple of days, with possible isolated maximum amounts of  about 40cm (15 inches).  These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

• A dangerous storm surge along with large and dangerous battering waves will produce significant coastal flooding along the Baja California Peninsula.

• Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

• Hurricane warning remains in effect for the southern portion of the Baja California and other areas [See latest NHC Advisory]

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Center of Jimena passes near Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico

Time/Date:  8:00 AM PDT Wednesday, September 2, 2009 (15:00 UTC)

Jimena is moving in the north-northwesterly at about 20 km/h (13 mph), and is expected to continue in that direction, at a slower forward speed in the next 24 to 36 hours.

Summary of Hurricane Jimena Current Status

8:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 2
Location: 25.2°N 112.2°W
Max sustained: 161 km/h (100 mph)
Moving: NNW at 20 km/h (13 mph)
Min pressure: 73 cmHg (973 mb)

NHC Advisory said:

• Jimena is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 12 to 25 cm ( 5 to 10) inches over the southern half of the Baja Peninsula and portions of western Mexico during the next couple of days, with possible isolated maximum amounts of  about 40cm (15 inches).  These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

• A dangerous storm surge along with large and dangerous battering waves will produce significant coastal flooding along the Baja California Peninsula.

• Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

• Hurricane warning remains in effect for the southern portion of the Baja California and other areas [See latest NHC Advisory]

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Hurricane Jimena Down to Cat 3

Posted by feww on September 2, 2009

Hurricane Jimena Weakens to a Category 3B on FEWW Hurricane Scale

Hurricane Jimena weakens to a Category 3B on FEWW Hurricane Scale (Cat 3 on Saffir Simpson scale) with maximum sustained winds of about 201 km/h (125 mph), still a major hurricane.

Summary of Hurricane Jimena Current Status

Time/Date:  2:00 PM PDT Tuesday, September 1, 2009 (21:00 UTC)

• Location: 21.9°N 111.2°W [About 135 Km (85 miles) WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico and About 265 km (165 miles) SSE of Cabo San Lazaro Mexico.]
• Max sustained: 201 km/h (125 mph)
• Moving: NNW (330 degrees) at 19 km/h (12 mph)
• Min pressure: 71.3 cmHg (951 mb)

NHC Warning:

• Hurricane warning remains in effect for the southern portion of the Baja California and other areas [See latest NHC Advisory]
• Conditions are expected to deteriorate over the southern portion of the warning area later today and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
• For storm information specific to your area, monitor your national meteorological service.

Palm trees are blown by strong winds in Cabo San Lucas in Mexico’s state of Baja California, as Hurricane Jimena approaches, September 1, 2009. Hurricane Jimena, an extremely dangerous Category 4 storm, barreled toward Mexico’s Baja California peninsula on Tuesday, forcing tourists to flee the Los Cabos resort area. REUTERS/Henry Romero (MEXICO DISASTER ENVIRONMENT IMAGES OF THE DAY).

Jimena is still moving on forecast track in NNW direction at a leisurely speed of about 19 km/h (12 mph), and is expected to continue same next couple of days.

MODIS on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this image at 11:35 a.m., Pacific Daylight Time, on September 1, 2009. At the time this image was taken, Jimena had winds of 215 kilometers per hour (135 miles per hour) with stronger gusts, said NHC. The storm was expected to bring heavy rain—up to 15 inches in some locations, a dangerous storm surge, and battering waves to Baja California. The image has been rotated 17 degrees to the east. NASA image courtesy Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team at NASA GSFC. Caption by Holli Riebeek. [Edited by FEWW.]

Click here for the latest loop of the last 12 hours

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Hurricane Jimena: No Prisoners

Posted by feww on September 1, 2009

Extremely Dangerous Hurricane Jimena Inches Toward The Baja Peninsula

Making landfall probably as a Category 4 to 5 Hurricane, Jemina could cause extensive  coastal flooding along the Baja California coastline.

Hurricane Jimena -Rainbow enhancement – Still Image. Click image to enlarge and update.

Summary of Hurricane Jimena Current Status

Time/Date:  5:00 AM PDT Tuesday, September 1, 2009 (12:00 UTC)

• Location: 20.6°N 110.4°W [About 250 Km (155 miles) south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico and About 505 km (315 miles) SSE of Cabo San Lazaro Mexico.]

• Max sustained: 250 km/h (155 mph)

• Moving: NNW (330 degrees) at 19 km/h (12 mph)

• Min pressure: 69.8 cmHg (931 mb)

• Jimena is not very large in size. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 75 km (45 miles) from the center, and tropical storm force up to 220 km (140 miles).

• At its current forward speed, Jimena should be approaching the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula by tonight local time (PDT).

NHC Warning:

• Hurricane warning remains in effect for the southern portion of the Baja California and other areas [See latest NHC Advisory]

• Conditions are expected to deteriorate over the southern portion of the warning area later today and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

• For storm information specific to your area, monitor your national meteorological service.

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Hurricane JIMENA

Posted by feww on September 1, 2009

Dangerous Jimena Inches Northwestward

Summary of Hurricane Jimena Current Status

Time/date:  5:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 31 (00:00 UTC Tuesday Sept 1, 2009)
Location: 18.8°N 109.2°W
Max sustained: 250 km/h (155 mph)
Moving: NW (315 degrees) at 16 km/h (10 mph)
Min pressure: 69.8 cmHg (931 mb)

Fed by the warm coastal waters, Jimena may remain a major hurricane until landfall.

HNC Advises:

• Hurricane warning remains in effect for the southern portion of the Baja California and other areas [See latest NHC Advisory]
• Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
• For storm information specific to your area, monitor your national meteorological service.

Hurricane Jimena- Still Frame – see image for date. To enlarge and update, click on the image.

POES Composite – (Daily Sea Surface Temperatures) – Still Image. To enlarge and update, click on th eimage.

Still Image. Click on the image to enlarge and update.

Still Image. Click on the image to enlarge and update.

Still Image. Click on the image to enlarge and update.

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Bye Bill

BILL LOSES TROPICAL IDENTITY

Monday, August 24, 2009  09:00 UTC

5:00 AM AST Mon Aug 24
Location: 48.6°N 50.2°W
Max sustained: 110 km/h
Moving: ENE at 69 km/h
Min pressure: 980 mb

NHC said:

At 09:00 UTC the center of Bill was located near 48.6°N 50.2°W or about 305 km northeast of Cape Race Newfoundland. It was moving ENE at 69 km/h, and could continue in that direction at a faster forward  speed for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are 110 km/h, but gradual weakening is forecast. Bill is no longer a tropical cyclone, however it may produce a large area of storm and gale force winds over the north Atlantic during the next day or two.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward to about 510 km from the center.

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Bill racing Toward Newfoundland

Monday, August 24, 2009  00:01 UTC

NHC: Hurricane BILL Information Summary

8:00 PM AST Sun Aug 23 (00:00 UTC Mon Aug 24)
Location: 46.2°N 57.9°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: NE at 35 mph
Min pressure: 970 mb

Bill is about 375 km west of Cape Race, Newfoundland, moving toward the northeast near at 56 km/h, HNC said. The hurricane is expected to increase its forward speed tonight and Monday, and will pass on the forecast track near or over  southeastern Newfoundland later tonight (local time).

Bill is a category one hurricane with maximum sustained winds of about120 km/h, but is expected to become extratropical by Monday, HNC reported. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 95 km from the center, with tropical storm force winds extending to about 465 km.

Meanwhile, NHC reported increased showers and thunderstorms in association with a tropical front about 960 km east of the Leeward islands, with the less than 30 percent probability of the  system becoming a tropical cyclone in the next two days.

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Bill Heading North, Expected to Pass Offshore of New England Tonight

Sunday, August 23, 2009  00:01 UTC

NHC: Hurricane BILL Information Summary

8:00 PM AST Sat Aug 22
Location: 37.8°N 68.3°W
Max sustained: 140 km/h (85 mph)
Moving: N at 39 km/h (24 mph)
Min pressure:  72.1 cmHG (961 mb)

Hurricane Watch Areas:

• The east coast of Nova Scotia from Ecum Secum to point Aconi.

Tropical Storm Warning:

• The east coast of Nova Scotia from Charlesville to point Aconi
• The coast of Massachusetts from Woods Hole to Sagamore beach, including the islands of Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket.
• The northern coast of Nova Scotia from north of point Aconi westward to Tdnish
• The western coast of Nova Scotia from fort Lawrence to Charlesville
• Prince Edward Island from Victoria in Queen County
• Northward to lower Darnley in Prince County
• From Parsons Pond around the western
• Southern…and eastern coasts of Newfoundland to Harbour Deep.

• The center of hurricane bill was about 415 km SSE  of Nantucket Massachusetts and 880 km SSW of Halifax Nova Scotia.

• Hurricane force winds extend 140 km from the center, tropical storm force winds extend 445 km.

Rainfall and Coastal Swells

• Total rain accumulations of 7 to 12 cm  with isolated maximum of 17cm are expected near the track of Bill across Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland. 2 to 5 cm of rain are expected over Nantucket island…with around 2.5cm over outer Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard.

• Large swells generated by Hurricane Bill will continue to affect much of the U.S. east coast and spread into the Atlantic Maritimes of Canada tonight and Sunday. These swells will likely cause extremely dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents. Swells From Bill are still affecting the Bahamas and Bermuda but should gradually diminish tonight.

For images of Hurricane Bill, forecast path and wind charts scroll down the page.

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BILL MOVING QUICKLY NNW, TS WARNING FOR MASSACHUSETTS COAST

Saturday, August 22, 2009  09:00 UTC

5:00 AM AST Sat Aug 22
Location: 33.0°N 68.5°W
Max sustained: 105 mph
Moving: NNW at 22 mph
Min pressure: 960 mb

Bill is not ‘half a man he used to be!’

HNC said:

• Tropical storm warning for the coast of Massachusetts from Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach including the islands of Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket.

• The center of Hurricane Bill was located near 33.0°N, 68.5°W or about 355 km WNW of Bermuda and about 690 km ESE of Cape Hatteras, NC. Also about 925 km south of Nantucket, Massachusetts.

• The core of Hurricane Bill is expected to pass over the open waters between Bermuda and the east coast of the United States this morning. Bill is expected to pass offshore of the coast of New England late today or tonight and approach Nova Scotia on Sunday.

• Bill is a category 2A hurricane on  the FEWW New Hurricane Scale (category two the Saffir-Simpson scale) with maximum sustained winds of about 165 km/h (with higher gusts). Some strengthening is possible today followed by weakening tonight and Sunday as the center of bill moves north of the Gulf Stream.

• Hurricane force winds extend outward 140 km from the center, and tropical storm force winds by up to 445 km.

• The Bermuda weather service has indicated that the storm tide will raise water levels by as much as a 0.9m (3 feet) above ground level along the coast, causing large and dangerous battering waves.

• Large swells generated by Hurricane Bill are affecting the Bahamas, and Bermuda, also beginning to affect the southeast coast of the United States. Large swells will begin to affect much of the remainder of the U.S. east coast and the Atlantic Maritimes ofCanada later today and Sunday. These swells will likely cause extremely dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents.

For images and charts see below.

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BILL CONTINUES NNW, BERMUDA OBSERVES TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS

Saturday, August 22, 2009  2:41 UTC

NHC: Hurricane BILL Information Summary

8:00 PM AST Fri Aug 21  (00:00 Saturday, Aug 22)
Location: 30.2°N 67.0°W
Max sustained: 165 km/h (105 mph)
Moving: NNW at  32 km/h (20 mph)
Min pressure: 954 mb

The center of hurricane Bill was near 31.0° N, 67.5° W, about 295 km (180 miles) WSW of Bermuda, and  880 km (545 miles)  ESE Cape Hatteras, NC.  Bill is a category 2A on FEWW New Hurricane Scale (category two on the Saffir-Simpson scale), with some strengthening possible within the next 24 hours, HNC reported.

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 3-Day Track Forecast Cone

Still Frame. Click on the image to enlarge and update.

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Is Bill being Chemically ‘Neutered?’

Friday, August 21, 2009  5:39 UTC

NHC: Hurricane BILL Information Summary

11:00 PM AST Thu Aug 20  (03:00 UTC Friday Aug 21, 2009)
Location: 24.9°N 64.3°W
Max sustained: 125 mph
Moving: NW at 18 mph Min pressure: 943 mb

Finally MODIS Rapid Response Team Releases a One-Day Old Image of Hurricane Bill

And so pleased with their work, they moved the image acquisition date forward by 30 days to September 30, 2009!

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this photo-like image of Hurricane Bill northeast of Puerto Rico at 10:55 a.m., local time (14:55 UTC) on August 20, 2009. Bill is large, sprawling across hundreds of kilometers from end to end, and has so has a clear eye. The National Hurricane Center expected Hurricane Bill to track northwest between the United States’s East coast and Bermuda, possibly crossing over Nova Scotia and Newfoundland on August 23.  The high-resolution image provided is at MODIS’ full spatial resolution (level of detail) of 250 meters per pixel. The MODIS Rapid Response System provides this image at additional resolutions.  NASA image by Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team, Goddard Space Flight Center. Caption by Holli Riebeek. [Edited for brevity by FEWW.]

As for the chemical treatment [ ‘re-engineering’] hint, notice the thin, curvy line which emerges at 8  o’clock and rejoins Bill’s  ‘mane’ at 10 o’clock [there are also two shorter similar lines starting at about 6 o’clock just south of the eye] appear to be an abnormal aberration.  Could it be that Bill is chemically sprayed in an attempt to  ‘control’ and  ‘re-engineer’ it—to slow it down and make it disintegrate?

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Big Bill Grows Larger, Regaining Some Strength, Moving Northwestward

Friday, August 21, 2009  1:40 UTC

NHC: Hurricane BILL Information Summary

8:00 PM AST Thu Aug 20  (00:00UTC)
Location: 24.4°N 63.9°W
Max sustained:  205 km/h  (125 mph)
Moving: NW at 30 km/h  (18 mph)
Min pressure: 71.1 cmHg (948 mb)

Hurricane Bill is grown larger in size since the last report, and has regained some of its lost strength.  Its hurricane force winds now extend out to about 185 km (115 miles) from the center, with tropical storm winds stretching as far as 415 km (260 miles), according to HNC. Bill is expected to regain cat 4 strength by Friday, HNC said.

Bill is a category 3C on FEWW New Hurricane Scale (category 3 on Saffir-Simpson scale), with its eye located about 885km (550 miles) south of Bermuda, and about 1,640 km (1,020 miles) southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

Hurricane Bill – GOES East – Unenhanced – Still frame  (cropped) – Aug 21, 2009, 01:15 UTC. Click on the Image to enlarge and update.

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BIG BILL SPREADING HIGH SWELLS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC

August 20, 2009 15:02 UTC

NHC: Hurricane BILL Information Summary
At 11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 20  (15:00 UTC)
Location: 22.6°N 61.7°W
Max sustained:  195 km/h (120 mph)
Moving: NW at 30km/h (18 mph)

Min pressure:  71.3 cmHg (951 mb)

FEWW Comments: Bill is now a giant tropical cyclone with its hurricane force winds extending to about 165 km (105 miles), and tropical storm winds extending to 415 km (260 miles).The sheer size of the cyclone has understandably slowed it down one step to a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

It’s entirely probable, however, as Bill approaches warmer coastal waters, it would regain its wind speeds, strengthening to at least a category 4, possibly a cat 5 hurricane.

A work of contemporary art. Hurricane Bill at Cat 3.  GOES – Still Frame – Funktop Enhancement – Aug 20, 2009, 14:45 UTC. Click on the Image to enlarge and update.

Bill is currently about 610 km (380 miles) north of the Leeward Islands, and about 1,120 km  (695 miles) SSW of Bermuda, NHC said, expecting to continue on their forcast track through Friday.

“The core of hurricane Bill is expected to pass over open waters between Bermuda and the east coast of the United States early Saturday,” NHC reported.

“Large swells generated by this hurricane are affecting the northern Leeward Islands and should begin affecting the Bahamas, Bermuda most of the eastern U.S. coast, and the Atlantic Maritime of Canada during the next few days.  These swells will likely cause extremely dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents.”

GOES East Hurricane SECTOR Visible Image – Hurricane Tracking Sector (VIS) – Brought to you by non other than NOAA

• View Movie of the Visible Sector

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Super Bill Grows to a Massive Hurricane

August 20, 2009 04:15 UTC

Bill’s hurricane force winds extend out 140 km (85 miles), about twice as far as they did when Bill became a major hurricane, and tropical storm winds to 370km (230 miles). Given its  strong symmetry, early organizing ability, rapid rate of development as well as the favorable oceanic and atmospheric conditions, Bill has the potential to grow to be one of the largest and most powerful hurricanes ever recorded.

Hurricane Bill – Cat 4 – GOES Imagery – Atlantic Views – Visible – Still Frame – Date: Aug 20 2009 at 04:15 UTC. Click on the Image to enlarge and update.

Hurricane Bill – Cat 4 – GOES Imagery – Shortwave – Still Frame – Date: Aug 20 2009 at 04:15 UTC. Click on the Image to enlarge and update.

SUMMARY OF INFO at 11:00 PM AST WED AUG 19 2009 (03:00 UTC Thurs Aug 20, 2009)
BILL MAINTAINING CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH
LOCATION…20.7N 58.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 215 km/h (135 MPH)
PRESENT MOVEMENT NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 28 km/h (17 MPH)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB

BILL IS ABOUT 315 MILES (505 KM) NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 880 MILES (1,415 KM) SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

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Bill strengthens into category 4 hurricane, eying top level

Hurricane Bill strengthened to a Cat 4 on Saffir-Simpson scale. Click image to enlarge and update. See also FEWW New Hurricane Scale.

[Meanwhile NASA’s MODIS Rapid Response Team, Goddard Space Flight Center, is still measuring Bill as he was on August 17.]

NHC: Hurricane BILL Data  – Summary

5:00 AM AST Wed Aug 19 (9:00 UTC)
Location: 18.0°N 54.9°W
Max sustained:  215 km/h (135 mph)
Moving: WNW at 26 km/h (16 mph)
Min pressure: 71.1 cmHg (948 mb)

Hurricane Bill is expected to strengthen further, NHC said.  Adding that, bill will create large swells which would  impact the islands of  the northeast Caribbean sea in the next 48 hours. Bermuda and parts of  the SE coast of the US would be affected similarly, Friday and Saturday.

For background information,  details of Bill’s progress and additional images, see Atlantic Hurricanes 2009.

FEWW Comments: There’s a small probability of about 0.15  that Bill could move in a westerly direction toward the Gulf of Mexico, making his first landfall on the coast of Alabama.

Related Links:

• Bill a Major Hurricane, May Strengthen  Further
• Bill Becomes Hurricane, Strengthening

• Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE [Regular updates for CLAUDETTE are found in the comment section of the post]
  
• Meet Bill and Ana, 2009 First Named Storms [Regular updates for Bill and Ana are found in the comment section of the post]
• National Hurricane Center
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Bill a Major Hurricane, May Strengthen  Further

Hurricane Bill. Still frame. Unenhanced. Aug 19, 2009 at 04:15 UTC. To enlarge and update, Click on the image. Image NOAA

Hurricane Bill: Summary of NHC Report

11:00 PM AST Tue Aug 18 (03:00 UTC/GMT Wed Aug 19)
Location: 17.2°N 53.4°W
Max sustained: 125 mph
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 952 mb
Bill is grown into a large hurricane: Its hurricane force winds extend to 75km (45miles), and its tropical storm force winds to about 280km (175 miles).
Bill is about 895km east of the Leeward Island as of the above time.

“Large swells associated with bill will be impacting the islands of the northeast Caribbean sea during the next day or two.” NHC reported.

Bill Approaching Major Hurricane Status

Hurricane Bill. Still frame. Rainbow enhancement. Aug 18, 2009 at 23:15 UTC. To enlarge and update, Click on the image. Image NOAA

Hurricane Bill: Summary of NHC Report

5:00 PM AST Tue Aug 18 (21:00 UTC/GMT)
Location: 16.6°N 52.2°W
Max sustained: 110 mph (176km/h)
Moving: WNW at 16 mph (26km/h)
Min pressure: 962 mb

Hurricane force winds extend 45 miles (75km)
Storm force winds 170 miles (280km)

Hurricane Bill. Still frame. JSL. Aug 18, 2009 at 23:15 UTC. To enlarge and update, Click on the image. Image NOAA

GOES East Full Disk.  Updated every three (3) hours. Click on th eimage to enlarge.

Hurricane Bill is pictured moving through the Atlantic Ocean, more than 1,160 miles east of the Lesser Antilles islands of the Caribbean, in this satellite image taken on August 17, 2009.  REUTERS/NOAA/Handout

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Bill Becomes Hurricane, Strengthening

Images of the Day: Bill Became a Hurricane

TS  Bill became the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season today, about 1,160 miles east of the Lesser Antilles islands of the Caribbean, the national hurricane center reported.

Bill has sustained 120 kilometers per hour winds, as it races west across the Atlantic Ocean.

The “Twin-Engine” Hurricane Bill

Bill’s strong, “twin-Engine” symmetry may help it strengthen to a major hurricane as it races west across the Atlantic.

Hurricane Bill. Still Frame printed for reference (Unenhanced). To enlarge and update, Click on the image. Image NOAA

Hurricane Bill. Still Frame printed for reference (JSL enhancement). To enlarge and update, Click on the image. Image NOAA

Related Links:

• Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE [Regular updates for CLAUDETTE are found in the comment section of the post]
  
• Meet Bill and Ana, 2009 First Named Storms [Regular updates for Bill and Ana are found in the comment section of the post]
• National Hurricane Center
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

feww said

August 18, 2009 at 5:45 am e

NHC: Hurricane BILL Public Advisory No. 11
BILL STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
Summary:
11:00 PM AST Mon Aug 17
Location: 15.0°N 48.3°W
Max sustained: 100 mph
Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 967 mb

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH (160 KM/HR) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST in THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND BILL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM
THE CENTER… AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES (240 KM).

Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE

The Third Tropical Storm in Just Over a Day forms Off the Coast of Florida

After a slow start to the six-month Atlantic hurricane season,  CLAUDETTE, the third Atlantic tropical storm of the year formed just over a day after TS Ana and Bill, on Sunday.

TS CLAUDETTE, according to the US National Hurricane Center Intermediate Advisory 4A, as of 8:00 PM EDT was located at  29.7N 85.9W with Max.  sustained winds of 80km/h (50 MPH) moving northwest (310 degrees) at a cruising  speed of about 19km/h  (12 MPH) with a minimum central pressure of 1008MB.

TS force winds radiate outward up to about 110km from the center. Claudette is expected to dump up to 15cm of rain across Florida Panhandle, the big Bend region of Florida, Central and S. Alabama, and extreme SW Georgia, the NHC advisory said, with the storm tide rising to a maximum of 150cm.

How Ana and Bill are doing

Tropical Storm Ana collapsed into a tropical depression on Sunday, and could still be downgraded further and disappear altogether very soon

Bill is the guy to watch for. Some forecasts expect Bill to grow into a  Category 3 hurricane [cat 3  and stronger hurricanes are designated as a major categories,] with winds of more than 180 km/h in the next 3 to 4 days.

The Gulf of Mexico oil and gas operations are unaffected for now, however, they could be pummeled later in the season.

Meanwhile, hurricane Guillermo is about to cross into central Pacific.

Claudette satellite image – rainbow enhancement curve – still frame as dated. To enlarge and update click on the image.

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone

To enlarge and update click on the image.

To enlarge and update click on the image.

Related Links:

• Meet Bill and Ana, 2009 First Named Storms
• National Hurricane Center
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

feww said

August 17, 2009 at 7:01 am eTropical Storm CLAUDETTE Public Advisory

WTNT34 KNHC 170545
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009
100 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2009

…CLAUDETTE MAKES LANDFALL NEAR FORT WALTON BEACH FLORIDA…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER EASTWARD TO THE AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.

AT 100 AM CDT…0600 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 86.6 WEST OR JUST
INLAND NEAR FORT WALTON BEACH FLORIDA.

CLAUDETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/HR…
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. ON
THIS TRACK…THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING…AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
ALABAMA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER LAND…AND
CLAUDETTE WILL PROBABLY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. AN OBSERVING SITE IN DESTIN FLORIDA RECENTLY
REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 45 MPH…72 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE…
THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA…CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA…AND
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.

THE STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS OF 3 TO 5
FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA.

…SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT INFORMATION…
LOCATION…30.5N 86.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

.

feww said

August 18, 2009 at 5:31 am eTropical Storm CLAUDETTE Public Advisory

PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 09 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL042009
1000 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2009

MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SUBSIDED DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN ACROSS GEORGIA.

ALL FLOOD RELATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 900 PM CDT

FLORIDA
MILLIGAN 4.62
CRESTVIEW 1.9 SE 4.49
PORT ST. JOE 0.6 SE 3.90
APALACHICOLA MUNI ARPT 3.69
MIRAMAR BEACH 9.5 ESE 2.67
TYNDALL AFB/PANAMA CITY 2.42
PANAMA CITY/BAY CO. ARPT 2.15
NICEVILLE 3.4 ESE 2.04
CALLAWAY 0.3 W 1.90
BAKER 8.2 NE 1.82

ALABAMA
BRADLEY 2.11
MOBILE DOWNTOWN ARPT 1.21

GEORGIA
FORT BENNING -COLUMBUS 2.37
COLUMBUS METRO ARPT 1.95

.

Meet Bill and Ana, 2009 First Named Storms

Posted by feww on August 16, 2009

2009 Tropical Storm Season Off to Busy Start

The red shaded area covering about a half of Florida panhandle is small area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico centered about 130km SW of Tampa, which according to the  NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center is becoming better organized with the possibility of developing a “closed surface circulation” with a more than 50 percent probability of developing into a Tropical Cyclone later today.

Area of low pressure, Gulf of Mexico, IR image.  Click on the image to enlarge and update.

“THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH TODAY.  INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.” NHC said.

Meanwhile, back in the ocean, Ana and Bill are moving west across the Atlantic Ocean

TS ANA: Click on the image to enlarge and update.

TS ANA: Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone. Click on the image to enlarge and update.

Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities – 120 Hours. Click on the image to enlarge and update.

TS BILL: Click on the image to enlarge and update.

TS BILL: Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone. Click on the image to enlarge and update.

Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities – 120 Hours. Click on the image to enlarge and update.

FEWW Forecast: Florida, the north and NE Gulf areas may be in for an extremely wet season in 2009.

feww said

August 17, 2009 at 2:09 pm eTropical Depression ANA Public Advisory

WTNT32 KNHC 171143
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
800 AM AST MON AUG 17 2009

…ANA MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN…COULD DISSIPATE
TODAY…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO…THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS…THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS…ST. KITTS…NEVIS…
ANGUILLA…ST. MAARTEN…ST. MARTIN…SABA…ST. EUSTATIUS…
GUADELOUPE…ST. BARTHELEMY…AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO
ENGANO WESTWARD TO CABO BEATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 AM AST…1200 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH… LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST OR ABOUT
70 MILES…115 KM…SOUTH OF ST. CROIX.

ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 28 MPH…45 KM/HR…AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK…ANA IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. HOWEVER…ANA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE LATER
TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB…29.77 INCHES.

ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS…PUERTO RICO…THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS…AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

…SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…16.7N 64.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/CANGIALOSI

.

August 17, 2009 at 2:12 pm e…BILL NOW A HURRICANE…THE FIRST OF THE 2009 ATLANTIC SEASON…

Hurricane BILL Public Advisory
WTNT33 KNHC 170854
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 AM AST MON AUG 17 2009

…BILL NOW A HURRICANE…THE FIRST OF THE 2009 ATLANTIC SEASON…

AT 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 44.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1160 MILES
…1870 KM…EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

BILL IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH…35
KM/HR…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/HR.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO…AND BILL
COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES…45 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145
MILES…230 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB…29.15 INCHES.

…SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…13.8N 44.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 22 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…987 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$  FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

.

feww said

August 17, 2009 at 2:14 pm eTropical Depression CLAUDETTE Public Advisory
…CLAUDETTE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION…MOVING OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA…

000
WTNT34 KNHC 171133
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009
700 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2009

…CLAUDETTE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION…MOVING OVER SOUTHERN
ALABAMA…

AT 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.

AT 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
CLAUDETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 87.2
WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES…25 KM…NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BREWTON ALABAMA
AND ABOUT 85 MILES…135 KM…SOUTHWEST OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA.

CLAUDETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THIS
TRACK…THE CENTER OF CLAUDETTE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
ALABAMA TODAY AND INTO NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/HR…WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES FARTHER INLAND.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB…29.85 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE…
THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA…AND SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL ALABAMA.

HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY.

…SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT INFORMATION…
LOCATION…31.3N 87.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1011 MB

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON CLAUDETTE BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER. FUTURE INFORMATION ON CLAUDETTE CAN BE FOUND IN
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION
CENTER…UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT34 KWNH…
BEGINNING AT 1000 AM CDT.

$$  FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

.

feww said

August 18, 2009 at 5:25 am eHurricane BILL Public Advisory
BILL STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
11:00 PM AST Mon Aug 17 (03:00 UTC Tuesday 18 Aug)
Location: 15.0°N 48.3°W
Max sustained: 100 mph
Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 967 mb

Tropical Depression ANA Public Advisory
-CIRCULATION OF ANA HAS DISSIPATED-
AT 5 PM AST (2100 UTC) ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
Summary:
5:00 PM AST (2100 UTC) Mon Aug 17
Location: 17.5°N 68.0°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: WNW at 24 mph
Min pressure: 1011 mb