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Twice More Major Hurricanes in 2010 Than the Century Average : Forecasters
As the Colorado State University hurricane forecasting team predicts an above-average hurricane season for 2010, NOAA NWS fails to adopt a user-friendly hurricane scale.
Hurricane Ike bears down onto the upper Texas coastline with category 2 wind speed of 177 km/hr (110 mph), September, 2008. Thanks to the inadequacies of Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, many could have attested to being hit by a category 3 storm. Image Source: NOAA
ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY FOR 2010
The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will see above-average activity with increased chances of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall, the Colorado State University hurricane forecasting team have predicted.
“We have increased our seasonal forecast from the mid-point of our initial early December prediction due to a combination of anomalous warming of Atlantic tropical sea surface temperatures and a more confident view that the current El Niño will weaken.” They said.
They forecast 15 named storms, including 8 hurricanes, 4 of them major, with a 69 percent probability [long-term average probability is 52 percent] at least one major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season which officially begins on June 1 and lasts for 6 months.
Major hurricanes are those classified as Category 3a or above on the FEWW New Hurricane Scale with sustained winds of at least 178 km per hour (111 mph).
Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Forecast For 2010. Source: Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University (By Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray)
Probabilities for a minimum of one major hurricane making landfall on the following coastal areas:
- Entire U.S. coastline – 69% (average for last century: 52%)
- U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida – 45% (average for last century: 31%)
- Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville – 44% (average for last century: 30%)
Probabilities for a minimum of one major hurricane tracking into Caribbeans (10-20°N, 60-88°W)
- 58% (average for last century: 42%)
The forecasters estimate:
- 8 hurricanes (average: 5.9),
- 15 named storms (average: 9.6)
- 75 named storm days (average: 49.1)
- 35 hurricane days (average: 24.5)
- 4 major (Category 3,4 or 5) hurricanes (average: 2.3)
- 10 major hurricane days (average: 5.0).
- The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 130 percent of the long-period average.
- Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2010 is expected to be about 160 percent of the long-term average.
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