Fire Earth

Earth is fighting to stay alive. Mass dieoffs, triggered by anthropogenic assault and fallout of planetary defense systems offsetting the impact, could begin anytime!

Posts Tagged ‘2010 hurricane forecast’

2010 Hurricane Forecast

Posted by feww on May 28, 2010

2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season has an 85% chance of seeing above normal activity: NOAA

NOAA estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity in 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season:

  • 14-23 Named Storms,
  • 8-14 Hurricanes
  • 3-7 Major Hurricanes
  • An ACE range of 155%-270% of the median.

2010 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook (NOAA)

The 2010 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook indicates a 75% chance of a below-normal activity, a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and a 5% chance of an above normal stormactivity.

NOAA  estimates a 70% chance of occurrence for each of the following ranges of activity in the Eastern Pacific 2010 season:

  • 9-15 named storms,
  • 4-8 hurricanes,
  • 1-3 major hurricanes,
  • An ACE range 45%-95% of the median.

Collapse Survivors

A major challenge for the collapse survivors would the transfer of scientific knowledge and  and know-how from the pre-collapse to post-collapse period.

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Major Hurricanes in 2010: Twice the Cent Avg

Posted by feww on April 8, 2010

Serial No  1,550. Starting April 2010, each entry on this blog has a serial number. If any of the numbers are missing, it may mean that the corresponding entry has been blocked by the authorities/Google in your country. Please drop us a line if you detect any anomaly/missing number(s).

Twice More Major Hurricanes in 2010 Than the Century Average : Forecasters

As the Colorado State University hurricane forecasting team predicts an above-average hurricane season for 2010, NOAA NWS fails to adopt a user-friendly hurricane scale.

Hurricane Ike bears down onto the upper Texas coastline with category 2 wind speed of 177 km/hr (110 mph), September, 2008. Thanks to the inadequacies of Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, many could have attested to being hit by a category 3 storm. Image Source: NOAA


The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will see above-average activity with increased chances of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall,  the Colorado State University hurricane forecasting team have predicted.

“We have increased our seasonal forecast from the mid-point of our initial early December prediction due to a combination of anomalous warming of Atlantic tropical sea surface temperatures and a more confident view that the current El Niño will weaken.” They said.

They forecast 15 named storms, including 8 hurricanes, 4 of them major, with a 69 percent probability [long-term average probability is 52 percent] at least one major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season which officially begins on June 1 and lasts for 6 months.

Major hurricanes are those classified as Category 3a or above on the FEWW New Hurricane Scale with sustained winds of at least 178 km per hour (111 mph).

Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Forecast For 2010. Source: Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University (By Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray)

Probabilities for a minimum of one major hurricane making landfall on the following coastal areas:

  • Entire U.S. coastline – 69% (average for last century:  52%)
  • U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida – 45% (average for last century: 31%)
  • Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville – 44% (average for last century: 30%)

Probabilities for a minimum of one major hurricane tracking into Caribbeans (10-20°N, 60-88°W)

  • 58% (average for last century: 42%)

The forecasters estimate:

  • 8 hurricanes (average: 5.9),
  • 15 named storms (average: 9.6)
  • 75 named storm days (average: 49.1)
  • 35 hurricane days (average: 24.5)
  • 4  major (Category 3,4 or 5) hurricanes (average: 2.3)
  • 10 major hurricane days (average: 5.0).
  • The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 130 percent of the long-period average.
  • Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2010 is expected to be  about 160 percent of the long-term average.

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Posted in Atlantic hurricane season, hurricane, Philip J. Klotzbach, Tropical storm, William M. Gray | Tagged: , , , , , | 1 Comment »