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Posts Tagged ‘2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season’

Atlantic Storms: Invest Area 94L

Posted by feww on June 4, 2011

Calm Before the 2011 Storms?

94L is expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash flooding and mudslides to parts of Jamaica, Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic) and southeastern Cuba, and is forecast to remain quasi-stationary over the west-central Caribbean Sea through the weekend.


Invest Area 94L. VIS/IR Satellite image. Source: CIMSS. Click images to enlarge.


Invest Area 94L. IR Satellite image (BD Enhancement, 2km res.)  Source: CIMSS.

 

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The First Atlantic Storm 2011?

Posted by feww on June 1, 2011

Nature Opens New Battlefront

Atlantic Hurricane Season 2011 Officially Starts Today


Shortwave-IR Satellite Image of the Invest Area 93L east of the Carolinas. Source: CIMSS

Real-Time U.S. Composite Satellite Image (CIMSS)


Animate this image
(download size: about 3.5 MB)


IR Satellite Image (NHC Enhancement, 8km Res) of Invest Location East of the Carolinas. Source: CIMSS

Meanwhile…

NWS in Lubbock TX issued the following WARNING:


Weather Forecast Map: NOAA

GOES Eastern US SECTOR Infrared Image

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2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season: AAA

Posted by feww on May 20, 2011

Above Average Activity Predicted for This Year’s Atlantic Hurricane  Season

An “active to extremely active hurricane season” for the Atlantic Basin this year, says  NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

The six-month Atlantic Hurricane Season, which officially begins June 1 through November 30, and covers the entire Atlantic Basin, is predicted to see above average activity this year, according to NOAA.

  • 12 to 18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher)
  • 6 to 10 of those could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher) including
  • 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)

The probability of occurrence for each of the above is 70 percent, NOAA says, indicating that activity tops the seasonal averages of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.


Hurricanes Karl, Igor and Julia seen  left to right in this satellite image taken on on September 16, 2010. Source: NOAA 

Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season

NOAA predicts “below normal” hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific for 2011 with probability of 70 percent.

  • 9 to 15 named storms, including
  • 5 to 8 hurricanes, of which
  • 1 to 3 could become major hurricanes (Category 3 or above on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).

East Pacific hurricane season began May 15th.

Central Pacific Hurricane Season

For the Central Pacific Region, NOAA predicts:

  • Below normal season with a probability of 70 percent
  • Near normal season,  a probability of 25 percent
  • Above normal season, a probability of 25 percent

NOAA predicts 2-3 tropical cyclones to affect the central Pacific in 2011, with the average season experiencing 4-5 tropical cyclones (tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes).

2010 season


2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Track Map. Click image to enlarge.

The 2010 season (the third most active season on record jointly with 1887 and 1995) experienced 19 named storms, 12 of which developed into hurricanes (second most active hurricane season jointly with 1969.

There was NO hurricane landfall in the U.S. last year. In fact, there hasn’t been a hurricane landfall in the US since 2008 when 4 hurricanes (Dolly, Gustav, Ike and Kyle) struck.


2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Track Map. Click image to enlarge.

FIRE-EARTH Forecast

Based on the blog models, recent trends set by the impact of weather extremes on population centers, especially since late 2009, and other geophysical and planetary factors, FIRE-EARTH believes 2011 could  prove less lucky than the last two years. We forecast a particularly costly hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin in 2011.  

About 40 million people in the coastal regions of the US, from  North Carolina to Texas, are most at risk of hurricanes.


The contiguous United States Population Concentration Map. Prepared by FIRE-EARTH based on a template provided by NOAA.

Atlantic Names 2011 (with pronunciations included for the audially challenged)

  • Arlene ar-LEEN
  • Bret bret
  • Cindy SIN-dee
  • Don dahn
  • Emily EH-mih-lee   (!)
  • Franklin FRANK-lin
  • Gert gert
  • Harvey HAR-vee
  • Irene eye-REEN
  • Jose ho-ZAY
  • Katia ka-TEE-ah
  • Lee lee
  • Maria muh-REE-uh   (!!)
  • Nate nait
  • Ophelia o-FEEL-ya  (!!!)
  • Philippe fee-LEEP
  • Rina REE-nuh
  • Sean shawn
  • Tammy TAM-ee
  • Vince vinss
  • Whitney WHIT-nee

Earlier Forecasts

Based on various climatic indicators and recent weather trends, FIRE-EARTH forecasts an increase of about 24% in the severity of extreme weather events during the next 20 months, compared with the previous period.

Climatic  Extremes, Primeval Geophysical Activities and WILD Weather to Wreak Mega Havoc in 2011/2012 and Beyond …
NOW IS THE PERFECT TIME TO POWER DOWN AND START THINKING HARD.  Encourage your folks, friends and neighbors to join in!! BECAUSE  for most of us the GAME would be OVER soon.

Start of Meteorological Spring Signals Hyper Tornado Season:Based on several climatic indicators and recent weather trends, FIRE-EARTH forecasts a deadly peak tornado season in 2011.

2011-2012:  A TIME FOR MEGA-DISASTERS – Emerging Calamities You CAN’T Prepare for, or Insure against

Climate Change, Global Broiling, Volatility and Extremes of Weather, Mega Swings of Temperature, Megadeluges and Megadroughts, Giant Dust Storms, Megaquakes, Super Volcanic Eruptions, Extreme Wildfires, Food and Water Scarcity, Deadly Diseases, Megadeaths (Forests, Plants, Animal Species…) Looming Megadisasters Could Impact 1/3 to 1/2 of  Human Population

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