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Posts Tagged ‘2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season’

Tropical Storm KAREN Forms Over The Southeastern Gulf Of Mexico

Posted by feww on October 3, 2013

Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches Issued for the Northern Gulf Coast: NHC

The 11th named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season was formed over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, said National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Tropical Storm KAREN as of 8:00 AM CDT Thursday October 3, 2013

  • Location: 22.0°N, 87.6°W
  • Movement: NNW at 13 mph
  • Min pressure: 1004 mb
  • Max sustained winds: 60 mph
  • Source: NHC

KAREN is forecast to reach hurricane strength on Friday.

  • Hurricane watch:
    • From: GRAND-ISLE-LA  (29.25N, 89.96W)
      To: INDIAN-PASS-FL  (29.68N, 85.27W)
  • Tropical storm watch
    • From: MORGAN-CITY-LA  (29.48N, 91.29W)
      To: GRAND-ISLE-LA  (29.25N, 89.96W)
  • Tropical storm watch
    • Metro New Orleans, Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain-LA

KAREN - 120 hrs
Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities – 120 Hours

karen 11
Tropical Storm KAREN. GOES-EAST Satellite. AVN Color Enhancement – Oct 3, 2013 @ 13:45UTC.

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Active or Extremely Active 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA

Posted by feww on May 24, 2013

2013 Atlantic hurricane season could see up to 6 major hurricanes: NOAA CPC

The six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, could see up to 20 named storms, of which 7 to 11 could become hurricanes, including as many as 6 major hurricanes, says NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC).

NOAA’s 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook indicates that an above-normal season is most likely, with the possibility that the season could be very active. The outlook calls for a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season.

Summary of CPC Prediction for 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season:

  • 70% chance of an above-normal season
  • 13-20 Named Storms (winds of 39 mph or higher)
  • 7-11 Hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher)
  • 3-6 Major Hurricanes ( Categories 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)
  • Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 120%-205%

Note: The official NHC 1981-2010 seasonal averages 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

2013 hurricane activity forecast-noaa

Climate factors that control Atlantic hurricane activity

According to NOAA/CPC, three climate factors strongly control Atlantic hurricane activity, which are expected to join forces to produce an active or extremely active 2013 hurricane season.

  • The ongoing set of atmospheric conditions that have been producing increased Atlantic hurricane activity, which includes a strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the ongoing era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995
  • Expected continuation of above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across MDR, which includes the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea
  • ENSO-neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean (i.e., no El Niño or La Niña); meaning El Niño is not expected to develop and suppress the hurricane season

NOAA’s 2013 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook

  • 55% chance of a below-normal season
  • 35% chance of a near-normal season
  • 10% chance of an above normal season

[The eastern Pacific hurricane region covers the eastern North Pacific Ocean east of 14:0oW and north of the equator.]

The outlook is based on the analysis and prediction of three climate signals:

  • The ongoing climate conditions that have been associated with reduced eastern Pacific hurricane activity since 1995
  • Expected ENSO-neutral conditions, meaning El Niño is not expected to develop and strengthen the seasonal activity,
  • Expected near-average or below-average sea-surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

NOAA estimates  a 70% chance of occurrence for each of the following ranges of activity in the 2013 season:

  • 11-16 named storms,
  • 5-8 hurricanes,
  • 1-4 major hurricanes,
  • An ACE range 60%-105% of the median.

Related Links

FIRE-EARTH Forecast

FIRE-EARTH will NOT release details of its 2013 Hurricane Season forecast as a continued protest to the ongoing censorship, hacking and theft of the intellectual property posted on this blog.

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