Earth Experiences 2nd Warmest Year to Date

2nd warmest year to date and 3rd warmest May on record

Year to date – January through May 2017

The year-to-date (January–May) globally-average temperature across land and ocean surfaces for 2017 was 0.92°C (1.66°F) above the 20th century average of 13.1°C (55.5°F). This was the second highest January–May period in the 138-year record, falling behind the record year 2016 by 0.17°C (0.31°F).

May 2017 saw the average global temperature rising 0.83°C (1.49°F) above the 20th century average of 14.8°C (58.6°F) and the third highest May in the 138-year global records, behind 2016 (+0.89°C / +1.60°F) and 2015 (+0.86°C / +1.55°F), according to researchers at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.

Warmer-than-average lands and oceans

The globally averaged land-surface temperature (seventh warmest for the month of May) and the sea-surface temperature (third warmest) ranked second highest on record for the March-to-May season and the year to date.

Both poles recorded below-average sea ice again

The average Arctic sea ice extent for May dropped 5.3 percent below the 1981-2010 average, the fifth smallest for the month since satellite records began in 1979. The average Antarctic sea ice extent was 10.6 percent below average, the second smallest on record for May behind 1980.

 

SST

The average May temperature for the global oceans was 0.71°C (1.28°F) above the 20th century average of 16.3°C (61.3°F). This was the third highest May global ocean temperature in the 138-year record, trailing behind 2016 (+0.76°C / +1.37°F) and 2015 (+0.72°C / +1.30°F).

LST

The global land-only surface temperature was the coolest May land temperature since 2011 and the seventh highest since global records began in 1880 at 1.15°C (2.07°F) above the 20th century average 11.1°C (52.0°F).

Portugal [Apocalyptic Fires Incinerate Victims Fleeing in their Cars]

Unusually warm temperatures engulfed Portugal during May 2017. Portugal’s national average mean temperature was 18.47°C (65.25°F) or 2.74°C (4.93°F) above average—the third highest May temperature since national records began in 1931, trailing behind 2011 and 2015. The nation’s average maximum temperature was 24.96°C (76.93°F), which is 4.0°C (7.2°F) above average and the second highest May maximum temperature since 1931.

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate: Global Climate Report for May 2017, published online June 2017, retrieved on June 20, 2017 from https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201705

Second Warmest March since 1880

State of the Climate: Global Climate Report – March 2017

March 2017 was the second warmest since global temperature records began in 1880, with the average temperature (combined global land and SST) rising 1.05°C (1.89°F) above the 20th century average of 12.7°C (54.9°F).

• Record March 2016 temperature was 0.18°C (0.32°F) higher.
• March 2017 marks the first time since April 2016 that the global land and ocean temperature departure from average was greater than 1.0°C (1.8°F).

Land – March 2017

Global land temperature during January–March 2017 was also the second highest on record at 1.75°C (3.15°F) above the 20th century average of 3.7°C (38.5°F). Record March 2016 was warmer by 0.31°C (0.56°F).

SST

SST in March 2017 was 0.71°C (1.28°F) above the 20th century average of 15.9°C (60.7°F). This was the second highest March in the 138-year record, behind 2016 by 0.10°C (0.18°F) and ahead of 2015 by +0.08°C (0.14°F).

Q1 -2017

Land and SST temperature for Q1 (January–March) was 0.97°C (1.75°F) above the 20th century average of 12.3°C (54.1°F)—the second highest such period in the 138-year record. This value trails behind the record year set in 2016 by 0.18°C (0.32°F).

Land  temperature for the same period was also the second highest on record at 1.75°C (3.15°F) above the 20th century average of 3.7°C (38.5°F). This value was behind the record warm 2016 by 0.31°C (0.56°F).

SST for the period was 0.68°C (1.22°F) above the 20th century average of 15.9°C (60.6°F)—also the second highest in the 138–year record, behind 2016 by 0.14°C (0.25°F).

Arctic Sea Ice Extent
March 2017 sea ice extent was 7.5 percent below the 1981-2010 average—the smallest March ice cover since satellite records began in 1979.

Antarctic Sea Ice Extent

March 2017 sea ice extent was 34.2 percent below the 1981-2010 average—the smallest March ice cover on record.

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate: Global Climate Report for March 2017, published online April 2017, retrieved on April 19, 2017 from https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201703.

Arctic Sea Ice for February at Record Low for Second Consecutive Month

Arctic Sea ice reformed or refroze up to 60 days later than average in 2015

Arctic sea ice extent for February was the lowest extent in the satellite record for the month.  Averaging 14.22 million km², it was 1.16 million km² below the 1981 to 2010 long-term average of 15.4 million km², breaking the previous record low (February 2005) by 200,000 km², reported the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center

Antarctic sea ice extent

Antarctic sea ice extent reached its annual minimum on February 19, averaging 2.6 million km²,  the ninth lowest Antarctic sea ice minimum extent in the satellite record.

Earth’s Fever Continues: Warmest May on Record

Year-to-date also record warm: Report

The globally averaged temperature over land and ocean surfaces for May 2015 was 15.67°C (60.17°F), the highest for the month since record keeping began in 1880. Globally averaged temperature for March–May and the year-to-date (January–May) were also record highs, according to the State of the Climate Report.

• The combined average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces for May was 0.87°C (1.57°F) above the 20^th century average of 14.8°C (58.6°F)—the highest for May in the 136-year period of record, topping the previous record set in 2014 by 0.08°C (0.14°F).

• The globally-averaged sea surface temperature was 0.72°C (1.30°F) above the 20^th century average of 16.3°C (61.3°F)—the highest ever recorded for the month, topping record set in 2014 by 0.07°C (0.13°F).

• The average global temperature across land surfaces was 1.28°C (2.30°F) above the 20^th century average of 11.1°C (52.0°F), tying with 2012 as the highest May temperature on record.

• The average Arctic sea ice extent for May was about 1.89 million km² (730,000 square miles), or 5.5 percent below the 1981–2010 average, making it the third smallest May extent since records began in 1979.  [The smallest sea ice extent occurred in May 2004, when the cover shrank to about 1.82million km² (703,000 square miles,) said the report

• Antarctic sea ice during May was about 1.3 million km² (500,000 square miles), or 12.1 percent above the 1981–2010 average. The May extent was the largest Antarctic sea ice extent on record, exceeding the previous record set in 2014 by about 52,000km² (20,000 square miles).

January – May 2015

• The first five months of 2015 were the warmest such period on record across the world’s land and ocean surfaces, at 0.85°C (1.53°F) above the 20^th century average, surpassing the previous record set in 2010 by 0.09°C (0.16°F).

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate: Global Analysis for May 2015, published online June 2015, retrieved on June 19, 2015 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201505.

January–April Global Temperature Highest Ever Recorded

Global temperature rises to a new record across land and ocean surfaces: Report

During January–April 2015, the average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 0.80°C (1.44°F) above the 20th century average—the highest for the period since 1880, NCDC reported.

Global highlights: Year-to-date (January–April 2015)

• The January–April globally-averaged land surface temperature was 1.48°C  (2.66°F) above the 20^th century average—the highest for the period since records began in 1880.
• The globally-averaged sea surface temperature for the period was 0.55°C (0.99°F) above the 20^th century average, tying  with 2010 as the second highest for January–April on record, trailing 1998 by 0.04°F (0.02°C).

Global highlights: April 2015

• The April globally-averaged sea surface temperature (SST) was 0.60°C (1.08°F) above the 20th century average—the highest for April ever recorded, said NCDC.
• April’s average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 0.74°C (1.33°F) above the 20^th century average, making it the fourth highest for April on record.
• The April globally-averaged land surface temperature was 1.11°C (2.00°F) above the 20^th century average, making it the 10^th highest for April in the 1880–2015 record.

Polar Icecaps

• The average Arctic sea ice extent for April was more than 800,000 square kilometers ( 310,000 square miles) about 5.5 percent below the 1981–2010 average, or the second smallest April extent since records began in 1979, the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) reported. The 2007 April extent was 78,000 square kilometers (30,000 square miles) smaller.
• Antarctic sea ice in April was 1,657,000 square kilometers (640,000 square miles) about 22.4 percent above the 1981–2010 average, making it the largest April Antarctic sea ice extent on record, surpassing the previous record of 2014 by 26,000 square kilometers (10,000 square miles).

Source: NOAA National Climatic Data Center, State of the Climate: Global Analysis for April 2015, published online May 2015, retrieved on May 20, 2015 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201504.

Related Links

• Warmest Ever: March and Q1, 2015 April 18, 2015

Warmest Ever: March and Q1, 2015

Record low Arctic sea ice extent for March

Globally averaged temperature over land and ocean surfaces (SST) for March 2015 was the highest for the month since record keeping began 135 years ago. The average temperature was also record high for the first quarter of the year, said the State of the Climate report.

Global Highlights: March 2015

• Globally averaged temperature for land and SST was 1.53°F (0.85°C) above the 20th century average, the highest for March in the 1880–2015 record, surpassing the previous record of 2010 by 0.09°F (0.05°C).
  • Globally-averaged land surface temperature was 2.97°F (1.65°C) above  average, tied  with 1990 as the second highest for the month on record.
  • SST was 0.99°F (0.55°C) above average, third highest ever recorded for March (1880–2015).
• The average Arctic sea ice extent for March was 430,000 square miles (7.2 percent) below the 1981–2010 average—the smallest March extent since records began in 1979 (NSIDC).
• Antarctic sea ice during March was 420,000 square miles (24.3 percent) above the 1981–2010 average— second largest March Antarctic sea ice extent on record.
  • The record largest March Antarctic sea ice extent occurred in 2008 and was 100,000 square miles larger than the March 2015 extent. [1 square mile ~ 2.6km²]

March 2015 Selected Climate Anomalies and Events Map (NOAA)

Global highlights: Year-to-date (January–March 2015)

• Globally averaged temperature for land and SST was 1.48°F (0.82°C) above the 20^th century average, the highest for the first quarter in the 1880–2015 record, surpassing the previous record of 2002 by 0.09°F (0.05°C).
• Globally-averaged land surface temperature was 2.86°F (1.59°C) above the 20^th century average, the highest for January–March on record, surpassing the previous record of 2002 by 0.09°F (0.05°C)
• SST for Q1 was 0.95°F (0.53°C) above the 20^th century average, the third highest for January–March in the 1880–2015 record.

NOAA National Climatic Data Center, State of the Climate: Global Analysis for March 2015, published online April 2015, retrieved on April 18, 2015 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2015/03.

December–February Warmest on Record

February 2015 second warmest February on record: NOAA

• December–February warmest on record
• February 2015 second warmest February on record
• February Arctic sea ice extent third smallest on record

Globally averaged temperatures were the highest on record for both the year-to-date (January–February) and seasonal (December–February) periods, said NOAA in its State of the Climate report.

Meantime, February’s average global temperature, land and ocean surfaces combined, was the second highest in the 1880-2015 record, according to the report.

Global highlights: February 2015

• February’s  average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was  0.82°C (1.48°F) above the 20th century average.
• The globally-averaged land surface temperature was 1.68°C (3.02°F) above the 20th century average. This was also the second highest for February in the 1880–2015 record. The highest temperature occurred in 2002, at 1.70°C (3.06°F) above average.
• February’s globally-averaged sea surface temperature (SST) was 0.51°C (0.92°F) above the 20th century average of 15.9°C (60.6°F). This was the third highest for February in the 136-year record period.
• The average Arctic sea ice extent was 600,000 square kilometers  (370,000 square miles), or 6.2 percent below the 1981–2010 average, or the third smallest February extent since records began in 1979.
• Antarctic sea ice during February was 400,000 square kilometers (250,000 square miles), or  21.4 percent above the 1981–2010 average. This was the sixth largest February Antarctic sea ice extent on record but smallest since 2012.

Global highlights: December–February 2015

• Average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 0.79°C (1.42°F) above the 20^th century average of 12.1°C (53.8°F) during December–February, the highest for that period in the 1880–2015 record ( previous record set in 2007, ).
• Globally-averaged land surface temperature was 1.46°C (2.63°F) above the 20^th century average of 8.1°C (46.4°F), tying with 2007 as the highest for the period.
• Globally-averaged SST was 0.54°C (0.97°F ) above the 20^th century average, or third highest for the period.

Global highlights: Year-to-date (January–February 2015)

• Average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was the highest for the first two months of 2015 at 0.79°C  (1.42°F) above the 20^th century average,  surpassing the previous records of 2002 and 2007 by 0.04°C  (0.07°F).
• The globally-averaged land surface temperature was 1.53°C  (2.75°F) above the 20^th century average, or the second highest for the period. The highest temperature occurred in 2002 (1.55°C or 2.79°F above average).
• SST global average was 0.52°C (0.94°F) above the 20^th century average, or the third highest for the two-month period in the 1880–2015 record.

Source: NOAA National Climatic Data Center, State of the Climate: Global Analysis for February 2015, published online March 2015, retrieved on March 21, 2015 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2015/02

January 2015 Second Warmest on Record

For the Record:

Arctic sea ice extent for January 6.3 percent below 1981–2010 average

The globally averaged temperature over land and ocean surfaces last month was 0.77°C (1.39°F) above the 20^th century average, the second highest for January since record keeping began in 1880, said the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

[The warmest January on record was in 2007, at 1.55°F (0.86°C) above average.]

Other Global Highlights:

• The globally-averaged land surface temperature was 2.57°F (1.43°C) above the 20^th century average, making it also the second highest on record for January. The warmest January was in 2007, at 3.31°F (1.84°C) above average, while sea surface temperature (SST) was 0.95°F (0.53°C) above average— the third highest for January.

• The average Arctic sea ice extent for January was just over 906,000km² (350,000 square miles) or 6.3 percent below the 1981–2010 average, making it the third smallest January extent since records began in 1979.

• Antarctic sea ice during January was 2,300,000km² (890,000 square miles), or 44.6 percent above the 1981–2010 average, making it the largest January extent on record, surpassing the previous record set in 2008 by 570,000km² (220,000 square miles) or 33 percent.

Selected Significant Climate Anomalies and Events – January 2015

NOAA National Climatic Data Center, State of the Climate: Global Analysis for January 2015, published online February 2015, retrieved on February 21, 2015 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2015/1.

Cloudbursts Kill Dozens in India

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,276 Days Left

[September 17, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. 

• SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,276 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

• Symbolic countdown to the ‘worst day’ in human history began on May 15, 2011...

.

Global Disasters/ Significant Events

Dozens are killed or missing following cloudbursts in Uttarakhand state, northern India

• India. At least 80 people have been killed or were reported missing after a series of cloudbursts triggered flash flooding, causing landslides in northern India’s state of Uttarakhand.
  • Cloudbursts cause rainfall at a rate equal to or greater than 100 mm (3.94 inches) per hour.

• Northern Hemisphere Ice Cover. Arctic Sea Ice Extent shrank to 3,398,785.21 km² on September 16, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

Related Links

• Anthropogenic Hell Melting Icebox Posted September 13, 2012
• Image of the Day: ASIE Posted September 7, 2012
• Arctic Sea Ice Extent Could Fall to 3M Km² Posted September 3, 2012
• Arctic Sea Ice Extent Down to 3.87M km² and Melting Posted August 31, 2012
• Arctic Sea Ice Extent Breaks Record Low and Melting Posted August 28, 2012
• Arctic Sea Ice Extent Rapidly Decreasing Posted August 21, 2012

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

GLOBAL WARNING

• WARNING: Human impact 2.85 x Earth’s diminishing carrying capacity
• WARNING: RAPID DECLINE IN PROGRESS!

Anthropogenic Hell Melting Icebox

IF YOU WRECKED A HOLIDAY INN MOTEL ROOM , YOU’D PROBABLY GO TO JAIL.

Northern Hemisphere Ice Cover Continues Shrinking

The Arctic Sea Ice Extent shrank to 3.46 million square kilometers (3,456,695.22 km²) on September 12, 2012, according to National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

 

Multi sensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent – Northern Hemisphere (MASIE -NH), September 11, 2012.  Source: The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)

Northern Hemisphere ice cover (million km²). Center for Ocean and Ice, Danish Meteorological Institute

Original Caption: The total area of sea ice is the sum of First Year Ice (FYI), Multi Year Ice (MYI) and the area of ambiguous ice types, from the OSISAF ice type product. However, the total estimated ice area is underestimated due to unclassified coastal regions where mixed land/sea pixels confuse the applied ice type algorithm. The shown sea ice extent values are therefore recommended be used qualitatively in relation to ice extent values from other years shown in the figure. In late 2012 sea ice climatology and anomaly data will be available here.

Related Links

• Image of the Day: ASIE Posted September 7, 2012
• Arctic Sea Ice Extent Could Fall to 3M Km² Posted September 3, 2012
• Arctic Sea Ice Extent Down to 3.87M km² and Melting Posted August 31, 2012
• Arctic Sea Ice Extent Breaks Record Low and Melting Posted August 28, 2012
• Arctic Sea Ice Extent Rapidly Decreasing Posted August 21, 2012

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

GLOBAL WARNING

• WARNING: Human impact 2.85 x Earth’s diminishing carrying capacity
• WARNING: RAPID DECLINE IN PROGRESS!

Image of the Day: ASIE

Northern Hemisphere Ice Cover falls below 3.6 million km² —FIRE-EARTH 

As of September 5, 2011, the Arctic sea ice extent (ASIE) was 3,686,199.43 km² according to NSIDC.

• Daily average ice melt for September currently stands at more than 87,000 km², NSIDC data shows.

Arctic sea ice extent fell below 3.6 million square kilometers (1.39 million square miles) on September 6, 2012, FIRE-EARTH estimates.

FEWW model shows the Arctic sea ice extent could fall to about 3 million km² (1.15 million square miles) during the 2012 melt season with a probability of 0.5 [P = 54%]

Multi sensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent – Northern Hemisphere (MASIE -NH), September 5, 2012.  Source: The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)

Related Links

• Arctic Sea Ice Extent Could Fall to 3M Km² Posted September 3, 2012

• Arctic Sea Ice Extent Down to 3.87M km² and Melting Posted August 31, 2012

• Arctic Sea Ice Extent Breaks Record Low and Melting Posted August 28, 2012
• Arctic Sea Ice Extent Rapidly Decreasing Posted August 21, 2012

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

GLOBAL WARNING

• WARNING: Human impact 2.85 x Earth’s diminishing carrying capacity
• WARNING: RAPID DECLINE IN PROGRESS!

Arctic Sea Ice Extent Could Fall to 3M Km²

UPDATED September 4, 2012 @ 01:44UTC

Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Cover Shrinking Rapidly

Arctic sea ice extent shrank to about 3.65 million square kilometers (1.41 million square miles) on September 2, 2012, FIRE-EARTH estimates.

FEWW model shows the Arctic sea ice extent could fall to about 3 million km² (1.15 million square miles) during the 2012 melt season with a probability of 0.5 [P = 54%]

Arctic sea ice extent as of September 1, 2012.  Image Source: NSIDC

Arctic sea ice extent, September 1, 2012. FIRE-EARTH estimates the NH ice cover fell below 3.65 million km² (1.41 million square miles) on September 2, 2012.  Image Source: NSIDC

Arctic Sea Ice Cover:  Denmark’s Center for Ocean and Ice (DMI)

Original caption:  Current Sea Ice extent. Total sea ice extent on the northern hemisphere since 2005. The ice extent values are calculated from the ice type data from the Ocean and Sea Ice, Satellite Application Facility (OSISAF), where areas with ice concentration higher than 30% are classified as ice.        The total area of sea ice is the sum of First Year Ice (FYI), Multi Year Ice (MYI) and the area of ambiguous ice types, from the OSISAF ice type product. However, the total estimated ice area is underestimated due to unclassified coastal regions where mixed land/sea pixels confuse the applied ice type algorithm. The shown sea ice extent values are therefore recommended be used qualitatively in relation to ice extent values from other years shown in the figure.

Related Links

• Arctic Sea Ice Extent Down to 3.87M km² and Melting Posted August 31, 2012

• Arctic Sea Ice Extent Breaks Record Low and Melting Posted August 28, 2012
• Arctic Sea Ice Extent Rapidly Decreasing Posted August 21, 2012

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

GLOBAL WARNING

• WARNING: Human impact 2.85 x Earth’s diminishing carrying capacity
• WARNING: RAPID DECLINE IN PROGRESS!

Arctic Sea Ice Extent Down to 3.87M km² and Melting

Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Cover Continues Shrinking

Arctic sea ice extent shrank to about 3.87 million square kilometers (1.49 million square miles) on August 29, 2012 and continued melting, FIRE-EARTH estimates. The new record low was 100,000 km² below the September 18, 2007 daily extent of 4.17 million km².

FEWW model shows the Arctic sea ice extent could fall below 3.8 million km² during the 2012 melt season with a probability of 0.8 [P≥77%]

Arctic sea ice extent, August 29, 2012. FIRE-EARTH estimates the NH ice cover has fallen below 3.87 million km².  Image Source: NSIDC

Arctic sea ice extent as of August 29, 2012. The ice extents is now the lowest in the satellite record.  Image Source: NSIDC

Related Links

• Arctic Sea Ice Extent Breaks Record Low and Melting Posted August 28, 2012
• Arctic Sea Ice Extent Rapidly Decreasing Posted August 21, 2012

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

GLOBAL WARNING

• WARNING: Human impact 2.85 x Earth’s diminishing carrying capacity
• WARNING: RAPID DECLINE IN PROGRESS!

Arctic Sea Ice Extent Breaks Record Low and Melting

Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Cover Falls to Record Low

Arctic sea ice extent shrank to 4.10 million square kilometers (1.58 million square miles) on August 26, 2012 and continued melting. The new record low was 70,000 km² below the September 18, 2007 daily extent of 4.17 million km², National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) reported.

FEWW model shows the Arctic sea ice extent could fall below 3.8 million km² during the 2012 melt season with a probability of 0.7 [P≥72%]

Arctic sea ice extent as of August 26, 2012, along with daily ice extent data for 2007, the previous record low year, and 1980, the record high year. The six lowest ice extents in the satellite record have occurred in the last six years (2007 to 2012). Source: NSIDC

Arctic sea ice extent for September 18, 2007, daily extent of 4.17 million km², and August 26, 2012 (right), 4.10 million km².  Source: NSIDC

[Note: NSIDC  has changed the date and extent of the 2007 minimum to September 18, 2007 and daily extent of 4.17 million km² from the previous figure of 4.28 million km²]

• See also: Arctic Sea Ice Extent Rapidly Decreasing Posted August 21, 2012

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

GLOBAL WARNING

• WARNING: Human impact 2.85 x Earth’s diminishing carrying capacity
• WARNING: RAPID DECLINE IN PROGRESS!

Arctic Sea Ice Extent Rapidly Decreasing

Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent drops below 4.5 million km²: FIRE-EARTH

FIRE-EARTH estimates the Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent dropped below 4.5 million km² on August 19, 2012.

A week earlier (August 13, 2012), the Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was 5.09 million square kilometers (1.97 million square miles), which was 2.69 million km² below the 1979 to 2000 average extent for the date, and 483,000 km² below the previous record low set in 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

FEWW model shows the Arctic sea ice extent could fall below 3.8 million km² during the 2012 melt season with a probability of 0.7 [P≥65%]

Arctic ice cover shrank to a new record low of 4.28 km² in 2007, about 23 percent below the previous record set in 2005 and almost 40 percent lower than the 1979 – 2000 average.

Arctic Ice Cover Maps for August 13 and 19, 2012. Source: NSIDC

Arctic Sea Ice Extent: Area of ocean with at least 15% sea ice. Source: NSIDC

The graph above shows Arctic sea ice extent as of August 13, 2012, along with daily ice extent data for the previous five years. 2012 is shown in blue, 2011 in orange, 2010 in pink, 2009 in navy, 2008 in purple, and 2007 in green. The gray area around the average line shows the two standard deviation range of the data. Source: NSIDC

“The average pace of ice loss since late June has been rapid at just over 100,000 square kilometers (38,000 square miles) per day. However, this pace nearly doubled for a few days in early August during a major Arctic cyclonic storm,” said NSIDC.

Related Links

• U.S. Disaster Impact Leaps 24 Folds Posted August 1, 2012
• WARNING: Human impact 2.85 x Earth’s diminishing carrying capacity
• WARNING: RAPID DECLINE IN PROGRESS!

Drought – Recent Links

• U.S. Disaster Areas Expand as Drought Deepens Posted August 1, 2012
• Extreme and Exceptional Drought Spread Across Midwest, South Posted August 2, 2012
• Wildfires Destroy Oklahoma Town Posted August 5, 2012

• Watching Events Unfold, Frame by Frame, Exactly as Forecast Posted July 20, 2012
• Deadly Heat Continues to Devour U.S. Crops Posted July 19, 2012

• Drought Continues to Plague Two-Thirds of Continental U.S. Posted July 17, 2012
• Largest Ever U.S. Disaster Continues Unfolding July 14, 2012
• Drought 2012 Posted on January 8, 2012
• Drought and deluge 

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
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2010 Tied For Warmest Year on Record: NOAA

2010 joint warmest and  wettest year on record

Last year tied with 2005 as the warmest year on record for global surface temperature

• The 2010 global land surface temperature were 0.96ºC (1.73º F) above the 20th century average.

• Global ocean surface temperatures in 2010 tied with 2005 as the third warmest at 0.49ºC (0.88ºF ) above the 20th century average.

• 2010 was also the wettest year on record, compared to global average precipitation.

Highlights from NASA Climate Section:

• September Arctic sea ice is now declining at a rate of 11.5 percent per decade, relative to the 1979 to 2000 average. The September 2010 extent was the third lowest in the satellite record.
• As of December 10, 2010, the CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere were 391 ppm.
• Data from NASA’s Grace satellite show that the land ice sheets in both Anarctica and Greenland are losing mass. The continent of Antarctica (left chart) has been losing more than 100 cubic kilometers (24 cubic miles) of ice per year since 2002.
• Sea levels have risen by 53mm since 1993, and by 100 to 200mm since the past century. Sea rise is caused by the thermal expansion of sea water due to climate warming and widespread melting of land ice.

“2010 tied with 2005 as the warmest year of the global surface temperature record, beginning in 1880. This was the 34th consecutive year with global temperatures above the 20th century average. For the contiguous United States alone, the 2010 average annual temperature was above normal, resulting in the 23rd warmest year on record,” NOAA researchers say.

The following is mirrored from NOAA website:

2010 Global Climate Highlights

Global surface temperature anomalies for 2010. Click image to enlarge.

• Combined global land and ocean annual surface temperatures for 2010 tied with 2005 as the warmest such period on record at 1.12 F (0.62 C) above the 20th century average. The range of confidence (to the 95 percent level) associated with the combined surface temperature is +/- 0.13 F (+/- 0.07 C).*
• The global land surface temperatures for 2010 were tied for the second warmest on record at 1.73 F (0.96 C) above the 20th century average. The range of confidence associated with the land surface temperature is +/- 0.20 F (+/- 0.11 C).
• Global ocean surface temperatures for 2010 tied with 2005 as the third warmest on record, at 0.88 F (0.49 C) above the 20th century average. The range of confidence associated with the ocean surface temperature is +/- 0.11 F (+/- 0.06 C).
• In 2010 there was a dramatic shift in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which influences global temperature and precipitation patterns — when a moderate-to-strong El Niño transitioned to La Niña conditions by July. At the end of November, La Niña was moderate-to-strong.
• According to the Global Historical Climatology Network, 2010 was the wettest year on record, in terms of global average precipitation. As with any year, precipitation patterns were highly variable from region to region.
• The 2010 Pacific hurricane season had seven named storms and three hurricanes, the fewest on record since the mid-1960s when scientists started using satellite observations. By contrast, the Atlantic season was extremely active, with 19 named storms and 12 hurricanes. The year tied for third- and second-most storms and hurricanes on record, respectively.
• The Arctic sea ice extent had a record long growing season, with the annual maximum occurring at the latest date, March 31, since records began in 1979. Despite the shorter-than-normal melting season, the Arctic still reached its third smallest annual sea ice minimum on record behind 2007 and 2008. The Antarctic sea ice extent reached its eighth smallest annual maximum extent in March, while in September, the Antarctic sea ice rapidly expanded to its third largest extent on record.
• A negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) in January and February helped usher in very cold Arctic air to much of the Northern Hemisphere. Record cold and major snowstorms with heavy accumulations occurred across much of eastern North America, Europe and Asia. The February AO index reached -4.266, the largest negative anomaly since records began in 1950.
• From mid-June to mid-August, an unusually strong jet stream shifted northward of western Russia while plunging southward into Pakistan. The jet stream remained locked in place for weeks, bringing an unprecedented two-month heat wave to Russia and contributing to devastating floods in Pakistan at the end of July.

2010 Selected Climate Anomalies and Events Map. Source: NOAA

Top 10 Climate Anomalies in 2010
1.    Russian – European – Asian Heat Waves     (Summer)
2.    2010 as [near] warmest year on record     (calendar year)
3.    Pakistani Flooding     (Late July – August)
4.    El Niño to La Niña Transition     (Mid-to-Late Boreal Spring)
5.    Negative Arctic Oscillation     (Early 2010 )
6.    Brazilian Drought     (Ongoing)
7-tie.     Historically Inactive NE Pacific Hurricane Season     (May 15 – Nov 30)
7-tie.     Historic N. Hemispheric Snow Retreat     (January – June )
9.    Minimum Sea Ice Extent     (mid-September)
10.    China Drought    (First Half of 2010)

Contenders for the Top 10 List

• China Floods     (Early Aug)
• Large Iceberg Breaks off Petermann Glacier    (5-Aug)
• Igor & Julia Simultaneous Category 4 Hurricanes     (15-Sep)
• Super Typhoon Megi     (Oct 12-24 )
• Coral Reef Bleaching     (NH Spring -Summer)
• Cyclone Phet     (Early June)
• Bangladesh Driest Monsoon Season since 1994     (Warm Season)
• Hurricane Celia     (Jun 19-28)
• Summer Snow in Australia     (18-Jan)
• Atlantic Cyclone Xynthia     (27-Feb)
• European Cold Snap & Winter Storm     (Early Jan)
• South American Cold Snap     (July)
• Extreme Winter Weather in Europe**     (Most of December)
• Australian Flooding**     (25-Dec)

** This event occurred after the top ten voting, but may have warranted top ten placement.

Click image to enlarge. (Source: NOAA)

See Also:

State of the Climate Global Hazards

• Global Hazards/Events, December 2010 ( Drought and wildfires, Flooding, severe storms, severe winter weather.)
• Global Hazards/Events, November 2010 (Hurricane Tomas, A rare early season winter storm across the U.S. states of Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, Record warm temperatures across western Russia.)
• Global Hazards/Events, October 2010 (Hurricane Tomas, Super Typhoon Megi, Tornado Outbreak in Arizona, etc.)
• Global Hazards/Events, September 2010 (Typhoon Fanapi hits Taiwan & China, 2 tornadoes in New York City, Tropical Storm Earl in Nove Scotia, wildfire in Colorado, etc.)
• Global Hazards/Events, August 2010 (Flooding in China & Pakistan, Tropical Storm Dianmu in South Korea, heat wave/drought in Russia, etc.)
• Global Hazards/Events, July 2010 (Typhoon Conson in Philippines/Vietnam, heat wave in U.S. & Canada, monsoonal rains in Pakistan & India, severe flooding in Northern China, heavy rains in Texas & Mexico, heat wave & wildfires in Western Russia, etc.)
• Global Hazards/Events, June 2010 (Hurricane Alex in Mexico/Belize, Winter Tornado in New South Wales, Tornado in Ohio, Flooding in Arkansas, etc.)
• Global Hazards/Events, May 2010 (Tropical Storm Agatha, Flooding in China and Central Europe, Drought in Hawaii, Tropical Cyclone Laila, etc.)
• Global Hazards/Events, April 2010 (Tornado kills 10 in Mississippi, heatwave in Northeastern U.S., Nor’wester kills 137 in Eastern India/Bangladesh, heavy rainfall causes mudslides/landslides in Peru and Brazil, volcanic eruption in Iceland, etc.)
• Global Hazards/Events, March 2010 (Tropical Cyclone Tomas strikes Fiji, drought in Hawaii, Nor’easter hits U.S. East Coast, major sandstorm in China, tropical storm Hubert in Madagascar, record heavy rainfall in northeastern Australia, etc.)
• Global Hazards/Events, February 2010 (Xynthia attacks Western Europe, Mid-Atlantic/Deep South U.S. snows, Nor’easter hits U.S. East Coast, drought in Southern China, avalanches in Afghanistan, record heat in Western Australia, etc.)
• Global Hazards/Events, January 2010 (Northern Asia extreme cold/snowfall, freezing temperatures in Bangladesh/Nepal, flooding in Egypt/Israel/Kenya, cold damages citrus crop in Florida, wintry precipitation cripples southern U.S., etc.)

NOAA National Climatic Data Center, State of the Climate: Global Hazards for November 2010, published online December 2010, retrieved on January 10, 2011 from http://www.noaa.gov.

Related Links:

• Global Climate Extremes INTENSIFYING