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USA, Ukraine, Sri Lanka, Russia, Romania, Pakistan, Mexico, Kenya, India, Germany, France, China, Bangladesh, Belgium, Austria hit by major flooding
Widespread flooding has left scores of people dead, hundreds of thousands displaced, tens of thousands of homes destroyed, hundreds of cities, towns, villages inundated…
Storms seem to be competing for dumping the largest amount of precipitation on multiple regions, with record rainfalls reported across many areas.
France flooding: Extreme rain events, deadly flooding continues…
“Torrential rain brings flooding from Paris to Prague”>Torrential rain brings flooding from Paris to Prague…
Earthquakes caused the deadliest disasters in 2000-09 decade: UNISDR
In its recent News Brief, United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction Secretariat (UNISDR) reported that about 60 per cent of the people killed by disasters in the past decade died as a result of earthquakes.
List of Top 10 Natural disasters by number of deaths – 2009. Source: UNISDR. Click image to enlarge.
“Earthquakes are the deadliest natural hazard of the past ten years and remain a serious threat for millions of people worldwide as eight out of the ten most populous cities in the world are on earthquake fault-lines,” said Margareta Wahlström, UN Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction.
“Disaster risk reduction is an indispensable investment for each earthquake-prone city and each community. Seismic risk is a permanent risk and cannot be ignored. Earthquakes can happen anywhere at any time. Risk reduction will be a main priority in the Haiti reconstruction process, and we will be working with our partners to ensure that it is central in the reconstruction.”
The Center for Research on Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) has released the following statistics covering the past 10 years:
Number of disasters for 2000-20009 period: 3,852 disasters
Death toll from the disasters: 780,000 people
Total number of people affected by the disasters: about a thirs of the planet’s population (more than two billion people)
Cost of the damage caused by the disasters: About 1 trillion (US$960 billion).
The worst hit continent in terms of human losses: Asia, accounting for 85 per cent of all fatalities.
Disaster Types
The worst category: Earthquakes, accounting for 60 percent of the fatalities
Second Worst Disaster Category: Storms, accounting for 22 percent of the deaths.
Third deadliest: Extremes of Temperature, accounting for 11 percent of the casualties.
The deadliest disasters of the 2000-2009 decade:
Indian Ocean Tsunami: Struck several countries in Asia (2004), leaving 226,408 dead
Cyclone Nargis: Struck Myanmar (2008), killing 138,366 people
Sichuan earthquake: China (2008) killed at least 87,476 people
Pakistan (2005) earthquake: Killed 73,338 people w
Heat waves in Europe (2003): Killed 72,210
Human impact by disaster types. Source: UNISDR. Click image to enlarge.
“The number of catastrophic events has more than doubled since the 1980-1989 decade. In contrast, the numbers of affected people have increased at a slower rate. This may be due to better community preparedness and prevention,” said Professor Guha-Sapir, Director of CRED.
Of the more than two billion affected people
44 per cent were affected by floods
30 per cent by droughts
ONLY 4 per cent by earthquakes
The death toll for the last 3 decades (annual average)
2000 decade: 78,000 people per year(ppy)
1990s decade: 43,000 ppy
1980s decade: 75,000 (worsened by two major droughts and famines in Ethiopia and Sudan)
Natural Hazard Events (annual average) and Estimated Economic Damage
2000 decade: 385 at a cost of US$96 billion
1990 decade: 285 at a cost of US$99 billion
1980 decade: 165 at a cost of US$39 billion
Percentage of people killed by natural disasters by region. Source: UNISDR. Click image to enlarge.
In 2009, some 10,416 people were killed in 327 disasters and a further 113 million others were affected. Cost of the economic damage: US$34.9 billion. {there were no major disasters). the total number of people killed and affected by disasters was lower than in 2008, as no major disaster occurred.
In contrast, the 2000-2008 annual averages were 85,535 (deaths), 229,792,397 (affected) and US$102.7 billion (economic damages).
Natural disaster occurrence by disaster type. Source: UNISDR. Click image to enlarge.
The worst disaster in 2009
The worst disaster in 2009 (highest death toll) was the 7.6 magnitude earthquake that struck the island of Sumatra, Indonesia, on 30 September, killing at least 1,100 people. It was followed by typhoons Morakot, Ketsana and Parma and numerous floods that killed many in Asia, which was home to six of the top 10 countries with the highest number of disaster-related deaths.
Most populous cities on EQ fault-lines (A-Z): Delhi, Jakarta, Kolkata Mexico City, Mumbai, New York, Shanghai and Tokyo.
Source: UNISDR; edited by FEWW
Note: IF the numbers of fatalities/casualties in a given disaster are claimed to be larger than a few hundreds, and no video or photographic evidence is presented to support the claim, those figures should be carefully analyzed. Governments and aid organizations invariably exaggerate the casualty figures to maximize the inflow of aid and donations for self-serving purposes and interests other than those of the victims. See footnote at https://feww.wordpress.com/earthquake/haiti-earthquake-disaster/
Hurricane Gustav VII [the seventh storm of the Atlantic hurricane season] is Heading Toward Haiti
With powerful winds of 140 km/h (85mph), Gustav is churning through Caribbeans heading toward south-west Haiti, likely to wreak havoc and cause much devastation in the region.
Hurricane Gustav is seen in this satellite image dated August 26, 2008. REUTERS/NOAA/Handout
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone – NOAA/NWS
This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time. NOAA-NWS
These graphics show probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 64 kt…74 mph (hurricane force). These wind speed probability graphics are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. Each graphic provides cumulative probabilities that wind speeds of at least 74 mph will occur during cumulative time periods at each specific point on the map. The cumulative periods begin at the start of the forecast period and extend through the entire 5-day forecast period at cumulative 12-hour intervals (i.e., 0-12 h, 0-24 h, 0-36 h, … , 0-120 h). An individual graphic is produced for each cumulative interval, and the capability to zoom and animate through the periods is provided. To assess the overall risk of experiencing winds of at least 74 mph at any location, the 120-h graphics are recommended.NOAA-NWS
Gustav Could Become a Cat. Two Hurricane Before Landfall in Haiti
Gustav became stronger as it neared the south coast of Haiti, NHC reported. Here’re the highlights of NHC Hurricane Advisory:
A hurricane warning remains in effect from Barahona in the Dominican Republic westward to Le Mole St Nicholas Haiti.
A hurricane watch is also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Las Tunas, Granma, Holguin, Santiago de Cuba and Guantanamo. A hurricane watch is also in effect for Jamaica.
At 8:00 am EDT the center of hurricane Gustav was located near latitude 17.5 north, longitude 72.0 west or about 125 km south-southeast of Port Au Prince Haiti and about 425 km southeast of Guantanamo Cuba.
Gustav continues moving toward the northwest at 15 km/hr today with a turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed forecast on Wednesday. On this track this hurricane should move over Southwestern Haiti later today and near or just south of Eastern Cuba on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 Km/hr with higher gusts. Gustav is a category one hurricane on The Saffir-Simpson scale. The hurricane could become a category Two hurricane before landfall in Haiti later today.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 km from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 110 km.
The latest minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).
Hurricane Gustav – GOES Infrared AVN Color Floater Imagery – 30 minute updates
Rainfall accumulations of 4 to 7 inches over southern Hispaniola and Jamaica with isolated maximum amounts of up to 15 inches are possible. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. — Forecaster Brown/Pasch
“Oil prices in Asia rose Tuesday on concerns Hurricane Gustav may disrupt oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico.” AP reported.
“It’s hard to predict where Gustav will strike,” an analyst in Singapore reported. “But the market is reacting to it and edging up some.”
“Light, sweet crude for October delivery was up 58 cents at $115.69 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore. The contract rose 52 cents overnight to settle at $115.11 a barrel.”
On its forecast track and anticipated strength, Gustav could cause significant disruptions to offshore oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico.
Japan’s Self-Defense Forces personnel observed Monday hot volcanic plumes about seven kilometers southwest of the summit of Mt. Kurikoma, a 1,627-meter-high volcano located on the border of Miyagi, Iwate and Akita prefectures, Yomiuri Shimbun reported.
Aerial observation from a helicopter showed plumes rising from several spots near both Hanayama in Kurihara, and Yu no Hama hot-spring spa.
Sadato Ueki of Tohoku University’s Research Center for the Prediction of Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions said the plumes might be volcanic gases rising to the surface, or steam coming from underground hot water channels whose course was diverted by the powerful Mw 6.8 quake Saturday. The Iwate quake struck about 22km NW of the Mt. Kurikoma summit.
“There’s a possibility that volcanic gases that had been confined below ground are gushing out through fissures in the mountain created by the earthquake,” he said. However, he ruled out increased volcanic activity on Mt. Kurikoma, because the plumes were very far from the volcano’s summit.
Kurikoma volcano last erupted in 1950.
MT. KURIKOMA is a dormant stratovolcano stretching across three prefectures (states) of Miyagi, Iwate and Akita, standing high at an altitude of 1,627.7m.
Kurikoma volcano seen from the SSE with its summit at the right-center, the satellitic cone of Daichimori on the left, and Higashi-Kurikoma on the right. On the opposite side of the volcano, the summit is cut by a 4-km-wide caldera breached to the north that is partially filled by the Tsurugi-dake central cone, once mined for sulfur. (Caption: Source) Image Copyright: Shingo Takeuchi (Japanese Quaternary Volcanoes database, RIODB, http://www.aist.go.jp/RIODB/strata/VOL_JP/index.htm).See FEWW Fair Use Notice!
Coordinates: 38° 57′ 0″ N, 140° 46′ 48″ E
Decimal: 38.95°, 140.78°
The following excerpts are from an article written by Wu Weilin, Epoch Times Staff [ May 28, 2008 ] Full Article
Was the recent devastating earthquake in Sichuan, China predicted before it struck? Did the Chinese regime ignore earthquake warnings and thereby caused the loss of more than 86,000 lives?
“On July 28, 2006, the Director of the China Earthquake Administration, Chen Jianmin, was speaking on a program of the regime’s mouth piece, China’s Central TV station. He stated with certainty that earthquakes were predictable. But immediately after the recent devastation in Sichuan, Chinese officials claimed that the prediction of earthquakes was a tough task worldwide. Another commentator said that earthquake prediction in China is a political issue.” Said Wu Weilin of Epoch Times.
[Wrapping it up!] Soldiers march to scatter disinfectant in Yingxiu town of Wenchuan county, the epicentre of the earthquake, Sichuan province May 26, 2008. REUTERS/Stringer The image may be subject to copyright. See FEWW Fair Use Notice!
What Happened to the Predictions?
“According to Chen, China has been predicting earthquakes since the Xingtai earthquake back in 1966, which killed 8,064 people. ‘Through continuous scientific research and information gained from many actual cases, we can make a prediction on a certain type of earthquake.’ However, after the earthquake in Sichuan took place, Zhang Ziaodong from the China Earthquake Networks Center held a press conference at China’s State Department on May 13. At the conference Zhang denied the quake in Sichuan was predictable and said that predicting earthquakes was a ‘difficult task worldwide.'”
Why did the Chinese media stay quiet about this important issue? “A frontline reporter disclosed that Beijing had sent out rules on reporting the earthquake, ‘To propagate positive, constructive news and forbidding criticism and introspective articles.’ Recently, according to our source, Beijing has officially banned discussing the subject of earthquake prediction in public.”
“However, more and more information has indicated accurate prediction on the quake had been presented to Beijing on many occasions. The communist military had also taken preventative measures based on the predictions.”
Predictions Had Saved Lives Before, Why Not This Time?
“Chen also said during an interview with CCTV two years ago, that following an accurate prediction, a quake that took place in China on February 4, 1975, only took 1,300 lives instead of 100,000. Chen also gave examples from overseas, how predicting earthquakes had cut down the number of deaths – only three died in California in 2003 and 40 in Japan in 2004, two countries where earthquake prediction was released before the event.
“By May 24, 2008, the Sichuan quake was estimated to have killed 60,560, injured 352,290, and 26,221 people were still missing, according to information released from China’s State Department. A Chinese social economist, He Qinglian, commented about the difference in speeches coming out of Beijing about quake prediction before and after Sichuan, ‘In China, earthquake prediction is pure science and earthquake forecasting announcement is pure politics. This is how it works in China, whether in the past or present.‘” [emphasis added.]
Jakarta – Indonesian authorities on Thursday urged residents living around the slopes of Mount Semeru in Indonesia’s crowded East Java province to keep their distance from the active volcano, which appears to be heating up.
Vulcanologists upgraded the alert status of Mount Semeru volcano to level three, one level below a full state of alert, after the 3,676-metre-high volcano on Wednesday sent hot lava as much as 3,000 metres down its slopes.
Villagers and farmers were urged ‘not to conduct activity at a radius of 4 kilometres from the crater, especially around the south-east of the volcano’s slopes,’ said Surono, head of Indonesia’s Centre for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation at the directorate general of volcanology.
Surono, who like many Indonesians goes only by one name, appealed to residents living on the riverbanks along three different rivers to be cautious of threats posed by lava streams.
However, no immediate evacuation is being considered for residents living in a number villages in the potential danger zone, he said, adding that a team of experts is intensively monitoring Mount Semeru’s activity round-the-clock.
The Mount Semeru volcano, 780 kilometres east of Jakarta, is a popular tourist destination, especially for hikers. Semeru is one of Indonesia’s most active volcanoes.
The Indonesian archipelago, straddling the seismically active ‘Ring of Fire,’ has the world’s highest density of volcanoes. Of its 500 volcanoes, 128 are active and 65 are listed as dangerous. (Source) Copyright respective author or news agency.
The climb to the summit of Semeru is a 2-3 day walk. The mountain stages minor eruptions (like in the photograph) every 20 – 40 minutes. The photo was taken in late afternoon (August 2003) and simply involved walking from the campsite at the base of the climb to the summit around to the west so that the sun was at my back, then waiting for the eruption to start. The most striking aspect of the photo is the colour caused by the almost perpendicular rays of the sun hitting the cloud of dust and steam escaping a couple of thousand metres into the sky from the crater. The photo typifies the fact that Indonesia sits in the middle of the “Ring of Fire”. The many spectacles presented by the landscapes, the festivals and the people of Indonesia never cease to truly amaze me. Photo and caption credit: Campbell Bridge (via Trek Earth at:http://www.trekearth.com/gallery/Asia/Indonesia/photo109462.htm)
Semeru: The Most Active Volcano of Java
Semeru also Gunung Semeru is the highest and one of most active volcanoes of Java. Known also as Mahameru (Great Mountain), it is very steep and rises abruptly above the coastal plains of eastern Java. Maars containing crater lakes have formed along a line through the summit. Semeru lies at the south end of the Tengger Volcanic Complex. The steep-sided volcano, also referred to as Mahameru (Great Mountain), rises abruptly to 3676 m above coastal plains to the south. Semeru’s eruptive history is extensive. Since 1818, at least 55 eruptions have been recorded (10 of which resulted in fatalities) consisting of both lava flows and pyroclastic flows. More than 500 people have been killed by Semeru’s eruptions during the last 30 years. Semeru has been in almost continuous eruption since 1967. (Source 1 and 2 )
Semeru is one of many volcanoes in the Pacific Ring of Fire. Graphic courtesy of Darwin VAAC.
Semeru, a stratovolcano, has erupted at least 55 times since 1818. The eruptions are commonly moderate to moderately large (VEI of 2 to 3) and explosive. This photo, taken November 4, 1982, shows a small cloud associated with a Strombolian eruption(relatively low-level volcanic eruptions) . Photo by Jack Lockwood, U.S. Geological Survey. (Source)
Strombolian eruptions are relatively low-level volcanic eruptions, named after the Italian volcano named Stromboli, where such eruptions consist of ejection of incandescent cinder, lapilli and lava bombs to altitudes of tens to hundreds of meters. They are small to medium in volume, with sporadic violence. (Source). Credit: Wolfgang BeyerGNU Free Documentation license, Version 1.2 or any later version published by the Free Software Foundation.
Semeru eruptions are commonly moderate to moderately large (VEI of 2 to 3). Some of the eruptions produced lahars (a type of mudflow composed of pyroclastic material and water that flows down from a volcano). Semeru’s most recent eruption began in 1967 and has continued to the present. In August of 1994, explosions occurred at 15-20 minute intervals. In February of 1995, pyroclastic avalanches traveled about 0.6 mile (1 km) from the summit.
FEWW team believes there is a strong probability that the Taal Volcano, a Pelean-type active volcano on the island of Luzon, might erupt this month. Taal volcano is designated as one of the 16 Decade Volcanoes by International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior (IAVCEI). Located about 50 km south of the capital, Manila, Taal is surrounded by populated areas.
Taal has erupted violently several times (the last eruption was in 1977). The current death toll caused by its activities stands at about 6,000.
More seismic activities in the region should be expected.
Taal Volcano Seen through Lake Taal (Photo: Jhun Taboga)
A cinder cone in an acidic lake on Taal Volcano (Credit: JG Moore of the US Geological Survey)
Major volcanoes of the Philippines
Pacific Ring of Fire
The Pacific Ring of Fire is an area of frequent earthquakes and volcanic eruptions encircling the basin of the Pacific Ocean. The Ring of Fire has 452 volcanoes and is home to over 75% of the world’s active and dormant volcanoes. Ninety percent of the world’s earthquakes and 80% of the world’s largest earthquakes occur along the Ring of Fire. The Ring of Fire is a direct result and consequence of plate tectonics and the movement and collisions of crustal plates. (Source)
Plate Tectonics
World’s 14 major tectonic plates plus the Scotia plate. Mapped in the second half of the 20th century to explain the observed evidence for large scale motions of the Earth’s lithosphere. The lithosphere is broken up into tectonic plates. The surface of the Earth consists of a further 38 [40] minor plates.
The largest of the major plates are
African Plate, containing Africa – Continental plate
Earthquakes, volcanic activity, mountain-building, and oceanic trench formation occur along plate boundaries. The lateral movement of the plates is typically at speeds of 5 – 10 cm/yr. (Read more …)
Recent Earthquakes [Kurile through Kermadec trenches]
[Time at epicenter]
Magnitude 4.8; Depth of 48.7 km; SOUTHEAST OF THE LOYALTY ISLANDS; Sunday, May 18, 2008 at 10:03:52 PM
Magnitude 5.6; Depth of 35 km; SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA; May 18, 2008 at 07:17:24 PM
Magnitude 4.6; Depth of 74.1km; MINDORO, PHILIPPINES; Sunday, May 18, 2008 at 07:24:17 PM
Magnitude 4.9; Depth of 10 km; SABAH, MALAYSIA; Sunday, May 18, 2008 at 02:26:41 PM
Magnitude 4.9; Depth of 31.3 km; NIAS REGION, INDONESIA; Sunday, May 18, 2008 at 09:59:59 AM
Magnitude 4.4; Depth of 242.4 km;KYUSHU, JAPAN; Sunday, May 18, 2008 at 07:15:06 AM
Magnitude 5.2; Depth of 127.1 km, MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES, Saturday, May 17, 2008 at 10:17:30 PM
Magnitude 5.1; Depth of 151.2 km; SOUTH OF THE KERMADEC ISLANDS; Saturday, May 17, 2008 at 02:23:17 PM
Magnitude 5.3; Depth of 150.4 km; NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA; Saturday, May 17, 2008 at 03:35:14 AM
Magnitude 5.4; Depth of 35 km; SOUTH OF THE KERMADEC ISLANDS; Friday, May 16, 2008 at 11:06:51 PM
Magnitude 5.3; Depth of 41 km; SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION; Friday, May 16, 2008 at 09:19:07 AM
Magnitude 4.9; Depth of 606.3 km; FIJI REGION; Thursday, May 15, 2008 at 10:46:02 AM
Magnitude 5.1; Depth of 35 km; TONGA; Friday, May 16, 2008 at 03:06:15 AM
Magnitude 5.0; Depth of 25.8 km; KURIL ISLANDS; Wednesday, May 14, 2008 at 08:20:43 AM
Magnitude 5.2; Depth of 52.5 km; LUZON, PHILIPPINES; Wednesday, May 14, 2008 at 05:48:32 AM
Magnitude 5.2; Depth of 40.8 km; LUZON, PHILIPPINES; Depth of 40.8 km; Tuesday, May 13, 2008 at 10:14:30 PM
Magnitude 5.4; Depth of 35 km; NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA; Tuesday, May 13, 2008 at 05:29:19 PM
Magnitude 5.0; Depth of 36.7 km; TAIWAN REGION; Tuesday, May 13, 2008 at 06:57:46 AM
Magnitude 4.6; Depth of 509 km; SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS; Monday, May 12, 2008 at 04:34:05 AM
[Source: USGS]
Global earthquake epicentres, 1963–1998 (Image: NASA)
Philippines Other Major Volcanoes: Mayon Volcano
Mayon Volcano as viewed from Lingñon Hill in Daraga, Albay. Mayon, located between the Eurasian and the Philippine Plate, is a convergent plate boundary. It is the most active volcano in the Philippines, having erupted over 47 times in the past 400 years. Last eruption: 2006. (Copyrigh by Tam3rd via Wikimedia)
Canlaon Volcano
Canlaon, a stratovolcano, is located in the north central part of the island of Negros. Last eruption: 2006.
Weather clouds drape the sparsely vegetated summit of Kanlaon volcano (also spelled Canlaon). Kanlaon is the most active of the central Philippines and forms the highest point on the island of Negros. The massive 2435-m-high stratovolcano is dotted with fissure-controlled pyroclastic cones and craters, many of which are filled by lakes. Historical eruptions, recorded since 1866, have typically consisted of phreatic explosions of small-to-moderate size that produce minor ashfalls near the volcano. Photo courtesy of PHIVOLCS. Caption GVP
Ragang volcano
Ragang volcano (above and to the right of the center of image) is located in central Mindanao. Last eruption: 1916. Thanks mainly to the Filipino government and its education authorities, no other image of Ragnag Volcano could be found at the time of writing. NASA Space Shuttle image STS61A-40-71, 1985 (http://eol.jsc.nasa.gov/).
There are 22 active volcanoes in the Philippines: Babuyan Claro, Banahaw, Bulusan, Mount Biliran, Bud Dajo, Cagua, Camiguin de Babuyanes, Didicas, Hibok-Hibok, Iraya, Mount Iriga, Mount Kanlaon, Leonard Kniaseff, Makaturing, Matutum, Mayon, Musuan, Mount Parker (Cotabato), Pinatubo, Ragang, Smith Volcano, Taal.
A U.S. diplomat in Myanmar said the death toll in cyclone Nargis may exceed 100,000. Shari Villarosa, the U.S. charge d’affaires in Yangon, said figure was based on data from an international non-governmental organization.
“The information we are receiving indicates over 100,000 deaths,” she said, “I think most of the damage was caused by these 12-foot storm surges.”
According to the Myanmar state radio, the death toll was 22,980 with 42,119 missing and 1,383 injured by Wednesday night.
Dead bodies from Cyclone Nargis float on a flooded field in Labutta (Source: AFP) Image may be subject to copyright. See FEWW Fair Use Notice.
Nargis is Asia’s second most devastating cyclone in terms of loss of human lives. In 1991 a storm in Bangladesh killed 143,000.
Climate Change + Higher temperatures + Droughts + Floods + Soil erosion + Loss of topsoil + Pollution + Ground-level Ozone = Much Less Food in the Future
Scientists are warning that global warming would present great challenges on the way to produce more food in the future.
“There certainly are going to be lots of challenges in the future. Temperature is one of them, water is another,” said Lisa Ainsworth, a molecular biologist with the United States Department of Agriculture.
“In Northeastern China, low temperatures, a short growing season and lack of water limit production, so rising temperatures in the future may have beneficial impacts there,” said Ainsworth.
“However, in the southern parts of the country, higher temperatures will likely cause yield losses,” she told the reporters.
Higher temperatures coupled with ground-level ozone, which is produced as a result of sunlight interacting with greenhouse gases, added to extremes of floods and droughts is a recipe for disaster.
Ozone is a growing problem in the northern hemisphere and is already costing farmers billion of dollars in crop damage.
Effect of increasing ozone concentration (left to right: about 15, 80 and 150 ppb) on growth of (A) Pima cotton and nutsedge grown in direct competition with one nutsedge per cotton; (B) tomato and nutsedge
grown in direct competition with nutsedge (two-to-one); and (C) yellow nutsedge grown in the absence of competition. (Photo and caption: David A. Grantz & Anil Shrestha, UC Kearney Agricultural Center )
“In the major rice-growing regions, which are India and China, ground-level ozone concentrations even today are very high and certainly exceed the threshold for damage. Ozone is already decreasing yield potential in many areas,” Ainsworth said.
Significant amounts of rice yield are lost annually due to various abiotic stresses (e.g., salinity, droughts). Rice is the staple diet for about half of the world population, and about 90 percent of the world’s rice is produced in Asia.
UN experts believe that in low-latitude regions, slightest temperature rises of about 1ºC could affect crop yields.
The atmospheric CO2 levels have now reached about 388 parts per million from about 280 ppm prior to the Industrial Revolution.
“There is still a lot of uncertainty in the climate modeling when it comes to the regional level,” said Reiner Wassmann coordinator of the Rice and Climate Change Consortium at IRRI. “But it was clear temperatures would rise.”
A train travels along the flooded Darbhanga-Sitamadhi railway line in Bihar in this August 2, 2007 file photo. Massive monsoon floods in eastern India damaged vast areas of corn and affected the rice crop, government officials and farm experts said on Tuesday, adding that losses are being assessed. REUTERS/Krishna Murari Kishan (image may be subject to copyright!) See FEWW Fair Use notice.
“The other mega trend we see is that we will have more climate extremes. In some places there might be more drought, in others it may be submergence, from floods, in some places it might be both,” said Wassmann.
Lake Hartwell, February 2008, western South Carolina. Photo courtesy South Carolina Department of Natural Resources staff. (Source UNL)
“That is really a new challenge for development of cropping systems and I don’t want to limit it to only plant breeding. We have to be clear that this is no silver bullet and that if we speed-up plant breeding everything will be fine. Certainly not.
“We also have to improve crop management and water saving techniques have come into the picture to cope with drought,” he said. (Source)
High ozone levels can damage leaves on trees and crops (such as corn, wheat, and soybeans), reducing growth rates and crop yields. In 1995, ground-level ozone caused $2.7 billion in crop damage nationwide, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Due to its reactive nature, ozone also can prematurely degrade and wear out rubber, paints and other materials. (Source)
Philippines population climbs as food problems worsen
Philippines Facts
Population
93,411,554 (FEWW August 2008 est.)
92,681,453 (CIA World Factbook July 2008 est.)
The population grew at a rate of 2.34 percent annually between 1990 and 2000, and by than 2.04 percent since 2000.
The population growth rate for 2008 could be as high 3.4% (see FEWW calculations)
The population reached 88.57 million in August 2007 (census), up from 76.5 million in 2000.
The average population growth rate in Asia is 1.1 percent (UNPF).
Politics andReligion and Politics
Philippines is the biggest Catholic nation in Asia.
In Manila, the capital, the conversion of agricultural land for property development has been halted to meet the food needs of the nation.
The church forbids artificial birth control.
President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo came to power in 2001 with the backing of the Church.
The Economy
About 36 percent of the population are poor and the numbers of poor is growing faster than the population.
Recent government data revealed that 28 million people subsisted on less than $1 per day in 2006 (up 16 percent from 2003). Report
Estimated per capita GDP: $3,300 (Rank: 159th) 2007
Unemployment rate for 2006: 7.9 percent
Labor in agriculture: 36 percent (2003 estimate)
Population below poverty line
36% (2008 est.)
Household income or consumption by percentage share:
lowest 10%: 2.4%
highest 10%: 31.2% (2006):
Armed soldiers deployed as security escorts during rice distribution, watch a large crowd of residents waiting to buy cheap priced government rice outside the National Food Authority warehouse in Manila on April 11, 2008. A senior UN official visiting Manila said April 11 that food riots from soaring food prices have hit 33 countries and warned that the Philippines, one of the world’s largest rice importers, could be next if the government mishandled the issue. Meanwhile the International Rice Research Institute warned that rice prices are likely to keep rising for some time as production fails to keep up with soaring demand.
4:25 a.m. ET, 4/11/08. Photo Credit: ROMEO GACAD / AFP/Getty Images – Image may be copyrighted. See FEWW Fair Use Notice. (Caption: MSNBC)
[Note: The Philippine archipelago is made up of 7,107 islands; favorably located in relation to many of Southeast Asia’s main water bodies: the South China Sea, Philippine Sea, Sulu Sea, Celebes Sea, and Luzon Strait]
Environmental issues
Uncontrolled deforestation especially in watershed areas; soil erosion; air and water pollution in major urban centers; coral reef degradation; increasing pollution of coastal mangrove swamps that are important fish breeding grounds. (Source: CIA- The World Factbook)
Comments by EU External Relations
The Philippines is ranked as a lower Middle Income Country, but is beset by extreme inequality of wealth distribution. While the Philippines is not a poor country, it is nevertheless a country with a lot of poor people: about [36] % of its total population, some [33] million people, live below the National Poverty Line. The country has not achieved sufficient economic progress over the past decades to substantially reduce poverty, due mainly to high population growth, lack of employment creation, rampant corruption, feudal politics and insurgencies, one communist-inspired, the other triggered by Islamic separatism. Combined with the lack of a national policy to slow its 2.3% annual population growth, its ability to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) is seriously compromised. The Philippines lags economically behind the rest of the region and has recently been facing a severe fiscal crisis, with the highest deficit in the region of 5 % of GDP. At the same time it needs to service a national government debt of 78% of GDP The Philippines is witnessing an erosion of confidence in elected government and political institutions, coupled with a feeling of impotence to achieve substantial change towards a more equitable distribution of wealth. Although some measures to redress the fiscal balance have been taken, more economic reforms are necessary to sustain the momentum.
The main challenges for the Philippines are to:
reduce poverty through stronger job creation and better access to services, especially social services, as well as to employment and income earning opportunities for the poor;
achieve a more equitable distribution of wealth through economic, social and political and reforms.
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