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Posts Tagged ‘Atlantic hurricane season’

JOAQUIN Prompts States of Emergency Declarations in 5 States

Posted by feww on October 2, 2015

States of Emergency declared in SC, NC, VA, MD and NJ ahead of hurricane JOAQUIN

JOAQUIN, strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane, pounded the central Bahamas with 215 kilometer per hour winds earlier today.

The governors of South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland and New Jersey have declared states of emergency, as of posting, mobilizing the National Guard troops to deal with potential disasters.

The storm, 3rd hurricane of the 2015 Atlantic season, was classified as an “extremely dangerous,” by the National Hurricane Center:

8:00 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 –
Location: 23.4°N 74.8°W
Moving: NW at 5 km/hr
Min pressure: 937 mb
Max sustained winds: 215 km/hr (115 knot)

Heavy rain, flooding expected across parts of mid-Atlantic regardless of JOAQUIN forecast track —NHC

The forecast models continue to indicate a track for Hurricane Joaquin offshore of the United States East Coast from the Carolinas to the mid-Atlantic, and the threat of direct impacts from Joaquin in those areas is decreasing. Even if Joaquin remains offshore, strong onshore winds associated with a frontal system will create minor to moderate coastal flooding along parts of the East Coast.

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INGRID Forces Thousands to Seek Emergency Shelter

Posted by feww on September 15, 2013

Hurricane INGRID strengthens pounding Mexico’s Gulf coast

Thousands of people in Veracruz state on Mexico’s Gulf coast have sought emergency shelters as Hurricane INGRID strengthened Saturday night pounding central and eastern Mexico with heavy rain.

INGRID, the 2nd hurricane and the 9th storm of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season was moving north at about 10km/h late on Saturday, said the NHC.

INGRID is expected to make landfall north of Tampico, Mexico on Monday.

INGRID and MANUEL -bd
INGRID and MANUEL – Longwave Infrared Image – Dvorak Enhancement-20130915/ 034500UTC. Source: CIMSS

Meantime, Tropical Storm MANUEL on Mexico’s Pacific coast was also strengthening on Saturday, battering coastal towns, including Acapulco, with torrential rain.

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Active or Extremely Active 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA

Posted by feww on May 24, 2013

2013 Atlantic hurricane season could see up to 6 major hurricanes: NOAA CPC

The six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, could see up to 20 named storms, of which 7 to 11 could become hurricanes, including as many as 6 major hurricanes, says NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC).

NOAA’s 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook indicates that an above-normal season is most likely, with the possibility that the season could be very active. The outlook calls for a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season.

Summary of CPC Prediction for 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season:

  • 70% chance of an above-normal season
  • 13-20 Named Storms (winds of 39 mph or higher)
  • 7-11 Hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher)
  • 3-6 Major Hurricanes ( Categories 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)
  • Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 120%-205%

Note: The official NHC 1981-2010 seasonal averages 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

2013 hurricane activity forecast-noaa

Climate factors that control Atlantic hurricane activity

According to NOAA/CPC, three climate factors strongly control Atlantic hurricane activity, which are expected to join forces to produce an active or extremely active 2013 hurricane season.

  • The ongoing set of atmospheric conditions that have been producing increased Atlantic hurricane activity, which includes a strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the ongoing era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995
  • Expected continuation of above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across MDR, which includes the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea
  • ENSO-neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean (i.e., no El Niño or La Niña); meaning El Niño is not expected to develop and suppress the hurricane season

NOAA’s 2013 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook

  • 55% chance of a below-normal season
  • 35% chance of a near-normal season
  • 10% chance of an above normal season

[The eastern Pacific hurricane region covers the eastern North Pacific Ocean east of 14:0oW and north of the equator.]

The outlook is based on the analysis and prediction of three climate signals:

  • The ongoing climate conditions that have been associated with reduced eastern Pacific hurricane activity since 1995
  • Expected ENSO-neutral conditions, meaning El Niño is not expected to develop and strengthen the seasonal activity,
  • Expected near-average or below-average sea-surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

NOAA estimates  a 70% chance of occurrence for each of the following ranges of activity in the 2013 season:

  • 11-16 named storms,
  • 5-8 hurricanes,
  • 1-4 major hurricanes,
  • An ACE range 60%-105% of the median.

Related Links

FIRE-EARTH Forecast

FIRE-EARTH will NOT release details of its 2013 Hurricane Season forecast as a continued protest to the ongoing censorship, hacking and theft of the intellectual property posted on this blog.

Posted in Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2013, Significant Event Imagery, significant events | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

ARLENE: Tardy, Disorganized and Very Wet

Posted by feww on June 30, 2011

ARLENE, the first storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, bringing  torrential rains to central Mexico

Tropical Storm ARLENE is expected to make landfall near Tuxpan, central Mexico early Thursday (local time)

ARLENE is currently located about 100km east of the town of Tuxpan in the Mexican state of Veracruz moving west (275 degrees, at a forward speed of about 10 km/hr); it has a maximum sustained winds of about 113 km/hr (61 kts),  just short of being a category 1 hurricane (119 km/hr) on the FEWW Hurricane Scale, with wind gusts of up to 140 km/hr. ARLENE could probably intensify to a hurricane force before landfall, NHC said.


Tropical Storm ARLENE with projected track – IR/WV Diff Satellite Image (4-km) resolution. Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.

TS ARLENE Summary of Details (as of posting)

  • Location: ~ 100km east of the town of Tuxpan, Veracru, Meixco
  • Position: ~ 21N, 94W
  • Movement and speed: moving west (275 degrees,)  at a forward speed of about 10 km/hr
  • Maximum sustained winds: 113 km/hr (61 kt)
  • Wind gusts:  up to 140 km/hr (75 kt)
  • Remarks: ARLENE could probably intensify to a hurricane force before landfall (NHC).

Related Links

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Atlantic Storms: Invest Area 94L

Posted by feww on June 4, 2011

Calm Before the 2011 Storms?

94L is expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash flooding and mudslides to parts of Jamaica, Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic) and southeastern Cuba, and is forecast to remain quasi-stationary over the west-central Caribbean Sea through the weekend.


Invest Area 94L. VIS/IR Satellite image. Source: CIMSS. Click images to enlarge.


Invest Area 94L. IR Satellite image (BD Enhancement, 2km res.)  Source: CIMSS.

 

Related Links

2011 Disasters

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Vanishing Fred & Atlantic Hurricane Season 2009

Posted by feww on September 11, 2009

Wondering what happened to the Atlantic Hurricane Season?

As [tiny] Fred begins to fizzles out of its hurricane status in the Atlantic ocean about 1,190 km (740 miles) west of Cape Verde Islands, mot everyone must be thinking whatever happened to the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season.

jsl-l - Fred
Hurricane Fred. GOES Floater Imagery – Still Image – See inset for date and time. Click image to enlarge and update.

Summary of Hurricane Fred Status: Fred is weakening further as it slows down more.
AT 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 10, Fred was located at 17.4°N 35.1°W, at max sustained wind speeds of about  140 km/h (85 mph) moving north at a forward speed of 5 km/h
(3 mph) with a min pressure of 735.1 mmHg (80 mb), NHC/NOAA said, expecting it to downgrade to a tropical storm within the next 24 hrs.

For one thing, it’s not over yet, at least not until the “fat lady” strikes. The peak months are August to October.

For another, the strengthening El Niño episode seems to be disrupting storm formation in the Main Hurricane Development Region, the Atlantic basin, AND forcing the storms away from land.

In fact, NOAA’s updated 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook predicts a 90% chance of a near-normal or below normal hurricane season.

NOAA recounts two competing climate factors.

1. The persisting “multi-decadal signal” that has been “associated with elevated levels of Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995, along with warmer than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea.”

2. The El Niño episode, which is  “producing increased wind shear in the Main Hurricane Development Region.”

Based on these mix of climatic factors, NOAA updated prediction for the 2009 hurricane season is

  • 50% chance of a near-normal season
  • 40% chance of a below normal season
  • Only an unlikely 10% chance of an above-normal season

The outlook indicates a 70% probability for each of the following seasonal ranges: 7-11 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, 1-2 major hurricanes, and an ACE range of 60%-110% of the median. Most of this activity is expected during the upcoming peak months (August-October) of the hurricane season.

For an in-depth analysis by NOAA see: 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Update

Related Links:

Posted in Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, Caribbean Sea, El Niño, ENSO, multi-decadal signal, sea surface temperatures, tropical North Atlantic Ocean | Tagged: , , , , | 4 Comments »

Another Ocean Record Broken

Posted by feww on August 19, 2009

Congratulations! We’ve broken another ocean record!

Warmest Global Ocean Surface Temperatures on Record for July: NOAA

Our planet experienced the  warmest ocean surface temperature on record for July, exceeding the previous record established in 1998, NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C., reported.

As for the combined average global land and ocean surface temperature records, July 2009 ranked fifth-warmest since 1880 when world-wide records began,  NOAA said.


Atlantic Ocean Daily Sea Surface Temps – POES Composite. Source: NOAA


East Pacific Ocean Daily Sea Surface Temps – POES Composite. Source: NOAA

The following stats were provided by NOAA:

Global Climate Statistics

  • The combined global land and ocean surface temperature for July 2009 was the fifth warmest on record, at 1.03 degrees F (0.57 degree C) above the 20th century average of 60.4 degrees F (15.8 degrees C).
  • The global ocean surface temperature for July 2009 was the warmest on record, 1.06 degrees F (0.59 degree C) above the 20th century average of 61.5 degrees F (16.4 degrees C). This broke the previous July record set in 1998. The July ocean surface temperature departure of 1.06 degrees F from the long-term average equals last month’s value, which was also a record.
  • The global land surface temperature for July 2009 was 0.92 degree F (0.51 degree C) above the 20th century average of 57.8 degrees F (14.3 degree C), and tied with 2003 as the ninth-warmest July on record.

Notable Developments and Events

  • El Niño persisted across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during July 2009. Related sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies increased for the sixth consecutive month.
  • Large portions of many continents had substantially warmer-than-average temperatures during July 2009. The greatest departures from the long-term average were evident in Europe, northern Africa, and much of western North America. Broadly, across these regions, temperatures were about 4-7 degrees F (2-4 degrees C) above average.
  • Cooler-than-average conditions prevailed across southern South America, central Canada, the eastern United States, and parts of western and eastern Asia. The most notably cool conditions occurred across the eastern U.S., central Canada, and southern South America where region-wide temperatures were nearly 4-7 degrees F (2-4 degrees C) below average.
  • Arctic sea ice covered an average of 3.4 million square miles during July. This is 12.7 percent below the 1979-2000 average extent and the third lowest July sea ice extent on record, behind 2007 and 2006. Antarctic sea ice extent in July was 1.5 percent above the 1979-2000 average. July Arctic sea ice extent has decreased by 6.1 percent per decade since 1979, while July Antarctic sea ice extent has increased by 0.8 percent per decade over the same period.

Related Links:

Posted in dying oceans, oceans warming, POES, Record Ocean Surface Temps, Reynolds SST Analysis, Sea Surface Temp | Tagged: , , , , | 2 Comments »

Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE

Posted by feww on August 17, 2009

The Third Tropical Storm in Just Over a Day forms Off the Coast of Florida

After a slow start to the six-month Atlantic hurricane season,  CLAUDETTE, the third Atlantic tropical storm of the year formed just over a day after TS Ana and Bill, on Sunday.

TS CLAUDETTE, according to the US National Hurricane Center Intermediate Advisory 4A, as of 8:00 PM EDT was located at  29.7N 85.9W with Max.  sustained winds of 80km/h (50 MPH) moving northwest (310 degrees) at a cruising  speed of about 19km/h  (12 MPH) with a minimum central pressure of 1008MB.

TS force winds radiate outward up to about 110km from the center. Claudette is expected to dump up to 15cm of rain across Florida Panhandle, the big Bend region of Florida, Central and S. Alabama, and extreme SW Georgia, the NHC advisory said, with the storm tide rising to a maximum of 150cm.

How Ana and Bill are doing

Tropical Storm Ana collapsed into a tropical depression on Sunday, and could still be downgraded further and disappear altogether very soon

Bill is the guy to watch for. Some forecasts expect Bill to grow into a  Category 3 hurricane [cat 3  and stronger hurricanes are designated as a major categories,] with winds of more than 180 km/h in the next 3 to 4 days.

The Gulf of Mexico oil and gas operations are unaffected for now, however, they could be pummeled later in the season.

Meanwhile, hurricane Guillermo is about to cross into central Pacific.

claudette rb
Claudette satellite image – rainbow enhancement curve – still frame as dated. To enlarge and update click on the image.

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone

203214W5_NL_sm
To enlarge and update click on the image.

fws prob
To enlarge and update click on the image.

Related Links:

Posted in 2009 named storms, Florida deluge, gulf of mexico, hurricanes 2009, tropical storms 2009 | Tagged: , , , , , | 2 Comments »

CSU Lowers Hurricane Forecast

Posted by feww on June 3, 2009

Colorado State University Lowers 2009 Hurricane Forecast for Atlantic basin to “Slightly Below Average Season”

The forecasters  now anticipates 11 named storms forming during the official Atlantic basin hurricane season between June 1 and November 30.


William Gray and Phil Klotzbach. The Colorado State University Tropical Storm Duo!

CSU forecasts use available data on global oceanic and atmospheric conditions [El Nino, sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures … ] recorded prior to the past seasons and compare the results to forecast future trends.

“The probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 48 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent,” said lead forecaster Phil Klotzbach.

“Currently observed climate factors are similar to conditions that occurred during 1959, 1960, 1965, 2001 and 2002 seasons. The average of these five seasons had slightly below-average activity, and Klotzbach and Gray predict the 2009 season will have activity in line with the average of these five years.” CSU forecasters reported.

According to CSU forecast tropical cyclone activity in 2009 will be 90 percent of the average season. In 2008 tropical cyclone activity reached about 160 percent of the average.

CSU Hurricane Forecasters said they will issue a final seasonal update on Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Here’s summary of their revised forecast released June 2, 2009

EXTENDED RANGE ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2009

Tropical Cyclone Parameters Extended Range

  • Named Storms:  (9.6)* 11
  • Named Storm Days: (49.1) 50
  • Hurricanes:  (5.9) 5
  • Hurricane Days (24.5) 20
  • Intense Hurricanes: (2.3) 2
  • Intense Hurricane Days:  (5.0) 4
  • Accumulated Cyclone Energy:  (96) 85
  • Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (100%) 90

{Note: Numbers in ( ) represent average year data based on 1950-2000 records.

On the face of it, their revised forecast appears to be  sensible; however, it excludes the possibility that the traditional hurricane season might be shifting.

Related Links:

CSU forecasters’ Landfall Probability tables are available at  http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane

Posted in Accumulated Cyclone Energy, El Niño, Intense Hurricanes, Net Tropical Cyclone activity, sea surface temperatures | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Gustav Now a Category Four Hurricane, as Forecast

Posted by feww on August 30, 2008

As forecast by FEWW model, Gustav has now strengthened to an extremely dangerous category four hurricane

The National Hurricane Center in Miami confirmed a few minutes ago that Gustav now has maximum winds approaching 230 km/hr which makes him an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. The following excerpt is from their advisory update:

Hurricane Gustav Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl   Al072008
13:20 EDT Sat Aug 30 2008

… Gustav has continued to strengthen and now has maximum winds near 230 km/hr (145 mph) with higher gusts.  This makes Gustav an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.  A special advisory will be issued at about 14:00 EDT to modify the initial and forecast intensities. The special public advisory will take the place of the intermediate public advisory previously scheduled for that time. —Forecaster Knabb


Hurricane Gustav
– GOES Imagery – Floater (updated image) – IR Aviation color enhancement – Credit: NOAA Satellite Information Service/SSD


Hurricane Gustav
– GOES Imagery – (still image saved for comparison Aug 30, 2008 22:15 UTC) – IR Aviation color enhancement – Credit: NOAA Satellite Information Service/SSD

Gustav’s current characteristics including his rapid ability to strengthen, his temperament and projected path, suggest that he could cause substantial damage to structures, especially to the 3,900 or so offshore oil and gas facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.

Gustav could bring up to 10 meter storm surge along the northern Gulf Coast. According to the Census Bureau estimate, as many as 12 million U.S. residents may experience Gustav’s impact.

The storm has already left a trail of destruction and some 90 people dead in its wake as it swept across the Caribbeans over the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica. The storm’s human cost in Cayman Islands and Cuba may exceed the standing death toll.

What about Hannah?


TS Hannah (C) Chasing Hurricane Gustv (L) – GOES Caribbean Imagery – (Still Image) – August 30, 2008 Credit: NOAA Satellite Information Service/SSD

According to NHC TS Hannah advisory No. 11, at 21:00UTC the center of tropical storm Hanna was located near latitude 22.4 north, longitude 67.2 west or about 415 km east-northeast of Grand Turk Island. The center of Hanna is forecast to move near or just northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands late Sunday or Monday.

Hannah has maximum sustained winds of near 85 km/hr, with higher gusts.  Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hrs. Minimum central pressure:1000mb.

Hannah seems to have the potential to “pack a big punch!”

Posted in Climate Change, energy, environment, Florida, food, Global Warming, Gustav trajectory, health, hurricane Katrina, New Orleans, Offshore oil facilities, politics, Texas, Tourism, Travel | Tagged: , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

TSs Hannah and Gustav

Posted by feww on August 29, 2008

Latest: Tropical Storm Front Update 9-3

Tropical Storm [‘Big’] Hannah Chases Gustav

Tropical Storm Hanna regional imagery, 2008.08.29 at 08:45UTC.
Centerpoint Latitude: 21:17:12N Longitude: 62:25:56W.


Data Elements:
Tropical Storm Hanna is located north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. This system is moving toward the northwest near 22km/hr. Maximum sustained winds are near 85km/hr.
Observation Device: GOES-12  4-km infrared imagery.
Visualization Date: August 29, 2008 08:05:16 UTC
Credit NOAA – Environmental Visualization Service

noaa logo Gustav and Hannah – GOES Puerto Rico SECTOR IR Image – Updated Image

:
Puerto Rico Sector (IR Ch 4, Mercator Projection) – Credit: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Tropical storm Hanna advisory number 5

  • Hanna is poorly organized at this time.
  • At 09:00 UTC the center of tropical storm Hanna was located near latitude 21.7 North, …longitude 62.3 West or about 400 km north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.
  • Hanna is moving toward the northwest near 22 km/hr.   A motion between west-northwest and northwest away from the Leeward Islands is expected during the next  24 hrs.
  • Maximum sustained winds are near 85 km/hr with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast today but Hanna could become a hurricane in a couple of days.
  • Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 km from the center.
  • Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

Rain bands associated with Hanna could produce rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across portions of the Leeward Island. – Forecaster Avila

Tropical Storm Hanna regional imagery, 2008.08.28 at 16:15UTC.
Centerpoint Latitude: 19:10:50N Longitude: 58:37:25W.


Data Elements:
Hanna has become the eighth tropical storm of the 2008 season.
Observation Device: GOES-12 1 km visible imagery.
Credit NOAA – Environmental Visualization Service

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Fay May Strengthen to Hurricane Force

Posted by feww on August 18, 2008

LATEST UPDATE: Fay Heads North Toward SW Florida Coast

Tropical Storm Fay Intermediate Advisory No. 9a
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl AL062008
800 pm EDT Sun Aug 17, 2008

Highlights:

  • Fay is moving slower. She has not strengthened yet.
  • A hurricane watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from south of Ocean Reef to Key West including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay and along the Florida mainland from Card Sound Bridge westward to Tarpon Springs.
  • A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 36 hours.
  • A hurricane watch remains in effect for Cuba from the provinces of La Habana and Ciudad de la Habana eastward to Sancti Spiritus.
  • A tropical storm warning is in effect for the provinces of Cuba from Camaguey westward.
  • A TS warning remains in effect for Cayman Brac and Little Cayman.
  • A TS warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys From Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay.
  • A TS warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

TS Fay Moving Over Cuba


Western Atlantic Infrared Image – Realtime Satellite Images From GOES – NOAA

  • A TS watch remains in effect for the southeast coast of Florida from Ocean Reef northward to Jupiter inlet and for lake Okeechobee. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area generally within 36 hours.
  • A TS watch remains in effect for Grand Cayman Island.
  • Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula the northwestern Bahamas and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Fay.
  • For storm information specific to your area including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
  • At 8:00 pm EDT 00:00 UTC the center of TS Fay was located near latitude 21.0 North, Longitude 80.3 west or about 200 miles (330 km) southeast of Havana Cuba and about 265 miles (430km) south-southeast of Key West, Florida.
  • Fay has been moving slowly and somewhat erratically toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/hr). A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight with a turn toward the north expected Monday or Monday night. On the forecast track, Fay is expected cross Western Cuba overnight tonight or Monday morning and move near the Florida Keys Monday or Monday night.

Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities.

  • Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/hr) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Fay could be approaching hurricane strength when it reaches western Cuba tonight or early Monday and when it approaches the Florida Keys Monday.
  • Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.
  • The minimum central pressure estimated is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
  • Storm tides of 2 to 4 feet above normal are possible along the south coast of Cuba in the tropical storm warning area in areas of onshore winds. Tides of 2 to 4 ft above normal are possible in the Florida Keys in the warning area.
  • Isolated tornadoes are possible late tonight and Monday over the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula.
  • Fay is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over much of Cuba with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible over Grand Cayman and over the central Bahamas. Heavy rain may
  • Begin to affect the Florida Keys and south Florida tonight and into Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible for the Florida Keys and south Florida.
  • Repeating the 8:00 pm EDT position: 21.0 N, 80.3 W.
  • Movement toward west-northwest near 10 mph.
  • Maximum sustained winds 50 mph. Minimum central pressure 1001 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11:00 pm EDT. — Forecaster Pasch/Roberts

Related Links:

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Tropical Storm Fay Forms

Posted by feww on August 15, 2008

Sixth Atlantic Storm of the Season

A low pressure area over the Mona Passage became a tropical storm as it moved into the Eastern Dominican Republic, NOAA reported.

Fay is expected to track westward in the direction of Florida and the Gulf of Mexico.

[Aug 17, 2008 Update: TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NO. 7A]


Tropical Storm Fay – Tropical Storm Floater Imagery (updated periodically) – Aviation color enhancement – NOAA

At 5 pm AST (21:00 UTC) the government of the Dominican Republic issued a tropical storm warning for the Dominican Republic for The entire north coast of the Dominican Republic and for the south coast east of San Pedro de Macoris. A tropical storm warning is Also in effect for the north coast of Haiti from Gonaives
Northward.

At 5 pm AST (21:00 UTC) The government of Cuba issued a tropical storm warning for the provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago De Cuba and Granma, as well as for the provinces of Holguin and Las Tunas.

A Tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area generally within 36 hours.

At 500 pm AST the center of tropical storm Fay was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 69.4 West or about 35 miles (55 km) east of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic and about 395 miles (635 km) east-southeast of Guantanamo Cuba.

Fay is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/hr). A general motion toward the west-northwest is expected during the next day. On the forecast track the center of Fay will cross Hispaniola tonight and Saturday and pass near or over eastern Cuba Saturday night and Sunday.

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone (NHC/NOAA)

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/hr) with higher gusts, mainly over water to the north and east of the center. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles (140 km) from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 MB (29.77 inches).

Tides of 1 to 2 feet above normal can be expected in the warning area in areas of onshore flow.

Fay is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 Inches over Hispaniola and eastern Cuba with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. – Forecaster Beven [Tropical Storm FAY Public Advisory #1]

Posted in Climate Change, energy, environment, food, Global Warming, health, Tourism, Travel | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

What’s New in the Atlantic TS Front?

Posted by feww on August 13, 2008

THE NORTH ATLANTIC CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO

Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. NHC. NOAA
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 300
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES…AND THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS BEEN
CANCELED.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO HAS DECREASED.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH.

2. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
ABOUT 700 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  —   FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

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Tropical Storm Cristobal Treks Northeast

Posted by feww on July 20, 2008

Cristobal, the first of the season’s tropical storms to menace the southeastern U.S.


Cristobal – GOES – Water Vapor Image – July 20, 08:45 UTC

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

…CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER…INCLUDING
PAMLICO SOUND.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT…0000Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 130
MILES…210 KM…EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 185
MILES…300 KM…SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH…10 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK…THE
CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL AND VERY
CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES…140 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB…29.68 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST…WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION…33.2 N…77.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Related Links:

More images are available at Oceanview and Weather.

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Revved-up Bertha Becomes A Hurricane Again!

Posted by feww on July 19, 2008

Will she hold her strength this time despite the official forecast?


Hurricane Bertha: Satellite image July 19, 2008 00:15UTC – NOAA

Related Links:

HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 63
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM AST FRI JUL 18 2008

…BERTHA BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN…

AT 500 PM AST…2100Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 37.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 50.6 WEST OR ABOUT 640 MILES…
1035 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH…35 KM/HR…AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES…75 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES…280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB…29.21 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION…37.6 N…50.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…989 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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Bertha Revving UP!

Posted by feww on July 15, 2008

BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS…


A satellite Image of Bertha before arriving in Bermuda. NOAA, Jul 10, 2008

  • AT 800 PM AST [Atlantic Standard Time]…0000Z [GMT]…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES…135 KM…NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
  • LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA…AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
  • DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
  • BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.

Excerpts from TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 47A
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM AST MON JUL 14 2008

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Hurricane Bertha Slows Down

Posted by feww on July 12, 2008

See Latest Update [July 14, 2008] Bertha Revving UP!

Bertha slows down, but her large eye looks menacing


A satellite image of Bertha as she appeared on July 12, 2008 at 00:15UTC – NOAA


Bertha [Latest image – Updated] Source: NOAA

HURRICANE BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
800 PM AST FRI JUL 11 2008

…CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BERTHA STILL SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND
CRAWLING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

AT 800 PM AST…0000Z…THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS
CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 62.3 WEST OR ABOUT
250 MILES…400 KM…SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH…7 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY…
FOLLOWED BY A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH OR
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK…THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH…150 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES…220 KM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BERTHA COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH
TO BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO BRING WINDS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE TO THAT ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA IS
976 MB…28.82 INCHES.

THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN BERMUDA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION…29.3 N…62.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…976 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

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Images of the Day: Hurricane Bertha

Posted by feww on July 8, 2008

Watch out! Big Bertha might be heading your way!


Image: NOAA


Image: NOAA [Updated]

For hurricane Bertha public advisory goto: Bertha
http://www.noaawatch.gov/2008/bertha.php

See also: Bertha – Hurricane Tracking Sector (Water Vapor Channel)

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