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‘The State of Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere Based on Global Observations through 2016’
Excerpts from Report’s Executive Summary:
Analysis of observations from the WMO GAW Program shows that globally averaged surface mole fractions calculated for CO2 , methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) reached new highs in 2016, with
CO2 at 403.3 ± 0.1 pp [or 145% pre-industrial – before 1750 – levels.]
CH4 at 1 853 ± 2 ppb [257%]
N2O at 328.9 ± 0.1 ppb [122%]
The record increase of 3.3 ppm in CO2 from 2015 to 2016 was larger than the previous record increase, observed from 2012 to 2013, and the average growth rate over the last decade. The increase of CH4 from 2015 to 2016 was slightly smaller than that observed from 2014 to 2015, but larger than the average over the last decade. The increase of N2O from 2015 to 2016 was also slightly smaller than that observed from 2014 to 2015 and the average growth rate over the past 10 years. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) shows that from 1990 to 2016, radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) increased by 40%, with CO2 accounting for about 80% of this increase. The WMO GAW Program (http://www.wmo.int/gaw)
Up-to-date weekly average CO2at Mauna Loa, Hawaii
Week beginning on October 22, 2017: 404.01 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 401.83 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 381.44 ppm
Last updated: October 30, 2017
Full CO2 record at Mauna Loa
Analysis and additional information available via FIRE-EARTH PULSARS.
“Every breath you take and every move you make; every bond you break, every step you take, I’ll be watching you”
CO2 levels reach new global monthly record of 400ppm
Yet another greenhouse gas benchmark has been reached globally.
Global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations have reached a new monthly record of 400 parts per million (ppm), the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced.
“We first reported 400 ppm when all of our Arctic sites reached that value in the spring of 2012. In 2013 the record at NOAA’s Mauna Loa Observatory first crossed the 400 ppm threshold. Reaching 400 parts per million as a global average is a significant milestone,” said the lead scientist of NOAA’s Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network.
CO2 has risen about 120 parts per million since preindustrial times, with about 50 percent of the increase occurring since 1980.
On April 3, FIRE-EARTH forecast that the weekly average atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa could hit 400ppm by May 2013.
Last 5 days of preliminary daily average CO2
May 06 – 404.34
May 05 – 404.13
May 04 – Unavailable
May 03 – 403.63
May 02 – 403.59
Up-to-date weekly average CO2 at Mauna Loa
Week beginning on April 26, 2015: 403.78 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 401.73 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 382.52 ppm
Last updated: May 7, 2015
Recent Monthly Average Mauna Loa CO2
April 2015: 403.26 ppm
April 2014: 401.29 ppm
Last updated: May 5, 2015
Recent Global CO2
March 2015: 400.83 ppm
March 2014: 398.10 ppm
Last updated: May 5, 2015
Up-to-date weekly average CO2 at Mauna Loa [Last updated: April 17, 2014]
Week beginning on April 6, 2014: 401.25 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 397.67 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 380.52 ppm
Recent Global CO2 [Last updated: April 8, 2014] February 2014: 398.06 ppm
February 2013: 395.61 ppm
Recent Monthly Average Mauna Loa CO2
March 2014: 399.65 ppm
March 2013: 397.31 ppm
Last 5 days of preliminary daily average CO2
April 16 – 401.24
April 15 – 402.02
April 14 – 402.16
April 13 – 401.71
April 12 – 401.09
The graph shows recent monthly mean carbon dioxide measured at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii. The last four complete years of the Mauna Loa CO2 record plus the current year are shown. Data are reported as a dry air mole fraction defined as the number of molecules of carbon dioxide divided by the number of all molecules in air, including CO2 itself, after water vapor has been removed. The mole fraction is expressed as parts per million (ppm). Example: 0.000400 is expressed as 400 ppm.
In the above figure, the dashed red line with diamond symbols represents the monthly mean values, centered on the middle of each month. The black line with the square symbols represents the same, after correction for the average seasonal cycle. The latter is determined as a moving average of SEVEN adjacent seasonal cycles centered on the month to be corrected, except for the first and last THREE and one-half years of the record, where the seasonal cycle has been averaged over the first and last SEVEN years, respectively.
The last year of data are still preliminary, pending recalibration of reference gases and other quality control checks. The Mauna Loa data are being obtained at an altitude of 3400 m in the northern subtropics, and may not be the same as theglobally averaged CO2 concentration at the surface. Source: ESRL/NOAA
Just when you thought it couldn’t possibly get much …
FIRE-EARTH Models show unprecedented surges in atmospheric CO2 concentrations starting 2014. The massive increases could be as much as 10 – 15 times any rises ever recorded.
To minimize abuse of this forecast by the usual culprits and dozens of newcomers, FIRE-EARTH won’t release further details at this time.
The graph shows recent monthly mean carbon dioxide globally averaged over marine surface sites. The Global Monitoring Division of NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory has measured carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases for several decades at a globally distributed network of air sampling sites [Conway, 1994]. A global average is constructed by first fitting a smoothed curve as a function of time to each site, and then the smoothed value for each site is plotted as a function of latitude for 48 equal time steps per year. A global average is calculated from the latitude plot at each time step [Masarie, 1995]. Go here for more details on how global means are calculated. Click for a comparison with recent trends in carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, which has the longest continuous record of direct atmospheric CO2 measurements. Image and caption: ESRL/NOAA
Index of Human Impact on Nature (HIoN)
Diagram shows the exponential growth of Human Impact on Nature (HION) between 1960 and July 2013. Source: FIRE-EARTH Real-Time Earth Models. Copyright: FIRE-EARTH Blog Authors.
Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide:
Average CO2 at Mauna Loa Continues Rising
Last 5 days of preliminary daily average CO2
May 28 – 400.27
May 27 – 400.29
May 26 – 400.45
May 25 – 399.97
May 24 – 399.84
Weekly average CO2 at Mauna Loa
Week beginning on May 19, 2013: 399.91 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 396.30 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 379.36 ppm
Atmospheric increase of CO2 over 280 ppm in weekly averages of CO2 observed at Mauna Loa. Source: NOAA/ESRL
-oOo-
TS BARBARA intensifying on its way to southern coast of Mexico
BARBARA is forecast to reach hurricane strength before slamming Mexico’s southern coast on Wednesday, NHC said.
The storm, currently moving northeast at about 7MPH, is forecast to cross Isthmus of Tehuantepec, Mexico’s narrowest point.
The center has issued a hurricane warning from Oaxaca’s Puerto Angel to Barra de Tonala, and a tropical storm warming from Barra de Tonala to Boca de Pijijiapan in Chiapas state.
BARBARA is expected to dump up to 12 inches of rain over eastern Oaxaca through western Chiapas after making landfall, generating a storm surge of up to 5 feet above normal tide levels, NHC added.
Vegetable greenhouses are flooded in Bijie City, SW China’s Guizhou Province, May 29, 2013. The region experienced an extreme rain event from Tuesday through Wednesday. (Xinhua/Deng Jie)
-oOo-
DISASTER CALENDAR – May 29, 2013— SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,018 Days Left
Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.
SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,018 Days Left to ‘Worst Day’ in the brief Human History
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Crosses 400PPM Milestone at Hawaii Observatory
On April 3, FIRE-EARTH forecast that the weekly average atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa could hit 400ppm by May 2013.
Last 5 days of daily average CO2
May 09 – 400.03 | May 08 – 399.42 | May 07 – 399.59 | May 06 – 399.43 | May 05 – 399.47 |
This is the first time the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in Hawaii tops 400ppm since measurement began in 1958, according to ESRL data.
The rise to 400ppm level of the atmospheric carbon dioxide represents yet another appalling milestone in the brief history of the homo ignarus.
The last time Earth’s atmosphere contained this much carbon dioxide was probably as many as 5 million years ago.
CO2 Daily and Weekly Means at Mauna Loa. The weekly mean (red bar) is simply the average of all days in the week for which a background value could be defined. The average standard deviation of day to day variability, calculated as the difference from the appropriate weekly mean, equals 0.38 ppm for the entire record. As a visual aid, the blue lines present monthly means of background data as they are presented under Recent Monthly CO2 at Mauna Loa. [Source: ESRL/NOAA]
One Year of CO2 daily and weekly means at Mauna Loa
The graph, updated weekly, shows as individual points daily mean CO2 up to and including the week (Sunday through Saturday) previous to today. The daily means are based on hours during which CO2 was likely representative of “background” conditions, defined as times when the measurement is representative of air at mid-altitudes over the Pacific Ocean. That air has had several days time or more to mix, smoothing out most of the CO2 variability encountered elsewhere, making the measurements representative of CO2 over hundreds of km or more. The selection process is designed to filter out any influence of nearby emissions, or removals, of CO2 such as caused by the vegetation on the island of Hawaii, and likewise emissions from the volcanic crater of Mauna Loa. Source: ESRL/NOAA
Weekly average CO2 at Mauna Loa could hit 400ppm by May 2013: FIRE-EARTH
FIRE-EARTH projections show, based on the data provided by Mauna Loa Observatory, the average CO2 at Mauna Loa could climb to 400ppm in the next 6 weeks.
Up-to-date weekly average CO2 at Mauna Loa
Week of March 24, 2013: 397.92 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 395.30 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 377.06 ppm
CO2 Daily and Weekly Means at Mauna Loa [April 2012 – March 2013.] The weekly mean (red bar) is simply the average of all days in the week for which a background value could be defined. The average standard deviation of day to day variability, calculated as the difference from the appropriate weekly mean, equals 0.38 ppm for the entire record. As a visual aid, the blue lines present monthly means of background data as they are presented under Recent Monthly CO2 at Mauna Loa. [Source: ESRL/NOAA]
Recent Mauna Loa CO2
February 2013: 396.80 ppm
February 2012: 393.54 ppm
The graph shows recent monthly mean carbon dioxide measured at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii. [Source: ESRL/NOAA]
Monthly mean atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii [Source: ESRL/NOAA]
Recent Global CO2
January 2013: 395.09 ppm
January 2012: 392.44 ppm
The graph shows recent monthly mean carbon dioxide globally averaged over marine surface sites. [Images sourced from ESRL/NOAA]
Historic
Time history of atmospheric carbon dioxide from 800,000 years ago until January, 2012.
Global average abundances of the major, well-mixed, long-lived greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, CFC-12 and CFC-11 – from the NOAA global air sampling network are plotted since the beginning of 1979. These gases account for about 96% of the direct radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases since 1750. The remaining 4% is contributed by an assortment of 15 minor halogenated gases (see text). Methane data before 1983 are annual averages from Etheridge et al. (1998), adjusted to the NOAA calibration scale [Dlugokencky et al., 2005]. Source: ESRL/NOAA. Click on image to view larger image. Click HERE for full size figure .
Concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached record high in 2010: WMO
The atmospheric GHG rose faster in 2010 than the decadal average.
Disaster Calendar 2011 – November 21
[November 21, 2011] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,577 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History
Global Mega Disasters. The concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached record high in 2010, according to WMO. The atmospheric GHG rose faster in 2010 than the decadal average.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration has risen by 39 percent to 389 parts per million (ppm) since 1750.
Methane (CH4) concentration has climbed by 158 percent since 1750 to a record high of 1,808 parts per billion(ppb), and up by 5 ppb since 2009.
Nitrous oxide (N2O) levels were 20 percent higher at 323.2ppb than the pre-industrial era.
According to the latest Greenhouse Gas Bulletin, the seventh in the series that began in 2004, there has been a 29 percent rise in radiative forcing from greenhouse gases between 1990 and 2010.
The atmospheric CO2 rose by 2.3ppm in 2010 compared to 2.0ppm in the previous year and the annual average of 1.5 ppm in the 1990s.
“The atmospheric burden of greenhouse gases due to human activities has yet again reached record levels since pre-industrial time,” said WMO Secretary-General.
“Even if we managed to halt our greenhouse gas emissions today, and this is far from the case, they would continue to linger in the atmosphere for decades to come and so continue to affect the delicate balance of our living planet and our climate,” he added.
Recent monthly mean carbon dioxide globally averaged over marine surface sites. Source: NOAA
Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at record levels: the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
The average mixing ratios of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) reached record level in 2009,WMO reported.
CO2 concentrations ~ 386.8 ppm
CH4 ~ 1,803 ppb
N2O ~ 322.5 ppb
These values are greater than the corresponding atmospheric concentrations in pre-industrial times (~1750) by 38%, 158% and 19%, respectively.
In the twenty year period between 1990 and 2009, the combined radiative forcing—the balance between atmosphere’s incoming and outgoing radiation—for all persistent greenhouse gases increased by 27.5%, with CO2 accounting for about 80% of the increase, according to the NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index.
Source: WMO GHG Bulletin
Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
Carbon dioxide is the single most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, contributing 63.54 %2 to the overall global radiative forcing. It is responsible for 85% of the increase in radiative forcing over the past decade and 83% over the last five years. For about 10 000 years before the industrial revolution, the atmospheric abundance of CO2 was nearly constant at ~ 280 ppm (ppm = number of molecules of the gas per million molecules of dry air). This level represented a balance among the atmosphere, the oceans and the biosphere. Since 1750, atmospheric CO2 has increased by 38%, primarily because of emissions from combustion of fossil fuels (8.7 Gt carbon in 2008, http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/), deforestation and landuse change. High-precision measurements of atmospheric CO2 beginning in 1958 show that the average increase in CO2 in the atmosphere (airborne fraction) corresponds to ~ 55% of the CO2 emitted by fossil fuel combustion. WMO
A new modeling study shows that the planet’s temperature is controlled by the atmospheric CO2, NASA says.
Various atmospheric components differ in their contributions to the greenhouse effect, some through feedbacks and some through forcings. Without carbon dioxide and other non-condensing greenhouse gases, water vapor and clouds would be unable to provide the feedback mechanisms that amplify the greenhouse effect. Source: NASA GISS
Water vapor and clouds are the major contributors to Earth’s greenhouse effect, but a new atmosphere-ocean climate modeling study shows that the planet’s temperature ultimately depends on the atmospheric level of carbon dioxide.
The study, conducted by Andrew Lacis and colleagues at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York, examined the nature of Earth’s greenhouse effect and clarified the role that greenhouse gases and clouds play in absorbing outgoing infrared radiation. Notably, the team identified non-condensing greenhouse gases — such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, and chlorofluorocarbons — as providing the core support for the terrestrial greenhouse effect.
Without non-condensing greenhouse gases, water vapor and clouds would be unable to provide the feedback mechanisms that amplify the greenhouse effect. The study’s results will be published Friday, Oct. 15 in Science.
A companion study led by GISS co-author Gavin Schmidt that has been accepted for publication in the Journal of Geophysical Research shows that carbon dioxide accounts for about 20 percent of the greenhouse effect, water vapor and clouds together account for 75 percent, and minor gases and aerosols make up the remaining five percent. However, it is the 25 percent non-condensing greenhouse gas component, which includes carbon dioxide, that is the key factor in sustaining Earth’s greenhouse effect. By this accounting, carbon dioxide is responsible for 80 percent of the radiative forcing that sustains the Earth’s greenhouse effect.
The climate forcing experiment described in Science was simple in design and concept — all of the non-condensing greenhouse gases and aerosols were zeroed out, and the global climate model was run forward in time to see what would happen to the greenhouse effect. Without the sustaining support by the non-condensing greenhouse gases, Earth’s greenhouse effect collapsed as water vapor quickly precipitated from the atmosphere, plunging the model Earth into an icebound state — a clear demonstration that water vapor, although contributing 50 percent of the total greenhouse warming, acts as a feedback process, and as such, cannot by itself uphold the Earth’s greenhouse effect.
“Our climate modeling simulation should be viewed as an experiment in atmospheric physics, illustrating a cause and effect problem which allowed us to gain a better understanding of the working mechanics of Earth’s greenhouse effect, and enabled us to demonstrate the direct relationship that exists between rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and rising global temperature,” Lacis said.
The study ties in to the geologic record in which carbon dioxide levels have oscillated between approximately 180 parts per million during ice ages, and about 280 parts per million during warmer interglacial periods. To provide perspective to the nearly 1 C (1.8 F) increase in global temperature over the past century, it is estimated that the global mean temperature difference between the extremes of the ice age and interglacial periods is only about 5 C (9 F).
“When carbon dioxide increases, more water vapor returns to the atmosphere. This is what helped to melt the glaciers that once covered New York City,” said co-author David Rind, of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. “Today we are in uncharted territory as carbon dioxide approaches 390 parts per million in what has been referred to as the ‘superinterglacial.'”
“The bottom line is that atmospheric carbon dioxide acts as a thermostat in regulating the temperature of Earth,” Lacis said. “The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has fully documented the fact that industrial activity is responsible for the rapidly increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. It is not surprising then that global warming can be linked directly to the observed increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide and to human industrial activity in general.”
Congratulations! Your atmospheric levels of CO2 are at a million-year high!
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Levels Rise to New Heights
1. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere rose to an 800,000 year high of 392 ppm, a rise of about 3 ppm in 12 months, said Kim Holmen, research director at the Norwegian Polar Institute.
2. Holmen told Reuters the measurements were taken by a Stockholm University team on the Arctic archipelago of Svalbard, northern Norway.
3. “Carbon dioxide concentrations are likely to have risen further in 2009, he said. They usually peak just before the start of spring in the northern hemisphere, where most of the world’s industry, cities and vegetation are concentrated.” Reuters reported.
4. The precision of analysis of the Law Dome ice core air samples [and other data] show that levels of carbon dioxide are the highest in at least 800,000 years, and up by about 41 percent since the Industrial Revolution [278 ppm.]
5. The CO2 rise is caused by “mainly fossil fuel burning and to some extent land use change, where you have forests being replaced by agricultural land,” Holmen said.
6. Although the latest data is from December 2008, Holmen said, the trend from the winter numbers are obvious.
7. Mauna Loa CO2 monthly mean data: January 2009: 386.92 ppm
Fire Earth 
