Tropical Storm Alex Forms Near BELIZE

TS ALEX the First Named Storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season 2010 Nears the Coast of Belize

Northern Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula experiencing heavy rainfall.

Alex – Visible/Infrared satellite image – Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge

Alex poses a potential threat to the Gulf of Mexico cleanup operation, though the risk is seen as minimal at this stage.

GOES East Hurricane Sector Infrared Image. Click image to update.

U.S. Coast Guard Admiral Thad (FAT) Allen was quoted as saying BP may be forced to suspend oil containment operations, “if a storm with gale-force winds were expected within five days at the leak site.” Reuters reported.

“We understand it’s moving westerly at this time and does not threaten the site,” said Allen, adding however, “we all know that the weather is unpredictable.”

Shell Oil Co has announced that it would also evacuate 300 non-essential employees from its Gulf of Mexico offshore operations as a precaution, the report said.

ALEX Projected Path: Various Dynamical Models Forecasts.  Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge

Meanwhile, the state of Louisiana filed a motion with the U.S. Appeals Court for the Fifth Circuit on Saturday opposing the DOI’s request to stay a ruling from the federal judge who overturned a six-month ban on new deepwater drilling in the Gulf, Reuters reported.

TS ALEX: Summary of Details  at 00:01 UTC, Sunday 27 June 2010

• LOCATION: 17.4N 88.1W
• Distances
  • About 25km (15 miles)  SE of Belize City
  • About 125km  (75miles) south of Chetumal, Mexico
• Max. Sustained Winds 100km/hr (65 MPH)
• Currently Moving W (280 degrees) at 19km/hr (12 MPH)
• Min Central Pressure 996 MB (29.41 inches)

Satellite Imagery:

Satellite Imagery (GOES 12 Floater/NOAA/SSD)

• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Water Vapor
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Visible
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Infrared

• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Infrared
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Water Vapor
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Visible
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Visible (Colorized)
• Gulf of Mexico – Infrared
• Gulf of Mexico – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)
• Gulf of Mexico – Water Vapor
• Gulf of Mexico – Visible
• Gulf of Mexico – Visible (Colorized)

Loops/ Satellite Animations (GOES 12; NOAA/SSD)

• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Water Vapor
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Visible
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Infrared

Related Links:

• Gulf of Mexico Oil Disaster: Headline News
• Tropical Depression One: Forecast
• Tropical Depression One: Forecast
• Tropical Wave Continues to Wreak Havoc Across Caribbean

Tropical Depression One: Forecast

Tropical Depression One: Initial Motion Highly Uncertain

Tropical Depression One Moving West-Northwestward Toward Belize and the Yucatan peninsula, Mexico.

GOES EAST – IR Satellite Image (AVNCOLOR Enhancement). Click image to update.

Summary of Details @ 11:00 pm EDT 03:00 UTC (source: NHC)

• Location: 16.7N 84.4W
• Distances:
  • About 415 km (255 miles) ESE of Belize City
  • About 460 km (285 miles) ESE of Chetumal, Mexico
• Maximum sustained winds 55 km/hr (35 mph)
• Present movement: WNW or 295 degrees at 15 km/hr (9 mph)
• Minimum central pressure: 1004 mb, 753.1mm (29.65 inches)

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center (NOAA)

Click image to update forecast track.

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Atlantic and East Pacific Oceans

• Real Time POES Imagery Atlantic/East Pacific SST Loop

• SSMI/AMSRE-derived Total Precipitable Water – Global

Satellite Imagery (GOES 12 Floater/NOAA/SSD)

• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Water Vapor
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Visible
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Infrared

• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Infrared
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Water Vapor
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Visible
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Visible (Colorized)
• Gulf of Mexico – Infrared
• Gulf of Mexico – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)
• Gulf of Mexico – Water Vapor
• Gulf of Mexico – Visible
• Gulf of Mexico – Visible (Colorized)

Loops/ Satellite Animations (GOES 12; NOAA/SSD)

• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Water Vapor
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Visible
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Infrared

Related Links:

• Tropical Wave Continues to Wreak Havoc Across Caribbean
• 2010 Hurricane Forecast

UPDATE: TS DOLLY, CRISTOBAL & Hurricane Fausto

For July 23 UPDATE Click Here >> Dolly, Now A Hurricane, Heads Towards S. Texas

Look Out, Dolly Is Coming!

Dolly May Be Heading Towards Southern Texas

NOAA Advisories:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
800 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

DOLLY ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF YUCATAN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO.

AT 8 AM EDT (1200 UTC) THE GOVERNMENT OF YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE.

INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DOLLY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA – INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH/LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST
OR ABOUT 65 MILES (105 KM) EAST-NORTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/HR). A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/HR) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY AS THE CENTER OF
THE STORM MOVES OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND DOLLY COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES (280 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON PRELIMINARY REPORTS
FROM NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND IN WESTERN CUBA WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION 21.6 N. 88.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

1100 AM EDT. – FORECASTER KNABB

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
500 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

CRISTOBAL CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS

AT 500 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST OR ABOUT 110
MILES (175 KM) NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH (20
KM/HR) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK CRISTOBAL WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/HR) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB…29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION 36.1 N 73.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

1100 AM EDT. – FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FAUSTO ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
200 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2008

FAUSTO STRENGTHENS TO CATEGORY TWO STATUS

AT 200 AM PDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FAUSTO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH LONGITUDE 115.4 WEST OR ABOUT 405 MILES
(650 KM) WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

FAUSTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/HR) AND
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH (160 KM/HR) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE HURRICANE HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND
SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES (185 KM).

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB (28.79 INCHES).

REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION 20.1 N. 115.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT. – FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

Related Links:

• HURRICANE FAUSTO
• Tropical Storm Cristobal Treks Northeast
• National Weather Warnings

.