Cyclone DEBBIE Could Strike Australia’s QLD Coast as Cat 4

DEBBIE strengthens to cat 2, could strike QLD coast  as cat 4 cyclone —Report

Details of Tropical Cyclone DEBBIE at 1:00 am AEST (UTC+10:00) on Sunday 26 March 2017, sourced from BOM:

• Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the center of 100 km/h with wind gusts to 140 km/h
• Location: within 30km of 17.9 degrees South 151.8 degrees East, estimated to be 545km east northeast of Townsville and 500km east northeast of Ayr.
• Movement: slow moving.
• Tropical Cyclone DEBBIE intensified to a category 2 cyclone earlier tonight. The system remains slow moving at the present time. It is expected to adopt a steady west-southwest track later this morning, which will continue for the next few days. Conditions will remain favorable for the cyclone to develop further before landfall, which will likely be between Townsville and Proserpine on Tuesday morning.

The BOM satellite showing Cyclone DEBBIE on Saturday afternoon/ http://www.abc.net.au/

Extreme Weather Events Pummel Australia

Extreme Rain Events, High Winds  Pummel NSW, Tasmania as Queensland Mops Up

“Wild weather that thrashed parts of Queensland over the weekend is continuing to pummel New South Wales, with the east coast low pressure system reaching as far south as Tasmania amid warnings of heavy rain, flash flooding and damaging winds,” said a report.

A flood evacuation warning is in place for multiple areas in NSW including residents living along the Georges River, in Sydney’s southwest, the report said.

Huge surf is also causing widespread coastal erosion with police door knocking affected homes in the Northern Beaches.

Hundreds of thousands of homes across the state have been affected by power outages as a result of wild weather.

Hundreds of people were evacuated from North Lismore, as major flooding peaked at 9.1 meters in the Lismore area Sunday afternoon.

The weather system has also extended down to Tasmania, with an “exceptional” huge swell expected to hit Tasmania’s north-east on Monday.

The state is predicted to receive up to 200 millimeters of rain in the coming days, with warnings of flash flooding.

Flood warnings are in place for eight rivers in the state, with major warnings current for the Meander River and Mersey River, with forecasters warning the Mersey basin is at most risk of major flooding.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has forecast ‘king waves’ of up to eight meters to cause erosion along the northeast coast.

Mount Victoria recorded rainfall amounts of 76mm, with destructive winds peaking at 107 km/h at Mount Read.

“That north-easterly swell’s actually getting up to the six to seven-metre mark on Monday which is very, very, large for our secondary swell,” a BoM forecaster said.

“Typically we only see those swell heights in our south-westerly stream. So it’s an exceptional swell for the east coast.”

Since Friday morning, 382mm of rain had fallen at Upper Springbrook in the Gold Coast hinterland, with nearby Mount Tamborine receiving  357mm, BoM reported.

Australia Had Warmest Spring, Third-Warmest Year in 2014

CLIMATE CHANGE DISASTERS
EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
MAJOR EMERGENCY
RISING TEMPERATURES
DESTRUCTIVE WILDFIRES
MASS EVACUATIONS
LOSS OF HABITAT
LOSS OF CROPS & LIVESTOCK
SCENARIOS 900, 800, 555, 444, 111, 101, 100, 080, 071, 070, 03, 02
.

SSTs around Australia were unusually warm at 0.49°C above average

Australia recorded its third-warmest calendar year in 104 years, since national records began in 1910, said the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).

“Today’s release of the Bureau of Meteorology Annual Climate Statement 2014 confirms Australia has recorded its third-warmest calendar year since national records began in 1910.”

Mean temperatures were 0.91C above the long-term average last year, said BOM.

“This follows the warmest year on record in 2013, which was 1.20°C warmer than average.”

The news comes amid South Australia’s worst bushfires in thirty years, as a major wildfire Adelaide Hills continues to burn uncontrollably, with soaring temperatures and strong winds forecast to fuel it further.

The monster blaze has already consumed at least 38 homes, 125 outbuildings and four businesses, the South Australian authorities have confirmed.

BOM Report: Selected Highlights

• Spring 2014 was the warmest on record in Australia.

• A number of major bushfires occurred during January and February, with particularly destructive fires in Victoria and South Australia.

• Six significant heatwaves and warm spells occurred, including one of southeast Australia’s most prolonged heatwaves in mid-January.

• Prolonged rainfall deficiencies continued for inland and southeastern Queensland and northeastern New South Wales.

• Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around Australia were unusually warm; 0.49°C above average for the year to November.

• Australian temperatures have warmed approximately one degree Celsius since 1950, and the continued warmth in 2014 adds to this long-term warming trend.

El Niño event almost certain: BOM

El Niño event likely, says Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology

More evidence of a developing El Niño event has emerged during the past fortnight, and computer forecasts show there’s very little chance of the development stalling or reversing. —BOM

Equatorial sea-surface temperatures are currently more than 1°C above normal in the eastern Pacific, while the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remains below zero at around −2, says BOM.

A sustained negative SOI is often associated with El Nino conditions.

BOM hopes to provide a clear picture of the situation in the Pacific by next week when their final June data are analyzed.

El Niño events are usually (but not always) associated with below normal rainfall in the second half of the year across large parts of southern and inland eastern Australia.

Another adverse sign for southeastern Australian rainfall is the recent trend to positive values in the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), as measured by the Dipole Mode Index (DMI).

The next BOM update is available on July 8, 2009.

Last month FEWW reported US Climate Prediction Center as saying that conditions were favorable for a transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño conditions during June – August 2009.

Click image to update and enlarge.

Images from Tropical Atmospheric Ocean project: NOAA

Summary of BOM Weekly Update:

• The Pacific Ocean sea surface is currently significantly warmer than the long-term average across most of the tropical Pacific, especially central to eastern areas.
• A large amount of the sub-surface water of the tropical Pacific is also warmer than the long-term average, particularly in the east.
• The latest 30-day SOI value is −2, while the monthly value for May was −5.
• Trade winds remain weaker than normal across the central equatorial Pacific.
• Cloudiness near the date-line is near-normal, and is yet to show a consistent trend towards El Niño conditions.
• All international climate models predict the tropical Pacific to continue to warm and to be above El Niño thresholds throughout most of the second half of 2009.

“Australia is the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter and its grain production is still recovering from the worst drought in more than 100 years that reduced the 2006/07 crop to just 10.6 million tonnes and the 2007/08 crop to 13.0 million tonnes.” Reuters reported.

FEWW Moderators estimate that a new episode of El Niño, which would have devastating impact globally, could cause up to $500 billion in damages.

Related Links:

• El Niño could develop June – August 2009

• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams

• El Niño Forecasts
• El Niño [Main Page]

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