FIRE-EARTH Presentation: Pump Up the Volume!!

The impact of climate change on nuclear and hydroelectric power production!

• Prepared by FIRE-EARTH Science and affiliated scientists..

Details available via FIRE-EARTH PULSARS.

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Tourism Responsible for 8% of Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Submitted by edmundironside

Tourism is responsible for a twelfth of world greenhouse gas emissions

Emissions from tourism were found to be highest in the United States, China, Germany and India, according to a review of 160 nations led by the University of Sydney researchers and published in the journal Nature Climate Change.

Flights, hotels, food and production of souvenirs, accounted for emission of the equivalent of 4.5 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2013, the latest data available [tourism has been growing at an annual rate of about 4 percent since. Editor] or 8 percent of all anthropogenic greenhouse gases, up from 3.9 billion in 2009, according to the report.

The carbon footprint of global tourism

By Manfred Lenzen et al., 2018

Published by Nature Climate Change (2018) doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0141-x

Abstract

Tourism contributes significantly to global gross domestic product, and is forecast to grow at an annual 4%, thus outpacing many other economic sectors. However, global carbon emissions related to tourism are currently not well quantified. Here, we quantify tourism-related global carbon flows between 160 countries, and their carbon footprints under origin and destination accounting perspectives. We find that, between 2009 and 2013, tourism’s global carbon footprint has increased from 3.9 to 4.5 GtCO2e, four times more than previously estimated, accounting for about 8% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Transport, shopping and food are significant contributors. The majority of this footprint is exerted by and in high-income countries. The rapid increase in tourism demand is effectively outstripping the decarbonization of tourism-related technology. We project that, due to its high carbon intensity and continuing growth, tourism will constitute a growing part of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions.

Related Links

• Hundreds of millions Billions worldwide face disaster

 

‘Doomsday’ Timeline Far Too Optimistic !

“Famine, economic collapse, a sun that cooks us: What climate change could wreak — sooner than you think.” —Essay

“Indeed, absent a significant adjustment to how billions of humans conduct their lives, parts of the Earth will likely become close to uninhabitable, and other parts horrifically inhospitable, as soon as the end of this century,” according to an essay titled The Uninhabitable Earth.

• “The end of this century?” Really? How will they make it over the next 80 years?

• So humans can survive for another four generations?

• Is it still politically incorrect to state categorically that the greedy, fearful humans, the dumbest animals capable of intelligence, just can’t make it?

 

 

FIRE-EARTH Climate Forecast – 80

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[Issued by FIRE-EARTH Science Team.]

• Details of Forecast and current ALERTS are available from FIRE-EARTH PULSARS.

 

Australia: Sickly Canary in Planet Coalmine

205 Weather records broken in 90 days: Climate Council of Australia

Excerpts from “ANGRY SUMMER 2016/17: CLIMATE CHANGE SUPER-CHARGING EXTREME WEATHER”

The Australian summer of 2016/17 marked the return of the Angry Summer with record-breaking heat especially in the east of the nation. The Angry Summer was characterised [sic] by intense heatwaves, hot days and bushfires in central and eastern Australia, while heavy rainfall and flooding affected the west of the country.

Key Findings:

• More than 205 records were broken across Australia in 90 days.
• New South Wales (NSW) experienced its hottest state-wide mean temperature on record with temperatures 2.57°C above average.
• The 2016/17 extreme summer heat in NSW was at least 50 times more likely to occur due to climate change.

Sinking Mexico City Faces Water Crisis

Large parts of Mexico City sinking at rates of up to 23cm per year —Report

“Always short of water, Mexico City keeps drilling deeper for more, weakening the ancient clay lake beds on which the Aztecs first built much of the city, causing it to crumble even further.”

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/02/17/world/americas/mexico-city-sinking.html

Related Links

Drying Aquifers, Sinking Cities

Hell Hath No Fury Like the Climate Scorned

Hottest February day in NSW as “extraordinary heatwave” moves across Australia

The heatwave moving across the sub continent is expected to intensify over the weekend, elevating the threat of potentially catastrophic fire conditions, authorities warned.

New South Wales could face its hottest February day on record, with temperatures reaching 47ºC in western parts of the state, said the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).

The temperature reached 47.4ºC in Hay Airport, making it the third-hottest day recorded in February for NSW, and the record could be shattered on Saturday, said reports.

Meanwhile, Sydney set a temperature record for the number of days over 35ºC, as most of the city broiled in the 40s.

 

 

Mercury Threat to Oceans Escalating due to Climate Change

More mercury than ever before threaten aquatic ecosystems –Study

Mercury levels in fish could increase by up to seven times the current levels as temperatures continue rising, say researchers.

Marine ecosystems, and mainly their coastal zones, have been estimated to contribute more than 60% of the total economic value of the biosphere . These ecosystem services are currently threatened by anthropogenic pollution and a changing climate. Increased terrestrial water runoff and accompanied input of terrestrial NOM and nutrients to lakes and coastal sea areas have been observed in several regions during the late 20th century. These increases are predicted to escalate for large regions worldwide following increased air temperatures and precipitation events.

The study Terrestrial discharges mediate trophic shifts and enhance methylmercury accumulation in estuarine biota has been published in Science Advances. 

Abstract

The input of mercury (Hg) to ecosystems is estimated to have increased two- to fivefold during the industrial era, and Hg accumulates in aquatic biota as neurotoxic methylmercury (MeHg). Escalating anthropogenic land use and climate change are expected to alter the input rates of terrestrial natural organic matter (NOM) and nutrients to aquatic ecosystems. For example, climate change has been projected to induce 10 to 50% runoff increases for large coastal regions globally. A major knowledge gap is the potential effects on MeHg exposure to biota following these ecosystem changes. We monitored the fate of five enriched Hg isotope tracers added to mesocosm scale estuarine model ecosystems subjected to varying loading rates of nutrients and terrestrial NOM. We demonstrate that increased terrestrial NOM input to the pelagic zone can enhance the MeHg bioaccumulation factor in zooplankton by a factor of 2 to 7 by inducing a shift in the pelagic food web from autotrophic to heterotrophic. The terrestrial NOM input also enhanced the retention of MeHg in the water column by up to a factor of 2, resulting in further increased MeHg exposure to pelagic biota. Using mercury mass balance calculations, we predict that MeHg concentration in zooplankton can increase by a factor of 3 to 6 in coastal areas following scenarios with 15 to 30% increased terrestrial runoff. The results demonstrate the importance of incorporating the impact of climate-induced changes in food web structure on MeHg bioaccumulation in future biogeochemical cycling models and risk assessments of Hg.

Terrestrial discharges mediate trophic shifts and enhance methylmercury accumulation in estuarine biota

Sofi Jonsson et al. http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/1/e1601239.full

FIRE-EARTH Alert: Warmest 5 Years on Record

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2011 to 2015 the Warmest Years on Record: WMO

• The five years from 2011 to 2015 were the warmest on record, with temperatures higher  one degrees Celsius (1.8 °F) above pre-industrial times, according to data released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
• The burning of fossil fuels increased the probability of extreme weather events including heat by at least a factor of 10, says WMO.
• 2016 will likely set a new record for warmest year.
• The last five-year period beat 2006-2010 as the warmest such period since records began about 150 years ago.

• Details of the Alert are available from FIRE-EARTH PULSARS.

 

More than 5,000 Melting Glaciers Threaten Pakistan

Average temperatures in the mountainous valleys of Pakistan risen by up to 10°C

Some 5,128 glaciers located in ten river basins of Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) region, are melting rapidly due to increase in average temperatures in the mountainous valleys.

“Presently, glacial melting is among major global warming-induced risk Pakistan is grappled with. Other risks include sea-level rise, floods, higher than average temperature, a higher frequency of droughts and expanding desertification,” Pakistan’s Deputy Director Ministry of Climate Change Mohammad Saleem told APP on Tuesday.

Source: http://dailytimes.com.pk/

Increased or above-normal flows are occurring in glacial streams in the summer time feeding the 3,500 kilometer-long Indus River.

The mountain streams now flow even in winter, which was never observed couple of years ago as revealed by the residents particularly Hunza, Ghizer, Gupis, Skardu, Gulmit and Bagrot valleys of the Gilgit-Baltistan in the country’s north, reflecting the gravity of the global warming issue, he said.

“Temperatures in most of the mountainous valleys never used to go beyond 30 degree Celsius during summer but now it surpasses 40 degree Celsius at times.”

“This rise in temperature was causing expansion of rainy weather on one hand and squeezing the snowfall period on the other. The reduced snowfall period makes it difficult for the snow to take the shape of glaciers,” Saleem said.

Increase in frequency and intensity in rainfall instead of snowfall in these mountains triggers flash floods, which results in large-scale damages in the areas. The official, who is also spokesman of the ministry, said besides rising earth temperatures, high paced urbanization of the mountain valleys and increased vehicular traffic have accelerated the melting process of the glaciers.

Alarmingly, melting process continues in winter causing exceptional flow in streams and rivers, which in turn is causing flooding in these valleys, threatening lives and livelihoods of the locals and damaging the infrastructure, the report said.

Recent findings of 10 weather monitoring stations installed by the Pakistan Meteorological Department also concluded that glaciers in ablation zone [which refers to the low-altitude area of a glacier] is receding faster and snowline is marching upward. This means shrinking in the glacier area. “This means that the ablation zones are increasing and accumulation zones of the glaciers reducing.”

It is because at the lower elevation up to 2,500 meters the heat penetration is increasing, which is causing the glaciers shrink at such elevation levels. For instance, one weather monitoring station installed at the Hinarchi glacier in Bagrot valley of Gilgit district, has showed that the glacier has retreated 800 meters in the 32 years between 1977 and 2009. It retreated another 300 meters between 2009 and 2014.

Likewise, the Baulter glacier which had retreated 1,500 meters, shrank another 400 meters by 2014. The future of the Barpu glacier looks bleak as it has shrunk 640 meters since 1977.

“According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), there were some 2,400 potentially hazardous glacial lakes in the country’s remotest mountain valleys in 2010, a number that has now increased to over 3,000.”

Read more…

“Inventory of Glaciers and Glacial Lakes and the Identification of Potential Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) Affected by Global Warming in the Mountains ofIndia, Pakistan and China/Tibet Autonomous Region”

A 2005 study identified 5,218 glaciers with the glacier area coverage of 15,040 km² [with 2,738 km³ of ice reserves] and 2,420 lakes including 52 “potentially dangerous” glacial lakes in Pakistan.

• In Indian Himalaya, the Tista River basin covers 285 glaciers with the glacier area of 576 km², 266 glacial lakes and 14 potentially dangerous glacial lakes.

• The Himachal Pradesh region holds 2,554 glaciers with the glacier area of 4,160 km² and 229 lakes including 22 potential GLOF.

• The Uttaranchal Himalayan region holds 1,439 glaciers with the glacier area of 4,060 km². Some 127 lakes are identified from the satellite images but none is classified as potential GLOF.

• In Tibet Autonomous Region, a total of 1,578 glaciers with a glacier area of 2,864 km², were mapped in the sub-basins of Ganges River. Some 824 lakes were identified including 77 lakes as potential GLOF.

 

Global Temperature Analysis – February 2016

February 2016 the warmest ever: NOAA

The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces (SST) for February 2016 was the highest for February in the 137-year period of record, at 1.21°C (2.18°F) above the 20th century average of 12.1°C (53.9°F), surpassing the previous record set in 2015 by 0.33°C (0.59°F).

It also surpassed the all-time monthly record set just two months ago in December 2015 by 0.09°C (0.16°F).

• The six highest monthly temperature departures on record have all occurred in the past six months.
• February 2016 also marks the 10th consecutive month a monthly global temperature record has been broken.

Global Land Temp

The average global temperature across land surfaces was 2.31°C (4.16°F) above the 20th century average of 3.2°C (37.8°F), the highest February temperature on record, surpassing the previous records set in 1998 and 2015 by 0.63°C (1.13°F) and surpassing the all-time single-month record set in March 2008 by 0.43°C (0.77°F).

SST

February’s globally-averaged sea surface temperature was 0.81°C (1.46°F) above the 20th century average of 15.9°C (60.6°F). This was the highest for February on record, surpassing the previous records set in 1998 and 2015 by 0.36°C (0.20°F), and was the sixth highest departure from average among all 1,632 months in the record.

• The nine highest monthly global ocean temperature departures have all occurred in the past nine months (since July 2015).

December–February

The December–February seasonal global temperature was 1.13°C (2.03°F) above the 20th century average of 12.1°C (53.8°F). This was the highest for December–February in the 1880–2016 record, surpassing the previous record set last year by 0.29°C (0.52°F). December 2015–February 2016 also marks the highest 3-month departure from average for any 3-month period on record, surpassing the previous record set last month, November 2015–January 2016, by 0.09°C (0.16°F).

• The globally-averaged temperature across land surfaces was also the highest on record for December–February, at 1.93°C (3.47°F) above the 20th century average of 3.2°C (37.8°F). This surpasses the previous record set last year by 0.46°C (0.83°F) and marks the highest 3-month departure from average for any 3-month period on record, surpassing the previous record of November 2015–January 2016 by 0.40°C (0.70°F).

• SST for the period was 0.84°C (1.51°F) above the 20th century average of 15.8°C (60.5°F), the highest for December–February on record, surpassing the previous record set in 2009/10 by 0.22°C (0.40°F).

The first two months of 2016 were the warmest such period on record across the world’s land and ocean surfaces, at 1.13°C (2.03°F) above the 20th century average of 12.1°C (53.8°F), surpassing the previous record set in 2015 by 0.29°C (0.52°F).

The average SST for the year-to-date was the highest for January–February in the 137-year period of record, at 0.83°C (1.49°F) above average, surpassing the previous record set in 2010 by 0.22°C (0.40°F). The average land surface temperature was also record high, at 1.95°C (3.51°F) above average, surpassing the previous record of 2002 by 0.41°C (0.74°F).

Source: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate: Global Analysis for February 2016, published online March 2016, retrieved on March 18, 2016 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201602.

Lakes Worldwide Rapidly Warming

Climate change rapidly heating up lakes globally

Climate change is rapidly heating up the lakes, threatening freshwater supplies and ecosystems globally, according to a comprehensive study spanning six continents, said a report.

The research, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, was carried out by  more than 60 scientists and was announced at the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union.

Ice on Lake Vortsjarv in Estonia. Ice-covered lakes warm faster than those with open water. Credit: T. Noges

“Our knowledge of how lakes are responding to global change has been lacking,” said the program director in the Division of Environmental Biology at the National Science Foundation, which funded the research. “That has made forecasting the future of lakes—and the life and livelihoods they support—very challenging. These newly reported trends are a wake-up call to scientists and citizens, including water resource managers and those who depend on freshwater fisheries.”

Lakes warming faster than oceans or atmosphere

Lakes are warming an average of 0.61 degrees Fahrenheit each decade, which greater than the both the warming rate of oceans and atmosphere.

“Lakes are important because society depends on surface water for the vast majority of human uses—not just for drinking water, but manufacturing, energy production, irrigation and crops,” said paper co-author Stephanie Hampton of Washington State University. “Protein from freshwater fish is especially important in the developing world.”

The team monitored more than 235 lakes for at least 25 years. That’s a fraction of the world’s lakes, but those contain more than half the world’s freshwater supply.

Various climate factors are linked with the warming trend, which is melting the ice in the lakes earlier. Additionally, many areas, receiving less cloud cover, are exposed to more sunlight.

Temperatures in both northern climates and tropical regions are rising faster than the average, researchers said. Northern lakes are warming 1.3ºF, per decade. Tropical lakes are warming 0.95ºF, per decade.

Warm- and cold-water lakes equally important

Warm-water lakes such as the African Great Lakes, home to one quarter of the planet’s freshwater supply and a major source of fish for food, are undergoing  less dramatic temperature increases, “but their waters may have already nearly reached the highest temperatures fish can tolerate,” Hampton said.

Report is posted HERE.

Asked the planet about 2ºC plan before singing Kumbaya?

sent by a reader

Paris pact aims to keep global warming below 2ºC (3.6F) —ROFLOL
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Obama says Paris climate pact ‘best chance’ to save the planet

When leader of the so-called “free-world” calls the Paris pact the “best chance” to save the planet, what exactly does he mean?

Because if the planet needs saving from something, it would be from the ceaseless and ever-worsening anthropogenic assault that is directed at her.

“Today the American people can be proud because this historic agreement is a tribute to American leadership. Over the past seven years, we’ve transformed the United States into the global leader in fighting climate change,” Obama said.

Paris Agreement

The “Paris Agreement” draft , which comprises of 31 pages states that it recognizes “that climate change represents an urgent and potentially irreversible threat to human societies and the planet and thus requires the widest possible cooperation by all countries, and their participation in an effective and appropriate international response, with a view to accelerating the reduction of global greenhouse gas emissions […] in order to hold the increase in the global average temperature to below 2ºC above pre-industrial levels by reducing emissions to 40 gigatonnes or to 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels…”

“Fighting Climate Change”

Exactly how do you do that? Would be like fighting ISIL in Syria?

“Together, we’ve shown what’s possible when the world stands as one.” Said Mr Obama [and nothing less than singing Kumbaya out loud would do. ]

Paris accord a legally binding treaty?

The Paris pact, unlike the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, is not even a legally binding treaty.

“Senate leadership has already been outspoken in its positions that the United States is not legally bound to any agreement setting emissions targets or any financial commitment to it without approval by Congress,” said Senator James Mountain “Jim” Inhofe, Chairman of the Senate Environment Committee.

What Others Said

• “The Paris Climate Conference is a crucial point in the global climate governance process. The outcome has a real bearing on human beings’ undertakings in climate change and our future of sustainable development,” said China’s Special Representative on Climate Change Xie Zhenhua.

• “It is the best outcome we could have hoped for, not just for the Least Developed Countries, but for all citizens of the world,” said Giza Gaspar Martins, the head of a group representing some of the world’s poorest countries.

• The GOP presidential “previously front-runner” Donald Trump has previously expressed his doubt about science that relates the warming of the climate to carbon emissions, insisting the global temperature “goes up and it goes down.”
• “We cannot afford to be slowed by the climate skeptics or deterred by the defeatists who doubt America’s ability to meet this challenge,” said Hillary Clinton, the other party’s presidential front-runner.

• Scientists now fear [realized?] the climate tipping point could occur at temperatures lower than 2ºC above the pre-industrial levels. So they have changed their tune to keeping the rise at “well below” the previous target, or +1.5ºC.

And the Planet?

She’ll have the last say, to be sure, and you will no doubt hear from her!

Dallas/Fort Worth area set new rain record with 140cm this year

Complex storm system batters New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas as it sweeps across the U.S.

Some 140.2cm (155.23 in) of precipitation in Dallas-Fort Worth area so far this year has set a new record breaking the rainfall record of 136cm set in 1991.

Meanwhile, fast-moving floodwaters have killed at least three people in the Lone Star state, according to reports.

Dozens of weather warnings, watches and advisories are in effect across the country including Flash Flood Warning, Ice Storm Warning, Winter Storm Warning, High Wind Warning, Flood Warning, Gale Warning and Hard Freeze Warning.

The National Weather Service (NWS) has forecast “Significant accumulations of ice and snow will bring dangerous travel conditions and potential power outages to portions of New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. Further east, heavy rain could cause river and flash flooding across the Southern Plains, through the holiday weekend.

Extreme Weather Disasters in Texas

Earlier this month, two days of extreme weather, with tornadoes and flooding, left at least six people dead across the state. More…

In May, flooding killed at least two dozen people in Texas and Oklahoma, and prompted Gov. Abbott to declare disaster in 37 counties.

In July, he extended the May disaster declaration, following the severe weather, tornado and flooding event that began on May 4, 2015, to include 122 counties.

On October 13, 2015, Abbott declared disaster in Bastrop County after devastating wildfires.

Record Federal Disaster Declarations

A Major Disaster Declaration was declared for the state of Texas on November 25, 2015 following the earlier damage and loss caused by severe storms, tornadoes, straight-line winds, and flooding in the counties of Bastrop, Brazoria, Caldwell, Comal, Galveston, Guadalupe, Hardin, Harris, Hays, Hidalgo, Liberty, Navarro, Travis, Willacy, and Wilson during the period of October 22-31, 2015.

Some 339 Major Disaster Declarations (since 1953), Emergency Declarations (since 1993) and Fire Management Assistance Declarations (since 1988) have been declared for Texas, the highest total for any state.

2015 Likely Warmest on Record, 2011-2015 Warmest Five Year Period: WMO

Extreme Weather Triggered as Climate Change Breaches Symbolic Thresholds

2015 is on track to be the warmest year on record, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The global average surface temperature in 2015 would likely reach “the symbolic and significant milestone” of 1°C above the pre-industrial era, said WMO.

Also, the last five years (2011-2015) have been the warmest five-year period on record, with many extreme weather events – especially heatwaves – influenced by climate change, according to a WMO five-year analysis.

Bad News for the Planet

“The state of the global climate in 2015 will make history as for a number of reasons,” said WMO Secretary-General. “Levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached new highs and in the Northern hemisphere spring 2015 the three-month global average concentration of CO2 crossed the 400 parts per million barrier for the first time. 2015 is likely to be the hottest year on record, with ocean surface temperatures at the highest level since measurements began.  It is probable that the 1°C Celsius threshold will be crossed,” he said. “This is all bad news for the planet.”

Based on data from January to October, the global average surface temperature for 2015 so far was about 0.73 °C above the 1961-1990 average of 14.0°C and approximately 1°C above the pre-industrial 1880-1899 period, said WMO.

Ocean heat and sea level rise

The oceans have been absorbing more than 90% of the energy that has accumulated in the climate system from human emissions of greenhouse gases, resulting in higher temperatures and sea levels. In the first nine months of 2015, global ocean heat content through both the upper 700 meters and 2000 meters of the oceans reached record high levels. The latest estimates of global sea level indicate that the global average sea level in the first half of 2015 was the highest since satellite observations became available in 1993.

Significant warmth was recorded across large areas of the oceans. The Tropical Pacific was much warmer than average, exceeding 1°C over much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The northeast Pacific, much of the Indian Ocean and areas in the north and south Atlantic were significantly warmer than average. Areas to the south of Greenland and in the far southwest Atlantic were significantly colder than average.

Ocean heat content down to a depth of 700m (top) and 2000m (bottom). Three-month (red), annual (black) and 5-year (blue) averages are shown. Source: NOAA/NCEI

Related Links

• The WMO Bulletin on Greenhouse Gas Concentrations is posted here
• October Temperature Breaks Global Record November 19, 2015
• De Facto 2°C Global Climate Target = 2 Inch Hole in the Head  October 9, 2015

UNISDR Finally Catches On!

Nine out of ten disasters weather-related: UNISDR

According to a new report issued today by the UN, “The Human Cost of Weather Related Disasters,” between 1995 and 2015, about 90% of all major disasters were caused by floods, storms, heatwaves, droughts and other weather-related events.

Over the past 20 years, some 6,457 recorded weather-related disasters have killed 606,000 people, left 4.1 billion others injured, homeless or in need of aid.

The five countries that experienced the highest number of disasters were the United States (472), China (441), India (288), Philippines (274), and Indonesia, (163).

Economic losses from weather-related disasters are much higher than the previously reported figure of US$1.891 trillion, which accounts for 71% of all losses attributed to “natural disasters” over the twenty-year period, says the report. “Only 35% of records include information about economic losses. UNISDR estimates that the true figure on disaster losses – including earthquakes and tsunamis – is between US$250 billion and US$300 billion annually.”

Key Details of the Report

• Asia experienced the largest share of disaster impacts including 332,000 deaths and 3.7 billion people affected. The death toll included 138,000 deaths caused by Cyclone NARGIS (Myanmar, 2008).

• An average of 335 weather-related disasters were recorded per year between 2005 and 2014, an increase of 14% from 1995-2004, and almost twice the level recorded during 1985-1995.

• Some  87 million homes were damaged or destroyed over the survey period (CRED’s Emergency Events Data Base, or EM-DAT).

• Floods, affecting 2.3 billion people and killing 157,000 souls accounted for 47% of all weather-related disasters. Storms were the deadliest type of weather-related disaster, accounting for 242,000 deaths or 40% of the global weather-related deaths, with 89% of these deaths occurring in lower-income countries.

• Heatwaves accounted for 148,000 of the 164,000 lives lost due to extreme temperatures. 92% of heatwave deaths occurred in high-income countries, with Europe accounting for 90%.

• Drought affected Africa most, with 136 events recorded, including 77 droughts in East Africa alone.

Release Date: 23 Nov 2015

Source: United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR)

Download the report

October Temperature Breaks Global Record

October 2015 warmest October on 136-year record globally; year to date also record warm —NOAA

Global October temperature was the highest for the month in the 136-year period of record. The combined average temperature over global land and sea surfaces was 0.98°C (1.76°F) above the 20^th century average of 14.0°C (57.1°F), according to the State of Climate report issued by NOAA.

• October was the sixth consecutive month a monthly global temperature record has been broken and was also the greatest departure from average for any month in the 1,630 months of recordkeeping.

• The October average temperature across global land surfaces was 1.33°C (2.39°F) above the 20^th century average, the highest for October on record. This surpasses the previous record set in October 2011 by 0.17°C (0.31°F).

• October global sea surface temperature was 0.85°C (1.53°F) above the 20^th century average of 15.9°C (60.6°F), the highest departure for October on record. This surpasses the previous record set in 2014 by 0.15°C (0.27°F).

October 2015 Blended Land and Sea Surface Temperature Percentiles

January–October 2015 Blended Land and Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in degrees Celsius

Record Temperatures (Year to Date)

The first 10 months of 2015 comprised the warmest such period on record across the world’s land and ocean surfaces, at 0.86°C (1.55°F) above the 20^th century average, surpassing the previous record of 2014 by 0.12°C (0.22°F). This margin is larger than the uncertainty associated with the dataset. To date, eight months this year have been record warm for their respective months. January was the second warmest January on record and April third warmest.

The average global sea surface temperature of +0.71°C (+1.28°F) was the highest for January–October in the 136-year period of record, surpassing the previous record of 2014 by 0.08°C (0.14°F). This margin is larger than the uncertainty associated with the dataset. The average land surface temperature departure from average of +1.28°C (+2.30°F) was also the highest on record for October, surpassing the previous record of 2007 by 0.17°C (0.31°F).

Source: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate: Global Analysis for October 2015, published online November 2015, retrieved on November 19, 2015 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201510.

 

Gulf of Maine Cod Fishery Collapse Assisted by Warming Waters

‘Slow adaptation in the face of rapid warming leads to collapse of the Gulf of Maine cod fishery’

Vital to New England’s fisheries, Atlantic cod is a key species in the Gulf of Maine ecosystem, say the authors of a new report released by the National Science Foundation (NSF).

Researchers used sea surface temperature data to establish temperature trends in the Gulf of Maine since 1982 and over the last decade (2004-2013) and found the Gulf of Maine had experienced unprecedented decadal warming.

The recent 10 year warming trend is remarkable, even for a highly-variable part of the ocean like the northwest Atlantic. Over this period, substantial warming also occurred off of western Australia, in the western Pacific, and in the Barents Sea; and cooling was observed in the eastern Pacific and Bering Sea. The global ocean has a total area of 3.6 x 10⁸ km², yet only 3.1 x 10⁵ km² of the global ocean had warming rates greater than that in the Gulf of Maine over this time period. Thus, the Gulf of Maine has warmed faster than 99.9% of the global ocean between 2004 and 2013. Using sea surface temperatures from 1900-2013, the likelihood of any 2° by 2° segment of the ocean exceeding this 10-year warming rate is less than 0.3%. Based on this analysis, the Gulf of Maine experienced decadal warming that few marine ecosystems have encountered. 

The cod stocks today are on the verge of collapse estimated at only 4% of sustainable yield.

The most recent assessment found that SSB in this stock is now less than 3,000 mt, only 4% of the spawning stock biomass that gives the maximum sustainable yield (SSB_msy).

The report is posted at http://www.sciencemag.org/content/early/2015/10/28/science.aac9819.full

Australia Hammers a Fat Nail in Climate’s Coffin

Australia approves massive Carmichael coal mine, one of the world’s largest

Australia’s government has given mining giant Adani re-approval for the extraction and export of massive amounts of coal from the Carmichael Coal Mine.

In a showcase ruling, a court had temporarily blocked the project due to environmental concerns in August.

The Adani Mining in Queensland has been awarded the project, which is said to be worth A$16 billion (USD12 bn), to dig up and export about 60 million metric tons of coal a year, mostly to India.

Meanwhile, the Australian Conservation Foundation (ACF) has cited, “scientific evidence that shows the mine would destroy 10,000 hectares of habitat for endangered species, including the largest known population of the southern black-throated finch.”

“To approve a massive coal mine that would make species extinct, deplete 297 billion litres of precious groundwater and produce 128.4 million tonnes of CO2 a year is grossly irresponsible,” said ACF President Geoff Cousins.

“At a time when the world is desperately seeking cleaner energy options this huge new coal mine will make the effort to combat climate change all the more difficult.”

Most Australians oppose the project. They “do not want Adani to dig a massive coal mine and export the coal across the Great Barrier Reef,” said Cousins.

“We will use all appropriate means to stop this mine,” he added.

The mine is located in the Galilee Basin, Queensland, about 400km west of the Great Barrier Reef.

Cooking the Climate Wrecking the Reef: The global impact of coal exports from
Australia’s Galilee Basin

“Advanced plans are in place to build nine mega mines in one region of Queensland, Australia. Located in the Galilee Basin, five of these projects would each be larger than any coal mine currently operating in the country. If these go ahead, they could produce more coal than Australia currently exports. If the Galilee Basin were a country, the carbon dioxide produced from using this coal would make it the seventh dirtiest fossil fuel burner on the planet. The Galilee Basin coal boom is not just one of the greatest ever environmental threats to Australia, its climate implications are global,” said Greenpeace Australia Pacific.

How piggishness destroyed your world

Growing Wealth Inequality a Major Driver of Global Collapse

[Less than] one percent of the world population owns [more than] half of global wealth, according to the latest edition of the Global Wealth Report published by Credit Suisse.

Their estimates suggest the richest 10% of adult population own 88% of all wealth, with the top 1% accounting for half of all global assets, while the lower half of the world population collectively own less than 1% of the wealth.

Household Wealth, 2015
World: 250,145 (USD bn)
North America: 92,806
Europe: 75,059
Asia-Pacific: 45,958
China: 22,817
Latin America: 7,461
India: 3,447
Africa: 2,596
Source: James Davies, Rodrigo Lluberas and Anthony Shorrocks, Credit Suisse Global Wealth Databook 2015

Regional Wealth

North America and Europe together own 67% of the total wealth, but account for only 18% of the adult population.

Special Alliance

Some 20,247 of the world’s millionaires, or more than 60 percent of the total, are from the “Five Eyes,” the United States, the United Kingdom, New Zealand, Canada, and Australia.

Wealth and Super Wealthy 

Report estimates that worldwide there are

• 123,800 UHNW individuals (their ultra high net worth exceeds USD 50 million) including
  • 44,900 each worth at least USD 100 million, and
  • 4,500 with assets above USD 500 million.
• 33.6 million HNW (high net worth individuals with USD 1 mn to USD 50 m) of whom
  • 29.8 million fall within the USD 1–5 million
  • 2.5 million adults worth between USD 5 mn  and 10 mn, and
  • 1.3 million have assets in the USD 10–50 mn range

The 2015 Forbes Billionaires List

According to the Forbes Rich List 2015, there were 1,826 individuals each worth at least USD1 bn (up from 1,645 in March 2014), the highest number they’ve ever recorded, with an aggregate net worth of $7.05 trillion, up from $6.4 trillion a year ago.

80 richest people wealthier than the bottom half of world population

The 80 richest people in the world have doubled their wealth in nominal terms in the 6 year-period between 2009 and 2014, while the wealth of the bottom 50% has decreased over the same period.

These 80 individuals have more wealth (more than USD1.9 bn) than the combined wealth of the bottom 50% of the global population (more than 3.5 billion people).

Poverty

The United States has the second highest relative child poverty rates in the developed world, according to a 2013 UNICEF report.

• In 2013, about 50 million Americans were living in food insecure homes including 16.7 million children—an all time record.
• United Kingdom. More than one in four children in the UK are now living in poverty.
• Australia. One in Six of All Australian Children Live in Poverty
• New Zealand. One in four Kiwi children, or more than 265,000, are living in poverty.

The Greed

The greed to create more financial wealth is rapidly “asset-stripping” the planet. It’s directly proportional to the rate at which the global climate is being destabilized and the ecosystems destroyed.

Related Links

• Humans Defeated by No. 1 Mortal Enemy May 2, 2015
• 80 richest people wealthier than the bottom half of world population January 19, 2015
• Who made the wonderland so surreal? December 18, 2014
• Eat your heart out, Alice! December 17, 2014

Wounded Planet Can’t/ Won’t Take any Prisoners

Wildfires destroy dozens of buildings, force hundreds of evacuations in Wyoming, Idaho

Ferocious blazes, fueled by unseasonably warm temperatures and driven by strong winds, have destroyed dozens of homes and outbuilding in the US states of Wyoming and Idaho, forcing hundreds of residents to flee their homes.

Drought, unusually warm temperatures and strong winds continue to prolong the fire season in the US West.

One of the blazes that started near Wyoming’s second largest city of Casper Saturday night had consumed a bout 10,000 acres of grassland and buildings by late Monday, said a report.

At least 12 families have lost their homes, and hundreds of others have been forced to abandon their properties due to the Cole Creek Fire that started at a landfill in Evansville on Saturday.

Walker Fire burning near Idaho City

In Idaho, the Walker Fire had burned an estimated 3,400 acres, destroying several structures and forcing up to a hundreds people from their homes, according to local reports.

“The northwest flank of the fire saw the most significant growth today, growing toward Rattlesnake Creek and into Wild Horse Creek. It burned further into heavy timber, causing columns of smoke visible from miles away,” said Idaho Fire Info.

U.S. Wildfires: Year-to-date statistics

• Dates: 2015 (1/1/15 – 10/8/15)
• No. of Fires: 51,110
• Acres Burned: 11,245,536

Annual Average prior 10 years (2005-2014)

• No. of Fires: 60,506
• Acres Burned: 6,371,381

Marine Population Halved in 40 Years -Report

Humans catching fish faster than they can reproduce, while also destroying their nurseries —WWF

Population sizes of vertebrate species—mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, and fish—have declined by 52 percent over the last 40 years, says a new report.

These findings coincide with the growing decline of marine habitats, where the deforestation rate of mangroves exceeds even the loss of forests by 3-5 times…; and almost one-third of all seagrasses have been lost.

The study has highlighted the following factors in the population decline:

• Overfishing
• Decline of habitats/ destruction of nurseries
• Climate change
• Ocean acidification due to excessive absorption of carbon dioxide

“Human activity has severely damaged the ocean by catching fish faster than they can reproduce while also destroying their nurseries,” said head of WWF International.

The report authors have analyzed 5,829 populations of 1,200 species of marine creatures since 1970.

Populations of some commercial fish stocks including tuna, mackerel and bonito, have declined by  almost three-quarters (74%).

“An index for Scrombidae, based on data from 58 populations of 17 species, shows a decline of 74 per cent between 1970 and 2010. While the most rapid decline is between 1976 and 1990, there is currently no sign of overall recovery at a global level,” said the report.

Some deep-sea fish populations in the North Atlantic have also declined by 72 percent over the last 40 years.

Record Warm June, First Half of 2015

Record-breaking temps. over global land & oceans in June, 1st half of 2015, past 12 months

First half of 2015 was record warm for the globe, while June 2015 was warmest June on record, with global land areas and oceans each breaking previous records, according to The State of the Climate Report issued by NCDC/NOAA.

The following are some of the key highlights from the report:

Global highlights: Year-to-date (January–June 2015)

The globally averaged temperature across  land and ocean surfaces (SST) was  0.85°C (1.53°F) above the 20^th century average, which was the highest for the 6-month period in the 1880–2015 record, surpassing the 2010 record by 0.09°C (0.16°F).

NOTES:
The globally-averaged land and SST temperature for January to June 2010 was 14.2°C  (57.5°F), or 0.68°C (1.22°F) above the 20th century average.
The 20^th century average land surface and SST temperature for January to June period, as quoted in 2014, was of 13.5°C (56.3°F)

The globally-averaged land surface temperature was 1.40°C (2.52°F) above the 20^th century average, which was the highest for January–June in 136-year record, surpassing the 2007 record by 0.13°C  (0.23°F).

The globally-averaged SST was 0.65°C  (1.17°F) above the 20^th century average, which was the highest for the 6-month period in the 1880–2015 record, surpassing the 2010 record by 0.07°F (0.04°C).

Global highlights: June 2015

The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for June 2015 was the highest for June in the 136-year period of record, at 0.88°C (1.58°F) above the 20^th century average of 15.5°C (59.9°F), surpassing the previous record set just one year ago by 0.12°C (0.22°F). This was also the fourth highest monthly departure from average for any month on record. The two highest monthly departures from average occurred earlier this year in February and March, both at 0.90°C (1.62°F) above the 20^th century average for their respective months, while January 2007 had the third highest, at 0.89°C (1.60°F) above its monthly average.

The average global temperature across land surfaces was 1.26°C (2.27°F) above the 20^th century average of 13.3°C (55.9°F), the highest June temperature on record, surpassing the 2012 record by 0.06°C (0.11°F).

The global sea surface temperature for June was 0.74°C (1.33°F) above the 20^th century average of 16.4°C (61.5°F), the highest for June on record, surpassing the 2014 record by 0.06°C (0.11°F). [This also tied with September 2014 as the highest monthly departure from average for any month for the globally-averaged sea surface temperature. Nine of the ten highest monthly departures from average have occurred since May 2014.]

June 2015 also marks the fourth month this year that has broken its monthly temperature record, along with February, March, and May. The other months of 2015 were not far behind: January was second warmest for its respective month and April was third warmest. These six warm months combined with the previous six months (four of which were also record warm) to make the period July 2014–June 2015 the warmest 12-month period in the 136-year period of record, surpassing the previous record set just last month (June 2014–May 2015). 

Rank 1 = Warmest Period of Record: 1880–2015	12-month Period	Anomaly °C	Anomaly °F
1	July 2014–June 2015	0.83	1.49
2	June 2014–May 2015	0.82	1.48
3	May 2014–April 2015	0.81	1.46
4	April 2014–March 2015	0.80	1.44
5	March 2014–February 2015	0.79	1.42
6 (tie)	January–December 2014	0.78	1.40
6 (tie)	February 2014–January 2015	0.78	1.40
8	December 2013–November 2014	0.77	1.39
9	November 2013–October 2014	0.74	1.33
10 (tie*)	October 2013–September 2014	0.73	1.31

*ties with four other 12-month periods.  NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate: Global Analysis for June 2015, published online July 2015, retrieved on July 22, 2015 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201506.

Related Links

• 2014 Was Warmest Year on Record July 20, 2015
• Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters – 2014 Update June 19, 2015
• Earth’s Fever Continues: Warmest May on Record June 19, 2015
• January–April Global Temperature Highest Ever Recorded  May 20, 2015
• Warmest Ever: March and Q1, 2015 April 18, 2015
• December–February Warmest on Record March 21, 2015

2014 Was Warmest Year on Record

Climate markers continued to show global warming trend: NOAA

The most critical indicators of Earth’s changing climate continued to reflect warming trends in 2014, with several markers including rising land and ocean temperature, sea levels and greenhouse gases setting new records.

A new report compiled by NOAA’s Center for Weather and Climate at the National Centers for Environmental Information is said to  provide a detailed update on global climate indicators, notable weather events, and other data collected by environmental monitoring stations and instruments located on land, water, ice, and in space, according to a press release.

The report is based on contributions from 413 scientists from 58 countries.

“This report represents data from around the globe, from hundreds of scientists and gives us a picture of what happened in 2014. The variety of indicators shows us how our climate is changing, not just in temperature but from the depths of the oceans to the outer atmosphere,” said the Director for National Centers for Environmental Information.

Key highlights from the report include:

• Greenhouse gases continued to climb: Major greenhouse gas concentrations, including carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, continued to rise during 2014, once again reaching historic high values. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by 1.9 ppm in 2014, reaching a global average of 397.2 ppm for the year. This compares with a global average of 354.0 in 1990 when this report was first published just 25 years ago.

• Record temperatures observed near the Earth’s surface: Four independent global datasets showed that 2014 was the warmest year on record. The warmth was widespread across land areas. Europe experienced its warmest year on record, with more than 20 countries exceeding their previous records.  Mexico had its warmest year on record. Eastern North America was the only major region to experience below-average annual temperatures.

• Sea surface temperatures were record high: The globally averaged sea surface temperature was the highest on record. The warmth was particularly notable in the North Pacific Ocean,

• Global upper ocean heat content was record high: Globally, upper ocean heat content reached a record high for the year, reflecting the continuing accumulation of thermal energy in the upper layer of the oceans. Oceans absorb over 90 percent of Earth’s excess heat from greenhouse gas forcing.

• Global sea level was record high: Global average sea level rose to a record high in 2014. This keeps pace with the 3.2 ± 0.4 mm per year trend in sea level growth observed over the past two decades.

• The Arctic continued to warm; sea ice extent remained low: The Arctic experienced its fourth warmest year since records began in the early 20th century. Arctic snow melt occurred 20–30 days earlier than the 1998–2010 average. On the North Slope of Alaska, record high temperatures at 20-meter depth were measured at four of five permafrost observatories. The Arctic minimum sea ice extent reached 1.94 million square miles [5 million km²] on September 17, the sixth lowest since satellite observations began in 1979. The eight lowest minimum sea ice extents during this period have occurred in the last eight years..

Full report is posted at   http://www2.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/bulletin-of-the-american-meteorological-society-bams/state-of-the-climate/state-of-climate-in-2014/

Major Heatwave Plagues Europe

Temperatures exceed 40°C in parts of Europe

Heat warnings and alerts are in effect throughout  Spain and Portugal after temperatures soared to as high as 44ºC (111ºF).

The hot weather has also impacted Belgium, France, Italy and the Netherlands, while UK had its hottest day in nearly a decade.

• England had its hottest July day on record, with temperatures reaching 36.7ºC (98ºF).
• Paris saw temperatures of up to 40ºC.
• Red Alert was issued for the southern city of Cordoba in Spain.

Heatwaves across Europe

In 2003, a heatwave resulted in excess mortality, causing  70,000 more deaths than usual across Europe, including up to 20,000 in France.

In 2010, the daytime temperatures in Moscow climbed over 38ºC (100°F) for the first time since record-keeping began in 1879. A total of about 56,000 more deaths were reported nationwide during July and August 2010, compared with the same period previous year.

U.S. High Temperature for Tuesday, June 30, 2015

In the US high temperature of 52ºC (125ºF) was registered at Death Valley (CA), while the lowest temperature for Wednesday, July 1, 2015 was 0.6ºC (33ºF) at Tomahawk, WI