BRUCE Becomes a Super Cyclonic Storm

EXTREME CLIMATIC EVENT

BRUCE is now a Super Cyclonic Storm with 0.8 certainty

FIRE-EARTH Models show BRUCE has strengthened to a Super Cyclonic Storm with 80 percent certainty, packing winds of over 255 km/h at about 04:00UTC on December 21, 2013.

FIRE-EARTH Estimates

Position: Near 15.0ºS, 84.3ºE
Maximum Sustained Winds:  255+ km/h
Maximum Wind Gust: 320 km/h
Significant Wave Height:  15m
Movement: WSW (250 degrees) at 25km/h

[Note: FIRE-EARTH Models input data from various sources including ESA, NOAA, JTWC and others.]

Super Cyclonic Storm BRUCE. VIS/SWIR [FIRE-EARTH Enhancement] Satellite image – recorded at 04:30UTC on December 21, 2013. Original Image Sourced from: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC.

Point of No Return

In 2004¹,  our team forecast an 80-90 percent increase in the total power dissipated annually by tropical cyclones  in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans by 2015.

Storms will continue to get stronger (develop greater average intensities) and survive at high intensity for longer (take more time to dissipate peak energy) resulting in substantial increases in storm-related losses in the near future.

[1. First draft posted by MSRB on Internet on February 26, 2005]

Related Links

• BRUCE could Intensify to a Super Cyclonic Storm December 20, 2013
• Tropical Cyclones AMARA and BRUCE December 19, 2013

BRUCE could Intensify to a Super Cyclonic Storm

Cyclone BRUCE could strengthen to a Super Cyclonic Storm – probability: 0.23

FIRE-EARTH models show Cyclone BRUCE could potentially intensify to a Super Cyclonic Storm packing sustained winds of about 255 km/h with probability of 23 percent.

Approximate location of Cyclone BRUCE as of 07:00UTC on December 20, 2013 marked on CIMMS SST map.

FIRE-EARTH Estimates – at 11:00UTC on December 20, 2013

• Cyclone AMARA (TC 03S) was located near 18.5ºS, 64.9ºE packing winds of about 215Km/hr.
• Cyclone BRUCE (TC 04S) was located near 13.8ºS, 87.7ºE with sustained winds of about 230Km/hr.

Cyclones AMARA (TC 03S) and BRUCE (TC 04S). IS/SWIR [FIRE-EARTH Enhancement] Satellite image – recorded at 09:30UTC on December 20, 2013. Original Image Source: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC.

Related Links

• Tropical Cyclones AMARA and BRUCE December 19, 2013

Tropical Cyclones AMARA and BRUCE

Two Tropical Cyclones Loitering in the Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone AMARA (TC 03S)

Time: 09:00UTC on December 19, 2013
Position: Near 17.4ºS, 67.9ºE
Movement Past Six Hours:  WSW (255 degrees) at 17km/h
Max Sustained Winds: 195 km/h
Gusts: 240+ km/h
Location: Approximately 1,370km NE of La Reunion
Significant Wave Height: 10m
Source: JTWC

Cyclones AMARA (TC 03S) and BRUCE (TC 04S) – WV Satellite Image (FIRE-EARTH Enhancement) – timed at 13:30UTC on December 19, 2013. Initial image sourced from CIMSS.

Tropical Cyclone BRUCE  (TC 04S)

Time:09:00UTC on December 19, 2013
Position: Near 12.3ºS, 91.6ºE.
Movement Past Six Hours: WSW (250 degrees) at 15km/h
Max Sustained Winds: 140 km/h
Gusts: 170 km/h
Location: Approximately 520km west Of Cocos Island
Significant Wave Height: 7m
Source: JTWC