Pressed for specific timelines in climate change, presumably due to the pressure exerted by the unparalleled FIRE-EARTH forecasts, a group of “stone-scientists” have come up with datelines of their own projecting “timing of climate departure from recent variability.”
RE: Climate shift to a “new normal”
In a yet another justifying-our-paychecks-n-grants study, yet another group of “stone-scientists” have predicted that:
- Temperatures in an average year would be hotter by 2047 (give or take 14 years) than those in the warmest year in the 1860-2005 time period if the greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise.
- The tropics would be affected first, including an early shift for Manokwari in Indonesia (2020), and Kingston, Jamaica (2023).
- Up to 5 billion people would be living in regions outside the limits of historical variability.
The first part of the report’s abstract published by [who else but] Buy/Rent NOW nature.come reads:
The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability
Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over which climates shift beyond historical analogues. Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical period, this index has a global mean of 2069 (±18 years s.d.) for near-surface air temperature under an emissions stabilization scenario and 2047 (±14 years s.d.) under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario. Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and among low-income countries…
The reality: Critical Overload Threatens Planetary Life Support Systems
Diagram shows the exponential growth of Human Impact on Nature (HION) between 1960 and July 2013. Source: FIRE-EARTH Real-Time Earth Models. Copyright: FIRE-EARTH Blog Authors.
The Thing They Can See But Can’t Understand
So what’s the biggest false assumption, misunderstanding or otherwise abject failure to fathom the facts that the “stone-scientists” have made and continue to make?
They treat Earth like a pile of “unrelated,” “disinterested” [dead] rocks that has no impact in what’s happening on and around it. They see the planet as a film studio within which one or more of their scenarios would be bound to play out.
They can’t see Earth and its natural defense mechanisms as the major part of interactive forces in the climate change equation, and life.
They can “see” Mars and all the other “dead” planets that are out there to see, but evidently fail to understand the contrast between life and “non-life.”
Only a living planet can support life, and to continue doing so, Earth, wounded by wanton human impact, must go on fighting to stay alive.
Related Links
- Critical Overload Threatens Planetary Life Support Systems July 6, 2013
- RAPID DECLINE IN PROGRESS! July 4, 2012
Fire Earth 