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Posts Tagged ‘Cuba’

Extreme Rain Event Batters Western Cuba

Posted by feww on December 1, 2013

26-Hour rainstorm lashes Cuba

Extreme rain event triggers deluge causing multiple collapses in dwellings in Havana, Cuba, killing at least two people.

Up to 7.8 inches (200 millimeters) fell over Havana overnight,  said Cuba’s Meteorological Institute.

“The rain arrived early Friday and fell near constantly throughout the day. Traffic snarled and some cars were stranded, as intersections flooded and streets turned into rushing rivers,” said a report.

About 40 percent of the capital remains submerged, as flooding inundates coastal areas in western Cuba and the central region.

Posted in Climate Change, Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2013, significant events | Tagged: , , , , | 6 Comments »

Suspected Meteorite Hits Central Cuba

Posted by feww on February 16, 2013

Large object falls from the sky over Cuba turning into a fireball “bigger than the sun”

Residents in the central Cuban province of Cienfuegos say they saw a large, bright object the size of a bus in the sky on Friday at about 01:00 GMT. 

The object turned into a fireball “bigger than the sun” before exploding with a loud bang that shook some houses, according to eyewitnesses, said a report.

Related Links

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Hurricane PAULA

Posted by feww on October 13, 2010

Image of the Day:

PAULA Strengthens to a Cat. 2 Hurricane, Threatens Cuba


Hurricane PAULA IR Satellite Image (NHC Enhancement). Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.


Hurricane PAULA Projected Paths. Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.

Posted in Hurricane PAULA forecast path, Hurricane PAULA satellite image | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »

Hurricane Paloma strengthens near Grand Cayman

Posted by feww on November 8, 2008

Update: NOV 10, 2008 at 23:54 UTC

The remnant of Paloma which was earlier reduced to a tropical depression is now located between the north coast of Cuba and Andros Island.  Re-development of this system is not expected due to strong upper-level winds, NHC reported.

Update: NOV 09, 2008 at 06:00UTC

Paloma weakens as it moves slowly across east-central Cuba. At 06:00UTC the center of hurricane Paloma was near latitude 21.1 north, longitude 77.6 west or about 45 km southeast of Camaguey, Cuba.

Paloma is moving in northeasterly direction at about 7 km/hr. On the forecast track the center of Paloma will be near the Atlantic coast of east-central Cuba Sunday noon and be nearing the central
Bahamas by late Sunday/early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to about 155 Km/hr. Paloma is expected to weaken further during the next 48 hrs., even after it has cleared the coast of Cuba, NHC said.

Update: NOV 08, 2008 at 23:20UTC

At about 23:20 UTC hurricane Paloma likely made landfall near Santa Cruz Del Sur Cuba with maximum sustained winds of about 200 km/hr.

Update: NOV 08, 2008 at 12:00UTC

Maximum sustained winds have increased to about 225 Km/hr with higher gusts. Paloma is an extremely dangerous category Four A hurricane on FEWW Hurricane Scale [category four on the saffir-simpson scale.] NHC expects additional strengthening Saturday, followed by weakening later today through Sunday.

Dangerous Hurricane Paloma Threatens Grand Cayman, Cuba

Summary:

  • Paloma is a compact but very dangerous hurricane, currently a category Three A on FEWW Hurricane Scale [category three on the saffir-simpson scale] with sustained winds of about 185 km/hr. 
  • Paloma strengthens as it approaches the Cayman Islands on its way to storm-battered Cuba.
  • Schools, businesses and government offices have closed down in the Cayman Islands.
  • The national weather service in Cayman Islands forecast coastal waves rising to about 9 meters, causing dangerous storm surges in the coastal areas.
  • Paloma drenched Honduras with heavy rains on Thursday, compounding the impoverished country’s misery where recent storms have made as many as 100,000 people homeless.
  • The hurricane is expected to weaken as it reaches Cuba late Saturday, where two previous hurricanes, Gustav and Ike, caused about $5 billion in damages earlier this year.
  • Cuban officials began a major evacuation in the flood-prone areas on Friday moving at least 100,000 people to safe shelters.

paloma
Dangerous Hurricane Paloma – Aviation color enhancement satellite image – Still frame – Nov 8, 2008 at 01:15UTC – Image: NOAA/NESDIS

Major hurricane Paloma strengthens on the way to Grand Cayman

  • Source: NHC
  • Forecaster: Stewart
  • Date and Time: Nov 8, 2008 at 00:00 UTC
  • Location: At 00:00 UTC the center of hurricane Paloma was located near latitude 18.9 north, longitude 81.1 west or about 50 km south of the eastern end of Grand Cayman and about 440 km southwest of Camaguey, Cuba.
  • Category and Wind Speed: Maximum sustained winds have increased to near about 185 km/hr with higher gusts. Paloma is now a category Three A on FEWW Hurricane Scale [category three on the saffir-simpson scale.] Additional strengthening is possible through Saturday morning.  Afterward gradual weakening is expected to begin by late Saturday.

Hurricane PALOMA: Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities – 120 Hours

Image: NOAA

  • Direction: Paloma is moving toward the north-northeast at 9 km/hr. A gradual turn toward the northeast is forecast to occur overnight, and that general motion is expected for the next 48 hrs. On the forecast track, the center of Paloma will pass near Grand Cayman tonight, reaching near Cayman Brac Saturday morning, approaching the coast of central Cuba late Saturday.
  • Breadth: Paloma is a compact hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward about 35 km from the center, with tropical storm force winds extending outward to about 195 km.
  • Estimated minimum central pressure: 962mb (28.41 inches).
  • Storm surge flooding: 1.5 to 2.5 meters above normal tide levels accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves is expected near the center of paloma in the cayman islands.
  • Storm surge flooding of Storm surge flooding of 2.5 to 4 meters is expected near and to the east of where the center of Paloma makes landfall along the south coast of Cuba.
  • Rainfall: Paloma is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 25 cm (5 to 10 inches) over the Cayman Islands and central and eastern Cuba with isolated maximum totals of up to 40cm possible. Flash flood and mudslides are also possible, especially in higher terrain, which may be life-threatening over mountainous terrain.

Posted in Camaguey, Cayman Islands, hurricane Ike, Paloma path, Tropical storm | Tagged: , , , , | 2 Comments »

Human Enhanced World Disasters: A Quick Scan

Posted by feww on October 28, 2008

Honduras

Dozens of people have been killed among 270,000 Hondurans who have been affected by severe flooding and landslides caused by heavy rains, and at least 20,000 others have been forced to flee their homes for shelters. Half of those affected are children. UNICEF


17 of the 18 Departments [regions] of Honduras have experienced flooding. Photo Source: BBC. Image may be subject to copyright.

The Permanent Commission for Contingencies (COPECO) has reported

  • 33 deaths were reported a
  • 42,234 persons evacuated
  • 467 houses were destroyed
  • 10,000 homes are flooded or damaged.
  • About 100,000 hectares of crops have been lost.
  • Approximately 50% of the roads are damaged or destroyed.
  • Some 114 out of 298 municipalities are affected.
  • Public health is an area of concerns even though no outbreaks have been reported.
  • PAHO/WHO reports that 14 potable water systems are damaged.
  • Currently no severe food security issues, but the next production will be affected.

The main health concerns are gastrointestinal diseases and acute respiratory infections. Primary needs include portable latrines, water purification and household hygiene kits.

Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica and Belize

Up to 100,000 people have also been affected by the flooding in the neighboring Central American countries of Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica and Belize.

Haiti and Cuba

Two of the countries most impacted by the devastating 2008 hurricane season so far effects on are Haiti and Cuba. Widespread crop damage due to the numerous storms has aggravated the effects of the global food crisis, raising concerns about nutrition for children and pregnant/breastfeeding mothers. UNICEF

Kenya

As the drought worsens due to the generally poor long rains this year food security deteriorates in kenya. The worst affected areas include Turkana, Mandera, Samburu, Baringo, Marsabit, Wajir, Moyale and Garissa districts. Also affected are the districts of Isiolo, Laikipia, Ijara, Taita Taveta, Kitui, Mwingi, Makueni, Mbeere, Malindi, Kilifi, Kwale, and Tana River districts. Source: Office of the President

DR Congo

Tens of thousands of civilians are fleeing from the areas of Tongo, Kalengera, Kabiza and Rumangabo, in the North Kivu province (east Democratic Republic of Congo), where new fighting broke out Friday between the Congolese military and rebels of the renegade pro-Rwandan general Laurent Nkunda. Source: (MISNA)

Bangladesh

Several people have been killed, and dozens injured as tropical storm Rashmi struck southern Bangladesh damaging thousands of homes, uprooting trees and destroying vast areas of croplands. Further details of certain damage to coastal areas are not yet available.

Cyclone Sidr destroyed the coastal areas last November, killing up to 3,500 and displacing about two million people. (Reuters)

Pakistan

More than 15 per cent of the children, living in the camps set up by the government for the internally displaced persons (IDPs) of Bajaur tribal region, are suffering from malnutrition. (source: DG Newspapers)

Meanwhile, a strong magnitude 6.4 earthquake centered about 60 km (35 miles) NNE of Quetta, Pakistan, 640 km (400 miles) WSW of the capital, Islamabad, struck at 04:09:58 am local time, on October 29, 2008, killing at least 135 people, injuring hundreds more, making about 15,000 homeless.

PAKISTAN-QUAKE/
Earthquake victims dig through rubble after an earthquake in Ziarat, Baluchistan province, in this video grab taken October 29, 2008. Photo: REUTERS/Express TV via Reuters TV (PAKISTAN). NO SALES. NO ARCHIVES. PAKISTAN OUT. NO COMMERCIAL OR EDITORIAL SALES IN PAKISTAN. Image may be subject to copyright.

Posted in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, DR Congo, TS Rashmi, Ziarat earthquake | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Hurricane Ike Update 9/10

Posted by feww on September 10, 2008

Ike Update 9/12: Who Rubbed the Oil Lamp?

Ike Loves Open Waters!

Ike has strengthened to a Category 2A on FEWW Hurricane Scale, and is expected to become a major hurricane (category 3A or above with winds of at least 178km/hr) before making landfall in the northern Gulf of Mexico (Southern Texas).

FEWW Comment: Ike left behind up to 200 people dead in Haiti and Cuba (the death toll could still rise) as it churned through the Caribbeans and is now bringing much wind and rain to the US.

Having previously strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane, Ike struck eastern Cuba as a category 3 hurricane, and there’s a significant probability that it might strengthen again to a category 3 hurricane, possibly stronger, as it moves over the warm waters of Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Ike has shown a remarkable ability to self organize since almost immediately after birth. The hurricane previously strengthened steadily, but rapidly, as it moved west on the open waters of the Atlantic ocean. Ike loves open waters and with its nascent ability to strengthen rapidly he could prove to be the strongest and most dangerous hurricane of the season to date; however, it’s still too early to forecast with high certainty the hurricane’s wind forces at landfall.


Ike on his way out of Cuba. GOES East Unenhanced Image Frozen for the purpose of comparison. Date and Time: Sept 11, 2008 at 00:15UTC – Credit: NOAA/NHC/NWS


GOES East Floater (Updated Image) Unenhanced – IR CH 4 – Date and Time: Updated  (see foot of image). Credit: NOAA/NHC/NWS

IKE CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF

  • Source: NHC
  • Forecaster: Knabb/Berg
  • Date and Time: Sept 10, 2008 at 00:00UTC
  • Hurricane Watch Area: From Cameron westward to port Mansfield, Texas.  Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Friday.
  • Tropical Storm Warning Area: From the mouth of the Mississippi River westward to east of Cameron Louisiana.  AND from west of Key West to the Dry Tortugas.
  • Location: At 00:00UTC the center of hurricane Ike was located near latitude 24.7 north, longitude 86.3 west or about 1,125 km east of Brownsville Texas and about 555 km south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
  • Category and Wind Speed: At 160 km/hr, with higher
    Gusts, Ike is a Category 2A hurricane on the FEWW Hurricane Scale.  Ike is expected to become a major hurricane by Thursday.
  • Direction: Ike is moving toward the northwest near 13 km/hr.  A turn back toward the west-northwestward is expected tonight or early on Thursday and a general west-northwestward motion over the central and western Gulf of Mexico is expected on Thursday and Friday.
  • Breadth: Ike is a large tropical cyclone.  Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 185 km from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 335 km. 
  • Estimated minimum central pressure: 947 mb (27.96 inches).
  • Storm surge flooding: Coastal storm surge flooding along the coasts of Cuba and in the Florida Keys should continue to subside tonight.  coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels, along with large and dangerous waves, can be expected within the tropical storm warning area.  Above normal tides of 2 to 4 feet are expected elsewhere along much of the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so, but will be increasing along the western gulf coast as Ike approaches.
  • Rainfall: Ike is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 15 to 30 centimeters (cm) over western Cuba, with isolated maximum amounts of up to
    50cm possible.  These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over mountainous terrain.  Rainfall amounts of 2 to 5cm are possible over extreme southern Louisiana and over the extreme northern Yucatan Peninsula.

Ike’s Forecast Path


Latest
NCEP/Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) Forecast Positions. Credit: CIMSS – Space Science and Engineering CenterUniversity of Wisconsin- Madison

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone


Credit: NOAA/NHC/NWS

Posted in Climate Change, energy, environment, food, Global Warming, health, politics, Tourism, Travel | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Hurricane Ike Update 9/9

Posted by feww on September 10, 2008

Ike Update 9/12: Who Rubbed the Oil Lamp?

2009: A New Climate

What if each time a storm struck your area it turned out to be a major hurricane?

Based on MSRB/CASF dynamic energy models and FEWW climate model there’s a high probability that:

1. The duration of Atlantic Hurricane season may be longer in 2009. It could start earlier than June 1, and end later than November 30. The FEWW model forecasts an 11-18 day increase in the season.

2. The storms could get stronger throughout the season. Our model indicates average increases in the maximum wind speeds of tropical storms as follows

  • Category 5 hurricanes [Saffir-Simpson scale] : 16 to 19 percent increase
  • Category 4 hurricanes : 14 to 17 percent
  • Category 3 hurricanes : 8 to 11 percent
  • Category 2 hurricanes : 4 to 6 percent
  • Category 1 hurricanes : 2 to 4 percent

Now, back to Ike

Latest Headlines:

  • More than 1 million are evacuated but there are four deaths as 20 inches of rain and 100-mph winds pound Cuba. Reports mount of earlier deaths and destruction in Haiti. Texas could be next. (LA Times)
  • Oil and natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico remained at a trickle on Tuesday as Hurricane Ike moved toward the region, triggering the second storm-related wave of offshore platform evacuations and production shutdowns in less than two weeks. (Reuters).
  • Some two million Cubans had been driven from their homes by the storm’s winds topping 130 km/h (80 mph) more than 24 hours after it first made landfall on Sunday. (AFP)
  • Ike earlier caused 66 deaths in Haiti and reportedly damaged 80% of the homes in the Turks and Caicos Islands. (BBC)


Latest
NCEP/Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) Forecast Positions. Credit: CIMSS – Space Science and Engineering CenterUniversity of Wisconsin- Madison:

CENTER OF IKE APPROACHING WESTERN CUBA

  • Source: NHC
  • Forecaster: Franklin
  • Date and Time: Sept 9, 2008 at 12:00UTC
  • Location: At 12:00UTC the center of hurricane Ike was located near latitude 22.4 north, longitude 82.4 west, or about 65 Km south of Havana, Cuba.
  • Category and Wind Speed: At 130 km/hr, Ike is a Category one hurricane  on FEWW Hurricane Scale.  Some strengthening may occur this morning before Ike moves over Western Cuba.  Additional strengthening is forecast to occur once Ike reaches the Gulf of Mexico.
  • Direction: Ike is moving toward the west-northwest at 20 km/hr and  is expected to continue in that direction in the next 48 hrs.  The center of Ike should reach the south coast of western Cuba in the next few hours, and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico by this evening.
  • Breadth: Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 355 km from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 km. 
  • Estimated minimum central pressure: 965mb (28.50 inches).
  • Storm surge flooding: Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels, along with large and dangerous battering waves, can be expected in areas of onshore winds east of Ike along the southern coast of  Cuba.
  • Storm surge flooding of up to 90cm, along with Large and dangerous waves, are possible in the Florida Keys.
  • Large swells generated by Ike will continue to affect portions of the southeast United States coast during the next couple of days. These waves could generate dangerous and life-threatening rip
    currents.
  • Rainfall: Ike is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 25cm over Cuba, with isolated maximum amounts of up to 50cm possible. These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flash
    floods and mud slides over mountainous terrain. Rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10cm are possible over the Cayman Islands. Rainfall accumulations of 2.5 to 8cm are possible over the Florida Keys.
  • Isolated tornadoes and waterspouts are possible over the Florida Keys and extreme south Florida today.

Posted in Climate Change, energy, environment, food, Global Warming, health, politics, Tourism, Travel | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

Hurricane Ike Update 9/8

Posted by feww on September 8, 2008

Ike Update 9/12: Who Rubbed the Oil Lamp?

Ike makes landfall in Cuba

Weakened fortuitously to a Category 3 hurricane, Ike made landfall in Cuba in the province of Holguin near Punto de Sama on the north coast of eastern Cuba at about 01:45UTC, NHC said, with maximum winds of about 205 km/hr.


GOES-East 4km IR4 Floater 2 –  Date and Time: Latest Image, Updated – Credit: RAMSDIS-CIRA/RAMM –
Colorado State University


Hurricane Ike regional imagery, 2008.09.08 at 14:45UTC. Centerpoint Latitude: 21:15:44N Longitude: 78:26:22W. GOES-12 1 km visible imagery. [Data Elements: The center of Ike may be over open water south of Cuba soon. Ike may not weaken as much as previously shown.] Credit: NOAA/NESDIS/EVP

By 03:00 the center of hurricane Ike was located near latitude 21.1 north, longitude 75.8 west near Cabo Lucrecia about 220km east of Camaguey Cuba.

Ike is now moving in a westerly direction at 20 km/hr, and is expected to turn west to west-northwest in the next 24-48 hours.  On this track the center will move over eastern, central and western Cuba through Tuesday.

Since making landfall, Ike’ maximum sustained winds have marginally receded to about 195 km/hr, and is now a category 3B hurricane of FEWW Hurricane Scale.  Further weakening is likely as Ike moves over Cuba.

Ike’s Legacy in the Caribbeans [so far]

Turks and Caicos Islands (Population 22,500): T & C took the full brunt of Ike as a Category 4 hurricane with 215 km/hr winds. About 80 percent of the houses on Grand Turk (population 3,000 were destroyed or damaged, an official said.

The Dominican Republic: Up to 50,000 people abandoned their homes because of the powerful winds and rain.

Haiti: The downpour from Ike caused the La Quinte river to rise again flooding the city of Gonaives for the second time since Hannah struck. By Sunday evening Gonaives was “a devastated and isolated city,” its mayor reportedly said, “all of our bridges to the rest of the country have collapsed.”

For additional images see: Hurricane Ike Update 9/7

Ike On The North Coast Of Eastern Cuba

  • Source: NHC
  • Forecaster: Pasch
  • Date and Time: Sept 8, 2008 at 03:00UTC
  • Category and Wind Speed: About195 km/hr with higher gusts.  Ike is still a very dangerous  3B hurricane of FEWW Hurricane Scale. Some weakening is expected as Ike moves over Cuba.
  • Breadth: Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 95 km from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 220 km.
  • Estimated minimum central pressure: 945mb (27.91 inches).
  • Storm surge flooding: 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels, along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected within the warning area in areas of onshore winds.
  • Large swells generated by Ike will affect portions of the southeast United States coast during the next 48 hours.  These waves could generate dangerous and life-threatening rip currents.
  • Rainfall: Ike is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches over eastern and central Cuba, with isolated maximum amounts of up to 20 inches possible.  These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over mountainous terrain.
    • The southern Bahamas: Possible rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches from Ike.
    • Portions of Hispaniola: Additional amounts of 3 to 5 inches.
    • Turks and Caicos islands: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches.
    • Florida Keys: Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.

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Hurricane Ike Update 9/7

Posted by feww on September 7, 2008

Ike Update 9/12: Who Rubbed the Oil Lamp?

Ike: A Deadly Hurricane by any Other Name

2008 Year of the Rain, too?

GOES – Floater Image – UneEnhanced Infrared CH4 – Date and time:  Updated on Image – Credit NOAA/NESDIS/SSD

FEWW Comment:  Ike has re-restrengthened to a  Category 4A on the FEWW Hurricane Scale (Cat. 4 on Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale)  with extremely dangerous wind speeds of about 215km/hr. It’s outer bands have enveloped the Dominican Republic and the northeastern peripheries of Haiti, moving slowly to cover north [and rest] of the island, where 500 people have already died and up to a million others displaced from previous storms. More rain, flooding, deaths and devastation are to be expected.

Subject to current weather condition and sea temperatures in the Caribbeans and on its forecast path, hurricane Ike may strengthen to a Category 5 hurricane as it approaches/makes landfall in Cuba, striking ferociously at the heart of the tropical island, which is already reeling from the shock of the previous three storms (Fay, Gustav and Hannah) in as many weeks. It’s hoped that the resilient Cuban people would literally “weather the storm.”


Storm Centered Infrared Image. Click here for  JAVA Movie (color enhancement). credit CIMSS – Space Science and Engineering CenterUniversity of Wisconsin- Madison


GOES – Tropical Floater Imagery – Infrared CH 4 – Date and time:  Updated on Image – Credit NOAA/NESDIS/SSD


GOES EAST – North Atlantic Imagery – JSL2 enhancement – Date and time:  Updated on Image – Credit NOAA/NESDIS/SSD

Eye of Extremely Dangerous Hurricane Ike Passing Over the Turks Islands

  • Source: NHC
  • Forecaster: Avila
  • Date and Time:Sept 7, 2008 at 03:00UTC
  • Category and Wind Speed: About 215 km/hr with higher gusts.  Ike is an extremely dangerous category four Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale [Cat 4A on FEWW Hurricane Scale]. Some strengthening is
    Possible before Ike moves over eastern Cuba.
  • Location: The large eye of hurricane Ike was located near latitude 21.2 north, longitude 70.9 west, very close to the Turks and Caicos Islands.
  • Direction: Ike is moving toward the west-southwest near 24 km/hr and this motion is expected to continue Sunday with a gradual turn to the west late Sunday. On this track, the core of the hurricane Will begin to affect the southeastern Bahamas early Sunday.  Ike should then move near the central Bahamas and the northern coast of eastern Cuba Sunday night/early Monday.
  • Breadth: Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 75 km from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 220 km.
  • Estimated minimum central pressure: 947mb (27.96 inches).
  • Storm surge flooding: 13 to 18 feet above normal tide levels and large and dangerous battering waves can be expected in the warning areas.
  • Large swells generated by Ike will affect portions of the southeast United States coast during the next 48 hrs.  These waves could generate dangerous and life-threatening rip currents.
  • Rainfall: About 10 to 20 cm (4 to 8 inches) with isolated maximum amounts of 30 cm (12 inches) are expected over the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas. Hispaniola and eastern Cuba could see 15 to 30 cm (6 to 12 inches) of rain with isolated maximum amounts of up to 50cm (20 inches) possible.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over mountainous terrain.


These graphics show probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 34 kt…39 mph (tropical storm force). These wind speed probability graphics are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. Each graphic provides cumulative probabilities that wind speeds of at least 39 mph will occur during cumulative time periods at each specific point on the map. The cumulative periods begin at the start of the forecast period and extend through the entire 5-day forecast period at cumulative 12-hour intervals (i.e., 0-12 h, 0-24 h, 0-36 h, … , 0-120 h). An individual graphic is produced for each cumulative interval, and the capability to zoom and animate through the periods is provided. To assess the overall risk of experiencing winds of at least 39 mph at any location, the 120-h graphics are recommended. NOAA/NHC/NWS

Related “Year of the Expected Unknowns” Links:

::

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Hurricane Ike, TS Hannah, TS Josephine – Update 9-5

Posted by feww on September 5, 2008

Ike Update 9/12: Who Rubbed the Oil Lamp?

Tropical Storm Hannah

FEWW Comment: Big Hannah’s torrential rains have already submerged parts of Haiti in more than  two meters of floodwater, leaving about 140 people dead. A nightmare scenario in the US Atlantic coast could unfold, if Hannah were to move in slow motion over the U.S. east coast, as already predicted by NHC, without necessarily making landfall, repeating a similar performance to her Haiti debut.


Updated Tropical Atlantic Imagery – Aviation color enhancement – GOES East – Date and time as shown on image. Credit NOAA/SSD/NESDIS

TS Hannah: Coastal Watches/Warnings and 3-Day Track Forecast Cone


This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time. NOAA/NHC

TS Hannah

  • Source: NHC
  • Forecaster: Rhome
  • Date and Time: Sept 5, 2008 / 06:00UTC
  • Location: The center of tropical storm Hanna was located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 77.2 West or about 90 km north of Great Abaco Island and about 790 km south of Wilmington, North Carolina.
  • Direction: Hanna is moving toward the northwest. NHC expects a gradual turn to the north with an increase in forward speed later today. The center of Hanna will be near the southeast coast of the United States later Today. However, rains and winds associated with Hanna will reach the coast well in advance of the center.
  • Speed: About 30 km/hr.
  • Wind Speed: About 105 km/hr with higher gusts. It is still possible for Hanna to become a hurricane.
  • Breadth: Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 510 km (v. large) mainly to the north and east of the center.
  • Estimated minimum central pressure: 984mb (29.05 inches).
  • Additional Information: Hanna could produce rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches over the Northern Bahamas and the eastern portions of south and north Carolina, with maximum isolated amounts of 5 inches possible.  Rainfall totals of up to 3 inches are possible from the Georgia coast southward to the central Florida coast. Very heavy rainfall amounts are likely to spread rapidly northward into the mid Atlantic states and New England from Friday night into Saturday and may result in flooding.

Hurricane Ike

Hurricane Ike: Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone


NOAA/NHC

FEWW Comment: Ike, having strengthened to a very dangerous Category 4B on the FEWW Hurricane Scale just over 24 hours ago, is now slightly downgraded to a category 4A hurricane churning in a westerly direction. If Ike remains on its 5-day NHC-predicted path, and maintains its current strength as a major hurricane (Category 3A or above,) it would sweep over the northern edge of Haiti and the Island of Cuba causing additional destruction on a grand scale, compounding the misery caused by TS Fay, Hurricane Gustav and Hurricane Hannah during the last 19 days.

  • Source: NHC
  • Forecaster: Brown
  • Date and Time: Sept 5, 2008 at  03:00UTC
  • Category and Wind Speed: About 215 km/hr, with higher gusts. Ike is an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale [Category 4A on FEWW Hurricane Scale.] Some weakening is forecast during the next 24 to 48 hours.
  • Location: The center of hurricane Ike was located near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 59.5 West or about 760 km north-northeast of the Leeward Islands and about 1,215 km east-northeast of Grand Turk island.
  • Direction: Ike is moving in a westerly direction. A turn toward the west-southwest is expected on Friday, and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday.  On this track the hurricane will continue to move over the open waters of the west-central Atlantic during the next 48 hours.
  • Speed: About 22 km/hr.
  • Breadth: Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 55 km from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 km.
  • Estimated minimum central pressure: 945mb (27.91 inches).


TS Josephine

Coming soon …

Posted in Climate Change, energy, environment, food, Global Warming, politics, Tourism, Travel | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

Hungry Haitian Flood Victims Stranded on Rooftops

Posted by feww on September 5, 2008

“There is no food, no water, no clothes … I want to know what I’m supposed to do … we haven’t found anything to eat in two, three days. Nothing at all.” Pastor Arnaud Dumas

TS Hannah the third tropical storm to strike Haiti in three weeks has left the northern Haitian city of Gonaives submerged in two meters of water. According to AP’s latest report there are 137 confirmed deaths in Haiti.


Hurricane Hanna is seen southeast of Nassau. The system was drifting toward the west near 3 km/hr with maximum sustained winds of about 130km/hr. Dated 2008.09.02 at 08:45UTC – Credit NOAA/NESDIS/EVP

Haitian President Rene Preval declared the situation in his impoverished Caribbean nation a “catastrophe.”

Thousands of people including patients in a flooded hospital have moved to upper floor rooms, balconies and roofs, waiting for the floodwater to recede.

“There are a lot of people who have been on top of the roofs of their homes over 24 hours now … They have no water, no food and we can’t even help them.” The interior minister, Paul Antoine Bien-Aime, told Reuters news.

An aerial view of floods caused by Tropical Storm Hanna is seen in Gonaives September 3, 2008. REUTERS/Marco Dormino/Minustah/Handout

In Cuba more than 500 schools and 100,000 homes were affected. “There are severe damages to the electrical system. It’s practically on the floor,” said the vice- president, Carlos Lage. “In terms of buildings and homes, roofs are generally gone. The island is exposed to the sky.” Thousands of tons of tobacco leaves, coffee, grapefruit and other produce have been destroyed.


A Bolivian peacekeeper, left, stands on an area flooded by heavy rains from Tropical Storm Hanna next to residents in Savan Desole, Haiti, Wednesday, Sept. 3, 2008. The storm has spawned flooding in Haiti that left 10 people dead in Gonaives, along Haiti’s western coast, according to the country’s civil protection department.(AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos). Image may be subject to copyright.

Fidel Castro, Cuba’s ex-president likened the destruction to the nuclear attack on Hiroshima. “The photos and videos transmitted on national television reminded me of the desolation I saw when I visited Hiroshima.”


Hurricane Ike in a satellite image taken September 4, 2008. Hurricane Ike strengthened rapidly into an fiercely dangerous Category 4 hurricane in the open Atlantic on Wednesday.   REUTERS/NOAA/Handout

Meanwhile, hurricane Ike, a very dangerous category 4B hurricane with sustained winds of about 230 km/hr is revving up about 1,000 km northeast of Haiti. Ike is expected to turn west in the next 24 hours.

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TS Gustav Update 29-8

Posted by feww on August 29, 2008

Update 30-8: Gustav Now a Category Four Hurricane, as Forecast

Gustav is coming, and Big Hannah, too!

More on ‘Big Hannah’ later.

Gustav: The Early US Impact

  • Gustav could make landfall in the US anywhere from Texas to Florida by early next week.
  • New Orleans is planning a possible mandatory evacuation. [Hurricane Katrina struck the city August 28, 2005]
  • Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal has declared a state of emergency and activated the National Guard.

Gustav Death Toll as of 03:00 UTC – Aug 29, 2008

  • Haiti: 51 people died from storm-related incidents since Tuesday.
  • Dominican Republic: At least eight more deaths were reported after Gustav struck.


TS Gustav is seen moving over Jamaica [near bottom right corner] in this mildly out of focus satellite image. Meanwhile Fay, “born” August 15, is till raining on the U.S., now over the Mid-Atlantic section [top center.] In the bottom left a system may be forming (low/medium probability) over the Bay of Campeche.  Credit: NOAA/NASA GOES Project.


TS Hannah follows Gustav.
1. A large tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is producing limited shower activity about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. 2. A well-defined tropical wave is located along the west coast of Africa. This system is showing signs of organization, and some gradual  development is possible over the next couple of days as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. Image and caption: NOAA/NWS

Hurricane Highlights from NHC [TS Gustav Advisory No 17]

  • Hurricane warnings remain in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. [A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.]
  • A hurricane watch remains in effect for western Cuba, for the Provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, la Habana and Ciudad de la Habana.  [A hurricane watch means that hurricane Conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 36 hours.]
  • A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Cuban province of Granma.
  • A tropical storm watch remain in effect for the Cuban province of Matanzas.
  • At 3:00 am UTC the center of TS Gustav was located near latitude 17.8 north, longitude 77.3 west, about 55 km west-southwest of Kingston Jamaica and about 445 km east-southeast of Grand Cayman.
  • Gustav is moving toward the west at 11 km/hr.  A turn toward the west-northwest and northwest is forecast during the next 48 hours.  On this track, the center of Gustav will pass near or over western Jamaica in the next few hours, move near or over the Cayman Islands Friday, and approach western Cuba on Saturday.
  • Maximum sustained winds are near 110 km/hr (70 mph) with higher Gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Gustav is expected to become a Hurricane Friday.
  • Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 75 km from the center.
  • Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).
  • Coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels can be expected in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning Area.
  • Gustav is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, with isolated maximum amounts of up to 25 inches possible.  These rains will likely produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible over southern Cuba.  Rainfall will be diminishing over Haiti tonight, but anadditional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is still possible.  —Forecaster Beven

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Fay Heads North Toward SW Florida Coast

Posted by feww on August 19, 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. (NOAA)


TS Fay – Short Wave IR Image – GOES Floater Imagery – 30 minute updates – NOAA

Fay struck Cuba’s south coast with 80km winds and heavy rain. She was expected to drop as much 20cm (8 inches) of rain over the island, having left a deadly trail across the Caribbean.

National Weather Service Enhanced Radar Mosaic


Base Reflectivity – Southeast Sector – NOAA – NWS

About 10,000 people including tourists in western and central areas of Cuba have been evacuated, boats were pulled out of water, temporary shelters and food distribution centers were set up.

State of Florida have deployed 500 National Guards, and Florida Keys are being evacuated.

In Haiti a bus plunged into a swollen river, killing 50 people. Many of the dead were swept away like “driftwood,” said the Mayor of Bomont, Haiti. Others, including several children, drowned while trapped in the sunken vehicle.

Five others were killed in Haiti and the neighboring Dominican Republic in flood-related accidents.

A couple died in Kingston, Jamaica when their car was swept away by floodwater.

Shell Oil and Marathon Oil have reportedly pulled as many as 700 workers from offshore facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.

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Fay May Strengthen to Hurricane Force

Posted by feww on August 18, 2008

LATEST UPDATE: Fay Heads North Toward SW Florida Coast

Tropical Storm Fay Intermediate Advisory No. 9a
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl AL062008
800 pm EDT Sun Aug 17, 2008

Highlights:

  • Fay is moving slower. She has not strengthened yet.
  • A hurricane watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from south of Ocean Reef to Key West including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay and along the Florida mainland from Card Sound Bridge westward to Tarpon Springs.
  • A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 36 hours.
  • A hurricane watch remains in effect for Cuba from the provinces of La Habana and Ciudad de la Habana eastward to Sancti Spiritus.
  • A tropical storm warning is in effect for the provinces of Cuba from Camaguey westward.
  • A TS warning remains in effect for Cayman Brac and Little Cayman.
  • A TS warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys From Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay.
  • A TS warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

TS Fay Moving Over Cuba


Western Atlantic Infrared Image – Realtime Satellite Images From GOES – NOAA

  • A TS watch remains in effect for the southeast coast of Florida from Ocean Reef northward to Jupiter inlet and for lake Okeechobee. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area generally within 36 hours.
  • A TS watch remains in effect for Grand Cayman Island.
  • Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula the northwestern Bahamas and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Fay.
  • For storm information specific to your area including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
  • At 8:00 pm EDT 00:00 UTC the center of TS Fay was located near latitude 21.0 North, Longitude 80.3 west or about 200 miles (330 km) southeast of Havana Cuba and about 265 miles (430km) south-southeast of Key West, Florida.
  • Fay has been moving slowly and somewhat erratically toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/hr). A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight with a turn toward the north expected Monday or Monday night. On the forecast track, Fay is expected cross Western Cuba overnight tonight or Monday morning and move near the Florida Keys Monday or Monday night.

Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities.

  • Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/hr) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Fay could be approaching hurricane strength when it reaches western Cuba tonight or early Monday and when it approaches the Florida Keys Monday.
  • Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.
  • The minimum central pressure estimated is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
  • Storm tides of 2 to 4 feet above normal are possible along the south coast of Cuba in the tropical storm warning area in areas of onshore winds. Tides of 2 to 4 ft above normal are possible in the Florida Keys in the warning area.
  • Isolated tornadoes are possible late tonight and Monday over the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula.
  • Fay is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over much of Cuba with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible over Grand Cayman and over the central Bahamas. Heavy rain may
  • Begin to affect the Florida Keys and south Florida tonight and into Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible for the Florida Keys and south Florida.
  • Repeating the 8:00 pm EDT position: 21.0 N, 80.3 W.
  • Movement toward west-northwest near 10 mph.
  • Maximum sustained winds 50 mph. Minimum central pressure 1001 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11:00 pm EDT. — Forecaster Pasch/Roberts

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Tropical Storm Fay Forms

Posted by feww on August 15, 2008

Sixth Atlantic Storm of the Season

A low pressure area over the Mona Passage became a tropical storm as it moved into the Eastern Dominican Republic, NOAA reported.

Fay is expected to track westward in the direction of Florida and the Gulf of Mexico.

[Aug 17, 2008 Update: TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NO. 7A]


Tropical Storm Fay – Tropical Storm Floater Imagery (updated periodically) – Aviation color enhancement – NOAA

At 5 pm AST (21:00 UTC) the government of the Dominican Republic issued a tropical storm warning for the Dominican Republic for The entire north coast of the Dominican Republic and for the south coast east of San Pedro de Macoris. A tropical storm warning is Also in effect for the north coast of Haiti from Gonaives
Northward.

At 5 pm AST (21:00 UTC) The government of Cuba issued a tropical storm warning for the provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago De Cuba and Granma, as well as for the provinces of Holguin and Las Tunas.

A Tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area generally within 36 hours.

At 500 pm AST the center of tropical storm Fay was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 69.4 West or about 35 miles (55 km) east of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic and about 395 miles (635 km) east-southeast of Guantanamo Cuba.

Fay is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/hr). A general motion toward the west-northwest is expected during the next day. On the forecast track the center of Fay will cross Hispaniola tonight and Saturday and pass near or over eastern Cuba Saturday night and Sunday.

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone (NHC/NOAA)

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/hr) with higher gusts, mainly over water to the north and east of the center. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles (140 km) from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 MB (29.77 inches).

Tides of 1 to 2 feet above normal can be expected in the warning area in areas of onshore flow.

Fay is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 Inches over Hispaniola and eastern Cuba with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. – Forecaster Beven [Tropical Storm FAY Public Advisory #1]

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