TC ULUI – 2nd UPDATE – MAR 20

Was it Something We Said?

ULUI Intensifies to a Category 1 Hurricane on FEWW New Hurricane Scale,and Intensifying

UPDATE on March 20 at 06:30UTC

• Position: 19.7S, 151.7E
• Max Sustained Winds: 152 km/hr (~ 82 kt)
• Wind Gusts: 200 km/hr (~ 107 kt)
• Movement: WSW (240 degrees)
• Forward Speed: ~ 24 km/hr (13 kt)
• Location: About 515 km EAST (98.5degrees) of Townsville, Australia
• Maximum significant wave height: 9m (27 feet)
• Sources: JTWC, CIMSS and others.
• Comments: The cyclone’s deep convection has developed much further. Satellite images indicate that ULUI could develop an eye before it strikes the Australian coast.  Warm coastal waters are feeding ULUI and there’s little vertical wind shear to oppose the cyclone from further strengthening. ULUI could potentially intensify into a category 2A [90 percent probability],  a Cat 2B [64 percent probability] or even a Cat 3A [~ 50 percent probability] Hurrine force on FEWW New Hurricane Scale before making a landfall.

• Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has warned that up to 30cm of rain could fall in areas under the projected path of TC ULUI.

Cyclone ULUI IR Satellite image with GFS and CMC forecast tracks superimposed. The track marked in yellow is Fire-Earth Forecast. Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.

Tropical Cyclone ULUI – Visible [postcard]  image – MTSAT 1R – Dated March 20, 2010 at 05:00UTC.   Source: Digital Typhoon.  Click image to enlarge.

On the Ground …

Meanwhile, Australia’s Queensland prime minister (they have one for each state), Anna Bligh, has declared a disaster zone across the state’s central and northern coast a day ahead of cyclone ULUI arrival.

Bligh declared the Townsville, Burdekin, Whitsunday, Charters Towers, Mackay, Isaac, Rockhampton and Central Highlands as disaster areas, local reports said.

“This declaration is in anticipation that some properties may need to be evacuated in the coming hours as Tropical Cyclone Ului approaches and then crosses the North Queensland coast,” she said.

“The declaration gives Emergency Services agencies the power of mandatory evacuations if required.”

For additional images click on the following links:

• Visible
• Visible Loop
• IR
• IR Loop
• Colorized IR
• Colorized IR loop.
• Water Vapor
• Water vapor loop

How ULUI was born:

• Last 24 Hours : MPEG / WMV
• Last 120 Hours : MPEG / WMV
• Last 240 Hours : MPEG / WMV

ULUI History and Related Links:

• Tropical Cyclone ULUI – UPDATE Mar 20

• TC ULUI: Mid-air refueling
• Cyclone ULUI – UPDATE Mar 18
• TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 17

• Cyclone ULUI: Enough Fuel to Land in Australia
• Cyclones TOMAS and ULUI – UPDATE Mar 16
• Tropical Cyclone TOMAS
• Tropical Cyclone ULUI

• Cyclones TOMAS and ULUI – UPDATE Mar 15
• Cyclones ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 14
• TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 13
• Tropical Cyclones Now Come in Pairs
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Tropical Cyclone ULUI – UPDATE Mar 20

SEE LATEST UPDATE AT >> TC ULUI – MAR 20 — 2nd UPDATE

Cyclones in NH: More Character?

TC ULUI has further weakened to a tropical storm with sustained winds of about 105 km/hr

Residents on the east coast of Australia in locations between about 17ºS and 27ºS should already be experiencing moderate to heavy winds accompanied by rain.

Cyclone ULUI  (TC 20P) Details on March 20 at 00:01UTC

• Position: 19.3S 153.8E
• Max Sustained Winds:  105 km/hr (~ 55 kt)
• Wind Gusts: 130 km/hr (~ 70 kt)
• Movement:  SW (225 degrees)
• Forward Speed:  ~ 24 km/hr (13 kt)
• Location: About 900 ESE of Cairns
• Maximum significant wave height: 7m (22 feet)
• Sources: JTWC, CIMSS and others.
• Comments: The cyclone’s deep convection has developed slightly, though  partially. ULUI is expected to weaken further before reaching ashore in about a day or so, and dissipate within a day thereafter.
• Australia’s own Bureau of Meteorology has warned that up to 30cm of rain could fall in areas under  the projected path of TC ULUI.

Cyclone ULUI Vis/IR Satellite image with GFS forecast track superimposed. Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.

On the Ground …

Meanwhile, Australia’s Queensland prime minister (they have one for each state), Anna Bligh, has lost her nerve declaring a disaster zone across the state’s central and northern coast a day ahead of cyclone ULUI arrival.

Bligh declared the Townsville, Burdekin, Whitsunday, Charters Towers, Mackay, Isaac, Rockhampton and Central Highlands as disaster areas.

“This declaration is in anticipation that some properties may need to be evacuated in the coming hours as Tropical Cyclone Ului approaches and then crosses the North Queensland coast,” she said.

“The declaration gives Emergency Services agencies the power of mandatory evacuations (!) if required.”

Cyclone ULUI – 1km Visible Image. The center of ULUI appears as a slight depression near 19S, 154E on this image. Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.

Tropical Cyclone ULUI – Visible [postcard]  image – MTSAT 1R – Dated March 20, 2010 at 00:00UTC.   Source: Digital Typhoon.  Click image to enlarge.

For additional images click on the following links:

• Visible
• Visible Loop
• IR
• IR Loop
• Colorized IR
• Colorized IR loop.
• Water Vapor
• Water vapor loop

How ULUI was born:

• Last 24 Hours : MPEG / WMV
• Last 120 Hours : MPEG / WMV
• Last 240 Hours : MPEG / WMV

ULUI History and Related Links:

• TC ULUI: Mid-air refueling
• Cyclone ULUI – UPDATE Mar 18
• TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 17

• Cyclone ULUI: Enough Fuel to Land in Australia
• Cyclones TOMAS and ULUI – UPDATE Mar 16
• Tropical Cyclone TOMAS
• Tropical Cyclone ULUI

• Cyclones TOMAS and ULUI – UPDATE Mar 15
• Cyclones ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 14
• TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 13
• Tropical Cyclones Now Come in Pairs
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

TC ULUI: Mid-air refueling

Image of the Day:

ULUI left its heart above 15ºS

Cyclone ULUI – Visible/IR Image. Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.

Tropical Cyclone ULUI – Visible image – MTSAT 1R – Dated March 18, 2010 at 06:00UTC.   Source: Digital Typhoon.  Click image to enlarge.

How ULUI was born:

• Last 24 Hours : MPEG / WMV
• Last 120 Hours : MPEG / WMV
• Last 240 Hours : MPEG / WMV

For additional images click on the following links:

• Visible
• Visible Loop
• IR
• IR Loop
• Colorized IR
• Colorized IR loop.
• Water Vapor
• Water vapor loop

ULUI History and Related Links:

• TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 17

• Cyclone ULUI: Enough Fuel to Land in Australia
• Cyclones TOMAS and ULUI – UPDATE Mar 16
• Tropical Cyclone TOMAS
• Tropical Cyclone ULUI

• Cyclones TOMAS and ULUI – UPDATE Mar 15
• Cyclones ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 14
• TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 13
• Tropical Cyclones Now Come in Pairs
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Cyclones TOMAS and ULUI – UPDATE Mar 16

TOMAS a Cat 4A Storm on FEWW Scale

TOMAS Wobbled Toward Main Fiji Islands, Then Moved South

As the cyclone went past Vanua Levu, Fiji’s second largest Island, it wobbled toward the main islands; however, you couldn’t see what exactly happened because the high res satellite images were withdrawn from various sites.

Having checked the continuous loop images earlier, the moderators  noticed that up to 3 original frames in the MTSAT image loops appeared to be “gap fillers.”

Latest satellite image of TOMAS, as of posting:

Back in FIJI …

The Government of FIJI has just declared a State of Disaster for the Northern and Eastern divisions of Fiji.

The declaration was made by Fiji’s National Disaster Council due to “the serious situation that had resulted in Tropical Cyclone Tomas’ wake in the North.” Fiji Times reported.

Officials said “The same situation as the North is likely to be repeated in the Eastern Division.” The Eastern division is made up of the Lomaiviti and Lau groups of islands.
Fiji’s “Northern division” consists of Vanua Levu, Fiji’s second largest island, Taveuni and dozens of smaller islands including Cikobia, Fiji Times said.

More than 17,000 people fled their homes in Western division, the report said.

“The National Disaster Council has declared a state of disaster in the northern division and eastern division,” National Disaster Management Office operations officer Anthony Blake said.

The Council is particularly concerned about the islands of Cikobia and Qelelevu because they have not heard anything from them since the cyclone struck there about 36 hours  earlier.

At least 50 properties had been destroyed, as of posting, reports said. However, the extent of destruction and damage is bound to be much greater given the force of TOMAS and vulnerability of Fiji islands to storms.

“On Gau island to the east of Viti Levu, Lamiti village head teacher Solomone Rasiga told Fiji commercial radio the villagers sheltered overnight from fierce winds and heavy rain.” AFP reported.

“The wind is very strong, there is a lot of damage to crops,” he said.

Tropical Cyclone Tomas (TC 19P) – Summary of Details on March 16 at 00:01UTC

• Position:  18.2S 179.9W
• Max Sustained Winds :  210km/hr (~ 115 kts)
• Wind Gusts: ~ 260km/hr ( 140 kts)
• Movement: South
• Forward Speed:  9km/hr (~ 05 kts)
• Location: 315km  (170 NM) EAST-NORTHEAST of NADI, FIJI
• Comment: TOMAS is a Category 4A hurricane on the  FEWW New Hurricane Scale. The cyclone has good radial outflow and is experiencing low vertical wind shear. It is  expected to start weakening in about 48 hours, becoming fully extratropical in 72 hours, as it experiences lower ocean heat content and higher vertical wind shear.
• Maximum significant wave height: 9m (27 feet)
• Sources: JTWC, CIMSS and others.

Cyclone TOMAS Projected Track. Source: JTWC. Click image to enlarge.

Cyclone ULUI  (TC 20P) Details on March 16 at 00:01UTC

• Position: 13.3S 157.8E
• Max Sustained Winds:  232 km/hr (~ 125 kts)
• Wind Gusts: 290km/hr (~ 155 kts)
• Movement:  West
• Forward Speed:  ~ 7 km/hr ( 4 kts)
• Location: About 1,710km (925 NM) NNE of Brisbane, Australia
• Maximum significant wave height: 12m (36 feet)
• Sources: JTWC, CIMSS and others.
• Comment: ULUI is expected to start dissipating over water after about 72  hours due to increasing vertical wind shear and decreasing ocean heat content. The cyclone is  a Category 4B hurricane on the  FEWW New Hurricane Scale.

Cyclone ULUI Projected Track. Source: JTWC. Click image to enlarge.

MTSAT (NOAA) images from NOAA– Click images to enlarge and animate.

MTSAT – IR Image

MTSAT – Colorized IR Image

MTSAT – Visible Image

• Water Vapor Loop

Related Links:

• Tropical Cyclone TOMAS
• Tropical Cyclone ULUI

• Cyclones TOMAS and ULUI – UPDATE Mar 15
• Cyclones ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 14
• TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 13
• Tropical Cyclones Now Come in Pairs
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Tropical Cyclone ULUI

Birth and Life of ULUI

Tropical Cyclone ULUI – Visible image – MTSAT 1R – Dated March 15, 2009 at 06:00UTC.   Source: Digital Typhoon.  Click image to enlarge.

ULUI Close Up

Tropical Cyclone ULUI – Visible image – MTSAT 1R – Dated March 15, 2009 at 06:00UTC.   Source: Digital Typhoon.  Click image to enlarge.

How TOMAS and ULUI were born:

• Last 24 Hours : MPEG / WMV
• Last 120 Hours : MPEG / WMV
• Last 240 Hours : MPEG / WMV

Latest Brief:

• TOMAS:  Sustained Wind speeds of about 213 km/hr (115 kt) with wind gusts of up to 260 km/hr (140 kt)
• ULUI:  Sustained Wind speeds of about 242 km/hr (130 kt) with wind gusts of up to 300 km/hr (160 kt)

[Intensity is based on PGTW and KNES DVORAK intensity estimates of 130 kt, JTWC said.]

Related Links:

• Cyclones TOMAS and ULUI – UPDATE Mar 15
• Cyclones ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 14
• TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 13
• Tropical Cyclones Now Come in Pairs
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale