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Posts Tagged ‘Earthquake Forecast 2009’

Deadly Earthquake Strikes Java, Indonesia

Posted by feww on September 2, 2009

Powerful earthquake measuring at least 7.3 Mw strikes off the coast of Java, Indonesia.

FEWW ‘EarthModel’ estimated the magnitude as 7.6 Mw, while the quake was recorded by the European-Mediterranean Seismological Center as a magnitude 7.3Mw (±0.4 )

More than 20 people have been killed according to the initial reports, with  hundreds of structures destroyed or damaged in the city of Tasikmalaya and town of Sukabumi west of Java. Thousands of people have been evacuated, taking refuge in open areas, including the grounds of a military base.

Dozens more people were injured, including up to 50 people in Jakarta, about 190km from the epicenter, officials said.

deadly java quake
Magnitude 7.6Mw destroyed or damaged many buildings in the city of Tasikmalaya west of the island of Java. Photo: AFP. Image may be subject to copyright.

The quake struck offshore, with the epicenter about 115km west-southwest of Tasikmalaya city (190 km SSE of the Capital Jakarta), at a depth of about 60 km.

The mainshock was followed by at least 4 aftershocks, with 2 of the shocks measuring 5.6 and  5.2. Local tsunami warnings automatically issued after the quake have now been withdrawn. Local seismologists reported small  sea levels rises near the west coast of Java.

Summary of Earthquake details as reported by
European-Mediterranean Seismological Center

Magnitude:  7.3 Mw (±0.4 )

Date and time: 2009-09-02 at 07:55:03.8 UTC
Location: 7.84 S ; 107.35 E
Depth: 70 km

  • 91 km S Banjaran (pop 164,952 ; local time 14:55 2009-09-02)
  • 72 km S Banjar (pop 37,263 ; local time 14:55 2009-09-02

Automatic GEOFON Global Seismic Monitor

© Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum – GFZ

GFZ Potsdam – Earthquake Bulletin

  • Region: Java, Indonesia
  • Time: 2009-09-02 07:55:02.7 UTC
  • Magnitude: 7.4
  • Epicenter: 107.34°E 8.00°S
  • Depth: 62 km
  • Status: manually revised

In line with their current practice of downsizing nearly all their EQ reports in 2009, USGS Earthquake Hazard Program downgraded the quake to a magnitude 7.0 Mw.

FEWW Earthquake Forecast For Java/Bali Region:

  • Region: Java/Bali, Indonesia
  • Date of Occurrence: September to Late December 2009
  • Magnitude: 8.4+
  • Epicenter: 10°40’31.43″S 114°55’33.81″E
  • Depth: 40 km

Related Links:

Posted in Challis Oil Field, earthquake forecast, East Nusa Tenggara, Jabiru Oil Field, NW Australia, Plate boundaries, quake forecast, seismic event forecast, Timor Sea, Timor sea quake | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 8 Comments »

Alaska Earthquake Forecast: Update 3

Posted by feww on August 29, 2009


Alaska Earthquake Forecast: Update 2

New estimate for Alska earthquke forecast

  • NEW Magnitude: 8.4 ~ 9.2
  • Probability of occurrence: 0.8
  • Estimated date of occurrence: November 19, 2009
  • Date uncertainty: +/- 90 days.
  • NEW Estimated Location: 60°56’37.03″N 150°12’7.37″W
  • Location uncertainty: Radius of about 35 km from the estimated epicenter
  • NEW Estimated depth: 12km [+/-3.2km]

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged: , , , , | 1 Comment »

Strong Quake Strikes Near Shizuoka, Japan

Posted by feww on August 11, 2009

Magnitude 6.4 Quake strikes Near Shizuoka, the South Coast of Honshu, Japan

A strong earthquake measuring 6.4Mw occurred about 30km SSW of Shizuoka, Japan, USGS reported, striking at a depth of 30km at 20:07:07 UTC on Monday.

The mainshock was followed by a cluster of a dozen aftershocks, the largest of which has measured about 3.9 so far.

Japan’s broadcaster, NHK, reported that the quake had rattled buildings in Tokyo, and that bullet train services had been halted pending track inspection.

10-degree Map Centered at 35°N,140°E

us2009kdb4 shizuoka
Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS

Earthquake Details

  • Magnitude: 6.4
  • Date-Time:
    • Monday, August 10, 2009 at 20:07:07 UTC
    • Tuesday, August 11, 2009 at 05:07:07 AM at epicenter
  • Location: 34.727°N, 138.278°E
  • Depth: 26.8 km (16.7 miles)
  • Distances
    • 30 km (20 miles) SSW of Shizuoka, Honshu, Japan
    • 55 km (35 miles) E of Hamamatsu, Honshu, Japan
    • 110 km (70 miles) SSW of Kofu, Honshu, Japan
    • 170 km (105 miles) SW of TOKYO, Japan
  • Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 9.7 km (6.0 miles); depth +/- 3.6 km (2.2 miles)
  • Parameters: NST= 74, Nph= 75, Dmin=708 km, Rmss=1.24 sec, Gp= 50°,  M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=6
  • Source:  USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
  • Event: ID us2009kdb4

Japan Meteorological Agency seismic intensity scale

20090811050941353-110507 jma  seismic intensity
The map shows the regions where the maximum observed Seismic Intensity was 3 or greater [see date and time.]
JMA Seismic Intensity scale is divided into 10 categories: Scales  0 to 4, 5 lower, 5 upper, 6 lower, 6 upper and 7. For an explanation of the intensity see: Japan Meteorological Agency seismic intensity scale. Image Copyright Japan Meteorological Agency.

Tsunami Advisory

Japan’s Meteorological agency, which registered the quake as 6.6, issued an initial tsunami advisory based on its observation at on august 111, 2009 at 07:13 local time, and reported up to 60cm waves at Yaizu. The initial tsunami advisory was  canceled soon after. No tsunami damage was reported.

Initial Tsunami Observation

04_11_00_20090811062229 jma 1
Copyright Japan Meteorological Agency

Maximum Tsunami Observation –
Tsunami Information NUMBER 6

Issued at 06:22 JST 11 Aug 2009

04_11_00_20090811062229 JMA
Copyright Japan Meteorological Agency

A Seismically Intense Day or So!

In a 35-hr period between August 9,  2009,  at 10:55:56  and August 10,  at 20:07:08  5 strong to powerful earthquake struck the Pacific Ring of Fire and Andaman Islands.

Items listed are in order of  L to R:)   Magnitude, Date, Time, Latitude (degrees), Longitude (degrees), Depth, Locatoion

  • 7.1   2009/08/09   10:55:56    33.144   138.040   303.1     IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
  • 6.6   2009/08/10   04:06:32    -11.596   166.093   42.8      SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
  • 5.7   2009/08/10   17:46:28    -3.127     143.179    35.0      NEAR NORTH COAST OF NEW GUINEA, P.N.G.
  • 7.6   2009/08/10   19:55:39    14.013    92.923       33.1      ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
  • 6.4   2009/08/10   20:07:08   34.727   138.278    26.8       NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

usgs-wall st map
Source: USGS/WSJ on line. The map doesn’t include the Mag 7.1 Izu Isles quake

Related Links:

Posted in Japan Tsunami Information, seismic event report, Seismic Hazard, tokyo earthquake forecast, Tsunami Observation | Tagged: , , , , | 4 Comments »

More Aftershocks Strike Gulf of Calif, NZ

Posted by feww on August 5, 2009

Another strong aftershock Strikes Gulf of California

A strong aftershock measuring 5.5Mw struck the Gulf of California on Wednesday, August 5, at 09:13:13 UTC, USGS reported.

The latest aftershock was the third one reported by USGS, which had earlier upgraded a previous aftershock, the largest to date, to a magnitude 6.2 [from 5.9 Mw.]

A powerful mainshock measuring 6.9 shook the Gulf of California on Monday.

10-degree Map Centered at 30°N,115°W

Earthquake Location Map. USGS

Location: 29.615°N, 113.850°W
Depth: 10km
Event ID: us2009jwbr

A powerful aftershock strikes off west coast of the South Island, NZ

Meanwhile, a much stronger aftershock measuring 6.1Mw struck off west coast of the South Island, New Zealand.

Location: 45.472°S, 166.336°E
Depth: 10km
Event ID: us2009jyaw

Click on the link for details of the mainshock:
Powerful 7.8 M Quake Strikes New Zealand Region

Related Links

Posted in Kermadec trench, Mt Ruapehu Eruption Alert, Plate Tectonics, Seismic Hazard | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Earthquake Cluster Hits Yellowstone National Park

Posted by feww on December 31, 2008

More than two dozen earthquakes magnitude 2.5 and larger strike Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming

FEWW Forecast: There could be as much as 37 percent more earthquakes in the United States in 2009;  some may occur in areas not prone to quakes, e.g., north, northeast, south and central U.S.

Magnitude 3.5 quake strikes  YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK, WYOMING

Source: USGS

This Earthquake
Magnitude: 3.5


  • Wednesday, December 31, 2008 at 09:02:28 UTC
  • Wednesday, December 31, 2008 at 02:02:28 AM at epicenter

Location: 44.523°N, 110.362°W
Depth: 0.4 km (~0.2 mile) (poorly constrained)

  • 61 km (38 miles) ESE (104°) from West Yellowstone, MT
  • 64 km (40 miles) SSE (154°) from Gardiner, MT
  • 64 km (40 miles) SSW (211°) from Cooke City-Silver Gate, MT
  • 437 km (272 miles) NNE (16°) from Salt Lake City, UT

Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 0.5 km (0.3 miles); depth +/- 7.9 km (4.9 miles)
Source: University of Utah Seismograph Stations [via USGS]
Event ID: uu00002649

FEWW Team will provide a more definitive earthquake forecast for the US in 2009 once it’s had a chance to re-examine the data to confirm the preliminary analysis.

Posted in earthquake, Gardiner, Salt Lake City, Seismicity, subduction zone | Tagged: , , , , | 2 Comments »

Earthquake Forecast 2009

Posted by feww on December 18, 2008

Earthquake Forecast 2009 – country in focus: Japan

2009 Earthquake Forecast by FEWW / CASF –
Release Date: December 18, 2008. [All data are subject to updates and changes.]

Historic Japan earthquakes: 2008 [as of  December 18, 2008]

See Also:

[Earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater or ones that caused fatalities, injuries or substantial damage. Source: Data Compiled by Pamela J. Benfield and NEIC Operations Staff.]

Historic japan earthquake: 2007


Earthquake Density Map of Japan [USGS]

Seismicity Map

Credit: USGS

Seismic Hazard Map of Japan

Credit: USGS

Notable Earthquakes in Japan [USGS]

Source: USGS


Source: USGS

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Posted in earthquake damage, Earthquake death, Honshu quakes, Japan quakes, population exposure, Significant Earthquakes | Tagged: , , , , | 5 Comments »