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Posted by feww on November 10, 2018
FESC 03 -111002
Nominated Groups:
Latest FIRE-EARTH DIRECTIVES, ALERTS, FORECASTS, BULLETINS and MESSAGES available via FIRE-EARTH PULSARS.
Posted in News Alert | Tagged: 111002, california, California earthquake forecast, earthquake forecast, FESC 03, Fire-Earth Alert, FIRE-EARTH PULSARS, Top Ten Alerts | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on October 7, 2018
KMPH – 100702
Magnitude: 5.9 mww
Location: 20.041°N, 72.975°W; 11.7 km depth
Distances: 19km NW of Ti Port-de-Paix, Haiti [Area pop: ~ 450,000]
Time: 2018-10-07 00:11:49 (UTC)
Source: USGS
Plate-Tectonics Diagnostics
FIRE-EARTH Forecast for the region and nearby seismicity is available via FIRE-EARTH PULSARS.
Posted in News Alert | Tagged: 100702, earthquake, earthquake forecast, Haiti, KMPH, Ti Port-de-Paix | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on October 2, 2018
Death toll from the 7.5 magnitude earthquake and tsunami that destroyed portions of the central Indonesian island of Sulawesi was revised to 1,234 on Tuesday, disaster officials said.
Related Links:
Earthquake Diagnostics
FIRE-EARTH Forecast for the region and nearby seismicity is available via FIRE-EARTH PULSARS.
Posted in News Alert | Tagged: earthquake forecast, Indonesia, Sulawesi, tsunami death toll, Tsunami Model | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on October 2, 2018
KBL – 100102
M 6.0 – 30km SSW of Nggongi, Indonesia
10.462°S 120.168°E;10.0 km depth
2018-10-02 00:16:43 (UTC)
M5.9
37km S of Nggongi, Indonesia
10.535°S, 120.253°E; 10.6 km
2018-10-01 23:59:40 (UTC)
M5.4
31km S of Nggongi Satu, Indonesia
22.3 km
2018-10-01 23:27:06 (UTC)
M5.0
33km SSW of Nggongi Satu, Indonesia
10.0 km
2018-10-01 23:12:02 (UTC)
Diagnostics
FIRE-EARTH Forecast for the region and nearby seismicity is available via FIRE-EARTH PULSARS.
Posted in News Alert | Tagged: 100102, earthquake, earthquake forecast, Indonesia, M6.0, Nggongi | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on September 17, 2018
PRN – 091702
Earthquake Details:
Magnitude: 6.5 mww
Location: 25.453°S, 178.220°E
Distances: Suva, Fiji 809.9 km (503.2 mi) S – Population: 77,366
Depth: 570.0 km
Time: 2018-09-16 @ 21:11:48.450 (UTC)
[USGS]
Diagnostics
FIRE-EARTH EARTHQUAKE FORECAST
FIRE-EARTH Forecast for the region and nearby seismicity is available via FIRE-EARTH PULSARS.
Posted in News Alert | Tagged: earthquake, earthquake forecast, Fiji Islands, M6.5, South Fiji Basin, SUVA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on August 22, 2018
ER: MBT – lg– PALKSRNS
CBW – 082202
Magnitude: 7.3 mww [USGS]
Location: 10.739°N 62.911°W
Depth: 123.2 km
Time: 2018-08-21 @ 1:31:42 UTC
Distances:
Notes:
Detailed Information
FIRE-EARTH EARTHQUAKE FORECAST
FIRE-EARTH Forecast for the region and nearby seismicity is available via FIRE-EARTH PULSARS.
Posted in News Alert | Tagged: Carúpano, earthquake, earthquake forecast, M7.3, Venezuela, Yaguaraparo | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on May 17, 2017
The event was followed by at least one aftershock, as of posting.
EQ Details
M 4.1 – 13km W of Isla Vista, California
Location: 34.421°N, 120.007°W
Depth: 2.6km
Time: 2017-05-17 04:42:25 (UTC)
M 3.1 – 14km WNW of Isla Vista, CA
Location: 34.457°N 119.998°W
Depth: 6.0 km
Time: 2017-05-17 04:43:29 (UTC)
Posted in News Alert | Tagged: california, earthquake, earthquake forecast, FIRE-EARTH PULSARS, Isla Vista, Seismic analysis | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on January 5, 2017
NZ EQ Report: ‘Severe’ EQ Hits 40km SSE of Blenheim
Magnitude: 5.3 [Geonet]
Depth: 13km
Location: 41.85S, 173.99E [20 km SW of Seddon]
Time: 11:17:33 (UTC) on January 5, 2017
Depth: 13km
Posted in News Alert | Tagged: Blenheim, CJ Members, EAC, earthquake, earthquake forecast, Fire-Earth Alert, Major Transformation, new zealand, Seismic Episode, TML | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on May 29, 2015
FIRE-EARTH EARTHQUAKE FORECAST
FIRE-EARTH Models show a mega earthquake measuring up to magnitude 8.8Mw could strike Alaska Peninsula between now and June 2015 with a probability of 0.7.
Forecast Details
Magnitude: 8.8Mw
Depth: 18km
Time: May – June 2015
Region: Alaska Peninsula
Probability: 0.7
Posted in News Alert | Tagged: Alaska, Alaska Earthquake forecast, Alaska Peninsula, earthquake forecast, FIRE-EARTH earthquake FORECAST | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on May 13, 2015
FIRE-EARTH Science Team has prepared its earthquake forecast for Nepal region.
The forecast will not be made public, but would be provided to the appropriate Nepalese officials at no cost, if requested.
Details of any communication between the parties shall remain strictly confidential.
Posted in News Alert | Tagged: earthquake, earthquake forecast, Earthquake Forecast for Nepal, FIRE-EARTH earthquake FORECAST, nepal | 2 Comments »
Posted by feww on December 7, 2014
Centered at 6.537°S, 154.455°E the quake occurred at a depth of 10.0km (6.2mi), said USGS/EHP.
Event Time: 2014-12-07 01:22:00 UTC
Location: 6.537°S 154.455°E depth=10.0km (6.2mi)
Nearby Cities
The quake did not generate a destructive tsunami.
At least 4 significant aftershocks, one measuring 5.7Mw followed the quake as of posting.
Magnitude: 6.0Mw [USGS/EHP]
Event Time: 2014-12-06 17:21:49 UTC
Location: 8.013°N 82.703°W depth=14.0km (8.7mi)
Nearby Cities:
A deadly earthquake measuring magnitude 5.8 struck Jinggu County in southwest China’s Yunnan province on Saturday, killing at least one person and leaving 15 others injured, reported the official Xinhua news.
The quake was centered at 23.3N, 100.5E striking at a depth of 9km, the China Earthquake Networks Center said.
IMPORTANT NOTICE: FIRE-EARTH EQ Forecast
For detailed FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecasts tune into Fire-Earth Reports daily @ 06:32UTC.
Posted in earthquake report | Tagged: 7 December 2014, China, earthquake forecast, FIRE-EARTH FORECAST, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Significant Earthquake | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on April 3, 2014
See below for details:
Forecast Earthquake Details
Magnitude: 9.4Mw (Provisional )
Provisional Location: 17.8°S, 72.1°W (Provisional )
Provisional Depth: 12 km (Provisional )
Date/Time: April 3 – April 30 2014
Probability: 54% (provisional)
Tsunami Forecast
Large, destructive tsunami waves HIGHLY PROBABLE.
1. FIRE-EARTH Models used for the above forecast are unique, proprietary tools owned by the blog’s science team. There are NO similar models anywhere on this planet. Any earthquake forecasts that go beyond the traditional “menstruation cycles” are “scholarly” forgeries, plagiarizing our research.
2. The forecast is subject to change, or withdrawal.
3. See also DISCLAIMER posted HERE.
On March 17, 2014, FIRE-EARTH posted an Earthquake Forecast for Chile, which was immediately hacked. The update was posted at Another Significant Aftershock Strikes Coastal Chile, on the same day, which stated:
Tsunami Forecast: Large tsunami waves highly probable.
Forecast Details
Related Links
FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecasts for California and Japan
Due to the reasons explained previously on this blog, FIRE-EARTH Science Team has suspended its research on California and Japan seismicity.
Posted in earthquake forecast, Earthquake news, Global Disaster watch, significant events | Tagged: chile earthquake, earthquake forecast, earthquake warning, FIRE-EARTH earthquake FORECAST, mega earthquake, peru earthquake, Peru-Chile Trench, Tsunami Forecast | 1 Comment »
Posted by feww on March 18, 2014
Centered at 34.135°N, 118.486°W, 10km (6mi) NW of Beverly Hills, California, the quake struck at a depth of 9.9km (6.1mi) on Monday March 17, 2014 at 13:25:36UTC.
The event was followed by a small aftershock measuring 2.6Mw, which occurred three minutes later.
Earthquake Details
Magnitude: 4.4Mw [USGS/EHP]
Event Time: 2014-03-17 at 13:25:36UTC
Location: 34.135°N 118.486°W depth=9.9km (6.1mi)
Nearby Cities:
Earthquake Location Map
Earthquakes Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP
Due to the reasons explained previously on this blog, FIRE-EARTH Science Team has suspended its research on California seismicity.
Posted in Global Disaster watch, Significant Event Imagery, significant events | Tagged: Beverly Hills, California earthquake, earthquake 2014, earthquake forecast, FIRE-EARTH earthquake FORECAST, Seismic Hazard, U.S. Earthquakes, Westwood | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on March 17, 2014
Forecast Details
Posted in Global Disaster watch, significant events | Tagged: earthquake forecast, feww earthquake forecast, FIRE-EARTH FORECAST, Peru-Chile Trench | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on October 28, 2012
The powerful quake struck off Canada’s Pacific coast at a depth of about 16 km generating a tsunami, which forced the authorities in Hawaii to order more than 100,000 people evacuate the shorelines.
Quake Details
Region: Queen Charlotte Islands
Time: 2012-10-28 03:04:09.7 UTC
Magnitude: 7.7 (Mw)
Epicenter: 52.59°N, 132.19°W
Depth: 16 km
Source: GEOFON
EQ Location Map. Source: GEOFON © Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
The Largest Earthquake in Canada
Canada’s largest earthquake (magnitude 8.1) since 1700, occurred on August 22, 1949 off the coast of BC. It occurred on the Queen Charlotte Fault (Canada’s equivalent of the San Andreas Fault) – the boundary between the Pacific and North American plates that runs underwater along the west coast of the Queen Charlotte Islands off the west coast of British Columbia. The shaking was so severe on the Queen Charlotte Islands that cows were knocked off their feet, and a geologist with the Geological Survey of Canada working on the north end of Graham Island could not stand up. Chimneys toppled, and an oil tank at Cumshewa Inlet collapsed. In Terrace, on the adjacent mainland, cars were bounced around, and standing on the street was described as “like being on the heaving deck of a ship at sea”. In Prince Rupert, windows were shattered and buildings swayed. —Natural resources of Canada
Related Links:
Posted in Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2012, global earthquakes | Tagged: British Columbia, Canada Earthquake, CANADA QUAKE, earthquake, earthquake forecast, Earthquakes, feww earthquake forecast, Lady Douglas, Port Hardy, Prince Rupert, Queen Charlotte Fault, Queen Charlotte Islands, Queen Charlotte quake, seismic activity report, tsunami, Vancouver | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on September 7, 2012
Earthquake cluster struck SW China’s Yunnan and Guizhou provinces causing many deaths, injuries and major damage to property, reports said.
Posted in Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2012, global earthquakes | Tagged: china earthquake forecast, China quake, Deadly China Quake, earthquake, earthquake forecast, FIRE-EARTH FORECAST, Guizhou, Yunnan, Zhaotong | 1 Comment »
Posted by feww on March 9, 2012
on November 19, 2011 FIRE-EARTH posted the following forecast:
Earlier today, MSNBC posted the following:
We won’t ask, what new data? However, note the researchers’ inappropriate use of the term “mirror image,” which they almost certainly borrowed from earlier FIRE-EARTH forecast [https://feww.wordpress.com/2009/08/19/new-round-of-geo-assualt/] but used it in the wrong context. Their slick prophecy about the time of occurrence, “it could be sooner rather than later,” is also mysteriously consistent with the above FIRE-EARTH forecast(i.e, short term). Though the researchers fail to say how they arrived at their conclusion or where it came from.
Quake catastrophe like Japan’s could hit Pacific Northwest, new data show
“It’s just like Japan, only a mirror image,” said Gerard Fryer, a geophysicist at the University of Hawaii and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.
“Where are we here? Are we close or are we not close?” he asked. “I think the suspicion is that it could be sooner rather than later.” [Based on what assumptions?]
[…]
Like Fryer, he called the Pacific Northwest trench a “mirror image” of the Japanese trench — except potentially even more dangerous.“In this mirror image, one can see that if the same earthquake occurred in Cascadia, the fault would rupture to a significant distance inland, since the Cascadia trench sits much closer to the coastline than the trench off the coast of Japan,” Anderson said.
MAJOR GEOLOGICAL EPISODES that are likely to IMPACT THE ENTIRE WESTERN UNITED STATES, as forecast by FIRE-EARTH, will comprise a number of discrete events, including at least several ‘surprises.’
Readers who are in doubt about the originality of the research at Hawaii and Nevada universities, could put their minds at rest of course by emailing the two academics named in the MSNBC article and asking them for details of those events (e.g, type, sequence, scale, probability of occurrence…).
In Japan Earthquake Forecast, posted on February 14, 2012, we said:
A Note to Seismologists at Tokyo University and Tohoku University, Japan
FIRE-EARTH MODERATORS STRONGLY URGE YOU TO PRODUCE ORIGINAL RESEARCH AND REFRAIN FROM PIGGYBACK RIDING ON OUR FORECASTS.
ONCE AGAIN, YOU HAVE MADE US EXTREMELY RELUCTANT TO POST ANY FUTURE EARTHQUAKE FORECAST.
Staff at Research Center for Prediction of Earthquakes & Volcanic Eruptions, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University are strongly advised to focus on probability of the next major earthquake in China.
How could researchers from 4 different universities located on the opposite ends of Pacific Ocean, about 9,000km (5,500 miles) apart bluff their way in identical ways, fooling their respective taxpayers into believing they know their science? Is there a common link between Japan earthquake researchers, and their counterparts in Western U.S.?
Interestingly, it seems there is a solid link. Read the rest of MSNBC article Quake catastrophe like Japan’s could hit Pacific Northwest, new data show.
Related Links
Posted in Global Disaster watch, global disasters | Tagged: Cascadia trench, earthquake forecast, Earthquakes, eastern Pacific, extreme climatic events, extreme geological episodes, extreme geophysical episodes, FIRE-EARTH earthquake FORECAST, FIRE-EARTH FORECAST, GEOLOGICAL Activity, Geological Events Western US, japan earthquake forecast, Japan Megaquake, JAPAN Region Earthquake Forecast, MAJOR GEOLOGICAL EPISODES, Mechanism for Mega Disasters, Mega Disasters, Quake catastrophe like Japan’s could hit Pacific Northwest, US earthquakes, US volcanoes | 5 Comments »
Posted by feww on January 28, 2012
FIRE-EARTH Models show a large earthquake measuring up to 8.3Mw could strike within a 50-km radius of Iwaki, Japan.
Forecast Details
[NOTE: This forecast may be affected by other seismic events in the region. For UPDATES see comments section below.]
Posted in Earthquake Warning, earthquake warning Honshu, Earthquakes, Megathrust earthquakes | Tagged: disasters 2012, earthquake, earthquake forecast, Fukushima quake forecast, Iwaki earthquake forecast, japan earthquake forecast, Japan quake, JPTRMT1, Tectonics Update | 1 Comment »
Posted by feww on June 17, 2011
For this forecast, EarthModel calculated about 12,000 variables using more than 200 trillion discrete computational steps in each simulation.
In the case of a previous forecast, The Next Icelandic Volcano Likely to Erupt, posted on April 22, 2010, the Model performed about 40 times as many steps.
FIRE-EARTH also employs other models including EARTH ENERGY MODEL (EEM), designed by EDRO, and several probabilistic and dynamic models.
The blog forecasts are based on deep knowledge of geophysics and very high level simulation of computer modeling.
If you are copying the results of FIRE-EARTH research, often posted on the blog as incidental summaries, and representing them as that of your own using “mundane astrology,” or “psychic and para-normal abilities,” as a blogger recently put it, “to portend a significant period on earth of profound change,” then you would be acting disingenuously and maliciously.
By making false prophecies you would only contribute to compounding the human ignorance, albeit that of the gullible internet dwellers.
Most intelligent Internet users would instantly see through prophecies like: “The period between 2012 and 2016 will see drastic ‘readjustments’ as 7 transiting to transiting squares between Uranus in Aries and Pluto in Capricorn cause wide spread dislocations, famine, earthquakes, tornandoes, floods, volcanoes and a period of very dry weather; alternating between hot and cold.”
Posted in environment | Tagged: astrology, computer modeling, earthquake forecast, FIRE-EARTH FORECAST, FIRE-EARTH Volcano Forecast, Geophysics, Iceland Volcanic Activity, para-normal, psychic | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on January 15, 2011
Related Links:
Posted in New Zealand earthquake, New Zealand earthquake forecast | Tagged: earthquake forecast, feww earthquake forecast, Kermadec Islands Region, megaquake forecast, New Zealand Region | 3 Comments »
Posted by feww on December 21, 2010
Earthquake Location Map. Cross shows epicenter of the 7.4Mw quake, while the colored bubbles indicate the seismic intensity at various monitoring centers in Japan. Source: Japan’s Meteorological Agency (JMA). Image may be subject to copyright.
The 7.4Mw quake struck at a depth of 10km and created a tsunami which reached a height of about 3m (10 feet) in at least a dozen locations around Japan’s coastal areas
JMA said on its Website:
Tsunami Observations
As of 05:40 JST (UTC+ 9 hours)
At some parts of the coasts, tsunamis may be higher than those observed at the observation sites.
The tsunamis can become higher from now on.
However, JMA later downgraded the warning to a tsunami advisory for the area.
Tsunami Map for the 7.4Mw Bonin Islands Earthquake. Source: Japan’s Meteorological Agency (JMA). Image may be subject to copyright. The tsunami reached a height of about 3m in at least 12 locations around Japan’s coastal areas.
About 3 dozen strong aftershocks were reported, as of posting, the most significant of which measured 5.0Mw. Many more aftershocks may follow in the coming days and weeks.
More powerful earthquakes, some related to this event, could strike Japan Region, much closer to the coastal areas.
On June 13, 2010, FIRE-EARTH forecast
Fire Earth Model shows that Japan region could be struck by up to 4 additional strong to large earthquakes possibly this year/early next year, one of which could be a catastrophic event.
Posted in Bonin Islands Earthquakes, Chichijima Kinkai, Japan earthquake forecast, Japan tsunami, Ogasawara Islands | Tagged: Bonin Islands, earthquake forecast, japan earthquake, Japan quake, Tokyo Earthquake Forecast | 1 Comment »
Posted by feww on November 10, 2010
The earthquakes could affect a wide region within 100 to 150 km radius of Tokyo Bay area.
Related Links:
Posted in Honshu, Japan, japan earthquake, Japan earthquake forecast | Tagged: earthquake forecast, Honshu Earthquake Warning, Tokyo Bay earthquake, Tokyo Earthquake Forecast | 3 Comments »
Posted by feww on February 28, 2010
Chilean government has declared 6 regions as “zones of catastrophe,” but has made no formal request for international aid as yet.
Power and telephone lines are down throughout most of Chile making the flow of information extremely difficult [Other countries are advised to revise their communication systems]
Freeze frame from a local TV report shows a building in Concepcion that caught fire as a result of the earthquake.
The international airport in Santiago, the Chilean capital, located about 320km (200 miles) north of the epicenter, was closed as the megaquake caused damage to some roads and building facades.
A strong M6.3 aftershock in Salta, Argentina killed at least 2 people last night, officials said.
Rescue workers search for victims and survivors after an apartment complex collapsed during an earthquake in Concepcion some 100 km (62 miles) south of the epicenter, February 27, 2010. Credit: REUTERS/Jose Luis Saavedra. Image may be subject to copyright. For more image images, click links in the Related Images section below.
The megaquake was the fifth-largest seismic event since 1900. Chile was also the scene of the largest earthquake in the world which measured 9.5Mw, which killed 1,655 people and injure 3,000 others, leaving about 2,000,000 homeless.
The tsunami generated by the 1960 quake caused 61 deaths and $75 million damage in Hawaii [most of the damage occurred at Hilo, with the runup height reaching 10.6 m.] Several hundred other people in Japan and the Philippines were also killed or reported missing as a result of the destructive tsunami.
Collapsed highway Near Santiago. Vehicles driving along a highway that collapsed during the megaquake were thrown on the road below on Saturday. Photo Credit: Associated Press. Image may be subject to copyright. See FEWW Fair Use Notie.
Tsunami
Japan is bracing for a possible tsunami wave of 3m (10ft) or higher that could strike the Pacific coast of Hokkaido at about 13:00JST (04:00 UTC).
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)Tsunami Forecast Map. Image may be subject to copyright.
Japanese government has ordered thousands of residents on coastal areas to evacuate to higher grounds.
A tsunami generated by the megaquake overwhelmed the port of Talcahuano, a major port in southern Chile, causing substantial damage to the harbor and the boats, and flooding streets.
A huge wave swept the Juan Fernandez islands, President Michelle Bachelet was reported as saying. The wave reportedly 7, with at least a dozen more islanders reported missing, according to a local officials.
Hawaii recorded tsunami surges of up to 12 inches about half an hour later than oceanographers had forecast, according to an official with the Hawaii County Civil Defense. Some officials had predicted that the waves would be as high as 4.8m (14 feet) despite the freely available tsunami ADVISORY reports.
In French Polynesia, a 1.8m (6 ft ) high wave swept ashore. As of posting, there was no reports of casualties or damage. However, casualties and damage will most probably occur.
A 1.7m was observed at Valparaiso, west of Santiago, and reports of more damage are expected.
In Australia, a tsunami wave measuring 50cm (1.6 feet) was reported off Norfolk Island, about 1,600 kilometers (1,000 miles ) northeast of Sydney.
On Chatham Islands, NZ officials reported a 2-meter high wave striking the coast. About a thousand people in the coastal cities of Gisborne and Napier in the North Island were reportedly evacuated from low-lying areas.
In Tonga, there were reports of a 2.2-meter (6.6 feet) high wave sweeping an unnamed small northern island, an official said.
In the Philippines the officials said they were expecting a 1-meter high wave later this afternoon local time.
Socioeconomic Aftershocks
President Michelle Bachelet has said that two million Chileans have been affected by the Saturday’s Megaquake. Her estimate is realistic.
Thousands of people in Argentina may have also been affected.
10-degree Map Centered at 35°S,75°W (USGS)
Latest EQ Location map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW
Fire-Earth Moderators believe that the geophysical prognosis doesn’t bode well for Chile, and a number of other countries, especially those on the PRF, for at least the next 3 years.
On January 2, Fire-Earth forecast 2010 Likely the Most Disastrous Year on Record. See also 2010 Disaster Calender- Year One of Human-Enhanced Disasters.
Related Links:
Related Images:
Posted in chile, chile earthquake, Megaquake, tsunami, tsunami damage | Tagged: Argentina quake, chile earthquake, Concepción, concepcion chile, earthquake, earthquake forecast, Hokkaido tsunami, japan tsunami, map of chile, SANTIAGO quake, Talca quake, tsunami update | 7 Comments »
Posted by feww on February 21, 2010
In the same way “BERT DUCKS and Covers” helped to fan the flames of Cold War, the “Great Southern California Shakeout” and its “drop, cover and hold on” one-liner are engineering public alienation from nature on behalf of the Corporment.
The enemy has changed, from the old Cold war Adversary, Soviet Union, to Mother Nature, but the tried and tested mantra has remained the same: “Our lifestyle is not negotiable [sic.]”
The Corporment can’t afford having large numbers of people going around worrying about how to protect nature against their usual business.
*[Corporment = Government ruled by corporate interests]
The following is a public information notice:
Great Southern California Shakeout results provide new communication strategies
Researchers who devised the largest earthquake preparedness event ever undertaken in the United States say one of the biggest challenges was translating devastation projections from a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 San Andreas Fault temblor into timely, usable information to the more than 5 million California participants in 2008.
Known as the Great Southern California Shakeout, the event was designed by more than 300 experts in fields including earth sciences, engineering, policy, economics and public health, said University of Colorado at Boulder Research Professor Keith Porter, who coordinated estimates of physical damages in the scenario. He said the interests of the scientists — including high-tech research and state-of-the-art projections — did not always coincide with concerns of the general public and emergency preparedness planners looking for timely, simple information on issues.
“One of the biggest challenges of the ShakeOut was to get scientists to speak the language of citizens,” said Porter of CU-Boulder’s civil, environmental and architectural engineering department. “While many researchers were concerned about advancing the state of science through different modeling scenarios and debate, the citizens made it clear to us they needed the big picture.”
Porter gave a presentation on the subject at the 2010 meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science held Feb. 18-22 in San Diego. Porter’s talk was part of a session titled “Earthquake Science and Advocacy: Helping Californians Live Along the San Andreas Fault.” The Great Southern California ShakeOut event was led by the U.S. Geological Survey.
Pushing the limits of science, including efforts like the ShakeOut, almost invariably creates a lack of consensus among scientists that can cause confusion in the public sector leading to “ambiguity aversion” — a preference by people to deal with known risks and to avoid dealing with risks where there is significant disagreement about the level of uncertainty, said Porter. “We found these people needed a single, discreet, story, which led us to explore and present what we thought was a single, realistic outcome of the hypothetical earthquake, as opposed to a discussion of possible outcomes.”
The 2008 ShakeOut scenario and a follow-up 2009 ShakeOut exercise involving more than 5 million Californians participating in “drop, cover and hold on” earthquake drills and other family, school and organizational emergency plans were huge successes, causing the USGS and collaborators to make the ShakeOut an annual event, Porter said. “Our hope is the activities undertaken by participants will become second nature,” he said. “In a sense it is similar to people taking CPR courses annually to keep up to speed.”
The USGS team that created the ShakeOut is now creating an emergency preparedness scenario known as ARkStorm to simulate the outcome of a series of massive West Coast storms similar to those that pounded California in 1861 and 1862. Those storms lasted for 45 days, flooded vast areas of northern and southern California, submerged a swath of the Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys 300 miles long and up to 60 miles wide and inundated large areas of Los Angeles and Orange counties.
Such storms draw heat and moisture from the tropical Pacific Ocean, forming “atmospheric rivers” that cause damage on the same scale of earthquakes and are projected to become more intense as a result of climate change, said Porter. Porter is leading the ARkStorm team that is assessing the potential outcome from such a storm in terms of physical damages, repair costs and the restoration time for buildings, dams, levees, harbors, bridges, roads, water supply systems and electric power.
Contact: Keith Porter
Keith.Porter@Colorado.edu
303-492-2732
University of Colorado at Boulder
Brewster Body Armor offers some protection, but is more mobile than the mobile shelter! Source: Flickr
Mobile Shelter. Be sure to duck your head down and under the shelter when the earthquake strikes! Source: Flickr
And there’s protection for your pooch, too … Source: Flickr
Related Links:
Posted in earthquake drill, Sacramento, San Andreas Fault, San Joaquin, U.S. Geological Survey | Tagged: ARkStorm, California earthquake, Con Artists, corporate war on nature, Corporment, Corporment Technicians, drop and cover and hold on, Duck and Cover, earthquake, earthquake forecast, Government ruled by corporate interests, Great Southern California ShakeOut, War Against Nature, war on nature | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on January 20, 2010
Strong earthquake measuring up to M6.1 struck offshore near Cayman Islands about 70 km (45 miles) ESE of George Town, Cayman Islands and about 880 km WNW of the powerful earthquake that devastated Port-au-Prince 8 days ago. The quake struck at a depth of about 10km on January 19, 2010 at 14:24 UTC.
Tsunami Report
There were no report of a tsunami in the area caused by this event.
Damage Report
The earthquake reportedly shook buildings in George town but there was no report of damage or injuries.
Previous Quakes
Grand Cayman was struck by a 6.8 Mw earthquake on December 14, 2004, three months after Hurricane Ivan had already raked the island. However, the quake caused only minor structural damage to some buildings.
FEWW Earthquake Forecast:
The Gonave Microplate, near the boundaries of which this earthquake occurred, could produce more seismicity in 2010, with possibly another powerful quake measuring 7.4 to 7.6Mw striking its southern boundary. Kingston, Jamaica could experience a powerful quake with a probability of 65 percent.
10-degree Map Centered at 20°N,80°W
Earthquake Location map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW. (Click Images to enlarge).
Seismic Hazard Map showing the west side end of the Gonave Microplate. USGS/EHP. Click image to enlarge.
Seismic Hazard Map of Haiti Region showing the east side of the Gonave Microplate, which is sandwiched between the North American and the Caribbean Plates .Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW. Click image to enlarge.
Earthquake Details
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Posted in Cayman Islands quake, Cienfuegos, eathquakes, George Town earthquake, Haiti earthquake, Montego Bay | Tagged: Caribbean plate, earthquake forecast, earthquake forecast 2010, feww earthquake forecast, Gonave Microplate, Grand Cayman quake, Jamaica, North American plate, Oriente Fracture | 1 Comment »
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