Fire Earth

Earth is fighting to stay alive. Mass dieoffs, triggered by anthropogenic assault and fallout of planetary defense systems offsetting the impact, could begin anytime!

Posts Tagged ‘earthquake forecast’

FIRE-EARTH Alert: Earthquake Forecast — California

Posted by feww on November 10, 2018

FESC 03 -111002

Nominated Groups:

  • CJ
  • UUT
  • IGE
  • OCT
  • TML

FIRE-EARTH Alert: Earthquake Forecast — California [12 months]

  • FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecast for California Region is now available via FIRE-EARTH PULSARS.

FIRE-EARTH Top Ten Alerts

  • All Groups


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Strong Earthquake Strikes N. Haiti

Posted by feww on October 7, 2018

KMPH – 100702

M5.9 earthquake occurs near Ti Port-de-Paix, Haiti –USGS
EQ Details

Magnitude: 5.9 mww
Location: 20.041°N, 72.975°W; 11.7 km depth
Distances: 19km NW of Ti Port-de-Paix, Haiti [Area pop: ~ 450,000]
Time: 2018-10-07 00:11:49 (UTC)
Source: USGS

Plate-Tectonics Diagnostics

  • FIRE-EARTH Science Plate-Tectonics Diagnostics is available via FIRE-EARTH PULSARS.


FIRE-EARTH Forecast for the region and nearby seismicity is available via FIRE-EARTH PULSARS.

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Death Toll in Indonesia’s Earthquake and Tsunami Could Exceed 2,000

Posted by feww on October 2, 2018

1,234 Bodies Recovered — Indonesia’s National Disaster Agency

Death toll from the 7.5 magnitude earthquake and tsunami that destroyed portions of the central Indonesian island of Sulawesi was revised to 1,234 on Tuesday, disaster officials said.

  • Liquefaction has buried hundreds more people.
  • More than 800 others  severely injured.
  • More than 65,000 homes have been damaged.
  • About 62,000 people have been displaced.
  • Fate of residents in several inaccessible areas is currently unknown.

Related Links:

Earthquake Diagnostics

  • FIRE-EARTH Diagnostics and Tsunami Model are available via FIRE-EARTH PULSARS.


FIRE-EARTH Forecast for the region and nearby seismicity is available via FIRE-EARTH PULSARS.

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M6.0 Quake Strikes Near Nggongi, Indonesia

Posted by feww on October 2, 2018

KBL – 100102

Strong Earthquake Strikes Offshore Nggongi, Indonesia

M 6.0 – 30km SSW of Nggongi, Indonesia
10.462°S 120.168°E;10.0 km depth
2018-10-02 00:16:43 (UTC)

37km S of Nggongi, Indonesia
10.535°S, 120.253°E; 10.6 km
2018-10-01 23:59:40 (UTC)

31km S of Nggongi Satu, Indonesia
22.3 km
2018-10-01 23:27:06 (UTC)

33km SSW of Nggongi Satu, Indonesia
10.0 km
2018-10-01 23:12:02 (UTC)


  • Diagnostics available via FIRE-EARTH PULSARS.


FIRE-EARTH Forecast for the region and nearby seismicity is available via FIRE-EARTH PULSARS.

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Deep Focus Earthquake Occurs in South Fiji Basin

Posted by feww on September 17, 2018

PRN  – 091702

M6.5 Quake Strikes South of the Fiji Islands

Earthquake Details:

Magnitude: 6.5 mww
Location: 25.453°S, 178.220°E
Distances: Suva, Fiji 809.9 km (503.2 mi) S – Population: 77,366
Depth: 570.0 km
Time: 2018-09-16 @ 21:11:48.450 (UTC)


  • Diagnostics available via FIRE-EARTH PULSARS.


FIRE-EARTH Forecast for the region and nearby seismicity is available via FIRE-EARTH PULSARS.

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Powerful Earthquake Rocks Northern Venezuela

Posted by feww on August 22, 2018


CBW – 082202

M7.3 Earthquake Strikes near Yaguaraparo, Venezuela


Magnitude: 7.3 mww    [USGS]
Location: 10.739°N 62.911°W
Depth: 123.2 km
Time: 2018-08-21 @ 1:31:42 UTC

  • 20km NNW of Yaguaraparo, Venezuela
  • 38.4 km (23.9 mi) ENE of Carúpano, Venezuela [Pop: 112,082]


  • NO Tsunami threat from this earthquake –PTWC
  • Fatalities are expected. However, there have been no immediate reports of casualties or significant damage.
  • Shaking was felt across Venezuela, local media reported.
  • The quake was felt as far away as Bogota, Colombia.
  • It also was felt in Barbados, Grenada, Guyana and Trinidad.
  • “While there have been 17 previous M 6+ earthquakes in this region, large earthquakes are rare; this is the largest historic event within 250 km of this location in the 20th and 21st centuries,” USGS said.

Detailed Information

  • Diagnostics available via FIRE-EARTH PULSARS.


FIRE-EARTH Forecast for the region and nearby seismicity is available via FIRE-EARTH PULSARS.

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Shallow Earthquake Strikes near Isla Vista, California

Posted by feww on May 17, 2017

M4.1 quake strikes 13km W of Isla Vista, California

The event was followed by at least one aftershock, as of posting.

EQ Details

M 4.1 – 13km W of Isla Vista, California
Location: 34.421°N, 120.007°W
Depth: 2.6km
Time: 2017-05-17 04:42:25 (UTC)

M 3.1 – 14km WNW of Isla Vista, CA
Location: 34.457°N 119.998°W
Depth: 6.0 km
Time: 2017-05-17 04:43:29 (UTC)

  • Seismic analysis and forecast are available from FIRE-EARTH PULSARS.

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FIRE-EARTH Alert: Seismic Episodes Ominous for NZ

Posted by feww on January 5, 2017

  • CJ Members
  • EAC
  • OC Teams

New Zealand Undergoing Major Geological Transformation, as Forecast

NZ EQ Report: ‘Severe’ EQ Hits 40km SSE of Blenheim

Magnitude: 5.3 [Geonet]
Depth: 13km
Location:  41.85S, 173.99E [20 km SW of Seddon]
Time: 11:17:33 (UTC) on January 5, 2017
Depth: 13km

  • Full analysis available from FIRE-EARTH PULSARS.

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Posted by feww on May 29, 2015


Major Earthquake measuring up to 8.8Mw could strike Alaska Peninsula

FIRE-EARTH Models show a mega earthquake measuring up to magnitude 8.8Mw could strike Alaska Peninsula between now and June 2015 with a probability of 0.7.

Forecast Details

Magnitude: 8.8Mw
Depth: 18km
Time: May – June 2015
Region: Alaska Peninsula
Probability: 0.7

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Earthquake Forecast for Nepal Region

Posted by feww on May 13, 2015

FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecast for Nepal Region

FIRE-EARTH Science Team has prepared its earthquake forecast for Nepal region.

The forecast will not be made public, but would be provided to the appropriate Nepalese officials at no cost, if requested.

Details of any communication between the parties shall remain strictly confidential.

Related Links

Posted in News Alert | Tagged: , , , , | 2 Comments »

Significant Quakes – December 7, 2014

Posted by feww on December 7, 2014

SCENARIOS: 704, 703, 700, [500,] 09, 08, 07, 02

M6.8 Strikes Papua New Guinea (PNG)

Centered at 6.537°S, 154.455°E the quake occurred at a depth of 10.0km (6.2mi), said USGS/EHP.

Event Time: 2014-12-07 01:22:00 UTC
Location: 6.537°S 154.455°E depth=10.0km (6.2mi)
Nearby Cities

  • 116km (72mi) WSW of Panguna, PNG
  • 124km (77mi) WSW of Arawa, PNG
  • 685km (426mi) WNW of Honiara, Solomon Islands

The quake did not generate a destructive tsunami.

At least 4 significant aftershocks, one  measuring 5.7Mw followed the quake as of posting.


M6.0 strikes near Punta de Burica, Panama

Magnitude: 6.0Mw [USGS/EHP]
Event Time: 2014-12-06 17:21:49 UTC
Location: 8.013°N 82.703°W depth=14.0km (8.7mi)
Nearby Cities:

  • 18km (11mi) E of Punta de Burica, Panama
  • 34km (21mi) SSE of Puerto Armuelles, Panama
  • 49km (30mi) SW of Pedregal, Panama
  • 54km (34mi) SSW of David, Panama
  • 261km (162mi) SE of San Jose, Costa Rica

Deadly Earthquake Strikes Yunnan Province, China

A deadly earthquake measuring magnitude 5.8 struck Jinggu County in southwest China’s Yunnan province on Saturday, killing at least one person and leaving 15 others injured, reported the official Xinhua news.

The quake was centered at 23.3N, 100.5E striking at a depth of 9km, the China Earthquake Networks Center said.


For detailed FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecasts tune into Fire-Earth Reports  daily @ 06:32UTC.


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Posted by feww on April 3, 2014



FIRE-EARTH Models show a MEGA EARTHQUAKE could strike along Peru-Chile Trench in the next three weeks.

FIRE-EARTH FORECAST:  Magnitude 9.4Mw Could Strike Peru-Chile Trench in the next three weeks with a probability of 54%.

See below for details:

Forecast Earthquake Details

Magnitude: 9.4Mw (Provisional )
Provisional Location: 17.8°S, 72.1°W (Provisional )
Provisional Depth: 12 km (Provisional )
Date/Time: April 3 – April 30 2014
Probability: 54% (provisional)

Tsunami Forecast

Large, destructive tsunami waves HIGHLY PROBABLE.


1. FIRE-EARTH Models used for the above forecast are unique, proprietary tools owned by the blog’s science team. There are NO similar models anywhere on this planet. Any earthquake forecasts that go beyond the traditional “menstruation cycles” are “scholarly” forgeries,  plagiarizing our research.

2. The forecast is subject to change, or withdrawal.

3. See also DISCLAIMER posted HERE.


Previous FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecast for Chile

On March 17, 2014, FIRE-EARTH posted an Earthquake Forecast for Chile, which was immediately hacked. The update was posted at Another Significant Aftershock Strikes Coastal Chile, on the same day, which stated:

FIRE-EARTH Models show a large earthquake could strike along Peru-Chile Trench in the coming weeks.

Tsunami Forecast: Large tsunami waves highly probable.

Forecast Details

  • Magnitude: ≥8.2Mw
  • Location: 23.6°S, 70.8ºW
  • Depth: 30km
  • Time: March 17 – April 29, 2014
  • Probability of Occurrence: 0.75
  • Total Earthquake Energy for the Episode ≥ 0.25EJ

Related Links


FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecasts for California and Japan

Due to the reasons explained previously on this blog, FIRE-EARTH Science Team has suspended its research on California and Japan seismicity.


Posted in earthquake forecast, Earthquake news, Global Disaster watch, significant events | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

M4.4 Quake Strikes Near Beverly Hills, California

Posted by feww on March 18, 2014


Magnitude 4.4 earthquake rattles Los Angeles area

Centered at 34.135°N, 118.486°W, 10km (6mi) NW of Beverly Hills, California, the quake struck at a depth of 9.9km (6.1mi) on Monday March 17, 2014 at 13:25:36UTC.

The event was followed by a small aftershock measuring 2.6Mw, which occurred three minutes later.

Earthquake Details

Magnitude: 4.4Mw [USGS/EHP]
Event Time: 2014-03-17 at 13:25:36UTC
Location: 34.135°N 118.486°W depth=9.9km (6.1mi)
Nearby Cities:

  • 9km (6mi) NNW of Westwood, California
  • 10km (6mi) NW of Beverly Hills, California
  • 12km (7mi) W of Universal City, California
  • 12km (7mi) N of Santa Monica, California

Earthquake Location Map

LA Quakes 17mar2014
Earthquakes Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP

FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecasts for California

Due to the reasons explained previously on this blog, FIRE-EARTH Science Team has suspended its research on California seismicity.



Posted in Global Disaster watch, Significant Event Imagery, significant events | Tagged: , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

FIRE-EARTH Forecast: Large Earthquake Could Strike Peru-Chile Trench

Posted by feww on March 17, 2014


FEWW Earthquake Forecast for Chile

FIRE-EARTH Models show a large earthquake could strike along Peru-Chile Trench in the coming weeks.

Forecast Details

  • Magnitude: ≥8.2Mw
  • Location: 23.6°S, 70.8ºW
  • Depth: 30km
  • Time: March 17 – April 29, 2014
  • Probability of Occurrence: 75%

Posted in Global Disaster watch, significant events | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »

Magnitude 7.7 Quake Strikes Queen Charlotte Islands, Canada

Posted by feww on October 28, 2012

Earthquake Measuring 7.7 Mw Strikes Queen Charlotte Islands Region generating a tsunami

FIRE-EARTH Forecast: Mega Quake measuring at least 8.8Mw could strike the region in the coming weeks with a probability of 0.75.

The powerful quake struck off Canada’s Pacific coast at a depth of about 16 km generating a tsunami, which forced  the authorities in Hawaii to order more than 100,000 people evacuate the shorelines.

  • Dozens of aftershocks, including at least 10 shocks measuring ≥5.0Mw had occurred, as of posting.
  • A Geophysicist at Tsunami Warning Center said the tsunami had caught scientists by surprise, Reuters reported.
  • “We thought that the earthquake was on land and when we learned that it was deeper undersea and we gathered more information, we had no choice but to issue a warning,” he said.

Quake Details

Region: Queen Charlotte Islands
Time: 2012-10-28 03:04:09.7 UTC
Magnitude: 7.7 (Mw)
Epicenter: 52.59°N, 132.19°W
Depth: 16 km
Source: GEOFON

EQ Location Map. Source: GEOFON © Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences

The Largest Earthquake in Canada

Canada’s largest earthquake (magnitude 8.1) since 1700, occurred on August 22, 1949 off the coast of BC. It occurred on the Queen Charlotte Fault (Canada’s equivalent of the San Andreas Fault) – the boundary between the Pacific and North American plates that runs underwater along the west coast of the Queen Charlotte Islands off the west coast of British Columbia. The shaking was so severe on the Queen Charlotte Islands that cows were knocked off their feet, and a geologist with the Geological Survey of Canada working on the north end of Graham Island could not stand up. Chimneys toppled, and an oil tank at Cumshewa Inlet collapsed. In Terrace, on the adjacent mainland, cars were bounced around, and standing on the street was described as “like being on the heaving deck of a ship at sea”. In Prince Rupert, windows were shattered and buildings swayed. —Natural resources of Canada

Related Links:

Posted in Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2012, global earthquakes | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Deadly Earthquakes Destroy or Damage 20,000 Buildings in China

Posted by feww on September 7, 2012


[September 7, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. 

  • SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,286 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History…


Quakes rattle SW China killing dozens, injuring at least 150 and destroying or damaging 20,000 buildings

Earthquake cluster struck SW China’s Yunnan and Guizhou provinces causing many deaths, injuries and major damage to property, reports said.

The seismic pattern suggests a major earthquake could strike the region in the coming days – FIRE-EARTH Forecast

  • The largest quake in the cluster measured 5.7Mw, which was epicentered at 103.95°E,  27.53°N, striking at a depth of about 10km (@ 2012-09-07; 04:16:31.5 UTC), GEOFON Program reported.
  • The mainshock was followed by more than a dozen aftershocks, the largest of which measured 5.6Mw, as of posting.
  • “All the victims were from the city of Zhaotong, which administers Yiliang. Preliminary investigation showed that more than 20,000 houses were damaged or had collapsed in the quake, according to the official.” Xinhua reported.
  • “More than 100,000 people have been evacuated in Yunnan as of 3:10 p.m., said an official with the province’s civil affairs department.”

Related Links

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background


Posted in Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2012, global earthquakes | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »


Posted by feww on March 9, 2012

on November 19, 2011 FIRE-EARTH posted the following forecast:

Major Geological Events Forecast for Western U-S

Earlier today, MSNBC posted the following:

Quake catastrophe like Japan’s could hit Pacific Northwest, new data show

We won’t ask, what new data? However, note the researchers’ inappropriate use of the term “mirror image,” which they almost certainly borrowed from earlier FIRE-EARTH forecast [] but used it in the wrong context. Their slick prophecy about the time of occurrence, “it could be sooner rather than later,” is also mysteriously consistent with the above FIRE-EARTH forecast(i.e, short term). Though the researchers fail to say how they arrived at their conclusion or where it came from.

Quake catastrophe like Japan’s could hit Pacific Northwest, new data show

“It’s just like Japan, only a mirror image,” said Gerard Fryer, a geophysicist at the University of Hawaii and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.

“Where are we here? Are we close or are we not close?” he asked. “I think the suspicion is that it could be sooner rather than later.” [Based on what assumptions?]
Like Fryer, he called the Pacific Northwest trench a “mirror image” of the Japanese trench — except potentially even more dangerous.

“In this mirror image, one can see that if the same earthquake occurred in Cascadia, the fault would rupture to a significant distance inland, since the Cascadia trench sits much closer to the coastline than the trench off the coast of Japan,” Anderson said.


MAJOR GEOLOGICAL EPISODES that are likely to IMPACT THE ENTIRE WESTERN UNITED STATES, as forecast by FIRE-EARTH, will comprise a number of discrete events, including at least several ‘surprises.’

Readers who are in doubt about the originality of the research at Hawaii and Nevada universities, could put their minds at rest of course by emailing the two academics named in the MSNBC article and asking them for details of those events (e.g, type, sequence, scale, probability of occurrence…).

JAPAN Region Earthquake Forecast

In Japan Earthquake Forecast, posted on February 14, 2012, we said:

A Note to Seismologists at Tokyo University and Tohoku University, Japan



Staff at Research Center for Prediction of Earthquakes & Volcanic Eruptions, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University are strongly advised to focus on probability of the next major earthquake in China.

How could researchers from 4 different universities located on the opposite ends of Pacific Ocean, about 9,000km (5,500 miles) apart bluff their way in identical ways, fooling their respective taxpayers into believing they know their science? Is there a common link between Japan earthquake researchers, and their counterparts in Western U.S.?

Interestingly, it seems there is a solid link. Read the rest of MSNBC article Quake catastrophe like Japan’s could hit Pacific Northwest, new data show.

Related Links

  • WARNING: Many parts of the United States could become ‘unrecognizable’ due to extreme climatic, geophysical and geological episodes over the next 18 months: FIRE-EARTH Forecast

Posted in Global Disaster watch, global disasters | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

Tectonics Update – January 28

Posted by feww on January 28, 2012

Large Quake Measuring about 8.3Mw Could Strike Near Iwaki, Japan: FIRE-EARTH

FIRE-EARTH Models show a large earthquake measuring up to 8.3Mw could strike within a 50-km radius of Iwaki, Japan.

Forecast Details

  • Magnitude: Up to 8.3Mw
  • Position: 50km radius of Iwaki, Fukushima Prefecture, Japan
  • Probability of Occurrence
    • Feb – May 2012: 74% (Peak Occurrence: April 18, am JST)
    • Jun –  Nov 2012: 68%
    • Dec 2012 – Dec 2015 : ~ 50%
    • Jan – Apr 2016: >70%
  • Probability of Event occurring onshore: 60%

[NOTE: This forecast may be affected by other seismic events in the region.   For UPDATES see comments section below.]

Previous Forecasts

Related Links

Posted in Earthquake Warning, earthquake warning Honshu, Earthquakes, Megathrust earthquakes | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

FIRE-EARTH Forecast: Iceland Volcanic Activity

Posted by feww on June 17, 2011

Probability of Volcanic Activity in Iceland

Simulations of FIRE-EARTH Geophysical Model (EarthModel) show that a major volcanic eruption may occur in Iceland by October 2011 with a certainty of 0.7 [P= 72%]

For this forecast, EarthModel calculated about 12,000 variables using more than 200 trillion discrete computational steps in each simulation.

In the case of a previous forecast, The Next Icelandic Volcano Likely to Erupt, posted on April 22, 2010, the Model performed about 40 times as many steps.

FIRE-EARTH also employs other models including EARTH ENERGY MODEL (EEM), designed by EDRO, and several probabilistic and dynamic models.

The blog forecasts are based on deep knowledge of geophysics and very high level simulation of computer modeling.

A Note to Internet Prophets

If you are copying the results of FIRE-EARTH research, often  posted on the blog as incidental summaries, and representing them as that of your own using “mundane astrology,” or “psychic and para-normal abilities,” as a blogger recently put it, “to portend a significant period on earth of profound change,” then you would be acting disingenuously and maliciously.

By making false prophecies you would only contribute to compounding the human ignorance, albeit that of the gullible internet dwellers.

Most intelligent Internet users would instantly see through prophecies like: “The period between 2012 and 2016 will see drastic ‘readjustments’ as 7 transiting to transiting squares between Uranus in Aries and Pluto in Capricorn cause wide spread dislocations, famine, earthquakes, tornandoes, floods, volcanoes and a period of very dry weather; alternating between hot and cold.”

Please refrain from spreading ignorance on the Internet.

Posted in environment | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

New Zealand Region Earthquake Warning

Posted by feww on January 15, 2011

FIRE-EARTH Megaquake Forecast: Kermadec Islands Region/New Zealand Region

A megaquake measuring about 8.8Mw could strike Kermadec Islands Region/ New Zealand Region in 2011/2012 with a probability of 72%.

Related Links:

Posted in New Zealand earthquake, New Zealand earthquake forecast | Tagged: , , , , | 3 Comments »

M 7.4 Quake Strikes Japan Region

Posted by feww on December 21, 2010

Powerful Quake Strikes Japan’s Bonin Islands

Earthquake Location Map. Cross shows epicenter of the 7.4Mw quake, while the colored bubbles indicate the seismic intensity at various monitoring centers in Japan. Source: Japan’s Meteorological Agency (JMA). Image may be subject to copyright.

Tsunami Warning/Advisory

The 7.4Mw quake struck at a depth of 10km and created a tsunami which reached a height of about  3m (10 feet) in at least a dozen locations around Japan’s coastal areas

JMA said on its Website:

Tsunami Observations
As of 05:40 JST (UTC+ 9 hours)
At some parts of the coasts, tsunamis may be higher than those observed at the observation sites.
The tsunamis can become higher from now on.

However, JMA later downgraded the warning to a tsunami advisory for the area.

Tsunami Map for the 7.4Mw Bonin Islands Earthquake.
Source: Japan’s Meteorological Agency (JMA). Image may be subject to copyright. The tsunami reached a height of about 3m in at least 12 locations around Japan’s coastal areas.

Earthquake Details [JMA]

  • Magnitude: 7.4Mw [Reported as 7.5Mw by GFZ Potsdam – Earthquake Bulletin]
  • Date- Time 02:20 JST on 22 Dec 2010 a
  • Location: 27.5N 143.4E  Depth: 10km
  • Region: Chichijima Kinkai  [Bonin Islands, Japan Region]
  • Distances [USGS]
    • 150 km (95 miles) E of Chichi-shima, Bonin Islands, Japan
    • 335 km (210 miles) NE of Iwo Jima, Volcano Islands, Japan
    • 1050 km (650 miles) SSE of TOKYO, Japan


About 3 dozen strong aftershocks were reported, as of posting, the most significant of which measured 5.0Mw. Many more aftershocks may follow in the coming days and weeks.

FEWW Forecast

More powerful earthquakes, some related to this event, could strike Japan Region, much closer to the coastal areas.

On June 13, 2010, FIRE-EARTH forecast

Fire Earth Model shows that Japan region could be struck by up to 4 additional strong to large earthquakes possibly this year/early next year, one of which could be a catastrophic event.

Japan Earthquake Forecasts (FEWW)

Related Links:

Posted in Bonin Islands Earthquakes, Chichijima Kinkai, Japan earthquake forecast, Japan tsunami, Ogasawara Islands | Tagged: , , , , | 1 Comment »

Honshu Earthquake Warning

Posted by feww on November 10, 2010

Waves of Intense Seismic Activity Could Strike Eastern Honshu, Japan

The earthquakes could affect a wide region within 100 to 150 km radius of Tokyo Bay area.

Related Links:

Posted in Honshu, Japan, japan earthquake, Japan earthquake forecast | Tagged: , , , | 3 Comments »

Chile Earthquake and Tsunami Update 1 (28 Feb)

Posted by feww on February 28, 2010

Death Toll reaches 309 and Rising

8.8 Megaquake destroys houses, buildings, hospitals, bridges, roads and other structures

The Chile M8.8 quake released about 180 times more energy than the recent Haiti quake (estimated at 7.3Mw). Up to 70 medium to powerful aftershocks measuring M5.0 to M7.0 have been reported by USGS and other EQ monitoring centers

Chilean government has declared 6 regions as “zones of catastrophe,” but has made no formal request for international aid as yet.

Power and telephone lines are down throughout most of Chile making the flow of information extremely difficult [Other countries are advised to revise their communication systems]

  • Water lines are cut off in most parts of the country.
  • Many deaths are reported in Maule near the epicenter, as well as in the regions of  Araucania,  Biobio,  O’Higgins,  Santiago and Valparaiso, some of the places where powerful aftershocks occurred.
  • In Santiago, capital of Chile, at least a dozen large building have collapse killing more than 15 people (the death toll could rise).
  • About 200 people were caught inside an apartment block which collapsed  in the major city of Concepcion, the closest to the epicenter, and officials said they had no idea if anyone escaped, according to news reports.
  • A chemical plant near Santiago has caught fire forcing the authorities to evacuate several thousand people from the neighborhood.
  • Santiago International airport has been damaged and will be closed for at least a week.

Freeze frame from a local TV report shows  a building in Concepcion that caught fire as a result of the earthquake.

The international airport in Santiago, the Chilean capital, located about 320km (200 miles) north of the epicenter, was  closed as the megaquake caused damage to some roads and building facades.

A strong M6.3 aftershock in Salta, Argentina killed at least 2 people last night, officials said.

Rescue workers search for victims and survivors after an apartment complex collapsed during an earthquake in Concepcion some 100 km (62 miles) south of the epicenter, February 27, 2010.  Credit: REUTERS/Jose Luis Saavedra. Image may be subject to copyright. For more image images, click links in the Related Images section below.

The megaquake was the fifth-largest seismic event since 1900.   Chile was also the scene of the largest earthquake in the world  which measured 9.5Mw, which killed  1,655 people and injure 3,000 others, leaving about 2,000,000 homeless.

The tsunami generated by the 1960 quake  caused 61 deaths and $75 million damage in Hawaii [most of the damage occurred at Hilo, with the runup height reaching 10.6 m.] Several hundred other people in Japan and the Philippines were also killed or reported missing as a result of the destructive tsunami.

Collapsed highway Near Santiago.  Vehicles driving along a highway that collapsed during the megaquake were thrown on the road below on Saturday. Photo Credit:  Associated Press. Image may be subject to copyright. See FEWW Fair Use Notie.


Japan is bracing for a possible tsunami wave of 3m (10ft) or higher that could strike the Pacific coast of Hokkaido at about 13:00JST  (04:00 UTC).

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)Tsunami Forecast Map.  Image may be subject to copyright.

  • Major Tsunami is marked in RED: Tsunami height is expected to be 3 meters or higher.
  • Tsunami is marked in YELLOW: Tsunami height is expected to be up to 2 meters.
  • Tsunami Advisory: Tsunami height is expected to be about 0.5 meters.

Japanese government has ordered thousands of residents on coastal areas to evacuate to higher grounds.

A tsunami generated by the megaquake overwhelmed the port of Talcahuano, a major port in southern Chile, causing substantial damage to the harbor and the boats, and flooding streets.

A huge wave swept the Juan Fernandez islands, President Michelle Bachelet was reported as saying. The wave reportedly 7, with at least a dozen more islanders reported missing, according to a local officials.

Hawaii recorded tsunami surges of up to 12 inches about half an hour later than oceanographers had forecast, according to an official with the Hawaii County Civil Defense. Some officials had predicted that the waves would be as high as 4.8m (14 feet) despite the freely available tsunami ADVISORY reports.

In French Polynesia, a 1.8m (6 ft ) high wave swept ashore. As of posting,  there was no reports of casualties or damage. However,  casualties and damage will most probably occur.

A 1.7m was observed at Valparaiso, west of Santiago, and reports of more damage are expected.

In Australia, a tsunami wave measuring 50cm (1.6 feet) was reported off Norfolk Island, about 1,600 kilometers (1,000 miles ) northeast of Sydney.

On Chatham Islands, NZ officials reported a 2-meter high wave striking the coast. About a thousand people in the coastal cities of Gisborne and Napier in the  North Island were reportedly evacuated from low-lying areas.

In Tonga, there were reports of a 2.2-meter (6.6 feet) high wave sweeping an unnamed small northern island, an official said.

In the Philippines the officials said they were expecting a 1-meter high wave later this afternoon local time.

Socioeconomic Aftershocks

President Michelle Bachelet has said that two million Chileans have been affected by the Saturday’s Megaquake. Her estimate is realistic.

Thousands of people in Argentina may have also been affected.

10-degree Map Centered at 35°S,75°W (USGS)

Latest EQ Location map.
Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW

Fire-Earth Moderators believe that the geophysical prognosis doesn’t bode well for Chile, and a number of other countries, especially those  on the PRF,  for at least the next 3  years.

On January 2, Fire-Earth forecast 2010 Likely the Most Disastrous Year on Record. See also 2010 Disaster Calender- Year One of Human-Enhanced Disasters.

Related Links:

Related Images:

Posted in chile, chile earthquake, Megaquake, tsunami, tsunami damage | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments »

The Great Southern California ShakeOut

Posted by feww on February 21, 2010

Facilitating Corporate War Against Nature

‘Scientific Mandate’ Helps Corporment* Technicians Alienate Scared Audiences from Nature

In the same way “BERT DUCKS and Covers” helped to fan the flames of Cold War, the “Great Southern California Shakeout”  and its  “drop, cover and hold on” one-liner are engineering public alienation from nature on behalf of the Corporment.

The enemy has changed, from the old Cold war Adversary, Soviet Union, to Mother Nature, but the tried and tested mantra has remained the same: “Our lifestyle is not negotiable [sic.]”

The Corporment can’t afford having large numbers of people going around worrying about how to protect nature against their usual business.

*[Corporment = Government ruled by corporate interests]

Ever Heard of ‘Duck and Cover’?

Now, it’s:  “drop, cover and hold on”

And be sure to recite a prayer for the earthquake dead …

The following is a public information notice:

Great Southern California Shakeout results provide new communication strategies

Researchers who devised the largest earthquake preparedness event ever undertaken in the United States say one of the biggest challenges was translating devastation projections from a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 San Andreas Fault temblor into timely, usable information to the more than 5 million California participants in 2008.

Known as the Great Southern California Shakeout, the event was designed by more than 300 experts in fields including earth sciences, engineering, policy, economics and public health, said University of Colorado at Boulder Research Professor Keith Porter, who coordinated estimates of physical damages in the scenario. He said the interests of the scientists — including high-tech research and state-of-the-art projections — did not always coincide with concerns of the general public and emergency preparedness planners looking for timely, simple information on issues.

“One of the biggest challenges of the ShakeOut was to get scientists to speak the language of citizens,” said Porter of CU-Boulder’s civil, environmental and architectural engineering department. “While many researchers were concerned about advancing the state of science through different modeling scenarios and debate, the citizens made it clear to us they needed the big picture.”

Porter gave a presentation on the subject at the 2010 meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science held Feb. 18-22 in San Diego. Porter’s talk was part of a session titled “Earthquake Science and Advocacy: Helping Californians Live Along the San Andreas Fault.” The Great Southern California ShakeOut event was led by the U.S. Geological Survey.

Pushing the limits of science, including efforts like the ShakeOut, almost invariably creates a lack of consensus among scientists that can cause confusion in the public sector leading to “ambiguity aversion” — a preference by people to deal with known risks and to avoid dealing with risks where there is significant disagreement about the level of uncertainty, said Porter. “We found these people needed a single, discreet, story, which led us to explore and present what we thought was a single, realistic outcome of the hypothetical earthquake, as opposed to a discussion of possible outcomes.”

The 2008 ShakeOut scenario and a follow-up 2009 ShakeOut exercise involving more than 5 million Californians participating in “drop, cover and hold on” earthquake drills and other family, school and organizational emergency plans were huge successes, causing the USGS and collaborators to make the ShakeOut an annual event, Porter said. “Our hope is the activities undertaken by participants will become second nature,” he said. “In a sense it is similar to people taking CPR courses annually to keep up to speed.”

The USGS team that created the ShakeOut is now creating an emergency preparedness scenario known as ARkStorm to simulate the outcome of a series of massive West Coast storms similar to those that pounded California in 1861 and 1862. Those storms lasted for 45 days, flooded vast areas of northern and southern California, submerged a swath of the Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys 300 miles long and up to 60 miles wide and inundated large areas of Los Angeles and Orange counties.

Such storms draw heat and moisture from the tropical Pacific Ocean, forming “atmospheric rivers” that cause damage on the same scale of earthquakes and are projected to become more intense as a result of climate change, said Porter. Porter is leading the ARkStorm team that is assessing the potential outcome from such a storm in terms of physical damages, repair costs and the restoration time for buildings, dams, levees, harbors, bridges, roads, water supply systems and electric power.

Contact: Keith Porter
University of Colorado at Boulder

YOU can be smart like Bert, but you need a shelter on your back, too!

Skeptics could order their own personal earthquake-proof shelter from the nearest branch of [name and address withheld :)]

Brewster Body Armor offers some protection, but is more mobile than the mobile shelter! Source: Flickr

Mobile Shelter. Be sure to duck your head down and under the shelter when the earthquake strikes! Source: Flickr

And there’s protection for your pooch, too … Source: Flickr

Related Links:

Posted in earthquake drill, Sacramento, San Andreas Fault, San Joaquin, U.S. Geological Survey | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Strong Quake Strikes Cayman Islands Region

Posted by feww on January 20, 2010

Earthquake Measuring up to 6.1 Mw Strikes Near Cayman Islands

Strong earthquake measuring up to M6.1 struck offshore near Cayman Islands about 70 km (45 miles) ESE of George Town,  Cayman Islands and about 880 km WNW of the powerful earthquake that devastated Port-au-Prince 8 days ago. The quake struck at a depth of about 10km on January 19, 2010 at 14:24 UTC.

Tsunami Report

There were no report of a tsunami in the area caused by this event.

Damage Report

The earthquake reportedly shook buildings in George town but there was no report of damage or injuries.

Previous Quakes

Grand Cayman was struck by a 6.8 Mw earthquake on December 14, 2004, three months after Hurricane Ivan had already raked the island. However, the quake caused only minor structural damage to some buildings.

FEWW Earthquake Forecast:

The Gonave Microplate, near the boundaries of which this earthquake occurred, could produce more seismicity in 2010, with possibly another powerful quake measuring 7.4 to 7.6Mw striking its southern boundary.  Kingston, Jamaica could experience a powerful quake with a probability of 65 percent.

10-degree Map Centered at 20°N,80°W

Earthquake Location map.
Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW. (Click Images to enlarge).

Seismic Hazard Map showing the west side  end of
the Gonave Microplate. USGS/EHP. Click image to enlarge.

Seismic Hazard Map of Haiti Region showing the east side of the Gonave Microplate, which is sandwiched between the North American and the Caribbean Plates .Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW. Click image to enlarge.

Earthquake Details

  • Magnitude: 5.8 [EQ magnitude estimated by FEWW: 6.1 Mw – USGS/EHP routinely downgrades earthquakes by about 0.3 Mw]
  • Date-Time:
    • Tuesday, January 19, 2010 at 14:23:38 UTC
    • Tuesday, January 19, 2010 at 09:23:38 AM at epicenter
  • Location: 19.020°N, 80.779°W
  • Depth: 10 km (6.2 miles)
  • Distances:
    • 70 km (45 miles) ESE of GEORGE TOWN, Cayman Islands
    • 305 km (190 miles) WNW of Montego Bay, Jamaica
    • 345 km (215 miles) S of Cienfuegos, Cuba
    • 750 km (465 miles) S of Miami, Florida
    • 880 km WNW of the powerful earthquake that devastated Port-au-Prince on January 12, 2010
  • Location Uncertainty:  horizontal +/- 4.2 km (2.6 miles); depth fixed by location program
  • Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
  • Event ID: us2010rrbc

Related Links:

Posted in Cayman Islands quake, Cienfuegos, eathquakes, George Town earthquake, Haiti earthquake, Montego Bay | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »