Posts Tagged ‘earthquake forecast’
Posted by feww on May 29, 2015
FIRE-EARTH EARTHQUAKE FORECAST
Major Earthquake measuring up to 8.8Mw could strike Alaska Peninsula
FIRE-EARTH Models show a mega earthquake measuring up to magnitude 8.8Mw could strike Alaska Peninsula between now and June 2015 with a probability of 0.7.
Time: May – June 2015
Region: Alaska Peninsula
Posted in News Alert | Tagged: Alaska, Alaska Earthquake forecast, Alaska Peninsula, earthquake forecast, FIRE-EARTH earthquake FORECAST | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on May 13, 2015
FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecast for Nepal Region
FIRE-EARTH Science Team has prepared its earthquake forecast for Nepal region.
The forecast will not be made public, but would be provided to the appropriate Nepalese officials at no cost, if requested.
Details of any communication between the parties shall remain strictly confidential.
Posted in News Alert | Tagged: earthquake, earthquake forecast, Earthquake Forecast for Nepal, FIRE-EARTH earthquake FORECAST, nepal | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on December 7, 2014
HEIGHTENED GLOBAL SEISMICITY
SCENARIOS: 704, 703, 700, [500,] 09, 08, 07, 02
M6.8 Strikes Papua New Guinea (PNG)
Centered at 6.537°S, 154.455°E the quake occurred at a depth of 10.0km (6.2mi), said USGS/EHP.
Event Time: 2014-12-07 01:22:00 UTC
Location: 6.537°S 154.455°E depth=10.0km (6.2mi)
- 116km (72mi) WSW of Panguna, PNG
- 124km (77mi) WSW of Arawa, PNG
- 685km (426mi) WNW of Honiara, Solomon Islands
The quake did not generate a destructive tsunami.
At least 4 significant aftershocks, one measuring 5.7Mw followed the quake as of posting.
M6.0 strikes near Punta de Burica, Panama
Magnitude: 6.0Mw [USGS/EHP]
Event Time: 2014-12-06 17:21:49 UTC
Location: 8.013°N 82.703°W depth=14.0km (8.7mi)
- 18km (11mi) E of Punta de Burica, Panama
- 34km (21mi) SSE of Puerto Armuelles, Panama
- 49km (30mi) SW of Pedregal, Panama
- 54km (34mi) SSW of David, Panama
- 261km (162mi) SE of San Jose, Costa Rica
Deadly Earthquake Strikes Yunnan Province, China
A deadly earthquake measuring magnitude 5.8 struck Jinggu County in southwest China’s Yunnan province on Saturday, killing at least one person and leaving 15 others injured, reported the official Xinhua news.
The quake was centered at 23.3N, 100.5E striking at a depth of 9km, the China Earthquake Networks Center said.
IMPORTANT NOTICE: FIRE-EARTH EQ Forecast
For detailed FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecasts tune into Fire-Earth Reports daily @ 06:32UTC.
Posted in earthquake report | Tagged: 7 December 2014, China, earthquake forecast, FIRE-EARTH FORECAST, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Significant Earthquake | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on April 3, 2014
WARNING: NEW EARTHQUAKE FORECAST
MEGA EARTHQUAKE IN PERU-CHILE TRENCH
WARNING: MEGA EARTHQUAKE FORECAST
FIRE-EARTH Models show a MEGA EARTHQUAKE could strike along Peru-Chile Trench in the next three weeks.
FIRE-EARTH FORECAST: Magnitude 9.4Mw Could Strike Peru-Chile Trench in the next three weeks with a probability of 54%.
See below for details:
Forecast Earthquake Details
Magnitude: 9.4Mw (Provisional )
Provisional Location: 17.8°S, 72.1°W (Provisional )
Provisional Depth: 12 km (Provisional )
Date/Time: April 3 – April 30 2014
Probability: 54% (provisional)
Large, destructive tsunami waves HIGHLY PROBABLE.
1. FIRE-EARTH Models used for the above forecast are unique, proprietary tools owned by the blog’s science team. There are NO similar models anywhere on this planet. Any earthquake forecasts that go beyond the traditional “menstruation cycles” are “scholarly” forgeries, plagiarizing our research.
2. The forecast is subject to change, or withdrawal.
3. See also DISCLAIMER posted HERE.
Previous FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecast for Chile
On March 17, 2014, FIRE-EARTH posted an Earthquake Forecast for Chile, which was immediately hacked. The update was posted at Another Significant Aftershock Strikes Coastal Chile, on the same day, which stated:
FIRE-EARTH Models show a large earthquake could strike along Peru-Chile Trench in the coming weeks.
Tsunami Forecast: Large tsunami waves highly probable.
- Magnitude: ≥8.2Mw
- Location: 23.6°S, 70.8ºW
- Depth: 30km
- Time: March 17 – April 29, 2014
- Probability of Occurrence: 0.75
- Total Earthquake Energy for the Episode ≥ 0.25EJ
FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecasts for California and Japan
Due to the reasons explained previously on this blog, FIRE-EARTH Science Team has suspended its research on California and Japan seismicity.
Posted in earthquake forecast, Earthquake news, Global Disaster watch, significant events | Tagged: chile earthquake, earthquake forecast, earthquake warning, FIRE-EARTH earthquake FORECAST, mega earthquake, peru earthquake, Peru-Chile Trench, Tsunami Forecast | 1 Comment »
Posted by feww on March 18, 2014
Magnitude 4.4 earthquake rattles Los Angeles area
Centered at 34.135°N, 118.486°W, 10km (6mi) NW of Beverly Hills, California, the quake struck at a depth of 9.9km (6.1mi) on Monday March 17, 2014 at 13:25:36UTC.
The event was followed by a small aftershock measuring 2.6Mw, which occurred three minutes later.
Magnitude: 4.4Mw [USGS/EHP]
Event Time: 2014-03-17 at 13:25:36UTC
Location: 34.135°N 118.486°W depth=9.9km (6.1mi)
- 9km (6mi) NNW of Westwood, California
- 10km (6mi) NW of Beverly Hills, California
- 12km (7mi) W of Universal City, California
- 12km (7mi) N of Santa Monica, California
Earthquake Location Map
Earthquakes Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP
FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecasts for California
Due to the reasons explained previously on this blog, FIRE-EARTH Science Team has suspended its research on California seismicity.
Posted in Global Disaster watch, Significant Event Imagery, significant events | Tagged: Beverly Hills, California earthquake, earthquake 2014, earthquake forecast, FIRE-EARTH earthquake FORECAST, Seismic Hazard, U.S. Earthquakes, Westwood | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on March 17, 2014
FEWW Earthquake Forecast for Chile
FIRE-EARTH Models show a large earthquake could strike along Peru-Chile Trench in the coming weeks.
- Magnitude: ≥8.2Mw
- Location: 23.6°S, 70.8ºW
- Depth: 30km
- Time: March 17 – April 29, 2014
- Probability of Occurrence: 75%
Posted in Global Disaster watch, significant events | Tagged: earthquake forecast, feww earthquake forecast, FIRE-EARTH FORECAST, Peru-Chile Trench | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on October 28, 2012
Earthquake Measuring 7.7 Mw Strikes Queen Charlotte Islands Region generating a tsunami
FIRE-EARTH Forecast: Mega Quake measuring at least 8.8Mw could strike the region in the coming weeks with a probability of 0.75.
The powerful quake struck off Canada’s Pacific coast at a depth of about 16 km generating a tsunami, which forced the authorities in Hawaii to order more than 100,000 people evacuate the shorelines.
- Dozens of aftershocks, including at least 10 shocks measuring ≥5.0Mw had occurred, as of posting.
- A Geophysicist at Tsunami Warning Center said the tsunami had caught scientists by surprise, Reuters reported.
- “We thought that the earthquake was on land and when we learned that it was deeper undersea and we gathered more information, we had no choice but to issue a warning,” he said.
Region: Queen Charlotte Islands
Time: 2012-10-28 03:04:09.7 UTC
Magnitude: 7.7 (Mw)
Epicenter: 52.59°N, 132.19°W
Depth: 16 km
EQ Location Map. Source: GEOFON © Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
The Largest Earthquake in Canada
Canada’s largest earthquake (magnitude 8.1) since 1700, occurred on August 22, 1949 off the coast of BC. It occurred on the Queen Charlotte Fault (Canada’s equivalent of the San Andreas Fault) – the boundary between the Pacific and North American plates that runs underwater along the west coast of the Queen Charlotte Islands off the west coast of British Columbia. The shaking was so severe on the Queen Charlotte Islands that cows were knocked off their feet, and a geologist with the Geological Survey of Canada working on the north end of Graham Island could not stand up. Chimneys toppled, and an oil tank at Cumshewa Inlet collapsed. In Terrace, on the adjacent mainland, cars were bounced around, and standing on the street was described as “like being on the heaving deck of a ship at sea”. In Prince Rupert, windows were shattered and buildings swayed. —Natural resources of Canada
Posted in Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2012, global earthquakes | Tagged: British Columbia, Canada Earthquake, CANADA QUAKE, earthquake, earthquake forecast, Earthquakes, feww earthquake forecast, Lady Douglas, Port Hardy, Prince Rupert, Queen Charlotte Fault, Queen Charlotte Islands, Queen Charlotte quake, seismic activity report, tsunami, Vancouver | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on September 7, 2012
DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,286 Days Left
[September 7, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.
SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,286 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History…
Quakes rattle SW China killing dozens, injuring at least 150 and destroying or damaging 20,000 buildings
Earthquake cluster struck SW China’s Yunnan and Guizhou provinces causing many deaths, injuries and major damage to property, reports said.
The seismic pattern suggests a major earthquake could strike the region in the coming days – FIRE-EARTH Forecast
- The largest quake in the cluster measured 5.7Mw, which was epicentered at 103.95°E, 27.53°N, striking at a depth of about 10km (@ 2012-09-07; 04:16:31.5 UTC), GEOFON Program reported.
- The mainshock was followed by more than a dozen aftershocks, the largest of which measured 5.6Mw, as of posting.
- “All the victims were from the city of Zhaotong, which administers Yiliang. Preliminary investigation showed that more than 20,000 houses were damaged or had collapsed in the quake, according to the official.” Xinhua reported.
- “More than 100,000 people have been evacuated in Yunnan as of 3:10 p.m., said an official with the province’s civil affairs department.”
Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background
Posted in Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2012, global earthquakes | Tagged: china earthquake forecast, China quake, Deadly China Quake, earthquake, earthquake forecast, FIRE-EARTH FORECAST, Guizhou, Yunnan, Zhaotong | 1 Comment »
Posted by feww on March 9, 2012
on November 19, 2011 FIRE-EARTH posted the following forecast:
Earlier today, MSNBC posted the following:
We won’t ask, what new data? However, note the researchers’ inappropriate use of the term “mirror image,” which they almost certainly borrowed from earlier FIRE-EARTH forecast [https://feww.wordpress.com/2009/08/19/new-round-of-geo-assualt/] but used it in the wrong context. Their slick prophecy about the time of occurrence, “it could be sooner rather than later,” is also mysteriously consistent with the above FIRE-EARTH forecast(i.e, short term). Though the researchers fail to say how they arrived at their conclusion or where it came from.
Quake catastrophe like Japan’s could hit Pacific Northwest, new data show
“It’s just like Japan, only a mirror image,” said Gerard Fryer, a geophysicist at the University of Hawaii and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.
“Where are we here? Are we close or are we not close?” he asked. “I think the suspicion is that it could be sooner rather than later.” [Based on what assumptions?]
Like Fryer, he called the Pacific Northwest trench a “mirror image” of the Japanese trench — except potentially even more dangerous.
“In this mirror image, one can see that if the same earthquake occurred in Cascadia, the fault would rupture to a significant distance inland, since the Cascadia trench sits much closer to the coastline than the trench off the coast of Japan,” Anderson said.
NOTHING SACRED in SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY
MAJOR GEOLOGICAL EPISODES that are likely to IMPACT THE ENTIRE WESTERN UNITED STATES, as forecast by FIRE-EARTH, will comprise a number of discrete events, including at least several ‘surprises.’
Readers who are in doubt about the originality of the research at Hawaii and Nevada universities, could put their minds at rest of course by emailing the two academics named in the MSNBC article and asking them for details of those events (e.g, type, sequence, scale, probability of occurrence…).
JAPAN Region Earthquake Forecast
In Japan Earthquake Forecast, posted on February 14, 2012, we said:
A Note to Seismologists at Tokyo University and Tohoku University, Japan
FIRE-EARTH MODERATORS STRONGLY URGE YOU TO PRODUCE ORIGINAL RESEARCH AND REFRAIN FROM PIGGYBACK RIDING ON OUR FORECASTS.
ONCE AGAIN, YOU HAVE MADE US EXTREMELY RELUCTANT TO POST ANY FUTURE EARTHQUAKE FORECAST.
Staff at Research Center for Prediction of Earthquakes & Volcanic Eruptions, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University are strongly advised to focus on probability of the next major earthquake in China.
How could researchers from 4 different universities located on the opposite ends of Pacific Ocean, about 9,000km (5,500 miles) apart bluff their way in identical ways, fooling their respective taxpayers into believing they know their science? Is there a common link between Japan earthquake researchers, and their counterparts in Western U.S.?
Interestingly, it seems there is a solid link. Read the rest of MSNBC article Quake catastrophe like Japan’s could hit Pacific Northwest, new data show.
WARNING: Many parts of the United States could become ‘unrecognizable’ due to extreme climatic, geophysical and geological episodes over the next 18 months: FIRE-EARTH Forecast
Posted in Global Disaster watch, global disasters | Tagged: Cascadia trench, earthquake forecast, Earthquakes, eastern Pacific, extreme climatic events, extreme geological episodes, extreme geophysical episodes, FIRE-EARTH earthquake FORECAST, FIRE-EARTH FORECAST, GEOLOGICAL Activity, Geological Events Western US, japan earthquake forecast, Japan Megaquake, JAPAN Region Earthquake Forecast, MAJOR GEOLOGICAL EPISODES, Mechanism for Mega Disasters, Mega Disasters, Quake catastrophe like Japan’s could hit Pacific Northwest, US earthquakes, US volcanoes | 5 Comments »
Posted by feww on January 28, 2012
Large Quake Measuring about 8.3Mw Could Strike Near Iwaki, Japan: FIRE-EARTH
FIRE-EARTH Models show a large earthquake measuring up to 8.3Mw could strike within a 50-km radius of Iwaki, Japan.
- Magnitude: Up to 8.3Mw
- Position: 50km radius of Iwaki, Fukushima Prefecture, Japan
- Probability of Occurrence
- Feb – May 2012: 74% (Peak Occurrence: April 18, am JST)
- Jun – Nov 2012: 68%
- Dec 2012 – Dec 2015 : ~ 50%
- Jan – Apr 2016: >70%
- Probability of Event occurring onshore: 60%
[NOTE: This forecast may be affected by other seismic events in the region. For UPDATES see comments section below.]
Posted in Earthquake Warning, earthquake warning Honshu, Earthquakes, Megathrust earthquakes | Tagged: disasters 2012, earthquake, earthquake forecast, Fukushima quake forecast, Iwaki earthquake forecast, japan earthquake forecast, Japan quake, JPTRMT1, Tectonics Update | 1 Comment »
Posted by feww on June 17, 2011
Probability of Volcanic Activity in Iceland
Simulations of FIRE-EARTH Geophysical Model (EarthModel) show that a major volcanic eruption may occur in Iceland by October 2011 with a certainty of 0.7 [P= 72%]
For this forecast, EarthModel calculated about 12,000 variables using more than 200 trillion discrete computational steps in each simulation.
In the case of a previous forecast, The Next Icelandic Volcano Likely to Erupt, posted on April 22, 2010, the Model performed about 40 times as many steps.
FIRE-EARTH also employs other models including EARTH ENERGY MODEL (EEM), designed by EDRO, and several probabilistic and dynamic models.
The blog forecasts are based on deep knowledge of geophysics and very high level simulation of computer modeling.
A Note to Internet Prophets
If you are copying the results of FIRE-EARTH research, often posted on the blog as incidental summaries, and representing them as that of your own using “mundane astrology,” or “psychic and para-normal abilities,” as a blogger recently put it, “to portend a significant period on earth of profound change,” then you would be acting disingenuously and maliciously.
By making false prophecies you would only contribute to compounding the human ignorance, albeit that of the gullible internet dwellers.
Most intelligent Internet users would instantly see through prophecies like: “The period between 2012 and 2016 will see drastic ‘readjustments’ as 7 transiting to transiting squares between Uranus in Aries and Pluto in Capricorn cause wide spread dislocations, famine, earthquakes, tornandoes, floods, volcanoes and a period of very dry weather; alternating between hot and cold.”
Please refrain from spreading ignorance on the Internet.
Posted in environment | Tagged: astrology, computer modeling, earthquake forecast, FIRE-EARTH FORECAST, FIRE-EARTH Volcano Forecast, Geophysics, Iceland Volcanic Activity, para-normal, psychic | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on January 15, 2011
FIRE-EARTH Megaquake Forecast: Kermadec Islands Region/New Zealand Region
A megaquake measuring about 8.8Mw could strike Kermadec Islands Region/ New Zealand Region in 2011/2012 with a probability of 72%.
Posted in New Zealand earthquake, New Zealand earthquake forecast | Tagged: earthquake forecast, feww earthquake forecast, Kermadec Islands Region, megaquake forecast, New Zealand Region | 3 Comments »
Posted by feww on December 21, 2010
Powerful Quake Strikes Japan’s Bonin Islands
Earthquake Location Map. Cross shows epicenter of the 7.4Mw quake, while the colored bubbles indicate the seismic intensity at various monitoring centers in Japan. Source: Japan’s Meteorological Agency (JMA). Image may be subject to copyright.
The 7.4Mw quake struck at a depth of 10km and created a tsunami which reached a height of about 3m (10 feet) in at least a dozen locations around Japan’s coastal areas
JMA said on its Website:
As of 05:40 JST (UTC+ 9 hours)
At some parts of the coasts, tsunamis may be higher than those observed at the observation sites.
The tsunamis can become higher from now on.
However, JMA later downgraded the warning to a tsunami advisory for the area.
Tsunami Map for the 7.4Mw Bonin Islands Earthquake. Source: Japan’s Meteorological Agency (JMA). Image may be subject to copyright. The tsunami reached a height of about 3m in at least 12 locations around Japan’s coastal areas.
Earthquake Details [JMA]
- Magnitude: 7.4Mw [Reported as 7.5Mw by GFZ Potsdam – Earthquake Bulletin]
- Date- Time 02:20 JST on 22 Dec 2010 a
- Location: 27.5N 143.4E Depth: 10km
- Region: Chichijima Kinkai [Bonin Islands, Japan Region]
- Distances [USGS]
- 150 km (95 miles) E of Chichi-shima, Bonin Islands, Japan
- 335 km (210 miles) NE of Iwo Jima, Volcano Islands, Japan
- 1050 km (650 miles) SSE of TOKYO, Japan
About 3 dozen strong aftershocks were reported, as of posting, the most significant of which measured 5.0Mw. Many more aftershocks may follow in the coming days and weeks.
More powerful earthquakes, some related to this event, could strike Japan Region, much closer to the coastal areas.
On June 13, 2010, FIRE-EARTH forecast
Fire Earth Model shows that Japan region could be struck by up to 4 additional strong to large earthquakes possibly this year/early next year, one of which could be a catastrophic event.
Japan Earthquake Forecasts (FEWW)
Posted in Bonin Islands Earthquakes, Chichijima Kinkai, Japan earthquake forecast, Japan tsunami, Ogasawara Islands | Tagged: Bonin Islands, earthquake forecast, japan earthquake, Japan quake, Tokyo Earthquake Forecast | 1 Comment »
Posted by feww on November 10, 2010
Waves of Intense Seismic Activity Could Strike Eastern Honshu, Japan
The earthquakes could affect a wide region within 100 to 150 km radius of Tokyo Bay area.
Posted in Honshu, Japan, japan earthquake, Japan earthquake forecast | Tagged: earthquake forecast, Honshu Earthquake Warning, Tokyo Bay earthquake, Tokyo Earthquake Forecast | 3 Comments »
Posted by feww on February 28, 2010
Death Toll reaches 309 and Rising
8.8 Megaquake destroys houses, buildings, hospitals, bridges, roads and other structures
The Chile M8.8 quake released about 180 times more energy than the recent Haiti quake (estimated at 7.3Mw). Up to 70 medium to powerful aftershocks measuring M5.0 to M7.0 have been reported by USGS and other EQ monitoring centers
Chilean government has declared 6 regions as “zones of catastrophe,” but has made no formal request for international aid as yet.
Power and telephone lines are down throughout most of Chile making the flow of information extremely difficult [Other countries are advised to revise their communication systems]
- Water lines are cut off in most parts of the country.
- Many deaths are reported in Maule near the epicenter, as well as in the regions of Araucania, Biobio, O’Higgins, Santiago and Valparaiso, some of the places where powerful aftershocks occurred.
- In Santiago, capital of Chile, at least a dozen large building have collapse killing more than 15 people (the death toll could rise).
- About 200 people were caught inside an apartment block which collapsed in the major city of Concepcion, the closest to the epicenter, and officials said they had no idea if anyone escaped, according to news reports.
- A chemical plant near Santiago has caught fire forcing the authorities to evacuate several thousand people from the neighborhood.
- Santiago International airport has been damaged and will be closed for at least a week.
Freeze frame from a local TV report shows a building in Concepcion that caught fire as a result of the earthquake.
The international airport in Santiago, the Chilean capital, located about 320km (200 miles) north of the epicenter, was closed as the megaquake caused damage to some roads and building facades.
A strong M6.3 aftershock in Salta, Argentina killed at least 2 people last night, officials said.
Rescue workers search for victims and survivors after an apartment complex collapsed during an earthquake in Concepcion some 100 km (62 miles) south of the epicenter, February 27, 2010. Credit: REUTERS/Jose Luis Saavedra. Image may be subject to copyright. For more image images, click links in the Related Images section below.
The megaquake was the fifth-largest seismic event since 1900. Chile was also the scene of the largest earthquake in the world which measured 9.5Mw, which killed 1,655 people and injure 3,000 others, leaving about 2,000,000 homeless.
The tsunami generated by the 1960 quake caused 61 deaths and $75 million damage in Hawaii [most of the damage occurred at Hilo, with the runup height reaching 10.6 m.] Several hundred other people in Japan and the Philippines were also killed or reported missing as a result of the destructive tsunami.
Collapsed highway Near Santiago. Vehicles driving along a highway that collapsed during the megaquake were thrown on the road below on Saturday. Photo Credit: Associated Press. Image may be subject to copyright. See FEWW Fair Use Notie.
Japan is bracing for a possible tsunami wave of 3m (10ft) or higher that could strike the Pacific coast of Hokkaido at about 13:00JST (04:00 UTC).
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)Tsunami Forecast Map. Image may be subject to copyright.
- Major Tsunami is marked in RED: Tsunami height is expected to be 3 meters or higher.
- Tsunami is marked in YELLOW: Tsunami height is expected to be up to 2 meters.
- Tsunami Advisory: Tsunami height is expected to be about 0.5 meters.
Japanese government has ordered thousands of residents on coastal areas to evacuate to higher grounds.
A tsunami generated by the megaquake overwhelmed the port of Talcahuano, a major port in southern Chile, causing substantial damage to the harbor and the boats, and flooding streets.
A huge wave swept the Juan Fernandez islands, President Michelle Bachelet was reported as saying. The wave reportedly 7, with at least a dozen more islanders reported missing, according to a local officials.
Hawaii recorded tsunami surges of up to 12 inches about half an hour later than oceanographers had forecast, according to an official with the Hawaii County Civil Defense. Some officials had predicted that the waves would be as high as 4.8m (14 feet) despite the freely available tsunami ADVISORY reports.
In French Polynesia, a 1.8m (6 ft ) high wave swept ashore. As of posting, there was no reports of casualties or damage. However, casualties and damage will most probably occur.
A 1.7m was observed at Valparaiso, west of Santiago, and reports of more damage are expected.
In Australia, a tsunami wave measuring 50cm (1.6 feet) was reported off Norfolk Island, about 1,600 kilometers (1,000 miles ) northeast of Sydney.
On Chatham Islands, NZ officials reported a 2-meter high wave striking the coast. About a thousand people in the coastal cities of Gisborne and Napier in the North Island were reportedly evacuated from low-lying areas.
In Tonga, there were reports of a 2.2-meter (6.6 feet) high wave sweeping an unnamed small northern island, an official said.
In the Philippines the officials said they were expecting a 1-meter high wave later this afternoon local time.
President Michelle Bachelet has said that two million Chileans have been affected by the Saturday’s Megaquake. Her estimate is realistic.
Thousands of people in Argentina may have also been affected.
10-degree Map Centered at 35°S,75°W (USGS)
Latest EQ Location map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW
Fire-Earth Moderators believe that the geophysical prognosis doesn’t bode well for Chile, and a number of other countries, especially those on the PRF, for at least the next 3 years.
On January 2, Fire-Earth forecast 2010 Likely the Most Disastrous Year on Record. See also 2010 Disaster Calender- Year One of Human-Enhanced Disasters.
Posted in chile, chile earthquake, Megaquake, tsunami, tsunami damage | Tagged: Argentina quake, chile earthquake, Concepción, concepcion chile, earthquake, earthquake forecast, Hokkaido tsunami, japan tsunami, map of chile, SANTIAGO quake, Talca quake, tsunami update | 7 Comments »
Posted by feww on February 21, 2010
‘Scientific Mandate’ Helps Corporment* Technicians Alienate Scared Audiences from Nature
In the same way “BERT DUCKS and Covers” helped to fan the flames of Cold War, the “Great Southern California Shakeout” and its “drop, cover and hold on” one-liner are engineering public alienation from nature on behalf of the Corporment.
The enemy has changed, from the old Cold war Adversary, Soviet Union, to Mother Nature, but the tried and tested mantra has remained the same: “Our lifestyle is not negotiable [sic.]”
The Corporment can’t afford having large numbers of people going around worrying about how to protect nature against their usual business.
*[Corporment = Government ruled by corporate interests]
Ever Heard of ‘Duck and Cover’?
Now, it’s: “drop, cover and hold on”
And be sure to recite a prayer for the earthquake dead …
The following is a public information notice:
Great Southern California Shakeout results provide new communication strategies
Researchers who devised the largest earthquake preparedness event ever undertaken in the United States say one of the biggest challenges was translating devastation projections from a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 San Andreas Fault temblor into timely, usable information to the more than 5 million California participants in 2008.
Known as the Great Southern California Shakeout, the event was designed by more than 300 experts in fields including earth sciences, engineering, policy, economics and public health, said University of Colorado at Boulder Research Professor Keith Porter, who coordinated estimates of physical damages in the scenario. He said the interests of the scientists — including high-tech research and state-of-the-art projections — did not always coincide with concerns of the general public and emergency preparedness planners looking for timely, simple information on issues.
“One of the biggest challenges of the ShakeOut was to get scientists to speak the language of citizens,” said Porter of CU-Boulder’s civil, environmental and architectural engineering department. “While many researchers were concerned about advancing the state of science through different modeling scenarios and debate, the citizens made it clear to us they needed the big picture.”
Porter gave a presentation on the subject at the 2010 meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science held Feb. 18-22 in San Diego. Porter’s talk was part of a session titled “Earthquake Science and Advocacy: Helping Californians Live Along the San Andreas Fault.” The Great Southern California ShakeOut event was led by the U.S. Geological Survey.
Pushing the limits of science, including efforts like the ShakeOut, almost invariably creates a lack of consensus among scientists that can cause confusion in the public sector leading to “ambiguity aversion” — a preference by people to deal with known risks and to avoid dealing with risks where there is significant disagreement about the level of uncertainty, said Porter. “We found these people needed a single, discreet, story, which led us to explore and present what we thought was a single, realistic outcome of the hypothetical earthquake, as opposed to a discussion of possible outcomes.”
The 2008 ShakeOut scenario and a follow-up 2009 ShakeOut exercise involving more than 5 million Californians participating in “drop, cover and hold on” earthquake drills and other family, school and organizational emergency plans were huge successes, causing the USGS and collaborators to make the ShakeOut an annual event, Porter said. “Our hope is the activities undertaken by participants will become second nature,” he said. “In a sense it is similar to people taking CPR courses annually to keep up to speed.”
The USGS team that created the ShakeOut is now creating an emergency preparedness scenario known as ARkStorm to simulate the outcome of a series of massive West Coast storms similar to those that pounded California in 1861 and 1862. Those storms lasted for 45 days, flooded vast areas of northern and southern California, submerged a swath of the Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys 300 miles long and up to 60 miles wide and inundated large areas of Los Angeles and Orange counties.
Such storms draw heat and moisture from the tropical Pacific Ocean, forming “atmospheric rivers” that cause damage on the same scale of earthquakes and are projected to become more intense as a result of climate change, said Porter. Porter is leading the ARkStorm team that is assessing the potential outcome from such a storm in terms of physical damages, repair costs and the restoration time for buildings, dams, levees, harbors, bridges, roads, water supply systems and electric power.
Contact: Keith Porter
University of Colorado at Boulder
YOU can be smart like Bert, but you need a shelter on your back, too!
Skeptics could order their own personal earthquake-proof shelter from the nearest branch of [name and address withheld :)]
Brewster Body Armor offers some protection, but is more mobile than the mobile shelter! Source: Flickr
Mobile Shelter. Be sure to duck your head down and under the shelter when the earthquake strikes! Source: Flickr
And there’s protection for your pooch, too … Source: Flickr
Posted in earthquake drill, Sacramento, San Andreas Fault, San Joaquin, U.S. Geological Survey | Tagged: ARkStorm, California earthquake, Con Artists, corporate war on nature, Corporment, Corporment Technicians, drop and cover and hold on, Duck and Cover, earthquake, earthquake forecast, Government ruled by corporate interests, Great Southern California ShakeOut, War Against Nature, war on nature | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on January 20, 2010
Earthquake Measuring up to 6.1 Mw Strikes Near Cayman Islands
Strong earthquake measuring up to M6.1 struck offshore near Cayman Islands about 70 km (45 miles) ESE of George Town, Cayman Islands and about 880 km WNW of the powerful earthquake that devastated Port-au-Prince 8 days ago. The quake struck at a depth of about 10km on January 19, 2010 at 14:24 UTC.
There were no report of a tsunami in the area caused by this event.
The earthquake reportedly shook buildings in George town but there was no report of damage or injuries.
Grand Cayman was struck by a 6.8 Mw earthquake on December 14, 2004, three months after Hurricane Ivan had already raked the island. However, the quake caused only minor structural damage to some buildings.
FEWW Earthquake Forecast:
The Gonave Microplate, near the boundaries of which this earthquake occurred, could produce more seismicity in 2010, with possibly another powerful quake measuring 7.4 to 7.6Mw striking its southern boundary. Kingston, Jamaica could experience a powerful quake with a probability of 65 percent.
10-degree Map Centered at 20°N,80°W
Earthquake Location map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW. (Click Images to enlarge).
Seismic Hazard Map showing the west side end of the Gonave Microplate. USGS/EHP. Click image to enlarge.
Seismic Hazard Map of Haiti Region showing the east side of the Gonave Microplate, which is sandwiched between the North American and the Caribbean Plates .Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW. Click image to enlarge.
- Magnitude: 5.8 [EQ magnitude estimated by FEWW: 6.1 Mw – USGS/EHP routinely downgrades earthquakes by about 0.3 Mw]
- Tuesday, January 19, 2010 at 14:23:38 UTC
- Tuesday, January 19, 2010 at 09:23:38 AM at epicenter
- Location: 19.020°N, 80.779°W
- Depth: 10 km (6.2 miles)
- Region: CAYMAN ISLANDS REGION
- 70 km (45 miles) ESE of GEORGE TOWN, Cayman Islands
- 305 km (190 miles) WNW of Montego Bay, Jamaica
- 345 km (215 miles) S of Cienfuegos, Cuba
- 750 km (465 miles) S of Miami, Florida
- 880 km WNW of the powerful earthquake that devastated Port-au-Prince on January 12, 2010
- Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 4.2 km (2.6 miles); depth fixed by location program
- Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
- Event ID: us2010rrbc
Posted in Cayman Islands quake, Cienfuegos, eathquakes, George Town earthquake, Haiti earthquake, Montego Bay | Tagged: Caribbean plate, earthquake forecast, earthquake forecast 2010, feww earthquake forecast, Gonave Microplate, Grand Cayman quake, Jamaica, North American plate, Oriente Fracture | 1 Comment »
Posted by feww on January 5, 2010
UPDATED Jan 6, 2010
Solomon Isles villages destroyed by tsunami, 9 additional aftershocks strike region
As of posting, at least three villages on Solomon Isles are believed to have been destroyed or damaged by a tsunami, 9 additional aftershocks, 8 of which measured greater than M5.0, have struck near the epicenter of the mainshock.
Deep scars on the hillside caused by Monday’s mainshock in the Western Province of the Solomon Islands. Credit: Regional Assistance Mission To Solomon Islands (handout via Reuters).
- The mainshock which struck on Sunday, January 03, 2010 at 22:37 UTC generated a 3-m high, destructive tsunami.
- The tsunami slammed on the shores of Rendova Island and neighboring Tetepare Island at about 9:30 am local time on Monday (UTC + 11:00 Hours)
- At least 3 villages have been devastated, or damaged.
- Up to 70 homes on Baniata village on Rendova Island were reported as destroyed or damaged.
- The final damage toll may be much higher, local authorities said.
- No death or injuries reported because tsunami occurred during the day and the residents managed to flee to higher grounds.
- 9 additional aftershocks, 8 of which measured greater than M5.0, have struck near the epicenter of the mainshock.
- The largest of the aftershocks measured up to 6.4Mw, and struck at a depth of about 35km some 35 km SE of Gizo (8.346°S, 157.067°E), New Georgia Islands, Solomon Isles on Monday, January 04, 2010 at 11:28 UTC.
- The latest aftershocks sent frightened villagers in the Western province of Solomon Islands again running to higher grounds fearing another tsunami.
- Landslides were reported on Rendova and Tetepari islands.
- Seven fishermen are reported missing.
- No serious injuries reported.
- About a third of the island of Rendova’s population of 3,500 people have been affected after more than 200 “houses” were destroyed.
Posted in earthquake, earthquake 2010, Gizo, Solomon tsunami, tsunami damage | Tagged: Baniata village, earthquake forecast, Rendova Island, Solomon Islands, Solomon Isles Earthquake, Tetepare Island, tsunami update | 2 Comments »
Posted by feww on December 17, 2009
FEWW EarthModel shows a massive buildup of earthquake stress energy in southern Italy/ Sicily region
The energy buildup could lead to an earthquake measuring up to 8.4 Mw.
Posted in Campi Flegrei, earthquake, Etna, stromboli, volcano | Tagged: Aeolian Islands, earthquake, earthquake forecast, Sicily quake, Southern Italy | 1 Comment »
Posted by feww on November 4, 2009
Quake measuring 5 on Richter scale rocked Western Yunnan, destroying about 600 houses and damaging up to 18,000 others
The earthquake occurred in western Yunnan about 85 km (55 miles) NE of Dali at a depth of 35 km (21.7 miles) early Monday local time.
The tremor has affected 302,000 people, with 31 injured and 61,000 relocated, but no deaths were reported so far, China’s official news agency Xinhua said. “The quake flattened 579 houses and damaged another 17,400.”
China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs has sent tents, war clothing, and rice to the victims, Xinhua added.
According to other reports, about 400 livestock, including pigs, sheep and chicken had been killed in the quake.
10-degree Map Centered at 25°N,100°E
Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW
- Magnitude: 4.9 Mw
- Date-Time: Sunday, November 01, 2009 at 21:07:23 UTC [Monday, November 02, 2009 at 05:07:23 AM at epicenter]
- Location: 25.919°N, 100.748°E
- Depth: 35 km (21.7 miles)
- Region: YUNNAN, CHINA
- 85 km (55 miles) NE of Dali, Yunnan, China
- 120 km (75 miles) SW of Panzhihua (Dukou), Sichuan, China
- 700 km (435 miles) SW of Chongqing, Chongqing, China
- 2130 km (1320 miles) SW of BEIJING, Beijing, China
- Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 10.7 km (6.6 miles)
- Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
- Event ID: us2009nla2
Seismic Hazard Map
Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green
Posted in Beijing, China quake, chinese Govt, Earthquake Hazard, seismicity report | Tagged: China, china earthquake forecast, China quake, Dali quake, Dukou, earthquake forecast, Earthquakes, Panzhihua quakes, Sichuan, Yunnan quake | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on October 13, 2009
FEWW list of earthquakes measuring ≥ 6.0 Mw that occurred between 7 – 12 October 2009
Source of the initial data: USGS/EHP; maximum quake magnitudes estimated by FEWW.]
The total amount of energy released by the above quakes was the equivalent of the energy released by about 3,830 Hiroshima A-Bombs. [Click image to enlarge.]
1. About 52 percent of the total energy released during the listed events came from the Vanuatu earthquake measuring 8.2 Mw.
2. A combined total of 89 percent of the energy released came from the two earthquakes highlighted in shades of blue, measuring 8.2 and 8.1 Mw respectively.
Posted in Alaska quake, Alaska quake forecast, Aleutian Islands quake, Halmahera quake, KURIL ISLANDS quake, maximum quake magnitudes, santa cruz islands quake, vanuatu quake | Tagged: earthquake energy, earthquake forecast, Earthquakes, energy released by earthquakes, quake energy | 19 Comments »
Posted by feww on October 4, 2009
Strong Earthquake Measuring up to 6.4Mw Strikes East Coast of Taiwan
Strong earthquake measuring up to 6.4 Mw struck off the east coast of Taiwan at a depth of 17.5 km on Saturday, October 03, 2009 at 17:36 UTC.
As the quake occurred, Typhoon Parma was reported heading towards the southeastern coast of Taiwan still reeling from the aftermath of typhoon Morakot that struck the island in August, killing more than 1000 people.
10-degree Map Centered at 25°N,120°E
Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW
USGS/EHP has downgraded this quake to a magnitude 6.1 shock.
- Magnitude: 6.1 [possibly measuring up to 6.4Mw – Moderator]
- Saturday, October 03, 2009 at 17:36:05 UTC
- Sunday, October 04, 2009 at 01:36:05 AM at epicenter
- Location 23.635°N, 121.565°E
- Depth 17.5 km (10.9 miles)
- Region TAIWAN
- 35 km (25 miles) S of Hua-lien, Taiwan
- 110 km (65 miles) ESE of T’ai-chung, Taiwan
- 110 km (70 miles) NNE of T’ai-tung, Taiwan
- 160 km (100 miles) S of T’AI-PEI, Taiwan
- Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 5.7 km (3.5 miles); depth +/- 5 km (3.1 miles)
- Parameters NST= 97, Nph= 97, Dmin=38.4 km, Rmss=1.06 sec, Gp= 22°, M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=6
- Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
- Event ID: us2009mhcf
Posted in Climate Change, human enhanced catastrophes, T'ai-tung quake, T'AI-PEI, Typhoon Morakot | Tagged: earthquake forecast, Earthquakes, Hua-lien quake, quake strikes taiwan, T'ai-chung quake, T'ai-tung earthquake, Taiwan quake, Typhoon Parma | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on October 2, 2009
Sumatra Double Earthquakes
FEWW Moderators believe it’s highly probable that another 2 or more strong to powerful quakes could strike the region in the coming days. Padang and other coastal towns in Sumatra and Java must also prepare for a possible tsunami.
At least 1,200 bodies have been recovered following widespread damage after a magnitude 7.9 quake struck southern Sumatra, Indonesia, on Wednesday, according to the officials.
The Death Toll Could Reach Many Thousands
There are no reports of deaths from the 6.8 magnitude quake that struck southern Sumatra on Thursday. However. a local radio station reported that a dozen 12 people had been injured and up to 75 building damaged in the town of Jambi.
“People are trapped and screaming for help but they are below huge slabs which will take heavy equipment to move,” an aid worker said.
“I saw dozens of the biggest buildings collapsed in town. Most of the damage is concentrated in the commercial center market, which was fully packed,” he said.
Images that will be repeated throughout the world, again, and again
Residents stand near the bodies of earthquake victims at a hospital in Padang on Indonesia’s Sumatra
island October 1, 2009. REUTERS/Muhammad Fitrah/Singgalang Newspaper
West Sumatra, a major producer of crude palm oil, is also affected economically.
Indonesia’s finance minister Sri Mulyani said: “This region has been damaged seriously, including its infrastructure,” adding that her government has allocated $25 million over two month for emergency operations.
Posted in Jambi, Padang Quake, palm oil production, Southern Sumatra quake, Sri Mulyani, sumatra quake | Tagged: earthquake forecast, Earthquakes, Indonesia quake, large earthquakes, megaquakes, Pacific Ring of Fire, sumatra tsunami | 1 Comment »
Posted by feww on September 30, 2009
Magnitude 7.9 earthquake strikes southern Sumatra, Indonesia
Magnitude 7.9 earthquake struck southern Sumatra, Indonesia, 50 km (30 miles) WNW of Padang, at a depth of about 85 km on Wednesday, September 30, 2009 at 10:16 UTC, USGS/EHP reported.
Only hours ago, having briefly analyzed details of the Samoan earthquake, FEWW had foretasted that up to 3 more powerful quakes could strike the Pacific Ring of Fire in 2009.
Four weeks ago a deadly earthquake measuring 7.3 to 7.6 Mw struck off the coast of Java, Indonesia, killing more than 80 people and injuring at least another 1,250.
Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (NOAA) has issued a tsunami warning based on the size and location of the earthquake for countries bordering Indian Ocean: Indonesia, India, Thailand and Malaysia.
“People are panicking. They are running out of the buildings… There are many collapsed buildings,” an eye-witness in Padang told a local TV station.
“Hundreds of houses have been damaged along the road. There are some fires, bridges are cut and there is extreme panic here maybe because water pipes are broken and there is flooding in the streets,” another witness told Reuters.
“Hundreds of houses have been damaged along the road,” another eye-witness in Padang said.
“There are some fires, bridges are cut and there is extreme panic here maybe because water pipes are broken and there is flooding in the streets.”
Padang has a population of just under 1,000,000 people. There were no reports of casualties as of posting; however, given that so many buildings have collapsed, it’s more than likely that many people would have been killed or injured.
According to a local report, power and phone lines are down in Pandang and several other parts of Indonesia.
The mainshock was followed by a strong aftershock measuring 6.0 GFZ Potsdam/ Earthquake Bulletin reported. More strong aftershocks are highly probable.
10-degree Map Centered at 0°N,100°E
Earthquake Location Map. Source USGS/EHP
GFZ Potsdam – Earthquake Bulletin
Region: Southern Sumatra, Indonesia
Time: 2009-09-30 10:16:10.4 UTC
Epicenter: 99.87°E 0.80°S
Depth: 84 km
Status: manually revised
Earthquake Details (according to USGS)
- Magnitude: 7.9
- Wednesday, September 30, 2009 at 10:16:10 UTC
- Wednesday, September 30, 2009 at 05:16:10 PM at epicenter
- Location: 0.797°S, 99.925°E
- Depth: 85 km (52.8 miles)
- Region: SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
- 50 km (30 miles) WNW of Padang, Sumatra, Indonesia
- 225 km (140 miles) SW of Pekanbaru, Sumatra, Indonesia
- 475 km (295 miles) SSW of KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia
- 960 km (600 miles) NW of JAKARTA, Java, Indonesia
- Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 10.6 km (6.6 miles); depth +/- 16.1 km (10.0 miles)
Parameters: NST= 44, Nph= 44, Dmin=523.2 km, Rmss=1.44 sec, Gp= 47°, M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=7
- Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
- Event ID: us2009mebz
Posted in Indian Ocean tsunami, Indonesia tsunami, large earthquakes, megaquakes, sumatra tsunami | Tagged: earthquake forecast, Earthquakes, Indonesia quake, Pacific Ring of Fire, Padang Quake, Southern Sumatra quake, sumatra quake | 5 Comments »
Posted by feww on September 30, 2009
Samoa Tsunami: Images and Update
The tsunami occurred after a massive earthquake measuring up to 8.4 Mw struck in the Samoa Islands Region about 185 km (115 miles) east-northeast of Hihifo, Tonga and 195 km (125 miles) south of APIA, Samoa.
According to various reports
- A series of of three or more tsunamis struck into the Pacific islands of American and Western Samoa destroying villages
- At least 4 villages were wiped off.
- Dozens of people, including many children, were swept out to sea
- As many as 100 people have been killed, with many hundred more injured
- U.S. President Obama has declared American Samoa a major disaster area
- A 4-meter (13-foot) wave hit the northern coast of Tonga.
- A Pacific-wide tsunami warning was issued, but later canceled.
- Japan’s Meteorological Agency (JMA) issued a local tsunami warning for its east coast, warning of a possible tsunami waves measuring up to 50cm.
- The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center later reported that small tsunami waves had indeed reached Hawaii, and warned swimmers and boats that the waves could prove dangerous.
- Several South Pacific island nations reported rising sea levels.
Formerly Leone village, American Samoa. Photograph: Ardie Roque/EPA. Image may be subject to copyright.
- The southern section of American Samoa’s main Tutuila island was “devastated,” its governor said, with at least 24 people killed and twice as many injured.
- As video images come in, the extent of the damage becomes more evident with homes destroyed by the waves, large fishing boats hurled ashore, and vehicles piled on top of each other.
- “Some areas have been flattened and the tsunami brought a lot of sand onshore, so there have been reports the sand has covered some of the bodies,” Western Samoa’s disaster management office said.
- “They are still continuing the searches for any missing bodies in the area,” they said, adding that the southern section of their country’s main island of Upolu was the worst hit.
A section of Fagatogo, Tutuila Island, Pago Pago Harbor, American Samoa, is seen inundated after the tsunami struck. Photograph: Fili Sagapolutele/AP. Image may be subject to copyright.
Posted in Earthquake news, Samoa earthquake, Samoa Islands Region, samoa quake, The Largest Earthquake, TONGA REGION | Tagged: American Samoa Tsunami, APIA quake, APIA tsunami, coast of Tonga, earthquake forecast, Earthquakes, Hihifo quake, NUKUALOFA, Tutuila island, Upolu Island, Western Samoa | 4 Comments »