Posts Tagged ‘eastern Pacific’
Posted by feww on March 9, 2012
on November 19, 2011 FIRE-EARTH posted the following forecast:
Earlier today, MSNBC posted the following:
We won’t ask, what new data? However, note the researchers’ inappropriate use of the term “mirror image,” which they almost certainly borrowed from earlier FIRE-EARTH forecast [https://feww.wordpress.com/2009/08/19/new-round-of-geo-assualt/] but used it in the wrong context. Their slick prophecy about the time of occurrence, “it could be sooner rather than later,” is also mysteriously consistent with the above FIRE-EARTH forecast(i.e, short term). Though the researchers fail to say how they arrived at their conclusion or where it came from.
Quake catastrophe like Japan’s could hit Pacific Northwest, new data show
“It’s just like Japan, only a mirror image,” said Gerard Fryer, a geophysicist at the University of Hawaii and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.
“Where are we here? Are we close or are we not close?” he asked. “I think the suspicion is that it could be sooner rather than later.” [Based on what assumptions?]
[…]
Like Fryer, he called the Pacific Northwest trench a “mirror image” of the Japanese trench — except potentially even more dangerous.
“In this mirror image, one can see that if the same earthquake occurred in Cascadia, the fault would rupture to a significant distance inland, since the Cascadia trench sits much closer to the coastline than the trench off the coast of Japan,” Anderson said.
http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/03/08/10603138-quake-catastrophe-like-japans-could-hit-pacific-northwest-new-data-show
NOTHING SACRED in SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY
MAJOR GEOLOGICAL EPISODES that are likely to IMPACT THE ENTIRE WESTERN UNITED STATES, as forecast by FIRE-EARTH, will comprise a number of discrete events, including at least several ‘surprises.’
Readers who are in doubt about the originality of the research at Hawaii and Nevada universities, could put their minds at rest of course by emailing the two academics named in the MSNBC article and asking them for details of those events (e.g, type, sequence, scale, probability of occurrence…).
JAPAN Region Earthquake Forecast
In Japan Earthquake Forecast, posted on February 14, 2012, we said:
A Note to Seismologists at Tokyo University and Tohoku University, Japan
FIRE-EARTH MODERATORS STRONGLY URGE YOU TO PRODUCE ORIGINAL RESEARCH AND REFRAIN FROM PIGGYBACK RIDING ON OUR FORECASTS.
ONCE AGAIN, YOU HAVE MADE US EXTREMELY RELUCTANT TO POST ANY FUTURE EARTHQUAKE FORECAST.
Staff at Research Center for Prediction of Earthquakes & Volcanic Eruptions, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University are strongly advised to focus on probability of the next major earthquake in China.
How could researchers from 4 different universities located on the opposite ends of Pacific Ocean, about 9,000km (5,500 miles) apart bluff their way in identical ways, fooling their respective taxpayers into believing they know their science? Is there a common link between Japan earthquake researchers, and their counterparts in Western U.S.?
Interestingly, it seems there is a solid link. Read the rest of MSNBC article Quake catastrophe like Japan’s could hit Pacific Northwest, new data show.
Related Links
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WARNING: Many parts of the United States could become ‘unrecognizable’ due to extreme climatic, geophysical and geological episodes over the next 18 months: FIRE-EARTH Forecast
Posted in Global Disaster watch, global disasters | Tagged: Cascadia trench, earthquake forecast, Earthquakes, eastern Pacific, extreme climatic events, extreme geological episodes, extreme geophysical episodes, FIRE-EARTH earthquake FORECAST, FIRE-EARTH FORECAST, GEOLOGICAL Activity, Geological Events Western US, japan earthquake forecast, Japan Megaquake, JAPAN Region Earthquake Forecast, MAJOR GEOLOGICAL EPISODES, Mechanism for Mega Disasters, Mega Disasters, Quake catastrophe like Japan’s could hit Pacific Northwest, US earthquakes, US volcanoes | 5 Comments »
Posted by feww on November 19, 2011
FIRE-EARTH FORECAST:
MAJOR GEOLOGICAL EPISODES COULD IMPACT THE ENTIRE WESTERN UNITED STATES, BEGINNING IN THE NEXT 18 MONTHS [PROBABILITY ≥ 0.8]
Related Links:
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WARNING: Many parts of the United States could become ‘unrecognizable’ due to extreme climatic, geophysical and geological episodes over the next 18 months: FIRE-EARTH Forecast
Posted in global disasters, Mechanism for Mega Disasters, Mega Disasters | Tagged: Earthquakes, eastern Pacific, FIRE-EARTH FORECAST, GEOLOGICAL Activity, Geological Events Western US, MAJOR GEOLOGICAL EPISODES, US earthquakes, US volcanoes, volcanic activity | 2 Comments »
Posted by feww on November 24, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 23 November 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.5ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.7ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 1.2ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.5ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific and more than 2.0°C above average between 180°and 140°W. [Expanding across the Tropical Pacific. FEWW ]
[SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.
[SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, positive equatorial SST anomalies persisted across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased in some regions across the eastern half of the Pacific.
Upper-Ocean Conditions in the Eq. Pacific
- The basin-wide equatorial upper ocean (0-300 m) heat content is greatestprior to and during the early stages of a Pacific warm (El Niño) episode (compare top 2 panels) and leastprior to and during the early stages of a cold(La Niña) episode.
- The slope of the oceanic thermocline is least (greatest) during warm (cold) episodes.
- Recent values of the upper-ocean heat anomalies (positive) and the thermocline slope index (negative) reflect El Niño.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific
- During late September –mid November 2009, temperature anomalies at thermocline depth increased and expanded eastward across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, in response to the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave.
- The most recent period shows a continued eastward expansion of positive anomalies in the equatorial Pacific near 50 -150m depth.
Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Day
Click image to enlarge.
Intraseasonal Variability
- Intraseasonal variability in the atmosphere (wind and pressure), which is often related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), can significantly impact surface and subsurface conditions across the Pacific Ocean.
- Related to this activity
- significant weakening of the low-level easterly winds usually initiates an eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin wave.
- Several Kelvin waves have occurred during the last year (see next slide).
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) are at least 1.0ºC-2.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue to strengthen and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño latest news, El Niño update, El Niño weekly report, ENSO | Tagged: australia, eastern Pacific, equatorial Pacific Ocean, equatorial SSTs, Global SST anomalies, Indian Ocean SST, Indonesia, Negative OLR anomalies, North Pacific Ocean, Ocean SST, Oceanic Kelvin waves, Pacific Ocean, Papua New Guinea, positive OLR, Positive SST, suppressed convection and precipitation, Tropical Pacific SST, western tropical pacific ocean, wind anomaly | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on November 17, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 16 November 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.5ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.7ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 1.2ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.5ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4
During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific and more than 2.0°C above average between 175°E and 140°W.
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.
Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased across much of the central and eastern Pacific.
Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content Anomalies
Since April 2009, the upper-ocean heat content has been above average across
the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The heat content was previously below-average from mid-August 2008 through March 2009, with a minimum reached in late December 2008.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific
- During late September – early November 2009, temperature anomalies at thermocline depth increased and expanded eastward across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, in response to the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave.
- The most recent period (below) shows a continued eastward expansion of positive anomalies in the equatorial Pacific near 50 – 150m depth.
Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days
- Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, and Australia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were located over the western tropical Pacific Ocean just southeast of Papua New Guinea.
- Low-level (850-hPa) westerly anomalies were observed over the east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific. Anomalous anticyclones were evident in the subtropics of both hemispheres, which is consistent with El Niño.
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
From mid-September through October, anomalous troughing was prevalent over the North Pacific Ocean. During October, the pattern of below-average heights became more zonal over the mid-latitudes and an anomalous ridge developed over the higher latitudes. This pattern contributed to below-average temperatures across Canada and much of the U.S. Since early November, the anomalous zonal pattern of below-average heights at mid-latitudes has been replaced by anomalous ridges with below-average heights across the northernmost latitudes. This pattern has led to above-average temperatures across much of Canada and the United States.
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue to strengthen and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño weekly report, ENSO, Ocean SST | Tagged: australia, eastern Pacific, equatorial Pacific Ocean, equatorial SSTs, Global SST anomalies, Indian Ocean SST, Indonesia, Malaysia, Negative OLR anomalies, North Pacific Ocean, Oceanic Kelvin waves, Pacific Ocean, Papua New Guinea, positive OLR, Positive SST, suppressed convection and precipitation, Tropical Pacific SST, western tropical pacific ocean, wind anomaly | 1 Comment »
Posted by feww on November 11, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 9 November 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.6ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.7ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 1.3ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.4ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific and more than 2.0°C above average between 175°E and 160°W.
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.
Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased in much of the central and eastern Pacific.
Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days
- Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia, Malaysia, and Australia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were located across the northern Philippines and over the western tropical Pacific Ocean.
- Low-level (850-hPa) westerly anomalies were observed over parts of the western and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific. Anomalous anticyclones were evident in the subtropics of both hemispheres, which is consistent with El Niño.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific
- During mid September –October 2009, temperature anomalies increased and expanded eastward in the central equatorial Pacific at thermoclinedepth, due to the downwelling phase of a Kelvin wave.
- The most recent period (below) shows a continued eastward expansion of positive anomalies in the central Pacific near 100-150m depth.
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
In late September and early October, an anomalous ridge developed over the Gulf of Alaska, with a downstream trough and below-average temperatures over parts of the U.S. During mid October, the pattern became more zonal with an anomalous trough evident over the mid-latitudes and an anomalous ridge over the higher latitudes. This pattern contributed to below-average temperatures across Canada and the eastern half of the U.S. Recently, anomalous ridges emerged over the eastern North Pacific and eastern U.S. leading to above-average temperatures over the western and eastern U.S.
Low-level (850-hPa) Zonal (east-west) Wind Anomalies (m s-1)
- Since April 2009, the MJO has been weak.
- Since May 2009, westerly wind anomalies have covered large portions of the equatorial Pacific, except near the Date Line.
- Recently, the largest westerly wind anomalies have been observed across the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue to strengthen and last through at least theNorthern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño weekly report, ENSO, Ocean SST | Tagged: eastern Pacific, equatorial Pacific Ocean, equatorial SSTs, Global SST anomalies, Indian Ocean SST, Indonesia, Malaysia, Negative OLR anomalies, North Pacific Ocean, Oceanic Kelvin waves, Pacific Ocean, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, positive OLR, Positive SST, suppressed convection and precipitation, Tropical Pacific SST, western tropical pacific ocean, wind anomaly | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on November 3, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 2 November 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.6ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.5ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 1.2ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.4ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 140°W and in small areas in the eastern Pacific.
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.
Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased in much of the central and eastern Pacific.
Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days
- Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia, Malaysia, and Australia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation) were located across the northern Philippines, Papua New Guinea, and over the western tropical Pacific Ocean.
- Low-level (850-hPa) westerly anomalies were observed over parts of the western and central equatorial Pacific.
- Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific.
Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook
- Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
- The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to greater than +2.0°C), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10.
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 1 November 2009
The CFS ensemble mean predicts El Niño will last at least through Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last at least through Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, ENSO, Indian Ocean SST, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean | Tagged: Climate Prediction, eastern Pacific, El Niño weekly report, equatorial Pacific Ocean, equatorial SSTs, Global SST anomalies, Indonesia, Malaysia, Negative OLR anomalies, North Pacific Ocean, Oceanic Kelvin waves, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, positive OLR, Positive SST, suppressed convection and precipitation, Tropical Pacific SST, western tropical pacific ocean, wind anomaly | Leave a Comment »
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