Posts Tagged ‘El Niño rain’
Posted by feww on March 24, 2010
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 22 March 2010
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.1ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.2ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 0.7ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ (– 0.1ºC)
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Summary:
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºCabove-average across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
Related Links:
El Niño Updates – Last 5 Weeks:
- El Niño [Main Page, Links to Weekly Updates Archive]
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, ENSO, Oceanic Niño Index, Tropical Pacific SST | Tagged: El Niño rain, El Niño update, El Niño update 2010, El Niño update march | 2 Comments »
Posted by feww on March 9, 2010
Fire-Earth Forecast: More extremes of weather could affect western, northwestern and northern regions of South America throughout the spring 2010, possibly extending into the summer.
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 8 March 2010
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.1ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.1ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 0.7ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.1ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 1.0°C above average between 170°E and 125°W and near the western S. American coast.
Global SST Departures
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the central and eastern Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.
Weekly SST Departures for the Last Four Weeks
Source: Climate Prediction Center/NCEP
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºCabove-average across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
Related Links:
El Niño Updates – Last 4 Weeks:
- El Niño [Main Page, Links to Weekly Updates Archive]
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño 2010, El Niño report, El Niño today, ENSO | Tagged: El Niño conditions, El Niño drought, El Niño impact, El Niño latest news, El Niño rain, El Niño update, El Niño update 2010, El Niño update MARCH 2010, La Niña episode, Oceanic Niño Index, SST anomalies, Tropical Pacific SST | 5 Comments »
Posted by feww on March 2, 2010
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 1 March 2010
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.2ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.2ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 0.9ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.4ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 1.0°C above average between 175°E and 125°W and near the western S. American coast.
Global SST Departures (ºC) – Click images to enlarge
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the central and eastern Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.
Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content Anomalies
Since April 2009, the upper-ocean heat content has been above average across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sharp increases in heat content during June and October coincide with the development and subsequent strengthening of El Niño, respectively. Recently, heat content anomalies have increased again in association with an oceanic Kelvin wave.
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
From late December to early January, strong mid-latitude westerlies(East Asian and Atlantic jets) were accompanied by troughs over the North Pacific and the eastern U.S. The troughs contributed to below-average temperatures across portions of the U.S. At higher latitudes, strong ridging led to above-average temperatures across parts of Canada. During mid to late January, the East Asian jet extended farther east and a strong trough became established over the eastern Pacific. Over N. America, strong ridging contributed to above-average temperatures over much of N. America. During February, troughing and below-average temperatures became reestablished over the middle latitudes, along with ridging and above-average temperatures over higher latitudes.
Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook
- A majority of the models indicate that the Niño-3.4 temperature departures will gradually decrease at least into the summer.
- The models are split with the majority indicating ENSO-neutral conditions by May-July 2010 and persisting into the Fall. Several models also suggest the potential of continued El Niño conditions or the development of La Niña conditions during the Fall.
Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 16 Feb 2010).
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºCabove-average across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
Related Links:
El Niño Updates – Last 4 Weeks:
- El Niño [Main Page, Links to Weekly Updates Archive]
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño 2010, El Niño report | Tagged: El Niño conditions, El Niño drought, El Niño impact, El Niño latest news, El Niño rain, El Niño update 2010, El Niño update MARCH 2010, ENSO, Oceanic Niño Index, SST anomalies, Tropical Pacific SST | 2 Comments »
Posted by feww on February 25, 2010
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 22 February 2010
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.1ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.2ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 0.8ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.4ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 1.0°C above average between 175°E and 125°W.
Global SST Departures (ºC)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the central and eastern Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.
Weekly SST Departures (oC) for the Last Four Weeks
- Weeks•During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have extended from 170°E eastward to the South American coast.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies have decreased across the central Pacific and increased in the extreme eastern Pacific
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (ºC) in the Equatorial Pacific
- In mid January 2010, positive subsurface temperature anomalies increased in the eastern equatorial Pacific in association with the downwellingphase of an oceanic Kelvin wave.
- The most recent period (below) indicates another downwellingphase of an oceanic Kelvin wave is increasing temperatures in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
From mid-December to early January, strong mid-latitude westerlies(East Asian and Atlantic jets) were accompanied by troughs over the North Pacific and the eastern U.S. The troughs contributed to below-average temperatures across portions of the U.S. At higher latitudes, strong ridging led to above-average temperatures across parts of Canada. Since mid January,the East Asian jet extended farther east and a trough became established over the eastern Pacific. Over N. America, strong ridging over Canada contributed to above-average temperatures across Canada and the northwestern U.S. During early February, troughing and below-average temperatures became reestablished over the eastern and central United States.
Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook
- A majority of the models indicate that the Niño-3.4 temperature departures will gradually decrease at least into the summer.
- The models are split with the majority indicating ENSO-neutral conditions by May-July 2010 and persisting into the Fall. Several models also suggest the potential of continued El Niño conditions or the development of La Niña conditions during the Fall.
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
Related Links:
El Niño Updates – Last 4 Weeks:
- El Niño [Main Page, Links to Weekly Updates Archive]
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño 2010, El Niño report, El Niño update | Tagged: El Niño conditions, El Niño drought, El Niño impact, El Niño latest news, El Niño rain, El Niño update 2010, El Niño update Feb 25, ENSO, Oceanic Niño Index, SST anomalies, Tropical Pacific SST | 3 Comments »
Posted by feww on February 16, 2010
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 15 February 2010
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.0ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.2ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 0.7ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ (-0.1ºC)
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
Equatorial SSTs were more than 1.0°C above average between 175°E and 125°W.
Click image to enlarge.
Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have weakened across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies have decreased across much of the central and eastern Pacific.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (ºC) in the Equatorial Pacific
Click image to enlarge.
- In early January 2010, positive subsurface temperature anomalies increased in the central equatorial Pacific in association with the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave.
- The most recent period (below) indicates a broad area of above-average subsurface temperatures across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Click image to enlarge.
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
Click image to enlarge. From mid-December to mid-January, strong mid-latitude westerlies (East Asian and Atlantic jets) were accompanied by troughs over the North Pacific and North America. The troughs contributed to below-average temperatures across portions of the U.S. and Canada. At higher latitudes, strong ridging led to above-average temperatures across Alaska and northern Canada. During late January, the East Asian jet extended farther east and a trough became established over the eastern Pacific. Over much of N. America, strong ridging over Canada contributed to above-average temperatures across Canada and portions of the U.S. During early February, troughing and below-average temperatures became reestablished over the United States.
Click image to enlarge.
Intraseasonal Variability
- Intraseasonal variability in the atmosphere (wind and pressure), which is often related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), can significantly impact surface and subsurface conditions across the Pacific Ocean.
- Related to this activity
- significant weakening of the low-level easterly winds usually initiates an eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin wave.
- Several Kelvin waves have occurred during the last year (see next slide).
Click image to enlarge.
Click image to enlarge.
Click image to enlarge.
Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook
- A majority of the models indicate that the current El Niño episode is near or at its peak (e.g. December-January-February).
- After peaking, nearly all models indicate Niño-3.4 temperature departures will gradually decrease, with about half of the models indicating that El Niño will continue into April-May-June 2010.
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 31 January 2010
The NCEP CFS predicts El Niño will last through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2010.
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºCabove-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
Related Links:
El Niño Updates – Last 4 Weeks:
- El Niño [Main Page, Links to Weekly Updates Archive]
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño 2010, El Niño report, El Niño update | Tagged: El Niño conditions, El Niño drought, El Niño impact, El Niño latest news, El Niño rain, El Niño update 2010, El Niño update Feb, ENSO, Oceanic Niño Index, SST anomalies, Tropical Pacific SST | 3 Comments »
Posted by feww on February 10, 2010
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 8 February 2010
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.1ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.2ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 0.6ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.0ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the central and eastern Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.
Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have weakened across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies have decreased across the east-central and eastern Pacific.
Click images to enlarge
From December to early January, strong mid-latitude westerlies (East Asian and Atlantic jets) were accompanied by troughs over the North Pacific and North America. The troughs contributed to below-average temperatures across portions of the U.S. and Canada. At higher latitudes, strong ridging led to above-average temperatures across Alaska and northern Canada. Since mid January, the East Asian jet has extended farther east and a trough has become established over the eastern Pacific. Overmuch of N. America, strong ridging over Canada has contributed to above-average temperatures across Canada and portions of the contiguous U.S. This recent pattern is typical of El Niño.
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 31 January 2010
The NCEP CFS predicts El Niño will last through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2010.
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 1.0ºC-2.5ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
Related Links:
El Niño Updates – Last 4 Weeks:
- El Niño [Main Page, Links to Weekly Updates Archive]
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Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño 2010, El Niño conditions, El Niño impact, El Niño latest news, El Niño update, El Niño update 2010, El Niño weekly report | Tagged: El Niño drought, El Niño impact, El Niño rain, El Niño update Feb, ENSO, Oceanic Niño Index, SST anomalies, Tropical Pacific SST | 5 Comments »
Posted by feww on February 3, 2010
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 1 February 2010
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.3ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.2ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 0.7ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.4ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have weakened across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies have decreased across the east-central and eastern Pacific.
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 2.0°C above average between 170°W and 150°W.
Click on the images to enlarge
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.
Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have weakened across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies have decreased across the east-central and eastern Pacific.
Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content Anomalies
Since April 2009, the upper-ocean heat content has been above average across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sharp increases in heat content during June and October coincide with the development and subsequent strengthening of El Niño, respectively.
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 31 January 2010
The CFS ensemble mean predicts El Niño will last through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2010.
Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 1.0ºC-2.5ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
- El Niño [Main Page, Links to Weekly Updates Archive]
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño 2010, El Niño update 2010, ENSO | Tagged: El Niño 2010, El Niño drought, El Niño impact, El Niño rain, Oceanic Niño Index, SST anomalies, Tropical Pacific SST | 6 Comments »
Fire Earth 