Posts Tagged ‘El Niño weekly report’
Posted by feww on January 19, 2010
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 18 January 2010
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.5ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.7ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 1.1ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.3ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 2.0°C above average between 170°W and 145°W.
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.
Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have weakened across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies have decreased in parts of the eastern Pacific.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific
- During late November –December 2009, positive temperature anomalies expanded eastward across the eastern equatorial Pacific, in response to the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave.
- In late December 2009, positive anomalies increased in the central equatorial Pacific in association with another Kelvin wave.
- The most recent period (below) indicates a broad area of above-average subsurface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Click image to enlarge.
Intraseasonal Variability
- Intraseasonal variability in the atmosphere (wind and pressure), which is often related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), can significantly impact surface and subsurface conditions across the Pacific Ocean.
- Related to this activity
- Significant weakening of the low-level easterly winds usually initiates an eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin wave.
- Several Kelvin waves have occurred during the last year (see next slide).
Summary:
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 1.0ºC-3.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
For additional information, previous entries and diagrams see links below:
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño 2010, El Niño update 2010, ENSO | Tagged: El Niño impact, El Niño weekly report, Madden-Julian Oscillation, Oceanic Niño Index, Pacific SST Outlook, SST anomalies, Tropical Pacific SST | 4 Comments »
Posted by feww on January 12, 2010
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 11 January 2010
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.5ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.8ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 1.2ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.3ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 2.0°C above average in regions east of the Date Line.
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.
Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 1.0ºC to 3.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
For additional information, previous entries and diagrams see links below:
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño 2010, El Niño update 2010, ENSO | Tagged: El Niño impact, El Niño weekly report, Oceanic Niño Index, Pacific SST Outlook, SST anomalies, Tropical Pacific SST | 3 Comments »
Posted by feww on January 5, 2010
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 4 January 2010
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.4ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.8ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 1.4ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.7ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 1.0ºC-3.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to last at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring [and summer] 2010.
Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
For additional information, previous entries and diagrams see links below:
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño 2010, El Niño update 2010, ENSO | Tagged: El Niño impact, El Niño weekly report, Oceanic Niño Index, Pacific SST Outlook, SST anomalies, Tropical Pacific SST | 2 Comments »
Posted by feww on December 29, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 28 December 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.5ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.9ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 1.6ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.5ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific east of 170ºE, and more than 2.0°C above average across large regions in the eastern half of the Pacific.
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.
Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have persisted across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies have increased across the eastern equatorial Pacific.
Click image to enlarge. Source: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
Click image to enlarge. Source: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
During most of November, a nearly zonal pattern of above-average heights over the mid-latitudes was observed with anomalous troughingover the higher latitudes. This pattern led to above-average temperatures across much of North America and below-average temperatures in Alaska. From late November through December, the anomalous zonal pattern of above-average heights at mid-latitudes was replaced by strong anomalous troughs over the N. Pacific and much of N. America and above-average heights at high latitudes. This pattern led to below-average temperatures acrossthe U.S. and Canada and above-average temperatures over Alaska.
Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) Anomalies
Click image to enlarge. Source: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook
- The models continue to disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño, but nearly all indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (3-month average greater than +1.0°C) through January-February-March 2010.
- After peaking, the majority of models indicate Niño-3.4 will gradually weaken, but that El Niño will continue into April-May-June 2010.
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 1.0ºC to 3.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue and last at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010
Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño 2010, El Niño update December, Tropical Pacific SST | Tagged: El Niño impact, El Niño weekly report, ENSO, Oceanic Niño Index, Pacific SST Outlook, SST anomalies | 1 Comment »
Posted by feww on December 22, 2009
FEWW Comments on the ongoing El Niño:
- Pacific Ocean surface temperature anomalies are at their highest in the past 12 years, exceeding the anomalies recorded in the 1997-98 El Niño.
- The precipitation remains high near the equator, and low in places like Australia.
- The ongoing drought and deluge would cause substantial damage to crops and infrastructure.
- Extremes of climate enhanced by El Nino in 2010 could contribute to food shortages in many parts of the world.
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 21 December 2009
Click image to enlarge. Source: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.4ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.8ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 1.6ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ -0.2ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific east of 170ºE, and more than 2.0°C above average across portions of the eastern half of the Pacific.
Click image to enlarge. Source: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
Global SST Departures (°C) During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.
Click image to enlarge. Source: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, the largest positive SST anomalies have expanded eastward across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies have increased across much of the across the eastern equatorial Pacific.
Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content Anomalies
Since April 2009, the upper-ocean heat content has been above average across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The heat content was previously below-average from mid-August 2008 through March 2009, with a minimum reached in late December 2008.
Click image to enlarge. Source: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
Click image to enlarge. Source: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
Click image to enlarge. Source: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
Click image to enlarge. Source: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
Click image to enlarge. Source: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
During the first half of November, a nearly zonal pattern of above-average heights over the mid-latitudes was observed with anomalous troughing over the higher latitudes. This pattern led to above-average temperatures across much of North America and below-average temperatures in Alaska. From late November to the first half of December, the anomalous zonal pattern of above-average heights at mid-latitudes was replaced by strong anomalous troughs across the N. Pacific and much of N. America and above-average heights near Alaska. This pattern led to below-average temperatures across the U.S. and Canada and above-average temperatures over Alaska. Click image to enlarge. Source: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook
- The models continue to disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño, but nearly all indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (3-month average greater than +1.0°C) through January-February-March 2010.
- After peaking, the majority of models indicate Niño-3.4 will gradually weaken, but that El Niño will continue into April-May-June 2010. [International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 17 Dec 2009).]
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) are at least 1.0ºC-2.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue and last at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño 2010, El Niño update, Tropical Pacific SST | Tagged: El Niño weekly report, ENSO, Oceanic Niño Index, Pacific SST Outlook, SST anomalies | 2 Comments »
Posted by feww on December 15, 2009
El Niño May Continue into Summer 2010 [and Beyond]
El Niño Weekly Update [14 Dec 2009]
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 14 December 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.3ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.8ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 1.6ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.2ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures (ºC)
- LongitudeTimeDuring November 2008-February 2009, negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies covered the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Since the beginning of June 2009, SST anomalies have been at least +0.5°C across most of the equatorial Pacific.
- During October 2009, positive SST anomalies increased across much of the equatorial Pacific.
- During November 2009, positive SST anomalies remained nearly unchanged.
- Recently, positive SST anomalies increased across the east-central Pacific.
SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific east of 170ºE, and more than 2.0°C above average across portions of the eastern half of the Pacific. Click image to enlarge.
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics. Click image to enlarge.
Click image to enlarge.
Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content AnomaliesSince
Since April 2009, the upper-ocean heat content has been above average across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The heat content was previously below-average from mid-August 2008 through March 2009, with a minimum reached in late December 2008. Click image to enlarge.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific
Click image to enlarge.
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
During the last half of October, a nearly zonal pattern of below-average heights over the mid-latitudes was observed with an anomalous ridging over the higher latitudes. By early November, the anomalous zonal pattern of below-average heights at mid-latitudes had been replaced by strong anomalous ridges across the N. Pacific and much of N. America with below-average heights near Alaska. This pattern led to above-average temperatures across much of Canada and the United States and below-average temperatures in Alaska. Since late November, the pattern has reversed again with below-average heights in the mid-latitudes and above-average heights over Alaska.
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 13 December 2009
The CFS ensemble mean predicts El Niño will last at least into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2010.
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) are at least 1.0ºC-2.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue and last at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010 [and beyond.]
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
- El Niño [Main Page and Links Archive.]
Posted in Climate Prediction, ENSO, Oceanic Niño Index, Pacific SST Outlook, SST anomalies | Tagged: El Niño, El Niño 2010, El Niño spring 2010, El Niño update, El Niño update December 2009, El Niño weekly report, Tropical Pacific SST | 14 Comments »
Posted by feww on December 8, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 7 December 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.4ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.7ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 1.4ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.4ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific and more than 2.0°C above average between 180°and 130°W.
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.
Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies persisted across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies only changed in small regions across the equatorial Pacific.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific
- During October –November 2009, positive temperature anomalies at thermocline depth increased and expanded eastward across the eastern equatorial Pacific, in response to the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave.
- The most recent period indicates the eastward expansion of positive anomalies has slowed in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
See: El Niño Update [30 Nov 2009]
Weekly Heat Content Evolution in the Equatorial Pacific
(A) The negative anomalies weakened during January-March 2009, with positive anomalies becoming established in late March.
(B) In April 2009, the combined effects of an oceanic Kelvin wave and weaker-than-average easterly trade winds contributed to an increase in the upper-ocean heat content anomalies across the Pacific Ocean.
Since April 2009, heat content anomalies have remained above-average, but there has been considerable month-to-month variability due to Kelvin wave activity.
(C) During November, the downwellingphase of a Kelvin wave contributed to an increase in heat content.
Oceanic Kelvin waves have alternating warm and cold phases. The warmp hase is indicated by dashed lines. Down-welling and warming occur in the leading portion of a Kelvin wave, and up-welling and cooling occur in the trailing portion.
Low-level (850-hPa) Zonal (east-west) Wind Anomalies (m s -1)
From April-October 2009, the MJO was weak to nonexistent. Since May 2009, westerly wind anomalies have covered large portions of the equatorial Pacific, except near the Date Line.During November 2009, the MJO became active, which contributed to anomalous easterlies shifting eastward from the Indian Ocean to the central and eastern Pacific. Recently, westerly anomalies have returned across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) are at least 1.0ºC-2.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter2009-10.
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, ENSO, Global SST anomalies, Pacific SST Outlook | Tagged: El Niño update, El Niño weekly report, Oceanic Niño Index, Papua New Guinea, Tropical Pacific SST | 2 Comments »
Posted by feww on December 1, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 30 November 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.6ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.7ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 1.3ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.2ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific and more than 2.0°C above average between 180°and 130°W.
[SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.
[SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies persisted across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased in some parts across the eastern Pacific.
|
Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days
TOP: Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, and Australia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were located over the western tropical Pacific Ocean just southeast of Papua New Guinea.
Middle: Low-level (850-hPa) westerly anomalies remained over the east-central equatorial Pacific.
Above: Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed across the eastern equatorial Pacific. An anticycloniccouplet was evident in the subtropics of both hemispheres, which is consistent with El Niño.
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
During October, a nearly zonal pattern of below-average heights over the mid-latitudes was observed with an anomalous ridge over Alaska and the higher latitudes. This pattern contributed to below-average temperatures across Canada and much of the U.S. During November, the anomalous zonal pattern of below-average heights at mid-latitudes had been replaced by strong anomalous ridges across the N. Pacific and much of N. America with below-average heights across Alaska. This pattern has led to above-average temperatures across much of Canada and the United Statesand below-average temperatures in Alaska.
Intraseasonal Variability
- Intraseasonal variability in the atmosphere (wind and pressure), which is often related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), can significantly impact surface and subsurface conditions across the Pacific Ocean.
- Related to this activity
- Significant weakening of the low-level easterly winds usually initiates an eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin wave.
- Several Kelvin waves have occurred during the last year (see next slide).
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) are at least 1.0ºC-2.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter2009-10.
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, ENSO, Pacific SST Outlook, Uncategorized | Tagged: australia, El Niño update, El Niño weekly report, Global SST anomalies, Indonesia, Malaysia, Oceanic Niño Index, Papua New Guinea, Tropical Pacific SST | 2 Comments »
Posted by feww on November 3, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 2 November 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.6ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.5ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 1.2ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.4ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 140°W and in small areas in the eastern Pacific.
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.
Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased in much of the central and eastern Pacific.
Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days
- Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia, Malaysia, and Australia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation) were located across the northern Philippines, Papua New Guinea, and over the western tropical Pacific Ocean.
- Low-level (850-hPa) westerly anomalies were observed over parts of the western and central equatorial Pacific.
- Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific.
Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook
- Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
- The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to greater than +2.0°C), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10.
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 1 November 2009
The CFS ensemble mean predicts El Niño will last at least through Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last at least through Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, ENSO, Indian Ocean SST, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean | Tagged: Climate Prediction, eastern Pacific, El Niño weekly report, equatorial Pacific Ocean, equatorial SSTs, Global SST anomalies, Indonesia, Malaysia, Negative OLR anomalies, North Pacific Ocean, Oceanic Kelvin waves, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, positive OLR, Positive SST, suppressed convection and precipitation, Tropical Pacific SST, western tropical pacific ocean, wind anomaly | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on October 28, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 26 October 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.4ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.1ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 0.8ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.1ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 140°W and in small areas in the eastern Pacific.
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.
Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central Pacific Ocean.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased over the central Pacific.
Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days
- Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia, Malaysia, and Australia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were located across the Philippines, Papua New Guinea, and in the western tropical Pacific Ocean.
- Low-level (850-hPa) equatorial winds were near-average over the central and eastern Pacific. Westerly anomalies were observed in the western Pacific.
- Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific.
Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook
- Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
- The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to greater than +2.0°C), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during during November-December-January 2009-10. Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 15 Oct 2009).
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 18 October 2009
The CFS ensemble mean predicts El Niño will last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Posted in El Niño, ENSO, Gulf of Alaska, Indian Ocean, North Pacific Ocean, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, positive OLR, Positive SST, suppressed convection and precipitation, wind anomaly | Tagged: australia, Climate Prediction, El Niño weekly report, equatorial Pacific Ocean, Global SST anomalies, Indonesia, Malaysia, Oceanic Kelvin waves, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, western tropical pacific ocean | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on October 14, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 13 October 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.0ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 0.7ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 0.7ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ (-0.7)ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
WeeksDuring the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least1.0°C above average across parts of the central and eastern Pacific.
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.
Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
During the last four weeks, SST anomalies remained positive across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, except in the far eastern Pacific, which have become negative. •During the last month, equatorial SST anomalies decreased over much of the eastern Pacific and increased over the central Pacific.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
During mid August through September, an anomalous trough was prevalent in the North Pacific Ocean/Gulf of Alaska. During September, an anomalous ridge was present downstream, focused over Canada and the northern United States. The pattern also featured a weak trough over the central U.S., which contributed to below-average temperatures in the region, while the northern U.S. and Canada remained warmer-than-average. Recently, an anomalous ridge has dominated the Gulf of Alaska, and a downstream trough has led tobelow-average temperatures across much of the western and northern U.S.
Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook
Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5ºC to +2.0ºC), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10.
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Posted in El Niño, ENSO, Indian Ocean, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, Positive SST, wind anomaly | Tagged: Climate Prediction, El Niño weekly report, equatorial Pacific Ocean, Global SST anomalies, Oceanic Kelvin waves | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on September 29, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 28 Sept 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 0.8ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 0.8ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 0.7ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ -0.1ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) – Recent Evolution
Highlights
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least1.0°C above average across much of the central and eastern Pacific.
Global SST Departures (ºC)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes.
Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, SST anomalies remained positive across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- During the last month, there was little change in the equatorial SST anomalies.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (ºC) in the Equatorial Pacific
- In the first half of September 2009, temperature anomalies increased in the eastern Pacific due to the downwelling phase of a Kelvin wave.
- The most recent period shows a continuation of positive anomalies across the equatorial Pacific, with the largest values between 50-150m depth.
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
During late July through September, an anomalous trough was prevalent in the central North Pacific Ocean. During September, an anomalous ridge was present downstream, focused over Canada and the northern United States. The pattern also featured a trough over the southern U.S., which contributed to cooling in the region, while the northern U.S. and Canada remained warmer-than-average.
Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook
- Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
- The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to +2.0°C), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10.
Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 14 Sept 2009).
ONI Evolution
The most recent ONI value (June –August 2009) is +0.7oC.
Summary:
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Posted in El Niño, ENSO, Indian Ocean, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, Positive SST, wind anomaly | Tagged: Climate Prediction, El Niño conditions, El Niño weekly report, equatorial Pacific Ocean, Global SST anomalies, Oceanic Kelvin waves | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on September 22, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 21 Sept 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 0.8ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 0.9ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 0.8ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.3ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) – Recent Evolution
Highlights
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least1.0°C above average across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
Global SST Departures (ºC)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes.
Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks
During the last four weeks, SST anomalies have remained positive across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. •During the last month, the change in equatorial SST anomalies was slightly positive in the east-central Pacific.
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
During late July through mid-September, an anomalous trough was prevalent in the central North Pacific Ocean. Downstream over the United States, the anomalous height pattern generally featured a trough over the eastern United States with ridging prevalent over the western U.S. This anomalous pattern led to below-average temperatures over the central and eastern U.S. and to above-average temperatures over portions of the western U.S.
ONI Evolution
The most recent ONI value (June –August 2009) is +0.7oC.
Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook
- Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
- The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to +2.0°C), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10.
Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 14 Sept 2009).
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 20 September 2009
The CFS ensemble mean predicts El Niño will last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5ºC above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Climate Prediction, El Niño weekly report, Global SST anomalies, Oceanic Kelvin waves, equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Posted in El Niño, ENSO, Indian Ocean, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, Positive SST, wind anomaly | Tagged: Climate Prediction, El Niño weekly report, equatorial Pacific Ocean, Global SST anomalies, Oceanic Kelvin waves | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on September 8, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 8 Sept 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 0.8ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 0.9ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 1.0ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.7ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) – Recent Evolution
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 0.5°C above-average across the Pacific Ocean and at least 1.0°C above average near the Date Line and in the eastern Pacific.
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes.
ONI (°C): Evolution since 1950
The most recent ONI value (June – August 2009) is +0.7°C.
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5 above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
For additional information see following links.
Relate Links:
El Niño Updates
ENSO, wind anomaly El Niño, Indian Ocean, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, Positive SST
Posted in ENSO, Indian Ocean, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, Positive SST, wind anomaly El Niño | Tagged: El Niño weekly report, equatorial Pacific Ocean, Global SST anomalies, Indian Monsoon | 1 Comment »
Posted by feww on August 25, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 24 August 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 0.8ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 0.7ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 0.9ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.8ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) – Recent Evolution
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks:
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 0.5°C above-average across the Pacific Ocean and at least 1.0°C above average near the Date Line and in the eastern Pacific.
Global SST Departures
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes.
Weekly SST Departures for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, SST anomalies have been positive across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- During the last month, there has been little change in SST anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures in the Equatorial Pacific
- During late-June through mid-August 2009, positive sub-surface temperature anomalies weakened in the eastern half of the Pacific Ocean.
- The most recent period shows positive anomalies across the equatorial Pacific, with the largest anomalies near 125m depth in the west-central Pacific.
Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook
- Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
- The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to +2.0°C), but a majority of the models indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10.
Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 18 Aug 2009).
Summary:
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5 above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Current observations and dynamical model forecasts indicate ElNiño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
See El Niño Home Page for previous entries and related links.
Related Links:
El Niño Updates
Posted in El Niño, Indian Ocean, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, Positive SST | Tagged: El Niño weekly report, equatorial Pacific Ocean. ENSO, Global SST anomalies, Indian Monsoon, wind anomaly | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on August 4, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 3 August 2009
Summary
- El Niño conditions are present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5 above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Current observations and dynamical model forecasts indicate ElNiño conditions will continue to intensify and are expected to last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Tropical Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and Wind Anomalies – Last 30 Days
(Top) Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia and northern Australia, while negative anomalies (enhanced convection, blue shading) in the western and central Pacific from Papua New Guinea to 160°W.
(Middle) Low-level (850-hPa) equatorial winds were near-average over the eastern equatorial Pacific. Westerly anomalies were observed in the far western Pacific.
(Above) Upper-level (200-hPa) wind anomalies remained near-average across much of the Pacific, except for westerly wind anomalies in the eastern Pacific.
Images and caption: NOAA/ NCEP.
Related Links:
Posted in Atmospheric Circulation, El Niño/La Niña, Indian Ocean, northern hemisphere, Oceanic Niño Index, ONI, Upper-Ocean Conditions | Tagged: El Niño, El Niño report, El Niño weekly report, ENSO, equatorial Pacific Ocean, Global SST anomalies, model forecast of enso, tropical OLR, wind anomaly | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on July 28, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 27 July 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 0.6ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 0.9ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 1.0ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.6ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) – Recent Evolution
Summary
- El Niño conditions are present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5 above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Current observations and dynamical model forecasts indicate ElNiño conditions will continue to intensify and are expected to last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least +0.5°C above-average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean and at least +1.0°C above average in the east-central and eastern Pacific. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Global SST Departures
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content Anomalies
The upper ocean heat content was below-average across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean between mid-August 2008 and March 2009, with a minimum reached in late December 2008. The heat content anomalies have remained positive since April 2009. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP] Full Report
Related Links:
Notes:
1. NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña
- El Niño:characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5°C.
- La Niña:characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5°C.
- By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode,these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.
- CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 SST departures meet or exceed +/-0.5°C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.
2. Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
- The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO.
- Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of improved homogeneous historical SST analysis (Extended Reconstructed SST –ERSST.v3b). The SST reconstruction methodology is described in Smith et al., 2008, J. Climate, vol. 21, 2283-2296.)
- Used to place current events into a historical perspective.
- NOAA’s operational definitions of El Niño and La Niña are keyed to the ONI index.
3. The most recent ONI value (April –June 2009) is +0.2oºC.
El Niño Conditions Set in Across Pacific Ocean [From NASA’s Earth Observatory]
El Niño conditions are evident in this sea surface temperature anomaly image based on data from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) on NASA’s Aqua satellite on July 26. The current data are compared to 12-year average temperatures (1985-1997) measured by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers that have flown on several NOAA missions.
Cream-colored places represent near normal temperatures; red is warmer than normal temps; while, blue shows cooler than normal areas. The dark red area on the eastern Pacific off the coast of Peru and Ecuador (north of Peru) indicates much warmer than average temps. Across the Pacific, ocean temperatures around Indonesia were slightly cooler (light blue) than usual.
Earth’s largest ocean, the Pacific is the single biggest influence on the average temperature, rainfall, and vegetation conditions in the tropics. The Pacific’s primary climate pattern, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), includes an ocean component (the El Niño/La Niña pattern) and an atmospheric component, the Southern Oscillation.
Every 3-8 years, the prevailing easterly winds over the eastern equatorial Pacific weaken or reverse, surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific climb, and rainfall declines over most tropical land areas. In 1997-98, an El Niño event contributed to devastating fires in Indonesia’s tropical forests, releasing large amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, which completely destroyed the Mentawai coral reefs west of Sumatra.
El Niño ocean conditions does not guarantee full ENSO event. So far the atmospheric component of the pattern, the Southern Oscillation, isn’t fully cooperating. As of July 26, the trade winds in the western Pacific (near Indonesia) had shifted direction and were blowing weakly toward the east (see NOAA wind anomaly graphic), but across the central and eastern Pacific, easterly trade winds were still of average or slightly above-average strength. For an ENSO event to fully develop, the easterly trades will have to weaken across a much wider area of the Pacific than now.
NASA image by Jesse Allen, using AMSR-E data processed and provided by Chelle Gentemann and Frank Wentz, Remote Sensing Systems. Caption by Rebecca Lindsey. [Edited by FEWW.]
Posted in El Niño, equatorial Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, North Pacific, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, Positive SST | Tagged: El Niño weekly report, ENSO, Global SST anomalies, Indian Monsoon, Mentawai coral reefs, wind anomaly | Leave a Comment »
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