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Earth is fighting to stay alive. Mass dieoffs, triggered by anthropogenic assault and fallout of planetary defense systems offsetting the impact, could begin anytime!

Posts Tagged ‘FEWW Forecast’

Hurricane MARIA Becomes a Super Storm

Posted by feww on September 19, 2017

[NOTE: FEWW DIAG PROPA]

UPDATE: MARIA CONTINUES WNW TOWARD VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO –NHC

[FEWW FORECAST: MARIA sustained winds could intensify to 320 km/h with probability of 60%]

UPDATE: Current Status as of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 19
Location: 16.3°N, 63.1°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 927 mb
Max sustained winds: 160 mph

POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE MARIA CONTINUES WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO, PREPARATIONS AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL FLOODING AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION –NHC

Status as of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 18

Max sustained winds: 160 mph [~ 260 km/h, Cat. 5 hurricane on FEWW New Hurricane Scale]
Location: 15.5°N, 61.4°W
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 924 mb

[NOTE: FEWW DIAG PROPA]

  • Additional details available via FIRE-EARTH PULSARS.

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FIRE-EARTH Bulletin NO. 72

Posted by feww on March 9, 2014

IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT

FIRE-EARTH Bulletin NO. 72 has been released.

Related links

https://feww.wordpress.com/2-bulletin-board/

No. of Days left: 731

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FIRE-EARTH Bulletin NO. 71

Posted by feww on March 5, 2014

IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT

FIRE-EARTH Bulletin NO. 71 has been released.

Related links

https://feww.wordpress.com/2-bulletin-board/

No. of Days left: 735

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Could Ida Become a Hurricane?

Posted by feww on November 7, 2009

Ida, Now a Tropical Depression, Could Become a Tropical Storm Soon.

But will it strengthen further to a hurricane-force storm as it enters the warmer waters in the Gulf of Mexico?

FEWW Moderators believe, as of posting, that Ida has a more than 1 in 4 chance  [P≥0.25] of redeveloping into a hurricane-force storm after entering the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Depression IDA

ir4-l
GOES Sat Image- Still frame. Click image to enlarge and update.

10:00 PM EST Fri Nov 6 [03:00 UTC Sat Nov 7, 2009]
Location: 16.2°N 84.0°W
Max sustained:  56 km/h (35 mph)
Moving: N (360 degrees) at 11 km/h (7 mph)
Min pressure: 1006 mb

IDA is expected to reach the Yucatan Channel late Sunday EST.

POES Composite – Daily Sea Surface Temps.

ocean temp - s
Click image to enlarge and update.

Cumulative Wind History

023313P_sm
Click image to enlarge and update.

This graphic shows how the size of the storm has changed, and the areas potentially affected so far by sustained winds of tropical storm force (in orange) and hurricane force (in red). The display is based on the wind radii contained in the set of Forecast/Advisories indicated at the top of the figure. Users are reminded that the Forecast/Advisory wind radii represent the maximum possible extent of a given wind speed within particular quadrants around the tropical cyclone. As a result, not all locations falling within the orange or red swaths will have experienced sustained tropical storm or hurricane force winds, respectively. Source: NHC/NOAA

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

023313W_NL_sm
Click image to enlarge and update.

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time. Source: NHC/NOAA

Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities – 120 Hours

023313
Click image to enlarge and update.

These graphics show probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 34 kt…39 mph (tropical storm force). These wind speed probability graphics are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. Each graphic provides cumulative probabilities that wind speeds of at least 39 mph will occur during cumulative time periods at each specific point on the map. Source: NHC/NOAA

More Images from GOES Floater Imagery
IDA (AL11)

Other Images

Recommended Satellite Imagery (GOES 12 Floater/NOAA/SSD)

Loops/ Satellite Animations (GOES 12; NOAA/SSD)

Posted in Atlantic hurricane season, hurricane-force storm, Hurricanes, storms, Tropical storm | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Weekly Volcano Watch: 12 March 2009

Posted by feww on March 12, 2009

Latest U.S. Volcano Alerts and Updates for Thursday, Mar 5, 2009 at 06:40:05 PST

  • 2009-03-11 20:27:47 Okmok Advisory Yellow
  • 2009-03-11 20:27:47 Redoubt Advisory Yellow
  • 2009-03-11 20:27:47 Cleveland Advisory Yellow
  • 2009-03-11 20:07:45 Kilauea Watch Orange
  • 2009-03-03 01:05:40 Mauna Loa Advisory Yellow

Volcano Hazards Program Webcams page links to webcams at 19 of the 169 active volcanoes in the U-S.

Volcanic Activity Report: 4 March – 10 March 2009

Source: SI / USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report

New activity/unrest:

VoW: Rainier


Mount Rainier, at 4392 m the highest peak in the Cascade Range, forms a dramatic backdrop to the Puget Sound region. Large Holocene mudflows from collapse of this massive, heavily glaciated andesitic volcano have reached as far as the Puget Sound lowlands. The present summit was constructed within a large crater breached to the north during the a mid-Holocene eruption as a result of the collapse of a once-higher edifice. Several postglacial tephras have been erupted from Mount Rainier; tree-ring dating places the last recognizable tephra deposit during the 19th century. The present-day summit cone was formed during a major mixed-magma explosive eruption about 2200 years ago and is capped by two overlapping craters. Extensive hydrothermal alteration of the upper portion of the volcano has contributed to its structural weakness; an active thermal system has caused periodic melting on flank glaciers and produced an elaborate system of steam caves in the summit icecap.
Photo by Lee Siebert, 1983 (Smithsonian Institution). Caption: GVP

  • Country: United States
  • Region: Washington
  • Volcano Type: Stratovolcano
  • Last Known Eruption: 1894
  • Summit Elevation: 4392 m (14,409 feet)
  • Latitude: 46.853°N (46°51’10″N)
  • Longitude: 121.760°W ( 121°45’37″W)

Seattle_Rainier
Mount Rainier photographed from Seattle, WA. Photo dated July 2005. Source. Image may be subject to copyright.

Monthly report (subject to change) from

06/1969 (CSLP 53-69) Increased seismicity since September 1968

“Local activity has been increasing each month for the last three months. We have been averaging about 1-3 ‘Mt. Ranier Events’ per 5-day period with an increase to about five per 5-day period last September 1968. This April, the events increased to approximately five per 5-day period. In May, it increased to about six per 5-day period and as of 15 June the increase is to approximately 12 per 5-day period.”

Information Contact: N. Rasmussen, Seismology Station, University of Washington.

Cascade Range Current Update

CASCADES VOLCANO OBSERVATORY WEEKLY UPDATE
Friday, March 6, 2009 09:05 PST (Friday, March 6, 2009 17:05 UTC)

Source: USGS/Cascades Volcano Observatory, Vancouver, Washington

Cascade Range Volcanoes
Volcano Alert Level: NORMAL
Aviation Color Code: GREEN

Activity Update: All volcanoes in the Cascade Range are at normal levels of background seismicity. These include Mount Baker, Glacier Peak, Mount Rainier, Mount St. Helens, and Mount Adams in Washington State; Mount Hood, Mount Jefferson, Three Sisters, Newberry Volcano, and Crater Lake, in Oregon; and Medicine Lake volcano, Mount Shasta, and Lassen Peak in northern California.
Mount St. Helens has been at Volcano Alert Level NORMAL (Aviation Color Code GREEN) since July 10, 2008.

Recent Observations: Activity at all Cascade volcanoes remained at background levels. A few tiny earthquakes were detected at Mount St. Helens and Mount Shasta.

The U.S. Geological Survey and University of Washington continue to monitor these volcanoes closely and will issue additional updates and changes in alert level as warranted.

Introduction

Mount Rainier at 4393 meters (14,410 feet) the highest peak in the Cascade Range is a dormant volcano whose load of glacier ice exceeds that of any other mountain in the conterminous United States. This tremendous mass of rock and ice, in combination with great topographic relief, poses a variety of geologic hazards, both during inevitable future eruptions and during the intervening periods of repose.

The volcano’s past behavior is the best guide to possible future hazards. The written history of Mount Rainier encompasses the period since about A.D. 1820, during which time one or two small eruptions, several small debris avalanches, and many small lahars (debris flows originating on a volcano) have occurred. This time interval is far too brief to serve as a basis for estimating the future behavior of a volcano that is several hundreds of thousands of years old. Fortunately, prehistoric deposits record the types, magnitudes, and frequencies of past events, and show which areas were affected by them. At Mount Rainier, as at other Cascade volcanoes, deposits produced since the latest ice age (approximately during the past 10,000 years) are well preserved. Studies of these deposits reveal that we should anticipate potential hazards from some phenomena that only occur during eruptions and from others that may occur without eruptive activity. Tephra falls, pyroclastic flows and pyroclastic surges, ballistic projectiles, and lava flows occur only during eruptions. Debris avalanches, lahars, and floods commonly accompany eruptions, but can also occur during dormant periods.

This report (1) explains the various types of hazardous geologic phenomena that could occur at Mount Rainier, (2) shows areas that are most likely to be affected by the different phenomena, (3) estimates the likelihood that the areas will be affected, and (4) recommends actions that can be taken to protect lives and property. It builds upon and revises a similar document prepared by D.R. Crandell in 1973. Our revision was motivated by the availability of new information about Mount Rainier’s geologic history, by advances in the field of volcanology, and by the need to assess hazards in a more quantitative manner than in Crandell’s pioneering report. —R.P. Hoblitt, J.S. Walder, C.L. Driedger, K.M. Scott, P.T. Pringle, and J.W. Vallance, 1998, Volcano Hazards from Mount Rainier, Washington, Revised 1998: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 98-428

REPORT:
Volcano Hazards from Mount Rainier, Washington, Revised 1998

Mount Rainier at 4,393 meters (14,410 feet) the highest peak in the Cascade Range is a dormant volcano whose load of glacier ice exceeds that of any other mountain in the conterminous United States. This tremendous mass of rock and ice, in combination with great topographic relief, poses a variety of geologic hazards, both during inevitable future eruptions and during the intervening periods of repose. … This report (1) explains the various types of hazardous geologic phenomena that could occur at Mount Rainier, (2) shows areas that are most likely to be affected by the different phenomena, (3) estimates the likelihood that the areas will be affected, and (4) recommends actions that can be taken to protect lives and property. It builds upon and revises a similar document prepared by D.R. Crandell in 1973. Our revision was motivated by the availability of new information about Mount Rainier’s geologic history, by advances in the field of volcanology, and by the need to assess hazards in a more quantitative manner than in Crandell’s pioneering report. —Hoblitt, et.al., 1998

Ongoing Activity:

FEWW Forecast: Mount Rainier could erupt in the next 36 months with a probability of 0.65 [and in the next 18 months with a probability of >0.5]

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