Mutant Mosquito Swarms to Be Unleashed in Florida

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Global Disasters/ Significant Events

Genetically Modified Mosquitoes? What could possibly go wrong?!

Aedes aegypti, aka the yellow fever mosquito, is a vector for transmitting several tropical disease viruses including dengue fever, Chikungunya (CHIKV) and yellow fever.

This 2006 photograph depicts a female Aedes aegypti mosquito as she acquires  a blood meal from her human host, the biomedical photographer, James Gathany, at the Centers for Disease Control.  Dengue fever is caused by four virus strains spread by the mosquito Aedes aegypti. (Photo Credit: James Gathany/University of Notre Dame).

• Dengue fever is a virus-caused tropical disease that is spread by mosquitoes, especially Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus.

• Aedes aegypti mosquitoes are an invasive, domestic species with tropical and subtropical worldwide distribution that originated in Africa.

• The mosquito aquatic cycle, the life cycle from egg to larvae, pupae, and to an adult mosquito, takes 7-8 days and occurs in water.

• The life span for adult mosquitoes is about 3-4 weeks.

• Only the female mosquito bites for blood, which she needs to produce eggs.

• Female mosquitoes lay dozens of eggs up to 5 times during their life time.

• Florida scientists have proposed to unleash swarms of genetically modified male mosquitoes into the ecosystem in the hope that the mutant mosquitoes, ‘dubbed Frankenflies,’ would mate with healthy females and pass on their lab-engineered deadly birth defects.

• A Florida Keys resident has posted a petition, “Say No to Genetically Modified Mosquitoes Release in the Florida Keys,” on Change.org.

• “Even though the local community in the Florida Keys has spoken – we even passed an ordinance demanding more testing – Oxitec is trying to use a loophole by applying to the FDA for an ‘animal bug’ patent. This could mean these mutant mosquitoes could be released at any point against the wishes of locals and the scientific community. We need to make sure the FDA does not approve Oxitec’s patent.” The petition says.“Nearly all experiments with genetically-modified crops have eventually resulted in unintended consequences: superweeds more resistant to herbicides, mutated and resistant insects also collateral damage to ecosystems. A recent news story reported that the monarch butterfly population is down by half in areas where Roundup Ready GM crops are doused with ultra-high levels of herbicides that wipe out the monarch’s favorite milkweed plant.”

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Hurricane Ike Update 9/9

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2009: A New Climate

What if each time a storm struck your area it turned out to be a major hurricane?

Based on MSRB/CASF dynamic energy models and FEWW climate model there’s a high probability that:

1. The duration of Atlantic Hurricane season may be longer in 2009. It could start earlier than June 1, and end later than November 30. The FEWW model forecasts an 11-18 day increase in the season.

2. The storms could get stronger throughout the season. Our model indicates average increases in the maximum wind speeds of tropical storms as follows

• Category 5 hurricanes [Saffir-Simpson scale] : 16 to 19 percent increase
• Category 4 hurricanes : 14 to 17 percent
• Category 3 hurricanes : 8 to 11 percent
• Category 2 hurricanes : 4 to 6 percent
• Category 1 hurricanes : 2 to 4 percent

Now, back to Ike

Latest Headlines:

• More than 1 million are evacuated but there are four deaths as 20 inches of rain and 100-mph winds pound Cuba. Reports mount of earlier deaths and destruction in Haiti. Texas could be next. (LA Times)

• Oil and natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico remained at a trickle on Tuesday as Hurricane Ike moved toward the region, triggering the second storm-related wave of offshore platform evacuations and production shutdowns in less than two weeks. (Reuters).

• Some two million Cubans had been driven from their homes by the storm’s winds topping 130 km/h (80 mph) more than 24 hours after it first made landfall on Sunday. (AFP)

• Ike earlier caused 66 deaths in Haiti and reportedly damaged 80% of the homes in the Turks and Caicos Islands. (BBC)

Latest NCEP/Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) Forecast Positions. Credit: CIMSS – Space Science and Engineering Center – University of Wisconsin- Madison:

CENTER OF IKE APPROACHING WESTERN CUBA

• Source: NHC
• Forecaster: Franklin
• Date and Time: Sept 9, 2008 at 12:00UTC

• Location: At 12:00UTC the center of hurricane Ike was located near latitude 22.4 north, longitude 82.4 west, or about 65 Km south of Havana, Cuba.
  

• Category and Wind Speed: At 130 km/hr, Ike is a Category one hurricane  on FEWW Hurricane Scale.  Some strengthening may occur this morning before Ike moves over Western Cuba.  Additional strengthening is forecast to occur once Ike reaches the Gulf of Mexico.
• Direction: Ike is moving toward the west-northwest at 20 km/hr and  is expected to continue in that direction in the next 48 hrs.  The center of Ike should reach the south coast of western Cuba in the next few hours, and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico by this evening.
• Breadth: Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 355 km from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 km. 
  
• Estimated minimum central pressure: 965mb (28.50 inches).

• Storm surge flooding: Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels, along with large and dangerous battering waves, can be expected in areas of onshore winds east of Ike along the southern coast of  Cuba.
• Storm surge flooding of up to 90cm, along with Large and dangerous waves, are possible in the Florida Keys.
• Large swells generated by Ike will continue to affect portions of the southeast United States coast during the next couple of days. These waves could generate dangerous and life-threatening rip
  currents.

• Rainfall: Ike is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 25cm over Cuba, with isolated maximum amounts of up to 50cm possible. These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flash
  floods and mud slides over mountainous terrain. Rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10cm are possible over the Cayman Islands. Rainfall accumulations of 2.5 to 8cm are possible over the Florida Keys.
• Isolated tornadoes and waterspouts are possible over the Florida Keys and extreme south Florida today.

Fay May Strengthen to Hurricane Force

LATEST UPDATE: Fay Heads North Toward SW Florida Coast

Tropical Storm Fay Intermediate Advisory No. 9a
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl AL062008
800 pm EDT Sun Aug 17, 2008

Highlights:

• Fay is moving slower. She has not strengthened yet.
• A hurricane watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from south of Ocean Reef to Key West including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay and along the Florida mainland from Card Sound Bridge westward to Tarpon Springs.
• A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 36 hours.
• A hurricane watch remains in effect for Cuba from the provinces of La Habana and Ciudad de la Habana eastward to Sancti Spiritus.
• A tropical storm warning is in effect for the provinces of Cuba from Camaguey westward.

• A TS warning remains in effect for Cayman Brac and Little Cayman.
• A TS warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys From Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay.
• A TS warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

TS Fay Moving Over Cuba

Western Atlantic Infrared Image – Realtime Satellite Images From GOES – NOAA

• A TS watch remains in effect for the southeast coast of Florida from Ocean Reef northward to Jupiter inlet and for lake Okeechobee. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area generally within 36 hours.

• A TS watch remains in effect for Grand Cayman Island.
• Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula the northwestern Bahamas and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Fay.
• For storm information specific to your area including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
• At 8:00 pm EDT 00:00 UTC the center of TS Fay was located near latitude 21.0 North, Longitude 80.3 west or about 200 miles (330 km) southeast of Havana Cuba and about 265 miles (430km) south-southeast of Key West, Florida.
• Fay has been moving slowly and somewhat erratically toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/hr). A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight with a turn toward the north expected Monday or Monday night. On the forecast track, Fay is expected cross Western Cuba overnight tonight or Monday morning and move near the Florida Keys Monday or Monday night.

Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities.

• Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/hr) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Fay could be approaching hurricane strength when it reaches western Cuba tonight or early Monday and when it approaches the Florida Keys Monday.
• Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.
• The minimum central pressure estimated is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
• Storm tides of 2 to 4 feet above normal are possible along the south coast of Cuba in the tropical storm warning area in areas of onshore winds. Tides of 2 to 4 ft above normal are possible in the Florida Keys in the warning area.
• Isolated tornadoes are possible late tonight and Monday over the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula.
• Fay is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over much of Cuba with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible over Grand Cayman and over the central Bahamas. Heavy rain may
• Begin to affect the Florida Keys and south Florida tonight and into Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible for the Florida Keys and south Florida.
• Repeating the 8:00 pm EDT position: 21.0 N, 80.3 W.
• Movement toward west-northwest near 10 mph.
• Maximum sustained winds 50 mph. Minimum central pressure 1001 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11:00 pm EDT. — Forecaster Pasch/Roberts

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