Japan Region Earthquakes: Currently Valid Forecasts by FIRE-EARTH
-
TOKYO AREA QUAKE WARNING Posted by feww on March 16, 2011
A Note to Seismologists at Tokyo University and Tohoku University, Japan
FIRE-EARTH MODERATORS STRONGLY URGE YOU TO PRODUCE ORIGINAL RESEARCH AND REFRAIN FROM PIGGYBACK RIDING ON OUR FORECASTS.
ONCE AGAIN, YOU HAVE MADE US EXTREMELY RELUCTANT TO POST ANY FUTURE EARTHQUAKE FORECAST.
Staff at Research Center for Prediction of Earthquakes & Volcanic Eruptions, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University are strongly advised to focus on probability of the next major earthquake in China.
Related Links:
- Tectonics Update – January 28: Large Quake Measuring about 8.3Mw Could Strike Near Iwaki, Japan: FIRE-EARTH – [Suspended]
- Earthquake Forecast: Tokyo, Japan Posted by feww on May 18, 2009
- Tectonics Update – March 10
- Fukushima at increased earthquake risk [European Geosciences Union]
- Big Tokyo Quake Forecast by 2016 [Researchers at Tokyo University’s Earthquake Research Institute]
FIRE-EARTH Forecast
Large Earthquake Could Strike Tokyo Area
Megaqauke measuring up to 9.2Mw could strike Tokyo / Chiba Area: FIRE-EARTH Forecast [Posted by feww on March 16, 2011]
Details of Earthquake Forecast:
- Magnitude: 8.8Mw [Uncertainty= ±0.4Mw]
- Location: 50 – 150km radius of Tokyo Bay Area
- Depth: 24km [Uncertainty= N/A]
- Occurrence Time:
- Between now and November 2011 [Probability = 0.70]
- Between December 2011 and October 2012 [Probability = 0.64]
- Between November 2012 and December 2016 [Probability = 0.78]
- Notes:
- This forecast may be affected by SEISMIC CHAIN REACTIONS IN JAPAN REGION
- For background, see summary of FIRE-EARTH Forecasts: Japan Earthquakes Posted on March 13, 2011
- NEXT MAJOR TECTONICS EVENT COULD OCCUR IN THE U.S.
- NEW FORECAST: As Many as 4 Large Earthquakes Could Strike Japan Region by 2015
- Waves of Intense Seismic Activity Could Strike Eastern Honshu, Japan
- Fire-Earth Quake Forecast: Japan Earthquakes
- Fire Earth Model shows that Japan region could be struck by up to 4 additional strong to large earthquakes possibly this year/early next year, one of which could be a catastrophic event.
- FIRE-EARTH forecasts intense seismic activity in Japan Region during the 2011 – 2015 period.
Tokyo University Seismologists
70% chance of big Tokyo earthquake ‘within 4 yrs’
The Yomiuri Shimbun — There is a 70 percent probability the Tokyo metropolitan area will be hit directly by a strong earthquake of magnitude-7 level within four years, according to data compiled by a University of Tokyo research team.
The preliminary calculations conducted by a team from the university’s Earthquake Research Institute were based on intensified seismic activity in the area after the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11.
The findings are more dire than a similar estimate by the central government’s Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, which states there is a 70 percent chance a quake of the same scale will hit the southern Kanto region, including the metropolitan area, within 30 years.
The central government’s Central Disaster Management Council assumes 18 different hypocenters of magnitude-7 level earthquakes, such as in southern Ibaraki Prefecture and the Tachikawa fault zone.
If a magnitude-7.3 earthquake occurs directly under northern Tokyo Bay, as many as 11,000 people are expected to die and about 850,000 buildings to be rendered totally unusable or destroyed by fire.
According to the Meteorological Agency’s observations, after the March 11 disaster, earthquakes of magnitude 3 to 6 occurred an average of 1.48 times a day in the metropolitan area through December. This was about five times the pre-disaster average.
Prof. Naoshi Hirata of the university’s research institute and others based their calculations on the rule of thumb that the frequency of earthquakes is inversely proportional to their strength. For every increase in magnitude of one, the frequency of their occurrence falls by 90 percent.
The metropolitan area was hit by the magnitude-8 level Great Kanto Earthquake in 1923. Five weaker but still serious earthquakes of magnitude-7 level also hit an area extending from southern Ibaraki Prefecture to the Uraga Channel over a period of about 120 years.
The government’s earthquake headquarters obtained its quake estimate data based on the intervals of these quakes in the past. The data did not incorporate the increased seismic activity after the March 11 disaster.
Experts believe seismic activity in the metropolitan area has been intensified by changes in the movements of the Earth’s crust since March 11.
“Intensified seismic activity will continue from several to 10 more years,” Hirata said. “It’s highly probable a strong quake with a magnitude of about 7 will occur during that time. (Jan. 24, 2012)
Fire Earth 